Peyton Manning (1 Viewer)

[pizzatyme]

Manning's numbers are down due to not having to rely on him the first 5 games. Give him a break. I fully expect his number to dramatically increase over the next 6 games due to the schedule stiffening.

Not having to rely on him? The colts have played 4 close games out of 5 games. They've won those 4 games by a total of 15 points. So Manning was holding back because the colts didn't need him? And he'll get better now that the opponents are tougher? I don't agree that's Peyton has been disappointing, but that's some crazy homer logic there.

It doesn't take crazy homer logic to see that the Colts have been trying to lean on the rushing attack in their first 5 games. They are trying to take pressure off of their defense by shortening the games.Yes, they have relied on PM to WIN the games for them, but not to dominate the games. Am I blind in thinking that?The Colts rushing offense to date has more rushing yards on less carries than the last 2 years if I'm not mistaken. Someone can correct me on that I'm sure. The Colts have less offensive numbers due to the opposition has been able to also run the ball against the Colts defense, thus reducing the Colts offensive opportunities.Maybe my crazy homerism is telling me all of this. But, I will stick to my guns in thinking that with the tougher schedule, the Colts will find themselves behind more often, thus having to throw the ball more often, thus potentially offering Manning and the passing game more opportunities to score, and therefore leaning on Manning a higher percentage of the time.But, hey, I'm a crazy homer, so what do I know more than you, the all-knowing football generalist?

Manning has 171 attempts in 5 games. That's on pace for right at 550 attempts for the season which is a good deal more than he's had in the last two seasons and right around average for his career. His yards per attempt and comp. % are close to his career averge. His 10 TDs so far are right in line with career averge. Other than his low INT total this season, he's right on pace for a normal season. So how have they not relied on him?Which game was it that he took it easy? The giants game when they had a 2 point lead in the 4th? The houston game where he was still passing late in the 4th with the game over? The Jags game that was tied at halftime? The jets game or titans game, when they were losing with less than 5 minutes to go in both? So yes, I think it's fair to ask exactly when have the colts not relied on him. In 4 of the 5 games they other team had a chance to take the lead or tie the game late in the fourth and the fifth game he played and passed with a big lead. So maybe drop the sarcasm and explain when manning was taking it easy in the first 5 games.

When I'm called a "crazy homer", I think I'm allowed to take exception to that, no?As for relying on PM, I agree, they are relying on him to WIN the games. They are not asking him to toss up gaudy statistics like the last 2 years. You can spin season totals and career statistics all you want. The Colts offensive gameplan is different thus far from years past. If you cannot see that, then we can agree to disagree there.The Colts aren't coming out passing all over the field looking to secure a big lead and trying to run away with it. I think this has to do with a couple of things. Stokley being injured most of the season, the O line being less than stellar(not wanting to risk injury to PM), and an overall philosophy to try to have a more balanced offensive attack over the course of a game(I think in preparation of the playoffs, where they'll need to be able to run the ball).This, coupled with the fact that the Defense has been banged up all season and is leaking like a sieve against the run, is also diminishing the need to go to an all-out passing attack.Being that I'm a "crazy homer" I feel I know my team pretty well. I have been there to witness 3 of the 5 games thus far. I have seen the flow of the game. I hope this helps to explain my position?!

 

[Delusions Of Adequacy]

Dungification takes a little time. This really shouldn't surpise anyone. True sharks unloaded Manning at least a year ago.

Do not keep us in suspense, o wise one. Who would the true sharks prefer to start at QB?

 

[H.K.]

As for relying on PM, I agree, they are relying on him to WIN the games. They are not asking him to toss up gaudy statistics like the last 2 years. You can spin season totals and career statistics all you want. The Colts offensive gameplan is different thus far from years past. If you cannot see that, then we can agree to disagree there.The Colts aren't coming out passing all over the field looking to secure a big lead and trying to run away with it. I think this has to do with a couple of things. Stokley being injured most of the season, the O line being less than stellar(not wanting to risk injury to PM), and an overall philosophy to try to have a more balanced offensive attack over the course of a game(I think in preparation of the playoffs, where they'll need to be able to run the ball).This, coupled with the fact that the Defense has been banged up all season and is leaking like a sieve against the run, is also diminishing the need to go to an all-out passing attack.

Thank you, finally someone answered my question. I knew there was a reason his passing numbers were off.

 

[pizzatyme]

As for relying on PM, I agree, they are relying on him to WIN the games. They are not asking him to toss up gaudy statistics like the last 2 years. You can spin season totals and career statistics all you want. The Colts offensive gameplan is different thus far from years past. If you cannot see that, then we can agree to disagree there.The Colts aren't coming out passing all over the field looking to secure a big lead and trying to run away with it. I think this has to do with a couple of things. Stokley being injured most of the season, the O line being less than stellar(not wanting to risk injury to PM), and an overall philosophy to try to have a more balanced offensive attack over the course of a game(I think in preparation of the playoffs, where they'll need to be able to run the ball).This, coupled with the fact that the Defense has been banged up all season and is leaking like a sieve against the run, is also diminishing the need to go to an all-out passing attack.

Thank you, finally someone answered my question. I knew there was a reason his passing numbers were off.

H.K. with all of that said, PM is 4 or 5 tackles of WRs inside the 3 yard line from being really dominant as usual. His season-to-date numbers are pretty much in line with previous years. He is just getting there a different way.I think you ruffled some feathers with the "how the mighty have fallen" fishing trip.It is much better to make an observation and ask a question, then to make a bold statement much as you have. You can only get flamed for an act like this.

