*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

[Mr Anonymous]

Not like that.

In the sense of trying to prove efficacy of a treatment. Researchers need to fine-tune their trials enough and repeat the trials enough so that the effect of a treatment is as isolated as possible from all other effects -- including natural healing.

In that sense -- in that narrow sense -- the lone fact that "an individual patient got better" doesn't indicate anything about the tested treatment. Many other facts have to be experimentally collected and brought to bear, and then -- in aggregate -- the researchers might have something.

See my post above this one. I believe people get that.

 

[Doug B]

He said it was a key point that needed to be made as if people were too dumb to realize that sometimes people recover in ways that can't automatically be chalked up to a drug.

"People too dumb" are your words, not mine.

It's nothing to do with being "dumb", or with intelligence at all. It's a lack of exposure to uncommon knowledge about how drug trials are conducted. And aside from that ... you realize how common it is for human beings -- of any level of intelligence -- to misplace cause and effect? It's one of many reasons even rock-solid research needs to be replicated and confirmed over and over.

 

[proteus126]

It's called a vaccine, and it likely will come in a year.  I'm sure in the meantime, we'll learn things that will help us treat people better...but I think that getting PPE equipment, ventilators, following social distancing guidelines, and staying in our homes will have a bigger impact.

Staying in home would work great.  But it ain't happening for too much longer.  People won't have it.  The economy won't have it.

Hand-washing, masks, and working port/starboard (sorry, Navy term) shifts at the office will help.  Better treatment protocols will help.  The vulnerable populations will need to take extreme precautions.

Testing and tracking is the name of the game going forward, because we are not staying at home for that much longer.  Who's had it and can now move freely.  Who's got it, and the test results of all their contacts.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

"People too dumb" are your words, not mine.

It's nothing to do with being "dumb", or with intelligence at all. It's a lack of exposure to uncommon knowledge about how drug trials are conducted. And aside from that ... you realize how common it is for human beings -- of any level of intelligence -- to misplace cause and effect? It's one of many reasons even rock-solid research needs to be replicated and confirmed over and over.

Yes my words. I think you were underestimating people with your post. After 613 pages, I think people get it when it comes to understanding how just because someone gets better after being given a drug, the drug might not be the sole, primary, or even any reason why they got better.

Let's move on and start sharing useful information again shall we? I know I'm ready.

 

[FBG26]

There has been some discussion about whether the death count is overstated or understated. At least in the UK, the death count only includes deaths occurring at a hospital. Maybe everybody here already assumed that to to be the case, but I found it interesting. 

link 

On Thursday, the U.K. reported 881 new deaths, down from the 938 recorded the day before. Italy recorded a high of 969 deaths on March 27 and Spain 950 deaths on April 2.

The figures may not be directly comparable, however. Not all the U.K. deaths reported each day occurred in the preceding 24 hours, and the total only includes deaths in hospitals.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

I'm a little surprised at how many here are actually getting "info" from facebook. 

 

[shader]

Staying in home would work great.  But it ain't happening for too much longer.  People won't have it.  The economy won't have it.

Hand-washing, masks, and working port/starboard (sorry, Navy term) shifts at the office will help.  Better treatment protocols will help.  The vulnerable populations will need to take extreme precautions.

Testing and tracking is the name of the game going forward, because we are not staying at home for that much longer.  Who's had it and can now move freely.  Who's got it, and the test results of all their contacts.

There are 400k active cases in the USA. We can't do contact tracing on those.  To say the resources aren't there for that would be an understatement.  Also, everyone realizes that we still aren't at the point where testing is sufficient.

So we MUST stay at home until rapid testing is online AND the number of active cases has fallen to a level where we can do contact tracing.  

If we don't, the R0 of this virus will cause the numbers to absolutely explode and the economy will truly fall apart.

