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***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter jpeace121
- Start date
Native
Footballguy
See my post above. Trying to figure it all out but I am
andy_b
Footballguy
Your math is off I think. My hope is 3 on Wednesday which puts us at 16. 1 from Honduras would only put us at 17, not 19. I also think getting a point in Honduras is a long shot. They are playing the best of any Concacaf team IMO at this time.My guess is that we will be at 16 going into the CR game where we may have to get 3 points to assure qualification.I am also having a hard time figuring out if I want CR to win or a tie. One thing for sure is we do not want Mexico to win tonight.
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andy_b
Footballguy
agreed.
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Let's see. Assuming Honduras holds on 2-0 we got...
Honduras 13 with a +6 GD at Mexico, vs USA, at El Salvador
USA 13 with a +4 GD at Trinidad, at Honduras, vs Costa Rica
Costa Rica 12 with ev GD Mexico, at El Salvador, Trinidad, at USA
Mexico 9 with -1 GD at Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, at Trinidad.
Mexico looks pretty darn good for those last 3 games. Probably getting 9, definitely getting no less than 7.
If they get 9, they'll have 18 + tonight.
Costa Rica will likely get 6 against El S and Trin.
So they'd have 18 + tonight going into the US game.
Honduras will probably lose to Mexico and beat El Salvador giving them 16 w/o our game.
We beat Trinidad (a must win) we'll have 16.
-----------------
A Mexico win tonight puts them on a track for 21, with Costa Rica likely heading to our game with 18.
A Mexico tie tonight puts them on track for 19, with Costa Rica likely heading to our game with 20.
A Mexico lost tonight puts them on track for 18, with Costa Rica likely heading to our game with 21.
I think it's all on that Honduras game and we need no worse that a tie (and preferably a win) to really render the CR game meaningless.
If (as is likely) we have 16 and Honduras has 13, a tie will be nice but would force us to get a tie against CR to truly be safe. Unless we beat the crap out of Trinidad they'll have GD on us for sure.
When all is said and done the magic # is 18 points.
-QG
Honduras 13 with a +6 GD at Mexico, vs USA, at El Salvador
USA 13 with a +4 GD at Trinidad, at Honduras, vs Costa Rica
Costa Rica 12 with ev GD Mexico, at El Salvador, Trinidad, at USA
Mexico 9 with -1 GD at Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, at Trinidad.
Mexico looks pretty darn good for those last 3 games. Probably getting 9, definitely getting no less than 7.
If they get 9, they'll have 18 + tonight.
Costa Rica will likely get 6 against El S and Trin.
So they'd have 18 + tonight going into the US game.
Honduras will probably lose to Mexico and beat El Salvador giving them 16 w/o our game.
We beat Trinidad (a must win) we'll have 16.
-----------------
A Mexico win tonight puts them on a track for 21, with Costa Rica likely heading to our game with 18.
A Mexico tie tonight puts them on track for 19, with Costa Rica likely heading to our game with 20.
A Mexico lost tonight puts them on track for 18, with Costa Rica likely heading to our game with 21.
I think it's all on that Honduras game and we need no worse that a tie (and preferably a win) to really render the CR game meaningless.
If (as is likely) we have 16 and Honduras has 13, a tie will be nice but would force us to get a tie against CR to truly be safe. Unless we beat the crap out of Trinidad they'll have GD on us for sure.
When all is said and done the magic # is 18 points.
-QG
Native
Footballguy
Thanks for this....
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
The angry, bitter American in me wants Costa Rica to crush Mexico...
andy_b
Footballguy
Interestingly, this result actually would move us into 2nd ahead of CR on GD.
Native
Footballguy
If the results holds:Honduras 13 with a +6 GD at Mexico, vs USA, at El SalvadorUSA 13 with a +4 GD at Trinidad, at Honduras, vs Costa RicaMexico 12 with 0 GD at Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, at Trinidad.Costa Rica 12 with -1 GD at El Salvador, Trinidad, at USA
andy_b
Footballguy
holy smokes. CR could go from 1st to 4th in one game. That is nuts!
LHUCKS
Footballguy
you know what though, the US needs to be tested...people ##### about Concacaf, but tests like this are what the US needs IMHO.2-0 to Mexico. Good lord is this going to be a tough last game.The way its shaping up, the last game may determine whether the US or CR comes in 4th
Native
Footballguy
Time for more speculating. You have to assume that Honduras will lose in the Azteca on Wed (noone ever wins there). Likewise, lets assume that the US beats T&T and Costa Rica beats El Salvador. That means the table would look like this...
