Official 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Thread (1 Viewer)

[DA RAIDERS]

I can’t find that chart/graph detailing how far out wind speeds extend from center; ie: hurricane force this many miles/tropical storm that many miles

Anyone know what I’m looking for and where to find?

The little map squares above the main noaa hurricane Ian site have what you want.

 

[culdeus]

South Florida checking in here. This hurricane season has been very mild to say the least. Waiting out the last few weeks of the season to see if we have any late development.

You realize 98L got on the notification virtually at the exact same time you posted this right?

I find it amazing that a solid week ago there was a fart forming and it instantly got tracked to South Florida as something bad. The math and science these teams bring to this is astounding.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

We were staying with my cousin - on the water in Palm Harbor.

Beautiful day at RayJay I must say and a fantastic weekend.

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

South Florida checking in here. This hurricane season has been very mild to say the least. Waiting out the last few weeks of the season to see if we have any late development.

You realize 98L got on the notification virtually at the exact same time you posted this right?

I find it amazing that a solid week ago there was a fart forming and it instantly got tracked to South Florida as something bad. The math and science these teams bring to this is astounding.

Same here. I try to somewhat educate myself by listening to Levi at TropicalTidbits.com but the science is still damn impressive (because I don't understand much of it). Metereology will never be an exact science but damn, the progress over the past 20-25 years has been stunning. Radar, models, big data, everything....

 

[SoBeDad]

Schools closed in Palm Beach County tomorrow.

What I don’t understand is why we don’t make much larger investments to figure out how to destroy these storms on our own.

Even if it did cost trillions, in the end as a long-term investment, it makes a ton of sense.

Yea I've wondered the same thing. I wonder what a powerful concussion bomb dropped in the eye would do? Probably a dumb idea I'm not the brightest tool in the shed.

Cloud seeding with

Schools closed in Palm Beach County tomorrow.

What I don’t understand is why we don’t make much larger investments to figure out how to destroy these storms on our own.

Even if it did cost trillions, in the end as a long-term investment, it makes a ton of sense.

Yea I've wondered the same thing. I wonder what a powerful concussion bomb dropped in the eye would do? Probably a dumb idea I'm not the brightest tool in the shed.

They tried cloud seeding, which didn't work. IIRC, liability was also a concern. Imagine if a storm became more powerful after human intervention.

>>Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical cyclones by flying aircraft into them and seeding with silver iodide. The project was run by the United States Government from 1962 to 1983. The hypothesis was that the silver iodide would cause supercooled water in the storm to freeze, disrupting the inner structure of the hurricane, and this led to seeding several Atlantic hurricanes. However, it was later shown that this hypothesis was incorrect. It was determined that most hurricanes do not contain enough supercooled water for cloud seeding to be effective. Additionally, researchers found that unseeded hurricanes often undergo the same structural changes that were expected from seeded hurricanes. This finding called Stormfury's successes into question, as the changes reported now had a natural explanation.<<

 

[eoMMan]

And those islands below ‘Tampa’ are the Jeter/Brady neighborhoods…

I just read yesterday Jeter's mansion was purchased for $22m and they're going to tear it down so they can build three houses there.

It’s on 3 lots…the house was not attractive…

I heard the house had herpes, allegedly.

 

[Wingnut]

This will be my first hurricane as a homeowner.

Which county are you in?

Hillsborough. So flooding (and lack of power/internet) are the biggest concerns.

Hillsborough here too, bought my house 4 years ago, this is the first major hurricane for me as a homeowner as well...and I'm getting more nervous by the hour. This is the storm Tampa Bay has been fearing for 100 years.

Stay safe everyone.

 

[Captain Cranks]

Man, I'm brilliant.

'Hey, Cranks. You should mow the lawn before the storm and the yard is too wet.'

Turns out it was already too wet and my zero turn got stuck. Good times.

 

[2Young2BBald]

I know it's been discussed here before, but they really need to change the way storms are categorized. Wind damage can be devastating, but moving/rising water is even more powerful. Cats based solely on wind speeds can be misleading. I'm not smart enough to know how to combine all of the elements into a number, but I think the way we describe storms now doesn't paint a true picture of what can happen. It wasn't the wind that hurt the Houston area so badly a few years ago - it was the freaking 48" of rain.

Anyway, stay safe down there guys & gals. If anyone wants/needs to jailbreak to the Mid-Atlantic, I have room at my place.

