Some more thoughts about CONCACAF qualifying:
World Cup Qualifying - CONCACAF Fourth Round
............................GP W D L GS GC GD P
Costa Rica ............5 ..4. 0 1 9 ...5 ...4 .12
United States ........5 ..3 .1 1 10 ..6 ..4 ..10
El Salvador ...........4 ..1 .2 1 6 ...6 ...0 ..5
Honduras ..............4 ..1 .1 2 5 ...6 ..-1 ..4
Mexico ..................4 ..1 .0 3 4 ...7 ..-3 ..3
Trinidad & Tobago ..4 ..0 .2 2 5 ...9 ..-4 ..2
Remaining games with my best guess for points taken in each:
US:
Away to Mexico (0)
Home v El Salvador (3)
Away to T&T (3)
Away to Honduras (0)
Home to Costa Rica (1)
17 pts total.
Pivotal games- Need to win at T&T and get a point from Costa Rica at home (they'll have already qualified by this point, so maybe they'll send some young legs at us to give them experience). I'm going to assume they'll follow recent Central American away form and drop the game at Honduras. (edit- spaced on a Mexico game that I have them winning- that puts US and Honduras tied for 3rd)
Costa Rica:
Away to Honduras (1)
(0)
Home to Mexico (1)
Away to El Salvador (3)
Home to T&T (3)
Away to US (1)
21 pts total (20 pts)
Pivotal Games: A point at Honduras and at home vs Mexico and the Ticos will basically have it wrapped up. T&T at home gives them a slam dunk win and only in need of 2 more points from their remaining games. I think 17 points is going to get you into the WC for the region.
Mexico:
Home to T&T (3)
Home to US (3)
Away to Costa Rica (1)
Home to Honduras (3)
Home to El Salvador (3)
Away to T&T (3)
19pts total
Pivotal Games: They're all pivotal for the El Tri at this point. They NEED to beat the US and Honduras at home. I'm being generous by giving them a point in CR, but I think they'll be up for it and I think CR will be over-confident. Away to T&T will be all or nothing. (edit- forgot about home to ES!... that puts them through, even with a loss to CR)
Honduras:
Home to El Salvador (3)
Home to Costa Rica (1)
(3)
Home to T&T (3)
Away to Mexico (0)
Home to US (3)
Away to El Salvador (3)
17pts total 19pts
Pivotal Games: A point from CR would be huge as well as all three from the US and three more away at difficult El Salvador. I think they have the talent. (edit- with that Mexico game I missed, Honduras and the US will be tied on points... tie-breaker based on Goal Differential? Wow... this could be huge).
El Salvador:
Away to Honduras (0)
Away to T&T (1)
(0)
Away to US (0)
Home to Costa Rica (0)
Away to Mexico (0)
Home to Honduras (0)
6pts total 5pts
Pivotal Games: The onslaught of away games will put them in their proper place.
Trinidad & Tobago:
Away to Mexico (0)
Home to El Salvador (1)
(3)
Away to Honduras (0)
Home to US (0)
Away to Costa Rica (0)
Home to Mexico (0)
3pts total 5 pts
Pivotal Games: Could be a spoiler more than once, but I don't think they'll have the depth or legs to hang on during the club-team "off"/pre-season.
That puts Costa Rica, Mexico and either the US or Honduras through based on GD, with loser of that tie-break battling it out with CONMEBOL's 5th spot (currently Uruguay).
edit: totally missed Mexico's home game/win vs ES. That changes everything... hope I covered it above.