Official Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[ctriopelle]

Using Dodd's projections, the cut finishes at about 142. Of course, things can change a lot from that with the real scores, but as long as nobody goes crazy that's about what we can expect.

 

[Das Boot]

0 pts from my Ks today (Carpenter on bye, Bironas... )

And with Romo on bye...

Leinart with .9 pts damn near outscores Sanchez who contributed 1.55 pts to my score today.

 

[nashua55]

0 pts from my Ks today (Carpenter on bye, Bironas... )And with Romo on bye...Leinart with .9 pts damn near outscores Sanchez who contributed 1.55 pts to my score today.

It sucks. I also have Romo, Sanchez and Leinart as my QB's. It was not a good time for Sanchez to lay an egg with Romo on a bye along with my money TE D. Clark. Luckily I had Moss, Fitz, and Z. Miller. Sitting in the low 150's, I think I might live another day. Good luck.

 

[Das Boot]

0 pts from my Ks today (Carpenter on bye, Bironas... )And with Romo on bye...Leinart with .9 pts damn near outscores Sanchez who contributed 1.55 pts to my score today.

It sucks. I also have Romo, Sanchez and Leinart as my QB's. It was not a good time for Sanchez to lay an egg with Romo on a bye along with my money TE D. Clark. Luckily I had Moss, Fitz, and Z. Miller. Sitting in the low 150's, I think I might live another day. Good luck.

Nice recovery it's tough to survive with 0 pts essentially from the QB position.Not to mention on a high scoring week in the contest.I patched together pts from all over the place to get to 146... I'm hoping Olsen contributes some pts in the Bears game... so far no dice though. He's been a real disappointment for being my #1 TE pick.Looks like rally cap time.

 

[John Mamula]

Sitting at 133 with the Broncos D (-6.00) and Knowshon (-4.10).

Will be tight.

 

[drm1125]

I'm sitting at 151.25 with only Buckhalter left with the chance to contribute. I hope there's no more crazy scoring left!

 

[nashua55]

0 pts from my Ks today (Carpenter on bye, Bironas... )And with Romo on bye...Leinart with .9 pts damn near outscores Sanchez who contributed 1.55 pts to my score today.

It sucks. I also have Romo, Sanchez and Leinart as my QB's. It was not a good time for Sanchez to lay an egg with Romo on a bye along with my money TE D. Clark. Luckily I had Moss, Fitz, and Z. Miller. Sitting in the low 150's, I think I might live another day. Good luck.

Nice recovery it's tough to survive with 0 pts essentially from the QB position.Not to mention on a high scoring week in the contest.I patched together pts from all over the place to get to 146... I'm hoping Olsen contributes some pts in the Bears game... so far no dice though. He's been a real disappointment for being my #1 TE pick.Looks like rally cap time.

Sanchez was pathetic. What makes it worse, was every other freaking QB had a lights out performance. I think you should be alright , Olsen should get you 10pts. Your recovery was pretty impressive also. All I know is the Romo, Sanchez , Leinart experiment has not worked too well. Romo is too hit or miss. In all honesty, I expected Warner to be out with injury by week 6.

 

[jon_mx]

0 pts from my Ks today (Carpenter on bye, Bironas... )And with Romo on bye...Leinart with .9 pts damn near outscores Sanchez who contributed 1.55 pts to my score today.

It sucks. I also have Romo, Sanchez and Leinart as my QB's. It was not a good time for Sanchez to lay an egg with Romo on a bye along with my money TE D. Clark. Luckily I had Moss, Fitz, and Z. Miller. Sitting in the low 150's, I think I might live another day. Good luck.

Nice recovery it's tough to survive with 0 pts essentially from the QB position.Not to mention on a high scoring week in the contest.I patched together pts from all over the place to get to 146... I'm hoping Olsen contributes some pts in the Bears game... so far no dice though. He's been a real disappointment for being my #1 TE pick.Looks like rally cap time.

I am at 233.90 points....0.90 points from QB so far.