AccuWeather has attempted to do so with their RealImpact Scale. I get their bulletins pushed to me and find their scale much more fitting. I just got a new bulletin just a bit ago and its a 4 out of 5 for Western FL at the moment. I deploy to natural disasters full time and am packed and ready to go. Stay safe all and heed all warnings!

 

[Captain Cranks]

Really seems to be headed towards Ft Myers at this point.

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

Key West is getting some storm surge already so of course you need to get your picture by the Southernmost Point buoy....

https://youtu.be/5-GFiZtzDmQ

 

[Wingnut]

Hitting south of Tampa will lessen storm surge significantly, the winds will be coming from the east and will push water out vs forcing it up into the bay.

 

[Osaurus]

Man, I'm brilliant.

'Hey, Cranks. You should mow the lawn before the storm and the yard is too wet.'

Turns out it was already too wet and my zero turn got stuck. Good times.

Managed to get mine done. Only stalled once

 

[Captain Cranks]

Man, I'm brilliant.

'Hey, Cranks. You should mow the lawn before the storm and the yard is too wet.'

Turns out it was already too wet and my zero turn got stuck. Good times.

Managed to get mine done. Only stalled once

Nice. This is the third time in a year I've gotten stuck and I've learned the trick to get it out in about 20 minutes. First time, I got it wedged between my hedges and my neighbor's fence and it was stuck there for 3 weeks thanks to relentless rain and my stupidity.

 

[eoMMan]

Really seems to be headed towards Ft Myers at this point.

Lee County (where Fort Myers is) issued mandatory evacuations for zones A and zones B this morning. I understand the storm jut recently moving a little more southeast but that’s late for a mandatory evacuation notice, no?

I’m in zone c and riding it out.

 

[Captain Cranks]

Really seems to be headed towards Ft Myers at this point.

Lee County (where Fort Myers is) issued mandatory evacuations for zones A and zones B this morning. I understand the storm jut recently moving a little more southeast but that’s late for a mandatory evacuation notice, no?

I’m in zone c and riding it out.

It does seem late but the forecasted path has really sliced east the last 36 hours. Most of the models on Sunday were shooting directly north through the gulf into the Panhandle.

 

[ChiefD]

Man, I'm brilliant.

'Hey, Cranks. You should mow the lawn before the storm and the yard is too wet.'

Turns out it was already too wet and my zero turn got stuck. Good times.

Managed to get mine done. Only stalled once

Nice. This is the third time in a year I've gotten stuck and I've learned the trick to get it out in about 20 minutes. First time, I got it wedged between my hedges and my neighbor's fence and it was stuck there for 3 weeks thanks to relentless rain and my stupidity.

Should have gotten the "at least one turn" mower.

 

[Wingnut]

I-4 east bound and I-75 northbound are packed and moving at about 3 mph around Tampa right now.

Leaving now would be a nightmare.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I’ve already had to backwash the pool to prevent patio flooding, tons of rain by me.

Any pool guys in here? Thinking about draining pool by a foot and shutting the pump. Just fill it back up afterwards, plus if power goes out, then I can’t drain, generator isn’t attached to pool panel. Anything wrong with that? Forecast for 6-12 inches by me.

 

[Wingnut]

Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.

Can you post a link to where you get your updates and latest track?

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I’ve already had to backwash the pool to prevent patio flooding, tons of rain by me.

Any pool guys in here? Thinking about draining pool by a foot and shutting the pump. Just fill it back up afterwards, plus if power goes out, then I can’t drain, generator isn’t attached to pool panel. Anything wrong with that? Forecast for 6-12 inches by me.

Not a pool guy but when I left my cousin's house yesterday he was planning to run the pump to fill it all the way to the top. He said its a major pia to clean all the dirty water out. He's on the water in Palm Harbor.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Key West is getting some storm surge already so of course you need to get your picture by the Southernmost Point buoy....

https://youtu.be/5-GFiZtzDmQ

Man, I just keep watching hoping to see some idiot get absolutely destroyed by a wave.

 

[got_nugs]

Really seems to be headed towards Ft Myers at this point.

Lee County (where Fort Myers is) issued mandatory evacuations for zones A and zones B this morning. I understand the storm jut recently moving a little more southeast but that’s late for a mandatory evacuation notice, no?

I’m in zone c and riding it out.

You'd think after the sudden turns by Charley and Irma that our county would act in advance.

 

[gump]

I’ve already had to backwash the pool to prevent patio flooding, tons of rain by me.

