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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (17 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
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proteus126
Footballguy
More like working alternate days - one at home and then one at the orifice. If you can productively work from home.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Apologies if posted here previously, but I found this interesting coming from the guy who was the subject of the movie "The Big Short". He predicted the 2008 housing market crash/financial crisis. Bloomberg piece with his thoughts on how we got here, what should be doing, and predictions for how we'll come out of this...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm
I think there's something in there for everyone to agree and disagree with so I won't comment on what I think is right or wrong. I do think that, like it or not, his suggestion for how we should be handling this in terms of shutdown, is what we'll see soon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm
I think there's something in there for everyone to agree and disagree with so I won't comment on what I think is right or wrong. I do think that, like it or not, his suggestion for how we should be handling this in terms of shutdown, is what we'll see soon.
beer 30
Footballguy
The more I see, the more I think this will be the case. The county I live in enacted a state of emergency due to COVID which basically gives them additional power to keep people at home. We have a about 50 cases here in the county right now (pop of 266,439).
Couple of indicators that I've seen this week, Tuesday & Wednesday were insane trying to find air scrubbers, today? Nada. I heard from two different areas of the country that the Army Corp went full stop on two large temp holding areas until further notice. Seems like there are things pointing toward a downturn in response areas which is what we are primarily supplying along with hospitals. Those deals are also being scaled back except in some really hard hit areas.
So yea, I think May 1 is optimistic but for this area, maybe its right? I know short of a severe outbreak there is no way we would go to June 1. Take my business as an example (Sunbelt Rentals), we employ 15,000 people across Canada and the US, a good portion of our business is customer interaction. To date, we've had less than 15 people test positive for the virus and two have already returned to work. If we continue to hear the threat is minimal if you do X, which we have done a very good job with, I assume the rest of the country will as well and begin to feel like the worst is behind us, as long as we continue to do the things that have allowed us to get past this.
If we lose the hand washing and the social distancing and all the other habits we've developed over the last month or two then yes, we're going to be right back into a mess again.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Yep, absent a ginormous number of minimally symptomatic/asymptomatic cases (or a vaccine), we won’t achieve herd immunity for a long, long time. The goal is reducing Ro with behavioral interventions to less than 1, which will cause the virus to fizzle out naturally. In the meantime, we need widespread access to testing for acute and resolved infection, to facilitate rapid diagnosis and contact tracing as cases crop up once society is restarted.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
I agree to a certain extent.
However, the idea (more like "the hope") is that most people will be using good social distancing practices, so we'll greatly reduce the chances of a "subway outbreak" happening again. And when it does happen, we'll be able to respond faster because we've got rapid testing up-and-running.
But, yeah, one infected super-spreader on the subway could ruin everything that we've worked for.
top dog
Footballguy
Cleveland Area guy here. I'm not surprised by this. There is still a very LOUD social media circle of folks out there who think this is BS and DeWine is an idiot. That being said, most people here are happy with the course Ohio has taken. Even my wife's parents who were screaming how big of an idiot DeWine was until things started getting real and in your face. Now they have backed off the "it's just a flu" and are taking it very seriously. Don't hear them complain anymore.
The majority of folks here support him, but the ones who dissent usually are the loudest.
skol asylum
Footballguy
waiver wire
Footballguy
Today Trudeau was pretty blunt and to the point
Eventually we (Canada) and every country is going to have to come up with a plan
to me that accessible daily test and the ability to track and trace the spread is our best hope and plan until a vaccine
No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says
Canadians won’t be able to return to life as they knew it before the novel coronavirus pandemic until a vaccine is available, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday.
“Normality as it was before will not come back full-on until we get a vaccine for this… That will be a very long way off,” the prime minister said during his daily news conference on Canada’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
“We will have to remain vigilant for at least a year,” he added in French.
Trudeau’s comments came just after the release of modelling data that federal health officials have been using to inform Canada’s response to the pandemic.
The models suggested the first wave of the virus could end roughly sometime in the summer, but that further “wavelets” are possible in the following months.
Epidemic controls and surveillance will have to continue over that time so “the chains” of the virus don’t “reignite,” said Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer.
Canada is developing “tools and habits” now that will allow the country to be “much more resilient and resistant to further outbreaks and spreads,” Trudeau later told reporters.
Even then, “there will be things we just aren’t able to do” for a year to 18 months, he added in French.
