Put the Trent Richardson pipe down! (1 Viewer)

[GreenNGold]

I'm with Banger, Abe, & MAC_32:<Open-mind>I agree with many in here about the knocks on TR. Does FBG have him ranked too high? Quite possible. As do many other sites this year. He should not be a top 12 player or even a top 10 RB. HOWEVER, those saying they wouldn’t take him in the 4th round…5th round? Really?

I don't think anyone is saying that. I can see someone gambling on him in the 4th or 5th round, but FBG is pumping him as solid 2nd round pick and has already crowned him to be the next ADP.Meanwhile, if you go to his FBG player page, it is all hype hype hype. His player page and latest news sections have zero mention of his injury. I guess if you buy a subscription for expert analysis you are expected to do your own research elsewhere?

 

[zilladog]

What is FBG's answer to last year's Mark Ingram debacle? They double down on yet another unproven rookie, who just happens to be injured this time and is questionable to even be ready for the start of the regular season. We have seen how holdouts have impacted already proven studs like Chris Johnson, who are healthy yet unable to get into game shape for the regular season. How do they think some unproven rookie who is injured and missing the entire preseason is going to be ready to put up RB1 numbers? Hint: They are insane. Last year they insisted on drafting Mark Ingram in the 2nd round, now they are stating the same thing for Trent Richardson even more vocally. Do not fall for it.

FBG is developing quite the history of completely overrating every single college player. Consider this your wake-up call FBG, put your focus back on the NFL. You aren't in college anymore.

PROTIP: Avoid this scrub.

Right, let's not use the multitudes of talent evaluator's opinions, including our own eyes to see what this guy's all about. instead, let's use a completely different player's example, who went to a completely different team in a completely different year into a completely different system with completely different coaches who has a completely different back story (except Bama), who's actually a completely different person all together from the one we are evaluating now.

Because obviously every player in even remotely similar situations end up with the exact same career path. No need to use real judgment skills or insight of any kind with this guy. It's so much easier to assume he's exactly like the last guy. Homework done! let's go get some pizza.

Sorry if I came across like a jerk just now. It's not usually like me. But this "logic" has more holes in it than a soccer net.

 

[werdnoynek]

What is FBG's answer to last year's Mark Ingram debacle? They double down on yet another unproven rookie, who just happens to be injured this time and is questionable to even be ready for the start of the regular season. We have seen how holdouts have impacted already proven studs like Chris Johnson, who are healthy yet unable to get into game shape for the regular season. How do they think some unproven rookie who is injured and missing the entire preseason is going to be ready to put up RB1 numbers? Hint: They are insane. Last year they insisted on drafting Mark Ingram in the 2nd round, now they are stating the same thing for Trent Richardson even more vocally. Do not fall for it.

FBG is developing quite the history of completely overrating every single college player. Consider this your wake-up call FBG, put your focus back on the NFL. You aren't in college anymore.

PROTIP: Avoid this scrub.

Right, let's not use the multitudes of talent evaluator's opinions, including our own eyes to see what this guy's all about. instead, let's use a completely different player's example, who went to a completely different team in a completely different year into a completely different system with completely different coaches who has a completely different back story (except Bama), who's actually a completely different person all together from the one we are evaluating now.

Because obviously every player in even remotely similar situations end up with the exact same career path. No need to use real judgment skills or insight of any kind with this guy. It's so much easier to assume he's exactly like the last guy. Homework done! let's go get some pizza.

Sorry if I came across like a jerk just now. It's not usually like me. But this "logic" has more holes in it than a soccer net.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

I'm a Richardson backer but even I would cringe at the ADP comparisons. For my eye, he doesn't resemble ADP at all. Peterson coming out was a ridiculous combination of 225 pound power back with the speed and open field moves of a Gale Sayers. I've said it before but Richardson reminds me more of a young Marshawn Lynch who uses his 225 pounds in a much more physical style hitting the hole consistently hard and trying to punish defenders and break tackles with every carry. Richardson does have good speed as well but I haven't seen anything close to resembling ADP's full speed cuts in the open field.

