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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (3 Viewers)

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timschochet said:
When's the last time a sitting President vigorously campaigned for his successor? I can't remember one who did. 
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That seems to be because a lot of Presidents are fairly unpopular by the last year of the term.  I'm sure W was willing to campaign for McCain, but it would have been a hindrance to do so.

 
cap'n grunge said:
Maybe. But if i'm in his shoes i don't endorse until there is official resolution of the issue. He doesn't owe her anything. I guess he wants to do his part to protect the country from Trump.
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Bottom line, this is all about Trump.  The only calculated risk that's in error is doing anything that increases his chances of being president.  Delaying an endorsement does just that.  If Obama endorses someone who gets indicted, his failed endorsement is the least of what would matter at that point.

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
That seems to be because a lot of Presidents are fairly unpopular by the last year of the term.  I'm sure W was willing to campaign for McCain, but it would have been a hindrance to do so.
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There was still too much bad feeling between W and McCain after they were rivals in a previous race.

 
cobalt_27 said:
Pretty funny tweet from Hillary campaign....

https://twitter.com/hillaryclinton/status/740973710593654784
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We're two days into the general election campaign and it's already just amazing to contrast how much better she is at dealing with Trump's nonsense than the GOP field was.  Although in their defense they had to avoid alienating his supporters for a while as they waited for the collapse that never came, while she can go right at him.

 
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Sad day for America.  Agree Obama wouldn't endorse unless he felt sure he can block an indictment - which should come.  

4 or 8 years ago there will be a discussion like with Bush about how we ended up in a sorry state. We'll look back and some will claim we couldn't see it coming.

A pox on those who couldn't.

 
TobiasFunke said:
:lmao:

Here's an article on where he stands with the Hispanic vote discussing why polling is kind of unreliable but also giving his numbers over the 5 most recent polls: 18, 32, 21, 20 and 23.  Four of the five, and obviously the average, have him underperforming Romney's 27% mark that the GOP regarded as fatal.

ETA:  Also important that all of these polls took place before his comments on Curiel.
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Trump's abysmal support from Hispanics, Blacks, and women are--I think--insurmountable odds for him.  I was worried as recently as a couple weeks ago that he'd pivot to being less of an ####### and more measured in his attacks, particularly just focusing his brute force against Hillary.  But, he's all over the place and getting worse...I just can't see how he rehabilitates his image enough to bring in large blocs of voters who are rightfully so alienated by him.

 
W was so unpopular in 2008 he didn't even show up at the ####### convention! Bill Clinton was popular in 2000, despite Lewinsky, but Gore didn't want his help. I think Hillary does want Obama's help. Like nobody since George H W Bush, she has wedded herself to Obama/ she's basically campaigning for a 3rd term. 

 
Sammy3469 said:
8-10 is a big ask, but Rasmussen's poll today already has her up 4 with Hispanics split 50-50 (Reuters is already at 8 points, but that one has been a Dem lean this entire cycle).  Together that's probably a 6 point or so advantage.  At that spread, the Republicans get swamped everywhere. 

If that sort of spread holds for another couple of weeks, Trump may not make it out of the convention.  To put this in some perspective, Obama's biggest lead in 2012 was 4.5 points in the poll of polls.  With just these two results, Clinton is already up 3.1, so I won't be surprised if she's up by more than Obama ever was at some point next week. 

Rasmussen does this weekly and it's gone from:

+2 Trump

+5 Trump

+1 Clinton

+1 Clinton

+4 Clinton

So you've had a 9 point swing even with him in a month even considering his funky Hispanic numbers. 
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Rasmussen has been pretty bad for as many polls as they do, but it's usually a bias in favor of Republicans.  So that's a good number for her if it's worth anything.  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/?ex_cid=navlink

 
So let's see: the debate here seems to be between those who believe that Obama is part of Hillary's corruption, and those who believe that Obama is innocent and that Hillary will be indicted anyhow. 

The notion that there will be no indictment, not for any corrupt reason, but because Hillary Clinton is innocent, is apparently not worth any consideration. 

