*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (6 Viewers)

[New Binky the Doormat]

Merz tells Trump ‘more pressure’ needed on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine

Trump suggests maybe better letting Russia and Ukraine ‘fight for a while’ before intervening

I really wish the US didn't seem so aimless here.

we're doing a great job as the Kremlin's press secretary

 

[fatness]

Frontline report: Ghost helicopters drop Ukrainian hunters deep behind Russian lines under cover of darkness - Euromaidan Press

Ukrainian special forces disappear into enemy forests after helicopter raid, leaving Russian commanders wondering who's watching from the shadows.

euromaidanpress.com

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Kupiansk direction. Here, along the Oskil River near Kupiansk, Ukrainian special forces just carried out one of the boldest operations of the war. In a surprise helicopter raid deep behind Russian lines, they landed undetected and tore through dugouts, safe houses, and staging zones, shattering Russian preparations before their offensive could even begin.

The Ukrainian Special Forces involved in this operation were deployed using American UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, flying low to avoid being detected by the Russians. Penetrating deep behind Russian lines, the helicopters were able to land and dismount several dozen Ukrainian operators before returning safely to friendly territory. Once on the ground, the Ukrainian troops moved quickly and with purpose. After reaching their targets, they launched a series of highly effective and deadly raids against Russian forces. They cleared forest belts and residential areas of enemy soldiers who had been preparing to cross the river. Russian troops were caught completely off guard, never expecting an attack from their rear. Several dugouts were quickly encircled, and numerous Russian soldiers were captured in the confusion. Taking full advantage of surprise and terrain, Ukrainian operators concealed themselves in forested areas, waiting for small Russian infantry groups that were either sent to find them, or were moving to new positions completely unaware.

 

[Chadstroma]

Frontline report: Ghost helicopters drop Ukrainian hunters deep behind Russian lines under cover of darkness - Euromaidan Press

Ukrainian special forces disappear into enemy forests after helicopter raid, leaving Russian commanders wondering who's watching from the shadows.

euromaidanpress.com

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Kupiansk direction. Here, along the Oskil River near Kupiansk, Ukrainian special forces just carried out one of the boldest operations of the war. In a surprise helicopter raid deep behind Russian lines, they landed undetected and tore through dugouts, safe houses, and staging zones, shattering Russian preparations before their offensive could even begin.

The Ukrainian Special Forces involved in this operation were deployed using American UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, flying low to avoid being detected by the Russians. Penetrating deep behind Russian lines, the helicopters were able to land and dismount several dozen Ukrainian operators before returning safely to friendly territory. Once on the ground, the Ukrainian troops moved quickly and with purpose. After reaching their targets, they launched a series of highly effective and deadly raids against Russian forces. They cleared forest belts and residential areas of enemy soldiers who had been preparing to cross the river. Russian troops were caught completely off guard, never expecting an attack from their rear. Several dugouts were quickly encircled, and numerous Russian soldiers were captured in the confusion. Taking full advantage of surprise and terrain, Ukrainian operators concealed themselves in forested areas, waiting for small Russian infantry groups that were either sent to find them, or were moving to new positions completely unaware.

Badass dudes. Slava Ukraine

 

[Don't Toews Me]

The missile math just isn’t in Ukraine’s favor

Sad to say, but while the strike does complicate where Russia should base its strategic bombers and how to protect them, the military trend is still in the Kremlin’s favor, with or without harsher economic sanctions. And as Russia ramps up its production of drones and ballistic missiles, the air war is getting increasingly difficult for Ukraine.

Currently, the country is believed to have eight Patriot missile batteries, yet only half a dozen are thought to be functioning at any one time because of repairs and maintenance schedules. The Patriots are about the only weapon Ukraine has to intercept Russian ballistic missiles, but it often takes a pair of Patriot interceptors to knock out an incoming missile.

Meanwhile, according to Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Russia plans to produce approximately 3,000 long-range missiles in 2025, including 750 Iskander ballistic missiles and more than 560 Kh-101 missiles. And though exactly how many Patriot missiles Ukraine has on hand is a closely guarded secret, most military observers suspect it’s less than 200. Even if Trump were to replenish the stock, or allow Ukraine to buy more missiles and batteries, Lockheed Martin only plans to boost missile output to 600 or so per year, and even a sympathetic administration wouldn’t want all of them transferred to Ukraine.

Exclusive: Ukraine could face 500+ Russian drones a night as Kremlin builds new launch sites

Russia will soon be able to deploy more than 500 long-range drones a night to attack Ukraine as it ramps up production and builds new launch sites for them, a source in Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) has told the Kyiv Independent.

According to the source, Russia's production rate for one type of drone — Shahed-type Gerans — is up to 70 units per day, from a reported 21 a day last year, and Moscow will soon have 12-15 new launch sites in operation.

Three of these were identified by Ukrainian media in March, the remaining have not been previously reported.

Only three are still under construction, with the others already in the process of becoming operational, the source said.

Until recently, Russian launches have depended on just five launch sites: Kursk, the port towns of Yeysk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai, and two sites in occupied Crimea, Cape Fiolent and Cape Chauda.

Currently, Russia’s drone swarms have topped out at 472 total units at once, a record set on the night of June 1. After the new launch sites are completed, and with drone production numbers increasing, they will be able to send over 500 in a single attack, the source said.

Russia Launches Massive Aerial Assault on Ukraine

Russia launched a huge missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight, killing at least three people in Kyiv, igniting fires across the capital and partially shutting down its metro system days after Ukraine embarrassed the Kremlin with a surprise strike on its bomber fleet.

The overnight assault included 407 strike drones and 44 missiles, according to Ukraine’s air force. Sites across the country were hit, including the city of Ternopil in the far west of Ukraine. Kyiv bore the brunt of the attack. Some 200 drones and 30 missiles were shot down, according to Ukrainian officials.

In addition to three deaths, at least 49 people across the country were injured, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1930781026462159182

It’s been quite a while that Kyiv has been under such a coordinated attack. Drones, ballistics, cruise missiles: for the last two hours it has been explosion after explosion. Some parts of the city are in flames.

Despite Ukraine’s daring attacks, Russian forces advance on major city of Sumy

The unofficial Ukrainian group DeepState, which monitors the frontlines, reported that Russian forces had occupied another settlement in northern Sumy, putting them about 20 kilometers from Sumy city.

It said: “The situation in the north of the Sumy region continues to deteriorate due to constant pressure from the enemy and large numbers of infantry.”

“The threat of the enemy’s advance is that it will reach a distance of 20-25 kilometers, which will allow FPV drones to fly to the city of Sumy,” DeepState said.

It added that Ukrainian forces were unable to combat the Russians’ use of fiber-optic drones, which are capable of evading jamming.

“A separate issue is the lack of personnel to hold back the enemy, which is severely lacking,” DeepState said.

Capturing Sumy’s regional capital is probably beyond the Russians – the terrain is thickly forested. But through their attacks, the Russian military can prevent the Ukrainians from redeploying units to Donetsk and elsewhere on the front line.

ISW noted Monday that “Russian forces have not seized a Ukrainian city with a pre-war population greater than 100,000 since July 2022.”

Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine

Fourth, Russian fatalities and casualties have been extraordinary. Russia will likely hit the 1 million casualty mark in the summer of 2025—a stunning and grisly milestone. Overall, a high of 250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with over 950,000 total Russian casualties, a sign of Putin’s blatant disregard for his soldiers. To put these numbers into historical perspective, Russia has suffered roughly five times as many fatalities in Ukraine as in all Russian and Soviet wars combined between the end of World War II and the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. In addition, Russian fatalities in Ukraine (in just over three years) are 15 times larger than the Soviet Union’s decade-long war in Afghanistan and 10 times larger than Russia’s 13 years of war in Chechnya.

Ukrainian fatality rates are also high at between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, with a total of 400,000 casualties (which include both killed and wounded).

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1930899161613832674

The latest satellite images show 3 major developments: a large Russian troop buildup in Bryansk Oblast, damage from recent drone strikes in Kyiv, and unusual military activities at Taiwan’s Wangan Airport.

All three have one thing in common - they were generated by AI. Thread:
2/ While those who regularly work with satellite imagery or OSINT can quickly tell that something is "off," the quality of AI-generated satellite images is improving fast. As the number of convincing fakes grows, I've put together a few recommendations to help avoid being misled
3/ In the case of the "Kyiv attack," it took just a single prompt on a free platform to generate the image. While it appears convincing at first glance, a closer look reveals clear geometric irregularities - distorted car shapes, and irregular windows and balconies on buildings
4/ Similarly, a closer look at the "Bryansk build-up" image shows many geometric flaws. In the central part of the image, vehicle shapes often appear distorted - turning into cubes or misshapen rectangles. It’s also hard to identify what type of vehicles you’re looking at.
5/ Another good method is to compare the claimed location with actual satellite maps. A quick check on Google Maps will show that area either doesn’t exist or is heavily distorted. In the case of the Bryansk image, the location shown doesn’t match any real place in the region
6/ Imagery generated to imitate Synthetic Aperture Radar, or SAR, can be trickier. Compared to standard optical satellite images, SAR is often more complex and inherently more "distorted", especially if you aren't used to work with it. Yet, the same rules still apply
7/ Besides the problem with the helicopter blades, the lengths of helicopters in the same "class" don’t match. You can also compare them to other objects, like the "truck." A Russian Kamaz truck is about 7 to 8 meters long, while the Ka-52 helicopter should be twice long - 16 m
8/ Now the task becomes more challenging. Take a close look at these two high-quality images — one optical, the other SAR, and try to identify at least three geometric inconsistencies or suspicious anomalies in each
9/ We’re now reaching the most pivotal part of discussion - both images are original and made by Maxar and Umbra. In other words, there are no AI-made inconsistencies or anomalies here. If you spotted any or dismissed the imagery as fake, you flagged real images as false.
10/ And that’s precisely the problem — going forward, for every real image, there may be several convincing fakes. This risks eroding trust in satellite imagery altogether, making it easier to dismiss authentic visuals as AI-generated and undermining its value as evidence.
11/ To protect yourself, the best practice is to always verify the origin of the image. Companies like Maxar, Planet Labs, BlackSky, Airbus, or Umbra typically release imagery through their official channels, social media accounts, or via trusted journalists at major news outlets
12/ Organizations like ours, Frontelligence Insight, purchase imagery from resellers and publish analyses under specific licenses or conditions. In such cases, trust depends largely on the organization's track record and transparency - credibility that often takes years to build
13/ To summarize: always refer to the chain of custody. A Telegram channel sharing the image is unlikely to be the source. A visual investigator from an outlet like NYT, BBC, FT, or The WaPo with direct press access to Maxar or Planet Labs is far more reliable

