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Official Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

126ish with Finley and Harvin (minus Hester's 1.2) to go. Should be ok. Ugly production from RBs and WRs, but strong QB (Garrard) and DEF (NO) play helped.

 
I've a 90% chance of survival despite Brees' egg and Celek on bye. If I can scrape by this week, I think a lot of the Brees owners will be gone.

 
Looks like I can breathe easy for once...first time over 140 with Harvin and Grant to be factored in.

Got by the Ryan/White bye week, now I hope they start doing something.

 
Thank you, NO Defense :lmao:

Saved me from a pretty bad week with injuries/crappy performances.

 
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I'm going to need huge days from Rodgers, Berrian and GB D as I'm 40 points shy of the cut line, (of course, those huge days will only up the cut line).

Ryan on bye and Hass hurt, my RBs sucked even worse than I initially thought, and my WRs have just been horrid. Likely my last week in the contest.

 
I'm about 23 points below the projected cutoff right now.

However, I do have Rodgers, Grant, Finley, Harvin, Vikings and Longwell left to play though.

Thanks to Coffee and Britt, I have a chance to advance to next week.

 
I have made it to the last cutdown week every year till now. I missed on every RB and WR except Jackson and Burleson. Could I have spent more and gotten less? I don't think so.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chris Wells, Leon Washington, Ladell Betts, James Davis, Edgerrin James, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson, Ted Ginn, Chris Henry, Nate Burleson, Chaz Schilens, and Laurent Robinson.

Good luck to everyone else!

 
Genedoc said:
I've a 90% chance of survival despite Brees' egg and Celek on bye. If I can scrape by this week, I think a lot of the Brees owners will be gone.
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Roughly 26% of Brees owners are currently below the 15th percentile. He and Warner (35%) are 2 of the most damaging holding this week. There are 18 other players at equal or higher "currently at risk rates", but they are the only 2 on over 100 teams, Warner is on about 100 and Brees is on about 200.
 
smackdaddies said:
proninja said:
Thank you, NO Defense :goodposting:Saved me from a pretty bad week with injuries/crappy performances.
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And all for $1. That is the real value of 24 roster spots - you can pick up that type of opportunity you might not take a chance on if you only had 20 roster spots.
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Agree to that. NO DEF was one of my throw in additions that was a result of the expanded roster rules. Without them this week, I'd be in a really bad spot, quite certain to miss the cut. Currently at 97%, but dropping the 19 points they gained me would put me at about a 30% at best survival rate looking at Turk's simulator.
 
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26% chance to survive tonight... and I going into the weekend I was at 97%. No bye or injury problems. Just horrible weeks from everyone. The only players that cleared 10 points for me were Wayne, Gostkowski and Schuab.

91.9 with Grant -3.5, Crosby -11 and Harvin -5.1.

 
Genedoc said:
I've a 90% chance of survival despite Brees' egg and Celek on bye. If I can scrape by this week, I think a lot of the Brees owners will be gone.
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I think that the better the Saints do, the less potent Brees performances will be. They can and will run the ball some when they are ahead and run the clock. I was one of the ones saddened by them cutting Deuce McAllister, but their running game is improved in 09 with Thomas and Bell.
 
jon_mx said:
editor47 said:
100 thanks to garrardneed the vikings to score more than 5; longwell to score more than 5 and whatever jermichael finley gets would be great. i guess i'm out.
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You are a long ways from out. Right now the cutoff is about 90 so you are in better shape than a lot of teams. If I were you I would be routing against Grant and Rogers who are on a lot of roosters below you. You should have a much better than 50 percent chance of survival.
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I'm only at 97.7, the lowest by far after Sunday I can remember ever having since I started doing this contest, so before checking here I thought for sure I was out or would need a big night from my guys. I have both Grant and Rogers, along with Finley and GB D, but I'd much rather see the Vikes beat the Packers than survive another week, so I'm going to root against all the Packers. I also have Harvin, Shiancoe, and Minn D, so probably can make it without any of the GB guys doing anything.The simulator has me at 100.0% survival, so I think I can keep to my normal cheering for the Vikes and against the Packers without worrying about surviving. Actually, I guess if I can survive even if all these guys put up duds tonight, that would be better for my odds later on, eliminating a bunch of people with the same guys.
 
