Official CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)

[werdnoynek]

A break out? For Ralph??

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I won't be touching him unless it is late and he is a bargain. He is one of the overhyped guys that never pans out since Fred Jackson is the prettiest girl in that backfield. He's basically a gimmick guy that now has injury issues. Gonna be a nasty 3 way with Fred Jackson getting about 50% of touches, Spiller with 40%, and maybe Dixon with 10%. I'll let the next guy over pay.

So much wrong packed into a single short post is pretty impressive.

 

[steveski]

I won't be touching him unless it is late and he is a bargain. He is one of the overhyped guys that never pans out since Fred Jackson is the prettiest girl in that backfield. He's basically a gimmick guy that now has injury issues. Gonna be a nasty 3 way with Fred Jackson getting about 50% of touches, Spiller with 40%, and maybe Dixon with 10%. I'll let the next guy over pay.

Avoid at your own peril, as Spiller will most certainly have a nice bounce back year. I'm not worried at all about FJax, and Dixon is nothing more than a short yardage back. A healthy Spiller will carve out a nice role in that O, and I'm predicting he vaults back into the top 10. I fully expect his ADP to creep higher and higher as we get closer to the actual season.

Agree. I was lucky enough to be unlucky enough to not have a high enough pick last year to land Spiller. I was a Spiller owner 2 years ago when he was a late pick and I see the same thing happening again this year. Then again, I did WANT to own Spiller last year as well, I just didn't manage to. So I guess I don't have the same burning sensation a lot of others have.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

I won't be touching him unless it is late and he is a bargain. He is one of the overhyped guys that never pans out since Fred Jackson is the prettiest girl in that backfield. He's basically a gimmick guy that now has injury issues. Gonna be a nasty 3 way with Fred Jackson getting about 50% of touches, Spiller with 40%, and maybe Dixon with 10%. I'll let the next guy over pay.

you will not have the perfect draft.

 

[Warpig]

I won't be touching him unless it is late and he is a bargain. He is one of the overhyped guys that never pans out since Fred Jackson is the prettiest girl in that backfield. He's basically a gimmick guy that now has injury issues. Gonna be a nasty 3 way with Fred Jackson getting about 50% of touches, Spiller with 40%, and maybe Dixon with 10%. I'll let the next guy over pay.

So much wrong packed into a single short post is pretty impressive.

LOL! Oh. I'm sorry, I didn't realize he's the bellcow in BUF. Fred Jackson is still there right? Fred Jackson has about the same amount of carries AND receptions as Spiller but Fred gets more TD's. Yeah, he's older, but he's productive and they trust him. So like I said, why slobber all over Spiller and over pay, when you can get Fred Jackson later and get more points? Sure, in dynasty leagues Spiller holds more value, but Spiller turns 27 in August...he's not as young as people think. I'd take Spiller if he dropped and was a bargain price. He's only had 1 good year 2 years ago.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I won't be touching him unless it is late and he is a bargain. He is one of the overhyped guys that never pans out since Fred Jackson is the prettiest girl in that backfield. He's basically a gimmick guy that now has injury issues. Gonna be a nasty 3 way with Fred Jackson getting about 50% of touches, Spiller with 40%, and maybe Dixon with 10%. I'll let the next guy over pay.

So much wrong packed into a single short post is pretty impressive.

LOL! Oh. I'm sorry, I didn't realize he's the bellcow in BUF. Fred Jackson is still there right? Fred Jackson has about the same amount of carries AND receptions as Spiller but Fred gets more TD's. Yeah, he's older, but he's productive and they trust him. So like I said, why slobber all over Spiller and over pay, when you can get Fred Jackson later and get more points? Sure, in dynasty leagues Spiller holds more value, but Spiller turns 27 in August...he's not as young as people think. I'd take Spiller if he dropped and was a bargain price. He's only had 1 good year 2 years ago.

You should probably look at the historical stats of 33 year old RBs in the NFL prior to drafting Fred Jackson this year. As far as Spiller being "a gimmick guy" who "never pans out" -- you should probably look at his 2012 stat line. You also must have missed that Spiller played with a high ankle sprain all last year. Oh yeah, please find for me where I said that Spiller was Buffalo's "bell cow" also -- Spiller doesn't need any more touches than he's had the last two years to be a huge bargain in FF -- he just needs to not sprain his ankle again.

 

[Ted Mullins]

I won't be touching him unless it is late and he is a bargain. He is one of the overhyped guys that never pans out since Fred Jackson is the prettiest girl in that backfield. He's basically a gimmick guy that now has injury issues. Gonna be a nasty 3 way with Fred Jackson getting about 50% of touches, Spiller with 40%, and maybe Dixon with 10%. I'll let the next guy over pay.

Avoid at your own peril, as Spiller will most certainly have a nice bounce back year. I'm not worried at all about FJax, and Dixon is nothing more than a short yardage back. A healthy Spiller will carve out a nice role in that O, and I'm predicting he vaults back into the top 10. I fully expect his ADP to creep higher and higher as we get closer to the actual season.

I agree with most of this but if I draft him I will be a little worried about FJax personally. The track record for 33 year old RBs isn't good but then again neither is the track record for 32 year olds and FJax still looked pretty solid. Additionally, the FJax/Dixon combo feels like a guarantee that he won't get the big workload and possible goalline carries some people (including me) thought were feasible last year.

