Patriots looking for a 1st and 4th for Garoppolo (1 Viewer)

[stlrams]

I think Cleveland has to pull the trigger for JG that would include #12 pick this year plus some additional drafts picks this year or next (2nd or 3rd etc) .  Here's why.

1) They desperately need a QB.

2) I don't believe ANY of the college QBs coming out this year will be successful NFL starters,

3) They have ton of draft picks so you gamble more with a big stack. 

 

[kyoun1e]

A little game...if you were the GM of a QB needy team and Jimmy G was actually in this year's draft where would you take him?

 

[Anarchy99]

A little game...if you were the GM of a QB needy team and Jimmy G was actually in this year's draft where would you take him?

Several people have come out and said JG is a better choice than the incoming class of QBs.

 

[Interseptopus]

Comments by section:

1) All teams should have a capable back up. Some teams don't ever have capable starters. Cassel stepped in not having started in 8 years and won 11 games. Coaching and the system should give a NE back up ever opportunity to do reasonably well. Cassel was effectively a nobody and NE ranked 8th in points scored, 5th in yards from scrimmage, and 12th in passing yards. And that was with Brady playing in only one quarter of one game in that season. The assumption here is that A) Brissett isn't very good and 2) that NE doesn't acquire another QB over the next two seasons. (I happen to think Brissett would be at least league average and they will draft another QB).

2) You seem convinced NE will need a back up . . . but for how long? To play out a game? A week or two? Half the season? To take over permanently? Once JG is on another team, whatever he does really doesn't matter. Even if he becomes an All Pro player, he wouldn't have been one holding a clipboard while in NE.

3) Whether NE needs or doesn't need a backup doesn't change the fact that trading Garoppolo could still be what is best for the team . . . even if they DO NEED to use a backup. Similarly, Brady doesn't have to be a Top 3 QB for NE to continue to win a lot of games. The Pats won 3 titles with Brady being (take your pick) a good game manager / an above average starter / an occasional difference maker / not prone to making poor decision. New England can go back to being a more balanced team and run the ball more while playing solid defense and still win. The Patriots won rings in years where Brady threw for 2,800, 3,600, and 3,700 yards (and 3,500 this last season but that would have been much higher if he played 4 more games). In Brady's Top 7 seasons in passing yardage, the Pats DID NOT win the Super Bowl.

1) I think NE is banking that they have had success with whomever they put at the QB position, so if they do need one they are confident that they can make due. I think this is a reasonable position but I think it's playing with fire

2) I do think NE will need a backup. I have no idea how long they would need one. My issue with your points here is that you seem to take the position that if JimmyG is a probowl QB on a different team, he wouldn't have been one on NE so it doesn't matter. That line of thinking is false. IMO if he's a probowler on another team, he'd be a HOFer in NE... 

3) The team has had to rely on Brady a LOT over the last several years. Their earlier success was because they had a more balanced approach and didn't need Brady as much. You seem to take the approach that NE will be able to just run the ball more and be a great team. If that was the case why haven't they done that recently? Because their talent at RB and even their OL strengths favored passing the ball more. If they hit RB big this offseason, then yeah that changes the conversation, but that's assuming a lot. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

A little game...if you were the GM of a QB needy team and Jimmy G was actually in this year's draft where would you take him?

That's a tough one because he has the advantage of actually being in the NFL for a couples years and starting a few starts.  I think it's obvious he would be the first QB picked but would he go in the top 5?  If you are truly getting him the same as any other rookie I would say he's going in the top 3.

The reason why I would draft him that high but not be willing to trade that high of a pick for him now is because of the contract that will be required to get him now.  Not only would he cost a significant amount more in a trade but he would most likely cost more than one draft pick.

 

[Interseptopus]

I think Cleveland has to pull the trigger for JG that would include #12 pick this year plus some additional drafts picks this year or next (2nd or 3rd etc) .  Here's why.

1) They desperately need a QB.

2) I don't believe ANY of the college QBs coming out this year will be successful NFL starters,

3) They have ton of draft picks so you gamble more with a big stack. 

Do you think Cleveland is a QB away from being a playoff team? Because if they trade #12 plus additional picks (you used plural), they would be essentially trading 2-3 players taken in the first and 2-3rd rounds for one unproven QB. Versus taking an equal gamble on a rookie and developing them for their system

A little game...if you were the GM of a QB needy team and Jimmy G was actually in this year's draft where would you take him?

I would actually put Jimmy as the 2nd or 3rd ranked QB in this class. I think Trubisky will be the best out of this class. Kizer will be okay I think. After that the rest are busts. This is a weak QB class, I do agree with stlrams on that one. I do think Trubisky and maybe one more will end up being pretty good starters. But none of them are ready to start day 1. Jimmy may be ready to start day 1, but I think his upside is less than the others

That's why I think Cleveland is probably good to draft one this year because they can go with Kessler or some veteran QB for a year. They don't desperately need a QB. They need one. Teams that are in desperate need of a QB are basically Buffalo, Denver and Houston; three teams that are good enough for the playoffs but lack a QB. Chicago, SF, Cleveland, NYJ need QBs but they are in rebuilding modes. Doesn't call for desperation. 