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2025

Russian forces are reportedly sustaining an average of 1,140 casualties per day and suffering disproportionately high personnel casualties for marginal, grinding territorial gains. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) news agency ArmyInform reported on June 5 that an unnamed NATO official stated that Russian forces are sustaining an average casualty rate of 1,140 personnel per day, of whom nearly 975 are killed in action (KIA) – a much higher number of killed than the standard one-to-three KIA-to-wounded-in-action (WIA) ratio. The NATO official noted that Russian forces suffered approximately 160,000 casualties from January to April 2025 and that Russian losses remain high despite a slight decrease in May 2025 "due to a slowdown in the pace of hostilities." Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on May 13 that Russian forces suffered about 177,000 casualties since January 1, 2025 (an average daily casualty rate of 1,351). This daily casualty rate is lower than the record high average daily casualty rate of 1,523 that Russian forces reportedly suffered in November 2024, but Russian forces are still expending quantities of manpower that are disproportionate to their marginal territorial gains. Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa stated on June 4 that Russia seized only 0.4 percent of Ukraine's total territory in 2024 and just 0.2 percent thus far in 2025, which is largely consistent with ISW's assessment of Russian advances in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Palisa stated that Russia is suffering roughly 167 casualties per square kilometer of advance. ISW continues to assess that Russia's disproportionately large manpower and materiel losses for marginal territorial gains across the theater are unsustainable in the medium-term and unlikely to result in significant and rapid gains.

Russia plans to occupy Ukraine east of Dnipro, cut Black Sea access, Ukrainian official says

Russia aims to occupy all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro River and advance toward Odesa and Mykolaiv in a broader plan to sever Ukraine's access to the Black Sea, President Volodymyr Zelensky's Deputy Chief of Staff Pavlo Palisa said, Politico reported on June 6.

The remarks come amid continuing Russian offensives in eastern and northern Ukraine, along with escalating diplomatic efforts that have yet to yield a ceasefire.

According to Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), Moscow hopes to seize the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by this fall and establish a buffer zone along Ukraine's northern border with Russia.

The second phase of the plan envisions more ambitious territorial gains, including an advance into southern Ukraine aimed at cutting the country off from the sea.

"Unfortunately, they are not speaking about peace. They are preparing for war," Palisa said during a press briefing at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington.

 

[The Z Machine]

Trying to sever access to the Black Sea and occupying that territory sounds like a good way to lose a lot of important equipment. Wouldn't they have to take Odessa to cut of Black Sea access?

 

[fatness]

WATCH: Ukraine Destroys More Russian Missiles, This Time in Bryansk

After the now-famous Operation Spiderweb knocked out some 41 Russian warplanes and their cruise missiles, the AFU neutralizes more missiles in the western Russian border region.

www.kyivpost.com

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in collaboration with intelligence from the nation’s Security Services (SBU) launched a missile strike on a Russian missile forces unit in the cross-border region of Bryansk, in the early morning hours of Thursday, AFU sources reported. The exact extent of the damage to Russian missile stockpiles has yet to be reported. The strike comes about four days after Ukraine executed one of its most devastating attacks on Russian military hardware in the history of the more than three-year-old David-vs-Goliath conflict.

An AFU statement said only that a unit of Russia’s 26th Missile Brigade was attempting to launch a strike on a Ukrainian settlements, likely in the capital region, from the area of Klintsy in Bryansk region, the report reads. One Russian missile launcher was destroyed, and two more were most likely damaged, the report said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/avivector/status/1931276924673728552

Satellite images of Anadyr Airbase as of June 7, 00:09 UTC

The airbase housed 2 Tu-160 (Blackjack).

After Ukrainian strikes on Russian airbases, Russia has dispersed its Tu-160 strategic bombers across multiple locations.

One of the Tu-160s from Belaya Airbase arrived at Anadyr Airbase at 23:59 UTC on June 4, according to imagery, which captured the moment of landing.

The airbase is located on the Yakutia Peninsula and is 6750 km from the border with Ukraine and 660 km from the border with the United States.

Su-35 shot down: Ukraine downs fighter jet in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Air Force says

Ukraine shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet in Russia's Kursk Oblast on the morning of June 7, the Air Force reported.

Although no details of the operation were disclosed, the downing brings the total number of Russian aircraft destroyed since the start of the full-scale invasion to 414, according to Ukraine's General Staff.

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1931289916207399208

Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-35S fighter jet in the Kursk direction on Saturday.

Fighter-bomber claimed that the pilot was rescued.

'Kharkiv had a particularly terrible night', Ukraine's foreign minister says

Hundreds of drones and missiles "rained down" on Ukraine overnight, the country's foreign minister says.

"Kharkiv had a particularly terrible night," Andrii Sybiha writes in a post on social media.

There were also strikes throughout Ukraine, he says, including in the Donetsk, Dnipro, Ternopil and Odesa regions.

"People were injured and killed, and the energy infrastructure was also damaged," he adds.

Sybiha also urges for more pressure to be put on Moscow, and for more support for Ukraine, to "put an end to Russia's killing and destruction".

"Janes confirms the damage or destruction of 22 airframes of various types": https://x.com/CSBiggers/status/1930961081112940964

We have some very accurate counts of the damaged and destroyed aircraft from Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb using satellite imagery and Ukraine's released footage in a report at @JanesINTEL. A big thanks to the participation from US commercial GEOINT in helping make it possible. (H/T to @planet / @umbraspace)

Ukrainian attack damaged 10% of Russia's strategic bombers, Germany says

"According to our assessment, more than a dozen aircraft were damaged, TU-95 and TU-22 strategic bombers as well as A-50 surveillance planes," German Major General Christian Freuding said in a YouTube podcast reviewed by Reuters ahead of its publication later on Saturday.

The affected A-50s, which function similarly to NATO's AWACS planes by providing aerial situational awareness, were likely non-operational when they were hit, said the general who coordinates Berlin's military aid to Kyiv and is in close touch with the Ukrainian defence ministry.
"We believe that they can no longer be used for spare parts. This is a loss, as only a handful of these aircraft exist," he said. "As for the long-range bomber fleet, 10% of it has been damaged in the attack according to our assessment."

Despite the losses, Freuding does not see any immediate reduction of Russian strikes against Ukraine, noting that Moscow still retains 90% of its strategic bombers which can launch ballistic and cruise missiles in addition to dropping bombs.
"But there is, of course, an indirect effect as the remaining planes will need to fly more sorties, meaning they will be worn out faster, and, most importantly, there is a huge psychological impact."
Freuding said Russia had felt safe in its vast territory, which also explained why there was little protection for the aircraft.
"After this successful operation, this no longer holds true. Russia will need to ramp up the security measures."

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1931100067043434637

In late May, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service chief said Russia is currently producing ~3mn 152/122mm shells per year & getting 2.5-3mn from North Korea. He said Pyongyang has supplied 6 million shells since the war began.

Damaged Tu-95 aircraft were used by Russia to bomb Ukraine, says EDF colonel

The biggest battlefield shift, the colonel said, is Russia's steadily increasing pressure on Sumy Oblast.

"According to public sources, Russian Federation forces have gradually advanced in the border area in the direction of Sumy. The operational group in the Sumy direction primarily consists of airborne and naval infantry units deployed in Russia's Kursk Oblast, including regiments from the Pskov-based 76th Air Assault Division. So far, airborne and naval infantry units have been the main forces redeployed across the theater from one axis to another. Nevertheless, the activity on the Sumy-Kursk axis remains below that of the main offensive axis in Donetsk Oblast," he said.

"Although the main tactical effort remains focused on Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, the Russian Federation's armed forces have not achieved significant success in the region over the past week. The isolation or capture of either settlement remains unlikely in the near future. Furthermore, according to assessments, Russian forces are still incapable of achieving an operational-level breakthrough on any sector of the front, and Ukrainian forces are managing to keep the pressure under control," Kiviselg said.

 

[Chadstroma]

Powerful blow to Russia as Ukraine smashes locomotive loaded with tanks and vehicles

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine destroys 3 Russian Iskander systems in key blow to Russia, Zelenskyy says

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine’s 2nd International Legion commander reveals how a global unit fights Russia​

https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/inside-ukraine-s-2nd-international-legion-foreign-fighters-drone-warfare-and-frontline-leadership-50519098.html

 

[Chadstroma]

Anti-aircraft systems found unattended near Ukraine border in Poland​

https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/anti-aircraft-weapons-found-unattended-near-ukraine-border-in-poland-rmf24-50519508.html

Raven Air Defense System Developed for Ukraine Officially Revealed

Having previously broken cover in frontline videos from Ukraine, the UK-developed ASRAAM-based air defense system has now been shown off to the press and

theaviationist.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine Has a Clear Path To Make Russia Take Bigger War Losses​

Key Points - Following the successful "Operation Spider's Web" drone strike on Russian bomber bases, Ukraine's future military strategy will likely continue to leverage four key areas of excellence.

-These include sophisticated asymmetric warfare, using cheap, innovative technology to inflict costly damage on a larger adversary.
-It also relies on the efficient and ruthless new leadership of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) under Vasyl Malyuk, who orchestrated the raid.

-Continued advancement in AI and new technology, such as the "Sea Baby" naval drone, and aggressive counterintelligence operations, including targeted assassinations and engineering defections, will also remain central to Ukraine's fight against Russia.

What Comes After Operation Spider’s Web?​

The Operation Spider’s Web drone strike marked one of the most remarkable Ukrainian successes in the war, and has been widely praised as Kyiv’s most ingenious assault yet.