USA 16 at Honduras, vs Costa Rica
Mexico 15 El Salvador, at Trinidad.
Costa Rica 15 Trinidad, at USA
Honduras 13 vs USA, at El Salvador
It sets up the US Honduras match as the decisive game. If the US can manage a point in Honduras, that would give us a solid three point cushion over them heading into the final round....Even if we lost to CR in the finale at home, we could only be passed by Honduras on goal differential
USA 16 at Honduras, vs Costa Rica
Mexico 15 El Salvador, at Trinidad.
Costa Rica 15 Trinidad, at USA
Honduras 13 vs USA, at El Salvador
It sets up the US Honduras match as the decisive game. If the US can manage a point in Honduras, that would give us a solid three point cushion over them heading into the final round....Even if we lost to CR in the finale at home, we could only be passed by Honduras on goal differential
LHUCKS
Footballguy
andy_b
Footballguy
The good news is that even if the US does not get a point in Honduras, it should still have control of its own faith as a win against CR should see us safely above them assuming 6 points for CR and 3 for US before the final game.ELS could do us a nice favor by grabbing a point from CR. That would allow us to draw the last game and still get in.Of course this is all meaningless with out 3 points on Wednesday at T&T.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Is Vela playing?
Native
Footballguy
Correct. Take care of business at home and we are set.
prefontaine
Footballguy
Some general thoughts on the game - we still have a major hole at wing back and the lack of pace is a real problem against a team like ES. By mid 2nd half they had figured out that they could just send long balls to the corners and their forwards and mids could all out sprint our guys to the ball. They must have done this 10 times and never once did we even really challenge for it. This is going to be a major problem. In the middle, we look flat out awful without Gooch. He wins every ball in the air and basically eliminates chances with his presence.
I also didn't like the decision to use Benny as the holding mid. He is not well suited to be the lone defender in the middle and I think the holding role stifles his creativity. I'd much prefer to see Bradley holding and let Benny run the offense. Bradley is probably better suited to be a box to box mid than a holding one, but we are still better off I think in that setup.
The refs were simply awful. The call on Jozy for hooking was a joke. There were multiple hand balls missed. There were quite a few fouls that were missed, most notably a couple of tackles above the ball (one by Bradley and one by an ES player) that should have been an insta-yellow at worst - neither was even called a foul. And I don't think he handled the game well at all. Both sides were (rightfully) furious at times.
Bornstein - I'm simply speechlesss. Bloody awful. I mean bad high school stuff
Boca/Marshall - Neither is a really strong defender and both lack quickness. They should be our 3/4 DCs from here on out.
Spector - Not a great game but he did provide some very nice crosses.
Fehlheiber - he was a bit MIA but as I said above, I think the tactics led to this.
Bradley - I like that he was playing higher but it just seems he was out of sync a bit. It's like the other players forgot they changed tactics and their runs seemed to be on top of each other.
Dempsey - Very nice. Such a world of difference from the Mexico game.
LD - just a nice overall game. Some excellent crosses
Davies - continues to make chances out of what appears to be nothing with his burst.
Jozy - first touch still lets him down at times but he's seeing the game well and he's growing into his role
Holden - crosses the ball better than anyone we have (including Donovan) and he has a real presence. Love what I've seen so far
Beckerman - yes, this is the big stage but he pissed himself tonight
Torres - seemed good but blew that header that should have sealed the game (no excuses....he was wide open with the goalie out of position and he hit it chest high without a ton of pace)
Coaching - like the change in tactics to give more offense in a must win situation. Wish he didn't have a hard on for Bornstein and hope he doesn't continue to stiffle Benny.
I also didn't like the decision to use Benny as the holding mid. He is not well suited to be the lone defender in the middle and I think the holding role stifles his creativity. I'd much prefer to see Bradley holding and let Benny run the offense. Bradley is probably better suited to be a box to box mid than a holding one, but we are still better off I think in that setup.
The refs were simply awful. The call on Jozy for hooking was a joke. There were multiple hand balls missed. There were quite a few fouls that were missed, most notably a couple of tackles above the ball (one by Bradley and one by an ES player) that should have been an insta-yellow at worst - neither was even called a foul. And I don't think he handled the game well at all. Both sides were (rightfully) furious at times.