 

[jplvr]

Last night I drank some wine and at about 1am I decided to go for a walk. It was glorious. Completely silent, not a car in sight. Walked to Wilshire Blvd, which normally would still have some traffic at that time but there was not a car on the road in either direction. I hadn't been out in a while other than to go to the store. It was very calming. Was taking really deep breaths, getting some fresh air into my lungs. I walk back to my street, still about 1/8 mile from home and on the sidewalk on the other side of the street I see someone walking towards me. As we get closer I see it's a guy,  about 6'5", floppy head of black hair. He's walking pretty fast. When we get to the point where we're going to pass each other I see out of the corner of my eye that he has stopped walking. I look over again as I'm walking and he's just standing there, staring at me. I look away for a few seconds and then I look back and he's still not moving, still staring. It's completely silent. No cars in the distance. No crickets. Nothing. After about 10 seconds I look back over my shoulder and see that he's crossing the street and walking towards me. My calm, happy buzz has turned to panic. Now I'm walking really fast and I hang a left onto a side street. I'm almost running but not quite. I remember I have my keys in my pocket and on the keychain there's a bottle opener that I can use as weapon if need be. I reach into my pocket and grab the keys, look over my shoulder and the guy has followed me down the side street. He's about 50 feet behind me. I start running. I'm a half a block away from Wilshire and i think maybe there will be cars there now. Maybe it'll make the guy stop following me. So i get to Wilshire (no cars), hang a right and look back and see the guy is stopped again. Just standing there, staring. I don't stop running until i get home. Have a keycard in my pocket that opens the garage to my building. I get into the garage, key into the door to the building, take the stairs up and into my apartment. Lock the door behind me. I'm sweating, heart beating about 200 bpm. Puked up the wine in my stomach. Kept looking out the peephole of my front door about every 30 seconds for about an hour. Passed out at some point. Sitting here now wondering if the guy was really following me? or if I was just being paranoid? Maybe he was walking toward his building? Maybe he stopped as to let me pass by before he turned back for home, to make it not seem like he was following me? Maybe he noticed that I kept looking back so he stopped walking again on that side street?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_u6Tt3PqIfQ

 

[parasaurolophus]

There are 400k active cases in the USA. We can't do contact tracing on those.  To say the resources aren't there for that would be an understatement.  Also, everyone realizes that we still aren't at the point where testing is sufficient.

So we MUST stay at home until rapid testing is online AND the number of active cases is at a level where we can do contact tracing.  

If we don't, the R0 of this virus will cause the numbers to absolutely explode and the economy will truly fall apart.

This is impossible. Sorry.

 

[chet]

[skeptic]

The first link you posted earlier gave an outline of a controlled and randomized study CytoDyn had in the near-future pipeline. The FDA may approve ... but the treatment is very far from proven right now. Got to isolate the effects of the drug from other factors. "Patients getting better" sounds to laymen like proof enough ... but we know that it's not.

Thinking about this some more ... does CytoDyn need FDA approval for off-label use of the drug? Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine didn't.

[/skeptic]

I appreciate your skepticism.  The application for emergency approval is 50/50 at best and would only be granted if the FDA agrees with the data presented--that is that the immune systems of all patients improved because of the drug.  The FDA knows the drug is safe because over 800 patients have taken the drug over multiple years and none of them has ever experienced an adverse side effect.  Over 70 hospitals have requested the drug--that demand is coming after conversations with the doctor who treated the patients in NY.  That's the strongest word of mouth endorsement available as he doesn't have any vested interest other than to help patients.  I do have a vested interest but obviously also realize there's an enormous opportunity to help people.  

The drug has no FDA approved uses yet so there's no off label use possible.

 

[shader]

This is impossible. Sorry.

What if the date was June 1st? That seems possible, both in terms of people being able to do it, and the CDC having enough time to bring rapid testing and contact teams online. 

 

[Doug B]

I appreciate your skepticism.  The application for emergency approval is 50/50 at best and would only be granted if the FDA agrees with the data presented--that is that the immune systems of all patients improved because of the drug.  The FDA knows the drug is safe because over 800 patients have taken the drug over multiple years and none of them has ever experienced and adverse side effect.  Over 70 hospitals have requested the drug--that demand is coming after conversations with the doctor who treated the patients in NY.  That's the strongest word of mouth endorsement available as he doesn't have any vested interest other than to help patients.  I do have a vested interest but obviously also realize there's an enormous opportunity to help people.  

The drug has no FDA approved uses yet so there's no off label use possible.

Thanks for your response, chet.