 

[djcolts]

I think the "problems" Manning is having is because he's been getting used to having Rhodes and Addai in the backfield, and Stokely has not been on the field much because of injuries. Because of that, he's been inconsistent within games - looking great at times with periods of struggles.

I'm concerned about Stokely being out for weeks with the knee - they really could use him against Denver and NE (especially Denver - as strange as that sounds initially based on recent history - but I think you need to threaten with 3 dangerous WRs to have a better shot at getting points against their defense).

 

[JaxJokers]

Just traded for Peyton and Rudi Johnson. Gave up Mcnabb and Kevin Jones. It was a classic case of buy low and sell high!

 

[Wadsworth]

As for relying on PM, I agree, they are relying on him to WIN the games. They are not asking him to toss up gaudy statistics like the last 2 years. You can spin season totals and career statistics all you want. The Colts offensive gameplan is different thus far from years past. If you cannot see that, then we can agree to disagree there.

The Colts aren't coming out passing all over the field looking to secure a big lead and trying to run away with it. I think this has to do with a couple of things. Stokley being injured most of the season, the O line being less than stellar(not wanting to risk injury to PM), and an overall philosophy to try to have a more balanced offensive attack over the course of a game(I think in preparation of the playoffs, where they'll need to be able to run the ball).

This, coupled with the fact that the Defense has been banged up all season and is leaking like a sieve against the run, is also diminishing the need to go to an all-out passing attack.

Thank you, finally someone answered my question. I knew there was a reason his passing numbers were off.

It's a free country, you can call the sun the moon all day long, but it's still the sun that sets that night. Peyton's numbers are not "off". As SSOG and I both pointed out, Peyton's numbers are on pace for not only a better than average fantasy season, but he's on pace for going over 30 TDs for just the third time in his career. His other stats are extremely close to his career averages outside of INTs, which are on the low side.And Pizzatyme, the colts have been relying on him more than in past 2 years. Peyton is on pace to have 100 more attemps(a 20% increase) than last year and 50 more attempts(a 10% increase) than in 2004. The rushing attempts and yards for James/Rhodes last year and in 2004 after 5 games and Rhodes/Addai this year after 5 games are very similar. The colts game plan hasn't changed that much at all.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Manning is the 2nd ranked fantasy QB in fantasy points per game this season! I fail to see how he is underperforming - only McNabb's insanely elite start has been better. PPG to date

My .02.

You beat me to it.

Manning is the 2nd ranked fantasy QB in fantasy points per game this season! I fail to see how he is underperforming - only McNabb's insanely elite start has been better. PPG to date

My .02.

I was comparing his performance to date with his historical performances in the past.Manning is tied for 6th in the NFL for TD passes and is 11th in yardage. He has two rushing TD's to help his FF #'s, but his passing totals are on pace to be very pedestrian compared to his personal previous efforts in recent years and I was looking for any insight as to why that is happening,

Who cares? QB performances all over the league are down just as much, if not more, than Manning's. Also, why focus on TD passes? Add in his two TD rushes, since I'm pretty sure they still count.

He was drafted in the first round in greater than 98% of all fantasy leagues this year. You draft a QB in the first round he better blow the doors off or you are screwed.

Based on VBD and ADP, Manning has underperformed. He is barely #2 in PPG, with guys like Eli, Bulger & Vick within a point or two of him. He has not been a good investment based on where he was taken compared to what he has produced. Also, compared to his personal past performance, he is underperforming.The purpose of the thread is to find out why his numbers are on pace for career lows for him. Please add value or post elsewhere.

Add value or post elsewhere? I questioned the fact that he was drafted in the first round in greater than 98% of all fantasy leagues, and I pointed out that QBs in general were having a bit of an off year. Granted, I'm not likely to win any awards for that post, but they can't all be Pulitzers.You want value, though? Sure thing, I can give you value. All of the following numbers come from the charts in my PPR league, with players sorted by their PPG totals.

You say that Manning is "barely #2 in PPG".

The #2 QB (Manning) is averaging .6 more PPG than the #3 QB.

The #2 RB is averaging .6 more PPG than the #3 RB.

The #2 WR is averaging .3 more PPG than the #3 WR.

The #2 TE is averaging .2 more PPG than the #3 TE.

Whoops, it looks like Peyton Manning is only "barely #2" as much as every other #2 is "barely #2". The fact remains that you just don't see huge point splits among the elite at certain positions, and QB historically has the smallest point differential from top to bottom. Last year the difference between the #1 and #2 QBs was .35 PPG. The difference between #2 and #3 was .15 PPG. In other words, the difference between the #2 and #3 this year is actually 20% greater than the difference between the #1 and the #3 last year. In other words, your claim that Manning is "barely" #2 is downright ludicrous.

More fun and games. You claim that Manning is underperforming compared to his previous performances. Manning's on pace for 32 total TDs, which would be the third-highest total of his career, and 4 more than he had last season. He's on pace for 4124 total yards, which is 332 more than he posted last year. Is this enough added value yet, or do you want to troll me some more?

I agree with your claim that Manning was overrated at #10 overall in ADP, but that wasn't what this thread was about. You were talking about how the "mighty had fallen", and how Peyton Manning was having a horrible statistical season by his standards. That's simply not the case, as he's on pace for 4100+ yards and 30+ TDs, a mark he's only twice achieved in his storied career.

 

[Scorehoard]

Wonder why they have decided to use this BALANCED OFFENSE this year when you had a Pro Bowler here the previous several seasons.... Good strategy coach. Let's have a more balanced offense with a depleted running attack. All I have to say is COME OUT SLINGIN PEYTON!!!!!!!

