Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
orton? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter jb1020
- Start date
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Really? I thought he looked mediocre at best.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Very good in Fantasy - but not reality. The following is a snippet from my newsletter last week:
The Diagnosis: ---but a closer look at Orton's overall stats reveals a muddier picture than I painted above. Yes, for fantasy purposes, Orton owners have to be pleased with the bottom line.
But he's only thrown one less pick (4) than TD's (5) and last week he coughed up two fumbles as well. Meaning Kyle's actually given the ball to the opponent more often this year, than he's burned them for 6. And his yds p.p.g. (191.5) probably isn't helping your cause.
The upside of all of this is that, in terms of pure games started, Orton is still early in his 2nd year with room to learn and improve. Matt Forte and the Bears D is helping to mask just how "iffy" this guy's been and at the end of the day, Chicago's probably happy to be tied with the Packers at 2-2 atop the NFC North.
For the immediate future, Orton remains a stock to "Hold" in my book rather than a "Buy" or a "Sell" for those of you in start 2QB formats, his stats are worthy of being your "other" QB for right now. The next three games @ Detroit, @ Atlanta and vs. Minnesota will tell us a lot. None of those three are currently higher than 13th vs. the pass.
If the Bears come away from those three with an overall record of 4-3 or better and Orton can limit the TO's to 1 or 2 a game at most, then he should cruise for the rest of the year as your #2. Otherwise, you should begin shopping.
For now - I think he's a very solid backup QB.
The Diagnosis: ---but a closer look at Orton's overall stats reveals a muddier picture than I painted above. Yes, for fantasy purposes, Orton owners have to be pleased with the bottom line.
But he's only thrown one less pick (4) than TD's (5) and last week he coughed up two fumbles as well. Meaning Kyle's actually given the ball to the opponent more often this year, than he's burned them for 6. And his yds p.p.g. (191.5) probably isn't helping your cause.
The upside of all of this is that, in terms of pure games started, Orton is still early in his 2nd year with room to learn and improve. Matt Forte and the Bears D is helping to mask just how "iffy" this guy's been and at the end of the day, Chicago's probably happy to be tied with the Packers at 2-2 atop the NFC North.
For the immediate future, Orton remains a stock to "Hold" in my book rather than a "Buy" or a "Sell" for those of you in start 2QB formats, his stats are worthy of being your "other" QB for right now. The next three games @ Detroit, @ Atlanta and vs. Minnesota will tell us a lot. None of those three are currently higher than 13th vs. the pass.
If the Bears come away from those three with an overall record of 4-3 or better and Orton can limit the TO's to 1 or 2 a game at most, then he should cruise for the rest of the year as your #2. Otherwise, you should begin shopping.
For now - I think he's a very solid backup QB.
switz
Footballguy
You have to remember that this was only his 22nd or 23rd start, and that 11 (?) of those were 4 years ago in his rookie season. He is clearly a QB who is still developing, but he's improved every season he's played, and shows definite potential to be a better than average QB in this league. He's going to have some abysmal games, but he'll also have some excellent games. I expect his yardage per game to go up, as the Bears seem to be opening up the play calling as they gain confidence in him. I'm not sure I'd expect many mutli-TD games from him, but he will be a good FF #2 QB this year... maybe a #1 type FF QB next year
Addai's Adidas
Footballguy
He played the Lions.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
He's good enough to start in a pinch or if you're desperate. He makes a lot more throws than he used to. But if your league severely punishes for turnovers, then he's not a good choice.
I don't care how good he REALLY is... his schedule looks soft and he's passing well and throwing touchdowns. I am in QB hell and (moving forward) I think he's better than a lot of the waiver wire guys: J.T.O', Bulger, Cassell, Pennington, Ryan, Collins, Frerotte, Flacco, etc.
It looks like teams are trying to stop Forte to the benefit of the passing game.
It looks like teams are trying to stop Forte to the benefit of the passing game.
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
Really good twice a year. Against Detroit.
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
He will be a stud against Atlanta
two_dollars
Footballguy
You took that quote from before week 5's games clearly.. since it mentions the Bears are tied with the Packers at 2-2. If you are going to pull snippets and use them out of context, at least erase any signs that can date the article. You can't fool everyone.FantasyTrader said:
Last edited by a moderator:
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
two_dollars said:
I can't fool everyone, but you sure can. I'm completely lost by your response. The first line of my reply indicates I pulled this from last week (aka: b-e-f-o-r-e week 5). But thanks for pointing out the obvious Sherlock.
