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193 and moving on. Hoping to lose a plethora of Brady owners to make him more unique. Only 107 of us left heading into week 11.

 
ctriopelle said:
157.85, Bironas on the board!Sorry jon_mx, If I make it I think you may not...
Click to expand...
I have no chance. I would have to hope for a 4th quarter in which zero first downs are made. I am guessing that last pass did me in..
 
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jon_mx said:
ctriopelle said:
157.85, Bironas on the board!Sorry jon_mx, If I make it I think you may not...
Click to expand...
I have no chance. I would have to hope for a 4th quarter in which zero first downs are made. I am guessing that last pass did me in..
Click to expand...
not sure what play did it, but after the field goal the line passed you. Good run though, making it to week 11 is an accomplishment. Making it past this week requires some breaks, as the cuts get to be a little tough.
 
ctriopelle said:
jon_mx said:
ctriopelle said:
157.85, Bironas on the board!Sorry jon_mx, If I make it I think you may not...
Click to expand...
I have no chance. I would have to hope for a 4th quarter in which zero first downs are made. I am guessing that last pass did me in..
Click to expand...
not sure what play did it, but after the field goal the line passed you. Good run though, making it to week 11 is an accomplishment. Making it past this week requires some breaks, as the cuts get to be a little tough.
Click to expand...
Rivers was my downfall...I had it made, but then SD threw like one pass in the second half, and Randy Moss didn't do squat in the second half either. Good luck to everyone....Great contest...
 
Ain't found a way to kill me yet

Eyes burn with stinging sweat

Seems every path leads me to nowhere

Wife and kids household pet

Army green was no safe bet

The bullets scream to me from somewhere

Here they come to snuff the rooster, aww yeah, hey yeah

Yeah here come the rooster, yeah

You know he ain't gonna die

No, no, no, ya know he ain't gonna die

Walkin' tall machine gun man

They spit on me in my home land

Gloria sent me pictures of my boy

Got my pills 'gainst mosquito death

My Buddy's breathin' his dyin' breath

Oh god please won't you help me make it through

Here they come to snuff the rooster, aww yeah

Yeah here come the rooster, yeah

You know he ain't gonna die

No, no, no ya know he ain't gonna die

 
159.5 is where I'll leave it. Could be as low as 159.4 or as high as 159.6.

Got lucky and back in the to the final 1000 here. I know its a waste to have good weeks now, but I'd rather avoid the MNF nailbiters...

 
I've made it to the final 1000. Why does the uniqueness of a team matter? Won't it be teams sleepers/surpriseing players that will make the difference? The $2 surprising player? :blackdot:

 
drm1125 said:
I've made it to the final 1000. Why does the uniqueness of a team matter? Won't it be teams sleepers/surpriseing players that will make the difference? The $2 surprising player? :confused:
Click to expand...
not many $2 surprises happen, since good $2 players usually end up on a bunch of rosters. by the end, many players are common to everyone, so you typically need a fairly high caliber player that not many folks have. At the end of the day, you need both good player performances and some unique ones to finish at the top of the heap.
 
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ctriopelle said:
drm1125 said:
I've made it to the final 1000. Why does the uniqueness of a team matter? Won't it be teams sleepers/surpriseing players that will make the difference? The $2 surprising player? :confused:
Click to expand...
not many $2 surprises happen, since good $2 players usually end up on a bunch of rosters. by the end, many players are common to everyone, so you typically need a fairly high caliber player that not many folks have. At the end of the day, you need both good player performances and some unique ones to finish at the top of the heap.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I'd been wondering about it, but didn't think I'd make it this far. :thumbup:
 
162.60 this week, enough to fight one more battle...

Down to 16 players from a 24 man roster, lost 5 to IR, 2 to the Turk and 1 to the bench, (Leftwich)...only 2 RBs left and not doing good at TE with Carlson being kept in to block...

That's a big burden for my WRs to carry, but if I'm going to advance 2 more weeks, I need them to show up BIG...

This is a great contest, a couple of years ago I finished around #35, but I'm going to need a lot of luck to make it to 250 this time...

CT, thanks for everything you do and congrats on advancing this week...hopefully we'll advance 2 more times...lol.....

