Patriots looking for a 1st and 4th for Garoppolo (1 Viewer)

[Run It Up]

I would love for Jimmy to sign a team friendly deal, ive discussed it several times before on here, in multiple threads.

It just doesn't add up, its not possible for the team or for Jimmy to make it work.

 

[ghostguy123]

I would love for Jimmy to sign a team friendly deal, ive discussed it several times before on here, in multiple threads.

It just doesn't add up, its not possible for the team or for Jimmy to make it work.

I meant when he is traded.  Obviously the Pats can't do that

 

[ghostguy123]

And I would imagine JG is PRAYING LIKE A M"Fer every day that he gets traded. 

 

[Thunderlips]

Things have to have offer something for all parties involved. In this case, there are three parties that have to ask "what's in it for me?" The team acquiring JG needs to get a QB that can be productive on the field and have a long-term future with the team. Of course, they would want to get JG to sign a team friendly extension. The Pats need to get something worthwhile back in return, as they are not forced to trade Garoppolo, meaning the team getting him needs JG more than NE does. And Garoppolo needs to get a chance to play and a chance to get paid fair market value.

From Garoppolo's perspective, he believes he has a long-term future as an NFL starter, why would he sign a new deal for low dollars. I don't know what the "going rate" for a starting NFL QB is these days, but if he thinks he is worth $18 million a year, I doubt he signs an extension for low end dollars. No matter where he plays, by not signing anything he would be in line for $23 million for one season if he is franchised. So folks thinking he will sign a team friendly deal (with NE or anywhere else for that matter) at 3 years for $25 million total are nuts.

The downside risk for JG is that he doesn't pan out and then has to go back to being a back up. So IMO, he might take a slight discount to sign an extension with a lot of guaranteed money . . . but I doubt he would sign an extension just to have a mediocre contract.

Who knows, maybe there is a team that will trade high end picks AND pay him full market value in an extension. That's where things get dicey for his new team, as they are ponying up both picks and a big contract. That's why I suggested that maybe they roll the dice with just picks to start and then see how things go.

To me, I don't think a team thinks that way.  I think they'd have faith enough in their scouting/personnel to determine whether or not JG will be their starting QB for the foresable future before they trade for him......and if they think he's ready to be productive (which I can't imagine any team is trading for him and then signing him to a contract is going to have him sit for a year) getting him relatively cheap for this next year is a bonus.

 

[Anarchy99]

I meant when he is traded.  Obviously the Pats can't do that

If I am Garoppolo, I would tell my new overlords that 

1) I am getting only $885K to play in 2017.
2) I would get $23M if franchised for 2018 (which would all be guaranteed).
3) Assuming the going rate for starting QB's on the open market is $18M a year, I will play for 2 years at $16M a year.
4) So I will sign a 3 year extension adding up those numbers . . . $23M + $16M + $16M = 3 years for $55M with half of that guaranteed.
5) That makes me your property for 4 years for $56 million, which works out to $14M a year.

IMO, that's a win-win.

 

[Anarchy99]

To me, I don't think a team thinks that way.  I think they'd have faith enough in their scouting/personnel to determine whether or not JG will be their starting QB for the foresable future before they trade for him......and if they think he's ready to be productive (which I can't imagine any team is trading for him and then signing him to a contract is going to have him sit for a year) getting him relatively cheap for this next year is a bonus.

Maybe I am disillusioned by how the Patriots do business. Because that's exactly what NE would do. They wait until absolutely necessary to re-sign most players. They would make the QB prove himself before giving him the money and a new contract. But that's how Bill does things.

 

[ghostguy123]

Maybe I am disillusioned by how the Patriots do business. Because that's exactly what NE would do. They wait until absolutely necessary to re-sign most players. They would make the QB prove himself before giving him the money and a new contract. But that's how Bill does things.

Not sure you can really say that.  If he didn't have Brady the last 15+ years we have no idea how he would have handled contracts for his QBs. 

 

[Thunderlips]

Maybe I am disillusioned by how the Patriots do business. Because that's exactly what NE would do. They wait until absolutely necessary to re-sign most players. They would make the QB prove himself before giving him the money and a new contract. But that's how Bill does things.

Why would a team waste a 1+ for 1 year of service? Heck, if I was JG and a team traded for me but wasn't content enough in my ability to give me a multi-year......I'm not giving them an inch when it comes time for free agency. I'm playing my hardest and then hoping Brady retires so I can go back to NE as a FA.  Sure they could franchise him, but unless he blew the doors off the league in the past year.....everyone would be questioning whether or not he'd be worth the 20+M franchise tag for two years.

