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Official CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter seahawk 17
- Start date
rick6668
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Maybe I'll be able to sell him to someone who didn't watch the game?
Well...can't think of a better way to have a coming out party than to win the game for his team in overtime with a beautiful 80 td td reception.
Payton needs to focus on Ingram and spiller. Robinson needs to be less involved.
I'd also love to see Ingram and spiller on the field together.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Stays on my roster for meow.
zamboni
Footballguy
Big time OT play that paid off big for the Saints and fantasy teams alike. But for fantasy purposes, the limited touches is still a concern. Can't bank on long TDs like that every week - maybe that game winner will finally be the catalyst for Payton to give Spiller more touches.
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BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Awesome play. That was old Saints football, that's what they did with Sproles & Bush, but for some bizarre reason they just aren't giving him the snaps. Brees also looked him off when open on the crucial red zone play when Brees was sacked and had to kick a FG, I have no idea why he did that as Spiller was very open.
So you think this split is going to continue? 2 carries and 4 targets through regulation isn't going to cut it, but Robinson had 6 carries and 3 targets, too. They've got to get that situation rectified. Not sure why Spiller is third in the pecking order, but I seriously doubt that continues going forward. I'd like to see at least 6 carries and 6 targets a game going forward - making him kind of like a rich man's Dion Lewis (similar workload, better player).
I also saw the play SaintsInDome2006 is talking about with the sack. I wasn't sure if Brees saw a LB coming up or not, thus risking INT/tackle for loss, but Spiller was definitely first read and he chose to move on in his progression and ended up taking a sack. =/
I obviously hadn't seen Spiller much this season, but did anyone else think he looks bigger?
Raleigh Engineers
Footballguy
I also thought he looked bigger/taller in a Saints uniform than he did with the Bills. Maybe it's the color of uniform or playing on turf?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Most would agree Spiller is their best option in the passing game. But should we assume his workload will improve? The same old story with Spiller.
I think we should. Khiry didn't do himself any favors this week and Spiller looked really good on the one series in which he was featured. I can't recall exactly, but I feel like he got the ball three times in a row and picked up a couple first downs utilizing speed to get to the edge (rather than just good blocking getting him the yards). The 80 yard TD probably earned him some cred with Brees (whose quotes seem very loyal to Ingram) and cemented Payton's opinion that he needs to get Spiller more involved like he was saying last week.
Either way you look at it, his usage is trending up. 7-16-21 snaps in the last three weeks (compared to Ingram: 51-44-41, Robinson: 16-15-11).
He does look bigger indeed. I thought I was imagining; glad to hear others have noticed. With his burners seemingly intact, should be a handful as he picks up steam during the season. Wouldn't be surprised if this is the guy winning people unexpected titles in December.
Shorter term, with both Cooks and Brees struggling (relatively speaking), Payton is pretty much forced to give Ingram and Spiller the monster share of touches. There is simply nowhere else to go with the ball.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Maybe the reason NO continues to trot out Robinson is because he doesn't telegraph play choice as much as Ingram/Spiller? I have no data to back this up, but seeing as how Robinson doesn't do anything the combination of Ingram and Spiller can't do better I'm at a loss. Really, Payton just loves the rbbc so we might not need to look any further than that.
I do think Spiller will continue to see a small bump in usage as the season progresses but at no point do I see him suddenly absorbing all of Robinson's touches sans injury. I wouldn't just straight up trade him for nothing as I think he'll have flex value this year but what we saw yesterday is likely his ceiling. As you can tell with how I'm treating Ivory, I like to shop RBs with red flags that have flashed their ceilings.
Here are the snaps/utilization numbers from last night..
Ingram - 56% - 24 (17 carries, 7 targets)
Spiller - 29% - 7 (2 carries, 5 targets)
Robinson - 15% - 10 (6 carries, 4 targets)
Snaps are up but again utilization is inexplicably low.
