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*** OFFICIAL *** In-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (4 Viewers)

That's not really the point though. If you acquire someone like Nelson or Marshall right now, you are essentially committing to keeping him and watching him decay on your roster because his trade value will keep eroding.
You can make statements like this on a messager board because it seems like some kind of profound strategy, but the reality is that in practice it's not as black and white as you paint it to be.

Marshall and Nelson are two of the most productive WRs in the league right now. They are 27-28 years of age. You could ride out their production for at least three more seasons and still be able to trade them for, at worst, a late first round pick to a contending team at age 31 (provided they are still productive, which is likely).

Are you suggesting that you don't see players like Roddy White, Andre Johnson or Reggie Wayne getting moved for pretty decent value - because I see it all the time, and I doubt the owners in any of my leagues are less sophisticated than then owners in your leagues.

 
Nelson wasn't even a 'sexy' pick when he was 26 and putting up 15 TD's. Besides I thought the point was to win not have the prettiest team on paper.
Yeah, we've been over this a lot by now. One route to winning is by accumulating value so you can buy whoever you want. That means investing in appreciating or stable assets so you can grow your roster's value instead of buying depreciating assets that create roster holes in the near future.
So the "near future" is 7 years away now?

Not that I'm totally disagreeing here, but Nelson just turned 28 a few months ago. He could easily be a guy that you plug in for the next 6 years without worrying about that roster spot. His age is basically the equivalent of a 22-23 year old running back in everything but perception.
The question is Jordy that or is he a situation dependent player. How much will any hiccups in health or younger players coming in affect his value going forward, even if he stays in GB.
Jordy Nelson was a second round pick by a highly successful, well respected organization. Why is he not talented, but situation dependant.

When you watch Jordy play what skill(s) does he lack?

I have a feeling I know the true underlying reasons why people think Nelson isn't "talented" but don't really want to go down that road in here.

 
Evil G said:
cstu said:
Evil G said:
12 Dynasty PPR, no contracts, QRRWWTKD + Flex + Superflex

Gave: Julio, Collie, Pierce

Got: Gio, Jordy, 2014 1st (mid to early)
I'm one of Julio's biggest fans, but damn that's a nice haul. Good job.
I am not so sure...I think Julio proves to be a monster next year, yet again. The pick is great if top 4.

If the pick is 6-8 range, I think it's a real crap shoot.
Even if that pick winds up being #6 overall... Julio for a top-10 dynasty WR, a top-10 dynasty RB, and a mid-1st in a strong draft? Yeah, I'm totally okay with that.
Jordy isn't close to being a top 10 dynasty WR. Close might not be the word, but he's closer to a low end WR2, than a low end WR1 imo.
Why? What skill(s) does he lack? Is it his consistent production from week to week and season to season or elite QB that pushes him so far away from the top 10 or outside the top 20 even?
He's underrated for the same reason that Wes Welker always is. And Danny Amendola. And Ed McCaffrey before them. I'm certainly not accusing the FF community as a whole of racism, just pointing out that bias is both powerful and pervasive.
Agreed. As I implied in my last post, what other WR that was a second round draft pick, made by a respected organization, that has performed even above those expectations would be considered not to be an elite talent?

Nelson has more than adequate speed and size, is sure handed, runs great routes, is tough over the middle and makes plays after the catch. What exactly makes him a lesser talent than any WR outside of the true "elites"?

 
what other WR that was a second round draft pick, made by a respected organization, that has performed even above those expectations would be considered not to be an elite talent?
Oh I hate guessing games. Wait, is it Greg Jennings?

You could ride out their production for at least three more seasons and still be able to trade them for, at worst, a late first round pick to a contending team at age 31 (provided they are still productive, which is likely).
You are right they will still have value if they are producing but I question if that is the exit value. YMMV but my experience is to get a 1st it either has to be a kingmaker move or has to have a similar expected window as a 1st round rookie. Shopping Vincent Jackson the past couple weeks even when he was getting multiple TDs it was hard to convince people it was a kingmaker move.

Nelson is not guaranteed to be playing in GB past 2014.

 
14 team Non-PPR QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,Flex,Flex,K,D

Team A is 5-2 gives

Doug Martin, David Wilson, 2014 1st & 2nd

For

Team B is 2-5 gives

Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, 2014 3rd
Normally, I'm more understanding of the win now side of deals, but this is pretty ugly. The Forte side is buying 1/2 season at the cost of 5+ seasons moving forward. Better hope he wins the title this year.
Team A is going all in for it this year. If it works out, I think it was a good trade. If not you're right, it's going to set him back quite a bit.

 
12 team PPR

Team A received:

Austin, Tavon STL WR

Jones, Julio ATL WR

Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick

Year 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick

Team B received:

Green, A.J. CIN WR

Hilton, T.Y. IND WR
Slam dunk for the team getting Julio and the picks.
Yeah. I suppose I had to do it. I was hesitant as I all but give up on this year. 20 total points from division leader. 2-5 record with 3 losses by a combined 7 pts. With the bad luck and a couple injuries I just got the feeling it wasn't my year. Might as well load up.

 
Evil G said:
cstu said:
Evil G said:
12 Dynasty PPR, no contracts, QRRWWTKD + Flex + Superflex

Gave: Julio, Collie, Pierce

Got: Gio, Jordy, 2014 1st (mid to early)
I'm one of Julio's biggest fans, but damn that's a nice haul. Good job.
I am not so sure...I think Julio proves to be a monster next year, yet again. The pick is great if top 4.

If the pick is 6-8 range, I think it's a real crap shoot.
Even if that pick winds up being #6 overall... Julio for a top-10 dynasty WR, a top-10 dynasty RB, and a mid-1st in a strong draft? Yeah, I'm totally okay with that.
Jordy isn't close to being a top 10 dynasty WR. Close might not be the word, but he's closer to a low end WR2, than a low end WR1 imo.
Why? What skill(s) does he lack? Is it his consistent production from week to week and season to season or elite QB that pushes him so far away from the top 10 or outside the top 20 even?
His TD's weigh heavy towards his scoring. One week he's 3/66/2, another he has a long 64 yd TD which gives him a solid looking line of 4/113/1. I feel like if I owned Jordy in dynasties, I'm hoping he gets a TD or two to show great production from an otherwise mediocre 5/42 game if he doesn't get into the endzone. I'd rather have a receiving option who doesn't rely on TD's so much. Scoring TD's is definitely a bonus, but I want options that are more capable of putting up 8/100 consistently. If I get that TD or two, feels like it puts me over the top than having to rely on a 60 yard TD which I feel like is what I would have to do with Jordy.

I'd much rather lean on Jordy in a redraft, because he could put you over the top for a season, just don't think he's capable of this output for the next five+ years like Randall Cobb is. I feel like Cobb is a way more versatile WR option. The one thing I do love about Jordy is that he's great at ball tracking and his field awareness to be able to almost always get two feet down.

 
Evil G said:
cstu said:
Evil G said:
12 Dynasty PPR, no contracts, QRRWWTKD + Flex + Superflex

Gave: Julio, Collie, Pierce

Got: Gio, Jordy, 2014 1st (mid to early)
I'm one of Julio's biggest fans, but damn that's a nice haul. Good job.
I am not so sure...I think Julio proves to be a monster next year, yet again. The pick is great if top 4.

