Saints missed the Super Bowl, I missed out winning the FBG playoff contest as I was heavy NE/NO. Stinkin Ref cost me a lifetime FBG subscription and some walking around money.
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Potential NFL competitive integrity issue brought to light in Rams @ Saints game (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Doug B
- Start date
DropKick
Footballguy
I remember a Ravens game; play-offs - possibly a championship game where all the line-man held on purpose, a couple with bear hugs. Their goal was to run as much clock as possible and take an intentional safety. A penalty didn't matter... so everybody was clearly holding while the QB killed an eternity before going out of bounds. Yes, it was a safety (by design). However, not a single flag dropped despite blatant and intentional holding. These guys are reluctant to throw a flag at crunch time.
I apologize. I don't know what you think about the timing. I should have some some folks seem to not understand the timing and how it changes the situation.
Has nothing to do with agreeing with me.
Would you agree if the PI call is made, it's nearly certain the Saints run the clock down, kick the chip shot FG, and kickoff with a few seconds on the clock?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
For sure. And assuming they don't run back the kickoff.
What would you estimate the chances of them making the kick and not allowing the Rams to score with a few seconds left? In other words, what would you estimate the Win Probability for the Saints to be if they are lining up to kick the chip shot with a few seconds on the clock?
bostonfred
Footballguy
It's certainly between 50 and 100 percent. Let's assume the two teams are perfectly evenly matched and overtime is a 50/50 proposition.
Now let's guess the play calls. I understand that Payton later said he'd kneel three times and kick, but in a similar run the clock down situation, i watched him pass on first, run on second and pass on third.
If he decides to go for the touchdown, does he try 3 straight runs? I've seen other coaches do it in that situation. The rams had a timeout left, so if the saints score a touchdown on first or second there would have been close to two minutes left for the rams to try to tie. And of course every handoff has a higher chance of a fumble.
Does he kneel twice then hand off once? Again, a touchdown would leave time on the clock but give them a bigger lead
If they kneel three times, do they make the kick? Lutz is 25 of 25 from under 30 but has 5 missed extra points, so maybe well call it 95 percent that he makes the kick?
How much time do they leave on the clock? Does each kneel down take 1 second? Two? None? A lot depends on the clock operator. Same thing for how long the field goal attempt takes. Sometimes that clock stops right away sometimes it seems to drift
How do they kick off? If they squib it to the 30 or so, does it go out of bounds? Is there time for goff to complete a sideline pass to cooks before a kick? Greg the leg hit a 57 yard kick in overtime that looked like it would have been good from 67, so i think they'd have attempted it from midfield.
I don't know, maybe they were 90 percent likely to win? Figure 95 percent likely to make the kick and 5 percent for all the other stuff? That's probably too much. Maybe 92?
What were they instead, about 60 percent? They still took a lead with under two minutes left and if it went to overtime they were 50/50, but they could lose on a touchdown in the 4th, so 60 percent feels about right. Maybe a little higher. We know they win the coin toss, and according to other threads he that rule needs an emergency overhaul.
The point is the call didn't decide the game. It would have greatly improved the saints chances, but it didn't decide the game. There are plenty of calls that literally do decide the game - like the Dez Bryant catch. If the saints had been leading at the time and the call would have allowed them to kneel three times and not kick, that would count too. But as sympathetic as i was when it happened, i've lost that sympathy because the national response seems to be that it was an automatic win.
There was still football left to be played. They got hosed by the refs and went back to play and screwed up 3 straight opportunities to win - stop the rams from tying the game, take the overtime toss that they won and score, or don't give up a score. And knowing that, maybe that 90 percent estimate was a little high.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
It's more likely they make the kick than not, but the way kicking has gone this year in general, I wouldnt be surprised if he missed it.
We focus on that one play but ik sure there were other plays that happened in the entire game that could have allowed the rams to kick a fg.
on a side note,
No one is focusing on the question: how did that ref miss the call? I think people are seeing blown calls and wanting technology to fix it. I think that's a completely wrong way to look at it. IMO replay has resulted in lazy officiating which is what we have today. fix the problem by making referees full time employees and investing in their skills. that's the answer, not technology.
Thanks. What do you think the Win Probability % would be if the Saints were set to kick a 25 yard field goal with 7 seconds on the clock?
Looking for a single number here.
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brettdj
Footballguy
They are converting officials to full time. 25 full time in the league. There were 2 full timers on each conference championship game, they were on the opposite sideline in this game.
If full time was the answer, then this all star crew would have had close to a full slate of full time officials.
