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Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
A quick check shows 8 of 10 staffers breezing past the cut this week.
Borbely & Herman
Borbely & Herman
How was it wrong? You can't judge a simulation by one team's result. Just because there was one team given a 10% chance of survival and it survived, doesn't mean it was wrong. There will probably nine other teams in the same circumstance that did not survive. Overall, i am impressed with just how accurate the simulation has been. That said, as we get fewer teams, the results may not be so good because random variations have a bigger effect. Say there are 5 teams with a 20% chance of survival, 0 or 2 of them could survive instead of one and it would make it look like a bad result percentagewise eventhough it was just off by 1.currently about 2 points under the projected cut with New Orleans D going (-2).i think i will be ok.week 8 simulator. you were wrong again!
Dickie Dunn
Footballguy
Despite having Brady and Moss on bye, sim has me at 100 percent. Thanks to Sanchez, Peterson, Celek, Dallas D, and a decent contribution from Crabtree. I was sweating this week; now I'm only worried about Peterson being off next week and Grant being my only decent RB left.
Sack-Religious
Footballguy
Pre-MNF sim has me at 100%, so I'm pretty confident I'll make it through this week's cut.
That being said, injuries are making my team very thin and I don't think I'll be around much longer.
That being said, injuries are making my team very thin and I don't think I'll be around much longer.
Caveman_Nick
Footballguy
My chances of hitting the big bucks just too a severe hit with Daniels going down. Just Baker and Finley left at TE. *sigh*
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Organized Chaos
Footballguy
I'm at 130.5 with Colston (-5.8) going tonight and the sim has me at 58.5%
I thought I was all set, dont like seeing that low sim #
I thought I was all set, dont like seeing that low sim #
Liquid Courage
Footballguy
No....No, we don't.I'll take a terrible week from Rodgers one week...if Matt Ryan lights it up to replace those points on my roster!
thehornet
Footballguy
i was here to post the same thought, except I would need old Hass to get it going.
dagman
Footballguy
I'm ok this week at 145.7, but next week I lose Peterson and Taylor with only Rice, McGahee and McCoy left at the RB spot. Add to that my WRs are Wayne, Boldin, Maclin, Chambers and Howard-Bey and I could be in trouble, especially if Boldin can't go. Losing Daniels hurts with Schaub as my #1 QB backed up by Stafford, Quinn and Leftwich. I'm going to have to hope Carlson and Fasano can perform well next week. If I can survive next week, I should be ok, but I'll definitely be on the bubble.
bryhamm
Footballguy
ditto
Project Mayhem
Footballguy
79.9% chance according to the sim. I have Turner left (-6.6) and am currently sitting at 128.25. Thats too damn close!
Kind of surprised you are at 79.9% and the guy above you is at 100%. I guess Elam is almost guarenteed getting some points. If Turner can add even 2 points to your score you should be a lock.
Project Mayhem
Footballguy
Agreed, especially since I need less than a point over the 6.60 from Turner, oh well, cant' go against the computer!
Barry Jive and The Uptown Five
Footballguy
When my QB2 put up 30+ in the 1:00 time slot, I was kind of hoping this was going to be the week for a Rogers clunker.At this point, I really wonder if Rogers performance is going to matter. He's going to be one of the highest owned players in the final 250 anyway. Maybe if you have a strong QB2, you'd really want Rogers to get knocked out for a couple games in the Final 250. That would really put the "Rogers/Leftwich" type owners in a pretty big hole.
I'm ok with Rodgers having a bad game as long as Flacco has a good game. I've actually used other QB's 4 of the 8 weeks. The Rodgers, Flacco, Leftwich QB was one of my best ideas in this contest.
Twilight
Footballguy
Um, why is Chicago considered a "tough" game? A quick glance at FP allowed shows Chicago (before this week) as 8th worst. Seattle is actually a tougher game at this point.
That first drive just put you at 100%
Project Mayhem
Footballguy
Was just about to come in here and say the same thing.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Likely a cold weather game. My apologies if tough is not the correct word.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
118ish at the end of q1
If this scoring keeps up, could push the 130 level.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
historically, 10 point moves are unusual. I agree with you and with tonight's teams and expect this to be close though.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
123.75 at the half...
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
122.95 hoping Ryan gets it going in 2nd half... 
ctriopelle said:
Das Boot
Footballguy
My chances for points at the TE position are virtually identical to yours:OlsenFinleyBaker
ctriopelle
Footballguy
his TD jumped us to 125.45, but I think you're safe now...122.95 hoping Ryan gets it going in 2nd half...
ctriopelle said:
Alberta Clipper
Footballguy
FS just caught up. I have longshot meachem to contribute too. 129ish and now any ryan pts are gravy.