No debate on how to treat red-flag RBs, but why do you think what we saw last night is Spiller's ceiling? His usage so far has been fairly minor and he has looked quite good in this limited duty. So surely there is both room and rationale to use him more. I don't think that extra usage will come at the expense of Ingram or Robinson, but more likely at the expense of the TEs and WRs.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
I thought he looked a little bigger. He still seems a bit gimpy. Just didn't seem as fluid on his big run. Almost like a labored effort.
It's a little reminiscent of Pierre Thomas - his utilization was low (I want to say around 25%) so they definitely weren't showing their hand by putting him in the game, but Spiller is low enough that they aren't broadcasting their intentions. I'm just looking for touches. I don't care how many snaps he has to play to get them. As Mathews and Ingram owners have found out in previous years, 60%+ utilization isn't all that fun.
Personally, I don't think last night was his ceiling. If he can become their 2 minute drill RB, his ceiling has yet to be seen. I mean, look at what Theo Riddick has done the past two weeks, pretty much only playing in the 2 minute drill. Either way, I think we'll see more designed plays for Spiller going forward and wouldn't be shocked to see a few more of these homerun plays. Brees has the touch and Spiller has the wheels.
P.S. I missed your Ivory reference. What did you mean? Are you shopping Ivory? What is his red flag? Injuries? I wouldn't sweat a quad injury. Muscle injuries* are the best kind - lots of blood flow so they heal quickly. He looked healed up on Sunday. I'd keep riding that train if I was you. Chan Gailey runs a nice offense. There will be many touchdowns.
*With the exception of hamstring injuries if your name is Miles Austin.
ETA: nevermind, just saw your post in the Ivory thread
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Spiller is currently RB7 in PPR this week (could change with Rawls/Abdullah tonight but I doubt it). You don't think mid level RB1 #s are his ceiling? Last night wasn't his snap/touch ceiling but from a pure statistical viewpoint I think 20 points is about as good as it's ever going to get this year. I don't realistically expect to be able to sell Spiller high coming off a SNF game where half of his production came in OT but hey, it's worth a try.
As for Ivory, I thought you may have read that post before this one.
What a huge play. He will finally get fed a little more now but I wouldn't get overly excited. It's going to be tough sledding figuring out when the big weeks will come. Or just plug and play no matter what if that's what you need.
Yes he looks like he put on a few pounds but who in here said he looked taller?
Yes he looks like he put on a few pounds but who in here said he looked taller?
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Even Ingram was like
Holy ####...that dude can motor '' !!!!!
Holy ####...that dude can motor '' !!!!!
SameSongNDance - It is possible that RB7 is one of his better finishes this year, but don't forget that Sproles finished around there on the season on about 5 carries and 8 targets a game. I don't think it unreasonable to think Spiller could produce similarly to Sproles if given that kind of usage. I think 5-8 carries and 8 targets could become the norm for Spiller and if you like Dion Lewis with that kind of usage, you should really like Spiller!
VaTerp
Footballguy
This is the 2nd time you've referenced Dion Lewis. But Lewis is getting WAY more snaps and touches then Spiller. And even as Spiller's usage slowly trend up he is 3rdon his team in both RB snaps and touches while Lewis leads his teams in those and if not for a complete 2nd half blowout where he rested with some other starters he'd have an even larger percentage of snaps and touches.
I don't think that's a particularly good comparison.
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It's because he's come up in the Ivory discussion with SSD and because he is a good comparison. First of all, Spiller has outsnapped Robinson in both of the last two games, so no, he's not 3rd on his team. You think Lewis is going to get more than 10 carries a game? You think Lewis is going to end up with 100 receptions? I don't. I think he'll end up with similar touches to Spiller in the second half of the season. Also, Blount seems more durable than Ingram, providing more upside for Spiller.
You shouldn't bother selling now. Sell him after 1-2 weeks, when he has solidified his 5-6 receptions per game.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Still don't think its a good comparison. Yes, Spiller has outsnapped Robinson the last 2 games but Robinson still out touched him in both games. And he is 3rd on the team in total RB snaps right now. Obviously b/c he missed the 1st game but he's still 3rd. And he's not getting the same high leverage touches that Ingram or Robinson have gotten to this point. So I understand its trending up slowly for Spiller but right now he's still 3rd in the pecking order in terms of usage.