Re: the point in red --I was going from memory. It wasn't capital-A approval, but 'Fast Track' status that was granted after controlled trials for other diseases were completed. This was detailed in one of your links from earlier today:

About Leronlimab (PRO 140)
The FDA has granted a “Fast Track” designation to CytoDyn for two potential indications of leronlimab for deadly diseases. The first as a combination therapy with HAART for HIV-infected patients and the second is for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer.

 

[proteus126]

So we MUST stay at home until rapid testing is online AND the number of active cases has fallen to a level where we can do contact tracing.  

I agree (if the goal is to best fight the virus - economy be darned).

But it won't happen.  Momentum to ease off will build as the good news stories build over the next few weeks.  The guy at the top really wants to open things up.  Its going to happen.

 

[shader]

I agree (if the goal is to best fight the virus - economy be darned).

But it won't happen.  Momentum to ease off will build as the good news stories build over the next few weeks.  The guy at the top really wants to open things up.  Its going to happen.

Just saw this in Ohio

https://twitter.com/ben_schwartz24/status/1248315706648571905?s=21

 

[rockaction]

I agree (if the goal is to best fight the virus - economy be darned).

But it won't happen.  Momentum to ease off will build as the good news stories build over the next few weeks.  The guy at the top really wants to open things up.  Its going to happen.

States seem to be the final arbiters. Feds are pulling vital things away anyway; the states may have no choice but to keep the orders in place out of necessity. There's minimal progress being made on testing and vaccination, which is another compelling reason we're buying time, if I'm not mistaken. 

 

[Doug B]

There's minimal progress being made on testing and vaccination, which is another compelling reason we're buying time, if I'm not mistaken. 

Not vaccination (probably a few years away), but improved treatment. Also getting cases low enough to where contact tracing for most of them becomes feasible. And lastly, to keep manageable the numbers needing care in any one healthcare system.

 

[H Jass]

Just saw this in Ohio

https://twitter.com/ben_schwartz24/status/1248315706648571905?s=21

Just what I love about social media...and let me say 100% definitively I'm not picking on you shader for posting this.  In the past a dozen maroons on a street corner would reach about 100 people and eye-rolled to oblivion.  Social media blows these guys up and it becomes "uh oh...look what's happening to folks' resolve in Ohio".  I know for a fact that DeWine/Acton have wide-ranging support for their actions and that's not changing right now.  Can't speak to middle of July, but right now, the 'protestors' fit firmly in mouth-breather category.

 

[rockaction]

Not vaccination (probably a few years away), but improved treatment. Also getting cases low enough to where contact tracing for most of them becomes feasible. And lastly, to keep manageable the numbers needing care in any one healthcare system.

Yep to all of these. I've been getting pushback on hopes for vaccination when I write colloquially. Perhaps I should use "improved treatment" for clarity. I also am aware of the need to manage numbers, which was the first reason I comprehended that was given for the social distancing and attempt at curve flattening -- so that hospitals, facilities, and health care workers wouldn't be overrun with the sick.

 

[the moops]

Just saw this in Ohio

https://twitter.com/ben_schwartz24/status/1248315706648571905?s=21

Oof

 

[DaVinci]

I recognize that this is walking the line of political talk, but Pence blocks Drs. Birx and Fauci from appearing on CNN because CNN won’t air the full daily press briefing.

Not cool. 

 

[JaxBill]

@JoshuaGrubbsPhD: Easily one of the best social distancing ads I’ve seen https://twitter.com/OHdeptofhealth/status/1248249304600449024/video/1

 

[trader jake]

Staying in home would work great.  But it ain't happening for too much longer.  People won't have it.  The economy won't have it.

Without a vaccine, effective and proven treatments, testing for anyone/anytime, or some other similar scenario the shelter in place orders should stay in place.  Without that we'll see a huge surge of new cases shortly after any 'leave your homes' order is given...only this time people will be less likely to go back to shelter at home if needed (like most are doing now).

Leaving our homes too early will end up being way worse for the economy than sucking it up until we have the ability to keep the curve flattened outside of our houses.

 

[skol asylum]

Maybe, but the flu vaccines are only effective 40-60% of the time, and only for about a year.

edit: and I only mentioned flu because it was the first thing that came to mind. Perhaps a better phrasing would have been "not every vaccine is 100% effective for life".