 
Week 11

Updated percent ownership (as has been pointed out, there is some sort of bug in that table on the right, but I think the pct own stats are OK)

Querier

Simulator report (based on the Wednesday projections)

Code: 
95--99	 2	 2   100.090--94	16	15	93.885--89	59	45	76.380--84   139   117	84.275--79   156   116	74.470--74   167   113	67.765--69   209   139	66.560--64   201   131	65.255--59   188   111	59.050--54   138	79	57.245--49   106	53	50.040--44	87	35	40.235--39	53	19	35.830--34	43	19	44.225--29	18	 6	33.320--24	12	 3	25.015--19	10	 2	20.010--14	 2	 1	50.0 5-- 9	 3	 0	 0.0 0-- 4	 4	 0	 0.0
Simulator report (based on the after-thursday-night run)
Code: 
95--99	 7	 7   100.090--94	24	24   100.085--89	64	50	78.180--84   117	98	83.875--79   133   101	75.970--74   200   134	67.065--69   206   147	71.460--64   210   128	61.055--59   172   106	61.650--54   137	78	56.945--49   110	48	43.640--44	89	41	46.135--39	59	22	37.330--34	31	11	35.525--29	19	 3	15.820--24	18	 5	27.815--19	 9	 3	33.310--14	 4	 0	 0.0 5-- 9	 4	 0	 0.0
Roster size report
Code: 
+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| roster_size | number | alive | pct_alive |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+|		  20 |   5181 |   225 |	0.0434 ||		  21 |   2032 |   106 |	0.0522 ||		  22 |   1445 |   115 |	0.0796 ||		  23 |   1291 |   108 |	0.0837 ||		  24 |   3328 |   452 |	0.1358 ||	   TOTAL |  13277 |  1006 |	0.0758 |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+
 
This is the week I need Clark to light it up like he has in the past. I also need my young bucks (Britt, Harvin, McCoy, etc.) to keep delivering.

This week will be tough.

 
Congrats to those who advanced and good luck going forward...

A big game from DeSean kept me from stressing last night. VJax and Dallas Clark will be 2 key guys for me, I still have a lot of options at WR/TE but just mediocre games won't get me far. I am starting to get the feeling my team peaked a few weeks ago with a couple 200+ weeks.

 
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wdcrob said:
BassNBrew said:
Elimination rates this week.20 - 44.6%21 - 46.5%22 - 43.9%23 - 35.7%24 - 28.6%
Click to expand...
24-man rosters were more than 3x as likely to make the final 1000 than 20-man rosters, and almost twice as likely to do it as 23-man rosters. More is better.
Click to expand...
I really don't understand how anyone could think it is better to have a smaller roster; assuming every NFL player in the game has the same risk of being injured or not playing (not true, this is for sake of argument), you want spread the risk out as much as possible. I don't think there can be any doubt that, in terms of the best chance of survivability, you need as large a roster as possible. Certainly, where you spend your money can be debated- but I don't think a rational argument can be made to justify a smaller roster given the nature of this contest.
 
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freshly_shorn said:
wdcrob said:
BassNBrew said:
Elimination rates this week.20 - 44.6%21 - 46.5%22 - 43.9%23 - 35.7%24 - 28.6%
Click to expand...
24-man rosters were more than 3x as likely to make the final 1000 than 20-man rosters, and almost twice as likely to do it as 23-man rosters. More is better.
Click to expand...
I really don't understand how anyone could think it is better to have a smaller roster; assuming every NFL player in the game has the same risk of being injured or not playing (not true, this is for sake of argument), you want spread the risk out as much as possible. I don't think there can be any doubt that, in terms of the best chance of survivability, you need as large a roster as possible. Certainly, where you spend your money can be debated- but I don't think a rational argument can be made to justify a smaller roster given the nature of this contest.
Click to expand...
I didn't know the rule had changed. :(I literally had just been tinkering around with my squad and then forgot to finalize it, but I never read the rules and just assumed it was the same as last year.I am one of the 20 man teams still alive, though. :confused:I'm also down to only 3 WR's right now.
 
freshly_shorn said:
wdcrob said:
BassNBrew said:
Elimination rates this week.20 - 44.6%21 - 46.5%22 - 43.9%23 - 35.7%24 - 28.6%
Click to expand...
24-man rosters were more than 3x as likely to make the final 1000 than 20-man rosters, and almost twice as likely to do it as 23-man rosters. More is better.
Click to expand...
I really don't understand how anyone could think it is better to have a smaller roster; assuming every NFL player in the game has the same risk of being injured or not playing (not true, this is for sake of argument), you want spread the risk out as much as possible. I don't think there can be any doubt that, in terms of the best chance of survivability, you need as large a roster as possible. Certainly, where you spend your money can be debated- but I don't think a rational argument can be made to justify a smaller roster given the nature of this contest.
Click to expand...
Well, injury risk isn't the only risk you have to consider. You also have to consider the risk of not performing. A truckload of $1 doesn't do you any good if they play like $1 players. So you have to mitigate that risk as well. But yes, when it comes to the optimal rooster size, bigger is better.This year's week 11 cut was 159.5. For comparison, last year's week 11 cut was 162.95. Week 12's cut was 174.45 and week 13's was 191.15. At this point you have to get lucky to stay alive. The more players you still have active (regardless of how many you started with), the better.
 
