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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (18 Viewers)

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Missing the daily numbers we were getting posted before, where’s the best links to follow accurate info? Thanks guys. 


Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

2/12 - 490 reported cases

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead

3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead

3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead

3/28 - 581,528 reported cases - 27,551 dead - USA 123,428 cases - 2,211 dead

3/29 - 640,507 reported cases - 30,666 dead - USA 142,047 cases - 2,484 dead

3/30 - 702,911 reported cases - 34,476 dead - USA 163,479 cases - 3,148 dead

3/31 - 777,151 reported cases - 38,846 dead - USA 188,530 cases - 3,889 dead

4/1 - 852,910 reported cases - 43,863 dead - USA 214,482 cases - 5,093 dead

4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA  244,320 cases - 5,897 dead 

4/3 - 1,016,190 reported cases - 55,818 dead - USA 276,965 cases - 7,391 dead

4/4 - 1,119,804 reported cases - 61,362 dead - USA 311,357 cases - 8,452 dead

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

First 100k day for new cases.  Yay.

 
It either stops the particle size or it doesn’t. It doesn’t.  A much better solution is for symptomatic people to stay home. 
Sorry, but I disagree emphatically with anyone espousing solutions that suggest we should ONLY consider solutions that are 100% effective.  Agree that sypmtomatic people should stay home, but asymptomatic carriers cough and sneeze too.  And if a mask reduces spray by 90% that's SIGNIFICANTLY better than no mask.  With all due respect, please stop thinking in absolutes.  It's neither helpful nor practical.

 
I see a few responses in this thread about golf, so I guess there's a sort of smattering of opinions already.

But I'm seriously considering going to City Park to walk 9. Anyone have any thoughts on this? Bad idea, dumb, good idea? I might have to purchase at a window, but otherwise by myself, light bag, no cart. Good idea, bad idea?
Good idea

 
Peak infections by end of April, peak deaths by mid-May...then what.  Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but no one has ever accused me of that before. :)
If the shutdown ends before enough immunity exists, then there is another peak after the shutdown ends, and that could be an even bigger peak. 

Any hope of this ending in May requires that there is a large part of the population got it but were asymptomatic, and thus a large percentage of the population is immune. That may in fact be true... but we don't know that. 

 
Particles come in varying sizes. The larger ones carry the highest viral loads and are the ones most likely to be stopped by a less-than-ideal mask.
 Wouldn’t  those particles be more typical from a cough or sneeze? It seems to be the mask requirement is in reaction to asymptomatic spread. I don’t see how a mask provides much benefit there. 

But I’m not an expert, so I’ll wear whatever mask Incan make the next time I go to the store. 

 
Guys, we should stop wearing seatbelts because it doesn’t prevent 100% of fatalities in car accidents.

Also, we should stop having sex because condoms and vasectomies don’t prevent pregnancy 100% of the the time. 
 

I mean obviously everybody wearing cotton around their faces is no better than people coughing on one another in public because droplets are tiny. 

 
Stuff is pretty serious here in Long Island. Never imagined anything like this in real life. My first time waiting outside the supermarket. The line wraps around the back of the building and through the parking lot. Everyone wearing masks and spaced 10ft+ apart. I guess they’re only allowing so many people into the store at a time. 
 

It’s eery. It’s also so quiet out. A car every now and then, but mostly listening to birds, more different types of birds, and louder birds, than I’ve ever remembered hearing.  All just very weird. 


Well, one of my cousins in Italy has it. She's a nurse.

Apparently troops outside in the streets. You can't go out without a certificate (one per family) or you get fined. Masks and gloves to go shopping, wait outside until it's your turn. Weddings getting cancelled.

Oof.
This is exactly what Italy was doing when I spoke with my family there back on March 13th.  That was over 3 weeks ago.  At least we've finally come around over here.  Or at least in NYC.

:(

 
If the shutdown ends before enough immunity exists, then there is another peak after the shutdown ends, and that could be an even bigger peak. 

