Nope, not at all. I used to go to games there when I lived in the area and I'd rather see them win this year than anyone else. I just think it is naive to think Brady will play at today's level for 3-6 more years (Boston mentioned 45) without "help." Nature is what it is and when football players hit a wall, they hit is hard. Two recent examples of QBs who played long HOF careers and one fell off drastically at 39 and the other at 41. Maybe Brady can make it, but it would be shocking and knowing how the Pats use every advantage, I wouldn't put PEDs out of the question. I am certainly not accusing him of anything like that now.
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Patriots looking for a 1st and 4th for Garoppolo (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
The $$$ is a good point, but based on actual cap money owed, it really would only be one year of doubling up (2018 since Brady could easily be released (retire) in 2019 with little dead cap). Also, Garoppolo's getting $20M per year after 2 games? After Brock Osweiler, something tells me that ain't happening again.
Boston
Footballguy
Don't put words in my mouth...I said Brady has said he will play till he is 45...he has been very open about this...it is absolutely no secret...I do think that it is a stretch but I do not think playing another three years at a high level is out-of-the-question...especially since he is currently playing at an MVP level this year and is absolutely moving better than he ever has in his career...
Relax, I know you mentioned 45 and read your post that Brady said it. I put that in because I was responding to another poster.
Maybe I should accuse him of something if at 39 he's moving better than ever. That raises some suspicions.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Bradford was/is a little different. That was a team that thought they were a Super Bowl contender who just got their team chances blown up when Bridgewater went down.
JG feels a bit more like an AJ Feeley or a Kevin Kolb.......
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I don't think a 1st and 4th is a crazy asking price at all. However, there is a hell of a huge value gap between picks 1/97 and 32/128. In the case of picks 32 and 128, would that be "crazy" to anyone?
I personally do not want Garropalo on my Browns, and do not want them to trade the Eagles 1st to get him, but if they did then something of the value of 32/128 would not anger me. Heck, our 2nd is pick 33, so 33 and a 4th? I could live with that if our FO thinks JG is decent.
I personally do not want Garropalo on my Browns, and do not want them to trade the Eagles 1st to get him, but if they did then something of the value of 32/128 would not anger me. Heck, our 2nd is pick 33, so 33 and a 4th? I could live with that if our FO thinks JG is decent.
Ghost Rider said:
McDaniels got canned for the same reason any other coach gets canned, because he was losing. Denver cheated the salary cap for their late 90's SB's under Bowlen: they don't give a crap if someone bends the rules a little.
Peyton Manning showed 0 signs of slipping in his second-to-last year? You obviously didn't have him in fantasy.
Jarod Goff cost the Rams the #15, #43, #45, and #76 picks in the 2016 draft and their 1st and 3rd picks in the 2017 draft.
Bradford went for a #1 and #4. I don't care to research what the Eagles paid for Wentz (or what the Redskins paid for RG3), but it was plenty more than that.
JG (there's your abbreviation, btw), a 2nd round talent QB who spent a couple seasons being groomed by the best organization in football, is still young and is still cheap, and no other good options are available, isn't worth at least a 1st? Crazy.
Bradford went for a #1 and #4. I don't care to research what the Eagles paid for Wentz (or what the Redskins paid for RG3), but it was plenty more than that.
JG (there's your abbreviation, btw), a 2nd round talent QB who spent a couple seasons being groomed by the best organization in football, is still young and is still cheap, and no other good options are available, isn't worth at least a 1st? Crazy.
rockaction
Footballguy
This is what I remember. He wanted to move up to get him in the first round and was thrilled when he got him.
msommer
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
Who isn't?
If someone told us last year that the list would include JAX, they'd have been labeled crazy. Blake should rebound. Denver won't go after another young qb yet, absolutely won't trade with the Patriots for jimmy. Houston might actually be a good fit if they're willing to eat Brock.
Different situation due to timing and that trade doesn't look good in hindsight (nor did it at the time). But yes, if a contender lost their qb in August and jimmy were available, it could work.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
This is where the argument falls apart. NE does not know this, even if they might think so.
History and Brady's age simply is not on their side. Those are facts that they do indeed know. And if they believe Garoppolo truly is a future star then they will be in the Favre/Rodgers position, and knowing how NE has dealt with vets in the past as it pertains to their own self interest they would be choosing Garoppolo over Brady. It gives them another decade and a half of stability at the position and they can burn their picks continuing to maintain the level of excellence that the franchise currently has. You don't sell that out to make a 40 yr old QB feel better as he goes to pasture.
But if they really are willing to deal Garoppolo right now, the reason they are doing it is because they don't see him as a franchise guy.