 

[OU#1]

Gonna be close for me this week

My team is phony though...won't last much longer anyways.

 

[CrossEyed]

Using Dodd's projections, the cut finishes at about 142. Of course, things can change a lot from that with the real scores, but as long as nobody goes crazy that's about what we can expect.

I'm at 142.15 Still have VJax (-3) to go on Monday. Sure hope Denver's D focuses on Gates.

 

[belljr]

Damn it missed by 9 last week and put up an absolute monster this week

 

[ctriopelle]

Not fully updated, but we are between 133-134 right now. Still haven't corrected for neg yards (there were a lot today), and it looks like there are still a Cutler pass or 2 to get thrown in.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Absolutely. I agree. Though I'd still argue that taking any of the top five guys at any position maximizes your risk.

Competing against 13,000 others on an equal basis is not the time to be risk-averse.

I think your teams are less unique if you pick two top RBs than if you chop up that money into four lesser RBs.

 

[BaBastage]

<snip>OK, so I dumped a bunch of data and ran some regressions......<snipped the rest of the post too for brevity - go re-read it if you're interested.>

Thank you Doug.

 

[joffer]

this team desperately needs Anthony Gonzalez back

 

[proninja]

Having big weeks in this format is cool, but in a way it's kind of annoying, you feel like you're wasting points.

 

[QuizGuy66]

And now for QG's post of the week

Both my official week-1 eliminated team and my theoretical wish I would've done it because the cold calculated entry would still be in it team BOTH finished with over 2-bills this week.



Not to add to the Turk's already formidable work load but it would be interesting to see the distribution of eliminated teams by number of players on bye this week. Those who heavily invested in week 6 bye players are gonna get clobbered even more-so than a typical week I would think.

-QG

 

[Doug Drinen]

Pre-MNF sim.

 

[apalmer]

And now for QG's post of the week Both my official week-1 eliminated team and my theoretical wish I would've done it because the cold calculated entry would still be in it team BOTH finished with over 2-bills this week.Not to add to the Turk's already formidable work load but it would be interesting to see the distribution of eliminated teams by number of players on bye this week. Those who heavily invested in week 6 bye players are gonna get clobbered even more-so than a typical week I would think.-QG

I'll join the club. Scored over 155 each fo the first 3 weeks, eliminated week 4 when my entire team decided that if Deangelo Williams didn't have to play, neither did they. Back up to 160 points last week and almost 190 this week. I hate this contest.

 

[jon_mx]

And now for QG's post of the week Both my official week-1 eliminated team and my theoretical wish I would've done it because the cold calculated entry would still be in it team BOTH finished with over 2-bills this week.Not to add to the Turk's already formidable work load but it would be interesting to see the distribution of eliminated teams by number of players on bye this week. Those who heavily invested in week 6 bye players are gonna get clobbered even more-so than a typical week I would think.-QG

I'll join the club. Scored over 155 each fo the first 3 weeks, eliminated week 4 when my entire team decided that if Deangelo Williams didn't have to play, neither did they. Back up to 160 points last week and almost 190 this week. I hate this contest.

That is what makes this contest so cool. So much to think about, but even the best laid plans can blow up with one bad week.

 

[smackdaddies]

And now for QG's post of the week Both my official week-1 eliminated team and my theoretical wish I would've done it because the cold calculated entry would still be in it team BOTH finished with over 2-bills this week.Not to add to the Turk's already formidable work load but it would be interesting to see the distribution of eliminated teams by number of players on bye this week. Those who heavily invested in week 6 bye players are gonna get clobbered even more-so than a typical week I would think.-QG

I'll join the club. Scored over 155 each fo the first 3 weeks, eliminated week 4 when my entire team decided that if Deangelo Williams didn't have to play, neither did they. Back up to 160 points last week and almost 190 this week. I hate this contest.

That's the worst part about Fantasy Star live scoring - last year I made the playoffs (except for the fact week 8 blew me out)I got to see my team "almost" march to the playoffs

 

[Balance]

i keep gunning through this thing somehow with mcnabb stafford and leftwich as my qb's...