Bornstein - I'm simply speechlesss. Bloody awful. I mean bad high school stuff
Boca/Marshall - Neither is a really strong defender and both lack quickness. They should be our 3/4 DCs from here on out.
Spector - Not a great game but he did provide some very nice crosses.
Fehlheiber - he was a bit MIA but as I said above, I think the tactics led to this.
Bradley - I like that he was playing higher but it just seems he was out of sync a bit. It's like the other players forgot they changed tactics and their runs seemed to be on top of each other.
Dempsey - Very nice. Such a world of difference from the Mexico game.
LD - just a nice overall game. Some excellent crosses
Davies - continues to make chances out of what appears to be nothing with his burst.
Jozy - first touch still lets him down at times but he's seeing the game well and he's growing into his role
Holden - crosses the ball better than anyone we have (including Donovan) and he has a real presence. Love what I've seen so far
Beckerman - yes, this is the big stage but he pissed himself tonight
Torres - seemed good but blew that header that should have sealed the game (no excuses....he was wide open with the goalie out of position and he hit it chest high without a ton of pace)
Coaching - like the change in tactics to give more offense in a must win situation. Wish he didn't have a hard on for Bornstein and hope he doesn't continue to stiffle Benny.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
The problem is that Honduras will still have a game in El Salvador while our last game is against Costa Rica. The good news is that El Salvador's not a walk-over there - they have a win and 2 ties at home so far. The fun part is that there's no way El Salvador would lay down to Honduras as they have actually fought a war that was started by riots following a World Cup Qualifier 40 years ago: "The Football War". (El Salvador is 3-2 in World Cup Qualifying matches at home vs. Honduras though Honduas won 5-2 the last time were there so clearly they are adept at playing on pavement.)Anyhow, back to 18 being the magic number.
Mexico beating El S and Trindidad means 21 guaranteed.
Costa Rica beating Trinidad and El Salvador means 18 guaranteed.
Honduras beating El Salvador means 16 guaranteed.
And the US beating Trinidad means 16 guaranteed.
A tie vs. Honduras is almost certain doom (unless we really really whip up on Trinidad). So stated more simply than my first post the facts remain the same. Barring any unforseen minnow points, 18 is the number to avoid Argen...naah it'll probably be Colombia.
The thing is, if we are the side we are supposed to be. #11 in the FIFA rankings. We. Must. Be. Able. To. Win. At. Honduras. Period.
-QG
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andy_b
Footballguy
how does 2 wins get Mexico to 21? I think they need three wins to get to 21.Using the FIFA rankings and then trying to apply them too WCQ in Honduras is not going to give you good results. A majority of the top 20 teams would struggle playing in Honduras especially if looking for a win. And has been stated above, losing to Honduras, while expected is not going to kill the US. They will still control their own fate with a win at home.
Right now beating CR at home is going to be significantly easier than winning away at Honduras, especially given the current forms of the teams (that of course could change)
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Oops
still the same ultimate ending - USA needs 18 to advance, barring any minnows winning.-QG
andy_b
Footballguy
I don't believe he did play unless he subbed in late.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Well sure under current form it should CR that's sweating the most but still I think the scenario that most of this board relishes least is the idea that the US will have to play Costa Rica needing a win to qualify. I know I'd be
the whole match.-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
This is quite possibly the most hideous sentence I have ever constructed.Well sure under current form it should CR that's sweating the most but still I think the scenario that most of this board relishes least is the idea that the US will have to play Costa Rica needing a win to qualify. I know I'd be
-QG
B Maverick
Footballguy
Was there any clarification on why the beautufil 3rd goal was called back? It wasnt offside, there was no foul by the US on the sliding pass (if anything foul on el salvadore for being late to the ball). Was the ref drom El Salvadore? Or Mexico?
Worst call i have seen in a long time.
Worst call i have seen in a long time.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Ref was from El Salvador...hopefully he doesn't see the field at this level ever again...terrible, hometown call. Jozy was all over him after the game too...jackass was just smiling and saying "foul".
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Watched the game with my brother.
He said it best: "This looked like a pre-season MLS game. What a shame that the US has no possession in the midfield. It's ugly."
He said it best: "This looked like a pre-season MLS game. What a shame that the US has no possession in the midfield. It's ugly."
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I think we'll have some improvements in the midfield both tactically and personnell wise as well...it'll definitely be our soft spot in 2010 though.
