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Official CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)

He doesn't need volume to be a top 5 back in PPR IMO.
:goodposting: This is exactly where the Spiller detractors completely miss the boat with their refrain of "he's not a workhorse." Well, duh. He is a guy who will get 250ish touches, and put up a strong RB1 FF season with that number of touches in 2012. Spiller doesn't need a workhorse touch count to be huge value; he just needs to not play a big chunk of the year with a high ankle sprain, which is what happened last year. Buffalo RBs handled the ball 527 (!) times last year -- Spiller can produce RB1 numbers even with less than half of that total.
This is where I have concern.When folks say he doesn't need a lot of volume, that may be true if he has a year like 2012 or is Jamaal Charles lite. Question is: can you bank on that? I don't think I could - last year could be closer to the norm, and who knows how the touches may be divvied with Brown also in the picture.
It depends on his ADP in August. If you can draft him as a late RB2 he's all upside. If you have to pay for him like people did in summer 2013, then yeah, he's a big risk.

I will say that it's fairly unlikely that 2013 is his norm, unless he plays all year on a high ankle sprain again. That's a pretty debilitating injury for a RB and he was very noticeably limited by it.

 
Can't say I am too high on the guy at this point. At age 27 for a RB, he only has ONE good fantasy season so far. The rest are rather............bad.

RUmors of Bills trying to trade up for Hyde (i know I know, rumors are stupid, just a tiny part of it)

Fjax still alive

Bryce Brown brought in. Usually you dont trade for a guy unless you plan to actually use him, and a 4th is no throw away pick.

The whole "he doesnt need a large volume of touches blah blah blah". yes, yes he does. And if we know he isn't going to get that large volume (which it definitely looks like he wont), then to me that really hurts his value and upside.

In orders for him to have a really good fantasy season, his efficiency will have to be through the roof. For that to happen, everything needs to go right for him and for the team.

I see about 3 years left where he can be productive, but I dont see him being productive all three years. Why would I?? In the last 4 years he has been productive once.

 
Can't say I am too high on the guy at this point. At age 27 for a RB, he only has ONE good fantasy season so far. The rest are rather............bad.

RUmors of Bills trying to trade up for Hyde (i know I know, rumors are stupid, just a tiny part of it)

Fjax still alive

Bryce Brown brought in. Usually you dont trade for a guy unless you plan to actually use him, and a 4th is no throw away pick.

The whole "he doesnt need a large volume of touches blah blah blah". yes, yes he does. And if we know he isn't going to get that large volume (which it definitely looks like he wont), then to me that really hurts his value and upside.

In orders for him to have a really good fantasy season, his efficiency will have to be through the roof. For that to happen, everything needs to go right for him and for the team.

I see about 3 years left where he can be productive, but I dont see him being productive all three years. Why would I?? In the last 4 years he has been productive once.
I don't see how it can be explained any better than this. I don't see an argument against this whatsoever.

 
Can't say I am too high on the guy at this point. At age 27 for a RB, he only has ONE good fantasy season so far. The rest are rather............bad.

RUmors of Bills trying to trade up for Hyde (i know I know, rumors are stupid, just a tiny part of it)

Fjax still alive

Bryce Brown brought in. Usually you dont trade for a guy unless you plan to actually use him, and a 4th is no throw away pick.

The whole "he doesnt need a large volume of touches blah blah blah". yes, yes he does. And if we know he isn't going to get that large volume (which it definitely looks like he wont), then to me that really hurts his value and upside.

In orders for him to have a really good fantasy season, his efficiency will have to be through the roof. For that to happen, everything needs to go right for him and for the team.

I see about 3 years left where he can be productive, but I dont see him being productive all three years. Why would I?? In the last 4 years he has been productive once.
You have to put things in context as opposed to just looking at end of year stats, though. Spiller's first two years he was unable to beat out Fred Jackson -- and I'm not sure why that would be a significant issue. Jackson has been really good -- good enough to send another damn good RB, Marshawn Lynch, packing. And when Spiller did get a chance in 2011 at the end of the year when Fred went down, he was damn good. In 2012 Spiller was a top 10 RB. In 2013 he played hurt.