 

[Road Warriors]

If Brady was 35 I would feel completely different about this. I firmly believe Brady will either be hurt, play poorly (by Brady standards). Sure, no signs have been pointing to this thus far. He has been very healthy. He's kind of a freak of nature (usually a red flag for me that something else is going on- let's not be naive people, practically everyone is on something). It's impossible to predict injury (most of the time), but I think one of three scenarios plays out:

1. NE is in need of a backup at some point in the next year or 2, and wishes they had JimmyG.
2. NE is in need of a backup at some point and are thrilled they don't have JimmyG because he's a bust.
3. NE doesn't need a backup over the next 2 years and they come out looking like geniuses. 

I am somewhere between 1 and 2 because I am not really sure JimmyG is the best available QB this offseason, nor do I think he will be probowl/franchise quality. Many people feel like NE will be in scenario 3. That's fine, they're entitled to their opinion. I just think, chances are, when you have someone who is getting into the age most players don't even make it to, having some kind of a backup plan is a good idea. If they like Brissett more, then either: they don't feel highly of Jimmy G, or as mentioned earlier in here by @Bracie Smathers, they just happen to have 3 franchise QBs on their roster. Which is more likely? Because if they felt highly of JimmyG they would try to resign him regardless. You don't let the guy you think can lead your team for 10 more seasons walk because you think your 40 year old QB can play another year or two. 

Getting an early start on the next Internet rumor to try to denigrate Brady?

From my layman's perspective and discussing with other football / displaced Patriots fans, I think most of us think JimmyG will be a good to very good NFL quarterback.  Personally, I've argued that if NE thinks he is "the goods" ( by my definition, another all-time great ), they should move on from Brady and give JG the keys.  I have no idea if he is or has the possibility of becoming "the goods."  

As many have pointed out here, NE will be a contender for a long time with the coaching staff and culture they have built.  They have great depth, are always well prepared, are mentally tough and rarely beat themselves.  Add in an all-time great QB, and you have a championship mix.  If they have a top 10-12 QB on this team, they are still likely to be a regular playoff team, where anything can happen.  I think JimmyG gives them that level of QB play if Brady drops his level of play or gets injured.  

From your scenarios, I expect that 1 or 3 is likely and based solely on injury.  If Brady gets hurt in the next 2 years and the backup is needed for a long stretch, unless Brissett plays better than anyone expects, NE fans will wish they had JG as insurance.  I expect scenario 2 is predicated on JG signing somewhere and looking Osweiller-esqe, but even then I think a portion of NE fans will still believe that had he been in NE, he would have had success.  And that might well be a large portion of fans, TBH.

I don't expect that Brady will physically fall off the cliff, as much of his game is not predicated on physical skills in the first place.  His arm is still strong enough, he can still shuffle in the pocket effectively, and as always, he can pre-snap diagnose a defense as well as any in the game, giving him the advantage of usually knowing where his opening will be.  He does a good job protecting himself, and I see no reason ( other than chronological age an nobody having done it before ) to expect a physical breakdown that lowers his level of play to the point he'd be replaced.

All IMHO...

 

[Hankmoody]

A little game...if you were the GM of a QB needy team and Jimmy G was actually in this year's draft where would you take him?

But there's one big difference - rookies have 4 years before they wreck the team's salary cap, plus a 5th at a reasonable rate..  JG has one, and his risk factor isn't reduced enough to offset that extra time.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Which other team do think doesn't? Is Alex Smith not a franchise QB? He's been leading that franchise for a long time. 
 

No, I'm just saying if that is the standard for "franchise QB", it's hard to imagine Garoppolo not being one. I think it's lazy to just say "because a few other backup QBs bust, Jimmy G will bust". Jimmy G was a second round pick. some mocks had him going late first when he came out. This guy is only a backup because he was drafted by a team that had Tom Brady.

 

[stlrams]

Do you think Cleveland is a QB away from being a playoff team? Because if they trade #12 plus additional picks (you used plural), they would be essentially trading 2-3 players taken in the first and 2-3rd rounds for one unproven QB. Versus taking an equal gamble on a rookie and developing them for their system

I would actually put Jimmy as the 2nd or 3rd ranked QB in this class. I think Trubisky will be the best out of this class. Kizer will be okay I think. After that the rest are busts. This is a weak QB class, I do agree with stlrams on that one. I do think Trubisky and maybe one more will end up being pretty good starters. But none of them are ready to start day 1. Jimmy may be ready to start day 1, but I think his upside is less than the others

That's why I think Cleveland is probably good to draft one this year because they can go with Kessler or some veteran QB for a year. They don't desperately need a QB. They need one. Teams that are in desperate need of a QB are basically Buffalo, Denver and Houston; three teams that are good enough for the playoffs but lack a QB. Chicago, SF, Cleveland, NYJ need QBs but they are in rebuilding modes. Doesn't call for desperation. 