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
The US should have been sitting on a nice 1 goal cushion after half. They have no ability to hold the ball through the defense and pus up to hold the ball through the midfield. It was clear that ELS was outclasses in nearly every area. With a 1 goal lead, that's the time that you need to FORCE them to beat you, while you pick your spots to attack. Instead the US pushed forward at nearly every opportunity to spot a streaking player into space. That's the way to play the game from the start to get the lead, but if can lead to some pretty big breakdowns (like the shot that nearly equalized late).
LD was the best player on the pitch. Davies brings an ability to amke something happen. Good thigns happen for the US when he gets touches, and furthermore he works well w/ Jozy.
I don't get the love for Demps here though. He has the ability to finish, but rarely does, and when he does it seems like he simply gets lucky. I think one of the major things that makes him look bad is that he essentialy is playing a similar position to LD, but doesn't have the motor or the open space skills of LD. That makes him look lethargic and lazy. LD is the best player to ever wear the stars and stripes, so it's tough place to be opposite him in his prime, but I STILL expect Demps to have better finishing.
Gooch was sorely missed as a presence in the middle. Boca did much better today than his game against MEX. He didn't get beat on crosses and his tackles were solid.
Bornstien look bad, and Feilhaber didn't really impress me. Beckerman (aka rasta boy for the Spanish language anouncers) shouldn't suit up for the team for a while. Torres shoudl have buried that chance, but I still like his skills vis a vis the other US MFs. He brings something that we're missing/
Anyway, I'm drunk and Cal kicked the #### out of Maryland, so I'm happy.
Go Bear and Go Nats.
LD was the best player on the pitch. Davies brings an ability to amke something happen. Good thigns happen for the US when he gets touches, and furthermore he works well w/ Jozy.
I don't get the love for Demps here though. He has the ability to finish, but rarely does, and when he does it seems like he simply gets lucky. I think one of the major things that makes him look bad is that he essentialy is playing a similar position to LD, but doesn't have the motor or the open space skills of LD. That makes him look lethargic and lazy. LD is the best player to ever wear the stars and stripes, so it's tough place to be opposite him in his prime, but I STILL expect Demps to have better finishing.
Gooch was sorely missed as a presence in the middle. Boca did much better today than his game against MEX. He didn't get beat on crosses and his tackles were solid.
Bornstien look bad, and Feilhaber didn't really impress me. Beckerman (aka rasta boy for the Spanish language anouncers) shouldn't suit up for the team for a while. Torres shoudl have buried that chance, but I still like his skills vis a vis the other US MFs. He brings something that we're missing/
Anyway, I'm drunk and Cal kicked the #### out of Maryland, so I'm happy.
Go Bear and Go Nats.
prefontaine
Footballguy
not sure wtf happened. set the DVR to record this game on ESPN Classic and came home to find 2 hours of a black screen with a message saying "Upgrade package needed".Did Directv remove ESPN Classic from their basic programming packages? Not sure when this happened, but it must have been pretty recent. Sucks that I missed the game, although I'm glad to hear they won.
andy_b
Footballguy
NO clarification. Jozy even asked and he got no answer.
andy_b
Footballguy
Ref was from Honduras not ELS. I don't think FIFA allows a ref from the same country to ref a WCQ game.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Huh...I'm almost positive the announcers said he was from ELS, but that would make sense.
andy_b
Footballguy
something strange is going on.Direct TV is listing ESPN Classic in only its Highest level packeg but I know for fact that I don't get that package and I saw the game last night.
http://www.directv.com/DTVAPP/compare/comp...ageType=ENGLISH
Direct TV changes packages so often that they sometime grand father some channels based on what old retired package you might have had. That may be how I am still getting the channel. Hopefully I will continue to get it since the game is on ESPN Classic on Wednesday as well.
Aaron if you call Dire TV, let us know what you find out.
andy_b
Footballguy
Native
Footballguy
http://www.sltrib.com/realsaltlake/ci_13280244
Coach Bradley on the Davies-Altidore Partnership:
"We think with Jozy and Charlie, it gives us a physical dimension, speed and strength to keep defenses on their heels," U.S. coach Bob Bradley said. "There's been progress for sure. I hope it can continue."
Coach Bradley on the Davies-Altidore Partnership:
"We think with Jozy and Charlie, it gives us a physical dimension, speed and strength to keep defenses on their heels," U.S. coach Bob Bradley said. "There's been progress for sure. I hope it can continue."
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