Basically I still like his chances of performing well and think he can be a top 10 RB on 250 touches, but I think some of the perceived upside from last year is not there anymore. It didn't even come close to happening, but before last season when I took Spiller I thought it was possible that they rode him and gave him goalline work similar to Jamaal Charles last year - I don't think there's any real chance of it this year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I won't be touching him unless it is late and he is a bargain. He is one of the overhyped guys that never pans out since Fred Jackson is the prettiest girl in that backfield. He's basically a gimmick guy that now has injury issues. Gonna be a nasty 3 way with Fred Jackson getting about 50% of touches, Spiller with 40%, and maybe Dixon with 10%. I'll let the next guy over pay.

Avoid at your own peril, as Spiller will most certainly have a nice bounce back year. I'm not worried at all about FJax, and Dixon is nothing more than a short yardage back. A healthy Spiller will carve out a nice role in that O, and I'm predicting he vaults back into the top 10. I fully expect his ADP to creep higher and higher as we get closer to the actual season.

I agree with most of this but if I draft him I will be a little worried about FJax personally. The track record for 33 year old RBs isn't good but then again neither is the track record for 32 year olds and FJax still looked pretty solid. Additionally, the FJax/Dixon combo feels like a guarantee that he won't get the big workload and possible goalline carries some people (including me) thought were feasible last year.Basically I still like his chances of performing well and think he can be a top 10 RB on 250 touches, but I think some of the perceived upside from last year is not there anymore. It didn't even come close to happening, but before last season when I took Spiller I thought it was possible that they rode him and gave him goalline work similar to Jamaal Charles last year - I don't think there's any real chance of it this year.

We'll see where he falls in next years drafts, but I think he's going to be a major value. I'll be thrilled with him as a RB2 personally. It's true that he's probably not going to be 2013 Jamaal Charles, but realistically, I'll take the under on any and every RB being 2013 Jamaal Charles, including Charles himself. Those kind of seasons don't happen all that often. If Spiller can be RB6 - RB12 on 250ish touches at a late 2nd or 3rd round pricetag, I'm more than good with that.

 

[GroveDiesel]

It was clear that he had no burst last year. He consistently was unable to turn the corner or shoot through holes. If he has his speed back, I expect 2012 Spiller rather than 2013 Spiller.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It was clear that he had no burst last year. He consistently was unable to turn the corner or shoot through holes. If he has his speed back, I expect 2012 Spiller rather than 2013 Spiller.

A HAS is a pretty debilitating injury for a RB. It was very clearly a major factor in his drop off last year. Also, IMO it says a lot about Spiller's toughness that he gutted it out and only missed one game with an injury that often shelves guys for a month. If anything, that's a feather in his cap, not a sign he's fragile or injury prone.

 

[Ted Mullins]

I won't be touching him unless it is late and he is a bargain. He is one of the overhyped guys that never pans out since Fred Jackson is the prettiest girl in that backfield. He's basically a gimmick guy that now has injury issues. Gonna be a nasty 3 way with Fred Jackson getting about 50% of touches, Spiller with 40%, and maybe Dixon with 10%. I'll let the next guy over pay.

Avoid at your own peril, as Spiller will most certainly have a nice bounce back year. I'm not worried at all about FJax, and Dixon is nothing more than a short yardage back. A healthy Spiller will carve out a nice role in that O, and I'm predicting he vaults back into the top 10. I fully expect his ADP to creep higher and higher as we get closer to the actual season.

I agree with most of this but if I draft him I will be a little worried about FJax personally. The track record for 33 year old RBs isn't good but then again neither is the track record for 32 year olds and FJax still looked pretty solid. Additionally, the FJax/Dixon combo feels like a guarantee that he won't get the big workload and possible goalline carries some people (including me) thought were feasible last year.Basically I still like his chances of performing well and think he can be a top 10 RB on 250 touches, but I think some of the perceived upside from last year is not there anymore. It didn't even come close to happening, but before last season when I took Spiller I thought it was possible that they rode him and gave him goalline work similar to Jamaal Charles last year - I don't think there's any real chance of it this year.

We'll see where he falls in next years drafts, but I think he's going to be a major value. I'll be thrilled with him as a RB2 personally. It's true that he's probably not going to be 2013 Jamaal Charles, but realistically, I'll take the under on any and every RB being 2013 Jamaal Charles, including Charles himself. Those kind of seasons don't happen all that often. If Spiller can be RB6 - RB12 on 250ish touches at a late 2nd or 3rd round pricetag, I'm more than good with that.

Agree with this - mainly just meant that the crazy upside of last year isn't there this time around IMO. If he is going 20-30 picks later than last year that is likely just fine for me. He was clearly hampered by the ankle injury last year and still looked like the fastest guy on the field at times. It's also worth noting that they were run heavy and have an uptempo pace, which led to the most carries in the league last year - their offense was better suited to have multiple reliable fantasy RBs than most. Hopefully it stays the same way.

 

[Kyle_Wright]

http://dynastyfootballwarehouse.com/cleaning-up-a-big-spiller/

Written By: Kyle Wright

Follow on Twitter: @Kyle_Wright

The 2013 NFL season was suppose to be CJ Spiller’s big year. It looked like he was about to become one of the NFL’s elite running backs. Instead it was filled with injuries, frustration, lack of production, and a cloudy outlook on Spiller’s future. Matt Southall recently wrote a great article, “Buffalo Bills 2014 RB Outlook: Spiller or Jackson?”. Definitely advise everyone to check it out. Matt suggests that CJ Spillers arrow is still pointing down, but I tend to think his arrow is still pointing up.

