Player Spotlight: C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: C.J. Spiller Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[msommer]

Spiller is in an interesting situation. Reloaded offense, but with rookies. The coaching staff. New QB. Lots of speed all over the field.

Coming off a season where he quietened his critics and despite some timeshare ended in the top ten at least in ppr with 1700 total yards, 43 receptions and 8 total TDs. A bit of injury time, but nothing too serious. Couple of monster games to start the season, then injury and then solid production rest of the way.

I would predict more of the same, since the rookie mistakes can be drive killers, and not sure he can maintain 6 ypc or carry the load 300 times.

Some 240 rushes for 1250 yards, 5 TDs. 40 rec 420 yards, 3 TDs

 

[fightingillini]

CJ Spiller has top 5 RB potential. The guy can take it to the house on any play, and is such a good receiver. Sure, Fred Jackson will take some carries, but Spiller was a top 10 RB on only about 250 touches. If he can get up to 300 total touches, then I can see a top 5 RB result. The guy is that talented. With a rookie QB, I see a lot more checkdowns.

230 car, 1100 rush yds, 8 TD

60 rec, 525 yds rec, 3 TD

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

It's entirely possible Spiller could get 50-60 more touches this season than last and yet actually record fewer all-purpose yards. His 6.0 YPC and 10.7 YPR were complete statistical anomalies and will be impossible to repeat - not hard, impossible. NFL defenses and coaching staffs just don't let a guy do that to them two years running.

Then again, the yards and TD's he put up on only 250 touches last season was still enough for him to finish RB7, so barring injury another finish in that range seems plausible. I'd consider significant upside from there possible if the Bills panic and throw E.J. Manuel out there at the midway point of the season, as the kid will need a crutch to lean on, but CJ won't ever finish RB1-2 with F-Jax in town; he just won't get the goal-line looks required to do so.

If there's one RB from outside the top 5 from 2012 who will crack it in 2013, I'd say Spiller's the most likely candidate. But he's the kind of "swing for the fences" pick that makes me a little uneasy at his ADP in the 1.7-1.9 range, and I'd probably only do so if I were planning to go RB-RB to start the draft in a league whose scoring format makes that sensible. Otherwise, I'd be inclined to pass, under the mantra "you can't win your fantasy league in the 1st round, but you can lose it there."

Projection: 240 carries, 1,225 yds (5.1 avg), 6 rush TD; 52 rec., 425 yds (8.2 avg), 3 rec TD

 

[Ghost Rider]

Spiller has massive upside, clearly, but to me, the biggest concern is the change in quarterbacks. Even though Fitzpatrick was inconsistent and a turnover machine at times, he knew how to use the RBs out of the backfield and hit them in stride to where they could make big plays; will Kolb (or whoever) be able to do the same? That is the concern, because, with Fred Jackson still there and likely to still garner a lot of touches, Spiller racking up receiving yards could be the difference between him being a possible top 5 RB and a bust (in the sense of probably still being a top 20 RB, but not as awesome as expected).

 

[amicsta]

I hve spiller projected for over 2000 total yards if manuel wins the starting job out of the gate. Weve seen the impact that qbs who can run have on the run game, just another thing for defenses to worry about. Even if Manuel is raw as a passer, those skills will help the run game enough for spiller to possibly maintain a 6 YPC average with over 250 carries.

 

[FF Ninja]

Chan Gailey was a pretty good offensive mind even if he wasn't a popular head coach. In his 3 years their running game went from 4.3 ypc to 4.9 ypc to 5.0 ypc. I think the loss of Gailey, Levitre, and Fitzpatrick will hurt more than Spiller owners want to believe. This is still a rebuilding team, but now it is a rebuilding team in transition. I'm staying away from the Bills.

 

[TheMathNinja]

It's entirely possible Spiller could get 50-60 more touches this season than last and yet actually record fewer all-purpose yards. His 6.0 YPC and 10.7 YPR were complete statistical anomalies and will be impossible to repeat - not hard, impossible. NFL defenses and coaching staffs just don't let a guy do that to them two years running.

Then again, the yards and TD's he put up on only 250 touches last season was still enough for him to finish RB7, so barring injury another finish in that range seems plausible. I'd consider significant upside from there possible if the Bills panic and throw E.J. Manuel out there at the midway point of the season, as the kid will need a crutch to lean on, but CJ won't ever finish RB1-2 with F-Jax in town; he just won't get the goal-line looks required to do so.