 

[pizzatyme]

As for relying on PM, I agree, they are relying on him to WIN the games. They are not asking him to toss up gaudy statistics like the last 2 years. You can spin season totals and career statistics all you want. The Colts offensive gameplan is different thus far from years past. If you cannot see that, then we can agree to disagree there.

The Colts aren't coming out passing all over the field looking to secure a big lead and trying to run away with it. I think this has to do with a couple of things. Stokley being injured most of the season, the O line being less than stellar(not wanting to risk injury to PM), and an overall philosophy to try to have a more balanced offensive attack over the course of a game(I think in preparation of the playoffs, where they'll need to be able to run the ball).

This, coupled with the fact that the Defense has been banged up all season and is leaking like a sieve against the run, is also diminishing the need to go to an all-out passing attack.

Thank you, finally someone answered my question. I knew there was a reason his passing numbers were off.

It's a free country, you can call the sun the moon all day long, but it's still the sun that sets that night. Peyton's numbers are not "off". As SSOG and I both pointed out, Peyton's numbers are on pace for not only a better than average fantasy season, but he's on pace for going over 30 TDs for just the third time in his career. His other stats are extremely close to his career averages outside of INTs, which are on the low side.And Pizzatyme, the colts have been relying on him more than in past 2 years. Peyton is on pace to have 100 more attemps(a 20% increase) than last year and 50 more attempts(a 10% increase) than in 2004. The rushing attempts and yards for James/Rhodes last year and in 2004 after 5 games and Rhodes/Addai this year after 5 games are very similar. The colts game plan hasn't changed that much at all.

Fella, more attempts doesn't mean more production! The Colts aren't hitting the homeruns like the last 2 years. so, yes, Manning will have more attempts of less yards. The Colts are scoring less than the last year, right?

Here are some stats to back my thinking:

Through 5 game '05 vs. '06

'05 rushing totals 563/4

'06 rushing totals 557/7

'05 passing totals 1123/7

'06 passing totals 1229/8

% of passing TD points to total team points:

'05= 39.6%

'06= 35.5%

% of rushing TD points to total team points:

'05= 22.6%

'06= 31.1%

I think if you want to just use season totals as your basis for argument that Manning is ahead of last years pace or his career totals and therefore being relied upon more this year to last, then that is flawed thinking in my opinion. Since all of the numbers show his yards and scoring are a lower % in '06 YTD versus '05 YTD.

Also, in '05 52% of Mannings passing yards came in his 7 toughest games on the schedule: Balt/NE/Cin/Pitt/Jax(2)/SD and 46% of his TDs came in those same games. I think this shows he DOES pick up his game in the toughest part of the schedule like I said in a previous post.

I hope this is enough statistics to prove my point. If not, we will agree to disagree.

The running game is being relied upon more in '06 than Manning at this point of the season. However, I fully expect this to change as I mentioned in an earlier post.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

As for relying on PM, I agree, they are relying on him to WIN the games. They are not asking him to toss up gaudy statistics like the last 2 years. You can spin season totals and career statistics all you want. The Colts offensive gameplan is different thus far from years past. If you cannot see that, then we can agree to disagree there.The Colts aren't coming out passing all over the field looking to secure a big lead and trying to run away with it. I think this has to do with a couple of things. Stokley being injured most of the season, the O line being less than stellar(not wanting to risk injury to PM), and an overall philosophy to try to have a more balanced offensive attack over the course of a game(I think in preparation of the playoffs, where they'll need to be able to run the ball).This, coupled with the fact that the Defense has been banged up all season and is leaking like a sieve against the run, is also diminishing the need to go to an all-out passing attack.

Thank you, finally someone answered my question. I knew there was a reason his passing numbers were off.

H.K. with all of that said, PM is 4 or 5 tackles of WRs inside the 3 yard line from being really dominant as usual. His season-to-date numbers are pretty much in line with previous years. He is just getting there a different way.I think you ruffled some feathers with the "how the mighty have fallen" fishing trip.It is much better to make an observation and ask a question, then to make a bold statement much as you have. You can only get flamed for an act like this.

Solid input and response to the original question.

 

[pizzatyme]

As for relying on PM, I agree, they are relying on him to WIN the games. They are not asking him to toss up gaudy statistics like the last 2 years. You can spin season totals and career statistics all you want. The Colts offensive gameplan is different thus far from years past. If you cannot see that, then we can agree to disagree there.The Colts aren't coming out passing all over the field looking to secure a big lead and trying to run away with it. I think this has to do with a couple of things. Stokley being injured most of the season, the O line being less than stellar(not wanting to risk injury to PM), and an overall philosophy to try to have a more balanced offensive attack over the course of a game(I think in preparation of the playoffs, where they'll need to be able to run the ball).This, coupled with the fact that the Defense has been banged up all season and is leaking like a sieve against the run, is also diminishing the need to go to an all-out passing attack.

Thank you, finally someone answered my question. I knew there was a reason his passing numbers were off.

H.K. with all of that said, PM is 4 or 5 tackles of WRs inside the 3 yard line from being really dominant as usual. His season-to-date numbers are pretty much in line with previous years. He is just getting there a different way.I think you ruffled some feathers with the "how the mighty have fallen" fishing trip.It is much better to make an observation and ask a question, then to make a bold statement much as you have. You can only get flamed for an act like this.

Solid input and response to the original question.

But, keep in mind, I am a crazy homer!

 

[AnonymousBob]

As for relying on PM, I agree, they are relying on him to WIN the games. They are not asking him to toss up gaudy statistics like the last 2 years. You can spin season totals and career statistics all you want. The Colts offensive gameplan is different thus far from years past. If you cannot see that, then we can agree to disagree there.