If the pick is 6-8 range, I think it's a real crap shoot.
Even if that pick winds up being #6 overall... Julio for a top-10 dynasty WR, a top-10 dynasty RB, and a mid-1st in a strong draft? Yeah, I'm totally okay with that.
Jordy isn't close to being a top 10 dynasty WR. Close might not be the word, but he's closer to a low end WR2, than a low end WR1 imo.
Difference of opinion, then. I've got him 10th in my rankings. He's a whopping 4 months older than Calvin Johnson (who doesn't seem to have any age-related concerns surrounding him). In 2011, he was the #2 fantasy receiver. At the time of his injury in 2012, he was the #4 fantasy receiver. So far this season, he's the #9 fantasy receiver (despite having his bye- give every receiver whose had a bye their average for that week and Jordy Nelson is the #1 fantasy receiver this year). He's tied with Dez and Calvin for the most touchdowns (27 each) since the start of the 2011 season, despite missing more time than either. Granted, he does very slightly worse in PPR, but... what more do you want from him? He may not be as sexy of a pick as a Julio, Green, Calvin, Dez, or Demaryius, but he sure is as productive, and has been over just as long of a timeline.

Criminally underrated fantasy receiver.
I'm actually starting to see some teams move Calvin in my leagues. I don't think there's a big panic yet, but he's kind of a unique case because he has the potential to produce at a level above the other WRs and there's really nobody else like that. That's going to help him maintain top trade value even as he gets older. You can make a pretty good case that 3 years of Calvin are worth more than 5-6 years of anybody else.

Jordy isn't that good and he's already at an age where a lot of owners will balk if you're looking to move him. The reason he's nowhere near Dez/Thomas/Green/Julio in dynasty value isn't because he isn't a "sexy" pick, but rather because he's significantly older than all of them. If Jordy was producing like this and he was 25 he would be a lot more highly regarded, but at his age he's basically a car with no resale value. You can use him for the next few seasons, but you won't be able to sell him back for anything of note.

He's in a similar situation to Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald. They're good players if you're only looking at the functional value. There's minimal chance for exit value though and that's what keeps them below guys like Thomas, Blackmon, and Green in the eyes of most dynasty traders.
Really? We're afraid of TWENTY EIGHT YEAR OLD WRS now? This is getting insane. At first the market was avoiding 32 year old WRs because they were old. Then it started avoiding 30 year old WRs because in a year or two, they'd be old. Then I remember Patoons (iirc) advocating a theory that you should sell your WRs at 29, because in a year they'd be 30 and they'd suffer a drop in their value because when they're 30 the market would start devaluing them because they're only two years away from 32. Now we're avoiding 28 year old WRs because next year they'll be 29, and at that point the market will have wised to Patoon's strategy of selling 29 year old WRs to avoid the age 30 value drop in anticipation of age 32 when the WR will be old? What's next, starting to get nervous about 26 year old WRs because they're getting dangerously close to that age 28 tipping points where they'll suddenly be one year away from being one year away from being two years away from being old?

To a point, this behavior is rational. A decade ago, people weren't devaluing WRs enough prior to age 32. It makes sense to have value slope downward more gently as a player ages, rather than no drop at all early in the career leading up to a very sudden and dramatic drop all at once. That only applies to a certain point, though. Eventually, we reach the point where significantly worrying about a player's age becomes crazysauce. Jordy is 28 years old. There's no reason at all to believe he doesn't have another 5+ years in him. If the market is balking at Jordy, and that hesitation is irrational, the correct response isn't to say "well, the market is being irrational here, so I guess I should just be equally irrational, because what's the point of owning a guy who scores a ton of points if I can't sell him?"

I'm not saying we should put him above Thomas or Green (I'd put him above Blackmon, because Blackmon is one misstep away from a mandatory year-long vacation). That's a false dilemma. I'm saying he deserves to be in the top 10. There are lots of spots in my top 10 that are still below Calvin/Green/Julio/Demaryius/Dez/Harvin. Those spots are filled with guys like Cruz, Cobb, and yes, "old" guys like Marshall and Nelson.

 
Jordy has averaged almost 75 yards / game the past three years; Cobb is at almost 67 yards / game last year and this. Their TD rates are .5 / game (Cobb) vs .8 (Nelson). Cobb may be worth more in dynasty, but it's entirely based on age. Jordy is the better player. By far.

 
Nelson wasn't even a 'sexy' pick when he was 26 and putting up 15 TD's. Besides I thought the point was to win not have the prettiest team on paper.
Yeah, we've been over this a lot by now. One route to winning is by accumulating value so you can buy whoever you want. That means investing in appreciating or stable assets so you can grow your roster's value instead of buying depreciating assets that create roster holes in the near future.

One of the savvy owners in one of my leagues (2x defending champion) just made an interesting trade along those lines a couple weeks ago. He gave up Calvin Johnson for Gronk and two 2nds. I can guarantee you that the trade was motivated at least in part by age. If he had kept Calvin, he would have gotten 2-6 years of difference maker production and zero exit value. By switching to Gronk, he still gets a few years of difference maker production, except now when Gronk is 26-27 he can pull off the same kind of maneuver. Thus he'll be maintaining/growing his roster value whereas if he had kept Calvin the roster value would've been decaying. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

This is just basic mathematics and it's the underlying logic behind the "pretty roster" approach and the pervasive age-paranoia that a lot of owners practice. It is actually the correct strategy, provided that you can make the right assessments and that you don't swing the pendulum so far in the youth-crazy direction that you're selling off great veterans for mediocre youth just to get younger.
There's only one route to winning. That route is scoring more points than your opponent. Since you have no control over how many points your opponent scores, that route can be simplified to "scoring more points". That's it, that's the one and only route to victory in fantasy football. Score points.

Guys with huge trade value are nice in that you can use them to acquire other guys who score points... but the trade value is a means, and scoring points is the end. If you already have a guy who is scoring points (like, say, Jordy Nelson), then his trade value is irrelevant, because you've already reached the end point of the equation. If we created two hypothetical players, and the first player scored points like Marshall Faulk but had the trade value of Mewelde Moore, and the second guy scored points like Mewelde Moore but had the trade value of Marshall Faulk, I think it's pretty clear which is the guy you'd rather own in dynasty leagues.

 
Pretty sure EBF is virtually the only guy on the planet who thinks a 28 YO stud WR is too old. He also started a thread about CJ Spiller reaching the end, prior to last year, when Spiller was all of 25, and repeatedly has harped about exit value being worth more than production. Selling time on RBs is 25/26, WRs 28 in his world. It's pretty far from typical -- might work for him because he watches a ton of CFB and is a better scout than most, but it's not representative of typical successful dynasty strategy at all.

 
If we created two hypothetical players, and the first player scored points like Marshall Faulk but had the trade value of Mewelde Moore, and the second guy scored points like Mewelde Moore but had the trade value of Marshall Faulk, I think it's pretty clear which is the guy you'd rather own in dynasty leagues.
Let's all trade Chris Michael for Fred Jackson.

What's next, starting to get nervous about 26 year old WRs because they're getting dangerously close to that age 28 tipping points where they'll suddenly be one year away from being one year away from being two years away from being old?
26 is definitely an age of concern because it's likely the first time the NFL market changes the expected value of players as opposed to initial draft stock. We should worry about Maclin, Britt, Decker, and Nicks and reconsider our evaluation of their talent before the NFL decides for us.

 
Pretty sure EBF is virtually the only guy on the planet who thinks a 28 YO stud WR is too old. He also started a thread about CJ Spiller reaching the end, prior to last year, when Spiller was all of 25, and repeatedly has harped about exit value being worth more than production. Selling time on RBs is 25/26, WRs 28 in his world. It's pretty far from typical -- might work for him because he watches a ton of CFB and is a better scout than most, but it's not representative of typical successful dynasty strategy at all.
Not at all. It's pretty common, actually. There are guys in each of my leagues who wouldn't consider paying fair value for Brandon Marshall, due to age, despite being in the hunt. Many value Cobb much more than Victor Cruz, due to age, despite Cruz being healthier, more productive, and less reliant on situation.