Assuming health, which I do for almost everyone this time of year, I'd project a 250 touch workload consistent with what he had in 2012 and 2013. I'd also expect his efficiency and final numbers to fall somewhere in between those years -- which makes him a good redraft target as a RB2 IMO assuming he falls out of RB1 territory ADP wise, which seems like a safe bet.

In dynasty, I'd gladly buy low, but he's still carrying RB1 value from what I've seen, and I'll pass at that price.

 
You have to put things in context as opposed to just looking at end of year stats, though.
I have never, nor do I plan to ever, just look at stats. No idea why you think I am doing that.

And I am not saying he will suck it up and be terrible, but I think he is overvalued by almost everyone I have heard with an opinion on him, regarding dynasty at least. For redraft it's a lot more luck, and RBs go way early, so he needs to go early in redraft.

 
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Did you not read the rest of what I wrote?
For brevity, I selected to quote your thesis.

The whole "he doesnt need a large volume of touches blah blah blah". yes, yes he does. And if we know he isn't going to get that large volume (which it definitely looks like he wont), then to me that really hurts his value and upside. In orders for him to have a really good fantasy season, his efficiency will have to be through the roof. For that to happen, everything needs to go right for him and for the team.

I see about 3 years left where he can be productive, but I dont see him being productive all three years. Why would I?? In the last 4 years he has been productive once.
If the dude gets 170 carries, that's fine by me. We've seen him have extreme efficiency when healthy in the past. As for the passing game, I have to believe the Bills have enough wits to give Spiller the lions share of the running back targets next year. Methinks his lack of involvement receiving last season had to do with his bum ankle.

With such usage, maybe Spiller never becomes a bona-fide top five running back in standard scoring. Although that's still pretty damn good for PPR. But those who had great expectations will be disappointed. Many had him pinned as a top 5 running back. IMO he's a safe bet to at least reach top 15 to go along with decent upside. You could do worse.

 
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He had 1118 yards from scrimmage last year, on 4.6ypc on a high ankle sprain, with rookie or journeyman QBs under center, behind an Online that was just awful at 3 of the 5 positions.

That seems like just about worst case scenario to me.

 
If you are willing to bet on health as well as very high per touch efficiency, have at it.

I am to a degree, just not that close to where people seem to value him.

He did it once. Right, once. I get it. It CAN happen again.

But with a 170 carries, wow, he would need a heck of a lot of catches and TDs to get into the top 10. Like 50-60 and 10.

 
If you are willing to bet on health as well as very high per touch efficiency, have at it.

I am to a degree, just not that close to where people seem to value him.

He did it once. Right, once. I get it. It CAN happen again.

But with a 170 carries, wow, he would need a heck of a lot of catches and TDs to get into the top 10. Like 50-60 and 10.
They play football, so I will not bet on health for any player, especially a running back. But I don't see a higher injury risk for Spiller than his counterparts. Maybe he has less risk since he doesn't carry the ball as much. Plus, he will get the ball in space a high percentage - less wear and tear.

For efficiency, ignoring his rookie year, Spiller has averaged 5.3 ypc on 516 carries. Ignoring his bum ankle season, he has averaged 5.7 ypa on 314 carries. Not a huge sample size, albeit. But these numbers coincide with the eyeball test: Spiller has #### tons of joy stick type talent.

I would never argue he will repeat a 6.0 ypc like 2012, that seems a little high for anybody. Why not 5.3? Let me ask: what kind of efficiency you expect from him?

As far as his workload, I expect Spiller to get at least 170 carries, at most 220, with easily 50 receptions.

After doing the math, that's a pretty good season. Do others value him more than that?

 
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IMO he's overpriced in dynasty as a late 2nd round startup RB1. But I tend to think that almost all the RBs after the handful at the very top are over valued also; IMO it's more about "there's a pile of crap at RB so why not Spiller" as opposed to folks truly loving a 27 year old RB with his track record that high. Either way, if I do any startups this year, I'm building around non-RBs early outside of McCoy and Charles.

Redraft, though, I think Spiller is likely to slide into the 3rd, maybe even 4th, and be available close to 20 RBs deep. If that happens, I'm all over him.

