Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
*** OFFICIAL Super Bowl LV Thread *** Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 56) (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Tampa Bay wins. They have a better pass rush and the game will probably come down to who can get a big sack to end the game. This is a repeat the first Giants / Patriots SB except the roles are reversed and Tom Brady is the underdog. Can't imagine that people aren't loading up on the Chiefs.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I'm seeing at minimum +140 on the Bucs. Not bad odds at all.
gump
Footballguy
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Double Tyreek all game. I have confidence in Lavonte and White covering Kelce.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
LaVonte is probably the best cover LB of the last 10 years. No hyperbole. White has not been good in coverage though. David with some help could slow Kelce down some. The big question is can the Bucs get pressure with just 4 guys?
Capella
Footballguy
Incredible run for Licht and the scouting department. He was almost run out of town after he picked the kicker in round 2 all those years back, but the Glazers have shown a lot of patience and it has clearly worked out. Guy knows how to draft — also stole Shaq Barrett off of free agency too, his first contract was for like 5M a year if I recall.
Also got JPP for a third-round pick and moved up in the draft to get Wirfs. He should win the exec of the year.
Capella
Footballguy
No, they’re going to have to blitz White. This is a terrible matchup for White actually, as bad as he is in coverage but it also goes directly to his best skill which is blitzing. They should utilize him blitzing with Shaq and JPP and try to force Mahomes into bad decisions. Leave David and/or the safeties to cover Kelce. White will get chewed up by him.
Capella
Footballguy
Miller is a better player and should play over AB. Problem is he basically runs deep routes and AB can work the chains in the middle. But the other problem is the Bucs aren’t interested in that and just want to run on first down and then throw two low percentage plays to the outside after that.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
The first down runs have been obnoxious. I can't quite figure it out. They're setting up play action shots, but haven't hit many of them. I guess we shouldn't complain. Don't see that kind of first down inefficiency being a winning strategy against KC. They're the best 3rd and long defense in the league. Brady isn't going to convert those like he did against the Pack in the first half.
Helaire-ious
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Excellent point, one phantom neutral zone infraction...and Brady of course takes it for the score on the 2nd chance he received. The play where KC was lined up offsides, that flag appeared late and the Chiefs intercepted Brady and were starting to celebrate a trip to the Super Bowl.
Brady gets the ball back, he scores and even will go on to win Super Bowl 53 where I believe he played in 5 straight AFCC, 4 Super Bowls and 3 Trophies, if he wins Super Bowl 55 would make 4 Trophies for Tom inside of 7 years to go with his first run of 3 in 4 years from '01-'04.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Feels like Tyler Johnson is going to bust out one of these weeks, Bucs have a plethora of weapons and Brady has made everyone get involved at receiver, all of them have had a high point in the playoff games so far. Brady could exploit any of them since none of them can feel like decoys or just eating up a defender in space, all these guys have been asked to reel ins some big catches. I won't be surprised if one of the lesser known receivers on the Bucs has a big game.
I would like to see AB able to go and 100%, he is still so explosive and if they don't cover him or just stick any guy on him, KC will understand real fast what they are dealing with. Godwin looks incredible going into the Super Bowl, Evans was all over the place, I hope he can get it together between the ears the next couple weeks and play within himself. Godwin and Evans should want to score a TD from Brady in the Super Bowl, it's going to be a historical day for both of them to have major parts of the passing game.
Bucs need to shorten the game and create at least 2 key turnovers, time of possession wold be good if they can push it towards their favor. Lot of the mock ups have it close to 50/50, I think it's more 65/35 in KC's favor and the Bucs need to play almost a perfect game. Cannot commit turnovers and cannot allow Mahomes to have the ball all game, gotta create some pressure and somehow throw of the timing.
Last edited by a moderator:
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I do think Tampa needs to run the ball to win, of course I thought the same thing about the last game. If they can run it opens play\pass and that is critical as is holding on to the ball and keeping mahomes off the field.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Yeah, absolutely they can.
I can't stress this enough - the Chiefs offensive line is in trouble. Loosing Fisher is a huge blow to an already thin line. They have lost like one game in the last two years with him in the lineup. When he is not in the lineup they have lost 5.
The way you beat the Chiefs is rush 4 effectively, which the Bucs can do. Drop everyone back in zone and cut off the intermediate routes. Mahomes won't have time to stand back there and wait for deep routes to develop.
If Reid combats this with more screens and slants (quick drop stuff), the Chiefs speed can turn those 5 yard passes into 50 yard passes.