Bluesbomber
Footballguy
He throws a very nice long ball. The Bears have a somewhat weak line with potential and iffy wr's to say the least AT THIS POINT. Hester showed me a little bit this week about his attitude as a football player by catching a nice little crossing pattern over the middle and appearing excited to be a part of the offense.
If the young guys on the O line, Beekman and the injured but starting to practice first tound pick Williams provide an improvement as the season progresses Orton might have a nice ypa jump with more time to find recievers.
Orton has shown some nice play calling adjustment at the line of scrimmage.
I really cannot say if he is locking in on one reciever or following his reads at this point. I will try and watch for this the next few weeks. I feel this is the key to how Orton is bucketed inb the future. This, the development of the wr position (Davis, Hester) and a possibly improving O line make Orton worth watching and a nice pickup in dynasty and deep leagues IMO.
I am in a 8 team 2 keeper with Ben, Eli and Kurt so he is on my desperation list and watch for possible QBBC for next season.
Hope this helps. In case you haven't figured it out yet. Go Bears.
edit for grammar
If the young guys on the O line, Beekman and the injured but starting to practice first tound pick Williams provide an improvement as the season progresses Orton might have a nice ypa jump with more time to find recievers.
Orton has shown some nice play calling adjustment at the line of scrimmage.
I really cannot say if he is locking in on one reciever or following his reads at this point. I will try and watch for this the next few weeks. I feel this is the key to how Orton is bucketed inb the future. This, the development of the wr position (Davis, Hester) and a possibly improving O line make Orton worth watching and a nice pickup in dynasty and deep leagues IMO.
I am in a 8 team 2 keeper with Ben, Eli and Kurt so he is on my desperation list and watch for possible QBBC for next season.
Hope this helps. In case you haven't figured it out yet. Go Bears.
edit for grammar
Last edited by a moderator:
flapgreen
Footballguy
Bluesbomber
Footballguy
By itself this quote might seem funny or painful but in the context of my post makes sense. Look at the amzing catches by Booker and Loyd this season although few and far between they were caught. Here is my supposition if Orton is reading defenses and routes correctly AND his line improves to give him time he MIGHT nicely improve his ypa. I also specified for this season he is on my desparation watch if another qb get's hurt and might be a nice DYNASTY option.
Oh yeah and Go Bears maybe it is wishful thinking but I am actally watching the Bears games and think some folks might enjoy the insight.
Oh yeah and Go Bears maybe it is wishful thinking but I am actally watching the Bears games and think some folks might enjoy the insight.
Last edited by a moderator:
flapgreen
Footballguy
I'm a huge Bears fan and watch every game. If there's one thing Orton can't do consistently, it's throw the deep ball. I cringe every time I see him launch one. He's terribly inaccurate. Most of the good Lloyd and Booker catches were all due to their own adjustments. That's why they have him throwing mostly outs and dump offs. Just my opinion. I can't speak on the fantasy football side of thingsBy itself this quote might seem funny or painful but in the context of my post makes sense. Look at the amzing catches by Booker and Loyd this season although few and far between they were caught. Here is my supposition if Orton is reading defenses and routes correctly AND his line improves to give him time he MIGHT nicely improve his ypa. I also specified for this season he is on my desparation watch if another qb get's hurt and might be a nice DYNASTY option.
Oh yeah and Go Bears maybe it is wishful thinking but I am actally watching the Bears games and think some folks might enjoy the insight.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bluesbomber
Footballguy
I work weird hours so I try to watch the games on DVR but it is hard to watch after knowing score. I noticed a very nice tight spiral on a few passed and havn' t seen as much as I should to notice a Kordell Stewart like accuracy problem. I will defer to a fellow Bears fan and who has seen this Bears team on a much more regular basis and will add to my areaa of things to happen for Orton to be top 15-20 ish accuracy on long ball. I will watch for that and his ability to read recievers and I now have a great reason to watch the Bears games on DVR. Improve my football IQ. 
Go Bears.