If there's one RB from outside the top 5 from 2012 who will crack it in 2013, I'd say Spiller's the most likely candidate. But he's the kind of "swing for the fences" pick that makes me a little uneasy at his ADP in the 1.7-1.9 range, and I'd probably only do so if I were planning to go RB-RB to start the draft in a league whose scoring format makes that sensible. Otherwise, I'd be inclined to pass, under the mantra "you can't win your fantasy league in the 1st round, but you can lose it there."

Projection: 240 carries, 1,225 yds (5.1 avg), 6 rush TD; 52 rec., 425 yds (8.2 avg), 3 rec TD

I want to challenge the idea that defensive gameplanning alone might seriously reduce Spiller's YPC. To be sure, you start stacking 8 in the box, and the guy is gonna have less room to run, but I at least want to note that Spiller's yards largely came from missed tackles and yards after contact (http://bit.ly/W6JZoi). Will those numbers go down if Defenses stack the box? Sure. But Spiller's sick totals in YPC didn't come because defenses were pre-occupied w/ stopping Buffalo's elite passing attack and there was no one at the second level; they came because he can run through tackles and make guys miss. He's still going to be doing that this next year, and I expect his YPC to be significantly above NFL average again.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Owners drafting Spiller in the 1st round are going to be disappointed. He has lost a nice chunk of the interior of what was a ferocious interior OLine. Andy Levitre took off for Tennessee and is a top3 OG in football whether he ever gets named to the Pro Bowl or not. Even what would have been a decent replacement in Chad Rinehart has left for San Diego.

You add in a project QB, the WR2/3 combo of Donald Jones and David Nelson are gone as well, and the new HC-Marrone wants the OL to move away from the smash mouth run block style and is working on cutting down on the weight of all his OLine. This does nto sound good and doesn't sound anything like "The band is all returning"

The band is not all coming back and his stats from last year do not mean much in 2013. Anyone penciling him in for 2012 returns is just wishing for the same return but chasing last years stats never works.

200-950-4Td, 40-300-2TD 1,250 yds and 6 Td on a lousy football team.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

It's entirely possible Spiller could get 50-60 more touches this season than last and yet actually record fewer all-purpose yards. His 6.0 YPC and 10.7 YPR were complete statistical anomalies and will be impossible to repeat - not hard, impossible. NFL defenses and coaching staffs just don't let a guy do that to them two years running.

Then again, the yards and TD's he put up on only 250 touches last season was still enough for him to finish RB7, so barring injury another finish in that range seems plausible. I'd consider significant upside from there possible if the Bills panic and throw E.J. Manuel out there at the midway point of the season, as the kid will need a crutch to lean on, but CJ won't ever finish RB1-2 with F-Jax in town; he just won't get the goal-line looks required to do so.

If there's one RB from outside the top 5 from 2012 who will crack it in 2013, I'd say Spiller's the most likely candidate. But he's the kind of "swing for the fences" pick that makes me a little uneasy at his ADP in the 1.7-1.9 range, and I'd probably only do so if I were planning to go RB-RB to start the draft in a league whose scoring format makes that sensible. Otherwise, I'd be inclined to pass, under the mantra "you can't win your fantasy league in the 1st round, but you can lose it there."

Projection: 240 carries, 1,225 yds (5.1 avg), 6 rush TD; 52 rec., 425 yds (8.2 avg), 3 rec TD

I want to challenge the idea that defensive gameplanning alone might seriously reduce Spiller's YPC. To be sure, you start stacking 8 in the box, and the guy is gonna have less room to run, but I at least want to note that Spiller's yards largely came from missed tackles and yards after contact (http://bit.ly/W6JZoi). Will those numbers go down if Defenses stack the box? Sure. But Spiller's sick totals in YPC didn't come because defenses were pre-occupied w/ stopping Buffalo's elite passing attack and there was no one at the second level; they came because he can run through tackles and make guys miss. He's still going to be doing that this next year, and I expect his YPC to be significantly above NFL average again.

My explanation for why Spiller won't average 6 YPC again was only a partial one, in the name of convenience. Losses on the Bills' OL are another factor. A likely-increased workload is another.