 

[Lupe]

Missing Witten this week and only had Brady at TE .. but .... 240 pts.

thanks Schaub, Rice, Welker, Colston, Ward, Driver. #30 overall, my highest ever!

 

[ScottyFargo]

Pre-MNF sim.

I can't believe I started the week with a 40% chance to stick around and now going into MNF I am at 100%. Ray and Sidney Rice, here's to you.

 

[GloryDaze]

Whew, looks like I made it through my toughest bye week. Hopefully a lot of the other Peyton owners went down the tube.

 

[PatrickT]

I didn't think I had a shot to make yesterday's projected cut of 130ish, but I did. And the projected cut moved up to 141. With only Prater -9 to go, looks like an early exit for me. A bit of bad injury luck plus poor selections at RB and WR did me in.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

Not a knock, because I love the tool, but here's what makes me chuckle with the Sim:

23 Teams - all with no players going on MNF - all with 141 pts

% Survival rating ranges from 39.5% to 61.8%

Team 110629 | 61.8 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 100001 | 60.3 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 105226 | 59.7 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 111459 | 57.8 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 106958 | 54.6 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 108158 | 54.2 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 101818 | 52.7 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 112282 | 52.3 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 106618 | 51.5 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 107083 | 51.1 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 104384 | 50.9 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 109310 | 50.6 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 103746 | 49.2 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 112539 | 47.7 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 108539 | 46.6 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 105290 | 46.3 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 108248 | 45.4 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 109151 | 45.2 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 111028 | 43.8 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 100110 | 42.6 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 108607 | 42.3 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 108960 | 40.4 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

Team 108286 | 39.5 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141 | 141

If I were Team #108286, I would demand a re-Sim!

 

[jon_mx]

Not a knock, because I love the tool, but here's what makes me chuckle with the Sim:23 Teams - all with no players going on MNF - all with 141 pts% Survival rating ranges from 39.5% to 61.8%

The chart just rounds or maybe truncates their scores, so they really don't have the exact same score. So someone with 141.5 has the 61% chance and someone with 140.5 has the 39% chance. There is a reasonably good chance the cutoff line will be in that range.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

Not a knock, because I love the tool, but here's what makes me chuckle with the Sim:23 Teams - all with no players going on MNF - all with 141 pts% Survival rating ranges from 39.5% to 61.8%

The chart just rounds or maybe truncates their scores, so they really don't have the exact same score. So someone with 141.5 has the 61% chance and someone with 140.5 has the 39% chance. There is a reasonably good chance the cutoff line will be in that range.

OK - now you're just raining on my good time over morning coffee. Now I have to go check the 23 rosters to see if any are identical or have identical scores.Wait, maybe I should just get to work answering those 50 emails in my inbox...

 

[QuizGuy66]

Not a knock, because I love the tool, but here's what makes me chuckle with the Sim:23 Teams - all with no players going on MNF - all with 141 pts% Survival rating ranges from 39.5% to 61.8%

The chart just rounds or maybe truncates their scores, so they really don't have the exact same score. So someone with 141.5 has the 61% chance and someone with 140.5 has the 39% chance. There is a reasonably good chance the cutoff line will be in that range.

OK - now you're just raining on my good time over morning coffee. Now I have to go check the 23 rosters to see if any are identical or have identical scores.Wait, maybe I should just get to work answering those 50 emails in my inbox...

The v1a9ra adds can wait for your reply This is serious business! -QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

To help you out, the quick answer is "no" there is an issue.

The increments, even if brought down to .05 level, means there's only 20 possible scores that would round to 141.

There are 23 people in the tie.

Ergo, at least 4 of them should have the same exact chance.

-QG

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

Not a knock, because I love the tool, but here's what makes me chuckle with the Sim:23 Teams - all with no players going on MNF - all with 141 pts% Survival rating ranges from 39.5% to 61.8%

The chart just rounds or maybe truncates their scores, so they really don't have the exact same score. So someone with 141.5 has the 61% chance and someone with 140.5 has the 39% chance. There is a reasonably good chance the cutoff line will be in that range.

