Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.
Can you post a link to where you get your updates and latest track?
I've been pulling data from everywhere. This is the first time I've really tracked with such an interest, so I'll need to make sure I can find a better data source in the future, but I'm basically comparing spaghetti model run over run and watching the trends in them. Giving more credence to the trends that have been correct than the ones that are shifting.
I've been pulling the spaghetti models from here:
Also obviously watching the GFS and Euro tracks, giving more thought to the Euro track as well since the GFS was forecast more west and it appears the Euro might've been more correct. While that model was a little silly with the landfall and run up the coast 2 days ago, it's path to landfall appears to be much closer than GFS.
Overall, spaghetti model over spaghetti model keeps making these small shifts south for landfall. If that trend continues, then a Naples/Venice landfall and track around Lake Okeechobee would be close.
There is one homerun that is a newer model which shows the storm going south of peninsula completely, but that one seems extremely unlikely at this juncture.
ETA:
I find comparing the spaghetti models is the best way and mapping the trends run over run as opposed to just taking the track and cone that the Hurricane Center gives you provides more info and a better picture. I'm fairly new at tracking these, but if the trends continue, then a Cat 3 hits Venice/Naples area, imo.