162.25 - I get to live the dream for another week. Thought I was not going to make it, but my TE duo of Z. Miller and Finley decided to carry me above the cut line once again.

 
:(

Everyone on my roster scored double digits except my kicker and defense. I was close, but not close enough. You know what they say, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades (I always thought nuclear war and teenage sex should be included in the close saying, but that's a whole different ball of wax)

It was fun while it lasted. Good luck to everyone still alive!

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Well, injury risk isn't the only risk you have to consider. You also have to consider the risk of not performing. A truckload of $1 doesn't do you any good if they play like $1 players. So you have to mitigate that risk as well. But yes, when it comes to the optimal rooster size, bigger is better.This year's week 11 cut was 159.5. For comparison, last year's week 11 cut was 162.95. Week 12's cut was 174.45 and week 13's was 191.15. At this point you have to get lucky to stay alive. The more players you still have active (regardless of how many you started with), the better.
Click to expand...
There is still a point where having top producing studs pays. But from this years results it is obviously bigger than 24, probably close to 30. What did me in was being down to 1 starting QB. Had I had a QB who could score more than 12 points, I would still be alive.
 
BassNBrew said:
Elimination rates this week.20 - 44.6%21 - 46.5%22 - 43.9%23 - 35.7%24 - 28.6%
Click to expand...
The results surprise me in some ways, not that 24 is the best, but there should have been some signs of diminishing returns. Somehow 20-man roosters did better than 21-man. The biggest advantage was gained from going from 22 to 23. I would have expected the numbers to look more like this:20 - 47%21 - 40%22 - 35%23 - 31%24 - 28%
 
sinatravolta said:
apalmer said:
I'll agree with you that the sample-size is too small--as is the data showing %-ages eliminated in two weeks. Of course, that's why I've been saying all along to wait and see what happens with the final 250, which is where this discussion started.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. Here are a couple of facts:
24 man rosters made up 25% of the original entries
20 man rosters made up 39% of the entriesHere are my expectations:

There will be more 24 rosters left in the Top 250 than 20 man rosters even though they started out with nearly 2,000 fewer of them
24 man rosters will make up at least half of the final 250
Just among those that make the Top 250, the 24 man rosters left will outperform the 20 man rosters left (avg score Week 14-16 will be higher)
There will be more 24 man rosters in the Top 50 and in the Top 10 than 20 man rostersOf course I also think a 24-man roster will win, but that's the hardest to predict as it's just 1 team.
Click to expand...
Just bringing back my roster-size predictions from after week 2 as we're getting close to the final 250. Many were arguing that it was way too early to tell whether the 20 or 24 man roster was better. But now we are through 11 weeks and what do we have:
24-man rosters make up 45% of the final 1,000
20-man rosters make up just 22% of the final 1,000My first prediction has easily come true. My 2nd is looking highly likely at this point. 4th one is almost a certainty since there are more than twice as many 24-man rosters alive at this point. 3rd one - we'll have to see but the one time we had data on how teams performed over a 3-week period the 24-man rosters killed the 20-man teams.

As for my team - I missed by 1.5 points in week 4, and would have made all the other cuts except for this last week. Ironically on my 24-man team all my cheap players other than K and D and Meachem were pretty much busts (guys like James Davis, Chaz Schilens, Edge James) - so I didn't get that much out of the extra roster spots myself. Still my biggest downfall was Chris Henry at $12 and Josh Morgan at $15 being busts.

 
At 192 and change, which put me at 114th or something. The only reason I'm still around is the fine play of Byron Leftwich the first two weeks.

I also have to say I was shocked to query my team and find only one remaining team shares this combo with me -- ADP, Grant, VDavis and Aaron Rodgers. And only 6.1% of teams took ADP to start? Huh.

Good luck to all this week.

Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Well, injury risk isn't the only risk you have to consider. You also have to consider the risk of not performing. A truckload of $1 doesn't do you any good if they play like $1 players. So you have to mitigate that risk as well. But yes, when it comes to the optimal rooster size, bigger is better.
Click to expand...
Quit your bragging. :shrug:
 
jon_mx said:
BassNBrew said:
Elimination rates this week.20 - 44.6%21 - 46.5%22 - 43.9%23 - 35.7%24 - 28.6%
Click to expand...
The results surprise me in some ways, not that 24 is the best, but there should have been some signs of diminishing returns. Somehow 20-man roosters did better than 21-man. The biggest advantage was gained from going from 22 to 23. I would have expected the numbers to look more like this:20 - 47%21 - 40%22 - 35%23 - 31%24 - 28%
Click to expand...
Most weeks there has been some noise in the data. The total data from 11 weeks is closer to what you suggest:20 - 4.3%21 - 5.2%22 - 8.0%23 - 8.4%24 - 13.6%although even that does have a big jump from 21 to 22 and from 23 to 24. I think it's possible here that the 24 is so much higher than 23 in part because those that realized that 24 was the best strategy were also more likely to have a good strategy in terms of picking the right people.
 