I was one of his biggest supporters going into the 2013 season due to his monster year in 2012, where he rushed for 1244 yards on only 207 carries (6.0 yards per carry) and 6 touchdowns. Add on an additional 43 receptions for 459 yards and 2 touchdowns and Spiller had a season to remember. His season impressed me so much, that I believed CJ Spiller was worthy of the first overall pick in last years fantasy football drafts in August. To be honest, I still feel like he should be considered a top running back in fantasy drafts going into the 2014 NFL season. His talent is on par with Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy and we all know how great of a year they both had last year. So what happened last year with CJ Spiller? What is his outlook for 2014 and beyond? Let’s take a look at the issues Spiller faced in 2013.

Injuries

Spiller suffered a high ankle sprain in the week 4 win over the 2012 Super Bowl Champions Baltimore Ravens. From that point forward Spiller lacked lateral agility and the ability to plant his foot. If you have seen CJ Spiller play over the past two years you know this is what makes him so special as a player. If you watched any Buffalo games last year, you would have noticed after almost every carry Spiller would limp over to the sideline for rest. Spiller had this to say about his 2013 season:

”I don’t have any concerns or any doubts what my role will be, I think we just had an obstacle in the road when I got injured in Week 4. It kind of hindered some of the things that we were able to do with me”.

When you look back at the year, Spiller’s ankle injury may have been worse than reported by Doug Marrone and the Bills. When he was given additional rest to rehab his injury he was actually very productive. Spiller was held out of the week 8 game versus the Saints due to injury but came back strong after an extra week of rest versus the Chiefs in week 9 and rushed 12 times for 116 yards with 2 receptions for 39 yards. Same thing happened after Buffalo’s week 12 bye. Spiller exploded for 149 yards rushing on only 15 carries, a rushing touchdown, and 2 receptions for 8 yards against the Falcons. After an extra week of rest in each occasion, it was obvious Spiller’s high ankle was the issue for his lack of production as compared to the 2012 season.

There are several structures potentially damaged with a high ankle sprain. These include ligaments that connect the tibia to the fibula known as the tibfib ligaments, as well as a tissue called the interosseous membrane. The severity of this injury often depends on how many of these structures are damaged. The recovery time frame varies from 8 weeks to 6 months and this is why the high ankle sprain is so dreaded. Spiller was never given an opportunity to have more than two weeks of rest before game day.

Even former NFL scout, Matt Williamson stated:

”He rarely looked like himself, and I don’t think he’s all of the sudden forgotten how to be fast, explosive, and I think he’s entering the prime of his career and just never looked super healthy to me.”

He went on to say that he sees Spiller as more of a Darren Sproles or Percy Harvin kind of player than a true feature back that pounds the ball up the middle. Now I don’t agree with that last statement that Spiller isn’t a “true feature back”. Spiller is mostly known for his game-breaking speed, but it was his elusiveness and ability to break tackles in 2012 that caught my eye. ProFootballFocus.com graded Spiller with a 94.6 rating for the 2012 season which led all running backs. In fact, he was significantly better than all running backs with at least 200 carries or more.

Off The Field Distractions

Last August, CJ Spiller’s step-grandfather unfortunately shot and killed two men and injured two others before taking his own life in Lake Butler, FL. This happened during the 2013 preseason, which resulted in Spiller flying back home to Florida after the preseason loss versus the Washington Redskins. Following the incident, Spiller had to deal with his family’s loss. Much like what happened to Stevie Johnson late last season, and Marcell Dareus in 2012, one could understand why Spiller would not be focused primarily on football to start the year which could result in a lack of production.

Spiller’s Future With The Bills

The Buffalo Bills extended safety Aaron Williams to a 4 year 26 million dollar contract with 14.625 guaranteed, which really hurt there resigning efforts of free agent Jarius Byrd. This saves them some cap space but they still will need to save additional cap room. Buffalo has a lot of young talented players that they have publicly stated they would like to sign extensions over the next two years. Those players include Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, left tackle Cordy Glenn, cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and Pro-Bowl running back CJ Spiller. Fred Jackson is still a productive player but he is no spring chicken (33 years old). Bills GM Doug Whaley recently stated they want to keep their best players, while also building the team through the draft.

Looking at the contracts for Buffalo’s running backs, you realize Spiller is the future of Buffalo’s offense.

Fred Jackson: 2014 (2.45 million salary), 2015 (UFA)

CJ Spiller: 2014 (3.499 million salary), 2015 (2.197 million salary), 2015 (UFA)

There is no way the Bills bring back Fred Jackson in 2015. He has had a great career as a Buffalo Bill and will likely be on Buffalo’s Wall of Fame one day, but in today’s NFL you don’t keep a 35 year old running back on your roster. CJ Spiller is the future of the Bills franchise and dynasty football players should be aware of this situation.