 
Highly doubt he's going to maintain this level of production for 6 more years.

That's not really the point though. If you acquire someone like Nelson or Marshall right now, you are essentially committing to keeping him and watching him decay on your roster because his trade value will keep eroding. That's why those players are ranked comfortably behind younger options with similar ppg.

No real mystery in that. It's just a natural consequence of the dynasty format and the way people approach it.

In two years, Julio Jones has the same trade value that he does today. In two years, Jordy Nelson is untradeable.

That's why you see such a strong preference for the youth. If you're just looking at the production you're missing part of the equation.
I get the theory, though I think the feasibility of actually pulling it off is low.

That said, my main contention was that banking on a wide receiver at the ripe old age of 28 was going to leave you with a roster hole in the near future. Doug Martin will be on his last legs by the time a 28 year old receiver is on his last legs.

His TD's weigh heavy towards his scoring. One week he's 3/66/2, another he has a long 64 yd TD which gives him a solid looking line of 4/113/1. I feel like if I owned Jordy in dynasties, I'm hoping he gets a TD or two to show great production from an otherwise mediocre 5/42 game if he doesn't get into the endzone. I'd rather have a receiving option who doesn't rely on TD's so much. Scoring TD's is definitely a bonus, but I want options that are more capable of putting up 8/100 consistently. If I get that TD or two, feels like it puts me over the top than having to rely on a 60 yard TD which I feel like is what I would have to do with Jordy.
In his last full season he had 1263 yards receiving. This year he is on pace for 1402, which would be top 5 in yardage alone in a typical season.

 
Evil G said:
cstu said:
Evil G said:
12 Dynasty PPR, no contracts, QRRWWTKD + Flex + Superflex

Gave: Julio, Collie, Pierce

Got: Gio, Jordy, 2014 1st (mid to early)
I'm one of Julio's biggest fans, but damn that's a nice haul. Good job.
I am not so sure...I think Julio proves to be a monster next year, yet again. The pick is great if top 4.

If the pick is 6-8 range, I think it's a real crap shoot.
Even if that pick winds up being #6 overall... Julio for a top-10 dynasty WR, a top-10 dynasty RB, and a mid-1st in a strong draft? Yeah, I'm totally okay with that.
Jordy isn't close to being a top 10 dynasty WR. Close might not be the word, but he's closer to a low end WR2, than a low end WR1 imo.
Why? What skill(s) does he lack? Is it his consistent production from week to week and season to season or elite QB that pushes him so far away from the top 10 or outside the top 20 even?
His TD's weigh heavy towards his scoring. One week he's 3/66/2, another he has a long 64 yd TD which gives him a solid looking line of 4/113/1. I feel like if I owned Jordy in dynasties, I'm hoping he gets a TD or two to show great production from an otherwise mediocre 5/42 game if he doesn't get into the endzone. I'd rather have a receiving option who doesn't rely on TD's so much. Scoring TD's is definitely a bonus, but I want options that are more capable of putting up 8/100 consistently. If I get that TD or two, feels like it puts me over the top than having to rely on a 60 yard TD which I feel like is what I would have to do with Jordy.

I'd much rather lean on Jordy in a redraft, because he could put you over the top for a season, just don't think he's capable of this output for the next five+ years like Randall Cobb is. I feel like Cobb is a way more versatile WR option. The one thing I do love about Jordy is that he's great at ball tracking and his field awareness to be able to almost always get two feet down.
At some point, a player scores TDs so consistently that they are a reliable part of his scoring rather than a fluke or a streak. Again, Jordy ties Calvin and Dez for the league lead in TDs over the last 3 years, despite playing in fewer games than either. Dez and Calvin are both consistent TD scorers. That's part of their game, and always will be. Why not Jordy?

 
Pretty sure EBF is virtually the only guy on the planet who thinks a 28 YO stud WR is too old. He also started a thread about CJ Spiller reaching the end, prior to last year, when Spiller was all of 25, and repeatedly has harped about exit value being worth more than production. Selling time on RBs is 25/26, WRs 28 in his world. It's pretty far from typical -- might work for him because he watches a ton of CFB and is a better scout than most, but it's not representative of typical successful dynasty strategy at all.
Not at all. It's pretty common, actually. There are guys in each of my leagues who wouldn't consider paying fair value for Brandon Marshall, due to age, despite being in the hunt. Many value Cobb much more than Victor Cruz, due to age, despite Cruz being healthier, more productive, and less reliant on situation.
You're right -- but most of those types of owners are just fish begging to be taken advantage of in my experience. I'm not in any leagues w/ EBF but I'd guess that he'd be a step or two up from most of those guys.

 
Pretty sure EBF is virtually the only guy on the planet who thinks a 28 YO stud WR is too old. He also started a thread about CJ Spiller reaching the end, prior to last year, when Spiller was all of 25, and repeatedly has harped about exit value being worth more than production. Selling time on RBs is 25/26, WRs 28 in his world. It's pretty far from typical -- might work for him because he watches a ton of CFB and is a better scout than most, but it's not representative of typical successful dynasty strategy at all.
Nailed it.

I do enjoy reading his takes on CFB, but this strategy that you outline....I haven't seen it work for him once. I'm in 2 dynasty leagues with him and he's made the playoffs once (I think) in 8 total seasons (about to be 10). To top it off, these leagues have developmental slots, so given his expertise on scouting college guys, you'd expect better results. ETA: And when I say he didn't make the playoffs....what I mean is that he was a bottom feeder team every year. It's not like he was edged out of the playoffs.

I'm not trying to put him on blast here. Just trying to provide some context. Realistically, what his strategy amounts to is being in a constant rebuild. Unless he hits on several guys who are fantasy starters off the bat, by the time they are fantasy relevant, they have entered the window where he starts selling them. It's silly.

 
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Pretty sure EBF is virtually the only guy on the planet who thinks a 28 YO stud WR is too old. He also started a thread about CJ Spiller reaching the end, prior to last year, when Spiller was all of 25, and repeatedly has harped about exit value being worth more than production. Selling time on RBs is 25/26, WRs 28 in his world. It's pretty far from typical -- might work for him because he watches a ton of CFB and is a better scout than most, but it's not representative of typical successful dynasty strategy at all.
Nailed it.

I do enjoy reading his takes on CFB, but this strategy that you outline....I haven't seen it work for him once. I'm in 2 dynasty leagues with him and he's made the playoffs once (I think) in 8 total seasons (about to be 10). To top it off, these leagues have developmental slots, so given his expertise on scouting college guys, you'd expect better results.

Realistically, what his strategy amounts to is being in a constant rebuild. Unless he hits on several guys who are fantasy starters off the bat, by the time they are fantasy relevant, they have entered the window where he starts selling them. It's silly.
Only played(ing) in one league with him (2nd season), in which he won the initial championship and currently has a top 2-5 roster, when healthy. He has D.Thomas, Julio, Blackmon, Crabtree, Shorts at WR, and Martin at RB. It's not easy to put that together in just over a year. He was early on every single name on the list, except Julio, whose value was established. Drafted Martin before the NFL draft, for example.

I don't agree with a lot of of his strategies, but I have seen it work for him, first hand.

 
The variance in FF is so great it would be very difficult to establish if somebody is playing optimally even in a 7-8 year window. Next to impossible if it's a competitive league.......

 
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To be fair no one was saying sell Calvin for peanuts or random picks. He was advocating selling down to Julio, Gronk, etc. Similarly elite players who are younger. I feel this has been discussed ad nauseam though and you guys are just preening.

