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- Thread starter David Dodds
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OU#1
Footballguy
Sim has me at #165 this week (100066) probably my highest ranking this year. I find that ironic as I think I'll be cut any week now. With Hass out, Felix out, FWP ailing, Robinson done for the season, Bironas ailing, Bradshaw in a boot, Chambers has done nothing, Nicks is out...
Bamboo Bill
Footballguy
If I make it through this week it will be a miracle.
Kevin Smith
Deangelo (bye)
D. Jackson (bye)
L. Robinson
Felix Jones
Matt Ryan (bye)
Kevin Smith
Deangelo (bye)
D. Jackson (bye)
L. Robinson
Felix Jones
Matt Ryan (bye)
I am kind of baffled too looking at your team. For some reason the simulation really likes the Packers this week, and the Packers are on the road to Minnesota. With Hasselbeck questionable, Rogers has to produce you. You have some good possibilities in the backfield, but a lot of question marks too. I am not sure I would trade places with you this week and my team is ranked around 3300.
I just notices that about 1/3rd of my salary cap is on Bye next week...(Chicago,Green Bay,New Orleans,San Diego). I made sure each position was covered for the Bye, but I was not careful enough to look at my studs. (Rivers, Grant, Coleson, GB def) all off. Best QB, 2nd WR and RB, and Best Def. Next week I will probably be on the bubble.
Looks like I am rolling with no QB this week with Hasselback now out, Ryan n bye and Leftwich on the bench. I guess I should have added a legitimate 3rd QB. Would have been nice if Leftwich could have at least held down the job another week and scored me a couple points this week. No Westbrook/McCoy this week either so it could be a short stay.
fatness king
Footballguy
Is the SIM screwing with me? Does it put your entry at the top?? I had to check my entry number 3-4 times...
1. Team 108795 | 100.0 | 175 | 275 194 177 166 152 115
1. Team 108795 | 100.0 | 175 | 275 194 177 166 152 115
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Ouch. Enjoy this week. You've got a tough one next week. As you already know, you'll be adding Rodgers, Grant, Finley, Gould, and the Packers defense to that list.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Slaton is my only late bye (week 10). But he's sucked so much so far, it doesn't hurt me that much. And Willie Parker being injured isn't bad, either. He's been terrible. Thank goodness for my WRs and TEs. They are carrying my team.
WR - Roddy White - 33
WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27
WR - Chris Henry - 12
WR - Derrick Mason - 9
WR - Nate Burleson - 5
WR - Percy Harvin - 5
WR - Patrick Crayton - 4
TE - John Carlson - 11
TE - Brent Celek - 7
TE - Jermichael Finley - 3
WR - Roddy White - 33
WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27
WR - Chris Henry - 12
WR - Derrick Mason - 9
WR - Nate Burleson - 5
WR - Percy Harvin - 5
WR - Patrick Crayton - 4
TE - John Carlson - 11
TE - Brent Celek - 7
TE - Jermichael Finley - 3
pats3in4
Footballguy
I'm done this week without a QB as Warner is on bye, Pennington is on IR and Leftwich is benched. Humorously enough, Leftwich got me past week 1.I've got Boldin on bye, D.Jackson on bye and A.Gonzalez out...my top 3 WRs. The predictor gives me a 19% chance of advancing. I think it's being generous. This would be a great week to see Percy Harvin and Chris Henry have career games.
gregjcross
Footballguy
many teams have a large mix of these players, week 5 is the killer bye.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Started the same way.. but modified my QB's to Palmer, Hoss & Bulger. Atleast Palmer has Clev this week. Also missing Felix but still have Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker & Ryan Grant. My WR's took a hit with Hixon hurt/losing job, but Kevin Walter's return was a nice surprise last week.I had an 85% SIM, but I still don't understand that whole thing.... no time to read all of it...
nashua55
Footballguy
The simulator can give you false sense of security. Week 2 I was ranked #3 with a 99.6% chance of survival. That Sunday my team laid an egg. My chances for survival was dropped to 16% for Monday. I had 104 points with only on player left playing on Monday night. Luckily I had Dallas Clark who scored 34pts. It was a miracle that I survived.firstseason1988 said:6 teams with a 100% chance of survival.I guarantee if I was one of thosel, I wouldn't survive.I guess every sim they survived?Kinda interesting. No one gets hurt in the sim?