 

[GreenNGold]

What is FBG's answer to last year's Mark Ingram debacle? They double down on yet another unproven rookie, who just happens to be injured this time and is questionable to even be ready for the start of the regular season. We have seen how holdouts have impacted already proven studs like Chris Johnson, who are healthy yet unable to get into game shape for the regular season. How do they think some unproven rookie who is injured and missing the entire preseason is going to be ready to put up RB1 numbers? Hint: They are insane. Last year they insisted on drafting Mark Ingram in the 2nd round, now they are stating the same thing for Trent Richardson even more vocally. Do not fall for it.

FBG is developing quite the history of completely overrating every single college player. Consider this your wake-up call FBG, put your focus back on the NFL. You aren't in college anymore.

PROTIP: Avoid this scrub.

Right, let's not use the multitudes of talent evaluator's opinions, including our own eyes to see what this guy's all about. instead, let's use a completely different player's example, who went to a completely different team in a completely different year into a completely different system with completely different coaches who has a completely different back story (except Bama), who's actually a completely different person all together from the one we are evaluating now.

Because obviously every player in even remotely similar situations end up with the exact same career path. No need to use real judgment skills or insight of any kind with this guy. It's so much easier to assume he's exactly like the last guy. Homework done! let's go get some pizza.

Sorry if I came across like a jerk just now. It's not usually like me. But this "logic" has more holes in it than a soccer net.

Exactly. Using judgement I know this clown should not be going in the 2nd round. 2 knee surgeries in the last 6 months. Unproven rookie with no time to practice or adjust to the speed of the NFL. On a bad offense with 8 games against top-10 run defenses last year. Give me a proven stud like Marshawn Lynch instead (people laughed at me last year when I said Lynch was better than Ingram too).

 

[Sabertooth]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

This is pretty much what I think.

 

[Sabertooth]

Drafted him at the 1st/2nd round turn in an early draft $ league and havent looked back or regretted it even slightly.

Ok. Well I don't know if somebody picking him that high is going to feel any regret just yet. The season hasn't started yet.

 

[zilladog]

What is FBG's answer to last year's Mark Ingram debacle? They double down on yet another unproven rookie, who just happens to be injured this time and is questionable to even be ready for the start of the regular season. We have seen how holdouts have impacted already proven studs like Chris Johnson, who are healthy yet unable to get into game shape for the regular season. How do they think some unproven rookie who is injured and missing the entire preseason is going to be ready to put up RB1 numbers? Hint: They are insane. Last year they insisted on drafting Mark Ingram in the 2nd round, now they are stating the same thing for Trent Richardson even more vocally. Do not fall for it.

FBG is developing quite the history of completely overrating every single college player. Consider this your wake-up call FBG, put your focus back on the NFL. You aren't in college anymore.

PROTIP: Avoid this scrub.

Right, let's not use the multitudes of talent evaluator's opinions, including our own eyes to see what this guy's all about. instead, let's use a completely different player's example, who went to a completely different team in a completely different year into a completely different system with completely different coaches who has a completely different back story (except Bama), who's actually a completely different person all together from the one we are evaluating now.

Because obviously every player in even remotely similar situations end up with the exact same career path. No need to use real judgment skills or insight of any kind with this guy. It's so much easier to assume he's exactly like the last guy. Homework done! let's go get some pizza.

Sorry if I came across like a jerk just now. It's not usually like me. But this "logic" has more holes in it than a soccer net.

Exactly. Using judgement I know this clown should not be going in the 2nd round. 2 knee surgeries in the last 6 months. Unproven rookie with no time to practice or adjust to the speed of the NFL. On a bad offense with 8 games against top-10 run defenses last year. Give me a proven stud like Marshawn Lynch instead (people laughed at me last year when I said Lynch was better than Ingram too).

And what happens if Richardson outperforms expectations and finishes as a top 5 back? Are you going to point to the next #1 rookie RB in line and call him the second coming of jesus, and point to TRich the year before as evidence?You are free to hate on any RB you want. I'm simply calling the process flawed.

 

[jurb26]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

This is pretty much what I think.

These are all very poor examples though. the only one remotely close would be McFadden, who was very good in his rookie year but injured.