No, I don't think Lewis will end up with 100 receptions but thats a bit of a strawman. He's 1st in the pecking order and getting more valuable touches. I wont play the guessing game on durability but as things stand right now Ingram is a much bigger barrier to Spiller than Blount is to Lewis. Ingram leads all RBs with 22 catches while Blount has a total of 1 catch all season.
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Lewis is out snapping Blount by a lot. It was 15-0 in 1st qtr and 13-7(something like that. Adam harstad posted it in the Lewis thread). Lewis seems shiftier but doesn't have the straight line speed of spiller. Spiller is always a threat to hit the home run which Lewis doesn't seem like to me at least. I think Lewis will out touch spiller and mcdaniels seems like the better coordinator right now.
If the reason is obvious and it does not pertain to anything on the field then why even state it? That would be like me saying Foster is 4th on his team in total snaps at RB right now and expecting that to mean something to you. What does it actually mean? Nothing. There ARE a few important things to note: 1) Ingram's snaps are decreasing 2) Robinson's snaps are decreasing 3) Spiller's snaps are increasing 4) Ingram is averaging 3.6 ypc 5) Spiller got 1st downs on 4 of his 7 touches 6) Spiller just won the game for them on an explosive play
The 100 receptions question was not a straw man at all. I was just trying to force you to think about the numbers. Going forward, I expect those two players to have a similar number of touches. I can't guess what's going on with BB, but it sure appears Blount had to earn his way back into a role and I'd say he did exactly that with last week's performance. Plus, we've seen players go from being featured to barely used in this system. Why assume Dion is the exception?At least we know Sean Payton doesn't partake in that brand on nonsense. Regardless, I just brought up the comp to get people to view this from a different perspective. People are falling over themselves for a guy who will probably get 8 carries and 8 targets a game while discounting another, more talented guy who will probably get the same usage.
The most important thing to watch for, though, will be who is on the field in the 4th quarter while they are down by 7+. Known in 2015 as the Theo Riddick role. Known previously as the Joique Bell role (2012) and the Earnest Graham/Kregg Lumkin role (2011). If he's slow to pick up systems, as the previous poster mentioned, then it very well may not be him which would be disappointing as he seems well suited for that role.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Lewis is the lead dog in NE in terms of RB snaps and touches. Going forward I don't see this changing. There will be games like week 3 where Blount gets more carries when their offense is in more of a grind it out mode but NE is a team that primarily is going to spread people out and rely on Brady and the short passing game. Lewis fits perfectly in that. He's getting red zone touches and has no real competition for the skill set he brings to that offense.
Spiller is clearly 2nd to Ingram in snaps and touches and has been out-touched by Robinson the last 2 weeks even as his snaps have ticked up. I bring it up b/c its fact. Yes going forward I expect Spiller to get more touches than Robinson, hopefully starting this week but whether its been easing him back in after the knee surgery or that he's slow to pick up the offense, Payton has shown that he is comfortable using Robinson in situations that you would think Spiller would be on the field. That's an additional barrier to Spiller that Lewis does not have.
Most importantly, a point that I'm trying to "force you to think about the numbers" on is that Ingram leads all NFL RBs with 22 catches. This is huge since a lot of Spillers value is tied to his use in the passing game. Payton is using Ingram a lot in that role and he's been surprisingly, at least to me, effective in it. Lewis does not have this barrier with Blount or really any other RB on the NE roster.
So that's why I don't think its a good comparison. Ingram and Blount represent vastly different threats to snaps and usage. While Spiller's role will increase he will not be the lead back in NO barring an injury to Ingram. Lewis is the lead back in NE and I don't see that changing going forward. Being the lead back in the NE offense with little competition for the passing game role is a markedly advantageous position to be the 2nd back in NO with competition for passing game involvement from both the lead back and a 3rd back who the coach has shown he is comfortable using.