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Yeah, these 6 teams: 1. Team 108795 | 100.0 | 175 | 275 194 177 166 152 115 2. Team 104003 | 100.0 | 174 | 285 196 178 165 152 110 3. Team 111728 | 100.0 | 174 | 272 196 179 166 150 118 4. Team 107274 | 100.0 | 174 | 285 195 178 165 151 111 5. Team 109580 | 100.0 | 170 | 265 189 175 162 148 110 6. Team 100865 | 100.0 | 168 | 272 189 173 159 146 109 I am sorry, I believe that these teams will survive this week. But in no way is it 100%. I mean theoretically all the players could get a zero. It's a neat tool and has performed well, 100% before any games are played, a flaw in the programming.The simulator can give you false sense of security. Week 2 I was ranked #3 with a 99.6% chance of survival. That Sunday my team laid an egg. My chances for survival was dropped to 16% for Monday. I had 104 points with only on player left playing on Monday night. Luckily I had Dallas Clark who scored 34pts. It was a miracle that I survived.firstseason1988 said:6 teams with a 100% chance of survival.
It's just a sim, dude. That means that they made it through 1000 of 1000 times the sim ran. That's all.firstseason1988 said:I am sorry, I believe that these teams will survive this week. But in no way is it 100%. I mean theoretically all the players could get a zero. It's a neat tool and has performed well, 100% before any games are played, a flaw in the programming.
FFCardsFan
Footballguy
im screwed. my rb's are gore (hurt), d.williams (bye), leon w, felix (hurt) and james davis. haha ####.
need a huge week from my wr's...oh wait, rodgers thinks jennings has a disease, boldin is on a bye, and l. robinson is done. sweet.
need a huge week from my wr's...oh wait, rodgers thinks jennings has a disease, boldin is on a bye, and l. robinson is done. sweet.
Well, i don't know if it is a flaw, just limited. It does not seem to take into account the possibility of an injury. So if a QB is expected to score 24 points, each simulation probably results in a score of say 14-34 points. Those teams are probably set up where they has similar players to a lot of other teams with some much better players in the wings and no bye week issues. So even if their studs have an off day, enough other teams will do poorly, they will still survive. But looking at a few of those teams, I think if A. Rogers or someone went down the possibility of elimination is there.firstseason1988 said:Yeah, these 6 teams: 1. Team 108795 | 100.0 | 175 | 275 194 177 166 152 115 2. Team 104003 | 100.0 | 174 | 285 196 178 165 152 110 3. Team 111728 | 100.0 | 174 | 272 196 179 166 150 118 4. Team 107274 | 100.0 | 174 | 285 195 178 165 151 111 5. Team 109580 | 100.0 | 170 | 265 189 175 162 148 110 6. Team 100865 | 100.0 | 168 | 272 189 173 159 146 109 I am sorry, I believe that these teams will survive this week. But in no way is it 100%. I mean theoretically all the players could get a zero. It's a neat tool and has performed well, 100% before any games are played, a flaw in the programming.
Thanks for the compliment!!!!Seriously, there's a saying for this: all mathematical models are imperfect; some are useful anyway.Yes, I agree that a 100% survival rate is wrong on principle. But that's not really an issue with the model itself. It's an issue with the number of times I ran it. If I ran the sim 10,000 times instead of 1000, no team would be listed as having a 100% survival rate. Those teams would be listed at 99.55% or some such, and it would mean exactly the same thing; namely, that those teams are very, very, very unlikely to get eliminated this week.In other words: what GloryDaze said.firstseason1988 said:
The Jerk
Footballguy
I've got the same problem and also Kevin Smith rostered. Looks like
for me, but I was due for bad luck after making it to at least Week 10 each of the past few seasons. I've been very fortunate in past contests with few injuries and barely surviving the cut in one of the first few weeks two of those seasons. Nothing you can do...firstseason1988
Footballguy
Okay, thanks for the reponses, I asked a not necessarily direct question in another post, but I now have my answer. As a first time subscriber, I am loving this contest, I need lots of luck to make it to the end, for various reasons, but will follow it all the way even if I get eliminated. I have avoided injury or bought the handcuff for the injury so far, so I am liking my chances on getting through the next few weeks, and planned my bye weeks decently, an injury could kill me though. Anyway, I love all the stats. Keep em coming.