Of course Clev needs more than just QB but everyone knows the only way you win in the NFL is to have a good QB.   Without a QB you'll never have a chance..

 

[Interseptopus]

No, I'm just saying if that is the standard for "franchise QB", it's hard to imagine Garoppolo not being one. I think it's lazy to just say "because a few other backup QBs bust, Jimmy G will bust". Jimmy G was a second round pick. some mocks had him going late first when he came out. This guy is only a backup because he was drafted by a team that had Tom Brady.

It's also lazy to say a player will be successful and a franchise QB because he "was a second round pick. some mocks had him going late first when he came out." 


 

But there's one big difference - rookies have 4 years before they wreck the team's salary cap, plus a 5th at a reasonable rate..  JG has one, and his risk factor isn't reduced enough to offset that extra time.

I think this is one of the best points made here. Teams are taking a HUGE gamble on Jimmy because they will likely have to resign him as part of the trade. So are teams willing to give up Osweiler kind of money for a guy who has shown less than Osweiler did when he signed his deal? I suppose they could let him play at his low salary for one season and then try to resign him or franchise him but a team is unlikely to give up a 1st round pick and more for a potential 1 year rental... or a 1 year rental they will have to pay like a top 5 QB if they franchise him. They wil lwant him locked up long term. 



So let me ask this to those out there: Do you think Jimmy is worth an Osweiler contract today? Would you feel comfortable with your team spending that kind of money on him before he takes a snap next season? 

 

[Interseptopus]

Of course Clev needs more than just QB but everyone knows the only way you win in the NFL is to have a good QB.   Without a QB you'll never have a chance..

Correct. For the most part. Dilfer was not a good QB. He has a ring. Somehow. 

But you said "desperate" for a QB. Cleveland is desperate for a lot of positions. QB may be one that they need, and have needed for decades. Teams desperate for a QB, IMO, are ones that need one now or they will miss a winning window that they have with the rest of their team. MIN after Bridgewater went down is a classic example of a team "desperate" for a QB

Cleveland has so many needs to go all in on a QB does one thing and one thing only: it gives them an expensive punching bag for next season when they will be picking in the top 10 yet again. 

Take your lumps and plan for 2018 to be the year you emerge from the cellar. 

 

[Interseptopus]

I guess to put myself out there in full disclosure where I value JimmyG, I think if NE got a second round pick for him that would be reasonable. Maybe a 2nd and a 4th next year or something. I really don't see him worth a first, but that's my opinion and I don't work in the NFL. I just post on a message board and I'm happy if I'm right half the time. 

 

[stlrams]

Correct. For the most part. Dilfer was not a good QB. He has a ring. Somehow. 

But you said "desperate" for a QB. Cleveland is desperate for a lot of positions. QB may be one that they need, and have needed for decades. Teams desperate for a QB, IMO, are ones that need one now or they will miss a winning window that they have with the rest of their team. MIN after Bridgewater went down is a classic example of a team "desperate" for a QB

Cleveland has so many needs to go all in on a QB does one thing and one thing only: it gives them an expensive punching bag for next season when they will be picking in the top 10 yet again. 

Take your lumps and plan for 2018 to be the year you emerge from the cellar. 

Going back 17 years for the last team with an average QB to win super bowl proves the point...How can you plan to win/emerge from the cellar in 2018 without a QB?  You can't..

 

[Interseptopus]

How can you plan to win/emerge from the cellar in 2018 without a QB?  You can't..

If you've read what I've written above, I have advocated that Cleveland is much better off spending a 1st or even a 2nd round pick on a QB. Taking their lumps in 17 and sitting their QB for most of it not all of the season, and then seeing what he can do in 2018. Going for JimmyG just means that they have to think they can climb out of the cellar now in 17, and I just don't see that happening. I guess maybe it does but I'm not really seeing it. Cleveland is better off keeping their plethora of draft picks and loading up their team to be young and inexperienced this year but then hopefully they take the next step into their 2nd year. 


I think Houston makes the most sense but it's a gamble because they cannot extend him when they trade for him. They must wait until they release Osweiler. 

Denver is a possibility but they seem interested in Romo to some degree and seem like a likely destination. 


Cleveland and SF are just dumpster fires that should stay away from this because they will just waste what could be a decent QB during his prime years surrounded by flaming hot garbage. 

Chicago I really hope trades like 2 1st round draft picks because it's insane and will hurt Chicago in the end. Chicago is not a terribly bad destination either because they have some good pieces on that team... I really think Chicago is a team to watch next year as a biggest rebound team. 

