Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Taking a similar shot with kickers:Taking a shot at the original questiono teams with three defenses have a better chance than those with two (or gasp, one)?Irrelevant to compare three defenses to previous drafts. On those, you were limited to 20 picks and with 24 you should be able to cushion your drop off at other positions. It is a definite advantage for all the two DST teams and three DST teams over the one DST teams.Its interesting bass and we probably need twilight to chime in.
How many times has the 3/def thing worked? = Title.
I have gone 1 QB and won it, I have gone 1 K and won it. I only did 1 defense once and flamed out (my first SSL ever).
I get the strategy because you make at least 1 team only have single Def. but does it pay off for the team snaggin 3?
How did mad viking do that time he took 4 defenses???
First, here's what I did:
(Note - bye overlaps are ignored, we're just looking at scores)
I used Twilight's scoring site to grab all the scores for the defenses.
Average scores (512 scores, 32x16) = 8.1 points
Standard Deviation = 5.95 points
What that means is that 63% of the scores are going to be within 1 std dev of the average, and 95% of the scores will be within 2.
So if I do the math, the teams scoring between 3 and 14 points is 348, which is 68%. Pretty good. Actually those between 4 and 15 is 63%, so we're in the basic ballpark.
Now the questions I asked:
1. If I have 1, 2, or 3 teams, what are the odds I get 0-4 points for my defense?
2. If I have 1, 2, or 3 teams, what are the odds I get 8 or more points for my defense?
Answers:
1. One team = 37%. Two teams = 14%. Three teams = 5%.
2. One team = 42%. Two teams = 66%. Three teams = 81%.
Conclusion - you are more likely to both avoid bad weeks (0-4 points) with 3 defenses by almost a factor of three over teams with two, and almost seven times as insulated as a team with one defense.
Three defense teams are also nearly twice as likely than teams with one defense to get at least eight points in a given week (81% vs. 42%) and about 23% more likely to do better than two team defenses. That translates to about 12-13 "good" weeks for 3-def squads against 10-11 for 2-def squads (and just 6-7 for 1-def squads).
Significant? Quite possibly. It certainly doesn't hurt.
Do teams with three kickers have a better chance than those with two (or gasp, one)?
First, here's what I did:
(Note - bye overlaps are ignored, we're just looking at scores)
I used Twilight's scoring site to grab all the scores for the defenses.
Average scores (512 scores, 32x16) = 6 points (5.99 points to be precise, so 6)
Standard Deviation = 4.20 points
Here's where Standard Deviation breaks down, probably because the results are one-sided (can't go under 0).
The general results (which can be significant):
A whopping 78 kickers posted a zero. Now, that could be because of injury, getting cut or whatever - but that's not insignificant at all. That's over 15%. Compare that to kickers getting over 8 points in a game which happens just over one in four times (26%). So yes, having three can be an advantage over two - and certainly over one.
Now the questions I asked:
1. If I have 1, 2, or 3 teams, what are the odds I get 0-4 points for my kicker?
2. If I have 1, 2, or 3 teams, what are the odds I get 7 or more points for my kicker?
Answers:
1. One team = 62%. Two teams = 14%. Three teams = 5%.
2. One team = 45%. Two teams = 69%. Three teams = 83%.
Conclusion - you are more likely to both avoid bad weeks (0-4 points) with 3 kickers by almost a factor of three over teams with two, and almost 12 times as insulated as a team with one kicker.
Three kicker teams are also nearly twice as likely than teams with one kicker to get at least 7 points in a given week (83% vs. 45%) and about 14% more likely to do better than two kickers. That translates to about 12-13 "good" weeks for 3-kicker squads against 10-11 for 2-kicker squads (and just 6-7 for 1-kicker squads).
Significant? Quite possibly. It certainly doesn't hurt.
So yeah, 3Ks does kind of mirror 3D/STs, although the point spread (3 instead of 4) isn't as big - but it still very well could matter.
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