Spiller is clearly 2nd to Ingram in snaps and touches and has been out-touched by Robinson the last 2 weeks even as his snaps have ticked up. I bring it up b/c its fact. Yes going forward I expect Spiller to get more touches than Robinson, hopefully starting this week but whether its been easing him back in after the knee surgery or that he's slow to pick up the offense, Payton has shown that he is comfortable using Robinson in situations that you would think Spiller would be on the field. That's an additional barrier to Spiller that Lewis does not have.
Most importantly, a point that I'm trying to "force you to think about the numbers" on is that Ingram leads all NFL RBs with 22 catches. This is huge since a lot of Spillers value is tied to his use in the passing game. Payton is using Ingram a lot in that role and he's been surprisingly, at least to me, effective in it. Lewis does not have this barrier with Blount or really any other RB on the NE roster.
So that's why I don't think its a good comparison. Ingram and Blount represent vastly different threats to snaps and usage. While Spiller's role will increase he will not be the lead back in NO barring an injury to Ingram. Lewis is the lead back in NE and I don't see that changing going forward. Being the lead back in the NE offense with little competition for the passing game role is a markedly advantageous position to be the 2nd back in NO with competition for passing game involvement from both the lead back and a 3rd back who the coach has shown he is comfortable using.
You don't really have a point there with Ingram's receptions. It isn't like there is a small, finite number of RB receptions to go around. They can throw to Ingram while he's in the game or let him rush or let him block. Doesn't matter to Spiller owners. All that matters is that they give Spiller some targets when he's in the game. And the fact that Ingram has been getting a lot of targets so far has to be a good thing. Clearly passing to the RB is a big part of their game plan. Whoever is in the game is going to get some targets.VaTerp said:
I don't know what you were replying to with "I bring it up bc it's a fact". I think it was in response to me pointing out that your comment - about Spiller being third in total snaps due to injury - was totally pointless. However, you seem to be acting like I was saying that about something else. Either way, all that matters is what's ahead. I think we have reason to hope for 8 rushes and 8 targets per game. Should he put up 5+ ypc while Ingram is stuck at <4 then maybe he gets more. I don't know. Puts those of us who own both players in a bit of a tricky spot.
I guess we can agree to disagree about Lewis. You seem to think he's going to end up with like 200 rushes and 80 receptions and I don't. Either that or you agree that he'll end up with a similar amount of touches as Spiller going forward yet you get points for depth chart position or offensive snaps played.
Darren Sproles took 'uh-oh' factor, but Saints regaining it with C.J. Spiller:
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/post/_/id/18520/darren-sproles-took-uh-oh-factor-but-saints-regaining-it-with-c-j-spiller
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/post/_/id/18520/darren-sproles-took-uh-oh-factor-but-saints-regaining-it-with-c-j-spiller
Rick James
Footballguy
This staff is so stupid.
Uncle Grandpa
Footballguy
This kid is electric on the field. Let's make sure he's on the field at least 5 snaps a game.
Rick James
Footballguy
Saints suck
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
If I lose from staring him, it's my fault. Chasing points and trusting Peyton--deadly mistakes.
VaTerp
Footballguy
I'm done with Spiller until Payton gets his head out of his ####, which I'm not convinced will happen while he's still in NOLA.
every time I see it. But I'll just go back to worrying about depth charts and snaps played.
And as an owner of both this makes me
every time I see it. But I'll just go back to worrying about depth charts and snaps played. Do you believe Dion Lewis is a better football player? If so, that's what is hilarious. If he was, he wouldn't have just signed a paltry backup level extension.I'm done with Spiller until Payton gets his head out of his ####, which I'm not convinced will happen while he's still in NOLA.
And as an owner of both this makes me
YoUnG GuNz
Footballguy
Dion Lewis is a great football player. As an owner of Spiller I can say at this time Lewis is 5x the player of one dimensional Spiller.