 

[Anarchy99]

From 2005-2014 there were 27 QB's drafted in the first round. I don't know how to define "bust", but 11 of those players did not play this year or aren't even in the league anymore. Teddy Bridgewater's status moving forward is unknown. 

Others that are still active but. Or necessarily huge contributors include EJ Manual, Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, and RGIII.

That's already 16 of the 27 (60%). And that's not even getting to how  good or guys other folks have been (Culter, Bortles, Bradford).

The point being, many first round QBs don't work out. 

 

[Interseptopus]

From 2005-2014 there were 27 QB's drafted in the first round. I don't know how to define "bust", but 11 of those players did not play this year or aren't even in the league anymore. Teddy Bridgewater's status moving forward is unknown. 

Others that are still active but. Or necessarily huge contributors include EJ Manual, Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez, and RGIII.

That's already 16 of the 27 (60%). And that's not even getting to how  good or guys other folks have been (Culter, Bortles, Bradford).

The point being, many first round QBs don't work out. 

How many backups traded or signed to long term deals to be a starter elsewhere worked out from 2005-14?

Off the top of my head...

Matt Cassel
Matt Flynn
Brett Osweiler
Tyrod Taylor
Fitzpatrick? Does he qualify?
Does Cousins qualify?
RGIII was a backup, signed by CLE
McCown
Hasselbeck... if we were going back to 2001 I  guess. I think he's the last one to be actually good. 

Not a real amazing list to be honest. I honestly think JimmyG would be the first player in the last decade and a half to be a backup on a team and find success in the NFL on another team... 

 

[kyoun1e]

But there's one big difference - rookies have 4 years before they wreck the team's salary cap, plus a 5th at a reasonable rate..  JG has one, and his risk factor isn't reduced enough to offset that extra time.

Yup. The salary cap issue is big and it's a reason why many on this board keep ranking Jimmy G. lower.

Was watching NFL Network...or maybe it was some other media source...and several GMs were talking about this and what one of them said really resonated with me. If you nee a QB and you think there's one out there that could be the starter for the next 10 years you go get him. Regardless of the cap situation.

I think that's the over riding feeling for GMs. And that's why they always overpay.

 

[stlrams]

If you've read what I've written above, I have advocated that Cleveland is much better off spending a 1st or even a 2nd round pick on a QB. Taking their lumps in 17 and sitting their QB for most of it not all of the season, and then seeing what he can do in 2018. Going for JimmyG just means that they have to think they can climb out of the cellar now in 17, and I just don't see that happening. I guess maybe it does but I'm not really seeing it. Cleveland is better off keeping their plethora of draft picks and loading up their team to be young and inexperienced this year but then hopefully they take the next step into their 2nd year. 


I think Houston makes the most sense but it's a gamble because they cannot extend him when they trade him. They must wait until they release Osweiler. 

Denver is a possibility but they seem interested in Romo to some degree and seem like a likely destination. 


Cleveland and SF are just dumpster fires that should stay away from this because they will just waste what could be a decent QB during his prime years surrounded by flaming hot garbage. 

Chicago I really hope trades like 2 1st round draft picks because it's insane and will hurt Chicago in the end. Chicago is not a terribly bad destination either because they have some good pieces on that team... I really think Chicago is a team to watch next year as a biggest rebound team. 

I don't view many of the QBs coming out as NFL QB's so the chance of success in finding one this year is low.  That's where we differ primarily.... 

 

[Interseptopus]

I don't view many of the QBs coming out as NFL QB's so the chance of success in finding one this year is low.  That's where we differ primarily.... 

I don't think any are set to start right away but I think this is a way better class than last year and I see 2 emerging as good players. I'm sure there will be some 3-5th rounder that surprises everyone like there always seems to be. I'm not sure how many good QBs on average come out of each draft. But I think the list of successful backups-turned-starters is incredibly low, if at all qualifying as a "list" 


According to Pat fans, Brady is going to be the first player to defy Father Time and play at a high level past the point of any QB that has attempted that in the past, and JimmyG will become the first backup QB to find good success in the NFL as a starter since Matt Hasselbeck. Lots of firsts there

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's also lazy to say a player will be successful and a franchise QB because he "was a second round pick. some mocks had him going late first when he came out." 

Well then good thing I didn't say that then.

 

[Thunderlips]

If you've read what I've written above, I have advocated that Cleveland is much better off spending a 1st or even a 2nd round pick on a QB. Taking their lumps in 17 and sitting their QB for most of it not all of the season, and then seeing what he can do in 2018. Going for JimmyG just means that they have to think they can climb out of the cellar now in 17, and I just don't see that happening. I guess maybe it does but I'm not really seeing it. Cleveland is better off keeping their plethora of draft picks and loading up their team to be young and inexperienced this year but then hopefully they take the next step into their 2nd year. 