The prime minister urged Canadians once again to stay at home and limit their trips outside so the country can get through the first wave of the virus “as quickly as possible.”
While it’s unclear what extended epidemic controls would look like in Canada at this point, analysis by Harvard researchers, released March 27 ahead of peer review, suggested that multiple “intermittent” periods of physical distancing might be a more effective strategy for saving lives than continuing with “strict” distancing measures.
Health officials still aren’t sure where Canada is on the epidemic curve and won’t know when the virus has peaked until after that’s happened, Tam said.
Eventually we (Canada) and every country is going to have to come up with a plan
to me that accessible daily test and the ability to track and trace the spread is our best hope and plan until a vaccine
No return to ‘normality’ until coronavirus vaccine is available, Trudeau says
Canadians won’t be able to return to life as they knew it before the novel coronavirus pandemic until a vaccine is available, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday.
“Normality as it was before will not come back full-on until we get a vaccine for this… That will be a very long way off,” the prime minister said during his daily news conference on Canada’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
“We will have to remain vigilant for at least a year,” he added in French.
Trudeau’s comments came just after the release of modelling data that federal health officials have been using to inform Canada’s response to the pandemic.
The models suggested the first wave of the virus could end roughly sometime in the summer, but that further “wavelets” are possible in the following months.
Epidemic controls and surveillance will have to continue over that time so “the chains” of the virus don’t “reignite,” said Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer.
Canada is developing “tools and habits” now that will allow the country to be “much more resilient and resistant to further outbreaks and spreads,” Trudeau later told reporters.
Even then, “there will be things we just aren’t able to do” for a year to 18 months, he added in French.
The prime minister urged Canadians once again to stay at home and limit their trips outside so the country can get through the first wave of the virus “as quickly as possible.”
While it’s unclear what extended epidemic controls would look like in Canada at this point, analysis by Harvard researchers, released March 27 ahead of peer review, suggested that multiple “intermittent” periods of physical distancing might be a more effective strategy for saving lives than continuing with “strict” distancing measures.
Health officials still aren’t sure where Canada is on the epidemic curve and won’t know when the virus has peaked until after that’s happened, Tam said.
need2know
Footballguy
I've had it like twice. Really mild. If they can come up with a vaccine that covers this covid19 I would try it again. Guess ive always felt it didn't do much for me.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
More of the same, and nothing encouraging to see, on covid worldometers. Over 80,000 new cases; over 7,000 deaths. After a lull a couple days ago, this is looking like a new threshold. Still high percentages (~ 15%) in Russia; Peru; India (lower base, but that's worrisome). Also high percentages, but on much lower numbers, in Bangladesh, Niger, Ghana.
eta: over 85,000
eta: over 85,000
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shader
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
Don’t do this guys. If you order delivery, tip and tip well, (if you can afford it)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/tech/instacart-shoppers-tip-baiting/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/tech/instacart-shoppers-tip-baiting/index.html
top dog
Footballguy
One of our facilities had to shut down last week due to a COVID breakout. I've been so frustrated with our senior management in handling this in our company. We are a small company. Couple hundred employees across a few facilities. I've been working from home for a while as I basically forced the situation. Getting people to work remotely was not a priority for management due to not believing the severity of it. One of our facilities was full staff UNTIL THIS WEEK when they sent four... FOUR FREAKING PEOPLE to work remotely.
A friend of mine at one of the facilities came down with symptoms in late march. Not enough to point to COVID. His wife got sick on 4/3. She was tested on 4/4. On 4/5 she was taken back to the hospital and put in ICU. On 4/6 she was doing better and upgraded out of ICU. Maybe come home in a couple days. Today the husband was finally cleared to take a test. His o2 levels were so low they admitted him. He got word at 4pm that they put his wife on a ventilator.
I'm so angry right now I can't even think straight!
A friend of mine at one of the facilities came down with symptoms in late march. Not enough to point to COVID. His wife got sick on 4/3. She was tested on 4/4. On 4/5 she was taken back to the hospital and put in ICU. On 4/6 she was doing better and upgraded out of ICU. Maybe come home in a couple days. Today the husband was finally cleared to take a test. His o2 levels were so low they admitted him. He got word at 4pm that they put his wife on a ventilator.
I'm so angry right now I can't even think straight!