 

[jurb26]

What is FBG's answer to last year's Mark Ingram debacle? They double down on yet another unproven rookie, who just happens to be injured this time and is questionable to even be ready for the start of the regular season. We have seen how holdouts have impacted already proven studs like Chris Johnson, who are healthy yet unable to get into game shape for the regular season. How do they think some unproven rookie who is injured and missing the entire preseason is going to be ready to put up RB1 numbers? Hint: They are insane. Last year they insisted on drafting Mark Ingram in the 2nd round, now they are stating the same thing for Trent Richardson even more vocally. Do not fall for it.

FBG is developing quite the history of completely overrating every single college player. Consider this your wake-up call FBG, put your focus back on the NFL. You aren't in college anymore.

PROTIP: Avoid this scrub.

Right, let's not use the multitudes of talent evaluator's opinions, including our own eyes to see what this guy's all about. instead, let's use a completely different player's example, who went to a completely different team in a completely different year into a completely different system with completely different coaches who has a completely different back story (except Bama), who's actually a completely different person all together from the one we are evaluating now.

Because obviously every player in even remotely similar situations end up with the exact same career path. No need to use real judgment skills or insight of any kind with this guy. It's so much easier to assume he's exactly like the last guy. Homework done! let's go get some pizza.

Sorry if I came across like a jerk just now. It's not usually like me. But this "logic" has more holes in it than a soccer net.

Exactly. Using judgement I know this clown should not be going in the 2nd round. 2 knee surgeries in the last 6 months. Unproven rookie with no time to practice or adjust to the speed of the NFL. On a bad offense with 8 games against top-10 run defenses last year. Give me a proven stud like Marshawn Lynch instead (people laughed at me last year when I said Lynch was better than Ingram too).

So Richardson is a clown and a sccrub because you don't like his ranking on FBG? No bias going on here...

 

[GDogg]

The gamble proved to be a losing one, but we can't say there weren't any warning signals.Contrast with Richardson, who brings crazy measurables

This is my problem with Richardson. The hype is more out of control than with Ingram and almost as baseless. What crazy measureables does he have again? Average spead, average size, good hands? He's a volume player. He will need a lot of touches. He isn't anything like AP--at all. He's a Michael Turner without the speed but who can catch. All these guys who think he is a dynamic, game-breaker are in for a rude awakening.

Average speed and average size? He ran a 4.45 40 at his pro day (#2 at RB only behind Lamar Miller who ran a 4.40) and he's got great size with a BMI of 33.5. Adrian Peterson ran a 4.40 40 at the combine.Richardson's plenty fast for a RB and has excellent size for the position.

 

[sweetness34]

I'm with Banger, Abe, & MAC_32:

<Open-mind>

I agree with many in here about the knocks on TR. Does FBG have him ranked too high? Quite possible. As do many other sites this year. He should not be a top 12 player or even a top 10 RB. HOWEVER, those saying they wouldn’t take him in the 4th round…5th round? Really?

I don't think anyone is saying that. I can see someone gambling on him in the 4th or 5th round, but FBG is pumping him as solid 2nd round pick and has already crowned him to be the next ADP.Meanwhile, if you go to his FBG player page, it is all hype hype hype. His player page and latest news sections have zero mention of his injury. I guess if you buy a subscription for expert analysis you are expected to do your own research elsewhere?

No problem with your opinion. Like some others have said though, in most normal leagues, there’s no way he’s lasting to the 4th or 5th round – whether right or wrong. While some have said he’s the best RB prospect to come out since ADP, I don’t think that necessarily equates to them saying he’ll be as good as ADP is/was.Hype. Interesting word. It’s usually used in a negative context. Let’s look in the mirror for a minute. We’re on a FF msg board. If there was no “hype”, what would we have to discuss, talk about, disagree with?? Doesn’t every player have hype? Seriously? If we talk about Foster or Brady or Rodgers, isn’t it hype just the same? (Again, I’m being half sarcastic, but half serious.)

I go back to my point about bias. If you already like a guy, it’s “good” hype and you buy into it. If you already don’t like a guy, it’s “bad” hype and you complain because there’s too much of it.

Works both ways.

<end rant>

We all have different opinions on players – that’s what makes FF great. We’ll agree on some and disagree on others. All part of the fun.

Great topic GnG. I’m enjoying the discussion so far… (seriously)

 

[zilladog]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

This is pretty much what I think.