Fantasy Outlook

Spiller burned those who spent a first round pick on him in 2013, but he is one of the few running backs in the NFL who could be a fantasy superstar on any given year. Many fantasy football players are going to be hesitant to spend a high draft pick (first 3 rounds) on a player like CJ Spiller. I do not share these concerns. Although injuries derailed his season, he remained a RB2 throughout the year on literally one good leg. I choose to view this as impressive. Spiller has proven he is very productive when healthy. It is also obvious that he is in the Buffalo Bills long term plans. Old man Jackson is more and more likely to get dinged and less and less likely to carry his fair share of carries putting Spiller in position to capitalize. Combine that with his elite skills as a running back and pass catcher, and there is no reason not to have a talent like CJ Spiller on your fantasy team this coming season.

 

[Biabreakable]

2015 is a voidable year for Spiller correct? He will be 28 years old then and looking for what may be his final contract.

The Bills under HC Marone ran the ball more than any other team with 546 rushing attempts in 2013.

QB EJ Manuel had 53 of those rushing attempts in 10 games. The majority of the rest of the attempts were given to Jackson 206 and Spiller 202.

Spiller only played on 389 of the Bills 1116 total offensive snaps. That was only 33.5% of the offensive plays.

I expect the Bills to draft a RB who will compete with Jackson/Choice for the secondary role in a RBBC that can support 2 players. The investment the Bills make at the RB position will tell us more about the long term view of Spiller with the team.

I do not see Fred Jackson at 33 years old getting more than 100 carries in 2014 if Spiller is healthy all season and I would expect that distribution to shift more towards what it was in 2012. The Bills ran the ball 442 times in 2012 106 less attempts than in 2013. So there are more rushing attempts in play that may go to a rookie RB or Spiller.

I don't think Spiller will see more than 240 rushing attempts as they seem to have him on some sort of a snap count, but if fully healthy he does not need much more than 200 to have an effective season. Where I see the main value for Spiller being is in the passing game. In 2013 Jackson had 68 targets to Spillers 40. Spiller obviously more of a threat in the passing game so if he can increase the time he is on the field to 50-60% of the snaps I see those targets creeping up into the 60-80 range which would add a lot of yards. In 2012 Spiller had 56.4% of the offensive snaps compared to Jacksons 32.7%. 56% of 1116 would have Spiller on the field for 624 offensive snaps. So more or less what I am expecting for 2014 with either Jackson or a rookie spelling him.

Long term I am not sure if Spiller is in the Bills plans? They could go cheap with a rookie RB (or two) and save that money for other positions. Barring injury Spiller should have a good season looking for his next contract.

 

[domvin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl_JnB1yzGI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

this was on his high ankle sprain, he still pulled away from the defenders. Need to send some feelers to buy this guy cheaply...

 

[flysack]

There is no way the Bills bring back Fred Jackson in 2015. He has had a great career as a Buffalo Bill and will likely be on Buffalo’s Wall of Fame one day

OH COME ON.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl_JnB1yzGI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

this was on his high ankle sprain, he still pulled away from the defenders. Need to send some feelers to buy this guy cheaply...

what would you consider cheap?

 

[flysack]

If I were looking to trade for Spiller, I'd do it now before anything changes the sour taste he's left in people's mouths. Do it now, before the draft gets everyone re-excited and hopeful. Throw a weak line out there and see if his owner bites.

Because I can see Spiller becoming the FFA mancrush come July. Especially if the Bills draft a big OT in round 1. Especially when training camp reports start flooding the internet about how he can cut again. He'll go from a 4th-5th round redraft pick to that middle-to-low first rounder that everyone thinks is the ultimate "value pick" and thus gets inflated.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

If I were looking to trade for Spiller, I'd do it now before anything changes the sour taste he's left in people's mouths. Do it now, before the draft gets everyone re-excited and hopeful. Throw a weak line out there and see if his owner bites.Because I can see Spiller becoming the FFA mancrush come July. Especially if the Bills draft a big OT in round 1. Especially when training camp reports start flooding the internet about how he can cut again. He'll go from a 4th-5th round redraft pick to that middle-to-low first rounder that everyone thinks is the ultimate "value pick" and thus gets inflated.

As a Spiller owner, this is what I'm counting on to repair his trade value, personally.

 

[flysack]

If I were looking to trade for Spiller, I'd do it now before anything changes the sour taste he's left in people's mouths. Do it now, before the draft gets everyone re-excited and hopeful. Throw a weak line out there and see if his owner bites.Because I can see Spiller becoming the FFA mancrush come July. Especially if the Bills draft a big OT in round 1. Especially when training camp reports start flooding the internet about how he can cut again. He'll go from a 4th-5th round redraft pick to that middle-to-low first rounder that everyone thinks is the ultimate "value pick" and thus gets inflated.

As a Spiller owner, this is what I'm counting on to repair his trade value, personally.

Best to you. I'm a Spiller owner too and I'm staying put.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Sources tell CSN Philly that the Eagles tried to trade for C.J. Spiller before dealing for Darren Sproles.
The Bills said they weren't interested in moving Spiller, so the Eagles never even made an offer. Chip Kelly then settled for Sproles, a player four years older and far inferior in the run game. It's another sign that the Eagles knew they'd be moving on from DeSean Jackson well before March 28, and also an indication that the Bills remain committed to Spiller despite last year's injury-marred disaster.

Related: Eagles, Darren Sproles

Source: CSN Philly

 

[BustedKnuckles]

I drank that kool-aid last year....and it spilled all over my season making a big mess...no thanks

 

[Faust]

Are you willing to trust C.J. Spiller this year?By Jamey Eisenberg | Senior Fantasy Writer

I just finished the preseason outlooks for the Bills, and the player of interest for all Fantasy owners is obviously C.J. Spiller. So let's take a closer look at his potential for this year.

