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*** Official 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** Oscar (1 Viewer)

Mandatory evacuations along the stretch of 30A east of PCB. I know a bunch of people with homes down there. They're pretty nervous about this storm.

 
SIL and niece live in FT.Walton beach.  Niece has 3 young kids tried to get them to come down here but they say they are going to ride it out.

 
Aircraft flew the west edge of the storm this morning to get readings on the shear strength and dry air mass that is present which could determine track heading.  This will really help dial in the landfall guidance and where mandatory evacs should go.  

Should be graded Cat2 at noon today in the 960mb range.  Getting some serious juice right now.

 
Glad our fall break is a weak later this year as we are planned to head to the gulf coast next week.  I know others evacuating today whose fall break is this week.

Hoping the area isn't hit too bad...will change plans if needed and already planning on taking extra supplies down to donate if we still head down Sunday...and finding a place to volunteer a day or two during the trip.

Also hopeful this hurricane disperses that red tide crap up...

 
Track guidance more West than was suggested.  Now looking slightly west of PCB putting PCB in the NE quadrant.  Models are starting to come into agreement here on track, and intensity is still TBD.  

 
culdeus said:
Track guidance more West than was suggested.  Now looking slightly west of PCB putting PCB in the NE quadrant.  Models are starting to come into agreement here on track, and intensity is still TBD.  
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Wow, that looks like landfall around the Rosemary Beach/Seacrest area. We vacation there a few times a year. Not good.

 
Workhorse said:
Wow, that looks like landfall around the Rosemary Beach/Seacrest area. We vacation there a few times a year. Not good.
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Went there for the first time this past summer.  Seems like even a little storm surge would be awful for that area.  Hope I'm wrong. 

 
jb1020 said:
Went there for the first time this past summer.  Seems like even a little storm surge would be awful for that area.  Hope I'm wrong. 
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They did ok with Dennis.  

At Seaside it knocked down the cliffs and when they went back they sunk in 80-100 foot long steel Ibeams to give support in the case of another event.  

Most of the houses are built to MH level storm surge lines.  Even if you have surge from the bay side and an overwash condition the homes should stay dry.  Most of the development was post Dennis and the code was for the most part set at the Dennis + (Some margin).  

What's left of the sand :shrug:   that's a big concern as Navvarro beach (spelling?) only really recovered with trucked in sand.  

 
They're talking about peak seas of almost 40' in the northeastern Gulf tonight into tomorrow morning. Stuff like that makes me think what a living nightmare it must have been to be a sailor in the wooden sailing ship days. You're some Spaniard cruising along with a ship full of gold in the boring, calm waters between Mexico and Florida, and then, out of nowhere, you're fighting for your life in 100+ mph winds and 40-foot waves. 

 
I'm afraid there will be a lot of people left riding this out.  It's happened so fast, and it's bombing out so quickly that there is a chance maybe less mobile people like elderly and the likes simply can't get their act together.  

Storm has dropped 8mb in 3 hours.  If it was moving any slower you'd be looking at an all time monster.  

Because it's moving so fast the odds are great that even NC/SC see Cat 1 type winds.  

 
culdeus said:
I'm afraid there will be a lot of people left riding this out.  It's happened so fast, and it's bombing out so quickly that there is a chance maybe less mobile people like elderly and the likes simply can't get their act together.  

Storm has dropped 8mb in 3 hours.  If it was moving any slower you'd be looking at an all time monster.  

Because it's moving so fast the odds are great that even NC/SC see Cat 1 type winds.  
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That pressure drop is huge, especially as it tracks over even warmer water.  The possibility of CAT 4 at landfall is rather sickening.  

 
culdeus said:
I'm afraid there will be a lot of people left riding this out.  It's happened so fast, and it's bombing out so quickly that there is a chance maybe less mobile people like elderly and the likes simply can't get their act together.  

Storm has dropped 8mb in 3 hours.  If it was moving any slower you'd be looking at an all time monster.  

Because it's moving so fast the odds are great that even NC/SC see Cat 1 type winds.  
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2Young2BBald said:
That pressure drop is huge, especially as it tracks over even warmer water.  The possibility of CAT 4 at landfall is rather sickening.  
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:eek:

:popcorn:

 
2Young2BBald said:
That pressure drop is huge, especially as it tracks over even warmer water.  The possibility of CAT 4 at landfall is rather sickening.  
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The way the categories set up are not super relevant here.  Cat 3 and Cat 4 could have for all intents the same effect at different pressures and winds.  It's super confusing, but NOAA/NHS continue to use this method.  The pressure drop that continues suggest Cat 4 strength with Cat 3 surface winds at landfall.  Once you are a Major, you are a Major.  That's the way to look at it.  

 
pressure down to 946.  Gonna be a cat4 soon, probably already is.

I love the area that’s gonna get hit and it makes me sad to imagine what’s gonna happen to that area.  There’s a slim chance our favorite beaches are gonna get hit with a Cat5.