 
IMO he's overpriced in dynasty as a late 2nd round startup RB1. But I tend to think that almost all the RBs after the handful at the very top are over valued also; IMO it's more about "there's a pile of crap at RB so why not Spiller" as opposed to folks truly loving a 27 year old RB with his track record that high. Either way, if I do any startups this year, I'm building around non-RBs early outside of McCoy and Charles.

Redraft, though, I think Spiller is likely to slide into the 3rd, maybe even 4th, and be available close to 20 RBs deep. If that happens, I'm all over him.
What reason does Spiller go higher in dynasty than redraft? He's not young for a running back.

 
IMO he's overpriced in dynasty as a late 2nd round startup RB1. But I tend to think that almost all the RBs after the handful at the very top are over valued also; IMO it's more about "there's a pile of crap at RB so why not Spiller" as opposed to folks truly loving a 27 year old RB with his track record that high. Either way, if I do any startups this year, I'm building around non-RBs early outside of McCoy and Charles.

Redraft, though, I think Spiller is likely to slide into the 3rd, maybe even 4th, and be available close to 20 RBs deep. If that happens, I'm all over him.
What reason does Spiller go higher in dynasty than redraft? He's not young for a running back.
He's younger than 15 / 26 RBs that finished ahead of him last year. The good RBs are really old as a group right now.

 
As far as his workload, I expect Spiller to get at least 170 carries, at most 220, with easily 50 receptions.

After doing the math, that's a pretty good season. Do others value him more than that?
So he CEILING is 220 carries (say 5 ypc) and 50 catches (say 10 yards a catch). 210 points plus how many TDs? 7? 260 points.

That is a good year, but if that is the CEILING, there are quite a few guys I will take who I think have higher floors, plus others with higher ceilings.

We'll see where it goes. he is NOT a guy I am investing a lot it.

 
As far as his workload, I expect Spiller to get at least 170 carries, at most 220, with easily 50 receptions.

After doing the math, that's a pretty good season. Do others value him more than that?
So he CEILING is 220 carries (say 5 ypc) and 50 catches (say 10 yards a catch). 210 points plus how many TDs? 7? 260 points.

That is a good year, but if that is the CEILING, there are quite a few guys I will take who I think have higher floors, plus others with higher ceilings.

We'll see where it goes. he is NOT a guy I am investing a lot it.
Let's say he goes on average in the 3rd/4th round in re-draft. Who you getting safer with more upside at that ADP?

 
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As far as his workload, I expect Spiller to get at least 170 carries, at most 220, with easily 50 receptions.

After doing the math, that's a pretty good season. Do others value him more than that?
So he CEILING is 220 carries (say 5 ypc) and 50 catches (say 10 yards a catch). 210 points plus how many TDs? 7? 260 points.

That is a good year, but if that is the CEILING, there are quite a few guys I will take who I think have higher floors, plus others with higher ceilings.

We'll see where it goes. he is NOT a guy I am investing a lot it.
Let's say he goes on average in the 3rd/4th round in re-draft. Who you getting safer with more upside at that ADP?
That is fine in a redraft. Almost any starting rb is good in the 4th in a redraft

 
Ahhh, the moment we have all been waiting for. The spiller hater trades for SPiller. I put this in the trade thread but:

FFPC (1.5 PPR for TE), 12 team dynasty

gave

Mark Ingram

Julius Thomas

Delanie Walker

pick 9

for

CJ Spiller

Jordan Cameron

I dont even like the deal and wouldnt have done it except I am paper thin at RB, only Ryan Mathews (and Ingram was far and away my next best RB, ouch).

 
Ahhh, the moment we have all been waiting for. The spiller hater trades for SPiller. I put this in the trade thread but:

FFPC (1.5 PPR for TE), 12 team dynasty

gave

Mark Ingram

Julius Thomas

Delanie Walker

pick 9

for

CJ Spiller

Jordan Cameron

I dont even like the deal and wouldnt have done it except I am paper thin at RB, only Ryan Mathews (and Ingram was far and away my next best RB, ouch).
I don't think it's a horrible deal really. Thomas/Cameron aren't that far apart to me, and Ingram is borderline worthless IMO. So you get Spiller for the 1.09 basically - I think that's good value. I'd move the 1.09 for Spiller even with this deep class I think.

 
Nice value for Spiller. I just grabbed him in my 12 team PPR startup at the 4.11! Couldn't believe he was there...