 
To be fair no one was saying sell Calvin for peanuts or random picks. He was advocating selling down to Julio, Gronk, etc. Similarly elite players who are younger. I feel this has been discussed ad nauseam though and you guys are just preening.
Yep, it's been argued back and forth pretty much since the old yeller days, and even before that when the huddle was the place to be. But it's still a valid strategy discussion IMO.And some people, including EBF, take it way past older stud --> younger stud, which is where it gets dicy. Calvin --> AJ Green is one thing. McCoy --> Trent is another entirely.

 
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12 Team PPR (same league as deal involving Julio I just posted)

I gave:
Johnson, Chris TEN RB

I received:
Wilson, David NYG RB

 
what other WR that was a second round draft pick, made by a respected organization, that has performed even above those expectations would be considered not to be an elite talent?
Oh I hate guessing games. Wait, is it Greg Jennings?

You could ride out their production for at least three more seasons and still be able to trade them for, at worst, a late first round pick to a contending team at age 31 (provided they are still productive, which is likely).
You are right they will still have value if they are producing but I question if that is the exit value. YMMV but my experience is to get a 1st it either has to be a kingmaker move or has to have a similar expected window as a 1st round rookie. Shopping Vincent Jackson the past couple weeks even when he was getting multiple TDs it was hard to convince people it was a kingmaker move.

Nelson is not guaranteed to be playing in GB past 2014
Any WR is going to be QB dependant to some extent. No one questions Larry Fitzgerald's talent but we've seen that (really) bad QB play has killed his productions the last couple of seasons. So yes to that extent Nelson is situational dependant - that says little about his talent level though and applies to almost any WR.

 
Pretty sure EBF is virtually the only guy on the planet who thinks a 28 YO stud WR is too old. He also started a thread about CJ Spiller reaching the end, prior to last year, when Spiller was all of 25, and repeatedly has harped about exit value being worth more than production. Selling time on RBs is 25/26, WRs 28 in his world. It's pretty far from typical -- might work for him because he watches a ton of CFB and is a better scout than most, but it's not representative of typical successful dynasty strategy at all.
Nailed it.

I do enjoy reading his takes on CFB, but this strategy that you outline....I haven't seen it work for him once. I'm in 2 dynasty leagues with him and he's made the playoffs once (I think) in 8 total seasons (about to be 10). To top it off, these leagues have developmental slots, so given his expertise on scouting college guys, you'd expect better results. ETA: And when I say he didn't make the playoffs....what I mean is that he was a bottom feeder team every year. It's not like he was edged out of the playoffs.

I'm not trying to put him on blast here. Just trying to provide some context. Realistically, what his strategy amounts to is being in a constant rebuild. Unless he hits on several guys who are fantasy starters off the bat, by the time they are fantasy relevant, they have entered the window where he starts selling them. It's silly.
My BYB3 team has made the playoffs twice and looked like it would be in the mix again this year. Got killed by injuries and underperformance, but could easily bounce back and make the playoffs again next year.

My BYB4 team has absolutely sucked balls. No doubt about that. That's more because I had an AWFUL startup draft than because my strategies don't work. A correct strategy when incorrectly applied will still have catastrophic results. Also, a lot of my picks in there (Benson, D-Will) were not consistent with the strategy that I preach and the strategy that I usually practice. Should've stuck with my gut and taken Richardson and Ingram instead, but that's a moot point now.

Every team I've drafted in the past 8-9 years has made the playoffs within the first two seasons except that BYB4 squad. I had a net winning record across all my leagues last year and won one out of seven. I'd be happy to copy and paste all my rosters if people really need that. Here's the thing though, I don't claim to be the best dynasty owner on the planet. There are guys in my leagues who have been more successful. However, I've been doing this for 10 years now and I have a pretty good idea of what works/doesn't work, even if I don't always apply those ideas perfectly to my own team.

 
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That's not really the point though. If you acquire someone like Nelson or Marshall right now, you are essentially committing to keeping him and watching him decay on your roster because his trade value will keep eroding.
You can make statements like this on a messager board because it seems like some kind of profound strategy, but the reality is that in practice it's not as black and white as you paint it to be.
I agree that it's a lot easier in theory than in practice. That doesn't mean the theory isn't correct.

As for the old WRs, I've had guys like Fitz and Marshall for years. They are harder to trade than you'd think. I was not able to parlay one of those guys into a Blackmon or Dez despite trying repeatedly in several different leagues before those young WRs had really busted out. I'm not so sure that you can get a 1st round pick for a 30-31 year old WR in my leagues. Even if you can, a late 1st is pretty weak exit value compared to what you'll be able to get for a Dez or Green in two years.

This isn't to say that old WRs don't have value. I'm just pointing out why they're justifiably seen as far less valuable than equivalent young WRs.

 
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14 team Non-PPR QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,Flex,Flex,K,D

Team A is 5-2 gives

Doug Martin, David Wilson, 2014 1st & 2nd

For

Team B is 2-5 gives

Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, 2014 3rd
Looks like the Martin owner over reacted to his injury. Martin alone shod fetch that.
Absolutely. Looks like someone was taken behind the shed and beaten (badly) here.
That's the kind of trade that can set your team back YEARS. Very bad stuff IMO.

 
Two moves te premium ppr league 1/2/2/1/3 flex

Gave: TY Hilton

Received: Randal Cobb

Gave: Reuben randle and Jordan reed

Receive: Spiller and roddy white

 
I'm not saying we should put him above Thomas or Green (I'd put him above Blackmon, because Blackmon is one misstep away from a mandatory year-long vacation). That's a false dilemma. I'm saying he deserves to be in the top 10. There are lots of spots in my top 10 that are still below Calvin/Green/Julio/Demaryius/Dez/Harvin. Those spots are filled with guys like Cruz, Cobb, and yes, "old" guys like Marshall and Nelson.
I don't even disagree with this. I was really only pointing out why people are going to balk if you mention Nelson in the same category as those other guys.

As for the age stuff, I really don't see it constantly moving down to lower numbers. You want to trade a player AFTER his actual value has gone down, but BEFORE his perceived value has gone down. I'd say that number has always been around 26 for RBs and 27 for WRs. A RB will lose a lot of his remaining career value from 22-26, but he will probably maintain essentially the exact same ADP/trade value over that time. 26 is about the magical number where nobody is worried about his age yet, making it a great departure point if you can get the right value back. Sometimes you can't. Bear in mind that I'm talking about the difficulty of trading Fitzgerald and Marshall because I actually still own those guys. I saw first-hand how people devalue old WRs and decided to stay with the declining asset instead of taking any random crap WR.

There's only one route to winning. That route is scoring more points than your opponent. Since you have no control over how many points your opponent scores, that route can be simplified to "scoring more points". That's it, that's the one and only route to victory in fantasy football. Score points.

Guys with huge trade value are nice in that you can use them to acquire other guys who score points... but the trade value is a means, and scoring points is the end. If you already have a guy who is scoring points (like, say, Jordy Nelson), then his trade value is irrelevant, because you've already reached the end point of the equation.
We had this discussion a while back. It's really not as simple as you make it out to be. I think the currency analogy was effective in our previous discussion. Money itself has no functional value, but you would not say that money is irrelevant. That's because money allows you to acquire things with functional value. It is the same story with trade value in FF. Is currency. I would hardly say that currency is irrelevant towards building a great team.

Some of the best teams in my leagues were assembled by owners who constantly worked the market until they had so much currency that they could basically go out and build the dream roster. Those guys have been stacking up championships the last few years. If people think the "pretty roster" mindset is about collecting young players, they are really missing the point. It is about growing your roster value so you can buy more top players than anyone else.

The thing is, a lot of people who attempt that strategy fail spectacularly. So what you have are guys shipping out Adrian Peterson for David Wilson + late 1st round rookie pick or Larry Fitzgerald for Braylon Edwards + 2nd round rookie pick. Just like there is a set of savvy owners who play the youth-crazy game effectively, so too is there a different set of savvy owners who sit back and capitalize on the teams that go overboard and sell off their stars at a discount.