ctriopelle said:
smackdaddies said:
proninja said:
Thank you, NO Defense :thumbup:Saved me from a pretty bad week with injuries/crappy performances.
Click to expand...
And all for $1. That is the real value of 24 roster spots - you can pick up that type of opportunity you might not take a chance on if you only had 20 roster spots.
Click to expand...
Agree to that. NO DEF was one of my throw in additions that was a result of the expanded roster rules. Without them this week, I'd be in a really bad spot, quite certain to miss the cut. Currently at 97%, but dropping the 19 points they gained me would put me at about a 30% at best survival rate looking at Turk's simulator.
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Unless, of course, you had used that extra dollar to upgrade some other $1 defense to SF. :lmao:
 
firstseason1988 said:
nashua55 said:
firstseason1988 said:
6 teams with a 100% chance of survival. :unsure: I guarantee if I was one of thosel, I wouldn't survive.I guess every sim they survived?Kinda interesting. No one gets hurt in the sim? :shrug:
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The simulator can give you false sense of security. Week 2 I was ranked #3 with a 99.6% chance of survival. That Sunday my team laid an egg. My chances for survival was dropped to 16% for Monday. I had 104 points with only on player left playing on Monday night. Luckily I had Dallas Clark who scored 34pts. It was a miracle that I survived.
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Yeah, these 6 teams: 1. Team 108795 | 100.0 | 175 | 275 194 177 166 152 115 2. Team 104003 | 100.0 | 174 | 285 196 178 165 152 110 3. Team 111728 | 100.0 | 174 | 272 196 179 166 150 118 4. Team 107274 | 100.0 | 174 | 285 195 178 165 151 111 5. Team 109580 | 100.0 | 170 | 265 189 175 162 148 110 6. Team 100865 | 100.0 | 168 | 272 189 173 159 146 109 I am sorry, I believe that these teams will survive this week. But in no way is it 100%. I mean theoretically all the players could get a zero. It's a neat tool and has performed well, 100% before any games are played, a flaw in the programming. :lmao:
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Team - Power rank - Percentage to make cut108795 - 1845 - 100104003 - 1600 - 100111728 - 87 - 100107274 - 19 - 100109580 - 2989 - 100100865 - 6172 - 93.3 sitting at 99, has Rodgers and Grant, getting all of Rodgers and probaly all of Grant.Impressive DD. That sim of yours is pretty good. Will be interested to see the stats tomorrow. :lmao:
 
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I am at 95.60 Points with Harvin and Finley tonight (Minus Bess 4.7, and Crayton 4.6). My Running backs killed me this week and having 4 Eagles on a bye was hard to swallow.

I think I am a goner unless Harvin and Finley each get a TD and 50+ yards.

 
eaglezzz said:
I am at 95.60 Points with Harvin and Finley tonight (Minus Bess 4.7, and Crayton 4.6). My Running backs killed me this week and having 4 Eagles on a bye was hard to swallow.I think I am a goner unless Harvin and Finley each get a TD and 50+ yards.
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Don't forget that TEs get 1.5 ppr. I have Finley and Shinacoe, my only two TEs, sitting at 105, and have Harvin. Need one of those for my TE and/or flex -4.5. If all 3 of those get shut down, which is possible, I am done. :wub: :lmao: :popcorn:
 
Don't forget that TEs get 1.5 ppr. I have Finley and Shinacoe, my only two TEs, sitting at 105, and have Harvin. Need one of those for my TE and/or flex -4.5. If all 3 of those get shut down, which is possible, I am done.

:wub: :lmao: :popcorn:

5 catches and TD for Finley would be nice 13.5 points there with yardage. It will be close good luck to both of us!

 
Original team configuration based solely on projected value gave me Grant and WR1-3 all off week 5. Instead ended up with a week 4 lineup missing DeAngelo, DJax, and Celek, plus several seemingly bad matchups for active players. Looks like Mason, Nate Washington, and Tashard (only 10, but a big 10) will pull me through.

Current Week 4 Starters:

QB: Brady

RB: Choice, Leon Washington

WR: Mason, Nate Washington, Nicks

TE: Daniels

K: Reed

D: Dallas

Flex: Colston

Still playing: Ryan Grant, Green Bay D, Harvin

Bye: DeAngelo Williams, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek, Jason Elam

Non-Scoring: Joe Flacco, Edgerrin James, Jamaal Charles, Ladell Betts, Chaz Schilens

Lost to IR: James Davis, Laurent Robinson

 
For those curious - here are the key % ownership numbers of guys playing tonight. Needless to say - lot of heavily owned guys.

Rodgers 34.1%

Grant 34.0%

Peterson 9.6%

C. Taylor 4.6%

Harvin 40.6%

Jennings 19.3%

Driver 6.5%

Rice 6.5%

Berrian 4.3%

Finley 27.8%

Shiancoe 10.4%

Lee 3.0%

Longwell 12.4%

Crosby 5.8%

Packers D 24.4%

Vikings D 8.1%

 
sinatravolta said:
For those curious - here are the key % ownership numbers of guys playing tonight. Needless to say - lot of heavily owned guys.