 
For the folks that intentionally stayed behind to ignore evac orders, there's this

@JeffLindner1: Sobering wording from @NWSTallahassee on the expected storm surge damage in Apalachee Bay #flwx https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1049842528986562560/photo/1

And this

@DrRickKnabb: This isn’t going to be like past western FL panhandle/AL majors like Dennis, Ivan, Opal, Eloise. And it’s not like Hermine, Kate farther east but weaker. #Michael will make new history for central Panhandle, Big Bend. Some of you could get water and wind worse than ever before. https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1049843738623791104/photo/1

 
JaxBill said:
For the folks that intentionally stayed behind to ignore evac orders, there's this

@JeffLindner1: Sobering wording from @NWSTallahassee on the expected storm surge damage in Apalachee Bay #flwx https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1049842528986562560/photo/1

And this

@DrRickKnabb: This isn’t going to be like past western FL panhandle/AL majors like Dennis, Ivan, Opal, Eloise. And it’s not like Hermine, Kate farther east but weaker. #Michael will make new history for central Panhandle, Big Bend. Some of you could get water and wind worse than ever before. https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1049843738623791104/photo/1
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This one is sneaking up on people.  A lot of storms over the past decade have hit Cat4/5 status way out in the sea (which causes propel to leave) and then slowly weakened to 2/3 on impact.  Ivan was in tatters when it hit.

This one is rapidly intensifying as it comes ashore.  Scary.

 
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shader said:
pressure down to 946.  Gonna be a cat4 soon, probably already is.

I love the area that’s gonna get hit and it makes me sad to imagine what’s gonna happen to that area.  There’s a slim chance our favorite beaches are gonna get hit with a Cat5.
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NHC calling a Cat 4 landfall now.  The first ever in the panhandle.

 
culdeus said:
NHC calling a Cat 4 landfall now.  The first ever in the panhandle.
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I hope everyone has left.  The good news is that it’s a bigtime touristy area and not a ton of people live there.  Bad news is that it’s gonna do a ton of damage and cost a lot of money.

 
Really starting to worry about SIL and my niece and her kids now.  They are in Ft. Walton beach about 60 miles west of Panama City.  They have rode them about before but this sounds worse than anything they have seen before.  I tried to get them to come down here but I couldn't persuade them.  The youngest is allergic to dogs and cats.  I told them we could figure it out but told us thanks but no.

 
rustycolts said:
Really starting to worry about SIL and my niece and her kids now.  They are in Ft. Walton beach about 60 miles west of Panama City.  They have rode them about before but this sounds worse than anything they have seen before.  I tried to get them to come down here but I couldn't persuade them.  The youngest is allergic to dogs and cats.  I told them we could figure it out but told us thanks but no.
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If you’re in the cone, you should get outta there imo 

 
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shader said:
If you’re in the cone, you should get outta there imo 
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That is what I told them.  The thing is they are economically disadvantaged(which is a nice way to say dirt poor)like many in Fl work in service industry.  They probably did not have the money to get here.  I told them I would pay for gas and Hotel if they could get here.  Guess they are just too proud.  Shame really.  My wife is freaking out with worry. I tried to calm her a little by saying they are to the West of the storm which is a good thing.  To be honest though I think they are in a bad situation.

 
shader said:
This one is sneaking up on people.  A lot of storms over the past decade have hit Cat4/5 status way out in the sea (which causes propel to leave) and then slowly weakened to 2/3 on impact.  Ivan was in tatters when it hit.

This one is rapidly intensifying as it comes ashore.  Scary.
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Yep, catching a lot of people off guard.

 
rustycolts said:
Really starting to worry about SIL and my niece and her kids now.  They are in Ft. Walton beach about 60 miles west of Panama City.  They have rode them about before but this sounds worse than anything they have seen before.  I tried to get them to come down here but I couldn't persuade them.  The youngest is allergic to dogs and cats.  I told them we could figure it out but told us thanks but no.
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Sobering graphic. I hope they make it through okay.

@NWSTallahassee: Here are the wind gusts to expect in our area: https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1049904762622304258/photo/1

 
With the westward movement my in-laws are in the crosshairs in Panama City. My husband asked if they wanted to come to our house but his sister and her fam evacuated to them so they are all staying in pc. I’m not surprised. They’ve never left before. 

 
Feeling the winds here in Tampa this morning.  Hoping all my fellow Floridians stay safe and have heeded the warnings for evacuations in the panhandle (storm surge is going to be awful).  This hurricane is a bully.

 
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Heading for the airport to fly to Birmingham in a bit.  With how it picked up over night, I expect I'll see damages I haven't seen since Andrew.  Thinking about Katrina, we couldn't get in until about 5 days after landfall, so I suspect I won't be anywhere near the beach until Monday, but they will try and get us progressively closer each day based on lodging availability.  I'll try and post general conditions and gas availability as I head in for those that evacuated.  

 
Still strengthening. Starting east turn. Panama city looks to get direct hit of a strong cat 4.  Cat 5 not off the table but unlikely. 20 25% chance now given. 

This is a bad heading. A slight weakness in the west Ridge puts him on FWB and PCB catches the worst of it.  

Need the ridge to hit hard and push this thing off to east really soon. 

 
Damn... Stay safe, people- all the best to those in the way of this. Really hoping it doesn't live up to these terrible expectations.

 
If you are in spot where the storm surge might get you.  Even if its a remote chance then GTFO asap.  If however you have a generator, tarps, food, water etc and feel good about your roof I can see the argument for staying.  But that is still a slim one.  

 
culdeus said:
That last air force pass has it more like a 70% chance of cat5.  Rapidlyntensifying right now. 
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This thing has gotten out of control quickly. I hope people listened to the evacuation orders. Florence petering out from a wind perspective probably doesn't help as far as people listening to the warnings.

 
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