OK - now you're just raining on my good time over morning coffee. Now I have to go check the 23 rosters to see if any are identical or have identical scores.Wait, maybe I should just get to work answering those 50 emails in my inbox...

The v1a9ra adds can wait for your reply This is serious business! -QG

No - those emails are blocked by work filters.Thank goodness the 36 emails from MFL & Footballguys are not blocked.

 

[sinatravolta]

And now for QG's post of the week Both my official week-1 eliminated team and my theoretical wish I would've done it because the cold calculated entry would still be in it team BOTH finished with over 2-bills this week.Not to add to the Turk's already formidable work load but it would be interesting to see the distribution of eliminated teams by number of players on bye this week. Those who heavily invested in week 6 bye players are gonna get clobbered even more-so than a typical week I would think.-QG

I'll join the club. Scored over 155 each fo the first 3 weeks, eliminated week 4 when my entire team decided that if Deangelo Williams didn't have to play, neither did they. Back up to 160 points last week and almost 190 this week. I hate this contest.

apalmer - I'm in the same boat. Missed the cut by 1.65 in week 4 and would have been worth 183.75 last week and then 169.9 this week (without a QB with Peyton on a bye). Would also have been past all my big player byes. Henry $12, Z Miller $12 and Bradshaw $8 are my biggest guys left with byes. Peyton, Williams, Grant, R White, Colston, J Morgan, Olsen all through (my 7 most expensive players). Also this week was the first one that worked at TE like I had imagined with both Olsen and Zach Miller having big games and therefore counting as my flex.

 

[jon_mx]

To help you out, the quick answer is "no" there is an issue.The increments, even if brought down to .05 level, means there's only 20 possible scores that would round to 141.There are 23 people in the tie.Ergo, at least 4 of them should have the same exact chance.-QG

My guess is that 5 pairs have identical scores and one group of 4 with identical scores.....all the teams within .4 percent or less of each other. The program must not allow for ties like the contest does, and probably by first come first serve basis assumes that team goes on and the other is eliminated.

 

[ctriopelle]

To help you out, the quick answer is "no" there is an issue.The increments, even if brought down to .05 level, means there's only 20 possible scores that would round to 141.There are 23 people in the tie.Ergo, at least 4 of them should have the same exact chance.-QG

My guess is that 5 pairs have identical scores and one group of 4 with identical scores.....all the teams within .4 percent or less of each other. The program must not allow for ties like the contest does, and probably by first come first serve basis assumes that team goes on and the other is eliminated.

I'd tend to agree with this take, since it would be easiest just to count the top 5000 teams without ties. Some of these teams are in fact tied, with no opportunity for additional scoring. Moral of the story is that you definitely want over 141 if you want to feel comfortable advancing tonight!Anyone else notice that the first entry into the contest this year is right on this cut line (100001)? Maybe it isn't a good thing to be proactive in this contest!

 

[PatsChowder]

It's weeks like this one that I almost wish Brady didn't have the performance he did. I'd have still made the cut with Sanchez's 1.55 performance. I have a very bad feeling when he goes on the bye, although I did my best to avoid any conflicts with him at all.

Any other Brady owners worried about that?

 

[proninja]

It's weeks like this one that I almost wish Brady didn't have the performance he did. I'd have still made the cut with Sanchez's 1.55 performance. I have a very bad feeling when he goes on the bye, although I did my best to avoid any conflicts with him at all.Any other Brady owners worried about that?

Brady owner here, my only other QB is Flacco. Denver wasn't supposed to be a stout defense in the preseason. Week 8 has been the week I'm eyeing all season. I've got Brady, Moss, Ocho, Winslow, Henry on bye that week. I'm going to need to get a little lucky and have a couple good games from the rest of my team that week.

 

[meeka]

I can't believe I am moving on. Did not think I would survive A. Gonzo's bye week.