The operation, 18 months in the making, involved Ukrainian forces launching deep-strike drone attacks on four Russian air bases. The drones were smuggled thousands of miles into Russia, targeting military aviation infrastructure and destroying anywhere between 20 and 41 Russian bombers, depending on whose figures you use.

Russia then retaliated in the early hours of Friday, June 6, launching a large-scale aerial assault across Ukrainian cities. At least 400 drones and dozens of missiles were fired in one of the war’s most extensive barrages to date, and while it’s unclear whether this strike marks the end of Moscow’s retaliation, it’s also uncertain if Ukraine has new covert operations underway.

While we cannot predict Ukraine’s next move, we can see how its military is changing the rules of warfare, combining new technologies with covert operations to fight a much larger enemy.

Ukraine is making great strides in four particular areas:

Asymmetric Warfare​

Asymmetric warfare refers to the use of unconventional, low-cost, and often indirect strategies to counter a much larger and more powerful adversary. Ukraine’s recent drone strikes in Russia are a good example of this; Ukraine used domestically produced drones and clever planning to deliver results that could not have been achieved using traditional battlefield methods.

Using the element of surprise and playing the long game, Ukrainian forces smuggled drones thousands of miles into Russian territory and struck high-value targets with hundreds of millions of dollars using drones that cost as little as $600 to build.

Operational Efficiency and New Leadership​

Since Vasyl Malyuk replaced Ivan Bakanov as head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) in 2022, the agency has become more agile, efficient, focused, and effective. Malyuk’s tenure so far has been defined by this dramatically improved efficiency, having overhauled hiring and promotion strategies within the agency.

Specifically, Malyuk stopped promoting individuals based on politics and favoritism, instead giving more responsibility to younger, results-driven agents who rose through the ranks.

Malyuk is also widely credited as the architect of Operation Spider’s Web.

He’s ruthless, too: After Russian paramilitary leader Zakhar Prilepin survived a car bombing widely attributed to the SBU, Malyuk noted that “his pelvis and legs were severely injured” and that he had “lost his genitals.”

AI and New Technology​

Ukraine now produces around 100,000 drones per month domestically. It’s an impressive feat that even Russia struggled to match until Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that China had begun providing essential hardware components to outcompete Kyiv’s efforts.

In Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine deployed drones integrated with artificial intelligence, allowing them to complete missions even after losing communication with their operators. There’s no doubt that this technology will continue to be used as Ukraine (and Russia) becomes increasingly dependent on drone strikes.

Malyuk has also supported the development of new technologies, including overseeing the Sea Baby marine drone project. A multi-purpose unmanned surface vehicle (USV), the Sea Baby drone is capable of delivering 850 kilograms of explosives, reaches speeds of 90 km/h, and can travel as far as 1,000 kilometers.

Counterintelligence​

Malyuk has also overseen a dramatic expansion of Ukrainian counterintelligence operations designed to dismantle enemy spy networks. The SBU chief also oversaw the purging of Russian agents from his own agency.

In December 2024, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia’s chemical weapons division, was assassinated in Moscow by a bomb attached to a scooter - an attack attributed to the SBU.

Additionally, in August 2023, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) orchestrated the defection of Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov, who flew his Mi-8 helicopter into Ukrainian territory. The operation took six months to plan and provided Kyiv with valuable intelligence.

The Ukrainians were even able to organize the safe removal of Kuzminov’s family from Russia, into Ukraine. Sadly, in early 2024, Kuzminov was found dead in Spain - likely assassinated in retribution.


It’s impossible to know what comes after Operation Spider’s Web, obviously, but it’s worth noting that this attack wasn’t Ukraine’s first asymmetric assault. Ukraine has been deploying unconventional and covert tactics for some years now, largely thanks to Malyuk. And these tactics are unlikely to change any time soon.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Exclusive: US believes Russia response to Ukraine drone attack not over yet, expects multi-pronged strike

The United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin's threatened retaliation against Ukraine over its drone attack last weekend has not happened yet in earnest and is likely to be a significant, multi-pronged strike, U.S. officials told Reuters.
The timing of the full Russian response was unclear, with one source saying it was expected within days. A second U.S. official said the retaliation was likely to include different kinds of air capabilities, including missiles and drones.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity. They did not detail Russia's expected targets nor elaborate on intelligence matters. The first official said Moscow's attack would be "asymmetrical," meaning that its approach and targeting would not mirror Ukraine's strike last weekend against Russian warplanes.
Russia launched an intense missile and drone barrage at the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Friday and Russia's Defense Ministry said the strike on military and military-related targets was in response to what it called Ukrainian "terrorist acts" against Russia. But the U.S. officials believe the complete Russian response is yet to come.
A Western diplomatic source said that while Russia's response may have started, it would likely intensify with strikes against symbolic Ukrainian targets like government buildings, in an effort to send a clear message to Kyiv.
Another, senior, Western diplomat anticipated a further devastating assault by Moscow. "It will be huge, vicious and unrelenting," the diplomat said. "But the Ukrainians are brave people."

Putin unleashes a summer offensive to break Ukraine

Many Ukrainian cities and soldiers are bracing for a final reckoning. Kostiantynivka has been on the edge of war since 2014. Now the writing is on the wall for the eastern town, which Russia has identified as the logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region, and a gateway to open up the last strongholds there. Up to 25 guided bombs rain down every day. The remaining 8,500 civilians mostly leave the city each day by a 3pm curfew. Russian troops are tightening the noose from the south, east, and west. Dmitry Kirdayapkin, the police chief, morbidly calls the coming assault an “arc of Russian love”. He knows the Russian drill well by now: death, demolish, repeat. He saw it in 2014 as an officer in Horlivka, a town that saw fighting in an initially deniable war; and then during the siege of Mariupol in 2022. Today his officers and paramedics in Kostiantynivka work from basements and race along drone-stalked streets in caged vans that resemble massive barbecues.

Ukrainian intelligence believe that Kostiantynivka and neighbouring Pokrovsk will be the centre of Russia’s summer campaign. There are concerns about the north-eastern province of Sumy too. Russia has massed 50,000 troops there, and is advancing slowly towards the provincial capital in a mirror of Ukraine’s own cross-border operation last year. For the first time since the war began, Russia is gaining nearly as much ground there in the north as it is in the main Donbas theatre, largely because it is making light work of fortifications unsuited to drone warfare. Border towns and villages have been evacuated, with locals reporting swarms of cheap drones that often detonate mid-air. Military sources say they still expect that once Russia establishes a so-called buffer zone it will shift focus to the Donbas and Zaporizhia fronts to the south—continuing the attritional warfare that has turned the region into a pockmarked wasteland.

The front lines have not shifted in Russia’s favour in any strategically significant way for three years. But Ukrainian sources claim that captured Russian officers tell them the summer campaign is being presented as “one last push”, to break Ukraine’s morale. Mykhailo Kmetiuk, the commander of Typhoon, an elite unmanned-systems unit operating near Pokrovsk, says the Russians continue to plan such operations only because commanders do not spare the lives of their soldiers. Eight out of any ten of the new recruits are eventually killed on the battlefield, he claims, yet there is no realistic end to the waves of Russians. Russia is consistently recruiting 10,000-15,000 more men per month than Ukraine, and doing it by offering big sign-on bonuses rather than relying on the conscription that is proving so divisive in Ukraine.

A key part of Ukraine’s resilience has been its early edge in drone warfare, but that advantage is now eroding. Eduard, an officer in the 93rd brigade, says Russia has even pulled ahead in what he calls the “front-line drone marathon”. A new Russian unit called Rubikon is causing particular trouble around the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk sections, chopping up Ukrainian supply lines up to 40km to the rear. First seen near Kursk in 2024, Rubikon reports directly to the Ministry of Defence and is seen as well-resourced and tightly organised.
Rubikon strikes deep by using large “mothership” drones that deploy smaller ones controlled by fibre-optic cables, along with wireless drones that operate on hard-to-intercept frequencies. Growing co-operation with China has also become obvious to those fighting it on the frontlines, especially when it comes to reconnaissance drones, the eyes of the battlefield. China is declining to sell them to Ukraine while, says President Volodymyr Zelensky, it is facilitating drone production in Russia. It is not all one-way traffic. Ukraine recently hit a tank hidden in a hangar 42km away. But the newest generation of jamming-resistant drones often fly so high they can only be neutralised by short-range surface-to-air systems—like American-made Hawks and Soviet-era Buks—and here Ukraine has acute shortages.

'No grounds for evacuation' from Sumy, official says amid Russian offensive into region

There are currently no plans for mass civilian evacuations from the city of Sumy, regional Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on June 8, as Russian advances into Sumy Oblast have continued to gain momentum.

"There are currently no grounds for evacuation from the city of Sumy. The situation along the Sumy Oblast border is tense but under control of the Defense Forces," Hryhorov said on social media, referencing concerns on social media from residents.

Russia claims to have pushed into central Ukrainian region for first time

Subunits from the Russian military’s 90th tank division reached the border of Dnipropetrovsk with the Donetsk region, large parts of which are already under Russian occupation, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. After this, they continued into Dnipropetrovsk, the defense ministry claimed.

Russia claimed Sunday that its forces are for the first time pushing into the central Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk, an area it has been trying to reach for months, in a move that could create new problems for Kyiv’s much-stretched forces.

The extent of the advance is unclear, as are Moscow’s ambitions for the assault. CNN is unable to verify the battlefield reports, and Ukraine has denied the Russian advance.

Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia forces, which is in command of the area Moscow alleged it broke through, told CNN that “the Russians are constantly spreading false information that they have entered the Dnipropetrovsk region from the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, but (in neither place) is this information true.”

 

[Chadstroma]

Chances of Russian successful breakthrough low – French General Richoux

Over the years of war, Ukrainians have become experts in deep defense combat, making any potential Russian offensive unlikely to succeed. At the same time, neither side currently has the capacity to execute a major breakthrough. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

With the required joke of the French... if anyone would know about breakthroughs and surrendering, it is the French.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian missiles target western Ukraine in latest mass attack

Russia launched another large-scale attack against Ukraine overnight on June 9, assailing cities across the country with drones and missiles.