 
TobiasFunke said:
We're two days into the general election campaign and it's already just amazing to contrast how much better she is at dealing with Trump's nonsense than the GOP field was.  Although in their defense they had to avoid alienating his supporters for a while as they waited for the collapse that never came, while she can go right at him.
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There's been a style shift for sure.  Her SD speech and most of her California speech were aces, just from a tone perspective.  And, I'm sure she's brought in some sharp, young, media-savvy folks to handle her Twitter and social media stuff to bring out the right balance of substance and snark.

 
Saw this on FB and I guess this is where I'm headed:

1. I am THRILLED to be alive to see the first woman claim a major party nomination for president. 
2. Do I wish she were, as I think Kate said long ago, Bernie's slightly more radical Black sister? Yes.
3. Do I think she can beat Trump? Hell yes.
4. What should Bernie do? Keep fighting for our platform at the convention. 
5. And: Vocally support downticket candidates! CHANGE IS LOCAL FIRST.
6. What should the Bernie movement do now? Keep holding ALL Democrats feet to the fire. Keep moving them left. ‪#‎tothelefttotheleft‬
7. This doesn't mean tearing them apart. There is a difference between holding someone accountable and taking them down.
8. Finally, Hillary, despite my disagreement with at least some of her policies, gives me hope that resilient woman on this planet can thrive.

 
TobiasFunke said:
There are five states with Hispanic populations larger than Florida by percentage, including two swing states, Nevada and New Mexico (#1 by the way), and another that the Dems hope to steal or at least force the GOP to devote huge resources to or spring an upset over a GOP senator (Arizona).  And the state ranked 7th right behind Florida is also a swing state, Colorado.

So five of the top seven states with >20% Hispanic populations have important roles to play in the upcoming election. The two you mentioned are the only two that don't.

I think the Latino vote is a little more important than you think it is.
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Most predictions I've seen already concede NV, CO, and NM to Hillary and AZ to Trump.

FL, OH, and PA are the only true battle ground states (that Trump has to win to win).

FL is the only state with a large Hispanic population that is important this election. The Hispanics in FL are more diverse than the border states though and they are less likely to be offended by comments about illegal Mexicans and illegal Mexican rapists (the origin of liberals' "Trump is a racist/bigot/etc" meme). On the Hispanic totem pole, Mexico is viewed pretty low by the rest of the Spanish speaking world. 

The Hispanic vote is not as important as liberals make it out to be for this presidential election.

Middle class whites in FL, OH, and PA are going to decide this election. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Sad day for America.  Agree Obama wouldn't endorse unless he felt sure he can block an indictment - which should come.  

4 or 8 years ago there will be a discussion like with Bush about how we ended up in a sorry state. We'll look back and some will claim we couldn't see it coming.

A pox on those who couldn't.
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She'll be a fine President, Ham.

 
timschochet said:
So let's see: the debate here seems to be between those who believe that Obama is part of Hillary's corruption, and those who believe that Obama is innocent and that Hillary will be indicted anyhow. 

The notion that there will be no indictment, not for any corrupt reason, but because Hillary Clinton is innocent, is apparently not worth any consideration. 
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If the FBI has nothing, I've said from the beginning, I will get behind that and move on.  No corruption, no back room deals.  If it comes up empty, then there really will be nothing to see and/or not worth the time.

 
timschochet said:
The notion that there will be no indictment, not for any corrupt reason, but because Hillary Clinton is innocent, is apparently not worth any consideration. 
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Good to see you're finally coming around.

 
timschochet said:
When's the last time a sitting President vigorously campaigned for his successor? I can't remember one who did. 
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Probably the last time a successor was as weak as Hillary.

 
urbanhack said:
Saw this on FB and I guess this is where I'm headed:

