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Footballguy
BUT WHAT ABOUT MATT HASSELBECK, MARK BRUNELL AND KURT WARNER????
*cough cough* Doug Pederson, T.J. Rubley, Henry Burris, Craig Nall, etc.
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Patriots looking for a 1st and 4th for Garoppolo (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
*cough cough* Doug Pederson, T.J. Rubley, Henry Burris, Craig Nall, etc.
Dedfin
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Whatever team would trade for him is going to want a deal in place prior to the deal. If not then there likely wont be a trade.
If you are JG you dont have a lot of leverage since you make peanuts this year. If you are JG do you say no to a "very good contract now" or do you wait a year in hopes of a "great contract in a year"?
Right or wrong the contract is part of the trade value.
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flapgreen
Footballguy
You two are both crazy. They're not trading Brady while he's on the verge of winning the MVP and another Super Bowl. Still top 2 qb in league. And they won't keep Jimmy another year only to end up with nothing for him.
Bossman
Footballguy
Indeed.
For those that have not watched Garopollo play in preseasons the last 2 years and a game and a half of regular season this year... he looks like a Brady clone. Which is why many Patriot fans are clamoring for the team to keep him.
Calm in the pocket, goes thru reads quickly and gets rid of the ball. Strong enough arm and accurate. More mobile than Brady (not saying much) but he has decent wheels.
but it's not a question of "if" the Pats will trade him, the question is "which team" the Pats would be willing to trade him to.
If you are the Browns or 49ers, would you rather have a rookie that needs to be groomed for a year or two .... or a plug and play guy that has proven that he has the tools and that he gets it.
As a coach that has only 2 or 3 years to prove himself before he gets the axe ... guess which guy he would prefer.
Now lets talk about who the Patriots should take with the 49ers 1st pick ...
They seem to be set at WR with Malcolm Mitchell and if they can resign Michael Floyd ...
I'm thinking STUD pass rushing DE/LB.
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cheese
Footballguy
I think CLE, CHI and SF are in for a total rebuild which means I'd rather have a guy who is more likely to be good in 2020+. Their rosters are terrible even if you plug in a good QB.
I think NEP has to hope for a team ready to bail on their own young QB imo. I would look at Jacksonville or Denver as the most likely destinations.
They also got unlucky on timing because I would think both Romo and McCarron will be available as trade pieces. The Vikings might do something with either Bradford or Teddy. That's actually a lot of competition for a market that is usually driven by an extreme supply shortage.
I think NEP has to hope for a team ready to bail on their own young QB imo. I would look at Jacksonville or Denver as the most likely destinations.
They also got unlucky on timing because I would think both Romo and McCarron will be available as trade pieces. The Vikings might do something with either Bradford or Teddy. That's actually a lot of competition for a market that is usually driven by an extreme supply shortage.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
In context (since Rodgers went after him). I guess you can say they blew the pick - but getting a legit starting QB for 10+ years out of even the No. 1 overall pick isn't too bad. Smith is probably under-rated on a fantasy football board but in terms of the NFL he's had a pretty successful career. He's been in the playoffs more times than not and had some big games in the playoffs where he carried his team.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't think holding onto him and trading him at the deadline is very realistic. Any team that would want him would want him to spend the entire offseason learning the offense and going through camp with his teammates. It would be tough for a QB to enter the mix in Week 6 and have any kind of success, not to mention that the team trading for him would lose the benefit of having him for the year under his rookie deal. I suppose the only way I could see it happening is if a contending team loses it's starting QB is week 4-5 and gets desperate - but would the Pats want to bail out a team they are contending with just to get future picks?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You are missing an important part of the "theory" though. If a team trades for him and let's him play under the last year of his rookie deal, that team would still have the option to work out a long term extension with him during the season, or after the season - and would have the franchise tag in their back pocket as well if necessary.
Wouldn't it be worse to trade a first round pick away and immediately sign him to a Brock type contract and see him bust, then to trade the first, see how he looks on his cheap contract and then worry about keeping him (when you have the ability to tag him to assure he stays - and after the tag a long term deal can still be worked out). If he busts under the second scenario, it still sucks that you traded away a first, but at least you are not taking a huge cap hit as well.
massraider
Footballguy
Any team that does trade for him does have some options, no question. I find it hard to believe, that after one season of Garappolo, they would have enough info to make the right decision. The tough scenario that you didn't mention is: Jimmy comes in, and after the season, the team isn't sure.