Any pool guys in here? Thinking about draining pool by a foot and shutting the pump. Just fill it back up afterwards, plus if power goes out, then I can’t drain, generator isn’t attached to pool panel. Anything wrong with that? Forecast for 6-12 inches by me.

I just drained mine about a foot and turned the pump off. Also put chlorine in mid-day. In Tampa expecting plenty of rain.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.

Can you post a link to where you get your updates and latest track?

I've been pulling data from everywhere. This is the first time I've really tracked with such an interest, so I'll need to make sure I can find a better data source in the future, but I'm basically comparing spaghetti model run over run and watching the trends in them. Giving more credence to the trends that have been correct than the ones that are shifting.

I've been pulling the spaghetti models from here:

IAN Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane

Also obviously watching the GFS and Euro tracks, giving more thought to the Euro track as well since the GFS was forecast more west and it appears the Euro might've been more correct. While that model was a little silly with the landfall and run up the coast 2 days ago, it's path to landfall appears to be much closer than GFS.

Overall, spaghetti model over spaghetti model keeps making these small shifts south for landfall. If that trend continues, then a Naples/Venice landfall and track around Lake Okeechobee would be close.

There is one homerun that is a newer model which shows the storm going south of peninsula completely, but that one seems extremely unlikely at this juncture.

ETA:

I find comparing the spaghetti models is the best way and mapping the trends run over run as opposed to just taking the track and cone that the Hurricane Center gives you provides more info and a better picture. I'm fairly new at tracking these, but if the trends continue, then a Cat 3 hits Venice/Naples area, imo.

 

[Osaurus]

Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.

Can you post a link to where you get your updates and latest track?

I've been pulling data from everywhere. This is the first time I've really tracked with such an interest, so I'll need to make sure I can find a better data source in the future, but I'm basically comparing spaghetti model run over run and watching the trends in them. Giving more credence to the trends that have been correct than the ones that are shifting.

I've been pulling the spaghetti models from here:

IAN Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane

Also obviously watching the GFS and Euro tracks, giving more thought to the Euro track as well since the GFS was forecast more west and it appears the Euro might've been more correct. While that model was a little silly with the landfall and run up the coast 2 days ago, it's path to landfall appears to be much closer than GFS.

Overall, spaghetti model over spaghetti model keeps making these small shifts south for landfall. If that trend continues, then a Naples/Venice landfall and track around Lake Okeechobee would be close.

There is one homerun that is a newer model which shows the storm going south of peninsula completely, but that one seems extremely unlikely at this juncture.

Good stuff here. Most appreciated.

 

[Osaurus]

Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.

Low population areas would be as good as you could expect, but it almost never goes that way. Fingers crossed.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I’ve already had to backwash the pool to prevent patio flooding, tons of rain by me.

Any pool guys in here? Thinking about draining pool by a foot and shutting the pump. Just fill it back up afterwards, plus if power goes out, then I can’t drain, generator isn’t attached to pool panel. Anything wrong with that? Forecast for 6-12 inches by me.

I just drained mine about a foot and turned the pump off. Also put chlorine in mid-day. In Tampa expecting plenty of rain.

Is your pool salt and you just put the chlorine due to the rain? I have some non chlorinized shock, might run that in there for an hour or two and then drain and shut.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

This guy gives very detailed info, some of the info is lagged as he only posts 2x a day, wish he posted more, but good to watch as well.

ETA:

His twitter is here, guy def knows his **** https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[gump]

I’ve already had to backwash the pool to prevent patio flooding, tons of rain by me.

Any pool guys in here? Thinking about draining pool by a foot and shutting the pump. Just fill it back up afterwards, plus if power goes out, then I can’t drain, generator isn’t attached to pool panel. Anything wrong with that? Forecast for 6-12 inches by me.

I just drained mine about a foot and turned the pump off. Also put chlorine in mid-day. In Tampa expecting plenty of rain.

Is your pool salt and you just put the chlorine due to the rain? I have some non chlorinized shock, might run that in there for an hour or two and then drain and shut.

Yep…just to give it some chemical.

 

[Capella]

Why turn the pump off? I didn’t know to do that.

Made it to Fort Lauderdale.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Why turn the pump off? I didn’t know to do that.

Made it to Fort Lauderdale.

2 reasons as I know, but maybe Gump knows more...

1) Damage to the pump from external water (sounds weird, but read it in a few places)
2) If you drain below the skimmer, you'll burn your pump out.

 

[Kal El]

Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.

Low population areas would be as good as you could expect, but it almost never goes that way. Fingers crossed.