But perhaps the largest contributing factor is simple: reversion to the mean.

Seasons that are extreme statistical outliers - in any phase of the game - almost never repeat. By the same token, I'm confident that Vincent Jackson won't average 19.2 YPR next season, and that the Bears' D won't return 8 interceptions for TDs.

Even Barry Sanders never averaged 5.5+ YPC in consecutive seasons, and we're talking about the most elusive individual to ever set foot on an NFL field. I suppose it's possible that Spiller - even given a full primary-back workload - will be able to do what Sanders couldn't, but forgive me if I don't bet the ranch on it.

 

[jdoggydogg]

In many PPR formats, Spiller finished near the bottom of the top 10. Intuitively, I think 2013 will likely end up with slightly better numbers for Spiller. However, I'd caution eager owners that are counting on a top 3 finish. Sure, Spiller has the potential to finish as the #1 overall RB in fantasy. But Jackson is still relevant, and I just don't see Buffalo grinding Spiller into the ground with a ton of work.

Assuming Spiller plays a mostly compelte schedule, I'll predict 1200 yards and 8 TDs.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

Levitre wasn't the best run blocking guard on the Bills last year. As stated above, Spiller's stats came from him being elusive to a level that hasn't been seen since some guy named Sanders ran the ball in Detroit.

 

[msudaisy26]

It's entirely possible Spiller could get 50-60 more touches this season than last and yet actually record fewer all-purpose yards. His 6.0 YPC and 10.7 YPR were complete statistical anomalies and will be impossible to repeat - not hard, impossible. NFL defenses and coaching staffs just don't let a guy do that to them two years running.

Then again, the yards and TD's he put up on only 250 touches last season was still enough for him to finish RB7, so barring injury another finish in that range seems plausible. I'd consider significant upside from there possible if the Bills panic and throw E.J. Manuel out there at the midway point of the season, as the kid will need a crutch to lean on, but CJ won't ever finish RB1-2 with F-Jax in town; he just won't get the goal-line looks required to do so.

If there's one RB from outside the top 5 from 2012 who will crack it in 2013, I'd say Spiller's the most likely candidate. But he's the kind of "swing for the fences" pick that makes me a little uneasy at his ADP in the 1.7-1.9 range, and I'd probably only do so if I were planning to go RB-RB to start the draft in a league whose scoring format makes that sensible. Otherwise, I'd be inclined to pass, under the mantra "you can't win your fantasy league in the 1st round, but you can lose it there."

Projection: 240 carries, 1,225 yds (5.1 avg), 6 rush TD; 52 rec., 425 yds (8.2 avg), 3 rec TD

I want to challenge the idea that defensive gameplanning alone might seriously reduce Spiller's YPC. To be sure, you start stacking 8 in the box, and the guy is gonna have less room to run, but I at least want to note that Spiller's yards largely came from missed tackles and yards after contact (http://bit.ly/W6JZoi). Will those numbers go down if Defenses stack the box? Sure. But Spiller's sick totals in YPC didn't come because defenses were pre-occupied w/ stopping Buffalo's elite passing attack and there was no one at the second level; they came because he can run through tackles and make guys miss. He's still going to be doing that this next year, and I expect his YPC to be significantly above NFL average again.

My explanation for why Spiller won't average 6 YPC again was only a partial one, in the name of convenience. Losses on the Bills' OL are another factor. A likely-increased workload is another.

But perhaps the largest contributing factor is simple: reversion to the mean.

Seasons that are extreme statistical outliers - in any phase of the game - almost never repeat. By the same token, I'm confident that Vincent Jackson won't average 19.2 YPR next season, and that the Bears' D won't return 8 interceptions for TDs.

Even Barry Sanders never averaged 5.5+ YPC in consecutive seasons, and we're talking about the most elusive individual to ever set foot on an NFL field. I suppose it's possible that Spiller - even given a full primary-back workload - will be able to do what Sanders couldn't, but forgive me if I don't bet the ranch on it.

As fantasy owners why do we care if Spiller only averages 5.0 a carry compared to 6.0 last year if he gets this increased work load? 207 carries for 1244 yards is still worse than 275 carries for 1375 or 300 carries for 1350 if you want to say 4.5.

