Official Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[Sack-Religious]

Oof. 31.9% chance of survival, 999 UQ rating and a power ranking of 1130. I'm not long for this contest.

Then again, this has been my best showing yet, so I can't really complain.

 

[Cantonese32]

Happy Thanksgiving all!

I'd like to take this time to whole-heartedly thank all those at FBGs that worked so hard to put this contest on, especially Doug for the weekly reports. Also, I want to thank those subscribers, especially ctriopelle, that provide their insight and info to assist in making this a top-flight contest...it's clearly a labor of love and I appreciate your efforts! Finally, thank you to OC and FantasyStar for providing the website that tracks our teams provides the virtual real-time stats....what a great value!

While I remain optimistic, the fact that my team (101689) has a Uniqueness value of 1001/1006, my expectations of making the Big Bucks are appropriately tempered. But with that said, if I do continue to move on....Here's hoping for a Christmas Miracle!!

Good luck to all that remain!

 

[Matt Waldman]

This is the second year I have participated in this contest and the first I have remained alive for anything longer than 5-6 weeks. My team still has a fighting chance to stick around for another week or two, but I'm not holding my breath. Good luck to all of you who survived this long (and nice job).

 

[LHUCKS]

44% chance to get to the final 500...I'll take it.

Go Felix Jones and J. Finley!!

 

[smackdaddies]

ARod better pick it up in the second half if I am going to win. Pretty sure most people will need 30pt qb scores to advance

 

[smackdaddies]

558 Rodgers Owners are content once again their pick, but not as happy as the 28 Rodgers/Driver owners, but even less happy than than 16 people who own Rodgers/Driver/GB D

Unfortunately, I have the Rodgers, KSmith/GB D combo (along with 21 others)

 

[LHUCKS]

Run Felix Run!!

 

[drm1125]

Anybody get the fantasy star to work? It's all messed up for me.

 

[Organized Chaos]

Anybody get the fantasy star to work? It's all messed up for me.

I fixed it... I'm sorry I was out with the family all day and forgot to set it to update for the early games... I just manually updated it and the late game will run as usual.

 

[steelerfeever]

Probably my 5th year doing this. And by far my best showing. And I don't really like my roster... no depth considering all the injuries and consistent zero's 5-6 guys throw up.

Thanks to those of you who are much smarter than me with putting together Uniqueness Quotients, Power Rankings, and Survival predictions. Neat stuff.

I'm also thankful for Rodgers and the GB Defense today.

QB - Aaron Rodgers - 27

QB - Mark Sanchez - 9

QB - Byron Leftwich - 4

RB - Frank Gore - 43

RB - Ryan Grant - 24

RB - Ray Rice - 21

RB - James Davis - 2

RB - Edgerrin James - 1

RB - Chris Brown - 1

WR - Wes Welker - 33

WR - Anthony Gonzalez - 26

WR - Kevin Walter - 14

WR - Pierre Garcon - 3

WR - Chaz Schilens - 3

WR - David Clowney - 2

WR - Laurent Robinson - 2

TE - Dallas Clark - 18

TE - Jermichael Finley - 3

PK - Olindo Mare - 1

PK - Jay Feely - 1

PK - Dan Carpenter - 1

TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - 7

TD - Green Bay Packers - 3

TD - New Orleans Saints - 1

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

I'm also thankful for Rodgers and the GB Defense today.

Id be worried if I wasnt an owner of one of those, given their ownership percentages. Rodgers is on 55.5% of teams, GB on 39.3%.53.9 points from 2 roster spots is a good start to the week.

 

[Das Boot]

I'm also thankful for Rodgers and the GB Defense today.

Id be worried if I wasnt an owner of one of those, given their ownership percentages. Rodgers is on 55.5% of teams, GB on 39.3%.53.9 points from 2 roster spots is a good start to the week.

Very true... if DD runs another simulation before Sunday, the survival %s will change dramatically based on whether you own Rodgers or not.I'm glad Romo Bright and Dark had one of his good days today, but I still am 8 pts behind the QB slot of half the teams that have Rodgers.

 

[drm1125]

I wonder if we'll get another sim after the thursday's games? The sim hated my team this week, had me way down at the bottom, like 990ish. But I have Rodgers and F. Jones and am wondering if they have impoved my chances?

 

[Dolfan]

Prelim sim (only three teams above 80%!)

Just-for-fun power rankings

Interesting, my UQ is the exact same as my power rank -- 463... What are the odds of that..Will the Sim get updated after yesterday's games? Curious to see if I go up or down much after yesterday's games... I feel like I probably went down a little bit from 52.7%..