Rodgers 34.1%

Grant 34.0%

Peterson 9.6%

C. Taylor 4.6%

Harvin 40.6%

Jennings 19.3%

Driver 6.5%

Rice 6.5%

Berrian 4.3%

Finley 27.8%

Shiancoe 10.4%

Lee 3.0%

Longwell 12.4%

Crosby 5.8%

Packers D 24.4%

Vikings D 8.1%
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Didn't realize it was that low. This actually has me feeling a bit better in the coming weeks.
 
Hmm...this is going to be tense tonight. I need a high scoring game no doubt.

I'm only sitting with 69.80 points, but have the following left:

Rodgers - 19.60

Peterson - 2.70

Jennings - 4.80

Sidney Rice - 5.00

Shiancoe - 0.00

Finley - 0.00

Longwell - 5.00

Packers D - 2.00

 
sinatravolta said:
For those curious - here are the key % ownership numbers of guys playing tonight. Needless to say - lot of heavily owned guys.

Rodgers 34.1%

Grant 34.0%

Peterson 9.6%

C. Taylor 4.6%

Harvin 40.6%

Jennings 19.3%

Driver 6.5%

Rice 6.5%

Berrian 4.3%

Finley 27.8%

Shiancoe 10.4%

Lee 3.0%

Longwell 12.4%

Crosby 5.8%

Packers D 24.4%

Vikings D 8.1%
Click to expand...
Player riskPackers 449

Crosby 91

Rodgers 371

Grant 351

Jackson 15

Finley 310

Lee 52

Driver 73

Jennings 137

Jones 25

Nelson 18

Vikings 135

Longwell 152

Rosenfels 2

Peterson 89

Taylor 42

Shiancoe 147

Berrian 55

Harvin 401

Rice 81

EDITED TO SAY SCRAP THIS POSTED LIST....forgot my current list has projected scores already in. I need to recalculate things with scoring as is, not as it may be. Sadly, the numbers I originally posted indicate the # of teams that will still be left in the rubble even if they hit their projected scores

Here's a look at these players with respect to ownership for currently "below the cut" teams (total owner numbers below the cut). Basically, if this number is high, many stand to move up together, driving the cut higher quickly. If the number is low, most owners are already above the line, so you can effectively gain ground easier and the cut stays low. Unfortunately I haven't figured out an easy way to tell how many of them with quickly impact their owner scores, i.e. their points threshold to add to the total.

 
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Packers 581

Crosby 112

Rodgers 698

Grant 531

Jackson 18

Finley 437

Lee 50

Driver 100

Jennings 380

Jones 36

Nelson 27

Vikings 155

Longwell 195

Rosenfels 3

Peterson 205

Taylor 70

Shiancoe 214

Berrian 66

Harvin 568

Rice 90

proper list now...

 
ctriopelle said:
sinatravolta said:
For those curious - here are the key % ownership numbers of guys playing tonight. Needless to say - lot of heavily owned guys.

Rodgers 34.1%

Grant 34.0%

Peterson 9.6%

C. Taylor 4.6%

Harvin 40.6%

Jennings 19.3%

Driver 6.5%

Rice 6.5%

Berrian 4.3%

Finley 27.8%

Shiancoe 10.4%

Lee 3.0%

Longwell 12.4%

Crosby 5.8%

Packers D 24.4%

Vikings D 8.1%
Click to expand...
Player riskPackers 449

Crosby 91

Rodgers 371

Grant 351

Jackson 15

Finley 310

Lee 52

Driver 73

Jennings 137

Jones 25

Nelson 18

Vikings 135

Longwell 152

Rosenfels 2

Peterson 89

Taylor 42

Shiancoe 147

Berrian 55

Harvin 401

Rice 81

EDITED TO SAY SCRAP THIS POSTED LIST....forgot my current list has projected scores already in. I need to recalculate things with scoring as is, not as it may be. Sadly, the numbers I originally posted indicate the # of teams that will still be left in the rubble even if they hit their projected scores

Here's a look at these players with respect to ownership for currently "below the cut" teams (total owner numbers below the cut). Basically, if this number is high, many stand to move up together, driving the cut higher quickly. If the number is low, most owners are already above the line, so you can effectively gain ground easier and the cut stays low. Unfortunately I haven't figured out an easy way to tell how many of them with quickly impact their owner scores, i.e. their points threshold to add to the total.
Click to expand...
So if your already above the projected cut and you own a "high" number player, you're more than likely going to stay above the cut?
 
If you are already above the projected cut, you don't want to see widely held players, especially widely held players on currently "out" rosters do well, unless they count for you at a low value. As long as they perform roughly at or below their projected scores from Dodds, its probably a good thing for you. Basically the news is the same for everyone, these players doing well drive up the cut value, and if you need them to help you, you're treading water, not gaining.

 
ctriopelle said:
If you are already above the projected cut, you don't want to see widely held players, especially widely held players on currently "out" rosters do well, unless they count for you at a low value. As long as they perform roughly at or below their projected scores from Dodds, its probably a good thing for you. Basically the news is the same for everyone, these players doing well drive up the cut value, and if you need them to help you, you're treading water, not gaining.
Click to expand...
So you're saying that Finley TD is gonna hurt....
 