 

[JPeso]

255 / 1450 / 10 ; 60 / 600 / 3 = 343 PPR

 

[moderated]

He has as good a shot as any rb to lead the league in total yards. Draft accordingly.

 

[cvnpoka]

im taking peterson, foster, mccoy, charles, rice, martin and lynch over him at the most.

 

[Art Vandalay]

What does everyone think about Fred Jackson and his role in the offense.

What will it do to CJ's touches.

What did CJ's goaline work look like last year does anyone have the stats?

 

[deadlyrange0321]

245 carries 1295yds 8TDs

52rec 545yds 3 TDs

 

[zamboni]

What does everyone think about Fred Jackson and his role in the offense.

What will it do to CJ's touches.

What did CJ's goaline work look like last year does anyone have the stats?

Hard to say about Fred, but it was Gailey who was a big fan of Fred, and this is a new regime. I think all bets are off from previous years, and now you have a slowing down, 32 year old guy with a few injuries the past few years and with no coaching support.

I imagine Fred will get some touches, but seems likely that this is the Spiller show now.

As for Spiller's goal line success, I don't have the stats on that but nothing I've read indicated that he was not a good goal line runner.

 

[Art Vandalay]

What does everyone think about Fred Jackson and his role in the offense.

What will it do to CJ's touches.

What did CJ's goaline work look like last year does anyone have the stats?

Hard to say about Fred, but it was Gailey who was a big fan of Fred, and this is a new regime. I think all bets are off from previous years, and now you have a slowing down, 32 year old guy with a few injuries the past few years and with no coaching support.

I imagine Fred will get some touches, but seems likely that this is the Spiller show now.

As for Spiller's goal line success, I don't have the stats on that but nothing I've read indicated that he was not a good goal line runner.

Thanks for responding,

Yes I think CJ agility may benefit him around the goaline and not sure how they will call the new pad level rule but slipping into a hole might be better then trying to plow through this year and getting a penalty

 

[chad in Indy]

What does everyone think about Fred Jackson and his role in the offense.

What will it do to CJ's touches.

What did CJ's goaline work look like last year does anyone have the stats?

Hard to say about Fred, but it was Gailey who was a big fan of Fred, and this is a new regime. I think all bets are off from previous years, and now you have a slowing down, 32 year old guy with a few injuries the past few years and with no coaching support.

I imagine Fred will get some touches, but seems likely that this is the Spiller show now.

As for Spiller's goal line success, I don't have the stats on that but nothing I've read indicated that he was not a good goal line runner.

Thanks for responding,

Yes I think CJ agility may benefit him around the goaline and not sure how they will call the new pad level rule but slipping into a hole might be better then trying to plow through this year and getting a penalty

I think a lot of people are unsure of the running back rule coming into this yr. they aren't going to flag "lowering the head" between the tackles. not to get off topic, but NFL has already addressed that the pad level rule really only applies to outside the box or in open field. not when busting through the line of scrimmage. this is why i think physical runners like Lynch won't drop too much. I too think Spiller's ADP is a little high for me to take the risk. I agree that he is a swing for the fences to make the top 5 this year. I see him more likely to finish somewhere 9-12th.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Ok well being from Toronto the Bills are a team we get to watch...a lot or at least here about in local media

I used to own Fred Jackson as well so I have followed this situation a little bit but would not consider myself an expert in the CJ Spiller field.

They have a completely new offense but in this case that doesn't worry me. Spiller is as good as anyone in the league at receiving out of the back field and inexperience or poor qb play can only increase the short looks he receives.

He doesn't play in a powerhouse division, he plays in a climate that leads you to run the ball more in the later months of the year and the offense isn't any worse then it was last year and the defense should be better.

Take last year and give a slight downtick as its hard to imagine him making hose big plays in two consecutive years but then add an extra 30-60 touches. I think you have a slight upstick in yards and maybe one more TD and you get a top 5 back.

1750 combined and 10 scores

 

[silentcoach]

1320 yards 40 rec 360 yds and 6 tds.

Spiller is great and I think 6 tds is his floor. As explosive as Spiller has seemed, he only has 1 game of over 150 rushing yds and only 2 games of 2 tds for this career.

 

[menobrown]

After ADP I felt his was the second most impressive looking running back last season and he blows ADP away in what he offers as a receiver. He's the closest thing I've seen to Marshall Faulk since Marshall Faulk.