How is Richardson the same as DMC? (besides college of course). How is he the same as Brown? Moreno? Richardson's game couldn't be any different from each one of these guys. From his measurables to his body type to his running style.....This is apples to oranges. Why on EARTH would you think that just because they were al highly touted on FBG boards, that they're somehow going to have a similar career to Trent Richardson? Please connect the dots for me cuz I'm just not seeing it.

If you want to warn against over-hyping a prospect, then that's totaly cool. Feel free to do that. However, that's not what your doing. Your calling a very specific player (trent Richardson) a bust simpy because other guys were busts before him. This argument is the equivalent of throwing poop at the wall and hoping it sticks.

 

[sweetness34]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

This is pretty much what I think.

I will say that I can def see where Saber and Griff are coming from, and I don't necessarily disagree with their sentiment. I may not wholly agree with the specifics of their argument in this particular case, but I understand it. I sort of think that "over-hyping" rookies is an industry-wide occurrence, not just specific to FBG. Just my opinion.

 

[GDogg]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

This is pretty much what I think.

How is Richardson the same as DMC? (besides college of course). How is he the same as Brown? Moreno? Richardson's game couldn't be any different from each one of these guys. From his measurables to his body type to his running style.....This is apples to oranges. Why on EARTH would you think that just because they were al highly touted on FBG boards, that they're somehow going to have a similar career to Trent Richardson? Please connect the dots for me cuz I'm just not seeing it.

If you want to warn against over-hyping a prospect, then that's totaly cool. Feel free to do that. However, that's not what your doing. Your calling a very specific player (trent Richardson) a bust simpy because other guys were busts before him. This argument is the equivalent of throwing poop at the wall and hoping it sticks.

Richardson reminds me of Maurice Drew. They both have BMI's above 32, are short, are fast, and have great balance and plus acceleration. They are also both physical runners who keep their legs churning and don't go down on first (or even second) contact. I don't know how Richardson is as a receiver. Maurice Drew was/is very good.

I think Richardson has a little more "wiggle" to him than Drew does/did.

I'm not sure what that does for his production, but that's the type of player I see when I watch him. If Drew had gotten all the touches behind a top 5 OL as a rookie, then I think that's what we could reasonably expect to see from Richardson.

 

[griff321]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

This is pretty much what I think.

How is Richardson the same as DMC? (besides college of course). How is he the same as Brown? Moreno? Richardson's game couldn't be any different from each one of these guys. From his measurables to his body type to his running style.....This is apples to oranges. Why on EARTH would you think that just because they were al highly touted on FBG boards, that they're somehow going to have a similar career to Trent Richardson? Please connect the dots for me cuz I'm just not seeing it.

If you want to warn against over-hyping a prospect, then that's totaly cool. Feel free to do that. However, that's not what your doing. Your calling a very specific player (trent Richardson) a bust simpy because other guys were busts before him. This argument is the equivalent of throwing poop at the wall and hoping it sticks.

I get that point and I agree with the idea that every player is unique.My point is first round rookie hype gets too far out of control every year and owners pay a price that's unworthy of very valid question marks associated with any rookie RB. One very big question mark in my mind is the fact that he will hit the rookie wall when I need him the most. I just don't see him being an exception to that rule, and then what do I do when my second or first round pick is putting up junk in the playoffs?

 

[sweetness34]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

This is pretty much what I think.

How is Richardson the same as DMC? (besides college of course). How is he the same as Brown? Moreno? Richardson's game couldn't be any different from each one of these guys. From his measurables to his body type to his running style.....This is apples to oranges. Why on EARTH would you think that just because they were al highly touted on FBG boards, that they're somehow going to have a similar career to Trent Richardson? Please connect the dots for me cuz I'm just not seeing it.

If you want to warn against over-hyping a prospect, then that's totaly cool. Feel free to do that. However, that's not what your doing. Your calling a very specific player (trent Richardson) a bust simpy because other guys were busts before him. This argument is the equivalent of throwing poop at the wall and hoping it sticks.