Any hope of this ending in May requires that there is a large part of the population got it but were asymptomatic, and thus a large percentage of the population is immune. That may in fact be true... but we don't know that. 
ok, that's one way of looking at it.  I prefer to imagine that we can tamp this back down to become s. korea and then move to swift, targetted outbreak suppression strategies that may require frequent by hyper-local lock downs.  

 
 So those people would need to be isolated from their families and probably given significant gov't support, unless I'm misunderstanding.
Yes, but just just start with the younger people who either live alone or with one other person who is in their age range.  

What I'm wondering is if it's feasible to return the 20-25 yo group back to work if we've flattened the curve and have enough hospital space for those who do become ill?  The elderly or high risk would remain in the stay at home category until there's a vaccine or treatment.

 
If the shutdown ends before enough immunity exists, then there is another peak after the shutdown ends, and that could be an even bigger peak. 

Any hope of this ending in May requires that there is a large part of the population got it but were asymptomatic, and thus a large percentage of the population is immune. That may in fact be true... but we don't know that. 
I know you can't answer, but any opinions on when we will be able to answer some of these questions?  Have any other countries determined this answer?

 
I know you can't answer, but any opinions on when we will be able to answer some of these questions?  Have any other countries determined this answer?
Canadian government gave a "July as best case scenario" leak a few days back... and it was considered the first country to do so.

Which aligns with the 4mos of funding that has been given to citizens that require it.

 
Yes, but just just start with the younger people who either live alone or with one other person who is in their age range.  

What I'm wondering is if it's feasible to return the 20-25 yo group back to work if we've flattened the curve and have enough hospital space for those who do become ill?  The elderly or high risk would remain in the stay at home category until there's a vaccine or treatment.
What you are suggesting is happening naturally (meaning without it being defined by some authority, such as government). Those who are high risk but had essential role jobs, have taken themselves out of those jobs to protect themselves. Those that were in non-essential role jobs and not a high risk are filling in those gaps. 

So I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I'm just wondering what you would do differently. If it's a matter of turning on some non-essential role jobs, then all you are doing is moving where the line is drawn. And as soon as your start moving it, non-essential businesses owners are going to rush in to push the line to their benefit. That could result in some major unintended consequences. 

 
If the shutdown ends before enough immunity exists, then there is another peak after the shutdown ends, and that could be an even bigger peak. 

Any hope of this ending in May requires that there is a large part of the population got it but were asymptomatic, and thus a large percentage of the population is immune. That may in fact be true... but we don't know that. 
The only way that we would be at risk of a higher peak is if none of us adapted our behaviors at all. The reason the peaks are going to be significant right now is that we’ve had six weeks of spreading the virus without any mitigation or isolation efforts whatsoever.   Also very little testing.

So certain parts of the country will allow people to go back into nonessential businesses probably by the end of May. Hopefully those areas have isolated the active cases and have testing in place in case of flareup occurs again and hopefully they require the wearing of masks in public, social distancing whenever possible, limiting the number of large group gatherings and requiring any business that wants to be open to conform to limiting the number of people in the business and cleaning procedures.

 
Peak infections by end of April, peak deaths by mid-May...then what.  Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but no one has ever accused me of that before. :)
Peak infections depends on where you live. Kind of hard to make that blanket statement. I have a feeling in some locations/countries we are just getting started.

 
Actually, all masks, even home made ones, prevent more particles coming in (inward protection) than going out.

16 min mark

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=LeHIX2Sh_68
Thanks.  Very helpful and something I was not aware of. 

I would note however that when I wrote about masks, I was thinking surgical masks as they wear in Asian countries.  Which by your link are 1/2 as effective in preventing inward particles (vs. outward).  But what the video doesn't account for is the inward leakage via tear ducts.  My understanding is that these are a source of inward infection and obviously something masks can't help with.  So that's why I have always, although admittedly without any scientific data, assumed that masks are less effective in preventing inward particles because most people are not ALSO wearing eye protection.

