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Official Dez Bryant (1 Viewer)

Despite my pessimism I'm rolling him out this week. MNF plus he's probably pissed after last week. No way he's getting 150 yards with Cassel but I don't think 6/80/1 is out of the question

 
I might start him this week. Cassel is starting to get more comfortable with the offense and he will be show casing for teams for next year.

I'm in a strong playoff push, this is the first time I'm strongly considering Dez post injury.

Tex

 
Almost certainly starting him, since I benched Cobb (and R Rodgers :cry: ) last night. Only other viable option would be Kendall Wright.

 
Starting him. Skins D isn't great and Dallas will probably be throwing. Dez usually has solid games against the Skins in DC.

 
It was him or Davante as my WR3...I'm going Dez. If he's truly an elite WR1 with Romo, he should still be able to put up solid WR2 numbers with any schmuck throwing the ball. That's the mark of a truly good WR, right? You've got to perform because YOU'RE good, not just because your QB is good. Having crap QB's hasn't stopped Hopkins.

 
I'm starting DeVante Parker over Dez Bryant this week, ppr league. I just don't consider Dez even a WR2 anymore. I've got 6 better receivers on my roster, starting 4 this week.

 
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Only starting Dez in 1/4 leagues. He should do ok with Cassell, but I don't expect the Cowboys to be able to move the ball at all today. Thinking Washington sells out to stop Dez and Cassell throws 3 picks, 2 on targets to Dez.

 
No way I'm sitting Dez in playoff week just based on talent. My options suck too as its Conley, or Inman in 1 league. or Funchess in the other. Dez it is.

 
Dez had his most targets (10) last time Cassel started..... vs a porous Redskins secondary I am starting him. Long rest for the Cowboys after playing on Thanksgiving and getting embarrassed. Believe he will come out motivated and big part of the game plan on MNF>

 
I benched him for B Marshall/M Evans/and CJ Anderson in PPR. I just don't trust him right now, but I don't really trust CJ either so who knows. I hope he has a good week so i can use him with confidence next week.

 
I need him to be an absolute monster (38 points in a non-PPR league) to make the playoffs. Not holding my breath (or doing anything but thinking ahead to the offseason in that league).

 
I know it's early, but is Dez shaping up to be someone people will avoid in drafts? Is anyone worried about his injury history?

 
MattFancy said:
I know it's early, but is Dez shaping up to be someone people will avoid in drafts? Is anyone worried about his injury history?
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Prior to last season, he hadn't missed a game since 2012. Assuming he makes it back to minicamp at close to full strength, there's no reason in my mind for concern on that front.

As to your first question, IMO there's a clear top 4 at WR coming into this season (Brown, OBJ, Julio, Hopkins) and a big jumble of guys behind them (Dez, AR15, Green, Watkins, Cooper, Evans, Jeffery) before the next drop-off. Where Dez belongs in that tier is something of a personal preference, but I could see an argument for having him at the top of that pile, or closer to the bottom. So far he's gone between WR5-WR9 in all of FBG's offseason survivor drafts and I don't expect that to change much by August unless we get news of a setback on his foot.

 
MattFancy said:
I know it's early, but is Dez shaping up to be someone people will avoid in drafts? Is anyone worried about his injury history?
Click to expand...
Reports are that there are no setbacks and he'll be fully healthy and expects to be participating in training camp.

Tex

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Prior to last season, he hadn't missed a game since 2012. Assuming he makes it back to minicamp at close to full strength, there's no reason in my mind for concern on that front.

As to your first question, IMO there's a clear top 4 at WR coming into this season (Brown, OBJ, Julio, Hopkins) and a big jumble of guys behind them (Dez, AR15, Green, Watkins, Cooper, Evans, Jeffery) before the next drop-off. Where Dez belongs in that tier is something of a personal preference, but I could see an argument for having him at the top of that pile, or closer to the bottom. So far he's gone between WR5-WR9 in all of FBG's offseason survivor drafts and I don't expect that to change much by August unless we get news of a setback on his foot.
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Brown is unique because Todd Haley has Brown on every fantasy team he owns, apparently. 

But the rest of the "big four" you have aren't locks.  They might all finish top 4 but I think people can make cases to say the Giants simply MUST have better balance to win real life games, Julio remains an on again, off again health concern, and Hopkins  has an unsustainable situation. 