Another issue is that because that area is a lot of wetland, it runs the risk of actually making the storm slightly stronger, or at least reducing the weakening it would undergo if it were to hit elsewhere. TS Faye in 2008 got stronger as it crossed the Everglades.

 

[The Commish]

Don't ever drain my pool Though, it's 100% true that if you don't have water flowing you'll screw the pump up in a few minutes.

 

[Wingnut]

Saw on Twitter:

So #HurricaneIan will take 24 hours to get from Sarasota to Orlando, which means that not even major hurricanes are immune from the ills of I-4 traffic.


Florida people will get it.

 

[E Street Brat]

Saw on Twitter:

So #HurricaneIan will take 24 hours to get from Sarasota to Orlando, which means that not even major hurricanes are immune from the ills of I-4 traffic.


Florida people will get it.

 

[Osaurus]

Saw on Twitter:

So #HurricaneIan will take 24 hours to get from Sarasota to Orlando, which means that not even major hurricanes are immune from the ills of I-4 traffic.


Florida people will get it.

Totally get it.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Ian doesn't even get a thread title credit?

Take care, Florida, FBGs! Got a couch and a fridge full of beer if anyone needs to bug out.

ETA: oh yea, remembered MJ said he couldn't log into his account for now

 

[Capella]

Don't ever drain my pool Though, it's 100% true that if you don't have water flowing you'll screw the pump up in a few minutes.

So run the pump?

 

[Wingnut]

Evacuees heading east on I-4 today. I had to go from Tampa to Lakeland earlier, I took back roads and it still took me an hour to get there. West bound on way back was clear and took 30 min.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1574857069135597581?t=CzCgAXjI6MpiRYKlwn9RGQ&s=19

 

[fantasycurse42]

Don't ever drain my pool Though, it's 100% true that if you don't have water flowing you'll screw the pump up in a few minutes.

So run the pump?

Most of the info I have gotten has said to shut the pump.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The eye of the storm is getting larger.

 

[Wingnut]

It is time.

Cheers!

 

[The Commish]

Don't ever drain my pool Though, it's 100% true that if you don't have water flowing you'll screw the pump up in a few minutes.

So run the pump?

Im not in danger of flooding, so I just let it go. Pool guy seems to think its fine. Salt water pool if that matters

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Fort Myers and Port Charlotte...

 

[Kal El]

New track is out, shifting east slightly. The bigger issue is that if it slows down, that means both flooding and a greater chance of it wobbling in an unexpected direction. We’re in for a rough few days.

 

[Wingnut]

Jim Cantore reportedly seen checking into a hotel in Punta Gorda.

https://twitter.com/SiestaKeyVal/status/1574868730496024578?t=LTfjhkkfUli7JOF-tgmnLw&s=19

 

[Wingnut]

The four horsemen of an impending hurricane, in order of severity:

- Publix begins selling hurricane cakes

- Disney closes

- Jim Cantore arrives

- Waffle House closes


If you see Cantore and closed Waffle Houses, GTFO immediately.

 

[culdeus]

Trends look like this might be hitting further south and crossing somewhere near Lake Okeechobee.

Can you post a link to where you get your updates and latest track?

I've been pulling data from everywhere. This is the first time I've really tracked with such an interest, so I'll need to make sure I can find a better data source in the future, but I'm basically comparing spaghetti model run over run and watching the trends in them. Giving more credence to the trends that have been correct than the ones that are shifting.

I've been pulling the spaghetti models from here:

IAN Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane

Also obviously watching the GFS and Euro tracks, giving more thought to the Euro track as well since the GFS was forecast more west and it appears the Euro might've been more correct. While that model was a little silly with the landfall and run up the coast 2 days ago, it's path to landfall appears to be much closer than GFS.

Overall, spaghetti model over spaghetti model keeps making these small shifts south for landfall. If that trend continues, then a Naples/Venice landfall and track around Lake Okeechobee would be close.

There is one homerun that is a newer model which shows the storm going south of peninsula completely, but that one seems extremely unlikely at this juncture.

ETA:

I find comparing the spaghetti models is the best way and mapping the trends run over run as opposed to just taking the track and cone that the Hurricane Center gives you provides more info and a better picture. I'm fairly new at tracking these, but if the trends continue, then a Cat 3 hits Venice/Naples area, imo.

This is bad advice. Listen to the nhc. Trying to armchair qb some model runs is a quick way to find yourself in a bad spot. Trust in our lord Levi if you need another source