 

[The_Hoser]

According to the sim I was ranked 82nd this week with a 68.3% chance of getting through, and Rodgers and the GB D came through for me. Still, my WRs are my worst bunch, and I'm going to need some big help from Cotchery, Colston and ADP to go through.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Sim updated through Thursday games

Your biggest movers are:

This entry, which is one of two remaining with Rodgers, Driver, Prater, and the Packers' D. It moved from 29% to 84%.

and in the other direction...

This entry drops from 56% to 12%. Its only healthy RBs are Jacobs, Grant, and M Bush.

 

[Twilight]

Sim updated through Thursday games

Your biggest movers are:

This entry, which is one of two remaining with Rodgers, Driver, Prater, and the Packers' D. It moved from 29% to 84%.

and in the other direction...

This entry drops from 56% to 12%. Its only healthy RBs are Jacobs, Grant, and M Bush.

Now above 50% and moved to #414 from the 700's.

 

[The_Hoser]

Sim updated through Thursday games

Your biggest movers are:

This entry, which is one of two remaining with Rodgers, Driver, Prater, and the Packers' D. It moved from 29% to 84%.

and in the other direction...

This entry drops from 56% to 12%. Its only healthy RBs are Jacobs, Grant, and M Bush.

My chances increased a few percent but I dropped from 82nd to 172nd. Hey, as long as I sneak through ...

 

[smackdaddies]

Sim updated through Thursday games

Your biggest movers are:

This entry, which is one of two remaining with Rodgers, Driver, Prater, and the Packers' D. It moved from 29% to 84%.

and in the other direction...

This entry drops from 56% to 12%. Its only healthy RBs are Jacobs, Grant, and M Bush.

Moved from 45% to 65% - Thank you Rodgers, Packer D/ST and Witten !

 

[drm1125]

Well, big days by Rodgers and F. Jones did nothing to help my chances to make it through this week. Looks like I need a minor miracle to make it past this week!

 

[RenegadeGM]

Went from 38% to 71% thanks to Rodgers, F. Jones and the Pack D (and to a much lesser extent, Finley, and no thanks to Crayton).

Still don't think I have a chance to win, but the final 500 sounds good, if I can get there.

 

[smackdaddies]

Now I am happy that Big Ben is out - 38 owners left (plus the impact on Holmes, Miller and Ward, as well as the rb)

I have never actually wanted players to be out, but getting this far has turned me EVIL EVIL EVIL

I can live with that.

 

[Bankerguy]

23% I think this is my week.

Rothlisberger likely out. I need Hassleback to tear up St Louis and also get strong games from Welker/Meachem/Henderson/Celek/McCoy/Slaton.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Man, even with Rodgers, I dropped by about 10 percentage points.

Thanks for nothing Grant and Finley.

Looks like I need to call on my young guns for more help than normal this week.

 

[John Windle]

Elimination rates this week.

20 - 44.6%

21 - 46.5%

22 - 43.9%

23 - 35.7%

24 - 28.6%

24-man rosters were more than 3x as likely to make the final 1000 than 20-man rosters, and almost twice as likely to do it as 23-man rosters. More is better.

I really don't understand how anyone could think it is better to have a smaller roster; assuming every NFL player in the game has the same risk of being injured or not playing (not true, this is for sake of argument), you want spread the risk out as much as possible. I don't think there can be any doubt that, in terms of the best chance of survivability, you need as large a roster as possible. Certainly, where you spend your money can be debated- but I don't think a rational argument can be made to justify a smaller roster given the nature of this contest.

This was my first year and I went with a 20 team roster thinking you wanted to get the best players for your money and increasing your roster size would dilute your talent. We'll chalk that up to a lesson learned as very quickly I started seeing the value in spreading the risk and the largest possible roster size providing opportunities for success. Next year I'll be going with 24... but I made it to Week 11 with just 20. So it was a fun lesson learned. Team 108287

 

[The_Hoser]

Peterson out with illness, questionable for Sunday

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

[Mapmaker]

Holding steady after Thursday ... 52.4% ... but we all know that can change in the blink of an eye

Good Luck to all this week's warriors!!

 

[amit-nfl]

well i was droped out last weekend, but i want to wish luck to all contesters that remains

suprise that that this year roster team got so far with the inj's and some mistakes but proud to be in the final 1400-1500 place.

ill try to be better next year

 

[smackdaddies]

Elimination rates this week.

20 - 44.6%

21 - 46.5%

22 - 43.9%

23 - 35.7%

24 - 28.6%

24-man rosters were more than 3x as likely to make the final 1000 than 20-man rosters, and almost twice as likely to do it as 23-man rosters. More is better.

I really don't understand how anyone could think it is better to have a smaller roster; assuming every NFL player in the game has the same risk of being injured or not playing (not true, this is for sake of argument), you want spread the risk out as much as possible. I don't think there can be any doubt that, in terms of the best chance of survivability, you need as large a roster as possible. Certainly, where you spend your money can be debated- but I don't think a rational argument can be made to justify a smaller roster given the nature of this contest.