I think the "good" youth-crazy owners eventually outcompete the good conservative owners (that's the way it seems to play out in my leagues), but the good conservative owners outcompete the bad youth-crazy owners and tend to make the playoffs most years. I just don't see those guys having the really dominant kind of rosters that people dream of. They tend to be the 8-4 teams that get bounced by the monopoly kind of teams in the second round of the playoffs. So if you want to talk about an ideal hypothetical, I think the day trader who always sells/buys at the right team is the holy grail.

 
To be fair no one was saying sell Calvin for peanuts or random picks. He was advocating selling down to Julio, Gronk, etc. Similarly elite players who are younger. I feel this has been discussed ad nauseam though and you guys are just preening.
Yep, it's been argued back and forth pretty much since the old yeller days, and even before that when the huddle was the place to be. But it's still a valid strategy discussion IMO.And some people, including EBF, take it way past older stud --> younger stud, which is where it gets dicy. Calvin --> AJ Green is one thing. McCoy --> Trent is another entirely.
Actually, at this point my philosophy is that a good player is better than a young player. The reason I'm stuck with guys like Fitzgerald and Marshall some places is precisely because I wasn't willing to give them away just because they were getting old.

I think player quality should be the primary factor when assembling a set of dynasty rankings. However, within those clusters of players with equivalent talent, age becomes the next most important factor. This is nothing controversial. Everyone would rather have Demaryius Thomas than Andre Johnson.

Where it becomes more of a grey area is when you have to weigh an aging star against an untested prospect. There is no magic formula there and you can show success stories from the youth-crazy approach or the conservative proven talent approach.

As far as Trent goes, it's a bit early to reach a verdict there. Player values fluctuate. I think sometimes people lose sight of that. CJ Spiller after his first season was not fetching massive trade value. After his third season he was a top 15 pick in most leagues. Now he's probably sliding back towards his more moderate 2011 value. You can cherry pick the absolute apex of his value or the absolute valley if it suits your argument, but that might not be the most honest approach.

Same with Trent. Relative to the rest of his NFL career, his dynasty value is at rock bottom. That doesn't mean that 2 years from now your McCoy for Trent offer won't be laughed out of the building. Maybe it's unlikely at this point, but with young players it's kind of dangerous to make definitive statements about their dynasty value after ~20 games of their NFL career.

 
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Some of the best teams in my leagues were assembled by owners who constantly worked the market until they had so much currency that they could basically go out and build the dream roster. Those guys have been stacking up championships the last few years. If people think the "pretty roster" mindset is about collecting young players, they are really missing the point. It is about growing your roster value so you can buy more top players than anyone else.
There are several things I've seen long-term successful owners do:

- Build a strong team of young studs and then trade off older players to acquire 1st round picks, usually from less competitive teams so they end up high

- Work the waiver wire to find gems

- Make trades for key players to put the team over the top in the playoffs

- Start from scratch rebuild when the team is filled with older players and isn't built for anything more than slipping into the last playoff spot

 
I think it's also worth mentioning that we're ignoring the years spent waiting on young studs before they become studs.

You can't trade your older stud for a younger stud once they break out. By that time the ship has sailed. So let's say that you traded a 27 year old WR for Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas when they were coming into the league. Dez/Demaryius weren't studs off the bat. You were left sitting them, presumably with that oh so nasty "hole in your roster" for several years while they came about. You sat them on your bench trying to find a fill-in, maybe saw some flashes and chased some points after a good game only to get hit with a 2-17 performance in your lineup.

Then, bam, they broke out. You get them for a year or two, maybe three, and now they're the same age as that guy you traded away in the first place. Demaryius is about to turn 26. It's getting close to time to flip him if we want to avoid those 27/28 year old guys, but we just started getting good performances out of him not that long ago. So we had 2 and a half years of good Demaryius, then we move him so we can sit on a guy who, at best, is probably going to create a hole in our lineup for the next 2 years yet again. It's not like we're talking about moving from 1500/12 season to 1500/12 season here when we go get those younger players. Even in the best case scenario where you don't end up with a total bust, the chances are high that you're going to be waiting on your future stud for nearly as long as you get to use them before you have to flip them again and start the process all over.

Yet another problem is that careers aren't bell curves. Guys have bad seasons in the middle of them, and if they have them during that year that you want to trade them before they're seen as "almost old" you're screwed. You couldn't trade Brandon Marshall when he was about to turn 27 because he was on the Dolphins and his trade value was shot then. By the time he started playing like an elite player again he was on Chicago, and already in that "kinda old" range where his trade value was dinged fairly significantly. Same thing with Larry Fitzgerald. He saw huge decreases to his numbers, especially yards and YPR, right in that window where you want to trade him and people were generally much more down on him then.

Realistically, the chances of parlaying together a bunch of elite WR seasons while constantly trading back for the younger guy is virtually impossible to sustain. At BEST, you're looking at going through an on again off again approach where every couple years you have a young stud WR followed by a young up and comer on your bench who is eventually going to become a stud but isn't really helping you out in the meantime, assuming that your young but aging stud enters his trade window off the back of an elite season. Meanwhile, you have the potential for the whole thing to get blown up completely at any time if any of these 50/50 shots end up being a bust.

If you've got a guy that's going to be a top WR for 10 years, the chances that you're going to be able to parlay guys back and forth and end up with a top WR at the end of those 10 years that is still young and has trade value is infinitesimal. Even if you do pull it off, chances are good that you will have lost at least 4 of those years in the meantime waiting for one of those young guys to come about. You just need so many things to go right to even come close to getting a return on value over the course of that 10 years, it seems like a bad gamble.

 
That's not really the point though. If you acquire someone like Nelson or Marshall right now, you are essentially committing to keeping him and watching him decay on your roster because his trade value will keep eroding.
You can make statements like this on a messager board because it seems like some kind of profound strategy, but the reality is that in practice it's not as black and white as you paint it to be.
I agree that it's a lot easier in theory than in practice. That doesn't mean the theory isn't correct.

As for the old WRs, I've had guys like Fitz and Marshall for years. They are harder to trade than you'd think. I was not able to parlay one of those guys into a Blackmon or Dez despite trying repeatedly in several different leagues before those young WRs had really busted out. I'm not so sure that you can get a 1st round pick for a 30-31 year old WR in my leagues. Even if you can, a late 1st is pretty weak exit value compared to what you'll be able to get for a Dez or Green in two years.

This isn't to say that old WRs don't have value. I'm just pointing out why they're justifiably seen as far less valuable than equivalent young WRs.
Now you're talking about an endless circle of trading guys at their peak (26) for younger models so that you can flip those younger models in two years again - there's plenty of danger in that approach as has been pointed out in other threads.

No one is going to trade Blackmon or Dez for Marshall or Nelson right now - why would they? Those guys are just as productive and younger. If you're suggesting that we should run out and trade 28 year old Brandon Marshall for 24 year old Dez Bryant I'm sure no one would argue with that. However, If you're saying trade 28 year old Brandon Marshall for 21 year old DeAndre Hopkins then you are taking an unnessary risk and you're likely doing yourself a disservice.

You last (bolded) line is the equivalent of saying you're better off drinking clean water than dirty water if you're thirsty. Obviously you are better off with an equally productive younger player. No one in their right mind is arguing against that.

 
As far as Trent goes, it's a bit early to reach a verdict there. Player values fluctuate. I think sometimes people lose sight of that. CJ Spiller after his first season was not fetching massive trade value. After his third season he was a top 15 pick in most leagues. Now he's probably sliding back towards his more moderate 2011 value. You can cherry pick the absolute apex of his value or the absolute valley if it suits your argument, but that might not be the most honest approach.