Doug B
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
I already agreed with this up-thread. Yes the Saints almost certainly win if the correct call is made. But I answered "so what" then and still say "so what" now. The call was missed and the Saints unfortunately had to continue playing into overtime. 18 snaps occurred after the Saints made the FG to take a 23-20 lead with under 2 minutes to play - they didn't do enough on those 18 snaps.
To add - I'm sorry to be so dogged on this. I don't mean to badger. (or use two animal metaphors on the first line...)
This was just remarkable to me as I'm strongly in the camp of not pointing to the officials after every loss.
But in this case, I don't see any other answer than the officials decided this game on an egregiously awful non-call. And purely from someone who loves the NFL, that worries me. I don't want this to happen again.
So sorry for me posting so much on this.
This was just remarkable to me as I'm strongly in the camp of not pointing to the officials after every loss.
But in this case, I don't see any other answer than the officials decided this game on an egregiously awful non-call. And purely from someone who loves the NFL, that worries me. I don't want this to happen again.
So sorry for me posting so much on this.
Thanks. That's where we just have to disagree then. Once I agree the game should have been over, "so what" isn't in the picture. I think I understand where you're coming from. We just disagree. And that's ok. That's what makes sports interesting.
I disagree with this logic. Any time a game comes is as close as that one, you can point to a million factors that could have swung the outcome. But this was one where if the refs hadn't blown the call the Saints would definitely have won. If the standard is teams are only allowed to complain when they have done literally everything else correctly, then you're essentially saying teams are never allowed to blame the refs.
Steeler
Footballguy
Tanner9919
Footballguy
sooo..after the *cough* missed call, the Rams still had to score to take this game to OT, right? and t then had to stop the 'Aints to get possession in OT, right? and then they had to hit a 87 yard FG by greg the leg correct??
just checkin'
better team won
/Thread
just checkin'
better team won
/Thread
If the Rams were not able to do those things and the Saints still won then this blown call would not be nearly as talked about. The result remained the same as if the correct call were made. The reason this is such a big deal to many people is because the outcome changed. If the unanimously agreed upon correct call was made the Saints go to the Super Bowl (98% chance).
The difference between this missed call and a missed call in the 2nd quarter is that this directly led to a different outcome. Call made and Saints go to the Super Bowl. Call missed and Rams ended up going to the Super Bowl. A different outcome was allowed to happened because the call was missed. A different outcome did not have to happen but it did which is why this is such a huge issue.
Understood. We just completely disagree there. And again, that's ok.
Let's say Steelers are driving for a Super Bowl win. On the last play of the game, James Conner runs to the endzone and clearly gets the ball over the goal line and scores and the game should be over.
But the refs clearly without question wrongly say the ball did not get over the endzone and the game is over. The refs clearly make an error here that is not reviewable.
You're ok with
?
kneeshooter
Footballguy
There's a reason the win probability is never 100% until 0:00. Byner fumbles, Romo botches the snap, Lattimore misses a tackle, Marshawn watches as Russel Wilson throws an interception etc etc. We can all play out the likely scenario but that is never a given in sports. Bottom line, we have no idea what actually would have happened if the DPI is called.
Steeler
Footballguy
I would be upset the Steelers lost the game for sure, but I would not blame the officials. There are what 60? 80? snaps in an NFL game? If that scenario plays out as you described it would suck, but I would think about whatever plays the Steelers failed to make earlier in the game that let them to the point were that last call mattered.Understood. We just completely disagree there. And again, that's ok.
Let's say Steelers are driving for a Super Bowl win. On the last play of the game, James Conner runs to the endzone and clearly gets the ball over the goal line and scores and the game should be over.
But the refs clearly without question wrongly say the ball did not get over the endzone and the game is over. The refs clearly make an error here that is not reviewable.
You're ok with
Yes, I was using shorthand. I could have been more accurate and said "They almost certainly would have won."
But it is wrong to say we have "no idea" what would have happened. We can say with 98% certainty what would have happened. If I'm watching an NFL game where the team that's ahead has the ball with 30 seconds left and the other team out of time outs and I decide to turn the TV off before the kneel down, I still have a pretty good idea of who won the game, even if I can't say it with 100% certainty.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
I'm sorry but I can't even take you seriously any more. OF COURSE you would blame the officials if it was a blatant wrong (or non) call! NO WAY would you say, "well boys we played a tough game and scored but hey that's the breaks." Your team was just robbed of the game winning score. You don't just say, welp, should've gotten that first down back in the first quarter and this wouldn't have mattered. While factually correct, it's being obtuse to willfully ignore the timing of the call, and the resulting outcome. It absolutely matters. This, of course, is slightly different than the Saints scenario, since there was no actual score on the play, but without the tackle of the WR, it in all likelihood was a touchdown (the DB admitted himself that's why he did it! ), but not even arguing that as it is conjecture.