 

[ghostguy123]

If I am Garoppolo, I would tell my new overlords that 

1) I am getting only $885K to play in 2017.
2) I would get $23M if franchised for 2018 (which would all be guaranteed).
3) Assuming the going rate for starting QB's on the open market is $18M a year, I will play for 2 years at $16M a year.
4) So I will sign a 3 year extension adding up those numbers . . . $23M + $16M + $16M = 3 years for $55M with half of that guaranteed.
5) That makes me your property for 4 years for $56 million, which works out to $14M a year.

IMO, that's a win-win.

I would maybe just base it on a percentage.  I would say "obviously you are trading for me and giving up good picks to do so, so you must think I am pretty good, and you plan to keep me around for a while.   Pay me 75% of what I would get on the open market if I was an URFA right now.  Say the going rate is 5 years, 100 million, 50 million guaranteed (just as an example).  Pay me 5 years, 75 million, 37.5 million guaranteed. 

Win win for both.  JG guarantees himself mega riches, and the team getting him would have the ability to sign more/better free agents over the next 5 years which would be huge if JG actually ends up being good. 

edit.....actually, would probably be even less than 75% since he makes peanuts this year.  Maybe closer to 60%

 

[Run It Up]

Why would a team waste a 1+ for 1 year of service?

Well I think we need to quash this idea as it keeps getting repeated page after page.

1 year + the tag is still below average QB market. Ignoring that if he is good, you get a legit shot at resigning him to a deal.

At the risk of losing a 1st for a guy you don't have to groom for 3 years to know if hes worthless.

 

[ghostguy123]

Well I think we need to quash this idea as it keeps getting repeated page after page.

1 year + the tag is still below average QB market. Ignoring that if he is good, you get a legit shot at resigning him to a deal.

If I am JG, I would legitimately consider holding out and refusing to play for them if they did that.  If JG does not play one snap this year, he would be guaranteed to get a decent deal somewhere next year. 

If I am JG, signing long term is an absolute must.

 

[ghostguy123]

Guys, a deal will be done before any trade happens here.  Makes far too much sense.

 

[buck naked]

PRAYING LIKE A M"Fer

Makes no sense whatsoever

 

[Bossman]

Please tell me about this thing called the salary cap.  You mean the Patriots want a bounty of draft picks to get rid of a guy they can't afford? 

They aren't overpaying any skill positions on offense outside of Gronk and Tom and they just got rid of two big contract extensions, Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins that were due on defense.  

If they thought he was a franchise QB they would make room.  

Name a young, healthy franchise QB that has been traded that had no off field issues just because a team didn't want to pay them?   

Rookies have a fixed salary. Not to mention the Patriots typically trade back and out to picks in future drafts. 

Chargers had Brees with Rivers coming up. Couldn't keep both. Had Brees not been injured it would have been a much harder decision on who to keep.

None of your arguments hold water. 

Name a team that had 2 franchise QB's and paid to keep both of them.  ... Can't happen. Won't happen. Team would be crippled.

 

[Bossman]

Why would a team waste a 1+ for 1 year of service? .

Ask the Vikings who traded for Sam Bradford. It happens. It will happen again.

 

[Bossman]

Why would a team searching for a long-term solution at quarterback want Jimmy Gorrapolo?

I will start by making the case of one NFL QB skill that he displays that I really like.  He can make a pre-snap read and get rid of the ball quickly.

Unfortunately, once the play begins and he has to get into his second read he doesn't get rid of the ball quickly enough as he waits until his WR separates and breaks open before pulling the trigger.

On slow developing plays, he can buy time by stepping up into the pocket but you can question his pocket awareness if there is edge pressure.

He shows 'some' escapability but even if his receiver breaks open deep, his deep ball accuracy sucks.  It is bad.

His footwork looks solid up until the point of the game where he takes a decent shot and then afterward, he looks tentative and his short accuracy suffers.  Add, if he takes a really good shot he appears brittle.

Is anyone seriously making a case for Jimmy Gorrapolo to become an NFL franchise quarterback?

I don't see it.

"Against the Cardinals and Dolphins, Garoppolo showed impressive command of the offense, poise versus the blitz, a lightning-quick release, light feet to slide in the pocket and escape pressure, excellent ball placement on tight-window throws and the arm talent to change speed on his passes. Even better, he worked through his progressions, kept his eyes up, spread the ball around to all of his targets and even showed the subtle veteran move of looking off a safety on a touchdown throw to Martellus Bennett."