The Redskins have had Cousins for half a decade, and people are unsure of what kind of contract he should get. After Derek Carr's second season, 32 games as a starter, there were many doubters, which was fair. The Broncos were ready to give Osweiler $14 mill after 4 seasons, and 7 starts, which seems like it would have been a mistake. The scouting report on Bortles after last season was quite different than after this season. Bills had Tyrod Taylor for a while, and gave themselves an out, because they just didn't know.
I don't think it's remotely smart to assume that after only 17.5 starts, a team will know if giving a guy $60 mill guaranteed is the right move or not.
Those are teams that had players for years, and many more starts than JG, and no one knew what they had. But after a game and a half, his price tag is a 1st rounder (plus) for a one season audition, for the right to pay him as a top 10 NFL QB. Oh, and he's coming from a position (backup Patriots QB) that has a 100% failure rate as a franchise starter.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I likened it to the Kirk Cousins scenario earlier. In that case they have the franchise tag option to give them another season to decide if a long term commitment is worth the risk. Sure that is an expensive option but QB is the one position that you need to make work if you want to maintain sustained success.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
+1
Alex Smith sure has an impressive career record from a real life perspective.
And he sure won a lot of games on bad 49er teams with mediocre talent around him.
I'm actually rooting for the Chiefs because I want to see Smith get a ring. He was such a good soldier while watching the coaching carousel around him in SF, and he's been phenomenal in KC.
No way that was a blown pick, though to be fair, Aaron Rodgers may have been the better choice in hindsight.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Adding to this, if you trade for him and he's a bust,you'll probably have a pretty high #1 pick the next year too.
massraider
Footballguy
Redskins had 4 seasons with Kirk. 30 starts. Still weren't sure, and franchised him. The Skins had a ton, a TON, more data on their QB than anyone will have on Jimmy G after one season as a starter. The only comparison to Kirk and Jimmy is that the team will have the option to franchise him.
What if Jimmy gets hurt after 10 games? What if he doesn't get to start 16 games? What if he hurts his shoulder in week 1? The team will have no idea if he can play. They won't ahve even seen him in freaking practice, and they traded a 1st him?
Drafting QB is a coin flip at best, but it has a higher success rate than trading for someone else's backup.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
If Josh McDaniels gets the Niner gig, SF should be the team to pair with JG if he has real starting NFL QB value.
Should McDaniels become the Niner coach and not make any attempt to acquire JG, then his market value plummets.
I don't care what Schefter says, NE isn't getting a 1st round pick for JG let alone a 1st+.
His true market value hasn't been set yet. What NE wants is only the asking price.
Should McDaniels become the Niner coach and not make any attempt to acquire JG, then his market value plummets.
I don't care what Schefter says, NE isn't getting a 1st round pick for JG let alone a 1st+.
His true market value hasn't been set yet. What NE wants is only the asking price.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That was the only comparison I was making. Cousins struggled badly earlier in his career. He had one good season in the last season of his rookie contract, his fourth season. (Garoppolo will be in the last year of his rookie contract, his fourth season). The Skins were hesitant to offer Cousins a big guaranteed long term contract based on one good season but didn't want to lose him, so they tagged him. Whoever signs Garoppolo can let him play out the season on a cheap contract and then decide what they will do - with the franchise tag always being a fall back position.
Whether Garropolo is worth the first round pick is surely debatable. I'd be willing to roll the dice on a late first/early second based on his pedigree and what I've seen on the field, but see the counter arguments as well.
My point was that a team trading for him didn't necessarily have to sign him long term right away (which you said was a flaw in the "theory"). In fact I don't think they should. in my opinion that would make it worse.
As to all of your annecdotes about teams not knowing what they have - well that's the way it works. Teams make decisions based on what they think will happen. If they knew for sure how things would turn out, it would be easy.
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Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
The point about the anecdotes is that after years with a player, people are not sure about them, so I don't think it's much of a bonus that a team gets one lousy year with Jimmy G before deciding on a massive, cap-tipping contract.
Yes, it's an educated guess, and teams have to predict the future. My guess is that's why teams like 4 year rookie deals, before they have to lay out huge money. They get 4 years of data to decide if a player is worth a big second deal.