That said, thank you so much for the link!

 
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Peak infections depends on where you live. Kind of hard to make that blanket statement. I have a feeling in some locations/countries we are just getting started.
Agree totally.  I was referring to peak US with complete acknowledgment that many regions will trail peak US.

 
I know you can't answer, but any opinions on when we will be able to answer some of these questions?  Have any other countries determined this answer?
Assuming zero tests, treatments, vaccines, etc... are developed, and that we assume zero people are experiencing the virus asymptomatic, then we can know the date, and it's a factor of how much the hospitals can flow the sick through until the population has enough immune people in it that the spread slows. This does NOT have to be herd immunity level. Return to work can be achieved before herd immunity, because enough immunity exists to slow the spread enough to keep the hospitals from overflowing. Best guess on this is 12 to 18 months.

But, because tests, treatments, vaccines, etc.... are being developed, it is likely those achievements reduce the time. And because some people, in fact maybe a lot of people got the virus and were asymptomatic, then the time is reduced even without achievements in tests, treatments vaccines, etc... To know the asymptomatic number will either require tests, or observation of hospitalizations reducing for no other reasons. 

 
What you are suggesting is happening naturally (meaning without it being defined by some authority, such as government). Those who are high risk but had essential role jobs, have taken themselves out of those jobs to protect themselves. Those that were in non-essential role jobs and not a high risk are filling in those gaps. 

So I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I'm just wondering what you would do differently. If it's a matter of turning on some non-essential role jobs, then all you are doing is moving where the line is drawn. And as soon as your start moving it, non-essential businesses owners are going to rush in to push the line to their benefit. That could result in some major unintended consequences. 
What if we said said gyms and bars could open up, but only employees and customers under 30 are allow to go back.  We already exclude younger people from those establishments.  The goal would be to have the virus sweep through that age group.  Once they are all immune, they can now take care of the older population.  Rinse and repeat for under 40.  

So what I'm suggesting is rather than letting it happen naturally, maybe we should attempt to have some control over it.  Just thinking out loud here.  Opening things back up in a month would be a total disaster and bunkering down just kicks the can down the road.

 
Still not enough tests?  

Because you don't if I want bananas and avocados for tonight or 4 days from now.  You don't know the size of baked potatoes I like.  You don't know it that boston butt is going to strike my fancy and create an idea necessitating other items.  You don't know the 6 things I've forgotten on my list that I'll remember once I walk past them.

But that's just me....

The reality is that stores having been moving away from employees being involved in check out.  Having them do the shopping seems is going to greatly increase labor costs.  Until there's a warehouse with automation picking the orders, I don't see employees shopping being cost effective.  Sure you're average FBG can afford to pay for it, but lots of people can't.
Someone posted earlier that one of their stores was already doing something similar to this and I think it is a great idea. It just makes so much sense. The physical store is closed and you do your order on-line. The market makes sure its website is updated. so you aren't  getting denied something--what you see, is what they have.  Limits still in place. You put your order in and are gven a time certain to pick up curbside. You now have all the workforce that was running cash registers and spending hours cleaning now filling orders. You wouldn't have people standing in line. You wouldn't have people coming into contact with one another and grocery clerks.

The downside is, like BNB posts, too many people want to pick out their items--but too bad. Also older non-tech involved people would have trouble navigating this process and this also would exclude people who like to pay in cash. 

Overall. this would just reduce so much interaction, while getting everyone what they need. 

 
Tom Dempsey has died.

- I have a signed autograph from him. Before Drew Brees he was the closest any Saint every got to the NFL record book. Still an amazing moment in NO sports history.

- RIP big guy. - Loveya.
As an 8 year old that 63 yard field goal was my first exposure to what would become over 50 years of Lion let downs, unfortunate tragedies, and constant losing.

 
Not worth it at this point.  The clique is piling on.

And it wasn't something in particular that I disagreed with, I just thought the way of he was expressing his thoughts was coming across in a very unhelpful manner (calling people ####### selfish, quoting a bible verse to try to prove "few" could be as construed as many as eight, etc.)
Everyone drop this. 