 
I will be looking to move him...but worst case scenario I keep him and maybe he has a hot game or two and I can move him then, or he is a dud. Whatever. he is better than ingram

 
I will be looking to move him...but worst case scenario I keep him and maybe he has a hot game or two and I can move him then, or he is a dud. Whatever. he is better than ingram
not if Pierre Thomas goes down
Yes, even if Pierre Thomas goes down, even if Khiry Robinson also goes down.
i dont care for Ingram but hes going to get more touches per game than Spiller and hes in a contract year

 
i dont care for Ingram but hes going to get more touches per game than Spiller and hes in a contract year
He might get more touches if the other gusy get hurt.

If both backfields are healthy, even though spiller maybe gets 200 carries and 40-50 catches, I cant see Ingram approach that at all

 
I will be looking to move him...but worst case scenario I keep him and maybe he has a hot game or two and I can move him then, or he is a dud. Whatever. he is better than ingram
not if Pierre Thomas goes down
Yes, even if Pierre Thomas goes down, even if Khiry Robinson also goes down.
i dont care for Ingram but hes going to get more touches per game than Spiller and hes in a contract year
This is unlikely. Excepting injury, Ingram is going to need a lot of TDs to outscore Spiller, especially in PPR.

 
DOnt really wanna turn this into a Spiller vs Ingram bet, but Spiller's talent>>>>Ingram...........and he is the starter.

I dont know what Ingram is, but to me he is the 3rd best RB on his team.

 
Baseline case for me is Spiller gets 50-60 receptions and 180-200 rushes. If healthy over 16 games, that should easily be good for top-15 RB numbers, if not better. Ceiling is Jamaal Charles-lite season. Floor is probably just the baseline, adjusted for injury.


We can disagree on ceiling and floor, but I am surprised so many people disagree with this base case. For me, it seems like one of the clearer situations across the 32 teams.

Spiller is not that old for dynasty-purposes. 27 with very limited wear-and-tear is okay for me in 1.0 PPR for an RB in his role. Look at how long Sproles produced for. I am guessing in terms of FF production, Spiller and, say, Lacy will start declining around the same time.

The Bills acquiring Bryce Brown (is that really that big of a deal?) and supposedly trying to trade up is not because they don't like Spiller. They simply know he will get a decent offer as an FA in one year and they have no desire to pay for RBs. Nothing shocking or too insightful here, it's just the direction they are taking going forward. Look at the Watkins move - this is not a team that plans to run first 2-3 years from now.

 
Buffalo had 546 rushing attempts last year. I don't think we need to worry about Spiller's volume this year. The Bryce Brown trade/Hyde trade up attempts means "we like to run the ball a lot and play at a fast tempo, and one of our top running backs just turned 33, so we want to restock".

 
Buffalo had 546 rushing attempts last year. I don't think we need to worry about Spiller's volume this year. The Bryce Brown trade/Hyde trade up attempts means "we like to run the ball a lot and play at a fast tempo, and one of our top running backs just turned 33, so we want to restock".
Also "our top 2 RBs both have contracts that expire after this season and it's unlikely we retain both of them so we need to plan ahead a bit."

 
Mark IngramJulius Thomas

Delanie Walker

pick 9

for

CJ Spiller

Jordan Cameron
Cameron for JT is almost a wash: Short term JT, long term Cameron.

So you give Ingram, Walker, and pick 9 for Spiller, in a TE premium league. That's a pretty hefty price for a guy you've hated on in this thread. ;)

I personally don't like the move just looking at value. But sometimes your roster dictates.

 
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Sigmund Bloom said:
Buffalo had 546 rushing attempts last year. I don't think we need to worry about Spiller's volume this year. The Bryce Brown trade/Hyde trade up attempts means "we like to run the ball a lot and play at a fast tempo, and one of our top running backs just turned 33, so we want to restock".
Though the Brown acquisition and Hyde talk strikes a blow for those hoping Fred Jackson's exist would propel Spiller into the 300+ carry realm. IMO, these recent developments indicate they don't trust Spiller with that kind of load.

Over/under 210 carries for Spiller?