I think Houston makes the most sense but it's a gamble because they cannot extend him when they trade for him. They must wait until they release Osweiler. 

Denver is a possibility but they seem interested in Romo to some degree and seem like a likely destination. 


Cleveland and SF are just dumpster fires that should stay away from this because they will just waste what could be a decent QB during his prime years surrounded by flaming hot garbage. 

Chicago I really hope trades like 2 1st round draft picks because it's insane and will hurt Chicago in the end. Chicago is not a terribly bad destination either because they have some good pieces on that team... I really think Chicago is a team to watch next year as a biggest rebound team. 

If they believe JG can be the QB of the future....you make a trade under the argeement that you'll sign him to a long term deal.

I don't think there's any scenario where a team will give up a 1+ for JG and then NOT sign him to a new deal.  It's not worth giving up a 1+ to see if the guy can play for you for a year.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

#1

If you draft a QB that high the cheap contract is a bonus...you're hoping to get a guy who win.

 

[Anarchy99]

How many backups traded or signed to long term deals to be a starter elsewhere worked out from 2005-14?

Off the top of my head...

Matt Cassel
Matt Flynn
Brett Osweiler
Tyrod Taylor
Fitzpatrick? Does he qualify?
Does Cousins qualify?
RGIII was a backup, signed by CLE
McCown
Hasselbeck... if we were going back to 2001 I  guess. I think he's the last one to be actually good. 

Not a real amazing list to be honest. I honestly think JimmyG would be the first player in the last decade and a half to be a backup on a team and find success in the NFL on another team... 

Going back 20 years, not a lot of pure backup QBs have gone on to prominence, but there were a few.

Acquired by Trade:

The Three Matt's
Matt Hasselbeck (3 Pro Bowl Selections)
Matt Schaub (2 Pro Bowls)
Matt Cassel (1 Pro Bowl)

Acquired in Free Agency:
Marc Bulger (2 Pro Bowls)
Trent Green (2 Pro Bowls)
Jake Delhomme (1 Pro Bowl)
Tyrod Taylor (1 Pro Bowl)

Yes, there were some notable missteps along the way (Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Matt Flynn, Brock Osweiler to name a few) . . . but I don't think the hit rate or miss rate in signing a back up is all that worse than drafting a first round QB.

Garoppolo is stuck behind Brady. If the Packers several years ago opted to stick with Favre and traded Rosgers, would that have been considered a bad trade for the team acquiring Rodgers? I am not suggesting Garoppolo is on par with Rodgers, but sometimes players get behind a player and it's not their fault they can't get on the field.

 

[bostonfred]

JG might be the highest drafted backup qb since Aaron Rodgers. Is there another one I'm missing? 

 

[bostonfred]

Just saw David made a similar point directly above mine. Oops.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

#1

If you draft a QB that high the cheap contract is a bonus...you're hoping to get a guy who win.

Houston took exactly that risk, and it didn't pan out. Do they get to say, "whoops!", get up, and walk away from the table? Not so much. Smack in the middle of what should be their contending window, they've tied a $19M boat anchor to their leg.

As was just said, it's inconceivable that a team would trade high draft pick(s) for JG and not immediately sign him to a longer-term deal. So to pay a high 1st-rounder for him, you've got to not only believe that he's got a better chance of being a franchise guy than the best QB you could land in the draft, but that the chance is so much better that it justifies not just the picks but an additional 10%+ of your cap over the next 3 seasons.

Thought experiment: Knowing only what we knew about them last April, if they would have immediately had to sign Goff and Wentz to $70M contracts, does anyone believe the Rams or Eagles would have paid the price they did to move up to #1 and #2?

 

[Interseptopus]

Yes, there were some notable missteps along the way (Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Matt Flynn, Brock Osweiler to name a few) . . . but I don't think the hit rate or miss rate in signing a back up is all that worse than drafting a first round QB.

Garoppolo is stuck behind Brady. If the Packers several years ago opted to stick with Favre and traded Rosgers, would that have been considered a bad trade for the team acquiring Rodgers? I am not suggesting Garoppolo is on par with Rodgers, but sometimes players get behind a player and it's not their fault they can't get on the field.

The first bolded is exactly the point I am trying to make. That there are a lot of first and second round QB misses in the draft, and there is equal risk in trading or signing a backup to be a starter. A lot of people in here are saying that the NFL draft is unimpressive so instead of blowing a pick on what is going to be an obvious bust why not take JimmyG who, in their opinion, is a safer option. History would say there's equal risk to both moves. Jimmy is older and more expensive and comes at a greater cost (1st rounder plus extra) than a rookie. 