Spiller was clearly a bust in 2013. He was drafted at No. 5 overall on average in the first round but finished as the No. 27 Fantasy running back in standard leagues, behind such stalwarts as Donald Brown, Rashard Mendenhall and Rashad Jennings. His backfield teammate, Fred Jackson, was No. 10.

There were several factors that contributed to Spiller's failure after he was a star in 2012 with 1,700 total yards and eight touchdowns before dropping to 1,100 total yards and two touchdowns last year. None bigger was his health.

He dealt with a preseason knee injury, a quad injury in Week 3 and then an ankle injury in Week 4, which he never fully recovered from. Coach Doug Marrone told me at the NFL owners meeting in March that "health" was the biggest problem for Spiller in 2013.

"I'm curious to see him when he's healthy and doesn't have those nagging injuries," Marrone said. "Those injuries kept him back a little bit. He was in a tough position. He wasn't in a position where he wanted to take a couple of weeks off. He's not that type of kid. He wants to play. He would feel like he would let down the team. He'd fight and come back every week and play. He's a playmaker, and we want to get him to make more plays."

Jackson staying healthy was another problem. He played in only 10 games in 2012, which allowed Spiller to have a more featured role, but Jackson gutted through his own ailments last year to play every game. It was the first time since 2010 that Jackson, 33, played more than 10 games, so there's a good chance he could miss time this year.

But Spiller is now a risky Fantasy option for many owners, especially those who were burned in 2013. He goes from a first-round pick last year to more of a Round 3 or 4 selection now. In our latest mock draft, Spiller was drafted at No. 31 overall.

I'm still willing to gamble on Spiller as a No. 2 running back, but I understand the potential downfall. He has one good season in his four-year career, Jackson is still in Buffalo and he might never live up to his immense level of talent.

But if he does, and you draft him in Round 3 or later, then he could be the difference maker for your Fantasy championship.

 

[Faust]

Bills-Titans talks cloud C.J. Spiller's future

By Mike Rodak | ESPN.com

April 4, 2014

When the Tennessee Titans released running back Chris Johnson earlier Friday, each NFL Nation reporter was polled on his or her team's chances of signing Johnson. For the Bills, I said their interest was 'low,' because of the presence of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller in the backfield.

Then came news Friday afternoon from ESPN Titans reporter Paul Kuharsky, who reported that the Bills and Miami Dolphins were the two teams closest to making a move with the Titans before Johnson was released.

It's a nugget that could be as much about C.J. Spiller as it is about Johnson.

With Spiller and Jackson, there would be few opportunities for Johnson to get carries. That wouldn't be the most efficient use of Johnson, who has rushed for at least 1,000 yards each season since being drafted in 2008, so something would have to give.

Both Spiller and Jackson will become free agents this season. Jackson is 33 -- and has faced injury issues in both knees -- but he performed much more consistently than Spiller last season. It would be almost unimaginable for the Bills to move on from Jackson, their offensive captain, in favor of Johnson.

That leaves Spiller, who never got into a groove in first-year offensive coordinator Nate Hackett's system. Although Spiller averaged 4.6 yards per carry, he averaged fewer than three yards per carry in six games. On plays with at least five yards to gain for a first down, Spiller lost yardage on 14.4 percent of his runs, the worst rate among NFL running backs with a qualifying amount of carries.

Hampered by an ankle injury, Spiller played 34 percent of offensive snaps, considerably less than Jackson's 56 percent and the fewest since Spiller's rookie season. Spiller's 185 receiving yards were also the fewest since he was a rookie.

Spiller said following the season that he would not request a trade.

“A trade? Nah. I don’t have any reason to. [i’m] satisfied,” he said on Dec. 30. “You know, I don’t have any, you know, bad feelings with this organization or with [CEO] Russ [brandon] or with, you know, [general manager] Doug Whaley. You know, I like Coach [Doug] Marrone and I like [running backs] Coach [Tyrone] Wheatley, so I have no reason to go nowhere else, but you know that’s stuff I can’t control. But I wouldn’t go up there and ask for one.”

Spiller has a $5.9 million cap hit this season, the sixth-highest on the Bills' roster. However, trading Spiller would only save about $1.8 million Still, there would be incentive for the Bills to trade Spiller this offseason instead of losing him to the open market next offseason.

Now that the Titans have released Johnson, the Bills have the opportunity to sign him without having to give up anything in a trade. If they choose to pursue Johnson further, it would continue to cast doubt on Spiller's future.

 

[ctrlaltdefeat]

Eagles tried to trade for spiller and were denied. Why would the bills want CJ?

 

[flysack]

Eagles tried to trade for spiller and were denied. Why would the bills want CJ?

Your answer will come this year. If he continues to go in the 3rd and 4th round of fantasy drafts, he's going to be the steal of 2014. Just watch.

 

[flysack]

BTW, CJ Spiller and McCoy in the same backfield would be almost as sick as Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders at Oak St.

Give props to Kelly for trying.