The Colts aren't coming out passing all over the field looking to secure a big lead and trying to run away with it. I think this has to do with a couple of things. Stokley being injured most of the season, the O line being less than stellar(not wanting to risk injury to PM), and an overall philosophy to try to have a more balanced offensive attack over the course of a game(I think in preparation of the playoffs, where they'll need to be able to run the ball).

This, coupled with the fact that the Defense has been banged up all season and is leaking like a sieve against the run, is also diminishing the need to go to an all-out passing attack.

Thank you, finally someone answered my question. I knew there was a reason his passing numbers were off.

It's a free country, you can call the sun the moon all day long, but it's still the sun that sets that night. Peyton's numbers are not "off". As SSOG and I both pointed out, Peyton's numbers are on pace for not only a better than average fantasy season, but he's on pace for going over 30 TDs for just the third time in his career. His other stats are extremely close to his career averages outside of INTs, which are on the low side.And Pizzatyme, the colts have been relying on him more than in past 2 years. Peyton is on pace to have 100 more attemps(a 20% increase) than last year and 50 more attempts(a 10% increase) than in 2004. The rushing attempts and yards for James/Rhodes last year and in 2004 after 5 games and Rhodes/Addai this year after 5 games are very similar. The colts game plan hasn't changed that much at all.

Fella, more attempts doesn't mean more production! The Colts aren't hitting the homeruns like the last 2 years. so, yes, Manning will have more attempts of less yards. The Colts are scoring less than the last year, right?

Here are some stats to back my thinking:

Through 5 game '05 vs. '06

'05 rushing totals 563/4

'06 rushing totals 557/7

'05 passing totals 1123/7

'06 passing totals 1229/8

% of passing TD points to total team points:

'05= 39.6%

'06= 35.5%

% of rushing TD points to total team points:

'05= 22.6%

'06= 31.1%

I think if you want to just use season totals as your basis for argument that Manning is ahead of last years pace or his career totals and therefore being relied upon more this year to last, then that is flawed thinking in my opinion. Since all of the numbers show his yards and scoring are a lower % in '06 YTD versus '05 YTD.

Also, in '05 52% of Mannings passing yards came in his 7 toughest games on the schedule: Balt/NE/Cin/Pitt/Jax(2)/SD and 46% of his TDs came in those same games. I think this shows he DOES pick up his game in the toughest part of the schedule like I said in a previous post.

I hope this is enough statistics to prove my point. If not, we will agree to disagree.

The running game is being relied upon more in '06 than Manning at this point of the season. However, I fully expect this to change as I mentioned in an earlier post.

So...Peyton is on pace for a better season in '06 than in '05? The team as a whole is scoring more points?

 

[pizzatyme]

So...Peyton is on pace for a better season in '06 than in '05? The team as a whole is scoring more points?

Yes, statistically on pace. Comparitively, he is being relied upon LESS.

Yes, the Colts have scored more this season. However, in '05, they started off very slowly with 10-3 and 13-6 games in their first 2 of 3.

It points to the fact that Manning is on par. Just not relied upon thus far as normal. That is the point.

 

[bobspruill]

The interesting thing in this thread to me is the claim that Peyton was overvalued at ADP 10. I have him in one league and took him at 8. I looked at him and the next 5 guys to be drafted (all RB's), through week 6:

Jackson, Steven StL/7

Johnson, Rudi Cin/5

Williams, Cadillac TB/4

Portis, Clinton Was/8

Westbrook, Brian Phi/9

For a first-round pick what you want is, of course, high performance above the baseline at the position but also low variance in that performance--the idea being that this is a pick around which you're building your team, and a bad week from this player makes it particularly difficult to win. In portfolio theory there's a measure called the Sharpe ratio that quantifies this: it's the ratio of (average return - average risk-free return) / standard deviation of return.

Here, the returns are points scored; the risk-free return was assumed to be the average point production of the "last starter" at that position--in my 12-team league, that's QB12 and RB24.

A high Sharpe ratio is what you want: something that offers high return at small variance. Here are the ratios for the players I considered taking at 8:

Manning, Peyton Ind/6: 0.534

Jackson, Steven StL/7: 1.925

Johnson, Rudi Cin/5: 0.348

Williams, Cadillac TB/4: -0.095

Portis, Clinton Was/8: 0.667

Westbrook, Brian Phi/9: 0.846

Obviously there's a serious hindsight bias in this kind of analysis, but even including Manning's "sub-par" performance so far this year, what I see is that Jackson is by far the best pick that could have been made at 8, followed by Westbrook (PPR league) and Portis (I assumed the risk-free return was available for any week when a player isn't playing), followed by Manning.

That puts him at a "proper" draft position of 11 in comparison with the others who were considered at this point in this draft.

The only defense I'll offer of taking Peyton at 8 is that I felt very strongly that his variance was going to be low, based on past years; I didn't have such solid information about Jackson, Westbrook is notoriously injury-prone, and Portis was looking iffy due to injury on draft day.

All this is just to say that Peyton is giving me what I expect out of a first-round pick.

 

[H.K.]

So...Peyton is on pace for a better season in '06 than in '05? The team as a whole is scoring more points?

Yes, statistically on pace. Comparitively, he is being relied upon LESS.

Yes, the Colts have scored more this season. However, in '05, they started off very slowly with 10-3 and 13-6 games in their first 2 of 3.

It points to the fact that Manning is on par. Just not relied upon thus far as normal. That is the point.