If his QB and offensive line was even middling I'd put him as RB1 in PPR leagues but as is he'll have to settle for 4 or 5.

 

[Art Vandalay]

1320 yards 40 rec 360 yds and 6 tds.

Spiller is great and I think 6 tds is his floor. As explosive as Spiller has seemed, he only has 1 game of over 150 rushing yds and only 2 games of 2 tds for this career.

He hasn't been given the lions share of the carries for what has been a short career so far. Marshall faulk only had 2 150 yards games through 5 years but I think he was prey good

 

[silentcoach]

1320 yards 40 rec 360 yds and 6 tds.

Spiller is great and I think 6 tds is his floor. As explosive as Spiller has seemed, he only has 1 game of over 150 rushing yds and only 2 games of 2 tds for this career.

He hasn't been given the lions share of the carries for what has been a short career so far. Marshall faulk only had 2 150 yards games through 5 years but I think he was prey good

Agreed but in a vaccum would you rather take Charles (we KNOW he's explosive) or Spiller. I love Spiller, but I am taking Charles here. Charles has shown us what he can do on a bad team and a year removed after an acl injury.

Spiller's game with 16 carries or more: 91, 103, 138, 59, 55, and 111 yds rushing (still good).

Charles--87, 233, 92, 140, 100, 87, 107, 127, 165, 226, 87, 93, 177, 173,116, 106, 103, 58, 56, 143, 154, 102, 259. 2/23 with less than 87 yards when carrying the ball 16 times or more (9%).

I do love Spiller though (look at projections I gave him)!

 

[Eminence]

I think Spiller is the real deal as far as being an elite Fantasy Option.

 

[SWC]

i think he will destroy his personal bests this year brohans

 

[tommyGunZ]

Lots of chatter from local Bills sources about Spiller getting a TON of touches this season.

The Bills' website considers 2,000 rushing yards a "possible" achievement for C.J. Spiller in 2013, and suggests Spiller could "arguably" touch the football 30 times per game.
It's an insanely optimistic projection, but notable coming from the team's own official site. In-house beat writer Chris Brown notes rookie coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo Syracuse offenses fired off a whopping 79.1 plays per game, including an average of 41 rushing attempts per contest. In 2012, the Patriots led the NFL with 74.3 plays per game. Per Brown, Buffalo's goal is to wear down opponents, and Marrone doesn't "seem too concerned about giving a back too many carries." We have Spiller locked in as a top-five fantasy back.

Is he an option at the 4 slot in this years draft?

 

[shader]

Lots of chatter from local Bills sources about Spiller getting a TON of touches this season.

The Bills' website considers 2,000 rushing yards a "possible" achievement for C.J. Spiller in 2013, and suggests Spiller could "arguably" touch the football 30 times per game.
It's an insanely optimistic projection, but notable coming from the team's own official site. In-house beat writer Chris Brown notes rookie coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo Syracuse offenses fired off a whopping 79.1 plays per game, including an average of 41 rushing attempts per contest. In 2012, the Patriots led the NFL with 74.3 plays per game. Per Brown, Buffalo's goal is to wear down opponents, and Marrone doesn't "seem too concerned about giving a back too many carries." We have Spiller locked in as a top-five fantasy back.

Is he an option at the 4 slot in this years draft?

It's nice that they want to run a lot of plays, but if your offense isn't that good, it's a pipe dream.

A rookie QB or Kevin Kolb will be running the show. I think all those numbers are insane projections. He's not going to come re-invent the wheel in the NFL straight out of Syracuse.

 

[steveski]

Lots of chatter from local Bills sources about Spiller getting a TON of touches this season.

The Bills' website considers 2,000 rushing yards a "possible" achievement for C.J. Spiller in 2013, and suggests Spiller could "arguably" touch the football 30 times per game.
It's an insanely optimistic projection, but notable coming from the team's own official site. In-house beat writer Chris Brown notes rookie coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo Syracuse offenses fired off a whopping 79.1 plays per game, including an average of 41 rushing attempts per contest. In 2012, the Patriots led the NFL with 74.3 plays per game. Per Brown, Buffalo's goal is to wear down opponents, and Marrone doesn't "seem too concerned about giving a back too many carries." We have Spiller locked in as a top-five fantasy back.

