grateful zed
Footballguy
link?Aaron Rudnicki said:
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Official CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter seahawk 17
- Start date
Sabertooth said:Maybe. We'll see. How many touches are you thinking for Spiller? 250 isn't that much really. He had 230 last year on a bum ankle. That's only 1 touch per game more. What I'm thinking is that his speed will be back and with that will come more touchdowns. I doubt a healthy Spiller is used less this season than last year. Expecting a bump of 1 touch per game isn't anything really considering how hurt he was last year.
Comparing Spiller's 2012season to his 2013
season, we see that he had 6 more carries in 2012, but 300 more yards than he did in 2013. He had 9 more catches but 250 more yards. That's not usage based, the usage was arguably equal, that a dip in efficiency. I think that speaks more to his injury than to anything Fred Jackson did. Fred can just keep on keeping on like he has been (but he's older and father time is knocking) and Spiller could jump from RB27 to RB10 just by bouncing back and breaking off those long runs again. In 2012 Spiller had 12 carries of over 20 yards (6.0 avg), in 2013 he dropped to 9. That's not a huge drop but it's 60 yards. If those long ones end in scores, you are looking at potentially 60 more yards and 3 more touchdowns. Or put another way, he finishes 8 spots higher and in the Top 20. And that's without adding anything to his receiving numbers, which should also improve.
Look at it this way, this thread was started on October 3, 2013. I think the injury occurred in Week 2 or 3 (can somebody confirm this) but the team kind of denied it and kept saying he was in the game plan.
So if that's when it occurred, it means that he played the vast majority of his 2013 on a bum ankle. I don't think it ever healed. When Spiller was given rest he was able to roll out 18 fantasy points against the Chiefs and 24 against the Falcons in weeks 9 and 14 respectively.
Which is just a long way of saying, gamble on Spiller this season. He's healthy, super fast, contract motivated, and he's playing alongside an old man. Pay no attention to the injury marred 2012 campaign.
he's on nearly all of my teams this year. I'm not disagreeing that he provides nice value where he's being drafted...I just don't think we are going to see the 2012 Spiller either. Jackson wasn't himself that year and Spiller played at a different level. I'm sure many Spiller owners will be frustrated once again this year when they see Fred come out and replace him during 3rd down situations and again near the goal line.Sabertooth said:
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I agree with you, but do you have any idea why buffalo doesn't use him in the passing game more? Out of college scouts were saying he was such a good receiver he could play as a slot receiver if a team wanted to use him that way.
For some reason buffalo doesn't use him near as much as it seems they should.
This is a guy who should have 60+ receptions a year.
Fred Jackson is really good too, but yes all Bills fans get frustrated with the coaching staff not making better use of one of their most talented playmakers. I think he should be out there as a WR in passing situations, even if they want to use Jackson at RB due to how great he is at pass protection.
I think at this point we have to hope that Spiller's struggles last year were driven primarily by the high ankle sprain and he just was rarely ever 100% healthy. If he is himself, I have to imagine he'll force his way into the action a lot more.
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in the 6 games fjax missed that yr, spiller went 103/510 with 17 catches for 207 and 5 total tds.Sabertooth said:
prorate the other 12 games when fjax played and you get 1314 yfs, 35 catches and 2.7 tds over 16 games. pretty similar to last yr.
but hey, mebbe the coaching staff is deliberately using the players in a different way during the preseason than they will when the real games start. thats hard to bet on.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Fred Jackson is the oldest running back in the NFL by two years. My money is on him falling off his career fantasy season from last year. He's no joke, but then again he's not 32 year old Fred Jackson either, he's 33 year old Fred Jackson.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Or maybe THIS coaching staff hasn't had a healthy Spiller since Week 2 of 2013.
The bolded sentence is confusing to me? By that logic, we should be talking about Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon instead of Spiller and Fjax. I would bet all day that the coaches are deliberately using the players in a different way during the preseason than they will once the real games start. That's what preseason is all about.
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TartanLion
Footballguy
I'm choosing to believe this side of it for just now. Drafted him and Matthews as my RBs, going upside down in draft ( got Jimmy, Dez and Jordy) , and I've been getting heart palpitations reading the back and forth in this thread. Season could rest on whether Spiller explodes or not.