1. I am THRILLED to be alive to see the first woman claim a major party nomination for president. 
2. Do I wish she were, as I think Kate said long ago, Bernie's slightly more radical Black sister? Yes.
3. Do I think she can beat Trump? Hell yes.
4. What should Bernie do? Keep fighting for our platform at the convention. 
5. And: Vocally support downticket candidates! CHANGE IS LOCAL FIRST.
6. What should the Bernie movement do now? Keep holding ALL Democrats feet to the fire. Keep moving them left. ‪#‎tothelefttotheleft‬
7. This doesn't mean tearing them apart. There is a difference between holding someone accountable and taking them down.
8. Finally, Hillary, despite my disagreement with at least some of her policies, gives me hope that resilient woman on this planet can thrive.
Click to expand...
With respect to #8, female cockroaches are inspired.

 
timschochet said:
Especially since Hillary Clinton is personally guilty of having ordered the murders of her enemies. Do you still believe this? 
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Absolutely I think she and Bill had a heavy hand in a lot of peoples unexplained deaths and disappearances. 

 
timschochet said:
When's the last time a sitting President vigorously campaigned for his successor? I can't remember one who did. 
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It's weird because the Presidential candidates are usually like the backup rookie QB that everyone loves but never seen play in the NFL.  Here, it feels more like Hillary is the backup QB who's blown games and is the backup for the reason. 

 
squistion said:
Hispanics will be voting in record numbers. Everyone in the Hispanic community has a relative, friend, co-worker or acquaintance who will be deported if Trump is elected and that gives them a personal connection and motivation to go to the polls in November.
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I'll repeat, can Caucasians finally achieve minority status in this country? 

 
jon_mx said:
I am not going to defend the election fraud claim, because it does seem weak, but your idea of completely debunked usually consists of finding one source who agrees with you.  Again, in this case you are probably correct. 




 
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I strongly agree with this as a general principle -- not about Tim in particular because I haven't noticed. But far, far too often, people on the internet use "debunked" as a synonym for "disputed."

 
TobiasFunke said:
As Nate himself retweeted this morning, House incumbents have won 168 of 170 primary races so far this election cycle. So this election cycle is pretty much exactly like any other, with just the one notable exception.  Nate is smart enough to understand the difference between an anomaly and a paradigm shift.




 




 
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Although as somebody else at 538 remarked, saying that this election cycle is pretty normal except for Trump is a bit like asking, "Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?"

 
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The Commish said:
Yeah...whoever thought she was going to or able to stay above the fray was fooling themselves.....an epic race to the bottom awaits us and I am ready for the mental gymnastics that will be on display :popcorn:  
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This is a valid concern.  While I love the expression of pithiness in that one, simple tweet, I'd be very wary if I were her team of getting too deep in the gutter with him.  That's his terrain and, while she had a nice moment there, Trump is better at this sort of warfare than she is.  

Best strategy here, IMO, is enjoy the moment, but don't stay there too long.  If this becomes a back-and-forth, he's ultimately going win that war.

 
timschochet said:
When's the last time a sitting President vigorously campaigned for his successor? I can't remember one who did. 
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Honestly?  I can't remember a candidate that relied so vigorously on a sitting President campaigning for them.  She needs him to do this.  It's one of the only ways to move the favorable needle in a positive direction.  The other is being "not Trump", which oddly enough is the way Trump moves his favorable numbers...by not being Hillary.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
We haven't even elected 1 female VP or President, now we are going to vote 2 in on the same ticket? OK...
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How many people care a lick about gender in 2016? A few feminists who consider femaleness a positive, and a few religious fundamentalists who think that women are unfit to lead and weren't going to vote for Hillary regardless of her VP choice. Choosing Warren as VP would do nothing to hurt Clinton's chances of being elected President.

 
The Commish said:
Honestly?  I can't remember a candidate that relied so vigorously on a sitting President campaigning for them.  She needs him to do this.  It's one of the only ways to move the favorable needle in a positive direction.  The other is being "not Trump", which oddly enough is the way Trump moves his favorable numbers...by not being Hillary.
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The two most least liked candidates in history. It is like both parties asked themselves "How can we lose this election?" and then went ahead with doing what the answers were.