The article quoted seems to contradict all of your Garopollo hate.

The article confirms what I watched. Not sure what you are seeing.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think people are getting hung over the "back up" label being affixed to Garoppolo's forehead. Had he been drafted by another team, he could easily have been starting someplace else by now.

JG was the 5th QB taken around the league. Looking at other quarterbacks in the league right now, here's where there were pick up . . .

Prescott (8th QB taken in his draft)
Siemian (7th)
Wilson (6th)
Cousins (8th)
Dalton (5th)
Taylor (11th)
Brady (7th)
Romo (Undrafted)
Fitzpatrick (14th)
Cassel (13th)
Osweiler (5th)
Kaepernick (6th)

That's a decent amount of players that were picked up later (looking only at QB slot not actual draft slot) than Garoppolo. Not all of them worked out long-term, but enough of them did to say that QB's don't have to be one of the top guys in a particular draft to still do well. 

 

[Thunderlips]

Ask the Vikings who traded for Sam Bradford. It happens. It will happen again.

Bradford is under for two years. They have him for this year.  

ETA: Bradford is also a bit of an outlier as that entire situation didn't happen until training camp and they were dealing a pick from NEXT year in an effort to win that year.  I don't think they make the same move if Bridgewater goes down like that a month before the draft.

 

[Bronco Billy]

I think people are getting hung over the "back up" label being affixed to Garoppolo's forehead. Had he been drafted by another team, he could easily have been starting someplace else by now.

JG was the 5th QB taken around the league. Looking at other quarterbacks in the league right now, here's where there were pick up . . .

Prescott (8th QB taken in his draft)
Siemian (7th)
Wilson (6th)
Cousins (8th)
Dalton (5th)
Taylor (11th)
Brady (7th)
Romo (Undrafted)
Fitzpatrick (14th)
Cassel (13th)
Osweiler (5th)
Kaepernick (6th)

That's a decent amount of players that were picked up later (looking only at QB slot not actual draft slot) than Garoppolo. Not all of them worked out long-term, but enough of them did to say that QB's don't have to be one of the top guys in a particular draft to still do well. 

I think you just put forth an excellent argument as to why a team shouldn't give up a very high draft pick to get someone else's backup.

 

[Interseptopus]

Osweiler just got 4 years, 72 million with 37 guaranteed.  He had similar experience (a couple good games playing behind a HoF QB) and a similar pedigree but no years left on his contract.  

I don't know the exact JG contract numbers, but he has one year left at a couple million.  Call it 2 million. Then you can franchise him next year at 23 million. 

He wants 4 years 72 million like brock. But to get that, he needs to play well enough to get a big contract in free agency.  If he bombs like osweiler did in year 1, that may never happen.  So you tell him look, if you want to play out one year at 2 million, fine.  If you play well, we will franchise you and now you've got 2 years, 25 million.  We might even franchise you again for 30 million or whatever it is - and now it's 3 years 55 million - which is only 1 million more than Brock got through 3 years.  

So in the best case, if you play great 3 straight years, but keep holding out got that big contact, the most you'll get is your 18 million a year.  

But if anything goes wrong with that plan - you get injured, you don't play well, your top receiver gets injured, the Minnesota offensive line all get hurt in back to back to back weeks, whatever - you'll get less.  

So if I offer you 18 million a year, would you take it?  You'd be stupid not to. You'd be stupid not to take 17, too. I already have you at 1 year for 2 million, or 2 for 25 if I franchise you.  So let's add 2 for 36 to that and say 4 years, 60 million, with 20 guaranteed over the first 2 years. That's a much better deal for the team than paying osweiler 4 for 72 with 37 guaranteed, but also better for JG than playing out his final year and banking his family's future that nothing goes wrong. 

As a frame of reference, last year's pick 1.2, Carson Wentz, got 27 million with 15.5 guaranteed.  That's better than 4/60/20, which is better than bidding on a free agent.  Which is why I said there's value in having that one cheap year left on his contract.  It's not as good as having a guy under a rookie deal, but it's got real value to the acquiring team. 

There are a couple problems with this logic

1. No player likes to be franchise tagged. It's not a long term contract and that player is 1 injury away from being unemployed. You say that he can get him for 3 years about 60 million. Sure. You can have him play for 2 million, then franchise him for 25 or whatever it is, and then let's say he has a Bridgewater injury and his career is basically over. Now what does he have to show for it? Osweiler got 37 guaranteed. So if he gets hurt he'd at least get 10 million more than what JG would get in that scenario. 
2. The franchise tag eventually is not an option. So look at Washington... they could franchise Cousins but then nothing is stopping him from saying alright screw you guys I'm leaving after this season because I am tired of being tagged and you guys aren't willing to commit to me long term. See ya. Nothing is stopping JG from doing the same thing

Sure, in the end franchising him for 1 season isn't terrible, especially if he outplays his contract in his first season as a starter. But in the end it's not good for either side. 

