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Official 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Thread (1 Viewer)

culdeus said:
This is bad advice. Listen to the nhc. Trying to armchair qb some model runs is a quick way to find yourself in a bad spot. Trust in our lord Levi if you need another source
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I'm pretty sure his postings are for entertainment purposes only and not to be taken as fact.
 
culdeus said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Wingnut said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.
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Can you post a link to where you get your updates and latest track?
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I've been pulling data from everywhere. This is the first time I've really tracked with such an interest, so I'll need to make sure I can find a better data source in the future, but I'm basically comparing spaghetti model run over run and watching the trends in them. Giving more credence to the trends that have been correct than the ones that are shifting.

I've been pulling the spaghetti models from here:


Also obviously watching the GFS and Euro tracks, giving more thought to the Euro track as well since the GFS was forecast more west and it appears the Euro might've been more correct. While that model was a little silly with the landfall and run up the coast 2 days ago, it's path to landfall appears to be much closer than GFS.

Overall, spaghetti model over spaghetti model keeps making these small shifts south for landfall. If that trend continues, then a Naples/Venice landfall and track around Lake Okeechobee would be close.

There is one homerun that is a newer model which shows the storm going south of peninsula completely, but that one seems extremely unlikely at this juncture.

ETA:

I find comparing the spaghetti models is the best way and mapping the trends run over run as opposed to just taking the track and cone that the Hurricane Center gives you provides more info and a better picture. I'm fairly new at tracking these, but if the trends continue, then a Cat 3 hits Venice/Naples area, imo.
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This is bad advice. Listen to the nhc. Trying to armchair qb some model runs is a quick way to find yourself in a bad spot. Trust in our lord Levi if you need another source
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I didn't say ignore the NHC, nor did I provide advice. He asked where I'm getting sources and I provided links to the models and told him how I'm interpreting data. Obviously anyone in the path needs to either evacuate if they're in the zone, or prep accordingly if they're not. I'm just saying there are ways to look at and interpret data. That's simply what I'm doing to make an educated guess where the path might be.
 
Projections still slicing east with direct hit just north of Ft Myers as a Cat 4.

Not set in stone but Tampa looking to escape a direct hit.
 
Squally weather here in Miami Beach. The first outer bands, mostly heavy rain, hit yesterday. This latest squall was a little windy, maybe 25 mph. We're in the NE quadrant with some tornado potential.
 
Hurricane Watch turned into a Hurricane Warning in Okeechobee County in the 5pm update. That's the direction the models have been going in. Please just stay out of Palm Beach, my buffer is just about done.

Candidly, while anecdotal, this county isn't very prepared for a hurricane right now.

​

 
Citrus County here. Had a nice outside feeder vein hit us, woke me up from my afternoon nap.
Feel fairly safe here north of Tampa in the highlands with underground utes.
Crystal River my neighbors are in a bad flood situation.
 
Was just texting with my niece in Lee County (Cape coral) - looking like worst case scenario for them wrt storm surge. Girls are off at college, husband (local Fox news producer) is spending the night at the station, she’s home alone with the dog. All he friends & family are in the evacuation zone as well so nowhere to go.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Was just texting with my niece in Lee County (Cape coral) - looking like worst case scenario for them wrt storm surge. Girls are off at college, husband (local Fox news producer) is spending the night at the station, she’s home alone with the dog. All he friends & family are in the evacuation zone as well so nowhere to go.
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How far from the Gulf or a waterway conected to the Gulf is she? In Dade and Broward, a few shelters allow pets.
 
gump said:
fantasycurse42 said:
Capella said:
The Commish said:
Don't ever drain my pool :shrug: Though, it's 100% true that if you don't have water flowing you'll screw the pump up in a few minutes.
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So run the pump?
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Most of the info I have gotten has said to shut the pump.
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Yea, I confirmed this with a pool builder friend…turn it off.
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Interesting...did he say why? I know little about the pool situation...just follow the direction of our pool guy and learn little bits/pieces that way.
 
Osaurus said:
Captain Cranks said:
Projections still slicing east with direct hit just north of Ft Myers as a Cat 4.

Not set in stone but Tampa looking to escape a direct hit.
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Capella said:
Looks like Tampa Bay may be spared again.
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:excited:
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Looks like the shield worked again. Thank goodness for Tamba Bay. Not so much for the Ft Myers area. Donna Charlie now Ian they can't catch a break. At least my favorite place in the state is not going to get it this time. Poor Cedar Key seems to be a magnet for these things.