 
Chadstroma said:
Hispanics, whether they know someone who could be deported or not, are already motivated to vote for Trump. That is a given.
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It's probably too late to do anything about it this go-around, but going forward, should Hispanics even be allowed to vote? They are very proud of their heritage, which is fine, but they would seem to have an inherent conflict of interest. We're building a wall.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
How many people care a lick about gender in 2016? A few feminists who consider femaleness a positive, and a few religious fundamentalists who think that women are unfit to lead and weren't going to vote for Hillary regardless of her VP choice. Choosing Warren as VP would do nothing to hurt Clinton's chances of being elected President.
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Inasmuch as them both being female. Agreed.

Warren could be exposed for being far left and it could hurt Clinton. So, it is not like it is the safest move in history. But because she is female? No. I don't think it matters other than some people liking the idea of two females on the ticket. Someone who doesn't like two females is somehow going to be ok with one female? Yea, I don't see that.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
It's probably too late to do anything about it this go-around, but going forward, should Hispanics even be allowed to vote? They are very proud of their heritage, which is fine, but they would seem to have an inherent conflict of interest. We're building a wall.
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According to Trump, if you are of Mexican decent you might as well not be a judge.... so, heck, I don't see why they should be able to vote. I guess we can make them build the wall and if they do a really good job maybe let them vote again.

 
Arizona Ron said:
Does Obama's endorsement really help Clinton?  Did anyone think he was on the fence with his endorsement?
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Not really see the big deal with the symbolic endorsement either.  Now him fundraising and campaigning for her is another story.  That guy is a campaigning wizard.   

 
Arizona Ron said:
Does Obama's endorsement really help Clinton?  Did anyone think he was on the fence with his endorsement?
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Bill didn't actively endorse Al Gore in 2000, IIRC. The thinking at the time was Bill was damaged goods because of Monica (among other things) and Al's need to create some space for himself.

 
cobalt_27 said:
If the FBI has nothing, I've said from the beginning, I will get behind that and move on.  No corruption, no back room deals.  If it comes up empty, then there really will be nothing to see and/or not worth the time.
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I don't think most serious people who have an understanding of the facts will believe that an indictment didn't come because she is innocent.  

Justice was merely deferred because "the other guy is worse."  

 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
It's probably too late to do anything about it this go-around, but going forward, should Hispanics even be allowed to vote? They are very proud of their heritage, which is fine, but they would seem to have an inherent conflict of interest. We're building a wall.
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this is interesting seeing as how things kinda went down this way on Tuesday

in north Hudson County , N.J. (which is heavily Hispanic) ballots had Hilary's name highlighted in yellow, while Mr.Sanders name was whited out. now, they got to vote, sure ... but they couldn't vote for anyone but Hilary.

cute, no?

saw a couple reports on this locally here, and the great majority of those who complained/felt duped were folks who only spoke Spanish.

that county is one of the most politically corrupt  areas of the country, and it sure seems like the machine democrats up there played those voters for the fool 

:thumbdown:

 
why do we even give a #### whether hillary deleted some emails or whatever?  i'd rather have guilty hillary (guiltary?) in there than the unpredictable, potentially unstable, racist, orange guy who could start WW3 at any moment with his stupid antics and comments. 

 
cobalt_27 said:
I might be naive here, but I don't think the FBI is or would tip their hand, especially to the POTUS.  

My best guess is, timing dictates Obama has to endorse Hillary in this moment and to withhold an endorsement would make matters really bad and raise a LOT of questions.  If Hillary gets indicted, it's not Obama's fault she lied to him.
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Nothing formal, but Washington is a company town.  I'm sure there's been a back channel update.

 
Scoresman said:
why do we even give a #### whether hillary deleted some emails or whatever?  i'd rather have guilty hillary (guiltary?) in there than the unpredictable, potentially unstable, racist, orange guy who could start WW3 at any moment with his stupid antics and comments. 
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And THIS is the bar we've set. 

 
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