Regarding the second bolded, I couldn't agree more. There are a lot of RBs in the league that never got a shot as a starter and very well may have been very good. A lot of the NFL isn't about talent, it's about luck in where you land. If Jimmy is a good to above good starting QB in the league, he was kind of unlucky having to spend his first 3 seasons not really doing much in the NFL. Granted, playing for NE and winning games and superbowls isn't really "unlucky" but if he wants to compete then he's kind of unlucky versus someone like Dak who had a perfect situation. 

 

[Interseptopus]

JG might be the highest drafted backup qb since Aaron Rodgers. Is there another one I'm missing? 

Cousins? Brohm? Brohm didn't work out but he was drafted to be a backup. 

Lynch has been nothing but a backup. He was taken 1st round. Tebow?

EJ Manuel. I'm sure I could go on

 

[bostonfred]

You usually don't draft a qb for his year 1 production.  You draft him hoping for long term production.  Once in a while you get lucky right away with Wilson, rg3, Dak, luck, Prescott, kaepernick, but even then you're not guaranteed the guy will continue to be good.  

Getting JG with experience you didn't have to pay him to get, a year left cheap and leverage in negotiating his second contract has value. It's not the same value as getting 5 years on a first round rookie, but it definitely has value, and much more than if they waited a year. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Cousins? Brohm? Brohm didn't work out but he was drafted to be a backup. 

Lynch has been nothing but a backup. He was taken 1st round

Cousins was a third round pick. Lynch was likely not drafted to be a backup, and he did start a couple of games. The new HC says that he and Siemien will battle it out in camp to see whp starts in 2017.

 

[Interseptopus]

You usually don't draft a qb for his year 1 production.  You draft him hoping for long term production.  Once in a while you get lucky right away with Wilson, rg3, Dak, luck, Prescott, kaepernick, but even then you're not guaranteed the guy will continue to be good.  

Getting JG with experience you didn't have to pay him to get, a year left cheap and leverage in negotiating his second contract has value. It's not the same value as getting 5 years on a first round rookie, but it definitely has value, and much more than if they waited a year. 

So you would advocate for a team to trade a first and possibly more for him, and then not resign him immediately; risk him walking away from you the following year or having to franchise him and pay him WAY too much money? 

Leverage in negotiating his second contract only favors JG if he plays out his last year on his new team under his current contract


 Let me ask you, if Cleveland does trade for JG do you really think JG would voluntarily stay there the following season, or test the open market/force CLE to use the franchise tag? I'd vote for the later. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Cousins was a third round pick. Lynch was likely not drafted to be a backup, and he did start a couple of games. The new HC says that he and Siemien will battle it out in camp to see whp starts in 2017.

Rodgers was not drafted to be a backup either. Thanks for making my point. 

 

[Anarchy99]

So you would advocate for a team to trade a first and possibly more for him, and then not resign him immediately; risk him walking away from you the following year or having to franchise him and pay him WAY too much money? 

Leverage in negotiating his second contract only favors JG if he plays out his last year on his new team under his current contract

By NOT giving JG an immediate extension, you get him for a year to see what how he does. If he is great, then you happily pay him a market value deal next year or franchise him. If he isn't great, then all you lose is the draft pick(s). 

 

[Bronco Billy]

The first bolded is exactly the point I am trying to make. That there are a lot of first and second round QB misses in the draft, and there is equal risk in trading or signing a backup to be a starter. A lot of people in here are saying that the NFL draft is unimpressive so instead of blowing a pick on what is going to be an obvious bust why not take JimmyG who, in their opinion, is a safer option. History would say there's equal risk to both moves. Jimmy is older and more expensive and comes at a greater cost (1st rounder plus extra) than a rookie. 

Regarding the second bolded, I couldn't agree more. There are a lot of RBs in the league that never got a shot as a starter and very well may have been very good. A lot of the NFL isn't about talent, it's about luck in where you land. If Jimmy is a good to above good starting QB in the league, he was kind of unlucky having to spend his first 3 seasons not really doing much in the NFL. Granted, playing for NE and winning games and superbowls isn't really "unlucky" but if he wants to compete then he's kind of unlucky versus someone like Dak who had a perfect situation. 

I'd say the risk with picking up a second string QB as your franchise QB is greater than the rookie option.  The reason being that there is NFL level film and book on the reserve QBs.  Teams chose that route having seen the QB perform at the NFL level - even if it is TC and PS and perhaps not too much more - and those guys still crapped out at the same or higher rate than rookies.

Attach that to losing the high draft pick and committing to a high priced extension and I can  easily see the rookie being the more desirable course of action. 

.

 

[Interseptopus]

By NOT giving JG an immediate extension, you get him for a year to see what how he does. If he is great, then you happily pay him a market value deal next year or franchise him. If he isn't great, then all you lose is the draft pick(s). 