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LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Me too. Paired him with McCoy in the 4th (Jordy and Brown in-between). Feel better about him being my 2 than my 1 that's for sure.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I want to believe almost solely based on talent but the situation is so crappy/questionable that his current ADP in MFL is scaring me. If I knew BUF would utilize him even semi-competently I'd be on board but there's no reason to believe that'll actually be the case. It's actually quite frustrating to think about.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Spiller is a guy I've been moving up and down my board in recent weeks.
I'm a huge believer in his talent but his usage by this coaching staff really worries me. People can talk about the ankle sprain all they want but watching the playcalling and situational snaps last year was maddening.
And the first 2 pre-season games have been more of the same. True, it is just pre-season but it looks so similar to how he was used all of last year that it's a huge red flag for me.
The upside is still there and odds are against F-Jax having another productive season at 33 years old BUT right now I've been passing on him in mock snakes and will only be willing to spend so much on him in auction.
I'm a huge believer in his talent but his usage by this coaching staff really worries me. People can talk about the ankle sprain all they want but watching the playcalling and situational snaps last year was maddening.
And the first 2 pre-season games have been more of the same. True, it is just pre-season but it looks so similar to how he was used all of last year that it's a huge red flag for me.
The upside is still there and odds are against F-Jax having another productive season at 33 years old BUT right now I've been passing on him in mock snakes and will only be willing to spend so much on him in auction.
zamboni
Footballguy
Not singling you out, but a lot of people seem to view that the coaching staff is misusing Spiller since he doesn't get enough touches. The fact is that Fred Jackson, even at age 32, is just that good and the coaching staff doesn't think that Spiller can hold up as a workhorse.
Wally Cleaver
Footballguy
Your point may have been valid last year but If I am on the coaching staff and Spiller is playing in a contract year where we have nothing vested in his future why would you not run him into the ground if he is your most talented player. The player is going to want the ball to get a big contract, and you want to keep your job. Things seem to be in line for more touches if you ask me.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Not sure why anyone is questioning Spiller's usage -- IMO he's one of the easier players to predict in those terms. He'll likely be right around the 250 total touch mark that he's seen each of the last two years. The issue last year was with the decline in his per touch efficiency (IMO the high ankle sprain played a huge role), not with his workload. Around 200 carries / 50 catches will be plenty for Spiller to destroy his current ADP, assuming that 2012 electric Spiller shows up as opposed to gimpy HAS 2013 Spiller.
zamboni
Footballguy
I don't think management cares about Spiller's contract expiration nearly as much as Spiller does. The team is trying to win games and until they/see differently, Fred does just that in just about every phase of the game. By your logic though, if they don't think Spiller will be around, they could just as easily use Brown more (if Fred falters) to see if he's got the goods for the future.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
I agree with most of the logic here but I think it misses one big point. The change in coaching staff between 2012 and 2013. I think its entirely possible that the new coaching staff is incapable of getting that kind of production per touch from Spiller. So even if he has the volume he had in 2012, if they keep running him inside and not using him effectively in the passing game, its going to limit his upside tremendously. Everything we have seen in the preseason has spoken to that.Sabertooth said:Maybe. We'll see. How many touches are you thinking for Spiller? 250 isn't that much really. He had 230 last year on a bum ankle. That's only 1 touch per game more. What I'm thinking is that his speed will be back and with that will come more touchdowns. I doubt a healthy Spiller is used less this season than last year. Expecting a bump of 1 touch per game isn't anything really considering how hurt he was last year.
Comparing Spiller's 2012
Look at it this way, this thread was started on October 3, 2013. I think the injury occurred in Week 2 or 3 (can somebody confirm this) but the team kind of denied it and kept saying he was in the game plan.
So if that's when it occurred, it means that he played the vast majority of his 2013 on a bum ankle. I don't think it ever healed. When Spiller was given rest he was able to roll out 18 fantasy points against the Chiefs and 24 against the Falcons in weeks 9 and 14 respectively.
Which is just a long way of saying, gamble on Spiller this season. He's healthy, super fast, contract motivated, and he's playing alongside an old man. Pay no attention to the injury marred 2012 campaign.