 

[Faust]

Inside the projection: C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson

By Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer

If you want an idea of how important running the ball was to the Bills last season, take note: They're the only team in the NFL that had two running backs top 200 carries and 230 total touches each. Nothing's promised in terms of workload this year but you can be sure that Doug Marrone & Co. aren't thinking about veering from a run-dominant team to a pass-happy offense, particularly considering the still-inexperienced state of their passing attack.

Which brings us to C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson , a pair of polarizing Fantasy running backs. Spiller might have the most potential of any running back in the NFL, but he disappointed last season as he tried to play through injuries and not really flash his trademark explosiveness. Jackson, meanwhile, was outstanding in 2013 when he played through injuries and racked up a ridiculous 10 total touchdowns. But he officially has 1,688 carries and 256 catches over his career including his time playing indoor football and is 33 years old. Red flags galore.

If you go back and watch the Bills games, you can tell they love to run but aren't inclined to put Spiller out there for 20 carries per game from week to week. That goes double after injuries impacted his play. It probably means that so long as Jackson is healthy and effective, he'll cut into Spiller's work including the two-minute offense and the goal line. As we project the Bills running backs for 2014, we're going with those estimations.

Spiller has missed just three games in four seasons, so it's not like he's injury prone to the point where he has to sit out. Even on the conservative side I'd count on him for 14 games. Jackson's missed big chunks of time in the two seasons prior to last -- enough evidence combined with his age and history of work to suggest he plays fewer games this season? Fairly or not, I'm projecting him to miss three weeks -- not the six he had in 2011 or 2012, but not the 16 games he played last season.

If we agree that Spiller was "at his healthiest" for 2013 in Weeks 1 through 4 and 13 through 17, then we get an idea of how much the coaches leaned on him: 16.0 carries and 2.3 catches per in those games. In those same games Jackson averaged 12.7 carries and 3.0 grabs per game. I might keep these averages steady for 2014, maybe taking away a bit from both of them since the Bills might be inclined to (or have to) throw a little bit more. Peel off 0.5 carries per game off of Spiller and a full carry per game off Jackson, making Spiller a 217-carry, 32-catch running back and Jackson a 152-carry, 39-catch player.

Spiller's rushing average last year, injuries and all, was 4.6 per. To me, that's impressive considering it takes into account his whole season and the eight games with under 4.0 yards per game he had. Oddly enough his rushing average actually dipped by a tenth of a yard in those nine games we recognized him as being "at his healthiest" while his receiving average was on par at 5.6 per. Are we assuming a perfectly healthy Spiller for 2014? Probably not, but he still should be afforded a strong rushing average given his skills and ability to do so when hurt. I like that 4.6 rushing average with a very slight increase in receiving -- call it 5.8. That's 998 rush yards and 185 receiving yards for Spiller. Nearly 1,200 yards, likely delivered inconsistently from week to week.

Can we trust the elder Jackson to maintain the 4.3 rush average or 8.2 receiving average he had last season? Before you answer "no way," check this out: When he shared with a healthy-ish Spiller in those nine games, he actually averaged 4.9 yards per carry and 9.0 yards per catch. So we could assume that a lighter workload helped Jackson. We're already accounting for less work this year as the team keeps his wear-and-tear in mind. Might he be better than the year-end totals he had after all? The knee-jerk reaction is to crush his projected averages because he's old and has had a lot of work. But I think we might be surprised by this guy if we did that. I bet he can still hit 4.3 yards per carry with maybe 7.7 yards per catch. That's 654 rush yards and 300 receiving yards.

Where Jackson falters in yardage he can make up in touchdowns. As the Bills' main goal-line guy he'll be entitled to a number of scores that way. Seven of his nine touchdowns came from 5 yards or closer last season. Again, it's counter-intuitive to project a lot of touchdowns for a veteran but Jackson could give you six or seven touchdowns. I'd give him seven if I thought he'd play 16 games -- might even make it eight -- but since we're projecting him for 13 games I'm going for six.

I want to give Spiller a bunch of touchdowns but can't realistically expect him to do it. One major factor is because Jackson will swipe those goal-line touches from him. Of the 12 rushing touchdowns Spiller has in his career, two have come from inside the 5 and in both cases Jackson didn't play in the game. But what Spiller can do is break a run for a long score, though if you're counting on a lot of those you'll be sorry. I'm going with six rushing touchdowns and another one receiving for Spiller.

Figure a pair of fumbles for Spiller (he's done all right since his rookie year) and one for Jackson (who didn't lose a fumble last season but did lose four the previous year).

Final early projections: Spiller -- 217 carries, 998 yards, six touchdowns; 32 catches, 185 receiving yards, one more score, two fumbles. Jackson -- 152 carries, 654 rush yards, six touchdowns; 39 catches, 300 yards, one fumble.

 

[Faust]

Buffalo Bills tried to trade up for Carlos Hyde in draft

By Gregg Rosenthal

Around The League Editor

Excerpt:

"They got our guy," said director of player personnel Jim Monos, per the team's official website. "You win some, you lose some."

The Bills viewed running back as a big need despite the presence of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller on the roster. While we don't agree with LeSean McCoy's take that Brown will start in Buffalo, the Bills are getting ready for life without Jackson and Spiller. Jackson is 34 years old, while Spiller is coming off an uneven season under coach Doug Marrone.

Buffalo's desire to draft Hyde, a bruising three-down back, is another sign they don't see Spiller as an every-down player.