Capella
Footballguy
65/35 is a bit ridiculous. DVOA has the Bucs favored to win 54% of the time. I think the Bucs overall have a better team but KC has an absolutely ridiculous QB and WR/TE combo that covers a lot up. We’ll know early on - if the Bucs can get to Mahomes they win; if the pass rush is off or he eludes them it’s over.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
38-10 regular season under Mahomes, that's like 80%, I was being generous.
Playoffs....let's see...hmmmm 5-1 by my count with one loss to one particular guy.
Bucs 54% to win? I hope you're right but this feels a lot more like David vs Goliath than it does the way your view point is IMHO. KC has a lot of talent, not just at QB and a couple skill spots, they're much more than that. You can't rack up what they have done 43-11, 3 straight AFCC, 2 Super Bowls, 1 Trophy and counting, it's impressive and to think the Bucs are the favorite seems ludicrous to me. But maybe others feel different.
Last edited by a moderator:
Capella
Footballguy
I don’t think anything you said in your first two paragraphs has anything to do with the game at all. Same with the 43-11 and AFCG appearances etc. None of that matters when they hit the field.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
KC opened -3.5 and it's trending down slightly from there at -3, seems like this is going to be a pretty even spread for betting, line might move a little but not likely unless some big news breaks. The LT for KC is OUT and I haven't mentioned it much yet because I think it's unfortunate but you can be assured that the Bucs and Bowles will be bringing blitzes and bull rushes on that side all game, eventually that has to create sacks, disrupt some timing, or cause turnovers. All of which are good for the Bucs and Brady perhaps finding a short field or two during the game. He has managed to capitalize most of the time.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Shaq and JPP against backup tackles with Suh, Vea, and Gholston/Nacho in the middle...
Capella
Footballguy
Just an enormous advantage for the Bucs, especially with Vea back. He was flattening that excellent Packers center quite a few times Sunday. They have to capitalize on this.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Not buying this. Brady routed in a super bowl? In 9 times, that's never happened. And most of his mistakes last weekend were when he was under fire. That really bad 2nd duck he tossed was him just trying to get rid of it. With 2 weeks to look at tape, Brady's never been the type to repeat mistakes. I don't see him being so careless next game. Have to see if KC can make him uncomfortable.
And no way I see Evans having such a rough time next game either. Could have just been the cold, but dude couldn't grab anything after that first TD.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I think the teams are too evenly matched for it to be a rout, but you never know. Either team is capable of routing the other. We know the Chiefs can run it up on anybody, and even though we know the Chiefs have yet to lose by more than one score in three years with Mahomes (a crazy fact), the Bucs could easily get on a roll with that pass rush and the Chiefs missing their best o-lineman and blow them out.
Bucs and the points seems like the smart Vegas play.
Bucs and the points seems like the smart Vegas play.
Capella
Footballguy
The Chiefs threw for 250 yards in the first quarter and won by 3 points a few months ago. Why would this be a rout.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
rockaction
Footballguy
What the line is or what you have?
edit: never mind, it should be clear from your post -- I think. You've got TB and the Over. I'm inclined to not agree and go with KC and the Over. That may change come game time.
Last edited by a moderator:
zoonation
Footballguy
Because it’s the super bowl and they won’t take their foot off the gas? I love the Bucs story but the Chiefs play a different game.
Line issue is big though.
zoonation
Footballguy
The chiefs are missing their two starting guards, are playing on the other team’s home field, and are 4 point favourites. Different league. But we’ll see on Sunday. Well, the Sunday after that.
Capella
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Schwartz hasn't played in a while (although it seems like his departure coincided with a bit of a slow down for the Chiefs), but losing Fisher is pretty big. Vea also didn't play in the first game. He's a huge difference maker inside. Get Mahomes moving on his toe into the waiting arms of JPP, Shaq, and Devin White.
Last edited by a moderator:
ChiefD
Footballguy
The Chiefs defense may actually be the difference in this game. They have quietly started playing better, and they will need to play better to keep the Bucs out of the end zone while the Chiefs try and figure out the Bucs pass rush on offense.
In last years Super Bowl, the Chiefs had a really hard time with a stout Niners pass rush, and the defense kept them in the game until they figured some things out in the 4th quarter.
This game this year has so many layers to it. Should be a good one.
In last years Super Bowl, the Chiefs had a really hard time with a stout Niners pass rush, and the defense kept them in the game until they figured some things out in the 4th quarter.
This game this year has so many layers to it. Should be a good one.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Crap, I forgot Cappy is a Bucs fan.
Go Chiefs!
Go Chiefs!
Similar threads