OC Zed
Footballguy
One big caveat about Spiller's preseason so far: the Bills' offensive line is still very much a work-in-progress. They just got their starting LT (Cordy Glenn) back for the first time yesterday which prompted a subsequent shuffling of the RG (Pears) and RT (Henderson) on the first unit. The lineup changes have been frequent and the team is still trying to figure out their five best linemen. Once the line has the chance to develop some continuity, I'm sure we'll start seeing some better results from Spiller and the rest of the Bills RBs.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
It isn't touches, it's literal usage. He's not particular bad in between the tackles but I think we'd all agree he's at his best in space. I want to see the coaches actually scheme to get him into space, that's it.
I have him projected at 255 touches, ~1400 yards and 6tds which would slot him in as a low-end RB2 in PPR last year. In MFL he's the 16th RB going off the board. I don't see a crap ton of value. If FJax were to go down (his durability is actually just as much if not more in question than Spiller's) that would obviously change everything but I don't draft RBs in a RBBC in the earlier round "hoping" for an injury to their counterpart.
Wally Cleaver
Footballguy
What I was saying is that prior to this season the coaching staff had a vested interest in not overusing Spiller. This season they don't have that same vested interest and are probably not concerned about prolonging his career because they have no vested interest in his future at this point as he is a free agent after this season. If your argument is that Fred Jackson is a better player than fine, but if Spiller starts to tear it up than I don't see the coaches preserving him the way they would if he had a 3 year deal.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
The change is coaching staff is the big elephant in the room in my post. I agree. I guess that's the true gamble. Was it the ankle or the coaching staff? We shall have to wait and see.I agree with most of the logic here but I think it misses one big point. The change in coaching staff between 2012 and 2013. I think its entirely possible that the new coaching staff is incapable of getting that kind of production per touch from Spiller. So even if he has the volume he had in 2012, if they keep running him inside and not using him effectively in the passing game, its going to limit his upside tremendously. Everything we have seen in the preseason has spoken to that.Sabertooth said:Maybe. We'll see. How many touches are you thinking for Spiller? 250 isn't that much really. He had 230 last year on a bum ankle. That's only 1 touch per game more. What I'm thinking is that his speed will be back and with that will come more touchdowns. I doubt a healthy Spiller is used less this season than last year. Expecting a bump of 1 touch per game isn't anything really considering how hurt he was last year.
Comparing Spiller's 2012
Look at it this way, this thread was started on October 3, 2013. I think the injury occurred in Week 2 or 3 (can somebody confirm this) but the team kind of denied it and kept saying he was in the game plan.
So if that's when it occurred, it means that he played the vast majority of his 2013 on a bum ankle. I don't think it ever healed. When Spiller was given rest he was able to roll out 18 fantasy points against the Chiefs and 24 against the Falcons in weeks 9 and 14 respectively.
Which is just a long way of saying, gamble on Spiller this season. He's healthy, super fast, contract motivated, and he's playing alongside an old man. Pay no attention to the injury marred 2012 campaign.
VaTerp
Footballguy
When I talk about Spiller's usage I'm not talking about the number of touches I'm literally talking about HOW he is used. I watched more Bills games than I cared to last year and it was maddening to see Spiller repeatedly given the ball on straight inside handoffs then have F-Jax come in and get pitches, counters, and screens that Spiller just did not seem to get nearly enough of.
I just don't think the coaching staff put Spiller in position to succeed with how they used him. They seemed to force him on inside runs and did very little to play to his strengths and get him in space.
F-Jax also got much more, or seemed to get to much more, 3rd down and redzone work as has been the case this pre-season. So again, it's not the number of touches but the types of plays and the game situations in which he was Spiller was used.
Silver & Black
Footballguy
To me, it comes down to this. No matter how much you like or dislike F Jax, it's clear the Bills like him. He doesn't just get touches inside the 20, he gets them all over the field. The Bills clearly trust him. I agree, it isn't so much about his number of touches that concerns me, it's how they appear to use Spiller. I don't trust the Bills offense and EJ enough at this point to believe that Spiller is going to be an explosive, high end #1 RB many people seem convinced he is going to be. At least, not within the framework of how the Bills offense appears to be set up to run. That offense is going to include a very heavy dose of F Jax. I see Spiller as a good #2 RB with #1 upside if F Jax gets hurt.
Spiller himself looked good today, had some nice plays called back due to penalties.
Unfortunately, the Bills offensive line and QB play leaves much to be desired. He really is one of their only chances to move the ball though, so I don't see how he doesn't get a heavy workload in the regular season if healthy.
