werdnoynek
Footballguy
Care to share what's obvious?You're the one missing the obvious.Greene is mediocre. Sankey is mediocre. Therefore Sankey has very little chance to be Greene.For a guy who portrays himself as the smartest kid in the class, you sure seem to miss the obvious. Greene has tremendous value to a team. It's not that he's a stud, it's that he's NFL proven to be reliable and dependable. He'll get some push and get you into desirable down and distance on 2nd and 3rd down. That's a significant asset for a team. He increases the odds of a team sustaining drives, maintaining possession, and improving field position. He's solid between the tackles and moves forward, which is an added benefit in short yardage situations. And every once in a while, he has enough to his game that he can break off a long gainer.What Greene has proven is that coaches are willing to stick with mediocre backs.Oh wait isn't Sankey mediocre? I guess the odds of a mediocre 2nd round RB having a career as good as a mediocre 3rd round RB isn't good.Exactly. Greene has already proven that he can win a starting job, last for a few years, and be moderately productive.In fairness, he wasn't comparing Sankey's potential to Greene's potential as a prospect. He was comparing Sankey's potential to Greene's accomplishments (as we already know them).The odds of a 2nd round RB having a better career than a 3rd rounder is not good. Makes perfect sense. Do you even realize what you just wrote?Besides, you only say this because you already KNOW what Greene has done. How good could you be at predicting Greene's career that you don't know yet from the point he was drafted on forward? Instead of looking back into time and using data you already know.The odds of him having a better career than Greene are actually pretty slim.Donnybrook said:You might want to add this to the bold prediction thread.EBF said:Greene has two 1000+ yard rushing seasons in the NFL, which is probably more than Sankey will have in his career.
Here's a list of every RB drafted in the 2nd round from 2003-2012. Guys who have at least two 1000+ yard rushing season are in bold:
Isaiah Pead
LaMichael James
-------------------------
Ryan Williams
Shane Vereen
Mikel LeShoure
Daniel Thomas
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Dexter McCluster
Toby Gerhart
Ben Tate
Montario Hardesty
-------------------------LeSean McCoy
-------------------------Matt ForteRay Rice
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Kenny Irons
Chris Henry
Brian Leonard
Brandon Jackson
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LenDale WhiteMaurice Jones-Drew
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JJ Arrington
Eric Shelton
-------------------------
Tatum Bell
Julius Jones
Greg Jones
That's only 4 out of 24, or 16.7%. There are a couple players here who still have a chance to do it (Tate and Gerhart), and the recent odds are almost certainly going to rise when we look back on the Lacy/Bell/Gio/Michael/Ball class in a few years. You could also probably toss out players like McCluster and Leonard who never really seemed to have much hope for becoming bell cow backs. Generally speaking though, any given 2nd round RB is a huge dog to have even a Greene caliber career. Probably no better than 25-30%. If you think Sankey is a Rice/MJD/Forte/McCoy level player then you shouldn't be too worried about the odds, but they don't paint a pretty picture and I'm not a huge believer in his talent aside from that. His RB13 dynasty ADP is actually pretty insane when you think about it. Last year's abnormally high hit rate on the 2nd round RBs (not a single one of them has cratered like Pead or LeShoure yet) might be skewing expectations for this new crop of rookie backs.
As I showed above, that's actually a lot more than what you're going to get from a typical 2nd round rookie RB.
Making more sense each time.
His game helps the offense, helps make the QB a little better, and helps the D by giving them a rest. There's a reason why NFL HCs like a guy like Greene even though you miss it. He's not sexy but he's dependably effective. Against a guy like Sankey who may have a greater likelihood of busting off a big play if it's blocked by the book but who also just as easily gains minimal yards if a hole isn't opened for him, Greene becomes a more desirable option for the larger share of the ground work. - because he's more reliable and dependable.
FFers don't understand why a guy like Greene gets as much work as he does. He's not the sexy option and he doesn't post great numbers often. HCs fully understand his value, and that's why he gets the work he does.
Excellent analysis guys.
Your analysis lately has been just condescending jabs, ironically.