I get that point and I agree with the idea that every player is unique.My point is first round rookie hype gets too far out of control every year and owners pay a price that's unworthy of very valid question marks associated with any rookie RB. One very big question mark in my mind is the fact that he will hit the rookie wall when I need him the most. I just don't see him being an exception to that rule, and then what do I do when my second or first round pick is putting up junk in the playoffs?

Well said, Griff. In my mind, a valid point.

 

[Clifford]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

You were pimping Ingram as a buy low last year. Said he was running angry.

And I was wrong. I really thought he would establish himself as the lead back and the Saints would change their ways. I was wrong. But nowhere did I say his talent level and TRich's were the same or even similar. IN fact, in the middle of Ingram's Heisman run I would anger other Bama fans saying he wasn't even the best back on his team. And he wasn't.I always looked at Ingram as more of a big back with some outside speed but not much wiggle or quicks. I did think he would do well, and I was wrong. But I have never put his talent at TRich's level.I still believe if Ingram can overcome injuries he can be an above-average starting back in this league. I do not believe he is special in the way TRich is.ETA in response to above comments, even counting DMC, who I LOVED coming out of college, I have never seen a back possess Richardson's combination of speed, power, vision, toughness, strength, and agility. He literally has it all. Even I in my blind love for DMC recognized he was short on leg drive and really depended on his speed to be productive.

 

[jurb26]

My point is first round rookie hype gets too far out of control every year and owners pay a price that's unworthy of very valid question marks associated with any rookie RB. One very big question mark in my mind is the fact that he will hit the rookie wall when I need him the most. I just don't see him being an exception to that rule, and then what do I do when my second or first round pick is putting up junk in the playoffs?

This is a fair point. I'm of the mind set of, just get to the playoffs and figure it out then though!Oddly enough I factored this into my draft stragey and made sure to get great value RBs in later rounds that are also sure to see touches. In my case that was R. Bush and D. Brown. If you do you're projections and a ceratin guy grades out at RB7, then you don't worry about how those RB7 numbers will be divided up over the year IMO.

 

[zilladog]

If I had to compare him to ay NFL running back, I'd say his game is closest to Steven Jackson. Similar bulky frame and running style. Using power to break tackles while not being a straight up "power back." They both have enough speed and shiftiness to put moves on linebackers, rather than just lowering a shoulder to take a hit (Marion Barber's issue imo). He certainly has alot of MoJo like qualities too.

This doesnt mean for a second that I think he will have the same career as Jackson. Just that he reminds me of him. Ingram reminded me of Emitt Smith, but no ones' putting him in the HOF.

 

[bagger]

who is a better back than trich at 3.03?

bush? he has thomas nipping at his heals and is coming off a career year.

lynch? he has shown very inconsistant career stats and is also coming off a record year with 13 tds which is likely not sustainable.

i just dont see the clear choice over trich. now maybe trich is a huge bust, but to sit here and state there is some obvious choice over him is pretty foolish.

 

[zilladog]

who is a better back than trich at 3.03?bush? he has thomas nipping at his heals and is coming off a career year.lynch? he has shown very inconsistant career stats and is also coming off a record year with 13 tds which is likely not sustainable.i just dont see the clear choice over trich. now maybe trich is a huge bust, but to sit here and state there is some obvious choice over him is pretty foolish.

Martin? Similar situation with less injury risk....Less talent too, but that's neither here nor there.

 

[jurb26]

who is a better back than trich at 3.03?bush? he has thomas nipping at his heals and is coming off a career year.lynch? he has shown very inconsistant career stats and is also coming off a record year with 13 tds which is likely not sustainable.i just dont see the clear choice over trich. now maybe trich is a huge bust, but to sit here and state there is some obvious choice over him is pretty foolish.

Martin? Similar situation with less injury risk....Less talent too, but that's neither here nor there.

How is it a similar situation when he has a proven RB who is looking like he will steal a lot of touches? I'm a Martin owner in dynasty and really want to believe that he will be a featured RB this year but it just doesn't look like it will be so. Martin has less talent and less opportunity IMO.On top of that, why do people think there is all this injury risk with Richardson? The second knee scope was a regular procedure that should have little to no effect on him. It seems like people are just scared because they want to see him play in the preseason and that isn't going to happen. Really, it changes practically nothing.