Ahmad Rashad said:
I have both Grant and Rogers, along with Finley and GB D, but I'd much rather see the Vikes beat the Packers than survive another week, so I'm going to root against all the Packers.
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A true fan :thumbup: I'd root against my Grandma in Bingo though for another week in the contest. :unsure:
 
I posted last night that I thought I would be out if Mendenhall, LT and Sproles didn't come up big. Mendenhall did his part! Sproles didn't do much but will count for me as my backs are really hurting.

I'm thinking the Finley numbers tonight may be what keeps me above the cut line! I added my numbers last night and came up with 120 with Finley and Harvin left to play. I think I am around 135 now. Hopefully that will be enough. If not, I hope Harvin can score enough to be counted and increase the score.

 
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ctriopelle said:
If you are already above the projected cut, you don't want to see widely held players, especially widely held players on currently "out" rosters do well, unless they count for you at a low value. As long as they perform roughly at or below their projected scores from Dodds, its probably a good thing for you. Basically the news is the same for everyone, these players doing well drive up the cut value, and if you need them to help you, you're treading water, not gaining.
Click to expand...
:lmao: Just when I thought I was out. They pull me back in!Carson Palmer QB 24.50

Joe Flacco QB 24.40

Shaun Hill QB 19.50

Brian Westbrook RB 0.00

Ryan Grant RB 2.10

Rashard Mendenhall RB 32.10

Michael Bush RB 1.90

Bernard Scott RB 4.10

James Davis RB 0.00

Greg Jennings WR 2.30

DeSean Jackson WR 0.00

Vincent Jackson WR 9.60

Nate Burleson WR 7.10

Devin Thomas WR 0.00

Patrick Crayton WR 4.60

Chaz Schilens WR 0.00

Visanthe Shiancoe TE 7.60

Brent Celek TE 0.00

Jermichael Finley TE 18.70

Robbie Gould K 15.00

Shayne Graham K 6.00

Rian Lindell K 5.00

New York Jets DEF 2.00

Dallas Cowboys DEF 5.00

128.30

 
cjack said:
Hmm...this is going to be tense tonight. I need a high scoring game no doubt.I'm only sitting with 69.80 points, but have the following left:Rodgers - 19.60Peterson - 2.70Jennings - 4.80Sidney Rice - 5.00Shiancoe - 0.00Finley - 0.00Longwell - 5.00Packers D - 2.00
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Couldn't ask for a better game so far. Moved from 69.80 to over 118 in a half of football. Can only hope the second half is like the first.
 
cjack said:
Couldn't ask for a better game so far. Moved from 69.80 to over 118 in a half of football. Can only hope the second half is like the first.
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at 118 you're already fine. Latest cut approximation at end of the half is about 103 (if we stopped now).
 
One of my strategies pre-season was the tremendous value at the TE position. So I loaded up on mid-level talent and its paid off each week as my flex player. Went with 4 TE's - H Miller, K Boss, G Findlay and C Baker. Not sure this is the magic formula but its been working so far.

 
cjack said:
ctriopelle said:
cjack said:
Couldn't ask for a better game so far. Moved from 69.80 to over 118 in a half of football. Can only hope the second half is like the first.
Click to expand...
at 118 you're already fine. Latest cut approximation at end of the half is about 103 (if we stopped now).
Click to expand...
That's good to know. I figured the high scoring game might move the cut up some.
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Oh it has, probably more than I've seen in any MNF game so far. MNF moves of over 10 are rare, and we're at +13 at halftime. Of course it's not too far over the pace of 21 we predicted...
 
I think I'm on the fringe now with Deangelo and Felix out. I have Grant, Rodgers, Finley, Packers DT, and Harvin going so I've got a shot with a strong 2nd half. The Finley and Packers TD plays helped.

 
stlrams said:
One of my strategies pre-season was the tremendous value at the TE position. So I loaded up on mid-level talent and its paid off each week as my flex player. Went with 4 TE's - H Miller, K Boss, G Findlay and C Baker. Not sure this is the magic formula but its been working so far.
Click to expand...
There was a lot of value at TE this year. Rather than blow $27 on Witten, I went with John Carlson ($11), Brent Celek ($7) and Jermichael Finley ($3).
 
sinatravolta said:
Wow - according to Fantasy Star - I should be at 109.95. Should be veeery close. Come on garbage time dump off to Grant!
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Little 17-yard dump-off for 2.2 more points to take me to 112.15 if FS is correct. Will it be enough? Hard to tell. Among heavily owned guys - Rodgers, Finley were big. Harvin and Jennings didn't do much.
 
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