With Regards to 2005, Manning played sparingly the final two games, so his aggregate totals on the season were no representative of his normal year.

Currently Manning is on pace for the following:

1) 4089 Yards Passing - Lowest since his rookie year excluding 2005 when he essentially played 1 1/2 games fewer due to them locking up HFA.

2) His current 7.5 YPA is lowest since 2002

3) He is on pace for 25.6 TD passes, which would be his lowest since his rookie year.

This discussion is not about his FF points or comparing him to other QB's, it is about his passing statistics and why they are trending downward. I appreciate the people who took the time to comprehend this and have tried to pinpoint the reasons for his present passing stats.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

I assumed it was because the team's offense is one dimensional and teams are only playing the pass now because the running game sucks.

It would help if the defense could get off the field too. When you can't stop the run - the other team's offense keeps Peyton Manning off the field. Enter Booger McFarland.

Does anybody have time of possession stats for this YTD vs. last YTD and the run/pass ratios of the Colts offense?

 

[H.K.]

I assumed it was because the team's offense is one dimensional and teams are only playing the pass now because the running game sucks.It would help if the defense could get off the field too. When you can't stop the run - the other team's offense keeps Peyton Manning off the field. Enter Booger McFarland.Does anybody have time of possession stats for this YTD vs. last YTD and the run/pass ratios of the Colts offense?

I looked at this before starting the thread, and IIRC the Colts passed 32 times a game last season and have thrown 34 times a game this year, but they've run 29.6 rushing plays per game in 2006 compared to 29.1 in 2005.Time of Possession2005 30:22 17th in the NFL2006 29:29 24th in the NFL

 

[CalBear]

This discussion is not about his FF points or comparing him to other QB's, it is about his passing statistics and why they are trending downward. I appreciate the people who took the time to comprehend this and have tried to pinpoint the reasons for his present passing stats.

Manning is on pace for 32 TDs, which is a level he has reached only twice in his career. If he'd throw the ball rather than run it in one, he'd be on pace for 29 passing TDs, which, again, he's only surpassed twice. You really have no point at all.

 

[H.K.]

This discussion is not about his FF points or comparing him to other QB's, it is about his passing statistics and why they are trending downward. I appreciate the people who took the time to comprehend this and have tried to pinpoint the reasons for his present passing stats.

Manning is on pace for 32 TDs, which is a level he has reached only twice in his career. If he'd throw the ball rather than run it in one, he'd be on pace for 29 passing TDs, which, again, he's only surpassed twice. You really have no point at all.

Math down?

8 touchdown passes divided by 5 games = 1.6 TD passes per game

1.6 TD passes x 16 games = 25.6

Comprehension down?

Discussion is for passing yards and TDs, please see bolded section above.

I would assume you are a fan of Cal, and not a graduate.

 

[CalBear]

Math down?

8 touchdown passes divided by 5 games = 1.6 TD passes per game

1.6 TD passes x 16 games = 25.6

Comprehension down?

Discussion is for passing yards and TDs, please see bolded section above.

I would assume you are a fan of Cal, and not a graduate.

Let me introduce you to the concept of "insufficient sample size."Manning has more passing TDs and more passing yards than he did after 5 games in 2005. He also has more rushing TDs and more rushing yards. In absolutely no measurable way is he performing any weaker than he did last year.

 

[bobspruill]

I assumed it was because the team's offense is one dimensional and teams are only playing the pass now because the running game sucks.It would help if the defense could get off the field too. When you can't stop the run - the other team's offense keeps Peyton Manning off the field. Enter Booger McFarland.Does anybody have time of possession stats for this YTD vs. last YTD and the run/pass ratios of the Colts offense?

Date %run %run against TOP9/10/06 35.94% 45.16% 29.959/17/06 47.95% 46.94% 34.939/24/06 39.22% 58.82% 20.6010/1/06 54.55% 61.67% 28.0510/8/06 52.31% 59.62% 33.92average 45.99% 54.44% 29.49 Date %run %run against TOP9/11/05 41.94% 28.00% 27.159/18/05 57.58% 45.28% 28.679/25/05 58.93% 44.23% 31.6310/2/05 49.06% 33.93% 25.8010/9/05 47.46% 54.90% 30.8710/17/05 54.29% 42.00% 32.9010/23/05 55.74% 78.57% 33.3211/7/05 50.67% 25.93% 36.6811/13/05 45.31% 48.98% 32.5811/20/05 42.86% 40.63% 32.0311/28/05 56.14% 49.02% 30.7812/4/05 64.58% 33.90% 27.0512/11/05 47.89% 39.66% 33.9712/18/05 25.00% 52.86% 25.4712/24/05 34.85% 58.82% 33.621/1/06 23.26% 42.47% 23.32average 47.22% 44.95% 30.36The only thing that stands out to me here is that opponents are calling 10% more of their plays as rushing plays this year. I understand Tony likes to play clock-ball, but he might want to consider playing to his team's strengths, rather than its weakness. If run defense is the problem, then it might make sense to come out firing, get the early lead, and play clock-ball once the opponent is feeling that they can't afford to run....

 

[Warpig]

Dungification takes a little time. This really shouldn't surpise anyone. True sharks unloaded Manning at least a year ago.

Agreed. I'm a shark and I unloaded that worthless, steady declining, piece of crap for Samkon Gado, Troy Brown, and Daunte Culpepper. Man, did I rip that guy off! Good luck with Manning ya guppie!I am sooooo gonna win my league now.

 

[H.K.]

Let me introduce you to the concept of "insufficient sample size."

Manning has more passing TDs and more passing yards than he did after 5 games in 2005. He also has more rushing TDs and more rushing yards. In absolutely no measurable way is he performing any weaker than he did last year.