Go Bears.Who would drop a QB before they were about to face Detroit twice in the next 4 weeks? Especially in a 2 QB dynasty- that's mid boggling.I picked him up AFTER week 4 off the wire in 3 leagues and started him all and it paid off. This week, he's only starting one. Orton is a great bye week filler with the cushy schedule. He also has a nice playoff matchup in week 15 vs. the Saints.He's been getting better every week. If he had an elite receiver to go along with the decent but not fantastic corps he's throwing to, he'd be great. I think the Bears need to start getting Earl Bennett involved- he could be a force next year but not getting any snaps...
As a Bears fan, I do not think that Orton is very good.
But I think what is appealing about Orton right now is that since week one he has had 32, 34, 34 and 34 pass attempts respectively. Given enough opportunity he certainly has a chance to put up decent Fantasy numbers regardless of how good he actually is. And it would appear that they are comfortable enough with him to let him throw it a decent number of times a game. So he is certainly worth a roster spot to me, especially with his schedule which is relatively weak against the pass.
But I think what is appealing about Orton right now is that since week one he has had 32, 34, 34 and 34 pass attempts respectively. Given enough opportunity he certainly has a chance to put up decent Fantasy numbers regardless of how good he actually is. And it would appear that they are comfortable enough with him to let him throw it a decent number of times a game. So he is certainly worth a roster spot to me, especially with his schedule which is relatively weak against the pass.
switz
Footballguy
I'm really surprised anyone could come to a strong conclusion in either direction given Orton's short history. While he's been in the league for 4 years, people seem to want to ignore that he only has started like 24 games now, which is less than two seasons. Most QBs take at least 2 seasons to really start putting things together. Add in that Orton was holding the clipboard for Rex Grossman, not exactly a stellar QB to learn from, and the Bears have no real QB coach, he is doing very well.He's no Peyton Manning or Matt Ryan, but could he develop into a Drew Brees? Why not?
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
At this point I almost think there's a stigma attached to all Bears QB's - after all Orton was holding a clipboard for Rex freaking Grossman, how good could he be right? But we need to remember he's still on the learning curve.Honestly, you make a good point Switz, especially in your comparison to Drew Brees (considering they are both Purdue guys).I think as Bears fans we are pretty much just kind of in the mind that we have no ability to draft QB's, and since we drafted Orton he is destined for failure. This is not a logical argument, mind you. This is strictly me as a Bears fan projecting my expectations for a QB that we draft.Clearly the guy has a great record, but we tend to pin that more on the Defense and Special Teams than we do on Orton. This year he has been asked to make some plays and he has made some plays for us, so I really have no reason to complain other than that he is a QB who we drafted.
Won't be any kind of Fantasy savior, but a great fill in with all of the elite QB's going down.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Let's be honest. Orton can't possibly be a sell high. He's a joke in most fantasy owners minds. The idea of giving up a player with any real value for Orton won't work with 99.9% of owners out there.
So for those of us who picked him up off the scrap heap: Some encouraging things are happening this year.
Orton was ripped for his TD-INT ratio: So far this year: 8/4
He was ripped for his poor career YPA: So far this year: 7.0
He was ripped for his poor career completion %: So far this year: 61.6%
He was ripped because he only did it vs. the Lions: So far this year:
IND: 13/21 150 0/0
CAR: 19/32 149 0/0
TB: 22/34 268 2/2
PHI: 18/34 199 3/2
DET: 24/34 334 2/0
ATL: 26/43 286 1/0
I watched a fair amount of that CHI/ATL game, and actually heard myself say more than once, "nice throw Kyle." I also thought his receivers let him down on more than one occasion in the end zone. He very easily could have had at least one more TD.
Don't get me wrong, I don't expect Orton to be the next Peyton Manning or anything. As a fantasy owner, I am just a bit surprised by his suddenly improved play.
Also, Brees isn't the only QB that has unexpectedly come into his own after some time in the league. Rich Gannon spend 11 years in the league before ever throwing more than 16 TDs or having a 7.0 YPA. Kurt Warner couldn't make it as the Packers 3rd QB early in his career. Jake Delhomme was in and out of the NFL before being traded to CAR. Plenty of examples out there where guys came from much more obscurity to be productive players.
So for those of us who picked him up off the scrap heap: Some encouraging things are happening this year.