Doug B
Footballguy
This means game officials have no accountability whatsoever. Taken to a logical conclusion, it would mean that game fixing via referee is legitimate. I know you didn't say that, but think about what the consequences are in an environment where it's totally out of bounds to question officials and their game decisions.
Steeler
Footballguy
I don't know what to tell you. I don't like playing the victim card in my own life and I extend that to sports.
Steeler
Footballguy
I'm not the NFL. THEY should take this missed call very seriously. They should do whatever they deem necessary to prevent something like this from happening again.
Doug B
Footballguy
That ethic works a lot of the time both in sports and life. But it can't be an absolute.
Doug B
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Here's the nutshell of the argument being made. If the Rams were up 35-0 and this no-call was on a garbage-time play that didn't mean anything, this wouldn't even be on the radar of discussion. But it was. It mattered greatly. That's essentially the same argument you are making if you say that at any point prior to the no-call that if the Saints had gotten a first down here or scored a TD instead of FG there, then the no-call wouldn't have mattered. There are certain points where it means more.
Right. It's OK to play the "victim card" if you are, in fact, a victim. If you're walking down the street and you get mugged, there are a million things you could have done differently -- walked down a different street, carried less cash, taken a self-defense class -- but ultimately it's the fault of the mugger.
Anyway, this is a philosophical debate that's unresolvable. I think @Steeler's position is way too absolutist, but we're clearly not going to convince him otherwise.
Doug B
Footballguy
This is actually the fundamental point to this entire thread, regardless of the several side discussions that have taken place.
Steeler, from the vantage point of your personal ethic ... should the NFL take this missed call seriously in the interest of "fairness"? Or in the interest of something else, such as "avoiding the mere appearance of impropriety"?
I do wonder how many people feel like @Steeler and just blindly accept the blown call, don't put any blame on the officials and
if it's their team? I can't imagine many. I can't do that and it's not even my team.But it's always interesting to hear radically different perspectives.
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STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Why are you guys arguing over this when what really caused the Saints loss was their arrogant coach throwing a pass on first down instead of running three times and kicking the winning field goal?
Steeler
Footballguy
I take a bit of exception to "blindly" because I do see your POV even though blown calls don't make me upset.just blindly accept the blown call, don't put any blame on the officials and
The outcome of Steeler games used to be life and death for me. Now that I'm older I just don't care as much because I watch the NFL, play FF and play DFS for entertainment, to get away from the stress of every day life. I'm still pretty emotionally invested during the games, but if a blown call would make me this upset I would consider not watching the NFL. I realize I'm in the minority on that, and that's ok.
Interesting. I can relate to what you're saying. I was 14 when Isiah Thomas threw the ball away to Larry Bird right as the Pistons were on the verge of putting away the Celtics, and I was absolutely inconsolable. I can't imagine ever being that invested in a sports team again.
On the other hand, if the Lions were about to lock up their first-ever Super Bowl appearance and a ref's call jobbed them, that would be a tough pill to swallow. I'm sure I would have more perspective on it than I did as a teenager, but I'm honestly not sure how I'd deal with it.
This is what I find interesting. I take great exception to the refs deciding the game and I have no bias for New Orleans. I'm not a Saints fan.
I hate it for the integrity of the league as a whole. It's an awful look for the NFL.
Doug B
Footballguy
And THIS is a bigger deal -- a much bigger deal -- than which team won or lost the game. This issue transcends any one franchise's interests.
Couldn't the issue be the execution of the play just as much as the play call? The WR was open for a simple throw that Brees completes probably 90% of the time it may be a first down or TD and the bad officiating is moot. You are blaming the play call because the execution was poor.
It would be similar to blaming the play call if they decided to run the ball and the RB fumbled the ball. If the play is executed properly the call doesn't matter.
Doug B
Footballguy
Not really germane to this thread, but also:
Sean Payton did call a running play on the first down before the No-Call. Drew Brees audibled out of Payton's play call when he saw nine in the box. It was, IMHO, very much the right call on Brees' part -- play for one more first down and THEN kneel it three times. That particular slant to Thomas was completed 11 of 12 times during the regular season.
Sean Payton did call a running play on the first down before the No-Call. Drew Brees audibled out of Payton's play call when he saw nine in the box. It was, IMHO, very much the right call on Brees' part -- play for one more first down and THEN kneel it three times. That particular slant to Thomas was completed 11 of 12 times during the regular season.
One of the more surprising things I've seen on this board in a while is how many serious NFL people
at this. It's fascinating to me. Similar threads