At least one person was reported injured in Rivne, a city far from the front lines in northwestern Ukraine.

The mass strike comes shortly after Russia on June 6 launched 452 drones and 45 missiles at Ukraine in a single night — one of the largest aerial attacks in the full-scale war. The Kremlin claimed the bombardment was retaliation for Kyiv's Operation Spiderweb drone strike on Russian strategic aircraft.

Ukraine's Air Force issued aerial alerts throughout the night on June 8-9, warning multiple regions of the threat of ballistic missiles and Shahed-type attack drones.

Ukraine says it hit Russian MiG-31, Su-30/34 fighter jets following attack on airfield

A Ukrainian strike allegedly damaged two Russian military aircraft — a MiG-31 and either a Su-30 or Su-34 fighter jet — at an airfield used to launch Kinzhal missile attacks, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on May 9.

The extent of the damage is still being assessed, the military said.

Ukraine's overnight strike targeted the Savasleyka airfield in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, which the Kremlin uses to launch MiG-31K jets armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, according to the General Staff.

The operation was conducted by Ukrainian Special Operations Forces in coordination with other units.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8, 2025

Kremlin officials and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on June 8 that Russian forces reached the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are conducting offensive operations into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — an oblast that Russia has not illegally declared as annexed. The Russian MoD claimed on June 8 that elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division (41st Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]) reached the western border of Donetsk Oblast and are continuing to develop an offensive in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on June 8 that Russian forces “began an offensive” in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and threatened that those who do not acknowledge current "realities of war" on the battlefield during negotiations will "receive new realities on the ground." Kremlin officials have repeatedly claimed that any negotiations to end the war must consider the "realities on the ground" (a reference to the current frontline in Ukraine) to demand that Ukraine concede to Russia's demands under threat of further Russian demands. A Russian milblogger claimed on June 8 that Russian forces reached the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border northwest of Horikhove (southeast of Novopavlivka) and advanced southeast of Muravka (northeast of Novopavlivka), west of Kotlyarivka (east of Novopavlivka), and west and southwest of Bohdanivka (southeast of Novopavlivka). ISW has not observed geolocated evidence of these claimed advances near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border as of this writing. ISW forecasted in November 2024 that the Russian military command could advance to the southeasternmost part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) that support Ukrainian positions in Donetsk Oblast and to envelop these Ukrainian positions in support of Russia's wider campaign to seize all of Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Viktor Trehubov stated on June 8 that fighting continued in the Novopavlivka direction but only in Donetsk Oblast. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area stated that Russian forces did not cross the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that Ukrainian General Staff Representative Andriy Kovalev stated that claims that Russian forces crossed the border are "Russian disinformation" and not true. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data shows satellite-detected heat and infrared anomalies along the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, and satellite imagery collected on June 7 and 8 shows the appearance of new artillery craters near the border in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. FIRMS data and artillery craters near the border indicate artillery missions in the area and are not inconsistent with official Ukrainian statements about continued fighting in Donetsk Oblast east of the border. ISW assesses that current Russian tactical activity in the vicinity of southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is a continuation of ongoing Russian offensive efforts in southwestern Donetsk Oblast — not the beginning of a new major offensive operation to seize operationally significant territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. ISW will continue to assess the situation in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and update its assessment.

Russian officials have repeatedly signaled that the Kremlin has wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine, including in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Artem Zhoga, the former commander of the 80th ”Sparta” Spetsnaz Battalion (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) and current presidential representative to the Ural Federal Okrug, claimed on June 8 that the 90th Tank Division is "closing the strategic gates to the Dnipro [River]." Zhoga's reference to the Dnipro River is consistent with other Russian officials' calls for Russia to seize territory near the river in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian officials have called for Russia to control the areas of the Dnipro River that pass through Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and routinely invoke the Kremlin's concept of "Novorossiya," which Russian officials have defined as all of eastern and southern Ukraine. ISW observed reported in May 2025 that Russia was setting conditions to establish permanent control over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), suggesting that Russia may plan to occupy and annex Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa also stated on June 5 Russia intends to occupy the entirety of Ukraine on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River, including eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, by the end of 2026.

Putin approves big revamp of Russia's navy, Kremlin aide says

"It is impossible to carry out such work without a long—term vision of the scenarios for the development of the situation in the oceans, the evolution of challenges and threats, and, of course, without defining the goals and objectives facing the Russian Navy," Patrushev said.
Patrushev gave no further details about the strategy, though Russia has ramped up spending on defence and security to Cold War levels as a percentage of gross domestic product.

 

[fatness]

Trump administration redirects 20,000 anti-drone missiles meant for Ukraine, Zelensky confirms

"We counted on this project — 20,000 missiles. Anti-Shahed missiles. It was not expensive, but it's a special technology," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

kyivindependent.com

President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration diverted 20,000 anti-drone missiles originally intended for Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, in an interview with ABC News published on June 8. Zelensky said Ukraine had counted on the missiles to help counter relentless Russian drone attacks, which include swarms of Iranian-designed Shahed-type drones. On June 1, Russia launched a record 472 drones in a single night. "We have big problems with Shaheds… we will find all the tools to destroy them," Zelensky said. "We counted on this project — 20,000 missiles. Anti-Shahed missiles. It was not expensive, but it's a special technology." Zelensky said the plan had been agreed upon with then-U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and was launched under President Joe Biden's administration. The Wall Street Journal reported on June 4 that the Trump administration had redirected the munitions, which include special fuzes used in advanced rocket systems to intercept drones, toward U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine finds NVIDIA, Sony parts in Russian AI-powered drone

Ukrainian military intelligence has revealed that Russia's new V2U kamikaze drone, which features artificial intelligence-based targeting, is heavily reliant on foreign components, primarily of Chinese origin. According to a report published by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR)...

defence-blog.com

 

[fatness]

I cannot vouch for this bluesky poster or these videos. Supposedly it is in Cheboksary, Russia, which is way east of Moscow.

https://bsky.app/profile/natalkakyiv.bsky.social/post/3lr5egx44ls2l

https://bsky.app/profile/natalkakyiv.bsky.social/post/3lr5did4onc2l

 

[Chadstroma]

I cannot vouch for this bluesky poster or these videos. Supposedly it is in Cheboksary, Russia, which is way west of Moscow.

https://bsky.app/profile/natalkakyiv.bsky.social/post/3lr5egx44ls2l

https://bsky.app/profile/natalkakyiv.bsky.social/post/3lr5did4onc2l

Russia on fire. Drone attack halts production of missile parts at Cheboksary defense plant​

https://ukranews.com/en/news/1086709-russia-on-fire-drone-attack-halts-production-of-missile-parts-at-cheboksary-defense-plant

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Israel denies ambassador’s claim of Patriot missile transfer to Ukraine

The Foreign Ministry on Tuesday denied comments made by Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, who claimed that Israel had delivered Patriot missile systems to Kyiv. "Israel has not transferred such systems to Ukraine," the ministry said in response to a query from Ynet.

According to available information, Russia demanded clarification from Israel following the report, prompting the official denial.

Brodsky made the claim in an interview with Ukrainian blogger Marichka Dovbenko, saying the Patriot air defense systems sent to Ukraine had originally come from the United States in the early 1990s. His comments appeared to mark the first public Israeli acknowledgment of direct military aid to Ukraine.

"These are Israeli systems that were in IDF service in the early 1990s. We agreed to transfer them to Ukraine," Brodsky said. "Unfortunately, there hasn’t been much talk about it. But when people say Israel didn’t provide military aid — that’s simply not true."

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1932612270397260068

In mid-May the commander of a Ukrainian mobile air defense team told Kyiv Independent that Geran-2s (Russian version of Shahed-136) comprise roughly half the long-range one-way attack drones Russia has been firing, with the other half being decoy drones. That ratio roughly matched the 60-40 figure below.

Interestingly, the commander, Oleksiy, also said his unit has encountered jet-powered Gerans, which typically travel 380-400 km/h (yet to be documented en mass in open source, to my knowledge), up from 200 km/h for the standard version.

As noted in the thread above, Gerans have also been flying higher to avoid the machine guns operated by Ukrainian mobile air defense teams. Oleksiy said they have new coating to enable flight at higher altitudes. He also says they seem to have been programmed to maneuver when hit with a spotlight.

Oleksiy said a minority of the Gerans “are actively guided, that is, they are being steered online. They film our positions, see us, and record us, so later they try to fly around us.” Some of the Gerans reportedly carry Starlink terminals.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1932551695520969074

A UAS platoon commander from Ukraine's 93rd Brigade told Ukrainska Pravda that Russia "has significantly increased both the quantity and quality of its UAVs" and is doing a better job than Ukraine in hunting for enemy UAS crews. He calls for Ukrainian brigades to create specialized recon-strike UAS crews for this purpose.

Ukrainska Pravda reports that some UKR brigades frequently manage to identify Russian UAS launch points using ELINT but are unable to strike most of them because they're at depths hard to reach for Ukrainian drone crews (e.g. 20 km). Also, Russian UAS pilots are often located away from the launch points.

https://x.com/sambendett/status/1932563128576884844

According to Russian state media, the country’s unmanned systems forces may get their own military academy, to open in 2027.

Russia steps up use of new military technologies against Ukraine, including AI

Bursts of automatic gunfire rang out some hundred meters away. The soldiers chatting on the side of the road connecting Sloviansk and Dobropillia in eastern Ukraine at first paid no attention. But, when a buzzing sound filled the air, someone shouted: "Drone!" A confused voice asked, "Ours or the enemy's?" Soldiers at the nearby Ukrainian military checkpoint had already answered the question with their weapons. The troops ran to take cover under the trees and bushes below. The loitering munition continued its course in the sky, then vanished from sight.
No one was sure what exactly had just flown over them. The nearest Russian positions were 20 kilometers away, a distance considered relatively safe and out of reach for most enemy attack drones.
"The situation is deteriorating rapidly," said Maxime, an officer with the 14th assault brigade, Tchervona Kalyna ("Red Viburnum"), who was not authorized to give his last name. "That drone had wings. It was either a Molniya or a Matka." The officer explained that the latter is a "mother drone," which carries four small loitering munitions, or kamikaze drones. This mother drone doubles the range of Russian attack drones. It is also used for aerial reconnaissance and for guiding its "children" to their targets. "We saw the first Matka 10 months ago. Since then, it's been improved and has spread everywhere. The road to Dobropillia is heavily targeted now. There are destroyed vehicles everywhere, including civilian ones. If the 'children' don't find a high-value target [armored vehicles or artillery], they start to strike anything that's alive."

