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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

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Grace Under Pressure said:
Is it set-up to model something like this (number of days):

2

3

7

12

16

38

46

58

76

157

271

285

385

Out to 56 days with a peak at day 28, a leveling off through day 35 and then a decrease from days 35-56 similar to the increase in days 1-13? If it's not set up like that then just ignore this.

Those numbers are NYC deaths. 
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no - all I'm doing is deaths in day N+1 = deaths in day N * 1.4, and extrapolating that down.  Exponential growth.  simple math.  It can't account for leveling off, becase that requires something different happening - that something different might be the effect of quarantining, herd immunity, running out of people to get sick, etc.  I don't know how to model the peak.  I'm sure it can be done, I haven't looked that deeply into it.

I also roughly assume that coming down the opposite side of the peak is a mirror of going up.  i know that's not really how it works but it makes the math really easy.  All do is double the dumber you are at.  So, if you assume we are at the peak today, I would estimate the total number ot be 2x the deaths we have today.  rough calculation for sure, but easy math.  If you wanted to assume a level period before a ramp down, you just take the peak value, multiply that by how many days you are level, and add that to your total.  make sense?

 
Anyone in the Bay Area may want to tune into ABC 7 news this afternoon (5 & 6pm).  They interviewed our CEO this am and will be airing a story on our COVID-19 treatment protocol.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Yeah, I don't think its political of me to state that American Exceptionalism is gonna be a problem in curbing this thing's impact. Already is. 

People simultaneously hero-worshipping the law while taking idiotic pride in doing whatever they personally want is a problem even outside a pandemic situation.
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Bingo.

Jingoism is blinding.

 
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shader said:
A wake-up call?  What's wrong with his post? That's the track we are on. 
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A wake up call for who? People in this thread have been baking mail, lysoling groceries, playing hands free tennis, avoiding rimming, and social distancing (except evil me for launching bagelgate). Maybe he should post his greatest hopes and desires for world elimination on facebook. 

 
tamales said:
A wake up call for who? People in this thread have been baking mail, lysoling groceries, playing hands free tennis, avoiding rimming, and social distancing (except evil me for launching bagelgate). Maybe he should post his greatest hopes and desires for world elimination on facebook. 
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"Can we please stop with the "people are rooting for this" posts?   Nobody in here is hoping for people to die. "- KP

 
rcam said:
No, unfortunately. Until things are under control there isn't really a middle ground and by under control you need the health care system stable, ubiquitous and easy testing, and people willing to do their part. I don't think we are close to any of that right now. There are "essential" businesses which need to keep going of course. If exposure translates to immunity then I could see a niche industry of recoved COVID19 people performing jobs that expose them quite a bit.
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Well, I wasn't necessarily saying we start today.  I don't even think Easter is realistic.  My thoughts are more in response to those who have said that this may go on for months.  Which it will, in all likelihood, to some extent.  We can't go into hiding and shut things down for months.  But, we can't go back to life as we knew it, with the flip of a switch, either.  It can't be black or white... has to be a middle ground.  When that starts, I think it's too early to say.  But, as things progress, people are going to want to go back to work, even if it means finding creative ways to do so safely. 

 
GroveDiesel said:
I think we’ll abide as long as there is indication that meeting in person still risks significant health impacts, whatever that looks like.

We were quick to put together services that we can stream on Sunday mornings and leave up for folks to watch. We’ve also rolled out video conferencing for all of our small groups that has been extremely successful. In fact, we’ve had more people view our services and participate in small groups than we did before all this happened. My small group has a large text thread that we touch base regularly in. No, it’s not the same as meeting in person, but it absolutely IS meeting together. We’re lucky to live in a time where we can still “meet” together, support each other, and live in community together through technology.

I recognize that not all churches have equipped themselves to do this very well, but IMO, that’s a poor excuse for putting people’s health at risk. Figure it out. Practically everyone has Facebook. It’s not hard to record and put a service up there. My parents are in their 60s and not technologically illiterate but not super on top of things either and they have had no problems figuring out FaceTime and Zoom. That goes double for these megachurches that are still meeting in person. It’s a simple reality of our time that people are already searching for community online more and more (hello FBG). Churches that have chosen to ignore that and who are refusing to use those resources and capabilities now have already made their choice to ignore the world outside of their doors IMO. Maybe that’s harsh, but I think it’s true of way too many American churches in general.
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I don't necessarily disagree with any of that.  We are streaming services, using Zoom, etc as well.  And we've had great response like you have.  Maybe it's cause I'm more gregarious, but online just isn't the same.  I get that you say we're still "meeting" and in some respects we are.  But it's not the same.   We shall see.  Thanks for your thoughts.

 
Tony Jabroni said:
Alright, haven't posted in this thread yet. This sucks ###. I missed my sons birthday cause we are all on lockdown. My girlfriend, who has mental health issues, (please don't judge) can't even leave her apartment just for her "Iced coffee" or get groceries. I feel like death. It has been movies and chicken soup for days for me. I haven't been tested yet, I am considering it. I don't know if I have the flu or whateva. Either way, this sucks. I am bored off my ###. I have been staying home. If anyone has any good porn links, that would be awesome.*

*I am kidding, and I have my own library.