VaTerp
Footballguy
1) My whole point was that you stated Spiller and Lewis would have similar workloads and usage going forward and I disagreed. As evidenced again yesterday when Spiller was 3rd in RB touches on his team while Lewis was first. Lewis continues to be the lead back on his team in terms of usage and a clearly established role as the passing down back. Spiller is still 3rd on his team in usage and does not have the clear role as the passing down back as many of us assumed he would. Will that change significantly going forward? Right now, I don't see any evidence that it will. I do think Spiller eventually gets more touches than Robinson but Ingram is still the lead back with a substantial role in the passing game.Do you believe Dion Lewis is a better football player? If so, that's what is hilarious. If he was, he wouldn't have just signed a paltry backup level extension.I'm done with Spiller until Payton gets his head out of his ####, which I'm not convinced will happen while he's still in NOLA.
And as an owner of both this makes me
2) Just like your snide comment to me about getting points for depth chart position and snaps played, I don't play in any leagues that award points for what kind of contract a NFL player signed or for who anonymous internet posters think is the better player. And I've been a huge fan of Spiller's talent since he was at Clemson but right now, as hilarious as you may find it, I do think Lewis is the better football player. He's a better inside runner, better at pass pro, and better at catching the ball. Spiller is the much faster and explosive player but that doesnt make him a better football player. And if the rumors of Spiller being a slow study are true then knowing the playbook is part of being a football player as well and apparently NE's coaches feel much more comfortable with Lewis's knowledge of their offense than NO's coaches do with Spiller's knowledge.
Since you think their usage will be similar going forward and that Spiller is that much of a better player then would you trade Lewis for Spiller straight up in redraft right now?
3) Since this is a Spiller thread I'll just focus on him moving forward. You claimed I had no point with Ingrams reception totals, which I think is completely off base. We all know the Saints throw to their RBs more than any other team in the league but there is not an infinite number of receptions to go around. Again, many of us assumed that Spiller would have the clear passing game role in the Saints backfield. But at this point that hasnt materialized. Ingram success there reduces the opportunities and therefore production for Spiller.
Going forward, I hope you're right. That Spiller gets more and more of a workload and established a clear role as the Saints passing down RB. But we are now 1/3 of the way through the FF season and the coaching staff has shown no inclination to do so for whatever reason. While his usage should increase I have zero confidence that it increases to a role equal to that of Lewis', who I think is a top 10 PPR the ROY. At this point, I see Spiller as maybe top 25ish.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I believe Dion Lewis is playing better than CJ right now. I also don't put too much stock in the whole contract value thing. I think Lewis's contract vs Spiller's contract primarily goes to show why the Patriots are the best run organization in the NFL and the Saints are horribly situated for cap space going forward.Do you believe Dion Lewis is a better football player? If so, that's what is hilarious. If he was, he wouldn't have just signed a paltry backup level extension.I'm done with Spiller until Payton gets his head out of his ####, which I'm not convinced will happen while he's still in NOLA.
And as an owner of both this makes me
Plus I think a guy like Lewis made the right decision taking the short money. It took him a long time to make it to where he is and he had to overcome a serious injury. He may have just wanted some immediate security knowing how fragile an NFL career can be. And he will only be 27 when this contract is up which will give a team like the Saints an opportunity to overpay him then.
matuski
Footballguy
Dion >>>>>>>>>>>> Spiller. Nothing to argue about at this point.Do you believe Dion Lewis is a better football player? If so, that's what is hilarious. If he was, he wouldn't have just signed a paltry backup level extension.I'm done with Spiller until Payton gets his head out of his ####, which I'm not convinced will happen while he's still in NOLA.
And as an owner of both this makes me
I love how "what have you done for me lately?" and situation have such a huge influence on talent evaluation here. Demarco Murray was supposedly the best RB in football last year and he's suddenly chopped liver this year. Spiller is not getting touches and suddenly Dion Lewis is better than him.
Given usage and situation, Dion is currently a better fantasy play, but talent wise, no.
Given usage and situation, Dion is currently a better fantasy play, but talent wise, no.