Same with Trent. Relative to the rest of his NFL career, his dynasty value is at rock bottom. That doesn't mean that 2 years from now your McCoy for Trent offer won't be laughed out of the building. Maybe it's unlikely at this point, but with young players it's kind of dangerous to make definitive statements about their dynasty value after ~20 games of their NFL career.
You're too smart a guy to talk in circles the way you do man. You say it's too early to pass judgement on Richardson, when you continually bring up David Wilson as a bust, when he's had a fraction of the opportunity that Trent has been given. Wilson is a guy who we actually don't have enough of a sample size on to make a call, but because you didn't love him coming out, it's cool to write him off.

Call it what it is: you form an opinion on players before they play a single down in the NFL, and stick with that opinion. For years. Everyone who has been around these forums knows the deal. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attacking that approach at all. Actually, I think it's probably a better way to attack things than wildly moving guys up, down, and around in reaction to a few game sample size. But own your own methodology man.

Don't give me a cautious wait and see on Richardson. You're all in heart and soul on him being an elite talent. We all know it. Own your opinion, and if you're wrong, so freakin be it. Don't hedge with "hey, he might be Cedric Benson" or "it might be too early to pass judgement." Both of our opinions on Trent have been out there around here for years. Hedging now is weak as hell.

 
Nelson wasn't even a 'sexy' pick when he was 26 and putting up 15 TD's. Besides I thought the point was to win not have the prettiest team on paper.
Yeah, we've been over this a lot by now. One route to winning is by accumulating value so you can buy whoever you want. That means investing in appreciating or stable assets so you can grow your roster's value instead of buying depreciating assets that create roster holes in the near future.
So the "near future" is 7 years away now?

Not that I'm totally disagreeing here, but Nelson just turned 28 a few months ago. He could easily be a guy that you plug in for the next 6 years without worrying about that roster spot. His age is basically the equivalent of a 22-23 year old running back in everything but perception.
The question is Jordy that or is he a situation dependent player. How much will any hiccups in health or younger players coming in affect his value going forward, even if he stays in GB.
Jordy Nelson was a second round pick by a highly successful, well respected organization. Why is he not talented, but situation dependant.

When you watch Jordy play what skill(s) does he lack?

I have a feeling I know the true underlying reasons why people think Nelson isn't "talented" but don't really want to go down that road in here.
I think I do too.

He has a weird first name...Jordy? Really?

Anyway I see Jordy as getting to be that high level WR who is always better on your team than he is in trade value. He makes Rodgers look really good sometimes and Rodgers doesn't need much help. Anyway I agree he will never trade well because his value is hurt by his situation as much as it is helped. Rodgers gets alot of credit for those WR in GB and he should but some of those WR are actually pretty good.

 
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Realistically, the chances of parlaying together a bunch of elite WR seasons while constantly trading back for the younger guy is virtually impossible to sustain. At BEST, you're looking at going through an on again off again approach where every couple years you have a young stud WR followed by a young up and comer on your bench who is eventually going to become a stud but isn't really helping you out in the meantime, assuming that your young but aging stud enters his trade window off the back of an elite season. Meanwhile, you have the potential for the whole thing to get blown up completely at any time if any of these 50/50 shots end up being a bust.
I think you're missing a few key details.

Since established stars in their prime usually have more trade value than all but the very most hyped rookies, you're not making a straight up exchange. When I see teams making these deals, usually the team getting the younger player also gets a pick or two thrown in. Look at this thread. Nobody is trading LeSean McCoy for Gio Bernard, but you might see someone trade LeSean McCoy for Gio Bernard + draft picks. Those draft picks are an important part of this type of deal. They help offset the risk and increase the profit margin.

As far as the roster holes created by taking on developmental players, there's some truth in that. However, it's not really a valid criticism in the long term. Let's say you have the option of keeping Brandon Marshall for the next 4 years or trading him for DeAndre Hopkins and a 2nd round rookie pick. If you take the Marshall side, you get 4 years of useful production and then a giant hole in your roster. If you take the Hopkins side, you get 4 years of less useful production and 4 years from now when he's 25 he will command a higher trade value than Marshall. Then you can trade him for the 2017 version of Hopkins and repeat the cycle.

If you stick with this strategy and make the right assessments, the value of your roster will never go down. The people who ride Marshall until he retires will have to use their assets to acquire a replacement just to maintain their roster value whereas you can use all of those same assets (rookie picks, trade bait, etc) to ADD to your roster value. Stick with that strategy over 5-6 years and you should eventually see separation from the pack. The fact that you're constantly accumulating means that over time, you have so much value on your roster that you can start a contender while simultaneously grooming the next generation.

I think a lot of the critics and people who argue against this don't fully appreciate what I'm saying, which is not to trade every RB who turns 26 or every WR who turns 27-28. Players like Marshall and VJax who fill up the box score every week are like gold. If you look at any cluster of "next big thing candidates," very few of those guys are ever going to reach that level. That's why you see so many of the youth-crazy dynasty owners crash and burn while the teams who are willing to collect expiring stars tend to make the playoffs. I only recommend making the youth-crazy moves in cases where your degree of certainty is large enough to cover the margin for error. I.e. I would not trade Jason Witten for Gavin Escobar, but I would trade him for Tyler Eifert. Eifert has more long term value potential and I have enough confidence in him realizing that potential to a great enough extent that he offers more value moving forward than Witten. Gavin Escobar also has more long term value potential than Jason Witten, but since I think it's fairly unlikely that he ever realizes that potential, I'd take the instant points and keep Witten.

You'll note that when I use personal examples of trying to trade Fitzgerald and Marshall I was targeting absolute top tier prospects like Dez and Blackmon. I would only give away a proven star if I was 90% sure I was getting one back. I think you need to be extremely careful with these exchanges, lest you end up with a roster full of Braylon Edwards, Sidney Rice, and Roy Williams. Nobody is saying that this is easy. All I'm saying is that in instances where you can make the correct assessment, it is absolutely profitable to make these trades. We can argue about how good people really are at making these assessments, but the underlying math in an ideal hypothetical is beyond refutation. So from that standpoint any time you can make a 100% accurate read on a prospect and act accordingly by moving an equivalent older player, it is hugely profitable. Whether or not anyone can really do that is a lot more dubious.

 
Realistically, the chances of parlaying together a bunch of elite WR seasons while constantly trading back for the younger guy is virtually impossible to sustain. At BEST, you're looking at going through an on again off again approach where every couple years you have a young stud WR followed by a young up and comer on your bench who is eventually going to become a stud but isn't really helping you out in the meantime, assuming that your young but aging stud enters his trade window off the back of an elite season. Meanwhile, you have the potential for the whole thing to get blown up completely at any time if any of these 50/50 shots end up being a bust.
I think you're missing a few key details.

Since established stars in their prime usually have more trade value than all but the very most hyped rookies, you're not making a straight up exchange. When I see teams making these deals, usually the team getting the younger player also gets a pick or two thrown in. Look at this thread. Nobody is trading LeSean McCoy for Gio Bernard, but you might see someone trade LeSean McCoy for Gio Bernard + draft picks. Those draft picks are an important part of this type of deal. They help offset the risk and increase the profit margin.

As far as the roster holes created by taking on developmental players, there's some truth in that. However, it's not really a valid criticism in the long term. Let's say you have the option of keeping Brandon Marshall for the next 4 years or trading him for DeAndre Hopkins and a 2nd round rookie pick. If you take the Marshall side, you get 4 years of useful production and then a giant hole in your roster. If you take the Hopkins side, you get 4 years of less useful production and 4 years from now when he's 25 he will command a higher trade value than Marshall. Then you can trade him for the 2017 version of Hopkins and repeat the cycle.