I'm the last team with

Cutler

ADP

Fitz

Sidney Rice

Zach Miller

On top of those I have McCoy, Grant, MSW, Sanchez, Maclin, Keller, Finley, Heap, Gostkowski, Kaeding, Steelers, Vikings, Charger

and then some no names

Been pretty consistent around the 170s each week approaching 200 in a couple weeks.

 
wow...made it all the way through with A. Gonzalez as my highest priced WR. Would be great to have him come back for the stretch run.

 
jon_mx said:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Well, injury risk isn't the only risk you have to consider. You also have to consider the risk of not performing. A truckload of $1 doesn't do you any good if they play like $1 players. So you have to mitigate that risk as well. But yes, when it comes to the optimal rooster size, bigger is better.This year's week 11 cut was 159.5. For comparison, last year's week 11 cut was 162.95. Week 12's cut was 174.45 and week 13's was 191.15. At this point you have to get lucky to stay alive. The more players you still have active (regardless of how many you started with), the better.
Click to expand...
There is still a point where having top producing studs pays. But from this years results it is obviously bigger than 24, probably close to 30. What did me in was being down to 1 starting QB. Had I had a QB who could score more than 12 points, I would still be alive.
Click to expand...
ARod all the way baby!
 
Only 47 teams alive with Brady. Came across Entry 102498 when sizing up the other teams with Brady. The team was LUCKY to survive week 5 with 14 zeros. Other than that...

Tom Brady $37

Matthew Stafford $11

Matt Leinart $4

DeAngelo Williams $37

Ryan Grant $24

Chris Wells $15

Ahmad Bradshaw $8

Michael Bush $6

Jerome Harrison $4

Bernard Scott $2

James Davis $2

Marques Colston $28

Vincent Jackson $21

Derrick Mason $9

Jordy Nelson $5

Nate Burleson $5

Pierre Garcon $3

Laurent Robinson $2

Greg Olsen $15

Jermichael Finley $3

Josh Scobee $2

Robbie Gould $2

Green Bay Packers $3

Seattle Seahawks $2

 
Grid71 said:
Only 47 teams alive with Brady. Came across Entry 102498 when sizing up the other teams with Brady. The team was LUCKY to survive week 5 with 14 zeros. Other than that...Tom Brady $37 Matthew Stafford $11 Matt Leinart $4 DeAngelo Williams $37 Ryan Grant $24 Chris Wells $15 Ahmad Bradshaw $8 Michael Bush $6 Jerome Harrison $4 Bernard Scott $2 James Davis $2 Marques Colston $28 Vincent Jackson $21 Derrick Mason $9 Jordy Nelson $5 Nate Burleson $5 Pierre Garcon $3 Laurent Robinson $2 Greg Olsen $15 Jermichael Finley $3 Josh Scobee $2 Robbie Gould $2 Green Bay Packers $3 Seattle Seahawks $2
Click to expand...
very solid team
 
Grid71 said:
Only 47 teams alive with Brady. Came across Entry 102498 when sizing up the other teams with Brady. The team was LUCKY to survive week 5 with 14 zeros. Other than that...Tom Brady $37 Matthew Stafford $11 Matt Leinart $4 DeAngelo Williams $37 Ryan Grant $24 Chris Wells $15 Ahmad Bradshaw $8 Michael Bush $6 Jerome Harrison $4 Bernard Scott $2 James Davis $2 Marques Colston $28 Vincent Jackson $21 Derrick Mason $9 Jordy Nelson $5 Nate Burleson $5 Pierre Garcon $3 Laurent Robinson $2 Greg Olsen $15 Jermichael Finley $3 Josh Scobee $2 Robbie Gould $2 Green Bay Packers $3 Seattle Seahawks $2
Click to expand...
:goodposting: lol, i have never opened this thread before but i figured 'hey, i'm getting pretty deep in this thing, let's see what they're talking about.'and my team is posted.(this recognition more or less assures that i have no shot obviously)GL all.
 
Who else is looking for big days from Finley and Felix Jones tomorrow? :yes:

 
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I'm OK with a survival rate prediction over 55, and power ranking in the 300s. This is the week things get really tough, IMO.

 
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Ouch...38%. I do suspect I get bounced in the next 2 weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger

Matt Hasselbeck

Steve Slaton

Ray Rice

Felix Jones

Ahmad Bradshaw

LeSean McCoy

Wes Welker

Greg Jennings

Eddie Royal

Joey Galloway

Hakeem Nicks

Devery Henderson

Robert Meachem

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Josh Cribbs

Brent Celek

Martellus Bennett

Josh Brown

Dan Carpenter

Shaun Suisham

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

 
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