This is the risk that I believe outweighs the reward. I really don't believe he stays on a team like CLE after next season unless CLE is going to overpay or franchise him.
Going from the best franchise over the last decade to the absolute worst... why would you stay if you can get an equally good deal somewhere else in the FA market? Make CLE pay more, a lot more, to stay.

Or... sign a deal, maybe a 2-3 year deal even, that pays you more money and gives you a chance to prove yourself before you sign your "big" contract. 

I don't think any team gives up a 1st, or even a 1st plus more without extending JG as a requirement.

 

[Anarchy99]

A very similar situation just happened involving the Browns. They traded for Jamie Collins without an extension first, yet both side liked the situation and Collins agreed to a four year extension. Granted, Collins was already proven, but he was willing to stay in Cleveland. Did the Browns overpay to keep him?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Rodgers was not drafted to be a backup either. Thanks for making my point. 

Well they still had Favre and he sat behind him three seasons. If Favre hadn't announced his retirement giving the Packers an out, they may have been in a similar situation as this: Cast aside a popular Hall of Famer to go with the youngster or trade Rodgers away while he still had value.

 

[bostonfred]

So you would advocate for a team to trade a first and possibly more for him, and then not resign him immediately; risk him walking away from you the following year or having to franchise him and pay him WAY too much money? 

Leverage in negotiating his second contract only favors JG if he plays out his last year on his new team under his current contract


 Let me ask you, if Cleveland does trade for JG do you really think JG would voluntarily stay there the following season, or test the open market/force CLE to use the franchise tag? I'd vote for the later. 

Osweiler just got 4 years, 72 million with 37 guaranteed.  He had similar experience (a couple good games playing behind a HoF QB) and a similar pedigree but no years left on his contract.  

I don't know the exact JG contract numbers, but he has one year left at a couple million.  Call it 2 million. Then you can franchise him next year at 23 million. 

He wants 4 years 72 million like brock. But to get that, he needs to play well enough to get a big contract in free agency.  If he bombs like osweiler did in year 1, that may never happen.  So you tell him look, if you want to play out one year at 2 million, fine.  If you play well, we will franchise you and now you've got 2 years, 25 million.  We might even franchise you again for 30 million or whatever it is - and now it's 3 years 55 million - which is only 1 million more than Brock got through 3 years.  

So in the best case, if you play great 3 straight years, but keep holding out got that big contact, the most you'll get is your 18 million a year.  

But if anything goes wrong with that plan - you get injured, you don't play well, your top receiver gets injured, the Minnesota offensive line all get hurt in back to back to back weeks, whatever - you'll get less.  

So if I offer you 18 million a year, would you take it?  You'd be stupid not to. You'd be stupid not to take 17, too. I already have you at 1 year for 2 million, or 2 for 25 if I franchise you.  So let's add 2 for 36 to that and say 4 years, 60 million, with 20 guaranteed over the first 2 years. That's a much better deal for the team than paying osweiler 4 for 72 with 37 guaranteed, but also better for JG than playing out his final year and banking his family's future that nothing goes wrong. 

As a frame of reference, last year's pick 1.2, Carson Wentz, got 27 million with 15.5 guaranteed.  That's better than 4/60/20, which is better than bidding on a free agent.  Which is why I said there's value in having that one cheap year left on his contract.  It's not as good as having a guy under a rookie deal, but it's got real value to the acquiring team. 

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

You can also tag him twice.  You don't have to commit long-term at the time of a trade.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

You can also tag him twice.  You don't have to commit long-term at the time of a trade.

I mean, you could, but I suspect there's a reason that in a quarter-century of its existence, no QB has ever received the tag in back-to-back seasons (Cousins might become the first in a few days' time).

I already find it hard to believe that any team would trade franchise-changing draft capital for JG and then be unwilling to extend him. Given that the franchise tag exists largely to give owners additional leverage, I'd question the sanity of any organization that decided to forgo that leverage on an asset they paid so much to acquire in the first place.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Hard to believe this is still an argument after 19 pages.

A team with a history of overselling backup QBs who briefly look good in their QB friendly system is looking to sell a QB who briefly looked good in their QB friendly system despite having a 40 year old starter and no other real appealing QB of the future behind him.  These dots aren't exactly difficult to connect.

Agreed. Maybe JG will turn into a franchise QB. But the Pats would not trade him if they believed that to be the case, not for any price. So some poor team is going to fork over a first round pick plus more for a QB2. And every elite athlete like Brady thinks they will defy father time, but almost no one ever does at least not naturally. He can eat right and practice hard but it's going to be a downhill slide after 40. I hope he makes it to 42 as a starter, but not if his abilities fall off a cliff.

 

[Anarchy99]

Agreed. Maybe JG will turn into a franchise QB. But the Pats would not trade him if they believed that to be the case, not for any price. So some poor team is going to fork over a first round pick plus more for a QB2. And every elite athlete like Brady thinks they will defy father time, but almost no one ever does at least not naturally. He can eat right and practice hard but it's going to be a downhill slide after 40. I hope he makes it to 42 as a starter, but not if his abilities fall off a cliff.