"More than half our losses happen when we're moving from one place to another," said Anatole, known as "Red Fox," a 35-year-old training sergeant with the brigade. "Our guys have to walk several kilometers, carrying supplies and ammunition. That's when they're the most vulnerable, especially when they leave their fortifications, which are very solid. The biggest danger used to be artillery, but it was much less accurate than drones, so you just had to throw yourself to the ground. With drones, it doesn't work like that anymore." As a result, rotations have been kept to a minimum. Some soldiers can remain "stuck in their position for two weeks, or even up to 40 days," Anatole lamented, as he smoothed his mustache.

On fiber optics:

"It's a very effective weapon. We use them too, but we're far behind the Russians in terms of quantity," confirmed Oleksandr, known as "Saha," commander of a drone squadron in the 23rd mechanized brigade. Deployed in Pokrovsk in the Zaporizhzhia region, this tall and tattooed man with dark eyes believes, however, that "this weapon has no future." He explained that the hair-thin fiber-optic cables, which connect them to their pilot, have a major flaw. "They're very visible in sunny weather and make it easy to trace them back to the pilots' station, which then becomes a priority target." Some Ukrainian units have set up networks of sound sensors to detect the drones when they fly very low. The old-fashioned shotgun is proving to be the most effective weapon for shooting down a drone in flight.

"We Ukrainians are creative and responsive, but our problem is that we can't produce anything in large quantities quickly. The Russians, on the other hand, have had their economy geared toward war for a long time. When they hone an effective new weapon, they immediately produce it in industrial quantities," sighed Yevgeny, nicknamed "Gypsy," commander of a drone platoon in the 59th assault brigade.
The tall, bearded 24-year-old said his army lacked everything: munitions, drones, electronic jammers. "The Russians are far ahead in jamming. We lose one out of five drones because of that." This equipment shortage was especially problematic for the 59th brigade, which is part of a brand-new branch of the Ukrainian military called the Unmanned Systems Forces. "We automate our forces as much as possible to save as many soldiers' lives as we can," summed up "Gypsy."

Created in 2024 under the direct supervision of the Russian defense minister, Rubicon includes a research and development center for military robotic systems, a training center and combat units. This structure allows for a very short chain between researchers and fighters. According to the expert, at least 30 Rubicon units are deployed on the frontlines. Some are deployed in the Sumy theater (northeastern Ukraine), while others are fighting in the Donetsk region, striking Ukrainian logistics deep inside the country, up to 30 kilometers away. Their tactic, according to Beskrestnov, is "to fly several drones at once toward a single target."

The widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI) for autonomous drone guidance is also on the horizon. A recent Russian attack bore the unmistakable mark of AI, according to Beskrestnov. On May 22, a swarm of seven drones struck the town of Velykyi Burluk in the Kharkiv region. Eyewitnesses to the attack (in which no one was killed) said the drones formed a circle in the sky before simultaneously diving toward their target: a post office with several vehicles parked out front. "AI made the decision to attack," Beskrestnov insisted, citing the drones' perfect coordination. According to him, about 50 such attacks happen every day on the front. The electric-motor winged Molniya-type drones are capable of following roads and railways, identifying targets and deciding when to attack. Their strikes target military logistics up to 50 kilometers behind the front line.
On the Ukrainian side, Le Monde interviewed several drone operators linked to AI research labs who said that AI-powered autonomous guidance was not yet ready for combat. At best, it "could hit a lone armored vehicle in the middle of a field."

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukrainian drones strike targets in Russia, including gunpowder plant, General Staff says

The Tambov Gunpowder Plant, one of Russia's main manufacturers of gunpowder and explosives for small arms, artillery, and rocket systems, reportedly caught fire following the drone strike.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian drones struck multiple military targets in Russia, including the Tambov Gunpowder Plant, overnight on June 11, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported.

The plant, one of Russia's main manufacturers of gunpowder and explosives for small arms, artillery, and rocket systems, caught fire following the drone strike, according to the General Staff.

Local residents reported hearing explosions and shared videos showing a large blaze near the facility, according to the Russian independent media outlet Astra.

The General Staff described the attack as part of a broader operation to degrade Russia's ability to produce explosive materials and ammunition used in the full-scale war against Ukraine.

The Tambov facility has been targeted several times since November 2023, and U.S. sanctions were imposed on it that same year. Tambov Oblast, located southeast of Moscow, lies hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine and shares no direct border with it.

Russian state news agency TASS confirmed a drone attack but did not mention the strike on the powder plant. Tambov Oblast Governor Maxim Egorov said that emergency services had extinguished the fire and that there were no casualties, though he did not specify the location of the fire.

In addition to the strike on Tambov, Ukrainian drones hit the ammunition depot of Russia's 106th Airborne Division in Kursk Oblast and the depot at Buturlinovka airfield in Voronezh Oblast, the General Staff said.

The extent of the damage is still being assessed, the General Staff said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Forces Expand Fighting to a New Region of Eastern Ukraine

Pressing ahead with a new summer offensive, Russian forces have entered the Dnipropetrovsk region of eastern Ukraine for the first time in three years of war — signaling their capacity to keep expanding the fight as cease-fire talks show little signs of progress.
Advancing west from the Donetsk region, the main theater of the ground war today, small squads of Russian soldiers began crossing into neighboring Dnipropetrovsk last weekend, according to three Ukrainian officers fighting in the area. A battlefield map by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, based on verified combat footage, now shows that Russian forces have secured a tiny foothold in the area.
Russia is unlikely to try to seize the new region, which it has signaled in the past that it has no intentions of doing. Instead, military analysts and Ukrainian soldiers view the push as both symbolic — aimed at denting Ukrainian morale by breaching a new region — and strategic, designed to bolster its defenses in neighboring areas where it has already dug in.
Still, both goals are likely to further widen the battlefield in a war now grinding through its fourth year. An officer with the call sign “Barbarossa” from Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade, which is currently fighting off Russian assaults into Dnipropetrovsk, said that Russia had accumulated “a lot of forces” in the area, and that he expected them to push deeper into the region.

The Ukrainian officers said Russian forces had advanced, at most, along a few tree lines into Dnipropetrovsk and had yet to capture any settlement. Whether they can secure their advance, capitalize on the breach and push deeper into the region remains to be seen.

In Ukraine, the Dnipropetrovsk region faces threats of a Russian breakthrough toward Pokrovsk

If Russian forces were to enter Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, it would not alter the military balance, but it would nonetheless mark a serious symbolic setback for Kyiv. The industrial region, considered a haven for many internally displaced people, has been regularly bombed since the start of the invasion but has never seen fighting on its own soil. It would become the seventh region to register a Russian military presence, joining Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Sumy, as the Kremlin appears to have launched a summer offensive in recent weeks aiming to break the Ukrainian Army's resistance.

Moscow's persistent statements, aimed at spreading defeatism among the Ukrainian population, have so far been refuted by several representatives of Kyiv's military authorities. The analysis site DeepState, which is closely linked to the Army, also disputed the breakthrough, but did note several areas where Russian forces appeared to be less than two kilometers from the border.

From Anna's café in Mejove, Captain Yurii Melnyk, whose nom de guerre is "Bird," calmly insisted that Russian troops had not yet entered the region. Nevertheless, Melnyk, who also commands a drone battalion in the 59th Brigade deployed in the area for several months, said he has observed an escalation in attacks recently, with an increase in Russian infantry assaults, notably using two-wheeled vehicles.

Like other analysts, he has argued that a Russian breakthrough would not change the military dynamic. "The terrain is the same as in the Donetsk region," he said. In his view, the Russian advance in the zone closest to Mejove, about 15 kilometers away, was mainly part of a wider Kremlin effort to seize the strategic city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region by flanking it. "Entering Dnipropetrovsk is only a political symbol," he said. "Tactically, it won't change anything."

Still, while Melnyk said the Ukrainian Army was currently holding the region's borders, he also acknowledged that a breakthrough seemed inevitable unless his forces received additional reinforcements. The technological developments that have brought an omnipresence of drones in the sky make any movement at the front extremely dangerous and have forced some of his men to remain in position for weeks before being able to rotate out.
"Some stay in position for eight to 10 days, but those closest to the front line sometimes have to hold for up to 20 days," said Bird, noting that his soldiers are resupplied with water, food and sometimes ammunition − all delivered by drone.
This lack of rotations, made worse by the overall shortage of soldiers across the Army, has had a severe impact on troops' fatigue. Like other commanders, Melnyk has faced numerous cases of soldiers abandoning their posts, often after going on leave and then refusing to return. "It's become a way to extend their vacations," he said. "They tell me they'll come back in two months. What can I say to them? They're exhausted," he sighed.

Ukrainian military denies NYT claims about Russian presence in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

There is no confirmed information that Russian troops have entered Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, spokesperson Victor Tregubov of the Khortytsia group of forces told Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne on June 13, refuting earlier claims published by the New York Times (NYT).

The NYT cited Ukrainian military sources claiming that Russian troops crossed the administrative boundary into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for the first time since the war began.

The reporting also referenced a map by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicating that Russian forces advancing in the region had allegedly secured a foothold.

Tregubov said the situation remains unchanged as of June 13. He indicated that no information suggests Russian forces have crossed the administrative border, but he noted that updated intelligence may be available later in the day.

Andrii Zadubiny, press officer of the Khortytsia forces, also rejected the claims.

"No enemy incursion into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast has been recorded. We refute this information," he told Suspilne. He suggested that ISW might be relying on Russian sources.

