Cstu, montana didn't have rice for his whole career. The last talent manning ever had to work with was 1998, with marvin harrison and marshall faulk. Or maybe 1999, with harrison and edgerrin james. Either way, that's as bad as he ever had it. its unprecedented in nfl history, the collection of receivers he's thrown to. Just like rice has never played with a sucky qb - he went from montana, to young, to rich gannon who won an mvp with him. Amazing. And welker must feel pretty good, too. But for a qb to always have pro bowlers and hall of famers - its never happened like this before. Its not a knock on him, but it shouldn't be surprising that he put up all time great stats when he had this talent every year.
I don't think that it is just coincidence that the guys playing around Peyton were all as good as they were. I think he had an awful lot to do with that. That is something that we will never know but to me it is just too coincidental to be any other way. JMO.
I 100% agree. There's no question in my mind that Manning's receivers did better with him than they would have done with a replacement level quarterback, or even a decent starting quarterback. Just like there's no question in my mind that Moss would never have broken the WR TD record with a lesser QB. Great QBs absolutely elevate the players around them. But you're right that there's a chicken and egg situation here. The thing is, we have enough data points to suggest that those guys were, in fact, pretty good. All those guys were first round picks.
- Marshall Faulk is a hall of famer for what he did with the Rams, far more than for what he did with the Colts.
- Edge had 2800 yards and 13 TDs in Arizona.
- Harrison was on pace for a third year breakout, with over 1700 yards and 14 TDs in his first two seasons playing with a guy who was basically a replacement level QB.
- Wayne had 1355 yards in his last season with Manning, and had exactly 1355 yards in his first year with a rookie - it may have been a great rookie, but it's not Peyton Manning in his prime.
- Dallas Clark is one of a couple players credited with helping to revolutionize the tight end position, because he could move around the field and played more like a wide receiver than a tight end.
In Denver, we have a unique case, because Thomas and Decker played with Tebow, and Thomas was hurt often early in his career. But when Thomas returned healthy at the end of 2011, he played five games with Tebow in which he had 25 catches for 434 yards and 3 TDs - that's a pace for 80 catches, 1392 yards and 10 TDs. The following season, playing with Manning, Thomas had 94 catches for 1434 yards and 10 TDs. Don't get me wrong - doing it for a full season is far more impressive than catching some flukey passes from Tim Tebow. But there's no question that we had enough data to know that he was a good player.
In four games with Kyle Orton - another replacement level player - Eric Decker had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 TDs. That's a pace for 80 catches, 1080 yards and 16 TDs. Denver then massively changed their offense, putting Tebow under center, but in his ensuing five game stretch with Tebow, but before Thomas returned healthy, as the starter, Decker had 15 catches for 261 yards and 4 TDs. That's a pace for 60 catches, 835 yards and 13 TDs. Average that out and you're looking at a pace of about 70 catches, 960 yards and 14 TDs with Orton and Tebow. With Manning, Decker put up 85 catches, 1064 yards and 13 TDs. That's not absurdly off pace.
Welker had an off year. It's not fair to compare his stats as the number one in Brady's offense with his stats as one of several guys in the 2013 offense. But in 13 games, Welker had 73/778/10, compared with 118/1354.6 the year before. We know Welker was talented, he just wasn't the number one guy in the offense anymore.
But anyways, I think your point about Manning elevating these guys is a good one - it's just not as big a factor as you might imagine. These guys all looked good in their opportunities to play before or after Manning. With the exception of Clark, who didn't leave the Colts until he was old enough that his numbers had already started to decline, all of them seemed to be on pace to have good careers with or without Manning.