You can also tag him twice.  You don't have to commit long-term at the time of a trade.

Again, I don't understand why people would be okay with their team giving up a FIRST ROUND PICK AND MORE for a player they wouldn't commit to for long-term. If you don't think he's a long-term player, why give up that kind of stock? At least with a rookie you have a couple of years to develop and see if he's going to turn into anything. JG gets one season? Two? 


Let me ask this, let's say JG plays at the level of Tannehill... would you say he is worthy of a franchise tag? He wants big money in a long term deal and his reasoning could be, "well it's my first year in this system." He is still going to want big money. Is he worth it? There are a lot of questions with this trade, it's not as simple as, "Well you can franchise him twice." Because that assumes he either: plays amazing and is worth top 5 salary, or he flops and you don't spend anything on him. What if he's average to above average? Shouldn't he get paid like an average to above average QB?

 

[Anarchy99]

I think you just put forth an excellent argument as to why a team shouldn't give up a very high draft pick to get someone else's backup.

Why? Do you find fault with how things turned out with the careers of Prescott, Wilson, Dalton, Brady, or Romo?

Or would you rather have spent your first round pick on the likes of Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, RGIII, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Blake Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, etc. The list of first round busts runs pretty long.

 

[Bronco Billy]

So you are saying that Garopollo is the equivalent of Brady, Wilson, Romo, or Prescott?  If so, why would NE let him go instead of turning the team over to him for the next 15 years after next season?

There is a profound lack of logic going on in this thread.  You don't trade a franchise QB early in his career ever when your current starter is on retirement's doorstep.  If NE is willing to part with him  given where Brady is in his career, they clearly do not consider him franchise material.  Why then should anyone else?

.

 

[Bossman]

To the footballguys that think trading for Garaopollo is a bad idea ..... please answer me this:

Your CLE, CHI, SF, NYJ, BUF, franchise is in need of a QB.  Someone you can build a team around.

Who has the best chance of being your franchise QB? Now what are you willing to pay to get him? 

Don't just say "I wouldn't trade for Garopollo" or "he's not worth a first" .... Tell me what the preferred option would be. How should these teams proceed? I'm curious as heck.

 

[Anarchy99]

So you are saying that Garopollo is the equivalent of Brady, Wilson, Romo, or Prescott?  If so, why would NE let him go instead of turning the team over to him for the next 15 years after next season?

You were the one that said the talent pool for later round draft picks was not very deep. As for NE, there have been pages and pages of worth of reasons why the Pats are not in a position to keep Garoppolo. If Brady plays 3-5 years as he and the team claim, that means JG would have been on the sidelines for 6-8 years before he got a chance to start. He could be 31 years old before he took over for Brady. How would NE be able to get 15 years out of him started at age 31?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If I am JG, I would legitimately consider holding out and refusing to play for them if they did that.  If JG does not play one snap this year, he would be guaranteed to get a decent deal somewhere next year. 

If I am JG, signing long term is an absolute must.

No, because the last year of his rookie deal would toll, and he'd still need to play under it in 2018 if he sits out in 2017.

 

[Thunderlips]

To the footballguys that think trading for Garaopollo is a bad idea ..... please answer me this:

Your CLE, CHI, SF, NYJ, BUF, franchise is in need of a QB.  Someone you can build a team around.

Who has the best chance of being your franchise QB? Now what are you willing to pay to get him? 

Don't just say "I wouldn't trade for Garopollo" or "he's not worth a first" .... Tell me what the preferred option would be. How should these teams proceed? I'm curious as heck.

I said since the beginning that a 1+ isn't worth it for JG as he hasn't done anything in the years that he's been in the league*

That's not to say he isn't or couldn't be a starter and excel in the NFL.

I've said since a few pages in...I think CLE moves the 12th pick and a couple of other later picks in either this or the next couple of years drafts for JG and the Pats 1st this year. 

* I don't think carrying a clipboard for Brady, being a QB under BB or doing well in the minmal time he played in as doing anything.  

 

[Bronco Billy]

NE won't be able to keep Garopollo after next season no matter what, unless they part with Brady.  It's either he or Brady at that point.  So saying that Garopollo would have to wait 4 to 6 years to get his chance to start makes no sense either.  