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
Buffalo had 546 rushing attempts last year. I don't think we need to worry about Spiller's volume this year. The Bryce Brown trade/Hyde trade up attempts means "we like to run the ball a lot and play at a fast tempo, and one of our top running backs just turned 33, so we want to restock".
Though the Brown acquisition and Hyde talk strikes a blow for those hoping Fred Jackson's exist would propel Spiller into the 300+ carry realm. IMO, these recent developments indicate they don't trust Spiller with that kind of load.

Over/under 210 carries for Spiller?
over. he managed 201 last year playing hurt and missing a game with bad QB play.

 
Mark IngramJulius Thomas

Delanie Walker

pick 9

for

CJ Spiller

Jordan Cameron
Cameron for JT is almost a wash: Short term JT, long term Cameron.

So you give Ingram, Walker, and pick 9 for Spiller, in a TE premium league. That's a pretty hefty price for a guy you've hated on in this thread. ;)

I personally don't like the move just looking at value. But sometimes your roster dictates.
I rank JT above Cameron pretty easily. Long long term sure, I can see Cameron.

I dont place much (if any) value on Ingram. I actually traded a 6th rounder (to this same guy I made this deal with) for him a few months ago. Walker is at best a bye week fill in, but only if you also have a couple injuries.

I do like pick 9 though.

I think the total value of the deal (in the FFPC with smaller rosters) is pretty even.

At the end of the year when you have to cut down to 14 QB/RB/WR/TE, not sure Ingram and Walker are even able to be kept.

If I didnt NEEEEEEEEEEEEEED a RB badly, I would have had to think much harder on this one. But since I do have that need and the value is this close, insta accept for me

 
I dont understand whats changed for Spiller? He's never been a workhorse since coming into the league. Why cant he produce like his 2012 year , ~ 250 touches in which he was a top 10 fantasy back. If he gets hurt, then so be it. But thats really the only reason you'd pass on him. He clearly was playing thru injuries last year and even still, managed 4.6 ypc, which is hard to believe. But his skills didnt magically vanish. If he's healthy which is an IF for pretty much every rb in the nfl, there is no way he's not a top 15 RB, thats probably his floor. I'd be self high fiving if im getting him in rd 3...

 
Buffalo had 546 rushing attempts last year. I don't think we need to worry about Spiller's volume this year. The Bryce Brown trade/Hyde trade up attempts means "we like to run the ball a lot and play at a fast tempo, and one of our top running backs just turned 33, so we want to restock".
Though the Brown acquisition and Hyde talk strikes a blow for those hoping Fred Jackson's exist would propel Spiller into the 300+ carry realm. IMO, these recent developments indicate they don't trust Spiller with that kind of load.

Over/under 210 carries for Spiller?
I would say over also..... I would set my personal over/under line at 240.

 
He clearly was playing thru injuries last year and even still, managed 4.6 ypc, which is hard to believe. But his skills didnt magically vanish. If he's healthy which is an IF for pretty much every rb in the nfl, there is no way he's not a top 15 RB, thats probably his floor. I'd be self high fiving if im getting him in rd 3...
:goodposting:

profit from the short attention span of the FF world. Spiller had one of the most notable RB seasons in NFL history in 2012, but Adrian Peterson had go and overshadow it with an even more historic season.

RBs who have had 6+ YPC on over 200 carries:

Jim Brown 1963

OJ Simpson 1973

Barry Sanders 1997

Jamaal Charles 2010

CJ Spiller 2012

Adrian Peterson 2012

 
Lets also not forget the addition of Sammy Watkins will only help Spiller. They had literally 0 threats passing the ball last year. Im not giving CJ a pass, but who were the defenses keying on whenever he was in the game? Literally had no threats for D's to worry about. But EJ Manuel cannot be horrific. If he's even average/mediocre, im loving Spiller. If hes the EJ Manuel we saw last year, then CJ's ceiling will be limited.