Orton was ripped for his TD-INT ratio: So far this year: 8/4
He was ripped for his poor career YPA: So far this year: 7.0
He was ripped for his poor career completion %: So far this year: 61.6%
He was ripped because he only did it vs. the Lions: So far this year:
IND: 13/21 150 0/0
CAR: 19/32 149 0/0
TB: 22/34 268 2/2
PHI: 18/34 199 3/2
DET: 24/34 334 2/0
ATL: 26/43 286 1/0
I watched a fair amount of that CHI/ATL game, and actually heard myself say more than once, "nice throw Kyle." I also thought his receivers let him down on more than one occasion in the end zone. He very easily could have had at least one more TD.
Don't get me wrong, I don't expect Orton to be the next Peyton Manning or anything. As a fantasy owner, I am just a bit surprised by his suddenly improved play.
Also, Brees isn't the only QB that has unexpectedly come into his own after some time in the league. Rich Gannon spend 11 years in the league before ever throwing more than 16 TDs or having a 7.0 YPA. Kurt Warner couldn't make it as the Packers 3rd QB early in his career. Jake Delhomme was in and out of the NFL before being traded to CAR. Plenty of examples out there where guys came from much more obscurity to be productive players.
NatronIsMean
Footballguy
Orton is solid in my opinion. He's working with NO solid receivers, and yet is putting up numbers. The Bears replaced Berrian with Lloyd/Rashied Davis, and Muhsin with Booker this year. Hester is playing better and Olson is making strides, but a lot of credit needs to go to Orton at this point.
I'm a Bears fan and wasn't bought in at all early on - I thought that he didn't show much at the end of last year, though I liked him better than Rex. However, his mid- to deep passes have been getting better, and overall the guy just makes good decisions. He showed against Indy that he was clutch on 3rd downs, showed it again last week and against the Eagles, and really has only had one bad game so far (Carolina) in my mind. Really, that's HUGE for us Bears fans.
He's more than a game manager, has the right pieces (skill, height, arm) and is clearly still getting better. He has the pieces and is intelligent enough in-game to have some solid promise.
I'm a Bears fan and wasn't bought in at all early on - I thought that he didn't show much at the end of last year, though I liked him better than Rex. However, his mid- to deep passes have been getting better, and overall the guy just makes good decisions. He showed against Indy that he was clutch on 3rd downs, showed it again last week and against the Eagles, and really has only had one bad game so far (Carolina) in my mind. Really, that's HUGE for us Bears fans.
He's more than a game manager, has the right pieces (skill, height, arm) and is clearly still getting better. He has the pieces and is intelligent enough in-game to have some solid promise.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
So ride the wave. No sense in selling low and who knows, maybe it real.VICK-tory said:
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I have been extremely impressed watching the past few weeks. This kid makes reads, is accurate, has a live arm and can hit receivers in stride. Way underrated.
cstu
Footballguy
As a Chargers fan I see the similarities as well. Brees was pretty bad in 2003 and then "got it" in 2004. I don't quite see Orton on that level, but he seems to be doing pretty well and without all the weapons Brees was blessed with.
Last edited by a moderator:
Birdie048
Footballguy
From a Fantasy perspective, Orton is undervalued. In my 12 Team 3 player Keeper league (6 pt TD pass/run/rec), he is the #12 QB in average scoring (right behind McNabb & Eli).
Expectations are not too high, but I can see the growth & development he is experiencing in his decision making. I still expect an occasional poor showing (under 200 yards & 2+ Int), but it is a learning curve. I think Forte has given him the chance to do this.
He might not be Keeper material, but he is a hold in Dynasty formats.
Expectations are not too high, but I can see the growth & development he is experiencing in his decision making. I still expect an occasional poor showing (under 200 yards & 2+ Int), but it is a learning curve. I think Forte has given him the chance to do this.
He might not be Keeper material, but he is a hold in Dynasty formats.
flapgreen
Footballguy
If this continues, I may be eating my words. I'd love to eat my words in this case.No. Everyone looks good against Detroit. Even after this game, his stats are average. Look at his history. He's not very good and never will be.
switz
Footballguy
flapgreen said:If this continues, I may be eating my words. I'd love to eat my words in this case.No. Everyone looks good against Detroit. Even after this game, his stats are average. Look at his history. He's not very good and never will be.
Kudos for admitting you might be wrong.BTW, Orton is on pace for 3815 yards, 23 TDs, 9 INTsThose numbers measure up quite well with Tom Brady's numbers from '03-'06, and it's arguable that even in those years Brady had better WRs than the guys Orton is throwing to. It's probably time for all the Orton-haters to man up and admit they were wrong.