For the final time: we are not discussing rushing numbers or FF stats.Now, you do realize that 2005 was Manning's second lowest passing yardage season behind his rookie year, right? He is currently performing slightly better than his two worst seasons from a passing yardage standpoint, and on par with his worst season from a TD passing perspective. What is so difficult for you to grasp about those statsistical facts?

 

[H.K.]

[The only thing that stands out to me here is that opponents are calling 10% more of their plays as rushing plays this year. I understand Tony likes to play clock-ball, but he might want to consider playing to his team's strengths, rather than its weakness. If run defense is the problem, then it might make sense to come out firing, get the early lead, and play clock-ball once the opponent is feeling that they can't afford to run....

Excellent analysis. I guess the questions is: Why don't the Colts come out firing and try to get the lead, as you suggested?

 

[CalBear]

Let me introduce you to the concept of "insufficient sample size."

Manning has more passing TDs and more passing yards than he did after 5 games in 2005. He also has more rushing TDs and more rushing yards. In absolutely no measurable way is he performing any weaker than he did last year.

For the final time: we are not discussing rushing numbers or FF stats.Now, you do realize that 2005 was Manning's second lowest passing yardage season behind his rookie year, right? He is currently performing slightly better than his two worst seasons from a passing yardage standpoint, and on par with his worst season from a TD passing perspective. What is so difficult for you to grasp about those statsistical facts?

What is so difficult to grasp about the fact that 5 games are not statistically significant? Look at Manning's 2000 season, his second best in terms of yardage and TDs. Manning has more passing yardage and more passing TDs in weeks 1-5 of 2006 than he did in weeks 12-16, or weeks 11-15, of 2000. What does that mean? Absolutely nothing; you can look at a five-week span of any season and find similar or worse numbers. Manning is having an elite QB season, and he has many, many years of proven production; to extrapolate from a very good first five games that he's somehow dropped from elite status is completely unfounded and ridiculous.

 

[Wadsworth]

Let me introduce you to the concept of "insufficient sample size."

Manning has more passing TDs and more passing yards than he did after 5 games in 2005. He also has more rushing TDs and more rushing yards. In absolutely no measurable way is he performing any weaker than he did last year.

For the final time: we are not discussing rushing numbers or FF stats.Now, you do realize that 2005 was Manning's second lowest passing yardage season behind his rookie year, right? He is currently performing slightly better than his two worst seasons from a passing yardage standpoint, and on par with his worst season from a TD passing perspective. What is so difficult for you to grasp about those statsistical facts?

What is so difficult to grasp about the fact that 5 games are not statistically significant?

Just as example of this in the Jags game Manning threw a ball to Harrison over the middle that could have been a 50 yard TD but Rashean Mathis grabbed Harrison's jersey at the last second and the play just missed. If that one pay had worked you could add 1 passing TD and 50 yards to Manning's total and all of the sudden he's on pace for over 4,200 yards and more than 28 passing TDs. Manning is performing extreme close to his career average and his numbers don't look out of place at all compared to any year besides the amazing 2004 season.

 

[davper]

He was on worse pace thru 5 games played this time last year and finished okay enough.

Patience grasshopper

 

[H.K.]

Just as example of this in the Jags game Manning threw a ball to Harrison over the middle that could have been a 50 yard TD but Rashean Mathis grabbed Harrison's jersey at the last second and the play just missed. If that one pay had worked you could add 1 passing TD and 50 yards to Manning's total and all of the sudden he's on pace for over 4,200 yards and more than 28 passing TDs. Manning is performing extreme close to his career average and his numbers don't look out of place at all compared to any year besides the amazing 2004 season.

While that is good to know, in all fairness, the same could be said for many other QB's. Vick has has several potential TD passes go through his receivers' hands this season.As it applies to Manning (and anyone else), it only matters what their actual production has been. It will be interesting to see if his passing numbers increase the rest of the season. I thought he'd be around 30 TD passes after losing Edge simply because they would throw more, and he would have better yardage than his typical season (meaning I was NOT expecting a replication of 2004).

 

[kupcho1]

Dungification takes a little time. This really shouldn't surpise anyone. True sharks unloaded Manning at least a year ago.

Do not keep us in suspense, o wise one. Who would the true sharks prefer to start at QB?

OK, since you asked nicely. I traded P. Manning, Mewelde Moore, Ernest Wilford, Vilma, Todd Weiner, Kyle Turley and the 1.12 pick for LT, Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Kirk Morrison, Jevon Kearse and L Fitzgerald.Its a 32 team league with 52 man rosters/ 5 man "practice squad" (also draft and start coaches, GMs and "capologists" - they're scoring is basically complete after the draft and is used (along with a number of other factors) to set our draft and division alignment) dynasty league. I won't even go into the scoring as its far too complex to explain. Suffice to say that it involves fast fourier transforms, the liberal use of imaginary numbers and basic familiarity with the Aramaic language.

 

[CalBear]

As it applies to Manning (and anyone else), it only matters what their actual production has been.

Does your league not award points for rushing TDs?

 

[dawgtrails]

Dungification takes a little time. This really shouldn't surpise anyone. True sharks unloaded Manning at least a year ago.

Do not keep us in suspense, o wise one. Who would the true sharks prefer to start at QB?