 
In the past ten years, ten RBs have finished as a RB1 with 250 touches or less:

2013: Fred Jackson - 253 touches, 10 TDs (RB11)

2012: CJ Spiller - 253 touches, 8 TDs (RB7)

2011: ADP - 227 touches, 13 TDs (RB8)

2011: Darren Sproles - 173 touches, 9 TDs (RB10)

2009: Jonathan Stewart - 239 touches, 11 TDs (RB11)

2009: Jamaal Charles - 230 touches, 8 TDs (RB12)

2007: Marion Barber - 248 touches, 12 TDs (RB7)

2006: MJD - 212 touches, 15 TDs (RB8)

2004: Westbrook - 250 touches, 9 TDs (RB10)

2004: Priest Holmes - 220 touches, 14 TDs (RB12)
Notes:

A. Only one player has finished as a RB1 with less than 200 touches (Sproles)

2. The best finish has been RB7 (Spiller, Barber)

D. RB1 numbers have only been achieved in this span with single digit TDs four times (Spiller, Sproles, Charles, Westbrook)

#. MJD was close in 2007 - 207 touches, 9 TDs (RB13)

Since I think Spiller will maintain the same type of workload as the last two years (~250), and will likely not break the double-digit TD mark, I can't bet the farm he will be a RB1 again. One or both of those things would need to change considerably to have a great amount of confidence. I'll be looking for him as a strong RB2, and my guess is most others will place the same value on him as me come August. I think he'll be an even money type of bet.

These stats were pulled from the historical stats section of FBG, and do not account for PPR. Not sure how that skews things, but doubt by much.

 
Rotoworld:

C.J. Spiller - RB - Bills

WGR 550 Buffalo expects a "more defined and bigger role" for C.J. Spiller in 2014.

Spiller played 394 snaps in 2013, often at far less than 100 percent. Reporter Joe Buscaglia acknowledges that the Bills have likely given up on the idea of Spiller as a workhorse, but that OC Nathaniel Hackett now "understands where (Spiller) works best." For all the handwringing, Spiller still averaged 4.6 yards on his 202 carries last season, and caught 33 passes. He's a boom-or-bust RB2.

Source: WGR 550 Buffalo

May 26 - 2:18 PM

 
Rotoworld:

C.J. Spiller - RB - Bills

WGR 550 Buffalo expects a "more defined and bigger role" for C.J. Spiller in 2014.

Spiller played 394 snaps in 2013, often at far less than 100 percent. Reporter Joe Buscaglia acknowledges that the Bills have likely given up on the idea of Spiller as a workhorse, but that OC Nathaniel Hackett now "understands where (Spiller) works best." For all the handwringing, Spiller still averaged 4.6 yards on his 202 carries last season, and caught 33 passes. He's a boom-or-bust RB2.

Source: WGR 550 Buffalo

May 26 - 2:18 PM
I would draft him a s a# 2 if i had a guy like Jamal Charles or A.P as my # 1 and i had a great WR as well ...but only as a # 3 RB if those other pieces werent in place first...not worth the ''bust'' risk as a 2

 
Here is a good analysis on how Spiller was used against Baltimore last year.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-analysis-all-22/2014/5/30/5764646/buffalo-bills-run-scheme-cj-spiller-play-calls

This was the game where he sprained his ankle (third quarter) and gives and indication as to how Buffalo wanted to use Spiller as the workhorse back prior to the injury - and also how their line was incapable of executing on anything but very basic run calls. Also note how the line's failures were most acute on the outside traps (where Spiller works best in space).

Buffalo has brought in some new talent at tackle and guard which should hopefully help the situation.

 
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Rotoworld:

The offensive coaches "seem eager" to expand the way in which C.J. Spiller will be used this season.
The Bills tried slamming Spiller between the tackles far too often last season, failing to utilize his unique open-field ability. Expanding his usage creatively to include more screens, draws and pitches will go a long way toward a rebound season. So will a completely healed ankle. The Bills' official site named Spiller one of the team's top OTA performers, noting he was fully healthy while "bobbing and weaving through would-be tacklers" and is "back to cutting on a dime."

Source: buffalobills.com
 
Rotoworld:

C.J. Spiller is expected to be part of the competition to be the Bills' kick returner this season.

Spiller hasn't returned a kick since 2011, and hasn't done it regularly since his 2010 rookie season when he averaged 23.0 yards per on 44 returns and brought one back to the house. With the Bills adding Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon to their backfield in the offseason, it could allow them to get Spiller's game-breaking ability on the field more on special teams. Marquise Goodwin, T.J. Graham, Sammy Watkins, and Leodis McKelvin are also in the mix for return duties.


Source: buffalobills.com
 
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