Is he an option at the 4 slot in this years draft?

To me, it goes like this:

ADP

Charles

Foster OR Martin OR Spiller

I'm personally hoping for the 5 spot so I get one of those guys and then can grab a pretty nice RB2 at the turn.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Ok well being from Toronto the Bills are a team we get to watch...a lot or at least here about in local media

I used to own Fred Jackson as well so I have followed this situation a little bit but would not consider myself an expert in the CJ Spiller field.

They have a completely new offense but in this case that doesn't worry me. Spiller is as good as anyone in the league at receiving out of the back field and inexperience or poor qb play can only increase the short looks he receives.

He doesn't play in a powerhouse division, he plays in a climate that leads you to run the ball more in the later months of the year and the offense isn't any worse then it was last year and the defense should be better.

Take last year and give a slight downtick as its hard to imagine him making hose big plays in two consecutive years but then add an extra 30-60 touches. I think you have a slight upstick in yards and maybe one more TD and you get a top 5 back.

1750 combined and 10 scores

Marone was a Saints offensive assistant (possibly the first sprout of a future Sean Payton coaching tree), I think people are going to be pretty surprised by the aggressiveness coming out of the Bills. The question is what the QB will do, but if you look at what he did with the Orangemen Marone got a ton of mileage out of Nassib (arguably Kolb-like) and his RBs including Delone Carter in 2011 and his top two RBs actually got like 385 carries and around 2000 yards between the two of them.

I think for the first time in a long time the Bills are actually going to be "fun" to watch.

 

[shader]

Ok well being from Toronto the Bills are a team we get to watch...a lot or at least here about in local media

I used to own Fred Jackson as well so I have followed this situation a little bit but would not consider myself an expert in the CJ Spiller field.

They have a completely new offense but in this case that doesn't worry me. Spiller is as good as anyone in the league at receiving out of the back field and inexperience or poor qb play can only increase the short looks he receives.

He doesn't play in a powerhouse division, he plays in a climate that leads you to run the ball more in the later months of the year and the offense isn't any worse then it was last year and the defense should be better.

Take last year and give a slight downtick as its hard to imagine him making hose big plays in two consecutive years but then add an extra 30-60 touches. I think you have a slight upstick in yards and maybe one more TD and you get a top 5 back.

1750 combined and 10 scores

Marone was a Saints offensive assistant, I think people are going to be pretty surprised by the aggressiveness coming out of the Bills. The question is what the QB will do, but if you look at what he did with Orangemen Marone got a ton of mileage out of Nassib (arguably Kolb-like) and his RBs including Delone Carter in 2011 and his top two RBs actually got like 385 carries and around 2000 yards between the two of them.

I think for the first time in a long time the Bills are actually going to be "fun" to watch.

Comparing Nassib in a weak college division to Kolb or a rookie in the NFL is really stretching it, which is what the "local beat writer" is doing.

You aren't going to be able to pull off a "fast-paced" offense like this in the NFL, unless you have consistency at the QB position.

If they try it and fail, the defense will stay on the field and fall apart.

 

[T with T]

255 / 1450 / 10 ; 60 / 600 / 3 = 343 PPR

that would put him at RB1 overall in ppr AP only scored like 320. I have Spiller top 2.... 1500- 1600 rushing and 400-500 rec and 10-12 total tds with 50-60 catches is what I expect.

 

[steveski]

C.J. Spiller leaves Bills for personal reasonsSource: NFL.comRunning back C.J. Spiller, expected to be the central weapon in the Buffalo Bills' offense this season, has left the team indefinitely to be with his family in Florida after the suicide of his step-grandfather, Hubert Allen, Jr.

Allen Jr. allegedly killed two people and shot two others before killing himself on Saturday.

Bills coach Doug Marrone said the team has been in contact with Spiller, but there's no timetable as to when the fourth-year player will return.

"I talked to him when we landed from the Washington game," Marrone said, according to CBS Sports. "I obviously excused him to be able to go back and handle obviously what is a personal situation. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims as well as C.J. and his family in this situation. ...We're in communication just making sure that we're there to support him."

Yikes.