So do you sell off your next 15 years of franchise QB to appease the ego of a QB who is well into the twilight of his career?  Brady could easily retire after next season.  That would be much more likely than expecting to get another 5 years of franchise numbers out of him given where he is in his career.

 

[Boston]

No, because the last year of his rookie deal would toll, and he'd still need to play under it in 2018 if he sits out in 2017.

A back-up QB sitting out a full season seems like such a great idea...surprised we haven't seen it before...

 

[Thunderlips]

I'm also one who doesn't think there's an urgency in a number of teams to get a QB....RIGHT NOW!!!!!.... If I'm CHI, SF or CLE.....unless I'm absolutely in love with a QB in the draft (or JG)...I'm passing and taking BPA.  

I think there'd be more of a desire for a team like DEN or ARI to make a play for him as they're relatively close and if they think he's decent(good)....he could put them over the top. 

 

[Boston]

NE won't be able to keep Garopollo after next season no matter what, unless they part with Brady.  It's either he or Brady at that point.  So saying that Garopollo would have to wait 4 to 6 years to get his chance to start makes no sense either.  

So do you sell off your next 15 years of franchise QB to appease the ego of a QB who is well into the twilight of his career?  Brady could easily retire after next season.  That would be much more likely than expecting to get another 5 years of franchise numbers out of him given where he is in his career.

If Brady has three good years in him you keep him...no ifs, ands or buts about it...none...he is playing as well as he ever has and I see no reason why he can't win another Super Bowl or two as well as having the Pats dig-up another Jimmy G over the next 2-3 years who they may already have in Brissett...if Brady was showing signs of slippage (and yes I understand it can happen fast at his age) it maybe a different story but I can honestly say I am not worried about him dropping off of a cliff quickly...if he gets hurt it will be the type of injury a 25 year old could get not because he is old...

 

[Anarchy99]

NE won't be able to keep Garopollo after next season no matter what, unless they part with Brady.  It's either he or Brady at that point.  So saying that Garopollo would have to wait 4 to 6 years to get his chance to start makes no sense either.  

So do you sell off your next 15 years of franchise QB to appease the ego of a QB who is well into the twilight of his career?  Brady could easily retire after next season.  That would be much more likely than expecting to get another 5 years of franchise numbers out of him given where he is in his career.

Again . . . what defines a "franchise QB"?

Are you thinking JG is a future HOFer? A multi-time All-Pro? An occasional Pro Bowler? A long-term starter?

As I stated a page or two ago, the Patriots have won 5 titles in years where Brady DID LESS and were more balanced. In his 7 best passing yardage seasons, they DID NOT win the Super Bowl.

Some people seem to think that the options are Tom Brady throws for 4800/40/5 or he throws for 2500/15/20 with nothing in between. Suppose Brady settles in somewhere in the middle . . . say 3500-3800 yards, 20-25 TD, and 8-10 INT. They become more balanced and run the ball more, play good defense, and continue to go 12-4 or 13-3 for the next 3-4 years. What's wrong with that and why would they want to move on from that?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

NE won't be able to keep Garopollo after next season no matter what, unless they part with Brady.  It's either he or Brady at that point.  So saying that Garopollo would have to wait 4 to 6 years to get his chance to start makes no sense either.  

So do you sell off your next 15 years of franchise QB to appease the ego of a QB who is well into the twilight of his career?  Brady could easily retire after next season.  That would be much more likely than expecting to get another 5 years of franchise numbers out of him given where he is in his career.

You seriously think NE could even consider releasing Brady for Garoppolo? It's just not logical that a franchise - even one that seems as cold and calculating - could push aside a QB that just won his fifth Super Bowl throwing for 466 yards.

No one could be 100% certain what Jimmy G will be, even Belichick. With Brady they know they have a legit shot of at least one more Lombardi trophy in the next three seasons. 

 

[Boston]

I'm also one who doesn't think there's an urgency in a number of teams to get a QB....RIGHT NOW!!!!!.... If I'm CHI, SF or CLE.....unless I'm absolutely in love with a QB in the draft (or JG)...I'm passing and taking BPA.  

I think there'd be more of a desire for a team like DEN or ARI to make a play for him as they're relatively close and if they think he's decent(good)....he could put them over the top. 

Not to be a wise-### but it is easy to say that if your job is not on the line which Fox's most definitely is and as much as Cleveland may like Jackson if he doesn't get the QB position squared away they are looking at another horrific year and if they don't have a QB the possibility of another one in 2018...whether it is Jimmy G or someone else these teams need to get some type of stability at that position or there will be coaches and GMs getting the pink slip...