 

[redaddy25]

Just-for-fun power ratings

Wow... Guess I should follow this thread more often, ranked #19 in the latest Power Rankings. Of course, now that I saw this there is no where to go but down

 

[Das Boot]

I wish I had a $1 Slaton on my roster like last year.

Jamaal Charles for $7 this year...

 

[John Mamula]

Pre-MNF sim.

Got about a 73% chance to survive. I'll take it.

 

[gianmarco]

I'm gonna need a LOT of help next week. My final big challenge in terms of byes:

K. Smith

R. Rice

Royal

Mason

Carlson

:X

 

[Balco]

I am in big trouble next week. Looking at my roster, it will take a miracle for me to advance.:

QB - Drew Brees - 35

QB - Matt Hasselbeck - 17 - BYE

QB - Brady Quinn - 9 -doesn't start

Need Brees to have a game like weeks 1,2,3, and not 4 and 5.

RB - Ray Rice - 21 BYE

RB - Willie Parker - 16

RB - LenDale White - 12 BYE

RB - Leon Washington - 12

RB - Michael Bush - 6

RB - Laurence Maroney - 4

RB - Correll Buckhalter - 2 BYE

Uh Oh. This would be a great time for Laurence Maroney to have a big game. Parker is now a role player, and Bush is in a time share at best with Fargas, Washington has been good when he plays, but he is stuck behind Jones. I could be in big trouble here.

WR - Anquan Boldin - 31

WR - Chad Ochocinco - 27

WR - Derrick Mason - 9 BYE

WR - Mark Bradley - 7

WR - Nate Burleson - 5 BYE

WR - Chaz Schilens - 3

WR - Laurent Robinson - 2 Out for year

Uh Oh part II. Boldin has a high ankle sprain to boot. Who knows if Schilens will play and Bradley is atrocious. I will be lucky to have 3 receivers playing.

TE - Greg Olsen - 15

TE - Jeremy Shockey - 9

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

If there ever was a time for these guys to step up, now would be great. Would love to get a solid performance out of two so I could use one as a flex.

PK - Phil Dawson - 1 injured

PK - Dan Carpenter - 1

Hopefully Carpenter can get me a 10 point day. Every little bit counts.

TD - Seattle Seahawks - 2 BYE

TD - Cleveland Browns - 1

Is it too much to expect the Browns to have another great day? Probably.

 

[Project Mayhem]

Pretty sure I am toast, sitting at 130.80 with only Prater left tonight.

 

[eaglezzz]

I have a 10.5 chance of making it LOL

I am sitting at 124.05 points right now with LT (-12.9), and Eddie Royal (-3.2) left to go. If Royal has a 10 for 90 game like last week I might have a chance. I don't think LT can top the -12.9 points so I doubt he will be much help.

It will definitly make it a fun game to watch tonight. Good Luck everyone and lets all hope to be still playing in week 7!

 

[jon_mx]

99.1% looks good to me. As for the "immunity" idea... I just cannot get on board with that at all. It's the second time I have seen someone propose something along those lines. The lack of immunity is what makes this game great. You have to attempt to build a roster that plays well every single week. Byes and injury prone players are taken into account. Yes, any of us could have a downer week and our studs could choke a week away, but that's all part of the game.Currently, there is no margin for error... and that's what makes it exciting.

Immunity Sucks. That is part of what makes this contest, knowing your team has to perform every week. I think the flexibility they added in with rosters was really added to the contest. The contest is great how it is. It can be tweaked, but I wouldn't change it too much.

 

[jon_mx]

If it plays out like the sim predicts, I could subtract my last weeks score and still make the cut...

 

[bonesman]

40% chance the Turk ends the fun for me. (though I'm guessing it's alot higher than that since I have no players going tonight)

Adios

 

[jon_mx]

40% chance the Turk ends the fun for me. (though I'm guessing it's alot higher than that since I have no players going tonight)Adios

Maybe the final score will be 16-7. 40% chance is better than nothing.

 

[vandyt]

217 with VJAX looking to beat Hester's game. Wish I could save some of those points for week 10.