 

[Kyle_Wright]

http://fantasyfootballwarehouse.com/c-j-spiller-at-1-01/

 

[CentralPA]

I'm picking No. 2 in a redraft standard scoring league this year. I think I might take him over Martin. I never thought taking the No. 2 overall pick would be as hard as it is this year. So many good options.

 

[ahartig]

C.J. Spiller leaves Bills for personal reasons Source: NFL.comRunning back C.J. Spiller, expected to be the central weapon in the Buffalo Bills' offense this season, has left the team indefinitely to be with his family in Florida after the suicide of his step-grandfather, Hubert Allen, Jr.

Allen Jr. allegedly killed two people and shot two others before killing himself on Saturday.

Bills coach Doug Marrone said the team has been in contact with Spiller, but there's no timetable as to when the fourth-year player will return.

"I talked to him when we landed from the Washington game," Marrone said, according to CBS Sports. "I obviously excused him to be able to go back and handle obviously what is a personal situation. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the victims as well as C.J. and his family in this situation. ...We're in communication just making sure that we're there to support him."

Yikes.

Update, according to Bills twitter account he will be back Sunday. I feel for the kid, has to be gut-wrenching. I hope he recovers and only gets stronger:

https://twitter.com/buffalobills/status/372362279771074560

 

[T with T]

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/CJ-Spiller-worried-heavy-workload-11893

Here is an interesting article I ran upon last night. Ever since I drafted CJ spiller 2 overall I have be scouring the internet for good news about him and all the talk of Marrone giving him a huge workload until he throws up blah blah blah. I even got a clip where CJ spiller has a personal goal to rush for 2000.... Someone is lying here, either CJ spiller thinks he can avg 8 ypc and have 250 carries and rush for 2000, which we know is probably not possible or he is just being cautious because in the article it clearly states Spiller wants to rush about 12 carries a game which has been what he has been getting his whole career.... I sure hope this guy isn't overvalued because of what a dumb coach said... I highly doubt the guy gets 300 carries.. I think he has an awesome year but after reading this maybe 300 touches total is poss, not much more 250 carries x 50-60 catches which would still easily put him in the top 3..... Thoughts on this article or am I reading to much into it... Here is the article CJ said his goal is to rush for 2000....confused because these tell two different stories... I think anyone expecting 350-400 touches better simmer down he isn't AP...

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/bills-rb-spiller-2-000-yard-goal-article-1.1427991

 

[NajehHejan]

T with T, wish I had seen that before I took him over Trich. What a wuss!

 

[Pumpnick]

eh, if thats the worst thing we have to worry about going into game 1 i'll take it.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

IMO Jackson is way undervalued and Spiller is way overvalued.

Spiller can not be a bell cow back, as I have previously stated.

Buyer beware.

 

[ahartig]

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/CJ-Spiller-worried-heavy-workload-11893

Here is an interesting article I ran upon last night. Ever since I drafted CJ spiller 2 overall I have be scouring the internet for good news about him and all the talk of Marrone giving him a huge workload until he throws up blah blah blah. I even got a clip where CJ spiller has a personal goal to rush for 2000.... Someone is lying here, either CJ spiller thinks he can avg 8 ypc and have 250 carries and rush for 2000, which we know is probably not possible or he is just being cautious because in the article it clearly states Spiller wants to rush about 12 carries a game which has been what he has been getting his whole career.... I sure hope this guy isn't overvalued because of what a dumb coach said... I highly doubt the guy gets 300 carries.. I think he has an awesome year but after reading this maybe 300 touches total is poss, not much more 250 carries x 50-60 catches which would still easily put him in the top 3..... Thoughts on this article or am I reading to much into it... Here is the article CJ said his goal is to rush for 2000....confused because these tell two different stories... I think anyone expecting 350-400 touches better simmer down he isn't AP...

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/bills-rb-spiller-2-000-yard-goal-article-1.1427991

I wouldnt worry. Seems like he is just being modest in the first radio interview. All he said is that he has averaged about 12 touches per game through his career and that he couldn't flip the switch to touching the ball close to 400 times (like Arian Foster). The whole time I think he is referencing back to the insane amount of touches that Foster got last year.

I drafted him at the 3 spot this year and in no way want him to touch the ball over 25 times per game. Dude averaged 6 ypc and 10 ypr last year. I would be ecstatic with him getting 15-20 runs per game and 3-5 receptions per game.... that's all you need with him.