Everyone be helpful in this thread. Thank you. 

 
Sorry, but I disagree emphatically with anyone espousing solutions that suggest we should ONLY consider solutions that are 100% effective.  Agree that sypmtomatic people should stay home, but asymptomatic carriers cough and sneeze too.  And if a mask reduces spray by 90% that's SIGNIFICANTLY better than no mask.  With all due respect, please stop thinking in absolutes.  It's neither helpful nor practical.
With the virus, some solutions that are shy of absolute are little better than no prevention.

there are some good simulations around that show how problematic partial social distancing is compared to complete social distancing. 
I suspect the same thing will be true for many of these measures.  

 
I’m not willing to say never. If I’ve learned anything from this situation is that this is unpredictable, and you just never know what could happen. That said, the civil unrest/breakdown of society thing still seems highly unlikely to me. 
I’m not saying it’s going to be some sort of national mad max style breakdown.  But there will be areas that will go through significant social unrest including riots and attacking police and other officials who they may deem to be the cause of this.

Also, there are a lot of marginal communities where they’ve been doing OK during the economic boom cycles but absolutely fall apart when we go into recession. These include smaller cities that may be regional hubs for their counties or middle class or working class neighborhoods or exurbs of large metropolitan areas that are largely built on low to medium income housing and service economy working poor style incomes.

And then you have the millions of seniors who live alone or in communal nursing homes. They are incredibly vulnerable to this and rely on people coming into their homes or into their rooms to take care of them.  Many of the working poor also take care of older relatives in multi generational housing.

 
You may be correct, but I'm not sure the evidence shows this.
Recognizing that the CDC has been all over the map and may have already contradicted the below:

https://time.com/5794729/coronavirus-face-masks/

Relevant excerpt:

The science, according to the CDC, says that surgical masks won’t stop the wearer from inhaling small airborne particles, which can cause infection. Nor do these masks form a snug seal around the face. The CDC recommends surgical masks only for people who already show symptoms of coronavirus and must go outside, since wearing a mask can help prevent spreading the virus by protecting others nearby when you cough or sneeze.

Note: as it has been shown the asymptomatic individuals can spread the virus I am taking the above "already showing symptoms" and assuming it should read as "already infected whether showing symptoms or not"

 
I have been following this thread for months and can remember vividly the "just the flu, bro" arguments many here (myself included) battled against.  That those arguments have now turned into "I regret that I have but one grandparent to give for my economy" is depressing, but not surprising as the normalcy bias in most is VERY strong.  Further, as Doug B noted, there is a belief that all opinions here are equally valid regardless of how uninformed they are.  By that I mean, some of us have been here from the beginning and thus have a basis in the myriad data sources, academic articles, and country-by-country actions...whereas others seem to parachute in on page 565 and declare "we can't keep this up, it'll be Lord of the Flies by Thursday afternoon if this continues" without understanding that EVERY other country in Europe has been doing more and for longer than we have.  I am empathetic to the idea that we can't do THIS for 6 months, but I'm also depressed by the lack of imagination that wrongly suggests that our choices are:

  • Option 1: pretend the virus doesn't exists, everybody go back to work & travel BAU, good luck out there
  • Option 2: for the next 6 months nobody leave the house (except for groceries), no businesses invent new ways of serving customers, no treatment plans are developed to mitigate impacts, no wide scale testing and contact tracing will be allowed to tell us where outbreaks are occurring in real time
So please, let's stop writing as if ONLY the above two scenarios are in play.  Let's acknowledge that yes, we don't shut down the economy to save a single life, or 10, or 100, or 1000, or 10,000...but that at SOME point we do need to start having the conversation about the cost-benefit trade-off.  FTR, I don't believe we are anywhere NEAR that point but the point is a valid one and so IF you agree that we don't shut the economy down to save a single life then you must admit that there is a cost-benefit discussion that needs to be had at some point.  Conversely, if you can't understand that the economy is not coming back just because a govt official re-opens for biz in the midst of a raging pandemic then you need to spend some of your free time reading a few articles on consumer psychology.