No one is going to have any kind of sample size they would like before the end of 2017, before they need to decide on whether or not this is the Pats backup QB that is actually worth the money. Because none o the others have been, going back 10 years. That's a sample size for you.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Things turned out ok for the Packers (Favre), Niners (Young), Seahawks (Hasselbeck), Chiefs (Green), Redskins (Theismann), and Texans (Schaub), and those are just the ones I can remember.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Joe Summer
Footballguy
I don't think Green, Favre or Young are comparable to Garoppolo -- those guys were acquired by their previous teams to be immediate starters, but ended up on the bench due to injury (Green) or management stupidity (Bucs drafting Testaverde; Glanville clashing with Favre). Teams were willing to trade for those players because they all had a proven track record (Young and Green had each started 19 NFL games, and Favre had just been drafted in the 1st round nine months earlier).
Also, Theismann was never a backup for another team in the NFL. He was drafted by Miami but chose to sign with the Toronto Argonauts and started for them for 3 years before going back to the NFL and the Redskins.
Joe Summer
Footballguy
Rob Johnson is a good comparison (Johnson was drafted 99th, Garoppolo was drafted 62nd; both sat behind Pro Bowl QBs for 3 years).
Man, the Bills gave up the #9 pick for him, and it turned into Fred Taylor. Oof.
Man, the Bills gave up the #9 pick for him, and it turned into Fred Taylor. Oof.
Dedfin
Footballguy
Ghost of Bill Walsh
Footballguy
A 1st, really. He ain't that good. Maybe a 3rd.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
So they should trade him for LESS than the pick they used to obtain him and likey only a few picks better than they would get if he left in free agency?
Thunderlips
Footballguy
AJ Feeley....Kevin Kolb?...Matt Flynn?ghostguy123 said:
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why are you so obsessed with what pick they used on him? That's a really weird line to draw. Guys are moved for less than they cost to acquire all the time. It's not like Jimmy was sitting at home watching TV since he was drafted. He's been their backup QB, and a solid one at that. Seems like a pretty good deal to get back almost what you paid for your 3 year backup QB that you're about to lose in FA anyway.
I do agree with the last part of your statement though, however I don't know enough about compensatory picks to know how accurate it is.
It wasn't two second round picks. It was 2007 pick 8 and a 2007 2nd rounder for 2007 pick 10, 2018 2nd rounder and Schaub. The swap of 8 and 10 is equivalent to a 4th rounder and it's a little harder to quantify swapping this year's second for next year's second, but suffice it to say, the trade was far less in value than 2 2nd round picks. I'd put the value closer to two 4ths.
I guess it was 2 2's and the equivalent of a 4 then.
When the trade is completed, Atlanta and Houston will flip-flop first-round picks in April's draft, and Atlanta will receive Houston's second-round picks in 2007 and 2008. The deal will be announced Thursday. Houston has the No. 8 pick in the first round of the draft, while Atlanta is slotted 10th.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=2807051
massraider
Footballguy
Missed this:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/03/schefter-dilfer-at-odds-over-garoppolo-trade-value/
With an ever-growing army of news gatherers and hot-take artists constantly filling multiple ESPN networks with news and hot takes, statistically speaking there should be more conflict and controversy than there is. Which makes it even more noteworthy when it happens.
Last week, ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested in an appearance on WEEI in Boston that the Patriots want a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. ESPN’s Trent Dilfer thereafter disputed that, also while appearing on WEEI.
“I can promise you nobody’s trading [the Patriots] a first and a fourth for Jimmy,” Dilfer said. “Now, it’s smart that the brass in New England is using Adam to get that headline out there, because now they’re starting the market there . . . and that’s a good point to negotiate from. Now, there’s a handful of players you would trade a first and a fourth for.”
In Schefter’s return visit to WEEI, the news gatherer disputed the hot-take artist.
“I honestly have no idea,” Schefter said regarding Dilfer’s suggestion that Schefter was a mouthpiece for the Patriots. “I can tell you this: Nobody in New England has ever told me a certain price that they would want or are expecting on Jimmy Garoppolo. I can promise you that. The New England brass is not using me to get a price out on Jimmy Garoppolo. So that’s a fact that we can dispel right there. That’s incorrect — factually incorrect.”
Schefter added that he didn’t “report” that the Patriots are getting a one and a four.