Germany to supply new Iris-T air defense systems to Ukraine, rules out Taurus missiles

Germany will deliver new IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine under a three-year supply plan, President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a joint press conference with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who added Berlin has no plans to provide Taurus long-range missiles.

The announcement comes amid escalating Russian aerial assaults, including a June 10 missile and drone strike on Kyiv, one of the largest since the start of the full-scale invasion.

"We are grateful for the supply of IRIS-T air defense systems," Zelensky said on June 12. "We understand that deliveries are currently being planned... for the next three years. This is very important assistance."

The IRIS-T is a German-made medium-range surface-to-air missile system capable of intercepting drones, aircraft, and cruise missiles.

Pistorius confirmed the delivery timeline but firmly ruled out the possibility of sending Taurus missiles — weapons Kyiv has repeatedly requested to strike deep into Russian territory.

"You asked me whether we are considering this, and my answer is no," Pistorius said.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia recruits homeless and pensioners to fill army gaps after heavy losses in Ukraine war​

In Saransk, the capital of the Republic of Mordovia, Russia, authorities have launched a campaign to recruit homeless people, those with addictions, and pensioners for the war against Ukraine. The Kremlin aims to fill gaps caused by catastrophic losses on the front, RBC-Ukraine sources in the security services said.

What is known about the mobilization of marginalized groups in Russia

Between June 10 and 14, police officers and military enlistment offices conducted raids at so-called "watering holes," dormitories, abandoned buildings, and other places where socially marginalized people gather ("dens").

People showing even minimal interest are immediately offered contracts to join the army.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, potential recruits face psychological pressure and promises of benefits: new equipment, high salaries, privileges, "respect from women," and supplies of alcohol and tobacco.

Contract signing "under the influence"

In some cases, alcohol, cigarettes, and other perks are given right before signing documents.

After that, these "volunteers" are sent to training centers for a few days. From there, they go to the front with almost no preparation.

Human shields used to locate Ukrainian positions

The Kremlin uses such recruits as "one-time infantry." They send them toward Ukrainian Armed Forces positions to provoke fire and reveal Ukrainian troop locations for subsequent shelling.

This happens amid regular public claims by Russian leadership about a supposed mass influx of "volunteers." They say 50,000 to 60,000 people join the service every month.

In reality, the Kremlin relies on forced and manipulative mobilization of the most socially vulnerable groups.

This practice could expand to other Russian regions due to a severe shortage of personnel after heavy losses at the front.

Earlier, The Telegraph published a report on how the Kremlin lures Africans with fake job offers to fight against Ukraine. For example, Russians promise well-paid jobs, such as working at a shampoo factory, then force recruits to sign army contracts.

According to Russian media, the Kremlin has recruited over 400,000 people into its army in 2024.

 

[Chadstroma]

Crappiest thing about Israel-Iran is it will increase oil prices and give Russia a lifeline.

 

[fatness]

Europe’s frontier countries ready their hospitals for war

From stockpiling trauma kits for mass casualties to kitting out medics with body armor, wartime health planning is no longer hypothetical on NATO’s eastern flank.

www.politico.eu

Lithuania is no outlier: All NATO’s eastern flank countries are revisiting crisis response protocols for health-care facilities, organizing training exercises, investing in ballistic helmets and vests, and shifting operating theaters underground. Since the conflict in Ukraine has shattered the illusion that Europe is safe from war.

“It’s not a question of if [Russia] will attack,” said Ragnar Vaiknemets, deputy director general of the Estonian Health Board, which oversees preparedness for crises from pandemics to war. “It’s a question about when.”

 

[BassNBrew]

Crappiest thing about Israel-Iran is it will increase oil prices and give Russia a lifeline.

As I said before, Russia is winning and will win.

 

[Chadstroma]

Crappiest thing about Israel-Iran is it will increase oil prices and give Russia a lifeline.

As I said before, Russia is winning and will win.

I don't think you can say winning now.... I am not even sure what winning is right for an endgame at this point for Russia but Russian advances have slowed significantly and they are running out of pretty much everything except whomever they rope in for service to run into bullets. It is widely believed that their ability for any major offenses is currently either extremely limited or exhausted. Localized offenses will continue but nothing that will have any hope for a breakthrough. Ukraine's defenses are not going to buckle and Russia is losing it's ability to do any ground offenses. Ukraine is also showing great capacity to hit Russia hard while Russia is limited to missile and drone strikes as it's only real offensive capability.

 

[BassNBrew]

Crappiest thing about Israel-Iran is it will increase oil prices and give Russia a lifeline.

As I said before, Russia is winning and will win.

I don't think you can say winning now.... I am not even sure what winning is right for an endgame at this point for Russia but Russian advances have slowed significantly and they are running out of pretty much everything except whomever they rope in for service to run into bullets. It is widely believed that their ability for any major offenses is currently either extremely limited or exhausted. Localized offenses will continue but nothing that will have any hope for a breakthrough. Ukraine's defenses are not going to buckle and Russia is losing it's ability to do any ground offenses. Ukraine is also showing great capacity to hit Russia hard while Russia is limited to missile and drone strikes as it's only real offensive capability.

There are Russian boots in Ukraine but no Ukraine boots in Russia. Russia has destroyed far more stuff than Ukraine has. Russia is getting troops from North Korea and an indefinite life line from China. Yeah it's costly and stupid on their part, but they are winning.

 

[Chadstroma]

Crappiest thing about Israel-Iran is it will increase oil prices and give Russia a lifeline.

As I said before, Russia is winning and will win.

I don't think you can say winning now.... I am not even sure what winning is right for an endgame at this point for Russia but Russian advances have slowed significantly and they are running out of pretty much everything except whomever they rope in for service to run into bullets. It is widely believed that their ability for any major offenses is currently either extremely limited or exhausted. Localized offenses will continue but nothing that will have any hope for a breakthrough. Ukraine's defenses are not going to buckle and Russia is losing it's ability to do any ground offenses. Ukraine is also showing great capacity to hit Russia hard while Russia is limited to missile and drone strikes as it's only real offensive capability.

There are Russian boots in Ukraine but no Ukraine boots in Russia. Russia has destroyed far more stuff than Ukraine has. Russia is getting troops from North Korea and an indefinite life line from China. Yeah it's costly and stupid on their part, but they are winning.

The reality of what we have seen with the Russian offensive grinding down to a hault says otherwise. This is when they should be making the most ground, not slowing to a stop.

 

[TennesseeJed]

but they are winning.

How are you defining "winning"

I'd say there is a whole lot of losing going on, and no winning.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

When your strategy is a battle of attrition, every day that goes by and the war still on is a win.

 

[Chaos34]

Winning for Putin based on his words and those of many at the highest level of Russian government and military is complete control of Ukraine, Zelensky out, a puppet installed and annexation. Losing is anything short of that. Winning for Ukraine is getting all their land back including Crimea with Russia disarmed enough to be unable to do this again. It's been said there are no winners in war. This one might be a better example than most.

 

[TennesseeJed]

When your strategy is a battle of attrition, every day that goes by and the war still on is a win.

Do you think that was, or is, Putin's strategy?

I'll concede that may be all he has left to hold onto. But, I suspect his strategy was a quick blitzkrieg-like victory 3 years ago.

The longer this goes on, the more impotent Russia and her army look.

Crimea was a very important victory for Russia - they needed the warm water port for both their navy, and their economy. But, they pretty clearly bit off more than they can chew trying for more territory - particularly since there is not strategic advantage to holding that territory.

 

[Chadstroma]

When your strategy is a battle of attrition, every day that goes by and the war still on is a win.

Do you think that was, or is, Putin's strategy?

I'll concede that may be all he has left to hold onto. But, I suspect his strategy was a quick blitzkrieg-like victory 3 years ago.

The longer this goes on, the more impotent Russia and her army look.

Crimea was a very important victory for Russia - they needed the warm water port for both their navy, and their economy. But, they pretty clearly bit off more than they can chew trying for more territory - particularly since there is not strategic advantage to holding that territory.

Putin thought this would be over in 3 days.

Now, all he is hoping for is to outlast Ukraine.... or actually, more accurately, outlast NATO countries will to support and supply Ukraine. There are many points of interest that suggest that Russia is running out of most everything it needs to fight. Including it's economy- which my point earlier of oil prices rising, helps keep it going but the longer this war goes on the more the Russian economy is hurting. The Russians have made a lot of choices to keep their current economy going in order to fuel the war but will cost them later economically.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

When your strategy is a battle of attrition, every day that goes by and the war still on is a win.

Do you think that was, or is, Putin's strategy?

I'll concede that may be all he has left to hold onto. But, I suspect his strategy was a quick blitzkrieg-like victory 3 years ago.

The longer this goes on, the more impotent Russia and her army look.

Crimea was a very important victory for Russia - they needed the warm water port for both their navy, and their economy. But, they pretty clearly bit off more than they can chew trying for more territory - particularly since there is not strategic advantage to holding that territory.

I think he severely underestimated Ukraine and his approach shifted very quickly to this once he saw what he was in for.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1934717478623494557

@Deepstate_UA said it visited the second of three fortified defensive lines being built in the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions. It noted that Ukraine is constructing anti-vehicle obstacles (dragon's teeth, ditches, egoza wire, minefields, etc.) as well as fortified positions. It says positions are being built underground and in a manner that protects against FPV drones, and the engineers say they have sufficient resources.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1934705778104946787

A Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman said Russia aims to produce 30,000 Geran & Garpiya one-way attack drones in 2025, up from 15,000 in 2024, plus another 30,000 decoy drones.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1934706343744503961

A Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman said Russia aims to produce 2 million FPV drones in 2025.

Russia Is Churning Out Attack Drones. Ukraine Is Feeling the Impact.

Russia’s mass production of attack drones is raining fear across Ukrainian cities.

Moscow sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year, straining the country’s air defenses and undermining President Trump’s attempts to secure a peace deal. A statistical analysis by the Center for Information Resilience, a U.K.-based open-source investigations organization, found that Russia, after cranking up production, has launched more than 20,000 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far.

“The massive increase in total drone launches is almost trying to saturate Ukrainian air defenses,” said Kyle Glen, an investigator with CIR. “And that means a higher chance of them actually hitting the target.”