This was my first year and I went with a 20 team roster thinking you wanted to get the best players for your money and increasing your roster size would dilute your talent. We'll chalk that up to a lesson learned as very quickly I started seeing the value in spreading the risk and the largest possible roster size providing opportunities for success. Next year I'll be going with 24... but I made it to Week 11 with just 20. So it was a fun lesson learned. Team 108287

Just because 24 is the optimum number this year doesn't make it so next.It all depends on the cost on a per player basis - if they expand the roster, or if they have fewer low cost players or...

There have always been changes to the structure of the contest - part of what makes it fun - refiguring things out each and every year

 

[QuizGuy66]

Well finally calculated my theoretical path not taken entry. Woulda made the cut by 1.05

Btw congrats to the skillful 1000 who have it this far!!!

-QG

 

[Doug Drinen]

Final sim, includes Thursday's actuals and the final Sunday projections.

 

[LHUCKS]

Team LHUCKS is done...poor performances all the way around.

Good luck the rest of the way fellas.

 

[redaddy25]

Any updates on a projected cut line? Tough week for me at RB, only 2 active guys and DWill was one of them. DalClark bailed me out though and still gives me hope.

 

[HateDaBears]

DIED last week by less than .5 a point Me sad

 

[Mister CIA]

Lots of "ok" scores put up by my players so far. Sitting at 135 (Peyton plus 7 players in the 11-15 range). Hoping for huge day from Ray Rice, Chris Wells , Derrick Mason, Percy Harvin and Greg Olsen. Also hoping that the Pittsburgh defense will do something special with QB#3 starting.

 

[The Iguana]

things are looking a little bleak... Ryan getting hurt really hurts me. need chris johnson to pick it up anytime now and a couple of TDs from flacco to mason would be sweet tonight.

 

[The Iguana]

also, fred jackson the only reason I have any hope right now for this week.

 

[Chainz]

also, fred jackson the only reason I have any hope right now for this week.

Same here. Not many Jackson owners left. But I need a big game out of Mason (and a few more TDs from Harvin), as my WRs blow this week (Jennings, #85, Schliens, Nicks)Currently at 136.5 points.

 

[The Iguana]

the TD by V Davis helps. Another 20+ point week out of him would be very sweet. My WRs have been a huge boom all year but are very pedistrian so far this week. Desean and Wayne combining for only 23 hurts.... A LOT.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Clark, Harvin, MINN defense, Longwell and Britt are taking umbrage to my 47.5% survival projection.

Hopefully my big guns will be as PO'd.

 

[smackdaddies]

should be pretty interesting cut line - highly dependent on Monday night. So far the score should be reasonably low I would think - 160?

 

[The Iguana]

freakin' sweet! 85 yard TD for johnson gives me hope!

 

[Das Boot]

Ctriopelle - do you have an updated cut line estimate?

 

[Chainz]

Current Cutoff: 143,80

Projected Cutoff: 170,00

I'm at 169 with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, Pitt D#, Ravens D# still going. Think this will work out.

 

[Bankerguy]

I'm so toast...been fun. Top 1000 nothing to sneeze at.

 

[radballs]

Current Cutoff: 143,80Projected Cutoff: 170,00I'm at 169 with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, Pitt D#, Ravens D# still going. Think this will work out.

So, the projected is expected to move over 26 points north in just two games? Wow. Gonna need a miracle from the Saints D.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Clark, Harvin, MINN defense, Longwell and Britt are taking umbrage to my 47.5% survival projection.Hopefully my big guns will be as PO'd.

Nice games by all of these guys above. Have Moss, Colston, Maroney and Baker ( ) yet to play.Hopefully its enough to get through to the final 500.

 

[scientist]

With Kevin Smith and Felix Jones as my two scoring RBs, I need 17 from either Moss or Meachem Monday night to meet the 170 projected cutoff.

Team 110329

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

Current Cutoff: 143,80Projected Cutoff: 170,00

So, the projected is expected to move over 26 points north in just two games? Wow. Gonna need a miracle from the Saints D.

Not exactly. Im pretty sure the 170 came from DD's sim and the 143 is ctripolle's number from the actual games. ctripolle will have to check in to let us know if the 170 is expected to hold up.

 

[redaddy25]

Current Cutoff: 143,80Projected Cutoff: 170,00

So, the projected is expected to move over 26 points north in just two games? Wow. Gonna need a miracle from the Saints D.

Not exactly. Im pretty sure the 170 came from DD's sim and the 143 is ctripolle's number from the actual games. ctripolle will have to check in to let us know if the 170 is expected to hold up.

The previous cut was 167, I believe the 170 is the updated cutoff.