As a country, the US is just nowhere near it. It's another danger of being told that we are "over the peak". No, we aren't. Until the active cases in a country start going down considerably, you're not over a peak. As long as active cases continue to go up, you're not over the peak. It's when they start going down that you can safely assume the (first) peak is in the past.
Things we know social distancing can do:
1. Halt exponential growth in cases, ICU, deaths
2. Halt net daily growth numbers for hospitalizations and ICU. This is net only and having lower numbers of people in the ICU is good in a sense and bad in another. It's great for the staff in terms of what they can handle, but one of the ways they are freeing up space is that a lot of people are dying.
Things we don't know if social distancing can achieve with THIS virus:
1. Reverse active cases and drive the number down to zero. We've basically seen this happen in China with a unbelievably strict quarantine. We saw it happen in South Korea with contact tracing, rapid testing AND the fact that they only had 10k cases.