Still I went from a top 200 contender to bottom feeder with daniels injury like many others...
Still I went from a top 200 contender to bottom feeder with daniels injury like many others...
ctriopelle
Footballguy
127.2 at end q3
How do you know your score during the game? Are you tracking it on your own somewhere, or is there a link I am not aware of?
Edited to add, I found the link here
Fantasy Star
Edited to add, I found the link here
Fantasy Star
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jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Wow. Thank you, Roddy White.
I've said that my team is excellent EXCEPT for my RBs, and they almost destroyed me this week. 137 points from my team despite a pathetic RB total of 7.2 points from Steve Slaton and Michael Bush. If I am to survive this contest, I need guys like Willie Parker and Sammy Morris to start helping out.
I've said that my team is excellent EXCEPT for my RBs, and they almost destroyed me this week. 137 points from my team despite a pathetic RB total of 7.2 points from Steve Slaton and Michael Bush. If I am to survive this contest, I need guys like Willie Parker and Sammy Morris to start helping out.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Sorry, fell asleep and just made my final update. Shows 131.5 right now, wouldn't be surprised if it shifted .20 either way with the way the scoring looks.130.8 good enough to stay alive according to FS
geoff8695
Footballguy
Sorry, fell asleep and just made my final update. Shows 131.5 right now, wouldn't be surprised if it shifted .20 either way with the way the scoring looks.130.8 good enough to stay alive according to FS
Spoke too soon - oh well, the loss of Owen Daniels was going to kill me sooner or later anyways...
Week 8 standings
Updated ownership stats
Querier form
Simulator accuracy report:
Roster size report:
Updated ownership stats
Querier form
Simulator accuracy report:
Code:
prob # surv pct---------------------------95--99 525 518 98.790--94 730 682 93.485--89 608 547 90.080--84 469 388 82.775--79 359 272 75.870--74 268 203 75.765--69 219 141 64.460--64 169 99 58.655--59 147 85 57.850--54 122 57 46.745--49 67 36 53.740--44 69 27 39.135--39 57 19 33.330--34 56 17 30.425--29 44 10 22.720--24 30 3 10.015--19 27 3 11.110--14 20 1 5.0 5-- 9 16 1 6.2 0-- 4 12 0 0.0
Code:
+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| roster_size | number | alive | pct_alive |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+| 20 | 5181 | 835 | 0.1612 || 21 | 2032 | 383 | 0.1885 || 22 | 1445 | 379 | 0.2623 || 23 | 1291 | 363 | 0.2812 || 24 | 3328 | 1149 | 0.3453 || TOTAL | 13277 | 3109 | 0.2342 |+-------------+--------+-------+-----------+
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Well, I came close, but no cigars. S Jax, D Jax, Celek and the Saints D combined for 74 points...the rest of my team combined for 20, with 12 zeros.
I only missed by 37 points.
I only missed by 37 points.
apalmer
Footballguy
And, the official "me, too" reply---155.5 as my lowest score so far other than that Week 4 fiasco.Now for the official QGpost of the week
My actual entry would be sweating a bit. I calculate the entry would've had 117.95. But Colston minus 1.3 would still be there for me.The Path Not Taken entry, which still woulda been alive, looks like it will be able to mock me for at least one more week, even with a trio of Garrard, S Hill, and Leftwich at QB. I calculate 128.35 with (Elam minus 16) and (Colston minus 9.3) to go.
Good luck to all you bubble hangers!-QG (Week 1 eliminatee who still hasn't quite gotten over it)
Coleston scores 14, I skate by 9....next week's byes....Buffalo,Minnesota,N.Y. Jets,Oakland,St. Louis,Cleveland.......not much for bye except those with T Jones, SJax or ADP. Missing Harvin will hurt some who need depth at WR. I think a lot of ADP owners will go down though as he is the biggest hit and most people are near full strength. I will be missing Visanthe Shiancoe, so I will need Baker or Finley to show up in the box score. Without Shiancoe I would have made it by less than 1 point this week.
Without Shiancoe I would have made it by less than 1 point this week.
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smackdaddies
Footballguy
274 of us Rodgers/Leftwich owners remaining - 38%1455 Rodgers owners overall - 35%Rodger/Leftwich owners are smarter than other Rodger owners! (so far......)Still wish I had pulled the trigger on Rodgers only and gotten a 3rd kicker