Really kind of lucky where I live it would take a direct hit of New Symrna Beach or Crystal River and then head directly East or West to be worst case scenario for us. I doubt that will ever happen.
 
Weird we drive through fort myers today and even stopped at a wawas. Nobody seemed bothered, no issues getting gas, one lady even asked my son why he had the day off of school (she probably was just an idiot). And now they are in the crosshairs?
 
Important: all indications are that Tampa and possibly Orlando may see *serious* inland flooding with a widespread 15 to 20 inches likely.

A few places could see more than 2 feet of rain.

Rainfall rates of 3 inches per hour will lead to serious, dangerous flooding.


Geez man, this is not a state that can afford two feet of rain.
 
I’m guessing landfall somewhere near Port Charlotte as of now. See what the 11pm update has to say. If these outer bands are any indication, HFS is this thing a monster. I got smashed from 8-10.
 
fantasycurse42 said:
I’m guessing landfall somewhere near Port Charlotte as of now. See what the 11pm update has to say. If these outer bands are any indication, HFS is this thing a monster. I got smashed from 8-10.
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Not sure how close you are but Fort Lauderdale was very loud during that time period too. My wife and I both said why the F did we come down here.
 
kodycutter said:
Capella said:
Weird we drive through fort myers today and even stopped at a wawas. Nobody seemed bothered, no issues getting gas, one lady even asked my son why he had the day off of school (she probably was just an idiot). And now they are in the crosshairs?
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As a guy who grew up in NJ, hope you got some wawas hoagies, be safe.
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why are we talking about hoags in here but not in the mechanic thread where they belong take that to the bank brohans
 
Capella said:
fantasycurse42 said:
I’m guessing landfall somewhere near Port Charlotte as of now. See what the 11pm update has to say. If these outer bands are any indication, HFS is this thing a monster. I got smashed from 8-10.
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Not sure how close you are but Fort Lauderdale was very loud during that time period too. My wife and I both said why the F did we come down here.
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Friends in Deerfield and Delray sent videos that looked like hell. I’m north of that and it rained like I’ve never seen in 2.5 years of living in FL. We were under tornado watch the entire time too (just got another one). Really have to feel terrible for anyone from Naples to Tampa bc they’re going to get slammed. This is a serious storm and anyone in any of the evac zones needs to GTFO now.

I hear the same stuff from a lot of Floridians “just another storm” “meh” “whatever”

I really hope everyone is taking this thing serious bc if those are the outer bands, I don’t want to know what it’s like closer to the center and 5-6x more intense than that.
 
SWC said:
kodycutter said:
Capella said:
Weird we drive through fort myers today and even stopped at a wawas. Nobody seemed bothered, no issues getting gas, one lady even asked my son why he had the day off of school (she probably was just an idiot). And now they are in the crosshairs?
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As a guy who grew up in NJ, hope you got some wawas hoagies, be safe.
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why are we talking about hoags in here but not in the mechanic thread where they belong take that to the bank brohans
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Brohan, i'm looking at this storm coming towards me. looks like maybe pulling a little south, if i can let off some steam with a sandwich joke.... i will take that to the bank.
 
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Reactions: SWC
fantasycurse42 said:
Capella said:
Why turn the pump off? I didn’t know to do that.

Made it to Fort Lauderdale.
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2 reasons as I know, but maybe Gump knows more...

1) Damage to the pump from external water (sounds weird, but read it in a few places)
2) If you drain below the skimmer, you'll burn your pump out.
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I always drained mine based on how much rain they anticipated. I also turned off the pump and disconnected the power, which came in handy when my yard flooded enough that the entire pump was under water.

Nathan R. Jessep said:
Ian doesn't even get a thread title credit? :ph34r:

Take care, Florida, FBGs! Got a couch and a fridge full of beer if anyone needs to bug out.

ETA: oh yea, remembered MJ said he couldn't log into his account for now
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Yes, very frustrating.
 
"We are going to see a CAT 3 push inland close to Arcadia. These effects are going to be bad... with Hurricane winds reaching Orlando. Coastal landfall will be a CAT 4."

Mikes weather page
 
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