This still sucks.
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That blows, sorry you're going thru what a lot of others just have not yet experienced with this virus. I hope we don't catch it, so far it's just allergies here. 

Mrs had to buy a new 10 foot paddle board without discussing it and we now have a wonderful new 10 foot coffee table in the living room where I knew it would end up while this virus continues to spread.

Get tested so you get some peace of mind and know what you are up against, always a good joker and poster in here, get well.  

 
Golden Gopher said:
Well, I wasn't necessarily saying we start today.  I don't even think Easter is realistic.  My thoughts are more in response to those who have said that this may go on for months.  Which it will, in all likelihood, to some extent.  We can't go into hiding and shut things down for months.  But, we can't go back to life as we knew it, with the flip of a switch, either.  It can't be black or white... has to be a middle ground.  When that starts, I think it's too early to say.  But, as things progress, people are going to want to go back to work, even if it means finding creative ways to do so safely. 
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I think there is going to be quite a few working from home for the foreseeable future. A lot of people are going to be SOL for a while too - but that is better than being dead. Really, once under control, you would want certain cities to be test cases. We will get to see what happens with China and S. Korea before we are anywhere close to doing the same. If we learn from them I am sure we will get back to some semblance of normalcy.

 
moleculo said:
no - all I'm doing is deaths in day N+1 = deaths in day N * 1.4, and extrapolating that down.  Exponential growth.  simple math.  It can't account for leveling off, becase that requires something different happening - that something different might be the effect of quarantining, herd immunity, running out of people to get sick, etc.  I don't know how to model the peak.  I'm sure it can be done, I haven't looked that deeply into it.

I also roughly assume that coming down the opposite side of the peak is a mirror of going up.  i know that's not really how it works but it makes the math really easy.  All do is double the dumber you are at.  So, if you assume we are at the peak today, I would estimate the total number ot be 2x the deaths we have today.  rough calculation for sure, but easy math.  If you wanted to assume a level period before a ramp down, you just take the peak value, multiply that by how many days you are level, and add that to your total.  make sense?
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Yup, makes total sense.

NYC is looking at 72,000 deaths.

Please feel free to check my math.

 
Pipes said:
Yes.  I'd like to see useful information not doomsday scenarios.  Plenty of posts are useful but it's tough weeding through the crap.
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I haven't seen any doomsday scenarios in here.  Not one.  Literally no one in this thread is discussing the worst case scenarios, even though some healthcare officials and scientists/epidemiologists publicly believe they might happen. 

If you want a doomsday scenario, take @Politician Spock 's 1,000 an hour (very realistic) and multiply it by 10.  And that's not even close to a worst-case scenario. 

Go listen to March 23's NYT podcast.  It's far more "doomsday" than anything I've read in here.  And it's the New York Times.

 
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shader said:
I haven't seen any doomsday scenarios in here.  Not one.  Literally no one in this thread is discussing the worst case scenarios, even though some healthcare officials and scientists/epidemiologists publicly believe they will happen. 

If you want a doomsday scenario, take @Politician Spock 's 1,000 an hour (very realistic) and multiply it by 10.  And that's not even close to a worst-case scenario. 
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Based on the number of likes on my post in such a short time many of us feel different. It depends on your perspective I guess.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Italy still has between 6-13 days to go before they get to days 21-28 on their 56 day bell curve. The curve begins after a significant numbers of cases is reported and after a complete shutdown is ordered to implement extreme social distancing mitigation. This happened in Italy on March 11, or 15 days ago. While today's numbers are not good, they do report more recoveries than deaths, and the % increase in deaths is 9%, the first time it has lowered to double digits (unfortunately that's partially a function of the denominator increasing). It is also the 5th day in a row with new daily cases below the 6,557 mark reached on March 21, which may turn out to be the peak number (fingers crossed).

Hopefully they remain diligent with their social distancing measures and we get to the downside of the curve closer to 6 days from now than 13.

Please realize this talk of Easter in this country is absolutely ridiculous. You think they're talking like that in Italy?

Wondering how many days we are into the 56 day bell curve in the U.S.? That would be 4. Depending on your region you may not even have started yet.
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How do you know the curve is 56 days long?

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
There are people who think "the economy" (which is, if we're being honest on a meta level, mostly made up bull#### that benefits those fortunate enough--including many of us here, yes) is more important on any level than human lives that can be saved. And that thought process is just totally normal because of how skewed our humanity and priorities have become. As if the idea of a society is worth more than the people who actually make up that society. What is the ####### point of all this (I'm talking human civilization) if we're willing to sacrifice lives so that the big numbers some worship can get bigger, to put it simply.

I get that we do this all the time without fully realizing it until it's already a huge problem (see: climate change), and that we've slowly fallen into this mindset because there aren't always lives so obviously in the crosshairs. But this situation feels like much more of a direct, obvious choice between lives and this amorphous idea of big money and "the economy" we've built our society around--a system that doesn't even benefit most people even when things are going swimmingly. If anything could dumb that idea down into the easiest to process argument, it's a crisis like this, you'd think. It's an explicit choice between profits and lives splayed out as directly and raw as you can imagine--usually this stuff is pretty hard to see through the desensitized POV we all have, living how we do. 