An early turning point came in November 2022, when Russia signed an agreement with Iran to purchase and produce its Shahed attack drones locally. Russia likely realized that relying on production in Iran would create a bottleneck, so it decided to buy the technology from Tehran and make the weapons itself, said Omar Al-Ghusbi, a senior analyst with C4ADS, a nonprofit organization researching illicit networks worldwide.

“It provides a pretty cheap, mass-produced platform that has extremely long range,” he said. “The Iranians had a weapon system that fit perfectly for what the Russians needed.”

In a recent report on the Shahed drone and its variations, C4ADS estimates Russia paid $1.75 billion for the Shahed technology, equipment, source code and 6,000 drones. This way, Russia was able to manage its own supply chain and expand the scale and frequency of its attacks.

Russia, meanwhile, launches its aerial attacks from several directions, including the occupied Crimean Peninsula. It frequently programs drones to stagger their arrival at the target, creating a swarming effect.

Russian commanders often choose only a few cities per night to attack—another tactic to break through Ukraine’s defense. When the drones arrive one after another, the night sky fills with the sound of a mosquito-like buzzing, gaining in intensity as the drones speed up and nosedive toward their targets at a 45-degree angle.

Russia is shifting tactics again, assaulting Ukrainian cities with swarms of killer drones

Yuriy Chumak spends many of his nights perched on Kyiv’s rooftops, machine gun in hand. A Supreme Court judge by day, he is part of a volunteer drone-hunting unit by night. He said the skies have gotten significantly busier in recent weeks.

“There are many more drones. This is an objective fact. And, of course, the more there are, the harder it is to work against them,” Chumak told CNN.

He said after Moscow started flying drones at higher altitudes, it has become much harder, if not impossible, for his unit to destroy them.

Previously, Russian forces would fly the drones low, for example along a riverbed, to avoid being detected by Ukraine’s air defenses for as long as possible.

“The time to respond was very short because we only detected it when it was (close),” he said.

These days, he said, Russian drones are flying two to five kilometers (1 to 3 miles) above the ground.

“We can see them all. Radars can track them. But it has become impossible to shoot them down with machine guns,” Chumak said, adding that Ukraine now has to use missiles to thwart them.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

From buffer zone to new front: Russia pushes deeper into Sumy Oblast

Russia’s push in Sumy Oblast comes amid a broader spring-summer offensive that has also seen significant gains in Donetsk Oblast, especially on either flank of the embattled city of Pokrovsk.

With the Ukrainian army significantly overstretched along hundreds of kilometers of front line and suffering from chronic manpower shortages, especially in the infantry, Russia’s pressure on Sumy Oblast creates more dilemmas.

“The Russians are most likely trying to create as many issues for the Ukrainians as possible in several directions simultaneously,” Kastehelmi said.

“They aim to create a cascading situation where the Ukrainians need to answer to a crisis in a certain sector by throwing in units from another place, resulting in units not being able to do proper rotations.”

Speaking to the Kyiv Independent, Volodymyr Martyniak, a company commander in the 22nd Special Purpose Battalion of Ukraine’s 1st Presidential Brigade, said that Russia’s main advantage in Sumy Oblast remained their ability to send wave after wave of lightly-mounted infantry at the Ukrainian defense.

“They are being organized into ultra-minimal teams, of just a couple of people, using the bare minimum of equipment,” he said,” things like quad bikes, other motorized vehicles, motorcycles to move quickly through rough terrain.”

According to Martyniak, Russian forces in the area use a mix of expendable, cannon-fodder style infantry troops in the first waves of an attack, which are then followed by more experienced soldiers, demonstrating tactics refined since the Battle of Bakhmut over two years ago.

“At first, soldiers go in simply to move forward and dig in,” he described.

“Then, once enough of them have gathered in a certain area, enough to justify bringing in something more serious, a more advanced, better-trained, and correspondingly more professional unit follows.”

One Ukrainian combat medic, who requested to remain anonymous for security reasons, said that compared to areas in Donetsk Oblast where fortifications had been built in advance even if not ideally, nothing of the like could be seen in Sumy Oblast.

Although defending Ukrainian territory was easier than holding positions across the border because of better logistics routes, he said, there were still little to no prepared lines of defense waiting for them after the withdrawal.
Ultimately, the strength of any line of defense is dependent not only on the fortifications themselves, but on the ability of the defending side to man them with enough combat effective infantry.

Excess losses among Ukrainian units holding Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian commanders had reported politically-motivated orders to hold Russian territory despite logistics routes being controlled by Russian drones, have made it easier for Russian forces to continue their advance across the border.

In these conditions, Martyniak — whose battalion fought inside Kursk Oblast before crossing the border — says the defense of territory inside Ukraine started straight after the withdrawal from Sudzha in March.

According to the commander, Ukraine’s main problem in defense consistently remains the lack of manpower in the infantry.

Russia’s offensive pushes closer to northern city of Sumy, opens new front

According to Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the region, Russian forces are drawing closer to the key logistical town of Yunakivka, about 15 miles from Sumy, where fighting is raging.
“The situation is very tense,” said Kaste, a platoon commander fighting in the area who spoke on the condition that he be identified only by his call sign, in line with Ukrainian military protocols. “Friends of mine who are holding that line say the enemy sometimes throws wave after wave of suicidal assaults, likely just to wear down our defenses.”

Analysts and Ukrainian officials insist that the fighting near Dnipropetrovsk and in the Sumy region is a diversionary tactic.
“From my perspective, the Sumy direction is an auxiliary axis for the Russians,” said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan defense consultancy. “Their center of gravity remains in the Donbas, while operations near Sumy are intended to force Ukraine to stretch its already limited resources.” The eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk are often collectively described as Donbas.
Muzyka said he did not believe that Russian forces intended to take the city of Sumy.
“Since the initial phase of the war, Russian forces have consistently struggled to capture major population centers,” he said. “It is more likely that their goal is … to apply pressure on Ukrainian forces and civilians by conducting harassing attacks on the city, inflicting destruction and psychological strain.”
However, even if Ukrainian forces hold on to Sumy, the result could be a hollowed-out, destroyed city and a possible humanitarian crisis.
“They can make life hell for locals and destroy the economy,” said a European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “They can create misery of large proportions.”
“They are masters at creating misery,” he said. “They don’t know how to create anything else.”

 

[FarFromHome]

When your strategy is a battle of attrition, every day that goes by and the war still on is a win.

Do you think that was, or is, Putin's strategy?

I'll concede that may be all he has left to hold onto. But, I suspect his strategy was a quick blitzkrieg-like victory 3 years ago.

The longer this goes on, the more impotent Russia and her army look.

Crimea was a very important victory for Russia - they needed the warm water port for both their navy, and their economy. But, they pretty clearly bit off more than they can chew trying for more territory - particularly since there is not strategic advantage to holding that territory.

Putin thought this would be over in 3 days.

Now, all he is hoping for is to outlast Ukraine.... or actually, more accurately, outlast NATO countries will to support and supply Ukraine. There are many points of interest that suggest that Russia is running out of most everything it needs to fight. Including it's economy- which my point earlier of oil prices rising, helps keep it going but the longer this war goes on the more the Russian economy is hurting. The Russians have made a lot of choices to keep their current economy going in order to fuel the war but will cost them later economically.

I thought this would be over in 3 days. Maybe a week. You gave me a month I'd of bet the farm on it.

 

[BassNBrew]

Russia’s mass production of attack drones is raining fear across Ukrainian cities.

Moscow sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year, straining the country’s air defenses and undermining President Trump’s attempts to secure a peace deal. A statistical analysis by the Center for Information Resilience, a U.K.-based open-source investigations organization, found that Russia, after cranking up production, has launched more than 20,000 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far.

“The massive increase in total drone launches is almost trying to saturate Ukrainian air defenses,” said Kyle Glen, an investigator with CIR. “And that means a higher chance of them actually hitting the target.”

Better hope the Russian economy collapses like @Chadstroma is predicting because these drones will gring Ukraine to dust over time.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia is desperate to sell it's SU-57 to India offering it's source code and co-production in India. Essentially, helping the Indians super charge their aeronautical domestic production capabilities. I think Russia is desperate for two reasons: First, their military hardware has been exposed as being inferior to a significant degree to Western hardware much more so than most people allowed for before the Ukrainian War. Second, their military exports, which was one of their main exports previous to the war, is something they desperately need to keep their economy afloat.

 

[Harry Manback]

Russia’s mass production of attack drones is raining fear across Ukrainian cities.

Moscow sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year, straining the country’s air defenses and undermining President Trump’s attempts to secure a peace deal. A statistical analysis by the Center for Information Resilience, a U.K.-based open-source investigations organization, found that Russia, after cranking up production, has launched more than 20,000 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far.

“The massive increase in total drone launches is almost trying to saturate Ukrainian air defenses,” said Kyle Glen, an investigator with CIR. “And that means a higher chance of them actually hitting the target.”

Better hope the Russian economy collapses like @Chadstroma is predicting because these drones will gring Ukraine to dust over time.

How long can Russia afford to produce these drones? This feels like a last resort rather than a strategic plan. Didn't they lose like 1/3 of their bombers and are essentially unable to replace them?

 

[beer 30]

Russia’s mass production of attack drones is raining fear across Ukrainian cities.

Moscow sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year, straining the country’s air defenses and undermining President Trump’s attempts to secure a peace deal. A statistical analysis by the Center for Information Resilience, a U.K.-based open-source investigations organization, found that Russia, after cranking up production, has launched more than 20,000 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far.

“The massive increase in total drone launches is almost trying to saturate Ukrainian air defenses,” said Kyle Glen, an investigator with CIR. “And that means a higher chance of them actually hitting the target.”

Better hope the Russian economy collapses like @Chadstroma is predicting because these drones will gring Ukraine to dust over time.

How long can Russia afford to produce these drones? This feels like a last resort rather than a strategic plan. Didn't they lose like 1/3 of their bombers and are essentially unable to replace them?