Redwes25
Footballguy
Though still below the highs of a few days ago. This is very good news. Florida has so many high risk people I would hate it to get out of control there.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
ProstheticRGK
Footballguy
Could've also been just the symptoms of your body reacting to the vaccine. I get what feels like a low-grade flu almost every time I get the vaccine (and I have to get it for work) but, it's pretty mild and doesn't last more than a couple days. The only thing that makes sense, scientifically, is my body's immune system is just ramping up to develop antibodies to the dead virus in the vaccine. The body's response is what causes the symptoms.
Real flu is a complete kick in the pants, and as you get older, a real danger.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Lawsuits will flow from this unfortunately.One of our facilities had to shut down last week due to a COVID breakout. I've been so frustrated with our senior management in handling this in our company. We are a small company. Couple hundred employees across a few facilities. I've been working from home for a while as I basically forced the situation. Getting people to work remotely was not a priority for management due to not believing the severity of it. One of our facilities was full staff UNTIL THIS WEEK when they sent four... FOUR FREAKING PEOPLE to work remotely.
A friend of mine at one of the facilities came down with symptoms in late march. Not enough to point to COVID. His wife got sick on 4/3. She was tested on 4/4. On 4/5 she was taken back to the hospital and put in ICU. On 4/6 she was doing better and upgraded out of ICU. Maybe come home in a couple days. Today the husband was finally cleared to take a test. His o2 levels were so low they admitted him. He got word at 4pm that they put his wife on a ventilator.
I'm so angry right now I can't even think straight!
What a stupid decision. I’m so sorry.
Passed away today. This woman has been in the hospital who knows how many times since I've met her. Took a freaking global pandemic to finish her off. She was tough.
top dog
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
@Terminalxylem not sure if they would ship to you, but I saw this pop up today.
Seems they are still available and says specifically for medical workers or first responders. They are p95 which as we discussed are better than n95
Seems they are still available and says specifically for medical workers or first responders. They are p95 which as we discussed are better than n95
top dog
Footballguy
I thought, nah... Can't believe that rag.. And they are definitely playing up that whole "kill with one sting" bs.. But then I found this...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/23/us/asian-giant-hornet-washington-state-scn-trnd/index.html
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
We've already had those here. The like the sugar in some trees we have in the back yard -- when the sun hits them in the fall those bees are all over the place.
The General
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
There's video of a few of them destroying an entire hive of thousands of honey bees somewhere on the 'net.I thought, nah... Can't believe that rag.. And they are definitely playing up that whole "kill with one sting" bs.. But then I found this...
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/23/us/asian-giant-hornet-washington-state-scn-trnd/index.html
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
joffer
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
Just trying to lighten the mood. I don’t think we need to worry about the bees.
mr roboto
Footballguy
Re:contact tracing - they are saying it could take 300,000 workers to accomplish this. Are these highly skilled jobs? We will have millions of unemployed when we ‘open up’ (not all the unemployed people will be rehired).
If it’s not a highly skilled job shouldn’t it be easy to mount this type of effort?
If it’s not a highly skilled job shouldn’t it be easy to mount this type of effort?
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
I can't imagine it's highly skilled. Seems to me it's as easy as asking a confirmed case to provide info for ever5they came in close contact with over the past few days. The calling all those people and asking them to self-quarantine. I'm sure there is a bit more it than that, but those are the basics.
Capella
Footballguy
TheMagus
Footballguy
Can someone help me out with this? If people don't get this from contaminated surfaces, then what is the washing your hands as a way to combat this all about? I really am completely confused by the recommendations and official messages about how this virus spreads.
need2know
Footballguy
I never get the flu shot. Had it once 12 years ago and got the flu shot that year. I think I have had the flu 2 times in 39 years
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Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
shader
Footballguy
Non-China Reported Cases
2/7 - 277 reported cases
2/12 - 490 reported cases
2/17 - 893 reported cases - 5 dead
2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead
2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead
2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead
3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead
3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead
3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead
3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead
3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead
3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead
4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA 244,320 cases - 5,897 dead
4/6 - 1,264,826 reported cases - 71,366 dead - USA 367,004 cases - 10,871 dead
4/7 - 1,349,179 reported cases - 78,703 dead - USA 400,335 cases - 12,841 dead
4/8 - 1,435,929 reported cases - 85,121 dead - USA 434,698 cases - 14,787 dead
4/9 - 1,521,741 reported cases - 92,380 dead - USA 468,566 cases - 16,691 dead - Active USA cases 425,947
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
Gonna track active cases for awhile. Not sure if all states keep this updated, I have my doubts that they do, but realistically we need this number to go WAY down before anything is opened up.