If you stick with this strategy and make the right assessments, the value of your roster will never go down. The people who ride Marshall until he retires will have to use their assets to acquire a replacement just to maintain their roster value whereas you can use all of those same assets (rookie picks, trade bait, etc) to ADD to your roster value. Stick with that strategy over 5-6 years and you should eventually see separation from the pack. The fact that you're constantly accumulating means that over time, you have so much value on your roster that you can start a contender while simultaneously grooming the next generation.

I think a lot of the critics and people who argue against this don't fully appreciate what I'm saying, which is not to trade every RB who turns 26 or every WR who turns 27-28. Players like Marshall and VJax who fill up the box score every week are like gold. If you look at any cluster of "next big thing candidates," very few of those guys are ever going to reach that level. That's why you see so many of the youth-crazy dynasty owners crash and burn while the teams who are willing to collect expiring stars tend to make the playoffs. I only recommend making the youth-crazy moves in cases where your degree of certainty is large enough to cover the margin for error. I.e. I would not trade Jason Witten for Gavin Escobar, but I would trade him for Tyler Eifert. Eifert has more long term value potential and I have enough confidence in him realizing that potential to a great enough extent that he offers more value moving forward than Witten. Gavin Escobar also has more long term value potential than Jason Witten, but since I think it's fairly unlikely that he ever realizes that potential, I'd take the instant points and keep Witten.

You'll note that when I use personal examples of trying to trade Fitzgerald and Marshall I was targeting absolute top tier prospects like Dez and Blackmon. I would only give away a proven star if I was 90% sure I was getting one back. I think you need to be extremely careful with these exchanges, lest you end up with a roster full of Braylon Edwards, Sidney Rice, and Roy Williams. Nobody is saying that this is easy. All I'm saying is that in instances where you can make the correct assessment, it is absolutely profitable to make these trades. We can argue about how good people really are at making these assessments, but the underlying math in an ideal hypothetical is beyond refutation. So from that standpoint any time you can make a 100% accurate read on a prospect and act accordingly by moving an equivalent older player, it is hugely profitable. Whether or not anyone can really do that is a lot more dubious.
Let's put a name to it, as I assumed we were talking about guys younger than the 29 year old Marshall that you said you were "stuck with" because it was too late.

Let's say you own Demaryius. He turns 26 on Xmas. When are you looking to move him for someone younger?

 
Call it what it is: you form an opinion on players before they play a single down in the NFL, and stick with that opinion. For years. Everyone who has been around these forums knows the deal. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attacking that approach at all. Actually, I think it's probably a better way to attack things than wildly moving guys up, down, and around in reaction to a few game sample size. But own your own methodology man.
That's definitely my reputation. A lot of that stems from a few really high-profile examples like Mendenhall, Stewart, and McFadden that people often mention when I post. The irony there is that I don't think my pre-draft take on those players was THAT far off from how their NFL careers unfolded, but anyway...

People remember a few high-profile examples while being totally ignorant to all the times I jumped ship or reversed course. Does anyone ever mention that I had Knowshon Moreno rated as the #1 RB in his class and traded him after his rookie year for LeSean McCoy because I thought he looked like crap? No. Does anyone ever mention that I ( :bag: ) took Mark Ingram ahead of Julio Jones and AJ Green in one league before their rookie season and promptly traded him the next summer because I thought he looked like crap? No. To say that I'm stubborn and rigid because I still think Jonathan Stewart might have some good years ahead of him is kind of silly when I've jumped ship on guys like Jon Baldwin and Mark Ingram more recently despite being pretty high on them at one point.

I think there is some truth in what you're saying. There are a few players in every draft class (certainly not EVERY player) that I develop a strong opinion about, either positive or negative. With those players, I'm pretty slow to move the needle. By and large though, I don't think of myself as being that much more stubborn and rigid than anyone else. I actually try to question my assessments and reevaluate things pretty often.

As far as Trent goes, I've got him in 2 leagues and I've received many offers for him from different owners over the past couple months. So far I haven't been tempted to move him. That's not because I'm stubborn and rigid. I actually went back and read several scouting reports on him and watched several of his college games on YouTube. I've also seen two of his games for the Colts and taken a close look at their running game. Looking at everything, I reached a pretty honest decision that he's much better than his production would indicate and that he has a good chance to rebound. If my assessment is wrong and he ends up being a flop, it won't be because I'm oblivious to the obvious truth. It will be because my genuine opinion based on weighing all of the information was wrong.

The fact that it might LOOK like total bias is understandable. If you didn't have a strong opinion on Richardson before he came into the league, you're going to look at his 3.0 YPC and decide he sucks. You're going to look at anyone who still supports him as delusional and in denial. That doesn't mean you're right.

Even though I've used David Wilson as a cautionary tale, it is the same thing with him. Do I think he's going to succeed? Probably not. Do I think the story of his career is over? No. Do I think people who liked him before the draft should be jumping ship at the first remotely decent offer they receive? No. If their opinion of Wilson pre-NFL was that he was destined for stardom, I would expect them to have retained a lot of that optimism despite the adversity. This doesn't mean that those people are rigid and stubborn. Only that they've looked at the same things and reached different conclusions.

 
Let's put a name to it, as I assumed we were talking about guys younger than the 29 year old Marshall that you said you were "stuck with" because it was too late.

Let's say you own Demaryius. He turns 26 on Xmas. When are you looking to move him for someone younger?
Good question. Maybe I should be looking to move him for Julio right now in leagues where I'm out of the playoff race.

Trading away a superstar isn't just about recognizing an impending decline, but also in identifying a suitable replacement. There are some young guys out there who fit the mold in certain ways (Hopkins, Floyd, Patterson), but I can safely say that I would not even consider moving Thomas for one of those three. I don't have nearly enough confidence that they're top 10 WR talents in their own right. I don't see anyone in this upcoming rookie WR class who obviously has that level of ability either. Maybe I'll get stoked about Lache Seastrunk and do something there. Maybe I'll hold Thomas until he's 30 like I've done with Fitz and Marshall.

I really can't say anything specific, but if the opportunity ever materializes and the value makes sense, he will get his walking papers eventually.

 
As far as Trent goes, it's a bit early to reach a verdict there. Player values fluctuate. I think sometimes people lose sight of that. CJ Spiller after his first season was not fetching massive trade value. After his third season he was a top 15 pick in most leagues. Now he's probably sliding back towards his more moderate 2011 value. You can cherry pick the absolute apex of his value or the absolute valley if it suits your argument, but that might not be the most honest approach.

Same with Trent. Relative to the rest of his NFL career, his dynasty value is at rock bottom. That doesn't mean that 2 years from now your McCoy for Trent offer won't be laughed out of the building. Maybe it's unlikely at this point, but with young players it's kind of dangerous to make definitive statements about their dynasty value after ~20 games of their NFL career.
You're too smart a guy to talk in circles the way you do man. You say it's too early to pass judgement on Richardson, when you continually bring up David Wilson as a bust, when he's had a fraction of the opportunity that Trent has been given. Wilson is a guy who we actually don't have enough of a sample size on to make a call, but because you didn't love him coming out, it's cool to write him off.

Call it what it is: you form an opinion on players before they play a single down in the NFL, and stick with that opinion. For years. Everyone who has been around these forums knows the deal. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attacking that approach at all. Actually, I think it's probably a better way to attack things than wildly moving guys up, down, and around in reaction to a few game sample size. But own your own methodology man.