OK, since you asked nicely. I traded P. Manning, Mewelde Moore, Ernest Wilford, Vilma, Todd Weiner, Kyle Turley and the 1.12 pick for LT, Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Kirk Morrison, Jevon Kearse and L Fitzgerald.Its a 32 team league with 52 man rosters/ 5 man "practice squad" (also draft and start coaches, GMs and "capologists" - they're scoring is basically complete after the draft and is used (along with a number of other factors) to set our draft and division alignment) dynasty league. I won't even go into the scoring as its far too complex to explain. Suffice to say that it involves fast fourier transforms, the liberal use of imaginary numbers and basic familiarity with the Aramaic language.

Man, you must have some messed up scoring system there.I dont know enough about IDP to comment on that aspect....butYou got the #1 RB, another top 10 RB, a top 5 QB, and a top 10 WR for, for what? Manning and some offensive scrubs and, well I cant comment on the rest...but man, something seems fishy with thst deal

 

[CalBear]

Dungification takes a little time. This really shouldn't surpise anyone. True sharks unloaded Manning at least a year ago.

Do not keep us in suspense, o wise one. Who would the true sharks prefer to start at QB?

OK, since you asked nicely. I traded P. Manning, Mewelde Moore, Ernest Wilford, Vilma, Todd Weiner, Kyle Turley and the 1.12 pick for LT, Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Kirk Morrison, Jevon Kearse and L Fitzgerald.Its a 32 team league with 52 man rosters/ 5 man "practice squad" (also draft and start coaches, GMs and "capologists" - they're scoring is basically complete after the draft and is used (along with a number of other factors) to set our draft and division alignment) dynasty league. I won't even go into the scoring as its far too complex to explain. Suffice to say that it involves fast fourier transforms, the liberal use of imaginary numbers and basic familiarity with the Aramaic language.

Man, you must have some messed up scoring system there.I dont know enough about IDP to comment on that aspect....butYou got the #1 RB, another top 10 RB, a top 5 QB, and a top 10 WR for, for what? Manning and some offensive scrubs and, well I cant comment on the rest...but man, something seems fishy with thst deal

[foghorn_leghorn]You're built too low to the ground, son, the fast ones keep going over your head.[/foghorn_leghorn]

 

[H.K.]

As it applies to Manning (and anyone else), it only matters what their actual production has been.

Does your league not award points for rushing TDs?

Yes, and those have been helpful for his FF #'s, but as I posted earlier, I was expecting Manning & the Colts to throw more this season and be more productive than his norm w/o Edge, but the opposite is occuring. I would have thought Manning would have been good for 4200 & 30 this year.

 

[pizzatyme]

I assumed it was because the team's offense is one dimensional and teams are only playing the pass now because the running game sucks.It would help if the defense could get off the field too. When you can't stop the run - the other team's offense keeps Peyton Manning off the field. Enter Booger McFarland.Does anybody have time of possession stats for this YTD vs. last YTD and the run/pass ratios of the Colts offense?

Date %run %run against TOP9/10/06 35.94% 45.16% 29.959/17/06 47.95% 46.94% 34.939/24/06 39.22% 58.82% 20.6010/1/06 54.55% 61.67% 28.0510/8/06 52.31% 59.62% 33.92average 45.99% 54.44% 29.49 Date %run %run against TOP9/11/05 41.94% 28.00% 27.159/18/05 57.58% 45.28% 28.679/25/05 58.93% 44.23% 31.6310/2/05 49.06% 33.93% 25.8010/9/05 47.46% 54.90% 30.8710/17/05 54.29% 42.00% 32.9010/23/05 55.74% 78.57% 33.3211/7/05 50.67% 25.93% 36.6811/13/05 45.31% 48.98% 32.5811/20/05 42.86% 40.63% 32.0311/28/05 56.14% 49.02% 30.7812/4/05 64.58% 33.90% 27.0512/11/05 47.89% 39.66% 33.9712/18/05 25.00% 52.86% 25.4712/24/05 34.85% 58.82% 33.621/1/06 23.26% 42.47% 23.32average 47.22% 44.95% 30.36The only thing that stands out to me here is that opponents are calling 10% more of their plays as rushing plays this year. I understand Tony likes to play clock-ball, but he might want to consider playing to his team's strengths, rather than its weakness. If run defense is the problem, then it might make sense to come out firing, get the early lead, and play clock-ball once the opponent is feeling that they can't afford to run....

as a "crazy homer" this too would be my wish! A perfect example of Dungy-ball was against the Titans. Colts had 4th and 6 at the Titans 37 YL. No score in the game. Dungy elects to punt?! WTF, the most explosive offense of the era on the 37 of a winless team with no score in the game and you punt? Playing field position ball? Gimme an effing break!

 

[dawgtrails]

Dungification takes a little time. This really shouldn't surpise anyone. True sharks unloaded Manning at least a year ago.

Do not keep us in suspense, o wise one. Who would the true sharks prefer to start at QB?

OK, since you asked nicely. I traded P. Manning, Mewelde Moore, Ernest Wilford, Vilma, Todd Weiner, Kyle Turley and the 1.12 pick for LT, Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Kirk Morrison, Jevon Kearse and L Fitzgerald.Its a 32 team league with 52 man rosters/ 5 man "practice squad" (also draft and start coaches, GMs and "capologists" - they're scoring is basically complete after the draft and is used (along with a number of other factors) to set our draft and division alignment) dynasty league. I won't even go into the scoring as its far too complex to explain. Suffice to say that it involves fast fourier transforms, the liberal use of imaginary numbers and basic familiarity with the Aramaic language.