 

[Grahamburn]

NE trade this clown yet?

 

[Road Warriors]

NE won't be able to keep Garopollo after next season no matter what, unless they part with Brady.  It's either he or Brady at that point.  So saying that Garopollo would have to wait 4 to 6 years to get his chance to start makes no sense either.  

So do you sell off your next 15 years of franchise QB to appease the ego of a QB who is well into the twilight of his career?  Brady could easily retire after next season.  That would be much more likely than expecting to get another 5 years of franchise numbers out of him given where he is in his career.

Let's split the difference and say a 3 year window...  Given Brady's conditioning and health, and his skill set being much more dependent on cerebral capacity than athleticism, I think expecting a high level of performance from Brady for the next 3 years is reasonable.  History has shown that this team does a very good job of roster building and cap management, and they are currently the defending champions, as well as the oddsmaker's favorite to win it all next year.  I would argue that Brady, assuming he doesn't get injured, will keep this team as a legitimate SB contender for the next 3 years.  With that as a backdrop, and knowing that your roster construction and cap mgmt numbers will be blown up if you have to pay the backup QB starter money to keep him past this 3 year window, I disagree with your conclusion that you don't let him go.  I also disagree with the idea that the decision is based on appeasing the ego of the QB that just had arguably his best season.  That QB currently gives your team the best chance of winning the championship next year.  

I've stated I like what I've seen from Jimmy G, but I think the move from Brady to JG will drop the Patriots from SB favorites to playoff contenders right now.  I don't know what JG's ceiling is, but while he has shown some ability to play at the NFL level, he's not Brady.  He might be able to grow to a top tier QB, but he's certainly not there right now.  I will say that he looks to be a starting NFL QB caliber player, and would likely start on over 1/2 the rosters in the NFL today.  Is that worth a 1st or more?  Tough for me to say, but teams part with more than that to move 10 spots up in the draft for the right to draft less proven talent, and ( understanding the Vikings situation was an outlier ) just last year gave the titular 1st and 4th for a QB (Bradford) that had a pretty deep NFL book on him that showed him to be an average NFL QB.

 

[garlicduck]

NE trade this clown yet?

What has he done that makes him a clown?

 

[Bronco Billy]

You seriously think NE could even consider releasing Brady for Garoppolo? It's just not logical that a franchise - even one that seems as cold and calculating - could push aside a QB that just won his fifth Super Bowl throwing for 466 yards.

No one could be 100% certain what Jimmy G will be, even Belichick. With Brady they know they have a legit shot of at least one more Lombardi trophy in the next three seasons. 

Yes, that's pretty much the basis of my position.  Garopollo is too much of an unknown even for NE.  Otherwise they do not get rid of him, they do the unthinkable and move on from Brady.  That's just good business under the circumstances.  It's happened before with other teams.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yes, that's pretty much the basis of my position.  Garopollo is too much of an unknown even for NE.  Otherwise they do not get rid of him, they do the unthinkable and move on from Brady.  That's just good business under the circumstances.  It's happened before with other teams.

When teams have moved on from HOF QB's, any and all of the following have usually happened:

- They were hurt and couldn't stay on the field
- Their numbers were well below league average
- The team was no longer winning

Knock on wood, Brady currently has none of those issues. All of those certainly could materialize, even in unison. But for right now, none of those appear imminent in the short term.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Yes, that's pretty much the basis of my position.  Garopollo is too much of an unknown even for NE.  Otherwise they do not get rid of him, they do the unthinkable and move on from Brady.  That's just good business under the circumstances.  It's happened before with other teams.

I do not think anyone - even those that think he's worth a first - are claiming he's a lock to succeed. I think the point is no rookie QB is either. Opposing GMs will need to do their homework either way.

However like I said in a perfect world I'd guess NE would love to hold onto him to be Brady's successor - that option just isn't realistic under any circumstance.

 

[garlicduck]

Yes, that's pretty much the basis of my position.  Garopollo is too much of an unknown even for NE.  Otherwise they do not get rid of him, they do the unthinkable and move on from Brady.  That's just good business under the circumstances.  It's happened before with other teams.

Yeah that makes perfect sense...if they don't release Brady, it means Garappolo must suck!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

 It's happened before with other teams.

I'm sure we can guess those instances you are referring to (Montana, Manning, Favre), but none of those times were the circumstances similar at all really.