The Bills wanted Hyde and settled for Bryce Brown. I still think that Spiller is more effective in a specific role as part of a RBBC backfield, and if he stays healthy this year, he can be valuable.

 

[werdnoynek]

Buffalo Bills tried to trade up for Carlos Hyde in draft

By Gregg Rosenthal

Around The League Editor

Excerpt:

"They got our guy," said director of player personnel Jim Monos, per the team's official website. "You win some, you lose some."

The Bills viewed running back as a big need despite the presence of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller on the roster. While we don't agree with LeSean McCoy's take that Brown will start in Buffalo, the Bills are getting ready for life without Jackson and Spiller. Jackson is 34 years old, while Spiller is coming off an uneven season under coach Doug Marrone.

Buffalo's desire to draft Hyde, a bruising three-down back, is another sign they don't see Spiller as an every-down player.

The Bills wanted Hyde and settled for Bryce Brown. I still think that Spiller is more effective in a specific role as part of a RBBC backfield, and if he stays healthy this year, he can be valuable.

Spiller is a home run hitter and can score any time he touches it. I'm all about him being in a time share and hopefully staying fresh & healthy throughout the season. He doesn't need volume to be a top 5 back in PPR IMO.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He doesn't need volume to be a top 5 back in PPR IMO.

This is exactly where the Spiller detractors completely miss the boat with their refrain of "he's not a workhorse." Well, duh. He is a guy who will get 250ish touches, and put up a strong RB1 FF season with that number of touches in 2012. Spiller doesn't need a workhorse touch count to be huge value; he just needs to not play a big chunk of the year with a high ankle sprain, which is what happened last year. Buffalo RBs handled the ball 527 (!) times last year -- Spiller can produce RB1 numbers even with less than half of that total.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Man, I am absolutely a fan of Spiller's talent but the fact that they are trying to add other backs as well now worries me. Not sure how much they'll use Bryce Brown, but he has definitely looked good at times. Bills do run enough that they could have a couple of solid fantasy backs.

I agree that he could be a top RB again on 250 touches, but if there are other RBs with greater TD chances and more touches around the same price, I will likely stay away. A lot of things have to go just right to average 6 YPC and 10 yds per reception again. We'll see where he is getting drafted in August.

 

[menobrown]

I don't view the trade for Bryce or attempt to land Hyde as evidence that the team is down on Spiller or does not feel he can be a feature back.I'd view it as being more worried about Fred holding up another year and impending FA of Spiller and Fred.

In terms of Spiller not needing high volume to be a top 5 back. That's true to some extent but I think he's gong to need to be involved in the passing game to pull it off. If he remains in the 30/40 reception range I would not count on it and would think it more likely he falls just outside the top 10 than inside the top 5.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld take:

The Bills tried to trade up in the second round to select Ohio State RB Carlos Hyde.
The Bills couldn't make a deal work before the 49ers took Hyde at No. 57 overall, so they settled for a Bryce Brown trade. Regardless, their dogged pursuit of running back help doesn't instill much long-term confidence in C.J. Spiller, who can opt out of his rookie contract after this season. They've likely settled on Spiller as a complementary piece, scrapping the notion of using him as a true feature back. Fred Jackson is 33 years old and in the final year of his deal as well.

Related: Carlos Hyde, Fred Jackson

Source: buffalobills.com

 

[werdnoynek]

I don't view the trade for Bryce or attempt to land Hyde as evidence that the team is down on Spiller or does not feel he can be a feature back.I'd view it as being more worried about Fred holding up another year and impending FA of Spiller and Fred.

In terms of Spiller not needing high volume to be a top 5 back. That's true to some extent but I think he's gong to need to be involved in the passing game to pull it off. If he remains in the 30/40 reception range I would not count on it and would think it more likely he falls just outside the top 10 than inside the top 5.

They'd be foolish not to use him in passing game. I think it's something he excels at.

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't view the trade for Bryce or attempt to land Hyde as evidence that the team is down on Spiller or does not feel he can be a feature back.I'd view it as being more worried about Fred holding up another year and impending FA of Spiller and Fred.

In terms of Spiller not needing high volume to be a top 5 back. That's true to some extent but I think he's gong to need to be involved in the passing game to pull it off. If he remains in the 30/40 reception range I would not count on it and would think it more likely he falls just outside the top 10 than inside the top 5.

Of course it's a indication that Buffalo isn't interested in Spiller as a lead back. It's obvious they only view him as a complementary back.

 

[menobrown]

I don't view the trade for Bryce or attempt to land Hyde as evidence that the team is down on Spiller or does not feel he can be a feature back.I'd view it as being more worried about Fred holding up another year and impending FA of Spiller and Fred.

In terms of Spiller not needing high volume to be a top 5 back. That's true to some extent but I think he's gong to need to be involved in the passing game to pull it off. If he remains in the 30/40 reception range I would not count on it and would think it more likely he falls just outside the top 10 than inside the top 5.

Of course it's a indication that Buffalo isn't interested in Spiller as a lead back. It's obvious they only view him as a complementary back.

No not really. They led the NFL with most carries from their RB's last season. Entering the draft they had two RB's worthy of being on an NFL roster. Both are about to hit FA and one of them was the oldest RB in the NFL last season. The only "of course" here is that they needed to add another RB.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

If hes not out in space hes next to useless

 

[cloppbeast]

I don't view the trade for Bryce or attempt to land Hyde as evidence that the team is down on Spiller or does not feel he can be a feature back.I'd view it as being more worried about Fred holding up another year and impending FA of Spiller and Fred.