I think that's because the flu has so many strains because it mutates quite a bit. Sounds like this virus is pretty stable.

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

Last night I drank some wine and at about 1am I decided to go for a walk. It was glorious. Completely silent, not a car in sight. Walked to Wilshire Blvd, which normally would still have some traffic at that time but there was not a car on the road in either direction. I hadn't been out in a while other than to go to the store. It was very calming. Was taking really deep breaths, getting some fresh air into my lungs. I walk back to my street, still about 1/8 mile from home and on the sidewalk on the other side of the street I see someone walking towards me. As we get closer I see it's a guy,  about 6'5", floppy head of black hair. He's walking pretty fast. When we get to the point where we're going to pass each other I see out of the corner of my eye that he has stopped walking. I look over again as I'm walking and he's just standing there, staring at me. I look away for a few seconds and then I look back and he's still not moving, still staring. It's completely silent. No cars in the distance. No crickets. Nothing. After about 10 seconds I look back over my shoulder and see that he's crossing the street and walking towards me. My calm, happy buzz has turned to panic. Now I'm walking really fast and I hang a left onto a side street. I'm almost running but not quite. I remember I have my keys in my pocket and on the keychain there's a bottle opener that I can use as weapon if need be. I reach into my pocket and grab the keys, look over my shoulder and the guy has followed me down the side street. He's about 50 feet behind me. I start running. I'm a half a block away from Wilshire and i think maybe there will be cars there now. Maybe it'll make the guy stop following me. So i get to Wilshire (no cars), hang a right and look back and see the guy is stopped again. Just standing there, staring. I don't stop running until i get home. Have a keycard in my pocket that opens the garage to my building. I get into the garage, key into the door to the building, take the stairs up and into my apartment. Lock the door behind me. I'm sweating, heart beating about 200 bpm. Puked up the wine in my stomach. Kept looking out the peephole of my front door about every 30 seconds for about an hour. Passed out at some point. Sitting here now wondering if the guy was really following me? or if I was just being paranoid? Maybe he was walking toward his building? Maybe he stopped as to let me pass by before he turned back for home, to make it not seem like he was following me? Maybe he noticed that I kept looking back so he stopped walking again on that side street?

he was probably so surprised to see another person that he just wanted to say hi.

or maybe he wanted your spleen as a trophy.

 

[skol asylum]

Antibody tests should be available very soon according to Fauci

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way

The key is how many will be available and how fast can they be disseminated and processed.

 

[That one guy]

You're talking about hyperbolic chambers, correct? I'm referring to other, simpler therapies and drug cocktails that may turn out to work best that not everyone is trying as yet. It will be sorted in the end. Like others have said, doctors aren't going to ignore what works. It just sometimes takes time to fully embrace the treatment that turns out to be the best.

Can we all agree, without any finger pointing or specific examples, that this is a pretty funny autocorrect?  It made me exhale audibly

 

[skol asylum]

Staying in home would work great.  But it ain't happening for too much longer.  People won't have it.  The economy won't have it.

Hand-washing, masks, and working port/starboard (sorry, Navy term) shifts at the office will help.  Better treatment protocols will help.  The vulnerable populations will need to take extreme precautions.

Testing and tracking is the name of the game going forward, because we are not staying at home for that much longer.  Who's had it and can now move freely.  Who's got it, and the test results of all their contacts.

The shift idea sounds like a good one. Limit group sizes.

 

[NotSmart]