PatsChowder
Footballguy
Personally, while I would love to see FWP on the field this week, I'd rather see him rest now so he can play during the dreaded week 5 when I'll be short Ryan Grant.
apalmer
Footballguy
Any time I have FWP in this contest, he seems to get hurt in exactly the wrong week. With DWill on bye, I'll need Lynch to play big in his return, and/or for the Rediskins to rest Portis a lot and let Betts score some points for me. On the bright side, all of my WRs (except Robinson) are active as are both my stud TEs, so maybe they can score enough to sneak me through.I've got the same problem and also Kevin Smith rostered. Looks likefor me, but I was due for bad luck after making it to at least Week 10 each of the past few seasons. I've been very fortunate in past contests with few injuries and barely surviving the cut in one of the first few weeks two of those seasons. Nothing you can do...
Short Corner
Footballguy
Down Gore, FWP, Davis, Boldin, Robinson this week
gonzobill5
Footballguy
I'm in a similar spot - dwill, westy on bye, felix and parker hurt. DeSean and Quan on bye. Robinson hurt. No way I make it through. Next year I'll remember to check out the bye weeks.
PatsChowder
Footballguy
Not that I was counting on JDavis, but now with him down I am a little more worried about my RBs. (FWP is banged up, Bradshaw is in a boot). Should be fun.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
With Davis and Robinson now on IR my 24 man team is now down to 22 (21 if you don't count Eddie Royal).
Robbie Cooper
Footballguy
This would be a very nice week for Coffee and J. Charles to put up decent, usable numbers. With DWill, K Smith, and FWP as my three primary RBs, I'll need the help.
I'm actually feeling a little bit optimistic about their prospects this week...as in I wouldn't be surprised if this is the week that Charles busts off a long TD from a screen or draw play.
I'm actually feeling a little bit optimistic about their prospects this week...as in I wouldn't be surprised if this is the week that Charles busts off a long TD from a screen or draw play.
Balco
Footballguy
Lose FWP, Boldin, Laurent Robinson, hasselback. Even if I someohow make it through this week, I am done next week (Brees bye, so no qb, all 3 TE's on bye!)I think with the large number of injuries to some high percentage owned players that the cut will be low this week. Look for a low cut-off number of 120.
Das Boot
Footballguy
I think a lot of teams are going to suffer this week between key injuries and big names on bye.The B-list and C-list players will be pretty important this week and next week in particular.Go Jamaal Charles
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Drinen's sim has it at about 117. Could be worse than that with the latest projections.
Re-run with final projections (again, too late for any usefulness, just for tracking purposes).
ctriopelle
Footballguy
not that its terribly meaningful, but the 7250 spot as of about the end ofthe 3rd quarter of the NO game is standing at about 72. Roughly 1950 teams have cleared the Turk's preliminary cut estimate of 117
gregjcross
Footballguy
At 131 with A.Rogers, VJAX left. Terrible RBs this week, Deangelo on bye & Willie Parker sitting out. Lendale and M.Bush did not pick up the slack.
Yikes - I don't know that I can get to 117 - hope it comes in lower.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Stat pull near the end of the afternoon games has the 7250 mark at just over 82. over 3200 teams over 117 with 2 games to go, although there are probably a LOT of players rostered in these games with the SD, PIT, MIN, and GB offenses going.
Why do I have a bad feeling that Rodgers and Grant lay some eggs for me this week, with just them Harvin, and Vincent Jackson left to go?! Not looking good for me this week sitting at 85...although basically all 4 of those guys will count straight up if they do anything.
Why do I have a bad feeling that Rodgers and Grant lay some eggs for me this week, with just them Harvin, and Vincent Jackson left to go?! Not looking good for me this week sitting at 85...although basically all 4 of those guys will count straight up if they do anything.
Let the egg laying BEGINNNN....
I have 109 and only have longwell > 3 points left. My only hope is several fg's and some really low scoring games. I dont really deserve to go on as my RB's scored a whopping 1.9 points between the 2 of them. New Orleans D gave me hope for a miracle though.
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Sitting at 109.9 with Ryan Grant (-2.70) and VJackson (0) and the Packers D (-7.00) yet to go. Simulation had my current point total at about 10th percentile. As much as I like Favre playing for the Vikes I might have to root for the the GB offense (Grant) and the GB defense. I guess it depends on how big of game VJackson has tonight.