This conversation is too big for this thread obviously, but I hope this whole ordeal and the things we show as a society we're able to do to combat it wakes some people up. This should be a turning point, but for some people they'll continue to prefer a perceived sense of normalcy that can turn on them at any moment as easily as it's turning on others now.
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Amen brother @ConnSKINS26 - preach on!

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Yup, makes total sense.

NYC is looking at 72,000 deaths.

Please feel free to check my math.
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I ran your numbers from a different perspective and they line up well.  Cuomo and the mayor of NY said they think 50% of people will get it.  In NYC that means 4 million people.  Plug in a death rate of 1-3 percent and that gives you 40k-120k.  

 
shader said:
:lmao:
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Just trying to show that many agree with me.  I apologize for showing some optimism is such trying times.  You're right.  Enjoy your discussion on how many people are going to die. Time to check out of this ridiculous thread.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
Italy still has between 6-13 days to go before they get to days 21-28 on their 56 day bell curve. The curve begins after a significant numbers of cases is reported and after a complete shutdown is ordered to implement extreme social distancing mitigation. This happened in Italy on March 11, or 15 days ago. While today's numbers are not good, they do report more recoveries than deaths, and the % increase in deaths is 9%, the first time it has lowered to double digits (unfortunately that's partially a function of the denominator increasing). It is also the 5th day in a row with new daily cases below the 6,557 mark reached on March 21, which may turn out to be the peak number (fingers crossed).

Hopefully they remain diligent with their social distancing measures and we get to the downside of the curve closer to 6 days from now than 13.

Please realize this talk of Easter in this country is absolutely ridiculous. You think they're talking like that in Italy?

Wondering how many days we are into the 56 day bell curve in the U.S.? That would be 4. Depending on your region you may not even have started yet.
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Umbria has been increasing by about 150-200 positives daily.  Now at 802.  2,814 are under observation.  Perugia (the Province and City are hardest hit). 

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
It's an estimate but based on China & South Korea's duration of their bell curve. Very few countries have been through the full curve yet, but that's the best I could gather. Every region will have it's own curve duration of course.
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I think the different methodologies, both in identifying positive cases and in containment make it difficult to draw any kind of conclusion when comparing the US to anyone else.

 
I get that this is stressful and scary. 

I dont get why posting stats and projection models and having a discussion about where we could be heading is just written off as doomsday scenarios.  

I mean I really hope those are wrong, but we cant ignore what other countries are going through and trying to be prepared for similar.  

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
There are people who think "the economy" (which is, if we're being honest on a meta level, mostly made up bull#### that benefits those fortunate enough--including many of us here, yes) is more important on any level than human lives that can be saved. And that thought process is just totally normal because of how skewed our humanity and priorities have become. As if the idea of a society is worth more than the people who actually make up that society. What is the ####### point of all this (I'm talking human civilization) if we're willing to sacrifice lives so that the big numbers some worship can get bigger, to put it simply.

I get that we do this all the time without fully realizing it until it's already a huge problem (see: climate change), and that we've slowly fallen into this mindset because there aren't always lives so obviously in the crosshairs. But this situation feels like much more of a direct, obvious choice between lives and this amorphous idea of big money and "the economy" we've built our society around--a system that doesn't even benefit most people even when things are going swimmingly. If anything could dumb that idea down into the easiest to process argument, it's a crisis like this, you'd think. It's an explicit choice between profits and lives splayed out as directly and raw as you can imagine--usually this stuff is pretty hard to see through the desensitized POV we all have, living how we do. 

This conversation is too big for this thread obviously, but I hope this whole ordeal and the things we show as a society we're able to do to combat it wakes some people up. This should be a turning point, but for some people they'll continue to prefer a perceived sense of normalcy that can turn on them at any moment as easily as it's turning on others now.
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A hell of a lot better opinion than just mumbling about defeating some invisible enemy.

 
Pipes said:
Just trying to show that many agree with me.  I apologize for showing some optimism is such trying times.  You're right.  Enjoy your discussion on how many people are going to die. Time to check out of this ridiculous thread.
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Yeah, it's been overtaken by personal modelling and doomsday scenarios. Not a place for possible optimism. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
I get that this is stressful and scary. 

I dont get why posting stats and projection models and having a discussion about where we could be heading is just written off as doomsday scenarios.  

I mean I really hope those are wrong, but we cant ignore what other countries are going through and trying to be prepared for similar.  
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Never mind that this is somehow construed as rooting for people to die. :headsplode:

 
hagmania said:
USA will top the world in total cases by EOD.
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Well, sure.  China isn't reporting cases unless the person A) tests positive, and B) isn't quarantined, and C) has symptoms.

So if you are asymptomatic OR in quarantine -- you don't count as having the disease, even if you test positive.  Which is crazy.

 
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