Boston
Footballguy
You keep saying franchise guy as if he is the next Brady or Rodgers...maybe they see him as a good QB but not a generational talent (still a very valuable commodity in the NFL...especially when you see what a lot of teams are rolling out)...maybe they like Brisset (who they used a third round pick on while still having both Brady and Jimmy G) and see him as a better long-term fit especially when you factor the contract status of both youngsters...or (and I know you seem to want to disregard this but it's the easiest scenario for trading him) they think they are going to get at least three more years of top-end production out of Brady and the timing with Jimmy G just does not mesh...also, Brady is not like every other player as he is their undisputed leader and sets the tone for everything that happens in that locker-room (and yes, I do think BB will move on from him if he loses faith in him...it's just not now)...there are multiple ways this could be looked at and I would not be surprised by any of them (including keeping Jimmy G for another year as insurance) but if I did have to bet I would say they deal him to get assets (i.e. draft picks that make low-money...especially since they will probably be giving good money to players like Hightower and Butler this offseason), groom Brisset and if they are not happy with him address the position again with a higher pick in 2018...
DropKick
Footballguy
Depends on how far out that future is. By all reports, Brady takes very good care of himself and another two or three years seems realistic. As people have mentioned, Garrapolo is only cheap through next season. If Belichick has confidence in Brady (not doubting that), I can see him moving a backup QB for an asset he can use now.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Don't care how much confidence you have in a QB, when he's 40 years old you know it won't go on forever.
Really tough decision to make re: Garoppolo. Can almost guarantee they really like him and think he's starter material.
Really tough decision to make re: Garoppolo. Can almost guarantee they really like him and think he's starter material.
DropKick
Footballguy
Fair points but nothing is ever guaranteed, certainly not 15 years of success from Garoppolo. Few teams hit on consecutive QBs; Montana/Young, Favre/Rodgers. Other extreme is a franchise can languish for decades without the right QB. Personally, I haven't been happy since Marino. One would think NE offers a better environment for success than the more dysfunctional franchises.
I think Brady is still at a high level; they expect him to stay there for a bit (agree that no one beats father time); and they believe his ability to run their offense proficiently will continue even with some loss of physical skills (based on intellect, familiarity, etc.). Moving Garropolo could even be the best thing for Garropolo himself.
That being said, I've long wondered if Brady will ever get the treatment some of the other vets have gotten over the years. Montana, Favre, and even Manning all felt they had more to give when their teams thought it was time to move on.
They may or may not see Garropolo as a franchise guy. I think the whole thing depends more on Brady's ability and the timing of contractual obligations.
DropKick
Footballguy
Can't argue with that but you also can only put so much money into the position. So, if Garroplo needs to be paid before Brady is done you have a problem. Commit the money to two QBs? Move on from Brady? Tough choices - it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
One more point is Belichick himself. How does his mind work? Is he so confident in his ability to mine and develop a player that Garroplo is expendable? I think Belichick approaches things differently than your average guy.
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
Yes, while the Vikings had just lost Teddy Bridgewater in the pre-season on what they believed was a "win now" type of year with the defense they had and Adrian Peterson getting close to retirement/drop off. The Vikings were desperate, and it was so close to the season that asking a team to trade their then-starting QB was going to require more compensation that what it would have cost them during the off-season. QBs are always going to be overpaid and overvalued even when they aren't good because their position is so crucial to team success. But expecting this to set the market is kind of crazy.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Brady reworked his deal recently to minimize his financial outlay due to his suspension. His base salary this year and next year is only $1 million each year. He's signed for 2018 and 2019 for $14 million a year (with a $22 million a year cap charge). The franchise tag number for QB next year should be roughly $21.5 million.
If the Patriots have aspirations to keep both guys for 2018, the most likely outcome is they would tag JG and keep TB12. But that would end up costing them $35+ million in real dollars and $43+ million in a salary cap hit to keep both QBs.
As I mentioned earlier somewhere, when have the Pats been known to allocate that much at a position? If JG really is "all that," then it would make the most sense to keep him and move Brady, but BB and the Pats brass would be crucified by the fan base for getting rid of the most popular player in team history.
If the Patriots have aspirations to keep both guys for 2018, the most likely outcome is they would tag JG and keep TB12. But that would end up costing them $35+ million in real dollars and $43+ million in a salary cap hit to keep both QBs.
As I mentioned earlier somewhere, when have the Pats been known to allocate that much at a position? If JG really is "all that," then it would make the most sense to keep him and move Brady, but BB and the Pats brass would be crucified by the fan base for getting rid of the most popular player in team history.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
It really is a brutal choice if they like JG. But if Favre can be cut for the unproven Rodgers, Manning can be let go to land Luck and Montana can be sent packing to make room for Young you can't say Brady won't end up somewhere else.