Last night I drank some wine and at about 1am I decided to go for a walk. It was glorious. Completely silent, not a car in sight. Walked to Wilshire Blvd, which normally would still have some traffic at that time but there was not a car on the road in either direction. I hadn't been out in a while other than to go to the store. It was very calming. Was taking really deep breaths, getting some fresh air into my lungs. I walk back to my street, still about 1/8 mile from home and on the sidewalk on the other side of the street I see someone walking towards me. As we get closer I see it's a guy,  about 6'5", floppy head of black hair. He's walking pretty fast. When we get to the point where we're going to pass each other I see out of the corner of my eye that he has stopped walking. I look over again as I'm walking and he's just standing there, staring at me. I look away for a few seconds and then I look back and he's still not moving, still staring. It's completely silent. No cars in the distance. No crickets. Nothing. After about 10 seconds I look back over my shoulder and see that he's crossing the street and walking towards me. My calm, happy buzz has turned to panic. Now I'm walking really fast and I hang a left onto a side street. I'm almost running but not quite. I remember I have my keys in my pocket and on the keychain there's a bottle opener that I can use as weapon if need be. I reach into my pocket and grab the keys, look over my shoulder and the guy has followed me down the side street. He's about 50 feet behind me. I start running. I'm a half a block away from Wilshire and i think maybe there will be cars there now. Maybe it'll make the guy stop following me. So i get to Wilshire (no cars), hang a right and look back and see the guy is stopped again. Just standing there, staring. I don't stop running until i get home. Have a keycard in my pocket that opens the garage to my building. I get into the garage, key into the door to the building, take the stairs up and into my apartment. Lock the door behind me. I'm sweating, heart beating about 200 bpm. Puked up the wine in my stomach. Kept looking out the peephole of my front door about every 30 seconds for about an hour. Passed out at some point. Sitting here now wondering if the guy was really following me? or if I was just being paranoid? Maybe he was walking toward his building? Maybe he stopped as to let me pass by before he turned back for home, to make it not seem like he was following me? Maybe he noticed that I kept looking back so he stopped walking again on that side street?

:subscribe:

 

[msommer]

I think that's because the flu has so many strains because it mutates quite a bit. Sounds like this virus is pretty stable.

IIRC the flu has two major strains, A and B. They change but the changes are trackable. Every year when the manufacturers/countries health organizations (like CDC) have to make/order the new vaccine they essentially have to guess whether A or B will be prevalent. Also IIRC A is usually the winner for reasons I don't know. I also don't know if every country chooses the same strain, which could be on the basis of input from WHO. Anyway, the choice between A and B is why sometimes the flu vaccine just doesn't work. Again, I could be remembering this wrongly

ETA: The current strain has jumped from bat, to pangolin (probably) to humans and to cats (and after the WHO let the dogs out there were reports they could actually be infected anyway). Not sure if the scientists are still talking about two strains. If they are, that is a lot of jumping and changing for a virus we think is stable. Maybe it is safer to say we don't know

 

[beer 30]

What if the date was June 1st? That seems possible, both in terms of people being able to do it, and the CDC having enough time to bring rapid testing and contact teams online. 

Man I thought here in SC that May 1 would be my target date to head back to the office. After the call today and what we are seeing as some downward trending in the numbers, no way we stay bottled up until May 1. Be surprised if they don't start asking us back to work next week. June 1st? No way the US will stay shut down till then. As someone else pointed out, especially if it's being pushed from the top down.

Not arguing with you but I just don't see us making it much past April unless there is an outbreak someplace. They will lock that are down (hopefully) and everyone else will go on about their life.

Just saw this in Ohio

https://twitter.com/ben_schwartz24/status/1248315706648571905?s=21

You're always going to have the dissenters. Everyone I've talked to in OH (most of my family still lives there) is in the opposite camp and very happy with how DeWine has handled this. I think history will prove out that it was the right approach as well.

 

[The Z Machine]

To those on the site like Commish and others with family impacted, I wish you all the best. Please take care.

For the Canadians on the board, I’d thought I’d throw a shout out to our Dr. Fauci, Dr. Theresa Tam ... she has been a rock star. Clear, concise, never hedging on the facts. She has been incredible.

Public Health professionals are often really great at discussing these things.  Not emotional about the data, but still have empathy for those suffering.  The motto of, "saving lives, millions at a time" is really true.   

 

[rockaction]

Can we all agree, without any finger pointing or specific examples, that this is a pretty funny autocorrect?  It made me exhale audibly

My friend said that once about Terrell Owens. Upon hearing that Owens credited God with healing a sprained ankle before the Super Bowl with the Patriots, my friend told me "Yeah. I heard this week that he spent time in a hyperbolic chamber!"

No lie. Guy had no idea what he'd just said. Classic. 