 

[bagger]

who is a better back than trich at 3.03?bush? he has thomas nipping at his heals and is coming off a career year.lynch? he has shown very inconsistant career stats and is also coming off a record year with 13 tds which is likely not sustainable.i just dont see the clear choice over trich. now maybe trich is a huge bust, but to sit here and state there is some obvious choice over him is pretty foolish.

Martin? Similar situation with less injury risk....Less talent too, but that's neither here nor there.

less injury risk to date but has a 1k yard rusher sharing that backfield with blount and martin is also a rookie.maybe it comes down to what risk you are ale to tolerate and what you are not.to me cleaning out a knee and all reports saying he will be good to go week 1 is some risk, but tolerable.however, i am starting kevin smith over richardson week 1 as smith is going against the rams and wont share the backfield until week 3.if smith can hold it down until richardson gives me top 10 rb ppg numbers, thats all i want.i dont care about a players total points, i want players who give me top notch ppg when i start them. so i richardson plays like a top 10 back for the last 2/3 of the season while he is getting up to speed in the first third, i can live with that since i drafted other rbs who can fill that hole. to me that is much better than a healthy rb who just may always split carries the whole season but give you less production on a ppg basis than someone who played less games but gave you more ppg but their totals are the same at the end of the year.see: fred davis 2011

 

[ponchsox]

A rookie RB on an offense that won't score many TDs? I'm not touching this guy.

Yes, b/c they're rolling out the exact same guys on offense as they had last year. This guy knows things.

Weeden, Little, etc look like offensive juggerauts

Those who drink the cool aid and draft this guy as a RB2 will be saying to yourselves three months later "what the F was I thinking?"

 

[zilladog]

who is a better back than trich at 3.03?bush? he has thomas nipping at his heals and is coming off a career year.lynch? he has shown very inconsistant career stats and is also coming off a record year with 13 tds which is likely not sustainable.i just dont see the clear choice over trich. now maybe trich is a huge bust, but to sit here and state there is some obvious choice over him is pretty foolish.

Martin? Similar situation with less injury risk....Less talent too, but that's neither here nor there.

How is it a similar situation when he has a proven RB who is looking like he will steal a lot of touches? I'm a Martin owner in dynasty and really want to believe that he will be a featured RB this year but it just doesn't look like it will be so. Martin has less talent and less opportunity IMO.On top of that, why do people think there is all this injury risk with Richardson? The second knee scope was a regular procedure that should have little to no effect on him. It seems like people are just scared because they want to see him play in the preseason and that isn't going to happen. Really, it changes practically nothing.

First, I agree on your assessment of Martin. But at 3.03, if your going to pass on TRich, he may be your best bet for a potential stud RB. Imo, the path to 3 down back for him is clearer than it looks right now. No love for Blount.On your second point, I got nothing. Couldn't have said it better. Having 2 surgeries in 6 months is definitely a concern, anyone who says it isn't is fooling themselves. However, It seems like with these types of surgeries, players get the problem fixed and end up playing better and healthier as a result. Surgeries like this are meant to strengthen, not weaken. People forget that. If Doc Andrews cleaned up the knee completely and there truly are no more bone splinters (or whatever he had), than this situation will be smooth sailing sooner rather than later. Even if he starts the year a little slow.

 

[G5781]

A rookie RB on an offense that won't score many TDs? I'm not touching this guy.

Yes, b/c they're rolling out the exact same guys on offense as they had last year. This guy knows things.

Weeden, Little, etc look like offensive juggerauts

Those who drink the cool aid and draft this guy as a RB2 will be saying to yourselves three months later "what the F was I thinking?"

Who were the QB/WR's for Jax last year? How about for Cleveland in 2010? If you're talented and can play, it doesnt matter who's around you. Ask Steven Jackson and MJD.Bottom line on Richardson is that he will be the workhorse on a team with a pretty solid OL. And he can catch the ball too. There are so few of those these days.

If he gets 275-300 touches, do you really think he wont produce RB2 numbers? Assuming he plays 14-16 games, to me his floor is what Sjax has put up the last few years. Maybe a little less yardage and average TD numbers. Thats his floor IMO. Now if he plays anywhere close to what the scouts and talent evaluators think he is, then you have an absolute stud. Thats why I will have no issue drafting him in the tail end of round 2. Because in my projections, hes at worst Steven Jackson but with the potential to be much more.