Man, you must have some messed up scoring system there.I dont know enough about IDP to comment on that aspect....butYou got the #1 RB, another top 10 RB, a top 5 QB, and a top 10 WR for, for what? Manning and some offensive scrubs and, well I cant comment on the rest...but man, something seems fishy with thst deal

[foghorn_leghorn]You're built too low to the ground, son, the fast ones keep going over your head.[/foghorn_leghorn]

i am a little slowor maybe still drunk

 

[CalBear]

As it applies to Manning (and anyone else), it only matters what their actual production has been.

Does your league not award points for rushing TDs?

Yes, and those have been helpful for his FF #'s, but as I posted earlier, I was expecting Manning & the Colts to throw more this season and be more productive than his norm w/o Edge, but the opposite is occuring. I would have thought Manning would have been good for 4200 & 30 this year.

He's on pace for 4124 and 32. It's stupid to discount the rushing TDs.

 

[katar]

"D-Caf" *clap clap* "D-Caf"

 

[kupcho1]

Dungification takes a little time. This really shouldn't surpise anyone. True sharks unloaded Manning at least a year ago.

Do not keep us in suspense, o wise one. Who would the true sharks prefer to start at QB?

OK, since you asked nicely. I traded P. Manning, Mewelde Moore, Ernest Wilford, Vilma, Todd Weiner, Kyle Turley and the 1.12 pick for LT, Westbrook, Carson Palmer, Kirk Morrison, Jevon Kearse and L Fitzgerald.Its a 32 team league with 52 man rosters/ 5 man "practice squad" (also draft and start coaches, GMs and "capologists" - they're scoring is basically complete after the draft and is used (along with a number of other factors) to set our draft and division alignment) dynasty league. I won't even go into the scoring as its far too complex to explain. Suffice to say that it involves fast fourier transforms, the liberal use of imaginary numbers and basic familiarity with the Aramaic language.

Man, you must have some messed up scoring system there.I dont know enough about IDP to comment on that aspect....butYou got the #1 RB, another top 10 RB, a top 5 QB, and a top 10 WR for, for what? Manning and some offensive scrubs and, well I cant comment on the rest...but man, something seems fishy with thst deal

[foghorn_leghorn]You're built too low to the ground, son, the fast ones keep going over your head.[/foghorn_leghorn]

 

[trader jake]

With only 8 TD passes this season, Peyton is on pace for his lowest TD passing output of his career...even worse than his rookie year.His yardage totals put him on pace for his third worst passing yardage totals behind his rookie year and last season when the team clinched HFA and he did not play down the stretch.Any homers know why the Colts have taken the game out of his hands and are letting Rhodes/Addai and their defense win games for them now? One hypothesis I have is that Peyton's confidence may be pretty low after last season's horrible ending, and his post game comments hurt his relationship with the team, so now Dungy is trying to cover it up by changing the game plan to take the focus off of Manning and make it a more team oriented approach.I am seriously not fishing here, I know the team is doing well, but was just curious to see what people think the root cause is for Manning's poor statistics (for him) thus far. Thoughts?

Would you like a mulligan?

 

[BassNBrew]

This place is becoming laughable. Every week someone drops a big dukie in the pool and then falls flat face first into it.

So what's Manning pacing at now HK???

 

[BassNBrew]

Not sure, but I think Manning just threw for another TD.

 

[Josh the FunkDOC]

Again, people are just overreacting to the general offensive downswing around the league this year. It was tough to see coming, so I can't say I blame them, but it's time to face the facts.

If you adjust for the current environment, Manning's numbers so far may actually be even more impressive than just about any other season besides 2004. I can't say for sure, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Also, Peyton has never finished as QB1 in a season. You draft him for consistency. I didn't consider him worthy of a first-round pick before the season, since it's rare for a QB to actually produce first-round stats...but looking at it now, you would certainly take him over Alexander or Jordan or Caddy or Edge. There are also guys like Tiki, Ronnie, Portis, and SJax - depending on your league scoring, any or all of them could be very close to Manning in overall value as well.

Basically, his numbers have improved from last year while most players' have gotten worse.

 

[SSOG]

So what's Manning pacing at now HK???

4320/32/5. Not counting his rushing numbers, of course, because everyone knows that rushing numbers for a QB are irrelevant and don't count.

 

[JohnnyU]

So what's Manning pacing at now HK???

4320/32/5. Not counting his rushing numbers, of course, because everyone knows that rushing numbers for a QB are irrelevant and don't count.

Yeah, ol' HK hasn't been back to this thread in awhile.

 

[SSOG]

So what's Manning pacing at now HK???

4320/32/5. Not counting his rushing numbers, of course, because everyone knows that rushing numbers for a QB are irrelevant and don't count.

Yeah, ol' HK hasn't been back to this thread in awhile.

Give him a couple of days. Not everyone checks the boards every Sunday night.

 

[pizzatyme]

Like I mentioned before, I fully expected the offense to have to rely more on Manning against better competition. I think this will continue over the next few weeks.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Manning just threw another TD.

 

[H.K.]

So what's Manning pacing at now HK???

4320/32/5. Not counting his rushing numbers, of course, because everyone knows that rushing numbers for a QB are irrelevant and don't count.

Yeah, ol' HK hasn't been back to this thread in awhile.

Give him a couple of days. Not everyone checks the boards every Sunday night.

I'm back. Anyone know how Manning did yesterday?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

So what's Manning pacing at now HK???

4320/32/5. Not counting his rushing numbers, of course, because everyone knows that rushing numbers for a QB are irrelevant and don't count.

Yeah, ol' HK hasn't been back to this thread in awhile.

Give him a couple of days. Not everyone checks the boards every Sunday night.

I'm back. Anyone know how Manning did yesterday?

They are still tallying the scores with a super computer that can handle all those numbers. I'm guessing sometime this afternoon, so check back in later.