2/7 - 277 reported cases
2/12 - 490 reported cases
2/17 - 893 reported cases - 5 dead
2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead
2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead
2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead
3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead
3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead
3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead
3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead
3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead
3/27 - 514,956 reported cases - 24,048 dead - USA 104,126 cases - 1,695 dead
4/2 - 932,707 reported cases - 49,664 dead - USA 244,320 cases - 5,897 dead
4/6 - 1,264,826 reported cases - 71,366 dead - USA 367,004 cases - 10,871 dead
4/7 - 1,349,179 reported cases - 78,703 dead - USA 400,335 cases - 12,841 dead
4/8 - 1,435,929 reported cases - 85,121 dead - USA 434,698 cases - 14,787 dead
4/9 - 1,521,741 reported cases - 92,380 dead - USA 468,566 cases - 16,691 dead - Active USA cases 425,947
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0
Gonna track active cases for awhile. Not sure if all states keep this updated, I have my doubts that they do, but realistically we need this number to go WAY down before anything is opened up.
JaxBill
Footballguy
So it turns out that when federal testing money runs out, Florida may increase testing according to Gov. DeSantis.
He also wants to increase rapid tests avsilable to hospitals so they can identify cases quicker.
We shall see.
He also wants to increase rapid tests avsilable to hospitals so they can identify cases quicker.
We shall see.
Sand
Footballguy
If reinfections are a thing then herd immunity is a fantasy world. Still questions out there about whether tests are giving Type I and Type II errors that would account for this, though.
That's a shame. Pretty place, nice people.
My next door neighbor (85ish) and not in great health just died today. With all this corona virus craziness he fell getting out of bed of all things - turned out to be fatal. Incredibly sad.
-----
In other news Chicago had to put a curfew on liquor stores. Least surprising thing ever. The thought that liquor stores are "essential businesses" is absolutely insane. They should be the first stores shut down. A drug that lowers mental capability and inhibitions should be the first thing that gets restricted - we have enough issues with people acting poorly while sober.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Having now finished four weeks of WFH and minimal trips out, I feel pretty confident that I could continue this routine more or less indefinitely.
The main problem that I would encounter is that I am a runner. Sitting here in early April in the upper Midwest, that's great -- we're heading into spring and I expect that I'll be able to run pretty much any day that I feel like it for the next bunch of months. But when we get into October/November, we will start getting weather that would normally push me indoors. Our winter is really like 5-6 months, and while I have a ton of winter gear for outdoor running, that's just not an option for when the roads are iced over or loaded with snow or when the windchill is -10 or lower. The lack of a gym will be a problem for me, but if I knew we were doing this long term, I could just shell out for a treadmill.
Otherwise, this is all basically fine for me.
The main problem that I would encounter is that I am a runner. Sitting here in early April in the upper Midwest, that's great -- we're heading into spring and I expect that I'll be able to run pretty much any day that I feel like it for the next bunch of months. But when we get into October/November, we will start getting weather that would normally push me indoors. Our winter is really like 5-6 months, and while I have a ton of winter gear for outdoor running, that's just not an option for when the roads are iced over or loaded with snow or when the windchill is -10 or lower. The lack of a gym will be a problem for me, but if I knew we were doing this long term, I could just shell out for a treadmill.
Otherwise, this is all basically fine for me.
JAA
Footballguy
Good points, thank you. It will be interesting to see how the age demographic plays through all regions.
Sand
Footballguy
adonis
Footballguy
[scooter]
Footballguy
1. you're within ~6 feet of an infected person who coughs/sneezes and projects a droplet onto your hand, and then you touch your face, and the droplet gets into your nose or other orifice.
2. you shake hands with an infected person who just touched their mouth/nose, and they get a droplet on your hand, and then you touch your face.
3. an infected person projects a droplet onto a surface and you then touch that surface and then touch your face.
I think the reason why we can't confirm if #3 has happened is because it's difficult to simultaneously rule out #1 and #2.
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Sand
Footballguy
There has been a lot of attention to the higher mortality rate among African Americans here. I wonder whether there is a true higher susceptibility to Covid or if a higher incidence of pre-existing conditions and obesity explains it. We already know that men are much more susceptible to this thing.
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