Apologies, if the tone of the above comes off as arrogant/pedantic, am tired and desirous of raising the level of discourse in here to something more stimulating.  Specifically, would love to hear people discussing how we - as citizens, consumers, and workers/leaders, can help one another in May once we tamp this initial wave down.  How does mass transit in NYC function without sig recurrence?  How do we get people to wear masks?  Do we create 16 hour work days in our offices so that we can have two shifts and limit the chance of in-office outbreaks?  What else?
Our culture is very bad at nuance and grey. You see it in sports, politics and now pandemics. Sad, really.  

 
With the virus, some solutions that are shy of absolute are little better than no prevention.

there are some good simulations around that show how problematic partial social distancing is compared to complete social distancing. 
I suspect the same thing will be true for many of these measures.  
Have seen those and understand the impact of wrongly thinking that 90% action will result in 90% success when the reality is that 90% action will result in 10% success.  That said, my contention assumes: asymptomatic spread, post lock-down, and sig contact tracing.  In the model you are referencing imagine those dots are quickly sidelined after exposure due to extreme contact tracing.  THAT would be an interesting model to run, no?

 
What if we said said gyms and bars could open up, but only employees and customers under 30 are allow to go back.  We already exclude younger people from those establishments.  The goal would be to have the virus sweep through that age group.  Once they are all immune, they can now take care of the older population.  Rinse and repeat for under 40.  

So what I'm suggesting is rather than letting it happen naturally, maybe we should attempt to have some control over it.  Just thinking out loud here.  Opening things back up in a month would be a total disaster and bunkering down just kicks the can down the road.
Again, we are already doing that. The virus is spreading via essential role workers. Anything you do is just changing where we draw the line. 

 
Have seen those and understand the impact of wrongly thinking that 90% action will result in 90% success when the reality is that 90% action will result in 10% success.  That said, my contention assumes: asymptomatic spread, post lock-down, and sig contact tracing.  In the model you are referencing imagine those dots are quickly sidelined after exposure due to extreme contact tracing.  THAT would be an interesting model to run, no?
I’m pretty sure that was one of the runs.  
 

if we could effectively test, quarantine the sick, and contact trace and isolate them...we could go back to full society in no time.

we’re just not there yet.

 
probably immeasurable, but I wonder how many years of damage has been undone to the environment already due to this virus... and even moreso in 3mos time.

fascinating, and at leats one positive of all this... so long as we're here to enjoy it
I think this is a very good point and one that can easily be witnessed by the reduction of polution clouds. What I do wonder is with the push for everyone to wash their hands so often, this is leading to more anti-bacterial soap being introduced into our waste water system What effect will that have long-term down the road is unknown. 

 
I’m pretty sure that was one of the runs.  
 

if we could effectively test, quarantine the sick, and contact trace and isolate them...we could go back to full society in no time.

we’re just not there yet.
Agreed we aren't there yet.  If I implied anything other than stay the current course until this is tamped down, testing is ubiquitous, and contact tracing is wide-scale then I have been unclear.  Sounds like we are in general agreement on the big issues and are simply debating some of the stuff on the margin.  Stating the latter for clarity's sake.

 
Its important for people to realize a virus isnt like a cockroach. If you sealed up almost all the holes in your house, but left several big gaps around the house you wont really prevent them from getting in. A virus isnt going to sniff around and find gaps like that. 

It also isnt like a hole in your mask underwater. The air around you isnt 100% virus. 

 
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Still not enough tests?  

Because you don't if I want bananas and avocados for tonight or 4 days from now.  You don't know the size of baked potatoes I like.  You don't know it that boston butt is going to strike my fancy and create an idea necessitating other items.  You don't know the 6 things I've forgotten on my list that I'll remember once I walk past them.

But that's just me....