 

[Niles Standish]

When teams have moved on from HOF QB's, any and all of the following have usually happened:

- They were hurt and couldn't stay on the field
- Their numbers were well below league average
- The team was no longer winning

Knock on wood, Brady currently has none of those issues. All of those certainly could materialize, even in unison. But for right now, none of those appear imminent in the short term.

I don't remember the exact Favre situation.  But his numbers were great his final year in GB (I remember him having that shoulder? injury with the Jets but I don't think it was the case prior to that year).  Montana and Manning were both injured it looks like (I remember Peyton don't remember Joe's situation but he had missed the prior year).  And Brees was healthy I believe, but he wasn't HOF level before NO.  Those are the only first ballot guys I remember moving in the last 20-30 years but I could certainly be forgetting somebody.

 

[Grahamburn]

What has he done that makes him a clown?

I'm just coulrophobic.

 

[garlicduck]

I'm just coulrophobic.

Well, who isn't?  They're creepy but I don't think Garoppolo has done anything wrong/clownish.

 

[bostonfred]

There are a couple problems with this logic

1. No player likes to be franchise tagged. It's not a long term contract and that player is 1 injury away from being unemployed. You say that he can get him for 3 years about 60 million. Sure. You can have him play for 2 million, then franchise him for 25 or whatever it is, and then let's say he has a Bridgewater injury and his career is basically over. Now what does he have to show for it? Osweiler got 37 guaranteed. So if he gets hurt he'd at least get 10 million more than what JG would get in that scenario. 

You are actually agreeing with what I said, you just seem to have misunderstood.  

I agree - JG would rather have a contract than get franchised. I agree, the team would rather give him a relatively cheap contract than have to franchise him.

That's exactly what makes him valuable in trade - you can sign him to a relatively cheap contract extension. He will still cost more than what a first round pick would cost, but he'd be a lot cheaper than anyone you'd get in free agency.  

He's a young qb with some small amount of NFL success who is the best option out there and will sign for millions less per year than his closest comparable player. As an owner you might look at the long run and say that's not worth a first round pick, but as a gm or coach who may not last long enough to see the eventual qb of the future there's pressure to at least put a bid in for the guy. 

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't remember the exact Favre situation.  But his numbers were great his final year in GB (I remember him having that shoulder? injury with the Jets but I don't think it was the case prior to that year).  Montana and Manning were both injured it looks like (I remember Peyton don't remember Joe's situation but he had missed the prior year).  And Brees was healthy I believe, but he wasn't HOF level before NO.  Those are the only first ballot guys I remember moving in the last 20-30 years but I could certainly be forgetting somebody.

Favre had a 4-12 year and 8-8 year before having a bounce back 12-4 season. Then he announced his retirement. Later in the training camp leading up to the following season, he expressed a desire to return and GB said they were moving on to Rodgers.

Marino went 5-6 his last season, missed 5 games, and posted a 67.4 passer rating. Aikman went 4-7 his last year with a 64.3 passer rating, his third in a row not playing a full season, and IIRC had back problems. Jim Kelly missed several games and went 8-5 his last season with a 73.2 passer rating. Steve Young only played in 3 games and his passer rating had dropped to 60.9, Peyton may have won the SB, but his passer rating was the worst in the league at 67.9. Warren Moon hung around as a back up for two years, but he did not have a winning season in his last 4 years as a starter with passer ratings in the high 60's and 70's.

Kurt Warner probably could have played longer. He went 10-5 with a 93.2 passer rating when he called it quits.

 

[Anarchy99]

For those trying to establish a fair market value for Garoppolo, here are the notable 2017 salaries and salary cap hits for other quarterbacks. I figured Cousins would get franchised.

Player			Salary		Cap Hit
Tony Romo		14,000,000	24,700,000
Joe Flacco		6,000,000	24,550,000
Carson Palmer		15,500,000	24,125,000
Kirk Cousins		23,940,000	23,940,000
Matt Ryan		15,750,000	23,750,000
Matthew Stafford	16,500,000	22,000,000
Aaron Rodgers		12,550,000	20,300,000
Ryan Tannehill		17,975,000	20,300,000
Cam Newton		13,166,666	20,166,666
Philip Rivers		14,000,000	20,000,000
Eli Manning		13,000,000	19,700,000
Andrew Luck		7,000,000	19,400,000
Colin Kaepernick	14,500,000	19,365,753
Brock Osweiler		16,000,000	19,000,000
Drew Brees		13,000,000	19,000,000
Russell Wilson		12,600,000	18,800,000
Ben Roethlisberger	12,000,000	18,200,000
Sam Bradford		14,000,000	18,000,000
Alex Smith		10,800,000	16,900,000
Jay Cutler		12,500,000	16,000,000
Tyrod Taylor		12,000,000	15,913,334
Andy Dalton		13,100,000	15,700,000
Tom Brady		1,000,000	14,000,000
Robert Griffin III	6,000,000	8,734,375
Jameis Winston		615,000		6,913,985
Marcus Mariota		615,000		6,603,811
Blake Bortles		3,236,565	6,571,985
Jared Goff		1,719,894	6,349,471
Carson Wentz		1,662,561	6,062,804
Paxton Lynch		880,741		2,153,704
Derek Carr		977,519		1,709,210
Christian Hackenburg	661,832		1,059,159
Dak Prescott		540,000		635,848
Trevor Siemian		615,000		628,195

