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Obviously you might be right, but I'm a little more optimistic. Russia is not a wealthy country, and building/maintaining a modern military is expensive. I still think it's pretty likely that they succeed in taking Ukraine (have fun with the occupation), but it's hard to watch this and feel like Russia poses any sort of a conventional threat to Europe. This seems closer to "Iraq with nukes" to the olden days of the USSR.
That’s a two way street, however. They have them, as do we, and several other nations, so they can’t just do as they please, because if they did launch them, they’d be dooming themselves as well.
Right. I get that. They get that. Mutually assured destruction was a catchphrase for a while for a reason.
#FckPutin.
This seems dangerous to me. I know it seems fun and humorous to mess with Putin this way, but right now he has to be feeling backed into a corner and clearly has always been paranoid. Making him more paranoid by showing that his personal yacht can be hacked into isn’t going to do good things for his mental stability or his decision making.Hackers Anonymous renamed Vladimir Putin’ s £73million superyacht “FCKPTN” and made it look as though it had crashed into Snake Island, in another attack on the president.
The group broke into the vessel’s maritime data and changed its destination to “Hell”, before changing it to the small island where 13 Ukrainians stood up to a Russian warship.
It also changed the name of the yacht, which boasts a helipad and a swimming pool that converts into a dance floor, to Anonymous and Anonleaks before FCKPTN.
The group wrote on Twitter : “Now Putin's yacht is on the right track!
“With love, #Anonymous.”
Nuclear weapons are great for deterring people from invading your country. They don't take territory or pacify local populations when you're trying to occupy them.
Eh, you know how when somebody is getting his ### whipped on the schoolyard and there's always some little kid who stands on the sideline taunting the loser? This is that taunt.
I think this is where game theory and the "acceptable losses" I mention come into play. Plus, we've most likely played our war games with the understanding or hope that he's a rational actor. Maybe we have calculated insanity, isolation, and paranoia into the equation, but that sounds awfully difficult to assess, plan for, and predict.
The ONLY reason they've been considered "formidable" in the past is because they have nuclear weapons.
Lot of discussion on this topic. My guess is all the crying, surrendering, calling home to mom videos you see are the conscripts. Notice their stories are all very similar. "We were on a training exercise for our compulsory service and now we're in Ukraine with people shooting at us." As @DA RAIDERS mentioned, maybe this was the plan from the start, throw in the C team and see what they can do. No real downside but plenty of potential upside. Obviously, didn't work out but they did make some inroads.
I would be shocked if they DIDN'T do this. Surely our military minds at West Point, Annapolis & Colorado Springs have studied enough history to know that dictators don't always act rationally. The fact that Putin is very nearly a dictator means they have certainly taken that into consideration.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure the modeling takes this into account. The modeling can't possibly predict accurately what will happen in those cases, though.
Not that anyone wants to find out, but, it does make me wonder how well maintained their nuclear capability is.
I’m sure nobody can even get to him. Has to be completely inaccessible.I know we generally stay out of assassination attempts on foreign dictators with whom we are not at war with - at least formally
...I will say that when I read the article about the failed Chechen Rebel assassination attempt on Zelnskyy yesterday, I immediately thought that we may have some of our own who could help make something like this happen without US involvement formally, and that attempt sort of opened that door a little. I don't, however, think that will happen. The risk is far too great.
There are always ways. He still has to eat and sleep and use the restroom and be around some people at times. It would be very, very difficult but I wouldn't call it impossible...maybe highly improbable which is why we wouldn't even attempt it unless he has already used nukes because the risk of trying and failing is too great.
I know we generally stay out of assassination attempts on foreign dictators with whom we are not at war with - at least formally
...I will say that when I read the article about the failed Chechen Rebel assassination attempt on Zelnskyy yesterday, I immediately thought that we may have some of our own who could help make something like this happen without US involvement formally, and that attempt sort of opened that door a little. I don't, however, think that will happen. The risk is far too great.
The only lists where Russia is in the top 2 is nuclear weapons and land mass. In every other metric, they are at the bottom of the top 10.
Fiona Hill was on Colbert and says he doesn’t even eat or drink anything at state dinners. I’m sure he’s game planned almost all of the ways people would come after him. I’m sure it’s not impossible but he might be the most difficult person in the world to kill.
The only thing is the ogliarchs are appointed to their position by Putin. Most ogliarchs aren't businessmen who have amassed tons of money and power on their own, they're guys who will be loyal to Putin that have been placed in leadership positions to do what he says. It's not quite like the owners hiring a commissioner, more like an owner hiring his own brother as the team's GM and cousin as director of personnel. Those guys aren't going to support an ouster.
...but he also has a lot more contact points and ways to be found as a leader of a country than Osama did...
Oh I’m sure our intelligence knows where he is, but I imagine it’s very difficult to get to him without bombing a building or something which we won’t do. Some 5-man team would probably have to go through a hundred people to reach him.He's not being assassinated, That being said, we found Osama
Why would they lose their fortunes if he is ousted? They are losing their fortunes NOW.
The guy has to eat, right? Someone has to feed him. That person: not a oligarch.He's not being assassinated, That being said, we found Osama
But that would be war for war's sake. Putin wants to reclaim Ukraine for the glory of Russia. He doesn't want to win back a nuclear wasteland.
I suppose sending a retaliatory nuke into the Kremlin or wherever Putin is holed up is considered assassination but he isn't getting taken out any other way but some outside party. Believe what you will.
I saw that and thought similar as well as, how you gonna collect it? Like the dude pulling the trigger is going to get out and collect.
"Nazi" probably carries a greater weight than "terrorist" in Mother Russia. There is also actual Nazi's in Ukraine he can point to so...
Was reading about this on another board and via links not posted into this thread. The oligarchs, generally, are not independent actors. There are apparently some that can oppose Putin from a distance, but probably not many that can foment something against Putin internally.
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