The reality is that stores having been moving away from employees being involved in check out.  Having them do the shopping seems is going to greatly increase labor costs.  Until there's a warehouse with automation picking the orders, I don't see employees shopping being cost effective.  Sure you're average FBG can afford to pay for it, but lots of people can't.
Risk my life for that extra item I may have forgotten or today's dinner need an Avodaco.   Got it.       We have a long way to go America.

 
I'd love to have the mods unhide the hidden comments at the beginning of this thread.  Some of them are quoted here and there, but you can't find the original (wildly wrong) post anymore.  
Who cares?  It doesn't really matter which posters on a random message board were right or wrong about the seriousness of this pandemic.  We're well beyond that right now.

 
I don’t get why folks just can’t scroll past it. I’ll never quite figure that out. I mean, the thread isn’t individually curated to each of our tastes. I find some of it valuable, some of it informative, some of it silly, some takes I agree with, some I don’t. I’ll never understand the guys who like “tell on” other posters by calling in the moderators and stuff.  If I don’t like something, I just scroll past it. It’s not gonna keep me up at night.  And it just seems to me like all the complaining to/pestering the moderators and owners is just more likely to lead to over moderation and the whole thing getting shut down. 
 

what do I know. 
:shrug:  
Reported

 
Anyone catch the Cuomo presser this morning? I understand from my dad that he said the numbers seem to be leveling out in NY, and he seemed optimistic we may possibly be plateauing. That would be awesome awesome news. And maybe mean we are a lot closer to “normalcy” than some of us had feared???

 
Anyone catch the Cuomo presser this morning? I understand from my dad that he said the numbers seem to be leveling out in NY, and he seemed optimistic we may possibly be plateauing. That would be awesome awesome news. And maybe mean we are a lot closer to “normalcy” than some of us had feared???
Nope, not unless more people have been infected than we think.  

 
Risk my life for that extra item I may have forgotten or today's dinner need an Avodaco.   Got it.       We have a long way to go America.
That wasn't the point of the post.  It was an explanation why we aren't already set up for home delivery.

 
Anyone catch the Cuomo presser this morning? I understand from my dad that he said the numbers seem to be leveling out in NY, and he seemed optimistic we may possibly be plateauing. That would be awesome awesome news. And maybe mean we are a lot closer to “normalcy” than some of us had feared???
It is good news in the he sense that the healthcare system has kept pace. I don’t think it has anything to do with getting closer to normalcy. Best I can tell, we have no plan for that. 

 
Actually, all masks, even home made ones, prevent more particles coming in (inward protection) than going out.

16 min mark

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=LeHIX2Sh_68
That's interesting and something I've argued against so far.  If true, then even more reason (and hopefully a way to get better compliance) to get people to wear them in public.  It's easier to convince people to wear them to protect themselves than to protect others.

Of note, this paper just came out.  While it doesn't address this SARS Cov-2 but coronavirus in general, it still demonstrates that wearing a mask seems to be quite effective in preventing spread of the virus. 

Either way, I think wearing masks in public needs to be universal.

 
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I've been trying to get a WF delivery for over two weeks now, with no luck.
Give this a try GB. I've been very successful refreshing at midnight. Hopefully it works for you. 

Amazon Fresh / Whole Foods deliveries has been a great option for us to avoid going to the grocery store. Availability of produce and meat can vary so ymmv but the biggest hurdle that I am sure most have encountered is lack of delivery times.

The best way to overcome the lack of delivery times is to refresh your order at Midnight. You'll notice that there are only 2 days available for deliveries, today and tomorrow. Every night at midnight (or 12:01 AM) the website will release the next days delivery times. If you're quick, you should be able to lock up a delivery time for the newly released day. 

We set up our cart early in he day, Amazon will remove unavailable items from your cart, we make substitutions at 11:30 PM then refresh at midnight. This has worked a few times for us, hopefully this helpful for others. Not sure if an Amazon Prime membership is needed but I believe it is. GL!

 
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