In terms of Spiller not needing high volume to be a top 5 back. That's true to some extent but I think he's gong to need to be involved in the passing game to pull it off. If he remains in the 30/40 reception range I would not count on it and would think it more likely he falls just outside the top 10 than inside the top 5.

Of course it's a indication that Buffalo isn't interested in Spiller as a lead back. It's obvious they only view him as a complementary back.

No not really. They led the NFL with most carries from their RB's last season. Entering the draft they had two RB's worthy of being on an NFL roster. Both are about to hit FA and one of them was the oldest RB in the NFL last season. The only "of course" here is that they needed to add another RB.

Spiller and Jackson split 400 carries last season - such usage requires multiple backs. Adding running backs may indicate they intend to continue running the ball a lot. As long as Spiller fits in that mix, he can produce in fantasy. Plus, since they oughta, the Bills might use him more in the passing game next year.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Bryce Brown as an eventual replacement for Fred Jackson makes a lot of sense. He is still going to take a piece of the the pie next year as well, though. Is there a source where we can see who played on 3rd downs more last year? It definitely seemed like Fred got a lot of the 3rd down and hurry up work, but that could have been to go easy on Spiller since he was playing hurt pretty much all year.

Like I said, I'm a huge fan of Spiller's talent, I just think with 3 competent backs that there is a worst case scenario (without him being injured) where he only has 200-220 touches and only scores 5 or 6 times.

 

[menobrown]

Is there a source where we can see who played on 3rd downs more last year? It definitely seemed like Fred got a lot of the 3rd down and hurry up work

I don't know how to locate that exact information but per PFF Fred got 382 snaps on passing downs vs just 165 for Spiller.

 

[Slapdash]

I don't view the trade for Bryce or attempt to land Hyde as evidence that the team is down on Spiller or does not feel he can be a feature back.I'd view it as being more worried about Fred holding up another year and impending FA of Spiller and Fred.

In terms of Spiller not needing high volume to be a top 5 back. That's true to some extent but I think he's gong to need to be involved in the passing game to pull it off. If he remains in the 30/40 reception range I would not count on it and would think it more likely he falls just outside the top 10 than inside the top 5.

They'd be foolish not to use him in passing game. I think it's something he excels at.

Then they're foolish

 

[Ted Mullins]

Is there a source where we can see who played on 3rd downs more last year? It definitely seemed like Fred got a lot of the 3rd down and hurry up work

I don't know how to locate that exact information but per PFF Fred got 382 snaps on passing downs vs just 165 for Spiller.

This is good info, thanks. I figured it'd skew heavily towards F Jax, but that could be due to wanting to go easy on Spiller. He definitely played hurt for 10+ games.

Spiller's obviously a phenomenal talent out in space and it'd make a ton of sense to get him 50+ catches, but unfortunately that doesn't mean it will necessarily happen.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

I just can't trust Spiller anymore. I'm done.

 

[OC Zed]

Is there a source where we can see who played on 3rd downs more last year? It definitely seemed like Fred got a lot of the 3rd down and hurry up work

I don't know how to locate that exact information but per PFF Fred got 382 snaps on passing downs vs just 165 for Spiller.

Fred was primarily used on 3rd downs and hurry-up formations because he's the better pass blocker (that's always been the case). The huge disparity in snaps has more to do with Spiller's ankle injury than anything else though.

 

[KCitons]

I just can't trust Spiller anymore. I'm done.

It's guys like you, that allow guys like me, to pick up Spiller for cheap.

 

[JetMaxx]

No link but I remember hearing that the Eagles inquired about Spiller and were rejected so they must like him to a certain extent.

 

[Faust]

No link but I remember hearing that the Eagles inquired about Spiller and were rejected so they must like him to a certain extent.

See post # 220 in this thread for the details.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

No link but I remember hearing that the Eagles inquired about Spiller and were rejected so they must like him to a certain extent.

I'm sure they like him just fine; he's just not a 350 touch kind of guy, and the Bills run the ball a ton. I'd guess Brown was acquired because Fred Jackson is ancient for a RB, and to give them options if Spiller tries to break the bank next year, similar to the Titans signing Greene last year and the Chargers signing Donald Brown this year. Giving any RB a massive contract doesn't make any sense in the current environment.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

I just can't trust Spiller anymore. I'm done.

It's guys like you, that allow guys like me, to pick up Spiller for cheap.

and its guys like you that will jump too soon

 

[zamboni]

He doesn't need volume to be a top 5 back in PPR IMO.

This is exactly where the Spiller detractors completely miss the boat with their refrain of "he's not a workhorse." Well, duh. He is a guy who will get 250ish touches, and put up a strong RB1 FF season with that number of touches in 2012. Spiller doesn't need a workhorse touch count to be huge value; he just needs to not play a big chunk of the year with a high ankle sprain, which is what happened last year. Buffalo RBs handled the ball 527 (!) times last year -- Spiller can produce RB1 numbers even with less than half of that total.

This is where I have concern.

When folks say he doesn't need a lot of volume, that may be true if he has a year like 2012 or is Jamaal Charles lite. Question is: can you bank on that? I don't think I could - last year could be closer to the norm, and who knows how the touches may be divvied with Brown also in the picture.