 

[nirad3]

IIRC the flu has two major strains, A and B. They change but the changes are trackable. Every year when the manufacturers/countries health organizations (like CDC) have to make/order the new vaccine they essentially have to guess whether A or B will be prevalent. Also IIRC A is usually the winner for reasons I don't know. I also don't know if every country chooses the same strain, which could be on the basis of input from WHO. Anyway, the choice between A and B is why sometimes the flu vaccine just doesn't work. Again, I could be remembering this wrongly

ETA: The current strain has jumped from bat, to pangolin (probably) to humans and to cats (and after the WHO let the dogs out there were reports they could actually be infected anyway). Not sure if the scientists are still talking about two strains. If they are, that is a lot of jumping and changing for a virus we think is stable. Maybe it is safer to say we don't know

Why don't they just combine the vaccines for A & B into one to cover all the bases?  I am completely dumb when it comes to all of this, so just wondering.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Man I thought here in SC that May 1 would be my target date to head back to the office. After the call today and what we are seeing as some downward trending in the numbers, no way we stay bottled up until May 1. Be surprised if they don't start asking us back to work next week. June 1st? No way the US will stay shut down till then. As someone else pointed out, especially if it's being pushed from the top down.

These decisions should be regional (state level) anyway. Not everywhere is NY. That said, if everyone can do this until 5/31 that would really be ideal to flatten as much as possible. SC isn't an island. That's 52 days from now. A lot depends on what testing and treatments are in place as well. 

 

[Kal El]

So I was pulling wire at a building under construction at a pretty large intersection here in FL, and it looked like a normal day of traffic, which could be a huge problem, especially if the safer at home is lifted too soon. I'm trying to keep my family healthy, and we're doing fairly well, but I think Florida is due for a major spike. I hope I'm wrong, though.

 

[Kal El]

My friend said that once about Terrell Owens. Upon hearing that Owens credited God with healing a sprained ankle before the Super Bowl with the Patriots, my friend told me "Yeah. I heard this week that he spent time in a hyperbolic chamber!"

No lie. Guy had no idea what he'd just said. Classic. 

Goku used it to try and beat Cell, so why shouldn't TO try it?

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

I recognize that this is walking the line of political talk, but Pence blocks Drs. Birx and Fauci from appearing on CNN because CNN won’t air the full daily press briefing.

Not cool. 

No it's not walking the line. It's clearly political and belongs in the Politics forum imo.

 

[shader]

Man I thought here in SC that May 1 would be my target date to head back to the office. After the call today and what we are seeing as some downward trending in the numbers, no way we stay bottled up until May 1. Be surprised if they don't start asking us back to work next week. June 1st? No way the US will stay shut down till then. As someone else pointed out, especially if it's being pushed from the top down.

Not arguing with you but I just don't see us making it much past April unless there is an outbreak someplace. They will lock that are down (hopefully) and everyone else will go on about their life.

You're always going to have the dissenters. Everyone I've talked to in OH (most of my family still lives there) is in the opposite camp and very happy with how DeWine has handled this. I think history will prove out that it was the right approach as well.

May 1 seems extremely optimistic.  There are 400k active cases right now.  The way the numbers are going now, there's every indication that there will be at least 200-300k active cases on May 1st.   Time goes both slow and fast in this thing!  Remember Trump saying he wants to open things by Easter.  Easter is a couple days away and there isn't a chance anything should be open then.

That being said, I think it all depends on where people live.  But if we head back to work at a time when there are more active cases than when we went into quarantine, we're kind of defeating the purpose, aren't we?  

 

[ffjunk]

I get that people are saying no way they can stay inside for much longer. This is why we will see a spike in the numbers as predicted. Numbers will level and perhaps drop, giving a false sense of security. If you have to go out, when you come back please stay away from anyone who has a pre-existing condition or compromised immune system. If you don't want to care about your health, the least you can do is care about theirs.

 

[skol asylum]

he was probably so surprised to see another person that he just wanted to say hi.

or maybe he wanted your spleen as a trophy.

Probably wanted to trade his body for a couple hours for a roll of TP.