“I gave a statement on my football sentiment and my football instincts and my football knowledge,” Schefter said. “Again, that’s what I believe will ultimately be the starting price. That doesn’t meant it will be. I could be wrong. I can tell you this, I am going to be closer than Trent Dilfer is on that and I might be low on the one and a four. . . . I will promise you that they are getting minimum of a first-round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo. Promise you.”
It’s frankly unclear whether Schefter is suggesting that the final haul would be a one and a four or whether it would be the minimum or whether it would be the opener. The bigger point is that an ESPN on-air personality took a shot at a colleague, and the colleague responded.
“Nobody in New England has ever stated to me any price on Jimmy Garoppolo. And nobody has ever said to me from New England, ‘Can you please put this out there so we can drum up the interest?’ It’s amazing that someone I work with and respect as much as I do would say something like that,” Schefter said.
It’s really not all that amazing. Some former players on TV have a problem with reporters who “never played the game,” as if playing in the NFL becomes the magical elixir for understanding how the game works and how to gather accurate information and how to develop proper insights about it.
From Dilfer’s perspective, it pays to tread lightly. There’s a laundry list of guys who can do what he does. Schefter is the king of the ESPN NFL information mountain. If it comes down to Dilfer vs. Schefter, Dilfer would be the one taking his hot takes elsewhere.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/03/schefter-dilfer-at-odds-over-garoppolo-trade-value/
With an ever-growing army of news gatherers and hot-take artists constantly filling multiple ESPN networks with news and hot takes, statistically speaking there should be more conflict and controversy than there is. Which makes it even more noteworthy when it happens.
Last week, ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested in an appearance on WEEI in Boston that the Patriots want a first-round pick and a fourth-round pick for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. ESPN’s Trent Dilfer thereafter disputed that, also while appearing on WEEI.
“I can promise you nobody’s trading [the Patriots] a first and a fourth for Jimmy,” Dilfer said. “Now, it’s smart that the brass in New England is using Adam to get that headline out there, because now they’re starting the market there . . . and that’s a good point to negotiate from. Now, there’s a handful of players you would trade a first and a fourth for.”
In Schefter’s return visit to WEEI, the news gatherer disputed the hot-take artist.
“I honestly have no idea,” Schefter said regarding Dilfer’s suggestion that Schefter was a mouthpiece for the Patriots. “I can tell you this: Nobody in New England has ever told me a certain price that they would want or are expecting on Jimmy Garoppolo. I can promise you that. The New England brass is not using me to get a price out on Jimmy Garoppolo. So that’s a fact that we can dispel right there. That’s incorrect — factually incorrect.”
Schefter added that he didn’t “report” that the Patriots are getting a one and a four.
“I gave a statement on my football sentiment and my football instincts and my football knowledge,” Schefter said. “Again, that’s what I believe will ultimately be the starting price. That doesn’t meant it will be. I could be wrong. I can tell you this, I am going to be closer than Trent Dilfer is on that and I might be low on the one and a four. . . . I will promise you that they are getting minimum of a first-round pick for Jimmy Garoppolo. Promise you.”
It’s frankly unclear whether Schefter is suggesting that the final haul would be a one and a four or whether it would be the minimum or whether it would be the opener. The bigger point is that an ESPN on-air personality took a shot at a colleague, and the colleague responded.
“Nobody in New England has ever stated to me any price on Jimmy Garoppolo. And nobody has ever said to me from New England, ‘Can you please put this out there so we can drum up the interest?’ It’s amazing that someone I work with and respect as much as I do would say something like that,” Schefter said.
It’s really not all that amazing. Some former players on TV have a problem with reporters who “never played the game,” as if playing in the NFL becomes the magical elixir for understanding how the game works and how to gather accurate information and how to develop proper insights about it.
From Dilfer’s perspective, it pays to tread lightly. There’s a laundry list of guys who can do what he does. Schefter is the king of the ESPN NFL information mountain. If it comes down to Dilfer vs. Schefter, Dilfer would be the one taking his hot takes elsewhere.
Either that or he truly believes the Patriots will at worst get a first round pick for JG.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
msommer
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
It was interesting that Schefter said no one told him a price, but he promised it would be a 1st minimum.
Spike
Footballguy
Can you imagine the pressure those players chosen with those picks would be under? :(