I think people are probably underestimating the market for Garoppolo too though. Very limited sample size, but his initial impact is much better than anything guys like Osweiler or Bradford have ever done.
I think people are probably underestimating the market for Garoppolo too though. Very limited sample size, but his initial impact is much better than anything guys like Osweiler or Bradford have ever done.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
If McDaniels leaves to be a HC, IMO there would be a pretty decent chance he would want JG (and he would do pretty well staying in the same system). Of course, that would depend on which team it was. For example, if it were the Rams, they could not realistically give up on Goff given the capital they burned to get him.
Curious how SDC and NO make this list?
Rivers isn't that old, and if his age is the reason, then NYG and PIT belong too, as their QBs are from the same draft class. Granted Brees is older, but still playing at a high level, and if he's old enough for the team to need a backup plan, ten surely NEP is in the same boat?
I will be very surprised if either of those two make a significant QB move.
Workhorse
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
SD allegedly was looking to move Rivers last year. In looking at his contract, the Chargers are probably stuck with him. He has a no trade clause now and is signed through 2019.
The Saints at one point had a crazy annual cap number for Brees. I don't remember how they fixed that, but like Brady is getting along in years.
As for your point, I suppose yes, teams with QBs in their late 30's at some point in the near future will have to worry about bringing in another QB.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Based on the NFL draft teams seem to have settled on two firsts + other stuff as the cost of a top QB prospect. Garoppolo is easily worth a first at this point.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As I remember it, Favre retired and the Packers moved on to Rodgers. Favre then wanted to unretire around training camp and ultimately got traded to the Jets. That situation was more similar to the Brady/Garopollo one (moving on to an unproven commodity).
Young filled in for almost 2 years when Montana was hurt. He went 14-2 in Montana's last season, leading to Montana's trade to KC. Young certainly had proven himself when the Niners opted to keep him over Montana.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Didn't he retire in the first place b/c the Packers were going to start Rodgers? Not sure about that, but it's what I thought I remembered.
Regardless, if you've got a QB you think is a strong long-term it's really tough to let them go.
massraider
Footballguy
Teams have been trading multiple 1sts to move up in the draft for decades.
This never translates into player trades. Deals for veteran QBs are never for the same price as rookies with 5 year deals attached.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Worth it. He's shown his ability. You can draft a crap shoot or trade those picks for a commodity. I don't know if he'll be great - depends what team gets him, and what coaches he has and a myriad of other factors. But face value I think he's worth a 1st and a 4th
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
A lot of pundits had him as a late first round pick in his draft class. He ended up going in the second. Now he has shown some success at the NFL level. I can see a team paying a late first for him. Is he worse than Paxton Lynch?
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Meh.
For whatever reason, the NFL has always valued player development over actual players.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Certainly more successful in the starting role than the quarterback in Los Angeles.
Remember when leading up to the draft a few years ago when "sources said" Mallett was going to be traded to the Texans for the 1st overall? Then a 3rd? And then nothing? IIRC, Rappaport, Peter King and some others were the big cheerleaders at the time saying Mallett was highly coveted by both the Patriots and other teams so any trade compensation would be high. 
Thunderlips
Footballguy
By that rationale......he's been more successful than RGIII in CLE...I'm sure they'd be willing to give up 1.1 for him. Right?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
the word"some" was in there as well. He looked very good against two tough defenses and it was with Gronk out and Edelman banged up.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
I think what you'll end up seeing is JG and the Pats 1 involved in a move for a higher 1 with (depending on the formula) other picks moving in either direction......Remember when leading up to the draft a few years ago when "sources said" Mallett was going to be traded to the Texans for the 1st overall? Then a 3rd? And then nothing? IIRC, Rappaport, Peter King and some others were the big cheerleaders at the time saying Mallett was highly coveted by both the Patriots and other teams so any trade compensation would be high.
That being said, it'll complicate things if:
1) McDaniel goes to another team that needs a QB. This will further complicate things if McDaniels new team needs a QB and he DOESN'T make a strong push for JG. Than I have to imagine JG's trade value will fall thru the floor.
2) CLE and their multitude of picks; particularly the Eagles 1st round pick. CLE isn't moving 1.1 in a NE trade unless they are absolutely blown away. If Philly ends up giving them a top ten pick.....they have enough holes (and enough later draft picks) to draft a BPA with the PHI pick and then play the trade game to move up/down later in the draft to get a QB they like.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Come on. Next you're going to tell me when he goes to Disney...Mickey Mouse wears his ears on his head. Kids got talent....lets not get all Sam Horn about him just quite yet.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
The news wire at KFFL shows how things transpired with Favre:
March 4, 2008: Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre has decided to retire.
March 6, 2008: During a press conference Thursday, March 6, Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre, with a tear rolling down his cheek, officially announced his retirement.