Two different conversations IMO. Drones are cheap (relatively speaking). Those bombers are not and the production facilities used to produce either no longer exist or are being used to produce something else currently. Drones can be made in your garage.

 

[Harry Manback]

Russia’s mass production of attack drones is raining fear across Ukrainian cities.

Moscow sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year, straining the country’s air defenses and undermining President Trump’s attempts to secure a peace deal. A statistical analysis by the Center for Information Resilience, a U.K.-based open-source investigations organization, found that Russia, after cranking up production, has launched more than 20,000 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far.

“The massive increase in total drone launches is almost trying to saturate Ukrainian air defenses,” said Kyle Glen, an investigator with CIR. “And that means a higher chance of them actually hitting the target.”

Better hope the Russian economy collapses like @Chadstroma is predicting because these drones will gring Ukraine to dust over time.

How long can Russia afford to produce these drones? This feels like a last resort rather than a strategic plan. Didn't they lose like 1/3 of their bombers and are essentially unable to replace them?

Two different conversations IMO. Drones are cheap (relatively speaking). Those bombers are not and the production facilities used to produce either no longer exist or are being used to produce something else currently. Drones can be made in your garage.

So why the pivot now if it's so cheap/easy/effective? I suppose using those drones requires intel on soft targets and a plan to get them there (ala what the Ukrainians did with the cargo trucks planting drones 3000k miles into Russia.

 

[beer 30]

Russia’s mass production of attack drones is raining fear across Ukrainian cities.

Moscow sent as many long-range attack drones against its neighbor in the first two weeks of June as it did during whole months last year, straining the country’s air defenses and undermining President Trump’s attempts to secure a peace deal. A statistical analysis by the Center for Information Resilience, a U.K.-based open-source investigations organization, found that Russia, after cranking up production, has launched more than 20,000 attack and decoy drones in 2025 so far.

“The massive increase in total drone launches is almost trying to saturate Ukrainian air defenses,” said Kyle Glen, an investigator with CIR. “And that means a higher chance of them actually hitting the target.”

Better hope the Russian economy collapses like @Chadstroma is predicting because these drones will gring Ukraine to dust over time.

How long can Russia afford to produce these drones? This feels like a last resort rather than a strategic plan. Didn't they lose like 1/3 of their bombers and are essentially unable to replace them?

Two different conversations IMO. Drones are cheap (relatively speaking). Those bombers are not and the production facilities used to produce either no longer exist or are being used to produce something else currently. Drones can be made in your garage.

So why the pivot now if it's so cheap/easy/effective? I suppose using those drones requires intel on soft targets and a plan to get them there (ala what the Ukrainians did with the cargo trucks planting drones 3000k miles into Russia.

Good question, my guess is there a a number of answers that contribute. This is all just me speculating.

1. Russia was late to the party on drones. Remember early on Ukraine was dominating with them. Russia was relying on Iran to supply drones.
2. See above, Russia was relying on Iran for a while. I don't think Iran is going to be exporting squadoosh for a while.
3. As they became more familiar with the tech, probably made sense to bring it in house so Russia does what Russia does, they bring massive resources to bear to play catch up.
4. Russia suffered from reading their own headlines to start thinking that they could simply walk over Ukraine by sheer will & force. Up until recently, they were still throwing bodies at problems instead of technology. I think they are starting to run out of bodies.

 

[Chadstroma]

So why the pivot now if it's so cheap/easy/effective? I suppose using those drones requires intel on soft targets and a plan to get them there (ala what the Ukrainians did with the cargo trucks planting drones 3000k miles into Russia.

They are relatively cheap to produce, can source a lot of what they need to produce them as 'dual use' from China and they have been effective on the battlefield. On top of all of that, Russia is running out of other options as their ability to conduct major ground offensives is being or perhaps is exhausted. They can not replenish the losses they have suffered on things you need to launch a major offensive like tanks and armored vehicles.

The most effective weapon that the Russians have right now are the drones with fiber optic controls. They are doing a lot of damage. Also, the Russians have switched up tactics that have been working better on the use of their drones.

 

[Chadstroma]

Military Watch Magazine

Military Watch is a provider of reliable and insightful analysis into military and military related affairs across the world. From Asia-Pacific tensions to conflict in Europe and Africa, an understanding of military developments is key to fully comprehending foreign relations and politics today.

militarywatchmagazine.com

 

[fatness]

This war seems to fade from public interest (and perhaps national interest) now that things have heated up between Israel and Iran.

At least 15 people, including an American citizen, were killed and 114 injured in a massive overnight attack on Kyiv, marking the deadliest strike on the Ukrainian capital this year.Russia pummeled Kyiv and its suburbs with 175 drones, 14 cruise missiles and two ballistic missiles, Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv city military administration, said in a post on Telegram. Across Ukraine, more than 440 drones and 32 missiles hit multiple cities, President Volodymyr Zelensky said, including Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Mykolaiv and Odessa, where a 15th victim — a 60-year-old woman — died and another 17 were injured.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/17/ukraine-russia-kyiv-missile-drone-strikes/

Archived to avoid paywall: https://archive.ph/VISTp

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Arms Supplies Can Stretch Into 2026, Czech Minister Says

The Czech Republic’s top diplomat said his country is prepared to extend its program to deliver heavy ammunition to Ukraine into next year as Europe rushes to bolster support to Kyiv.
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said the nation’s effort to procure ammunition globally backed by allied funding has been a “game changer” on the battlefield. In an interview in Prague, he said Ukrainian forces now had about one round for every two fire by Russia, up from a 1-to-10 ratio at the start of the war in February 2022.

The Czech Republic, one of Kyiv’s staunchest supporters, has said deliveries will climb to 1.8 million shells this year with financing from 11 countries. But plans to continue the program may depend on the outcome of a key election in October.
“We’ve secured funding for next year,” Lipavsky, 39, said in his office in the Czech capital on Monday, adding that his country has trained 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers and plans to train pilots.
“But what is absolutely crucial is to preserve political support for the ammunition initiative after Czech parliamentary elections,” he added
The timing is significant. Polls show billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, who has spoken out against arming Ukraine and hosting war refugees, leading in polls ahead of the Oct. 3-4 ballot. The center-right government under Prime Minister Petr Fiala is trailing well behind.

WP article:

A Ukrainian security official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Tuesday’s attack on Kyiv came after the U.S. transferred a stockpile of 10,000 anti-drone munitions designated for Ukraine to the Middle East instead.
The lack of the “relatively cheap missiles” — or little rockets used to intercept drones — the security official said, was creating a perilous situation for Ukraine at a time when the Kremlin is firing hundreds of drones in each attack.
“They took all of that ammunition. They were super important,” the official said. “We need to find a new anti-Shahed solution as soon as possible. Otherwise we will have this situation every day,” he said referring to the Iranian-style drones Russia uses in its attacks.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2025

A staff officer of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Kupyansk direction reported on June 17 that Russian forces increased the number of strikes against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the last week and that Russian forces are still attempting to cross the Oskil River. The officer reported that Russian forces are attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian positions and accumulate in small infantry groups of poorly trained soldiers and then strike the seams between Ukrainian positions.

The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported on June 17 that a significant number of Russian forces are surrendering as prisoners of war (POWs) because Russian commanders are abandoning the soldiers without food and water. The spokesperson reported that some of the POWs are migrant workers from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Tajikistan who signed contracts with the Russian MoD in order to gain Russian citizenship.

North Korea sending 6,000 military builders, sappers to Russia, Shoigu says after meeting Kim

After the meeting with Kim, Shoigu announced that North Korea had decided to send 1,000 sappers and 5,000 military builders to rebuild Russia's Kursk Oblast, according to TASS.

Russians pushing toward Dnipropetrovsk region

Russian forces continue attempts to break through to the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk region. Currently, the most intense fighting is occurring in the Novopavlivka sector.
This was reported in a comment to Ukrinform by Spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces Vladyslav Voloshyn.

“The most challenging situation is in the Novopavlivka sector, where the enemy is trying to break through to the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk region. There are still several of our villages under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, including Zelene Pole, Vilne Pole, Novopil, Shevchenko, Bahatyr, and Kostiantynopil. These are a few settlements located in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, which the enemy is now trying with all their might to capture in order to enter Dnipropetrovsk region. In the Novopavlivka sector last week, a record number of assaults per day was recorded — 46,” Voloshyn said. He added that usually, the number of assaults fluctuated around 35-40 per day.

Video: https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1935319186667888802

A Ukrainian VTOL mothership UAV carrying a pair of FPV drones. Footage taken by a Russian interceptor drone. The Russian military correspondent who shared the video said the mothership flies 50-60 km deep.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1935317595806183822

Yle reports that Russia is building a new military garrison near the border with Finland — the first sign of a permanent increase in troop numbers within 100 kilometers of the border.

https://x.com/HoansSolo/status/1935380888713650558

At #lwc25, Chief of the German Army Lt. Gen. Alfons Mais stated that first contact with the enemy will henceforth be unmanned. Drawing from the war in Ukraine, he outlines four key lessons for the Bundeswehr: the strategic importance of low-altitude airspace, the need for accelerated kill chains, control of the electromagnetic spectrum, and the return of mass as a critical factor. He emphasizes that close combat will fundamentally change, requiring 360-degree, multi-domain defense. Nonetheless, armored platforms will remain essential in combat operations.

 

[fatness]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-...ssile-strike-91245843b6ef6f191313686458676b82

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday said a Russian missile strike on a nine-story Kyiv apartment building was a sign that more pressure must be applied on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, as Moscow intensifies attacks in the three-year war. The drone and missile attack on Kyiv early on Tuesday, the deadliest assault on the capital this year, killed 28 people across the city and injured 142 more, Kyiv Military Administration head Tymur Tkachenko said on Thursday. Zelenskyy, along with the head of the presidential office Andrii Yermak and Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, visited the site of the apartment building in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district Thursday morning, laying flowers and paying tribute to the 23 people who died there after a direct hit by a missile collapsed the structure. “This attack is a reminder to the world that Russia rejects a ceasefire and chooses killing,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram, and thanked Ukraine’s partners who he said are ready to pressure Russia to “feel the real cost of the war.”