 

[skol asylum]

IIRC the flu has two major strains, A and B. They change but the changes are trackable. Every year when the manufacturers/countries health organizations (like CDC) have to make/order the new vaccine they essentially have to guess whether A or B will be prevalent. Also IIRC A is usually the winner for reasons I don't know. I also don't know if every country chooses the same strain, which could be on the basis of input from WHO. Anyway, the choice between A and B is why sometimes the flu vaccine just doesn't work. Again, I could be remembering this wrongly

ETA: The current strain has jumped from bat, to pangolin (probably) to humans and to cats (and after the WHO let the dogs out there were reports they could actually be infected anyway). Not sure if the scientists are still talking about two strains. If they are, that is a lot of jumping and changing for a virus we think is stable. Maybe it is safer to say we don't know

I wonder if it's only an A vs B proposition why not vaccinate for both? Seems like that would save alot of lives.

 

[nirad3]

Why don't they just combine the vaccines for A & B into one to cover all the bases?  I am completely dumb when it comes to all of this, so just wondering.

I wonder if it's only an A vs B proposition why not vaccinate for both? Seems like that would save alot of lives.

Man that's a great idea.  

 

[Cowboysfan8]

The shift idea sounds like a good one. Limit group sizes.

Sounds good to the people that get to work first shift...

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I wonder if it's only an A vs B proposition why not vaccinate for both? Seems like that would save alot of lives.

There are more than 2 flu strains. Also antibodies lose their strength after some time, hence the need for an annual re-up on the flu shot. 

This link has good explanations, better than I can do: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/keyfacts.htm

Flu vaccines cause antibodies to develop in the body about two weeks after vaccination. These antibodies provide protection against infection with the viruses that are used to make the vaccine.

The seasonal flu vaccine protects against the influenza viruses that research indicates will be most common during the upcoming season. Most flu vaccines in the United States protect against four different flu viruses (“quadrivalent”); an influenza A (H1N1) virus, an influenza A (H3N2) virus, and two influenza B viruses. There are also some flu vaccines that protect against three different flu viruses (“trivalent”); an influenza A (H1N1) virus, an influenza A (H3N2) virus, and one influenza B virus. Two of the trivalent vaccines are designed specifically for people 65 and older to create a stronger immune response.

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.A flu vaccine is needed every season for two reasons. First, a person’s immune protection from vaccination declines over time, so an annual vaccine is needed for optimal protection. Second, because flu viruses are constantly changing, flu vaccines may be updated from one season to the next to protect against the viruses that research suggests may be most common during the upcoming flu season.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Man that's a great idea.  

Pretty sure it's a cost/manufacturing issue.

They have to guess (probably using early data) each year which vaccine combo to make.  The scale of a vaccine for 327MM people is a big thing.

 

[need2know]

Got the flu shot one time in my life.  Got the flu that season.   

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Got the flu shot one time in my life.  Got the flu that season.   

it was either bad timing (the antibodies hadn't built up yet, which according to that link a couple posts up, takes a couple of weeks), or bad luck (your shot didn't have coverage for the strain that you ended up getting)

 

[The Tick]

Not vaccination (probably a few years away), but improved treatment. Also getting cases low enough to where contact tracing for most of them becomes feasible. And lastly, to keep manageable the numbers needing care in any one healthcare system.

I guess I just don't understand the idea of contact tracing becoming feasible for this disease.  I understand what contract tracing is, but with a disease that can  be contagious up to 14 days before showing symptoms which would likely be the point where a "test" would happen to initiate a contact trace, what do you do?  So sir what have you been up to the last two weeks?  Well I took the NY subway to work every day....  GREAT NOW WE ARE ALL SCREWED AGAIN!  The timeline is so great what can you do about it?  You can isolate and test the closest of contacts, but outside of that, how far can you realistically go?

 

[shader]

I guess I just don't understand the idea of contact tracing becoming feasible for this disease.  I understand what contract tracing is, but with a disease that can  be contagious up to 14 days before showing symptoms which would likely be the point where a "test" would happen to initiate a contact trace, what do you do?  So sir what have you been up to the last two weeks?  Well I took the NY subway to work every day....  GREAT NOW WE ARE ALL SCREWED AGAIN!  The timeline is so great what can you do about it?  You can isolate and test the closest of contacts, but outside of that, how far can you realistically go?

It’s admittedly not perfect, but having it is far better than not having it. 

 

[nirad3]

Got the flu shot one time in my life.  Got the flu that season.   

I think I've only got it once, too.  When my kids were real little and the wife and I didn't want to get them sick.  Honestly, I don't think I've EVER had the flu.  Big-time knock on wood.