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't remember the exact Favre situation.  But his numbers were great his final year in GB (I remember him having that shoulder? injury with the Jets but I don't think it was the case prior to that year).  Montana and Manning were both injured it looks like (I remember Peyton don't remember Joe's situation but he had missed the prior year).  And Brees was healthy I believe, but he wasn't HOF level before NO.  Those are the only first ballot guys I remember moving in the last 20-30 years but I could certainly be forgetting somebody.

Favre announced he was going to retire (again) - but then decided to show up to camp after the Packers had decided to turn to Rodgers forcing the Packers to trade him. Packer fans can probably chime in if this is not accurate - but I believe Favre wanted the Packers to trade him to the Vikings and forced their hand, but they shipped him to the Jets instead.

It was a ruptured bicept muscle that he suffered as a Jet, by the way.

 

[Interseptopus]

Favre announced he was going to retire (again) - but then decided to show up to camp after the Packers had decided to turn to Rodgers forcing the Packers to trade him. Packer fans can probably chime in if this is not accurate - but I believe Favre wanted the Packers to trade him to the Vikings and forced their hand, but they shipped him to the Jets instead.

It was a ruptured torn bicept muscle tendon that he suffered as a Jet, by the way.

This is pretty accurate. I fixed his injury. He had his bicep tendon fully released surgically. A rupture wouldn't have required surgery, because it's basically what the doctor did anyways. We call that the "Brett Favre surgery" around here with patients when they have that done. 

Favre retired but after GB had moved on and committed to Rodgers Favre wanted back. The thing with the situation was that he was playing games with GB. He even admits he went about it the wrong way. He felt peeved that GB was moving on to Rodgers and got the sense they wanted to. By retiring and unretiring he was forcing GB to trade him or into a PR nightmare of benching him. He wanted to go to the Vikings and felt like he was "shipped off to Siberia" when GB traded him to the Jets. Part of the trade with the Jets was that NYJ could not trade him to MIN. What a disaster 

 

[Interseptopus]

You are actually agreeing with what I said, you just seem to have misunderstood.  

I agree - JG would rather have a contract than get franchised. I agree, the team would rather give him a relatively cheap contract than have to franchise him.

That's exactly what makes him valuable in trade - you can sign him to a relatively cheap contract extension. He will still cost more than what a first round pick would cost, but he'd be a lot cheaper than anyone you'd get in free agency.  

He's a young qb with some small amount of NFL success who is the best option out there and will sign for millions less per year than his closest comparable player. As an owner you might look at the long run and say that's not worth a first round pick, but as a gm or coach who may not last long enough to see the eventual qb of the future there's pressure to at least put a bid in for the guy. 

Yes, I must have misunderstood. 

If JG would sign for a reasonable salary then I'd say yes resign him. I feel like he wants his "big contract" much like (looking at Anarchy's list) Mariota, Winston, Wentz will get someday. But JG hasn't performed like them and has done nothing to warrant it. Dalton seems the most reasonable but I don't think JG has done anything to warrant that. 

If I'm trading for JG I think what I do is sign him to a 2-3 year deal worth about 5-6 mil a season as a "prove it" sort of deal. After that then he can reap his rewards and sign his 16-20 million dollar contract 

It's a huge risk to sign JG to a 10+ million dollar/season contract before he even does anything, but if you want him locked up for 5-6 years that's probably what it's going to take. A reasonable team would either sign an Osweiler kind of contract where it's really a 2 year deal if it doesn't work out, front loaded with guaranteed money, or a 2 year reasonable contract and extend him this next offseason if he does well. That seems to make the most sense IMO 


I agree, I think he is a lot cheaper than what you would get in FA, but more expensive than a rookie. He comes "seasoned" with some experience versus zero experience of a rookie. There are some positives that make him attractive to some degree