Dez will out produce at least one of those guys. Last year was long, miserable season with not only injury but the misery of trying to play with that hot garbage they trotted out at QB. It made us forget a little bit that when he and Romo are out there, Dez is the 1st, 2nd, and often 3rd choice anytime they get remotely close to the ENdzone.  Touchdown variation is the thing that separates the greats from the super greats and Dez is right up there in terms of a legit chance to score a td or two every single week, regardless of game plan, flow, or opponent.  And the thing that is different this year is the presence of Elliot. That guy is going to get some attention and Dez will bust some big plays. 

With all that being said, the guy I didn't see in your list that might trump them all (sans Brown) is Robinson in Jax. He's quickly getting that Antonio Brown lovefest going. 

 
I am less concerned about Dez as an injury risk, but Romo as an injury risk. Kellen Moore/Dak Prescott, rookie, are scary propositions as back-ups for Dez to get the ball from.

 
dhockster said:
I am less concerned about Dez as an injury risk, but Romo as an injury risk. Kellen Moore/Dak Prescott, rookie, are scary propositions as back-ups for Dez to get the ball from.
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Agreed, as a Dez owner I really wanted them to sign Hoyer. Is there a MCcown available? Something stable. Fitz if he's willing. 

 
MattFancy said:
I know it's early, but is Dez shaping up to be someone people will avoid in drafts? Is anyone worried about his injury history?
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I'm hearing fantasy analysts telling people to stay away and I've seen on the FBG boards that people seem wary.  I'm not worried about it and if in a redraft I can get him in round 2/3 I'd be very happy.  All the reports out of Cowboys camp are that he's 100% but they're having him go easy on practice to work him back into football shape safely.

 
steelers1080 said:
I'm hearing fantasy analysts telling people to stay away and I've seen on the FBG boards that people seem wary.  I'm not worried about it and if in a redraft I can get him in round 2/3 I'd be very happy.  All the reports out of Cowboys camp are that he's 100% but they're having him go easy on practice to work him back into football shape safely.
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I don't know if it's a 'stay away' message, more of a use caution message.  There are a lot of red flags there this year between his health, romo's health and the cowboys just stinking.  I have also found, as a bryant owner, outside his one big season, he has been fairly hit or miss even with romo as qb.  I remember a number of times going into a 4th quarter of a cowboys and needing anything from him and coming up with nothing.  He's a big time player but he doesn't get fed by romo most games

 
killface said:
I don't know if it's a 'stay away' message, more of a use caution message.  There are a lot of red flags there this year between his health, romo's health and the cowboys just stinking.  I have also found, as a bryant owner, outside his one big season, he has been fairly hit or miss even with romo as qb.  I remember a number of times going into a 4th quarter of a cowboys and needing anything from him and coming up with nothing.  He's a big time player but he doesn't get fed by romo most games
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The bolded part shouldn't be overlooked. Compared to other Elite WR1s, it seems like Dez isn't forced the ball like others. In 2014, he finished 12th in Targets. In 2013, 7th. 2012, 14th. Through his career so far, he's only averaging 8 Targets a game. He does make good use of the targets he gets, but he's not a target hog like Beckham, Julio, Brown, etc.

 
MattFancy said:
The bolded part shouldn't be overlooked. Compared to other Elite WR1s, it seems like Dez isn't forced the ball like others. In 2014, he finished 12th in Targets. In 2013, 7th. 2012, 14th. Through his career so far, he's only averaging 8 Targets a game. He does make good use of the targets he gets, but he's not a target hog like Beckham, Julio, Brown, etc.
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And I have sat and watched so many games where that has absolutely killed me.  

 
It's not like he's getting 75 catches to Julio's 100.  He was averaging about 90 catches, so maybe 1 less catch per game.  It adds up over the course of a season, but he's not being vastly under targeted.

Also, couldn't this be an argument that a different QB would be better for Dez?  A less talented QB might hone in on his best target instead of spreading the ball around like Romo.

If Dez stays healthy all year I expect a 90 catch, 1300 yard, 12 TD year.  And, things could change.  Dez did his best when the running game was red hot.  If that happens this year with Zeke then maybe Dez does get most of the looks from Romo and increases his receptions this year.

 
Julio is averaging 10 targets/game through his career so far. That's an extra 32 targets a season, so about an extra 20 catches more a season that Dez. Dez has never caught more than 93 passes in a season, Julio has back to back 100+ catch seasons.