April 3, 2008: Sam Farmer, of the Los Angeles Times, reports retired QB Brett Favre (Packers) may be considering a comeback with another team. According to NFL sources, Favre's agent has quietly inquired with teams about their interest in trading for Favre.
April 4, 2008: Peter King, of SportsIllustrated.com, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) said he is not considering coming out of retirement. "That's the last thing I'm thinking about," Favre told SI.com. "I have no idea where that came from, but it certainly didn't come from me. I'm happy about my decision and I haven't once said, 'I wonder if I made the wrong decision.' I know it's the right one."
July 2, 2008: Chris Mortensen, of ESPN.com, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) appears to have the desire to return to the NFL and play for the Green Bay Packers this season, according to sources close to the Packers and Favre.
July 2, 2008: Updating a previous report, Jason Wilde, of the Wisconsin State Journal, reports retired NFL QB Brett Favre (Packers) contacted the Packers in the past few weeks about returning but the team made it clear they have moved on and Favre asked for his release from the team. The Packers denied the request.
July 22, 2008: Adam Schefter, of the NFL Network, reports the Green Bay Packers have spoken with several teams about possibly trading QB Brett Favre, including an NFC team. It is uncertain how many teams are interested.
(over the next 3 weeks there was a bunch of drama, with Favre asking to be released, the Packers denying his request, then Favre threatening to come to camp, then the Packers calling his bluff and saying that he'd be welcome to re-join the team as Rodgers' backup, etc., etc.)
August 6, 2008: Jay Glazer, of FOXSports.com, reports the New York Jets acquired Green Bay Packers QB Brett Favre Wednesday, Aug. 6. The exact compensation of the deal is not known, but it is believed to be a single draft pick that could increase in value based on the Jets' performance in the 2008 season.
FUBAR
Footballguy
You're overstating things a bit here. Nobody is going that extreme.
Jimmy looked like an nfl starting quarterback for two games, until he got injured. That's something - maybe not much, and a pending franchise tag or expensive contact might mean more.
Personally I'm signing Mike Glennon if I need a starting qb and don't want to draft one.
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Really? Peyton played 17 years. In 2014, he had these stats:
66.2% completion percentage - Right about average, actually 0.9% over his career average
4727 yards - 2nd best yardage in his career
39 TDs - 3rd best TDs in his career
15 INTs - 7th best INTs in his career (better INT% than his career average)
Fantasy wise, that was his 3rd best year of his career, so outside of his 2 record breaking TD seasons of 49 and 55, this was as good as you got for his career. If Peyton's 3rd best fantasy year in his 17 years was signs of slipping then your expectations were way too high. That is normal regression after a record breaking year, not slipping. He slipped in 2015.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
And if memory serves the "thinking about retirement through the off season" dance was performed to perfection by Favre at least the year prior if not the two years prior
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Only if they want to win.
RGIII sucks and is fragile as hell. CLE would be smart to make that deal, then send RGIII to some team desperate for a QB while he still has any perceived value.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Favre did that EVERY YEAR from at least 1997 onwards. He just didn't want to go to training camp. But in 2008 he actually had a press conference and said he was retiring for real. At that point, the Packers moved on and handed the reins to Rodgers. I think that Favre had hoped that either A) the Packers would beg him to come back, or B the Packers would relinquish his rights, which would allow him to sign with another team in the fall. I don't think he expected the Packers to give the job to Rodgers AND hold on to Favre's rights.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Its all goo BB, I believe the team feels strongly it is much more likely than not (barring catastrophic inj) brady plays at a high level for at least a couple more years. You believe he has to fall apart next year because of his age and I concede u could certainly be right. However Brady is a freak when it comes to taking care of his body so i see little reason he can't keep it up a while longer.
Ftr1, I know how they have dealt with most vets in the past, but there are exceptions and Brady will likely be one of them. Having said that I wouldn't rule out the possibility that at age 43, 44 Brady wants to continue playing and NE feels they have better options, but thats 2-3 years away.
Ftr2, Again if they felt certain that Jimmah would be a star the next 10 - 15 years they would keep him, but I don't think they feel that strongly about it and logic says they will take what they can get for him (which will likely be at least a late 1 in imho).
Ftr3, It has nothing to do with making brady feel better (I dont know where u r getting that from) and has everything to do with knowing their best chance to win another championship in the next 2-3 years is with brady starting. Do u think a team like denver would give a 1st for brady next year? I do, in a heartbeat.
Only time will tell so no sense beating our heads over it and I think we reached the point where we agree to disagree.. I think Jimmah is as good as gone and Brady starts and plays well for NE for at least the next couple few years.
We shall see
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massraider
Footballguy
Is Matt Barkley worth a 1st and a 4th?