Unfortunately, the Bills offensive line and QB play leaves much to be desired. He really is one of their only chances to move the ball though, so I don't see how he doesn't get a heavy workload in the regular season if healthy.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
You guys all need to stop and face reality. The offense is terrible because they have no qb and the coaching staff doesn't know how to use spiller. He will never be relevant until Jackson retires or spiller leaves the organization. Adp isn't worth it.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
He had 9 rushes for 36 yards, plus an 18 yard run called back on a bogus block in the back call and another big run called back on a super ticky tack hands to the face penalty. Neither penalty had anything to do with Spiller's success and both were bogus calls. He should have finished in the neighborhood of 11 rushes for 65 yards. That's reason for some optimism.ctrlaltdefeat said:
The best part was that he had some success up the middle and did a nice job cutting back inside a few times.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Spiller has never been on one of my squads so I've never watched too much of him.
Just watched his 2012/2013 highlights and it has me excited.
I will likely be one of those Fred Jackson haters over the next few weeks.
Just watched his 2012/2013 highlights and it has me excited.
I will likely be one of those Fred Jackson haters over the next few weeks.
ourmanflint
Footballguy
Spiller owner eh?
I expect eventually they will get it once they realize he's one of the few players who can save their jobs.
Hot Diggity Dog
Footballguy
Very much in on him this year. Going to make a big come back.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Spiller is a guy who doesn't need alot of touches to be FF worthy. While I'm not expecting him to replicate his 6 YPC of 2012...the fact that he posted a 4.6 YPC on one leg is encouraging for his 2014 prospects. Also, BUF ran more plays than any other offense last year...the name of the game there is tempo. So I actually welcome the presence of F-Jax because it keeps Spiller fresh. Spiller to me is best used as a 30-35 snap/game player, but when he's in the game...he's a 50/50 shot to get the ball. Over 16 games, this gives him 240-280 touches. If he can pull a 5 YPC on 200-225 carries and an 8 YPR on 40-50 receptions, that puts him at 1320-1525 YFS clip.
While he's not a red zone guy, if he scoops up 5-7 TD's, he'll be worth the 4th round pick you used to draft him. He's got to stay healthy though.
While he's not a red zone guy, if he scoops up 5-7 TD's, he'll be worth the 4th round pick you used to draft him. He's got to stay healthy though.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
He's on all my teams.Maybe. We'll see. How many touches are you thinking for Spiller? 250 isn't that much really. He had 230 last year on a bum ankle. That's only 1 touch per game more. What I'm thinking is that his speed will be back and with that will come more touchdowns. I doubt a healthy Spiller is used less this season than last year. Expecting a bump of 1 touch per game isn't anything really considering how hurt he was last year.
Comparing Spiller's 2012
Look at it this way, this thread was started on October 3, 2013. I think the injury occurred in Week 2 or 3 (can somebody confirm this) but the team kind of denied it and kept saying he was in the game plan.
So if that's when it occurred, it means that he played the vast majority of his 2013 on a bum ankle. I don't think it ever healed. When Spiller was given rest he was able to roll out 18 fantasy points against the Chiefs and 24 against the Falcons in weeks 9 and 14 respectively.
Which is just a long way of saying, gamble on Spiller this season. He's healthy, super fast, contract motivated, and he's playing alongside an old man. Pay no attention to the injury marred 2012 campaign.
Resident A
Footballguy
I agree with you about Spiller's number of touches, but with him healthy, 5-7 TDs is his FLOOR.
Buffalo had the top rushing offense in the NFL last year. This year they upgraded the OL, and may have even less faith in EJ Manuel. This points a major dedication to the run game. I can easily see Spiller with 1500 total yards and 10+ TDs.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Yes. Complete garbage. Just because he is an option for returns doesn't mean he won't start. Likely he will be back there at the beginning of each half to try to spark field position IMO.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
It also states later in the article that Marrone sees Spiller as a 20 touch/game player so long as they are the right touches.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Still too unreliable to be counted on yet. Boom or bust on the fantasy points each game.
OC Zed
Footballguy
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
BS....I will start Harvin in my flex in most leagues instead. GL with this chump .... once you are 0-5 I am sure he will go off when he is sitting on your bench
matuski
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Spiller or Mathews at flex....................ugh. Going Spiller.
Gotta figure he gets 15 touches, with maybe 3 being catches, right?....RIGHT????
Gotta figure he gets 15 touches, with maybe 3 being catches, right?....RIGHT????