Dez was averaging those numbers you posted during his best 3yr stretch (2012-2014). So if you think he and Romo can regain that now, then sure, he could do that. But that seems hard to predict at this point.

 
MattFancy said:
Julio is averaging 10 targets/game through his career so far. That's an extra 32 targets a season, so about an extra 20 catches more a season that Dez. Dez has never caught more than 93 passes in a season, Julio has back to back 100+ catch seasons.

Dez was averaging those numbers you posted during his best 3yr stretch (2012-2014). So if you think he and Romo can regain that now, then sure, he could do that. But that seems hard to predict at this point.
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I agree that Dez could regress if he or Romo isn't healthy and that his numbers could drop, but in an ideal world for both Dez and Julio I think they have very similar outlooks.  In their three best seasons (disregarding fumbles) and based on 1 pt per 10 yards and 6 pts per TD; Julio 180 pts, 196 pts, 235 pts; Dez 201 pts, 210 pts, 228 pts.  Julio may get more yards, by a lot, but traditionally Dez is more of a red zone target than Julio is.  Julio's best year for TDs was 2012 and he got 10.  Dez got 9 in his 4th best year.  This past season was the first one in 4 years that Dez missed a game.  

Also, I think that my perception of Dez hate was overblown.  Saw/heard it from 3 sources over the weekend but checking now I see that many rankings still have him top 5 at WR, so perhaps it's just a minority who feel that his "time is done". 

 
I don't think Dez is "done". But I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't finish in the Top 10 this year, even if he stays healthy.

 
The secondary of the Skins did get better, so he might not be able to get 100 yards and 2 TDs on them, but I still think he ends up top 10.  I'd expect him to be in the 4-6 range by the end of the season.  If Romo goes down it would probably shift to the 7-9 range, unless Dak Prescott is 100% more amazing than anyone realizes.

 
He's only been a Top 5 WR in his career twice: 2014 (4th) & 2012 (4th). Would I be surprised if he finished that high in 2016? Not really. But I wouldn't be surprised if he finished towards the bottom of the Top 10-12 either.

 
MattFancy said:
The bolded part shouldn't be overlooked. Compared to other Elite WR1s, it seems like Dez isn't forced the ball like others. In 2014, he finished 12th in Targets. In 2013, 7th. 2012, 14th. Through his career so far, he's only averaging 8 Targets a game. He does make good use of the targets he gets, but he's not a target hog like Beckham, Julio, Brown, etc.
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NObody is a target hog like Julio and Brown.

Don't let the target info get TOO carried away. The last 3 seasons he's been healthy, he's finished as something like 4,6, and 3rd among PPR wrs.  I get the general pessimism when a guy has been hurt but wouldn't totally dismiss things. 

 
Shutout said:
NObody is a target hog like Julio and Brown.

Don't let the target info get TOO carried away. The last 3 seasons he's been healthy, he's finished as something like 4,6, and 3rd among PPR wrs.  I get the general pessimism when a guy has been hurt but wouldn't totally dismiss things. 
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I don't disagree. If Dez is there at the end of the 1st, I'd be tempted to grab him, but I think that's about where his value should be IMO. I see him as a bottom half of the Top 10 WR this season.

 
MattFancy said:
I don't disagree. If Dez is there at the end of the 1st, I'd be tempted to grab him, but I think that's about where his value should be IMO. I see him as a bottom half of the Top 10 WR this season.
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Yeah. I'm a known Dez and Julio lover but I get the caution, especially when so much is tied to Romo.

I have no problem if someone puts him back end of the top 10. I'd just hate to play in that league where some dude ends up with Brown/Dez :)

All being said, I think if Romo and Dez are healthy this year, the Cowboys know that's their bread and butter in the passing game. Would expect Dez to have a lot of targets and have a good chance of finishing top 4 or 5 mainly because the TDs make up such a big part of that and easily offsets a lot of other guys' extra 300 yards or 25 catches. 

 
MattFancy said:
I don't disagree. If Dez is there at the end of the 1st, I'd be tempted to grab him, but I think that's about where his value should be IMO. I see him as a bottom half of the Top 10 WR this season.
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Just curious, what would your ranking of WRs be this year?

Mine is:

  1. AB
  2. Julio
  3. Hopkins
  4. OBJ
  5. Dez
  6. AJ Green
  7. A Rob
  8. Cooper
  9. Evans
  10. Jordy
Thought about having Watkins, but I'm still dubious about a Rex offense and see Watkins as not very durable.

 
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