 

[T with T]

T with T, wish I had seen that before I took him over Trich. What a wuss!

yea no sh.t man I was upset when I saw that..... if he is gonna be wimpy he isn't gonna even get 1500... That really had to marinate for a while still upset that sounds like he wants to be used like he has been and doesn't want 300 touches....

 

[T with T]

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/CJ-Spiller-worried-heavy-workload-11893

Here is an interesting article I ran upon last night. Ever since I drafted CJ spiller 2 overall I have be scouring the internet for good news about him and all the talk of Marrone giving him a huge workload until he throws up blah blah blah. I even got a clip where CJ spiller has a personal goal to rush for 2000.... Someone is lying here, either CJ spiller thinks he can avg 8 ypc and have 250 carries and rush for 2000, which we know is probably not possible or he is just being cautious because in the article it clearly states Spiller wants to rush about 12 carries a game which has been what he has been getting his whole career.... I sure hope this guy isn't overvalued because of what a dumb coach said... I highly doubt the guy gets 300 carries.. I think he has an awesome year but after reading this maybe 300 touches total is poss, not much more 250 carries x 50-60 catches which would still easily put him in the top 3..... Thoughts on this article or am I reading to much into it... Here is the article CJ said his goal is to rush for 2000....confused because these tell two different stories... I think anyone expecting 350-400 touches better simmer down he isn't AP...

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/bills-rb-spiller-2-000-yard-goal-article-1.1427991

I wouldnt worry. Seems like he is just being modest in the first radio interview. All he said is that he has averaged about 12 touches per game through his career and that he couldn't flip the switch to touching the ball close to 400 times (like Arian Foster). The whole time I think he is referencing back to the insane amount of touches that Foster got last year.

I drafted him at the 3 spot this year and in no way want him to touch the ball over 25 times per game. Dude averaged 6 ypc and 10 ypr last year. I would be ecstatic with him getting 15-20 runs per game and 3-5 receptions per game.... that's all you need with him.

yea I agree but it sounded like he was shying away from even 20 carries a game... obviously 25 a game would be 400 carries alone not to mention catches which is totally unrealistic anyway but I had thought 300 carries and 50-60 catches was poss but that scares me. Is last year his Ceiling and not floor?

 

[T with T]

he is basically saying 20 carries a game for him would be hard for him WHAT???? here is the quote

Later in the interview, he had this to say about the possible workload: "There’s no way I can just flip the switch and say I want to carry it this many times, because in my whole career, if you start from high school, I probably average 12 carries," he said. "For me to flip that and say let me carry it 20 times, it would be hard for me to do, a hard adjustment."

 

[T with T]

great so I drafted a guy 2 overall that wants 12 carries/game haha

 

[T with T]

I hope he can get 20 carries a game with 4 catches 20x4 =24 touches a game would be great.

 

[Squintz82]

Let's all overreact

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

http://www.tigernet.com/update/player/CJ-Spiller-worried-heavy-workload-11893

Here is an interesting article I ran upon last night. Ever since I drafted CJ spiller 2 overall I have be scouring the internet for good news about him and all the talk of Marrone giving him a huge workload until he throws up blah blah blah. I even got a clip where CJ spiller has a personal goal to rush for 2000.... Someone is lying here, either CJ spiller thinks he can avg 8 ypc and have 250 carries and rush for 2000, which we know is probably not possible or he is just being cautious because in the article it clearly states Spiller wants to rush about 12 carries a game which has been what he has been getting his whole career.... I sure hope this guy isn't overvalued because of what a dumb coach said... I highly doubt the guy gets 300 carries.. I think he has an awesome year but after reading this maybe 300 touches total is poss, not much more 250 carries x 50-60 catches which would still easily put him in the top 3..... Thoughts on this article or am I reading to much into it... Here is the article CJ said his goal is to rush for 2000....confused because these tell two different stories... I think anyone expecting 350-400 touches better simmer down he isn't AP...

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/bills-rb-spiller-2-000-yard-goal-article-1.1427991

Funny because what I took from all that was the OC saying this:

asked Hackett if Spiller will be focal point of offense: "we will give him the ball until he throws up or taps out"

That sounds pretty awesome FF-wise.