There has been 20+ pages of discussion on exactly why the Pats would trade him if they considered him a franchise QB.

 

[Boston]

There has been 20+ pages of discussion on exactly why the Pats would trade him if they considered him a franchise QB.

Yup...and another 20 showing how there is not a history of Patriot QBs in Garropolo's situation outside of Cassel who has been discussed...everyone else was a back-up...they were not looked at anywhere close to how Jimmy G is being looked at right now...

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Hard to believe this is still an argument after 19 pages.

A team with a history of overselling backup QBs who briefly look good in their QB friendly system is looking to sell a QB who briefly looked good in their QB friendly system despite having a 40 year old starter and no other real appealing QB of the future behind him.  These dots aren't exactly difficult to connect.

Haha, are there a lot of teams you think are running QB unfriendly systems? If so, maybe you could explain the reasoning behind why these teams would run qb unfriendly systems? TIA

Did you watch how well he played vs Ari & Mia? Not a huge Jimmy G guy, certainly not convinced he will be all that and a bag of chips. However, he made some BIG time throws (IE for any system) while he was in there and I don't understand how anyone who actually watched him play could say otherwise. Unless.......

 

[kyoun1e]

But the Pats would not trade him if they believed that to be the case, not for any price. 

Except you're forgetting that Bill Belichick probably thinks he can find the next Tom Brady in rounds 2-4 over the next three years.

The guy doesn't lack for confidence.

 

[Thunderlips]

By NOT giving JG an immediate extension, you get him for a year to see what how he does. If he is great, then you happily pay him a market value deal next year or franchise him. If he isn't great, then all you lose is the draft pick(s). 

Losing a first isn't exactly a "meh....no biggie".  

If a team is going to trade for him and give up a 1st.....they're going to want to A) make the trade contingent on him signing a deal while B) making sure they get the best possible JG cotnract for the team.  

If you're not sure about his ability......you're better off just drafting the rookie QB (or BPA in the draft and waiting a year). 

 

[Anarchy99]

Losing a first isn't exactly a "meh....no biggie".  

If a team is going to trade for him and give up a 1st.....they're going to want to A) make the trade contingent on him signing a deal while B) making sure they get the best possible JG cotnract for the team.  

If you're not sure about his ability......you're better off just drafting the rookie QB (or BPA in the draft and waiting a year). 

Things have to have offer something for all parties involved. In this case, there are three parties that have to ask "what's in it for me?" The team acquiring JG needs to get a QB that can be productive on the field and have a long-term future with the team. Of course, they would want to get JG to sign a team friendly extension. The Pats need to get something worthwhile back in return, as they are not forced to trade Garoppolo, meaning the team getting him needs JG more than NE does. And Garoppolo needs to get a chance to play and a chance to get paid fair market value.

From Garoppolo's perspective, he believes he has a long-term future as an NFL starter, why would he sign a new deal for low dollars. I don't know what the "going rate" for a starting NFL QB is these days, but if he thinks he is worth $18 million a year, I doubt he signs an extension for low end dollars. No matter where he plays, by not signing anything he would be in line for $23 million for one season if he is franchised. So folks thinking he will sign a team friendly deal (with NE or anywhere else for that matter) at 3 years for $25 million total are nuts.

The downside risk for JG is that he doesn't pan out and then has to go back to being a back up. So IMO, he might take a slight discount to sign an extension with a lot of guaranteed money . . . but I doubt he would sign an extension just to have a mediocre contract.

Who knows, maybe there is a team that will trade high end picks AND pay him full market value in an extension. That's where things get dicey for his new team, as they are ponying up both picks and a big contract. That's why I suggested that maybe they roll the dice with just picks to start and then see how things go.

 

[FUBAR]

If you're not sure about his ability......you're better off just drafting the rookie QB (or BPA in the draft and waiting a year). 

Browns waited on a qb last year, it seems unlikely they'd wait again but maybe.  Both Darnold and Rosen look to be better than the QBs this year but that's no guarantee they will look as good next year. 

 

[ghostguy123]

If you are JG, it would be a pretty easy decision to sign a "team friendly deal".  That does NOT mean some sort of lowball.

Even if he was 95% sure he could get 4 years and 80 million next year, IMO he would be a complete idiot to not sign something this offseason like 4 years 50 million with a nice chunk guaranteed, or 5 years 60 million with a nice chuck guaranteed. 

It's simple risk/reward and simple common sense.  It would suck far greater to have something bad happen (injury, illness, play like crap if Brady got hurt......) than it would suck to miss out on 25% or so more money over the next 4-5 years. 

I am 100% convinced that any team that trades for him will be signing him to an extension immediately.  It makes far too much sense for both parties.