Don't give me a cautious wait and see on Richardson. You're all in heart and soul on him being an elite talent. We all know it. Own your opinion, and if you're wrong, so freakin be it. Don't hedge with "hey, he might be Cedric Benson" or "it might be too early to pass judgement." Both of our opinions on Trent have been out there around here for years. Hedging now is weak as hell.
I’m not seeing any issues with what EBF is saying relative to Trent Richardson. Nor do I see him talking in circles.

Seems like an honest opinion to me, which is all one can ask. Just because he is being more cautious on Trent at this point does not make the opinion less honest or “weak”. Opinions change over time and frankly, who wouldn’t be at the very least “cautious” about Trent?

Further, I don’t see how an opinion about one player, Trent, has anything to do with an opinion of another player, David Wilson. They are different players. Despite some similarities in circumstances, an opinion of one really has nothing to do with the other imo.

 
As far as Trent goes, it's a bit early to reach a verdict there. Player values fluctuate. I think sometimes people lose sight of that. CJ Spiller after his first season was not fetching massive trade value. After his third season he was a top 15 pick in most leagues. Now he's probably sliding back towards his more moderate 2011 value. You can cherry pick the absolute apex of his value or the absolute valley if it suits your argument, but that might not be the most honest approach.

Same with Trent. Relative to the rest of his NFL career, his dynasty value is at rock bottom. That doesn't mean that 2 years from now your McCoy for Trent offer won't be laughed out of the building. Maybe it's unlikely at this point, but with young players it's kind of dangerous to make definitive statements about their dynasty value after ~20 games of their NFL career.
You're too smart a guy to talk in circles the way you do man. You say it's too early to pass judgement on Richardson, when you continually bring up David Wilson as a bust, when he's had a fraction of the opportunity that Trent has been given. Wilson is a guy who we actually don't have enough of a sample size on to make a call, but because you didn't love him coming out, it's cool to write him off.

Call it what it is: you form an opinion on players before they play a single down in the NFL, and stick with that opinion. For years. Everyone who has been around these forums knows the deal. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attacking that approach at all. Actually, I think it's probably a better way to attack things than wildly moving guys up, down, and around in reaction to a few game sample size. But own your own methodology man.

Don't give me a cautious wait and see on Richardson. You're all in heart and soul on him being an elite talent. We all know it. Own your opinion, and if you're wrong, so freakin be it. Don't hedge with "hey, he might be Cedric Benson" or "it might be too early to pass judgement." Both of our opinions on Trent have been out there around here for years. Hedging now is weak as hell.
I’m not seeing any issues with what EBF is saying relative to Trent Richardson. Nor do I see him talking in circles.

Seems like an honest opinion to me, which is all one can ask. Just because he is being more cautious on Trent at this point does not make the opinion less honest or “weak”. Opinions change over time and frankly, who wouldn’t be at the very least “cautious” about Trent?

Further, I don’t see how an opinion about one player, Trent, has anything to do with an opinion of another player, David Wilson. They are different players. Despite some similarities in circumstances, an opinion of one really has nothing to do with the other imo.
What do you think about Trent, Ernol?

 
12 Team PPR (same league as deal involving Julio I just posted)

I gave:

Johnson, Chris TEN RB

I received:

Wilson, David NYG RB
Call me crazy but I'd rather have Wilson, despite the MASSIVE flop he's been this year. Guess I am still holding on to hope that he puts it all together. In a dynasty, CJ is getting close to the cliff. But I wouldn't blame any Wilson owner for making this trade.

 
As far as Trent goes, it's a bit early to reach a verdict there. Player values fluctuate. I think sometimes people lose sight of that. CJ Spiller after his first season was not fetching massive trade value. After his third season he was a top 15 pick in most leagues. Now he's probably sliding back towards his more moderate 2011 value. You can cherry pick the absolute apex of his value or the absolute valley if it suits your argument, but that might not be the most honest approach.

Same with Trent. Relative to the rest of his NFL career, his dynasty value is at rock bottom. That doesn't mean that 2 years from now your McCoy for Trent offer won't be laughed out of the building. Maybe it's unlikely at this point, but with young players it's kind of dangerous to make definitive statements about their dynasty value after ~20 games of their NFL career.
You're too smart a guy to talk in circles the way you do man. You say it's too early to pass judgement on Richardson, when you continually bring up David Wilson as a bust, when he's had a fraction of the opportunity that Trent has been given. Wilson is a guy who we actually don't have enough of a sample size on to make a call, but because you didn't love him coming out, it's cool to write him off.Call it what it is: you form an opinion on players before they play a single down in the NFL, and stick with that opinion. For years. Everyone who has been around these forums knows the deal. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attacking that approach at all. Actually, I think it's probably a better way to attack things than wildly moving guys up, down, and around in reaction to a few game sample size. But own your own methodology man.

Don't give me a cautious wait and see on Richardson. You're all in heart and soul on him being an elite talent. We all know it. Own your opinion, and if you're wrong, so freakin be it. Don't hedge with "hey, he might be Cedric Benson" or "it might be too early to pass judgement." Both of our opinions on Trent have been out there around here for years. Hedging now is weak as hell.
Im not seeing any issues with what EBF is saying relative to Trent Richardson. Nor do I see him talking in circles.

Seems like an honest opinion to me, which is all one can ask. Just because he is being more cautious on Trent at this point does not make the opinion less honest or weak. Opinions change over time and frankly, who wouldnt be at the very least cautious about Trent?

Further, I dont see how an opinion about one player, Trent, has anything to do with an opinion of another player, David Wilson. They are different players. Despite some similarities in circumstances, an opinion of one really has nothing to do with the other imo.
Roughly a ten year old argument man that you're catching the last few posts of...

 
JustinHawkins said:
12 Team PPR (same league as deal involving Julio I just posted)

I gave:

Johnson, Chris TEN RB

I received:

Wilson, David NYG RB
Call me crazy but I'd rather have Wilson, despite the MASSIVE flop he's been this year. Guess I am still holding on to hope that he puts it all together. In a dynasty, CJ is getting close to the cliff. But I wouldn't blame any Wilson owner for making this trade.
I'd take my chances with Wilson as well, but Johnson seems to be playing better and finally getting used in the passing game. The Titans OL has the potential to be great and make him usable for at least another year.

 
A couple of trade in my 12 team Dynasty PPR TE yardage bonus League

Team A gets:

Jacquizz Rodgers

Team B

Joseph Randle and a 2014 3rd rounder

Team C gets

Kenbrell Thompkins and Kyle Rudolph

Team D gets

Jason Witten and a 2014 3rd rounder

Team E gets

Stephen Hill and a 2014 2nd rounder

Team F gets

Shane Vereen

 
Call it what it is: you form an opinion on players before they play a single down in the NFL, and stick with that opinion. For years. Everyone who has been around these forums knows the deal. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attacking that approach at all. Actually, I think it's probably a better way to attack things than wildly moving guys up, down, and around in reaction to a few game sample size. But own your own methodology man.
That's definitely my reputation. A lot of that stems from a few really high-profile examples like Mendenhall, Stewart, and McFadden that people often mention when I post. The irony there is that I don't think my pre-draft take on those players was THAT far off from how their NFL careers unfolded, but anyway...
A reputation that is well deserved. In at least a hafl dozen different posts, you said this repeatedly about Richardson.

Richardson is a mortal lock to become a productive franchise RB in the NFL. He has no flaws.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=629566

Mortal lock essentially means a sure thing, a player that can not fail (barring injury).

 
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PPR dynasty

I traded: Eifert, 3rd in 2014

I got: Reed, 2nd in 2014
I like that trade a lot, not because I think either side won, but because I think if I were to come up with a generic trade that would cause me to move Eifert for Reed or Reed for Eifert, this is probably what it'd be. I think that's spot-on with my relative valuations of the two.

 

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