 

[RBM]

Who are you seeing as the Cleveland answer to Darren Sproles? You know, the guy who's going to keep Richardson from getting a feature back workload?

You think Sproles is all that kept Ingram from a feature back role?

No but things may have been different if he was ever able to get into a rhythm.

 

[Sabertooth]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

This is pretty much what I think.

These are all very poor examples though. the only one remotely close would be McFadden, who was very good in his rookie year but injured.

Maybe, maybe not. No two players are truly alike. McFadden was a top pick just like Richardson. Then again, so were Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson. The point is, nobody is a sure bet. And betting on a currently injured rookie is not necessarily better than taking a replacement player like Jimmy Graham, Brandon Marshall, or Cam Newton.

 

[jurb26]

Maybe, maybe not. No two players are truly alike. McFadden was a top pick just like Richardson. Then again, so were Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson. The point is, nobody is a sure bet. And betting on a currently injured rookie is not necessarily better than taking a replacement player like Jimmy Graham, Brandon Marshall, or Cam Newton.

I can't agrue this. I suppose it comes down to your tolerance for risk and how much risk you assign to Richardson. I don't think there is nearly as much risk as you. Even if I did, I'd still be willing to take him as my RB2 knowing I could land a guy like D. Brown later on to hedge that bet.

 

[sweetness34]

Maybe, maybe not. No two players are truly alike. McFadden was a top pick just like Richardson. Then again, so were Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson. The point is, nobody is a sure bet. And betting on a currently injured rookie is not necessarily better than taking a replacement player like Jimmy Graham, Brandon Marshall, or Cam Newton.

I can't agrue this. I suppose it comes down to your tolerance for risk and how much risk you assign to Richardson. I don't think there is nearly as much risk as you. Even if I did, I'd still be willing to take him as my RB2 knowing I could land a guy like D. Brown later on to hedge that bet.

Agree with all points here, Saber. I'm not saying you said this, but the same can be said of MJD, DMC, or Mathews - re: sure bet. And they're all taken higher/much higher than TRich. It is all about risk management/risk tolerance.

 

[Sabertooth]

Maybe, maybe not. No two players are truly alike. McFadden was a top pick just like Richardson. Then again, so were Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson. The point is, nobody is a sure bet. And betting on a currently injured rookie is not necessarily better than taking a replacement player like Jimmy Graham, Brandon Marshall, or Cam Newton.

I can't agrue this. I suppose it comes down to your tolerance for risk and how much risk you assign to Richardson. I don't think there is nearly as much risk as you. Even if I did, I'd still be willing to take him as my RB2 knowing I could land a guy like D. Brown later on to hedge that bet.

I guess so. I probably won't end up with him. And part of the reason for my bias is being so badly burned by Ingram last season, I won't lie. No thanks to spending starter-level redraft picks on rookies for me. Now, obviously in a dynasty he's a top pick.

 

[menobrown]

I'm a Richardson backer but even I would cringe at the ADP comparisons. For my eye, he doesn't resemble ADP at all.

I'd agree he does not resemble ADP at all. As a pure runner ADP remains the best rookie prospect since Bo Jackson. DMAC was highly talented but there some concerns over his frame whereas guys like ADP really had no concerns.That being said as it relates to fantasy I think Richardson has the "potential" to be better than ADP in PPR leagues. He's a more advanced pass blocker and receiver than ADP was coming into the league. ADP has only hit 20+ fantasy points per game once in his career and that happened to be the one year he broke the 40 catch barrier. ADP is the best runner in the NFL but over the past two season Arian Foster has bettered ADP's fantasy production by around 25% per game,largely because he catches passes.Rice and McCoy have both averaged over 20 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons and neither of them is as good of a runner as ADP.Point being as it relates to fantasy while Richardson and for that matter arguably no one in today's NFL is as good of a runner as a young healthy ADP for fantasy purposes, especially PPR leagues, it's the involvement in the passing game that can dictate a players value more so than talent. I don't know how Trent is going to fare as a receiver or be anything comparable to Foster, Rice and McCoy but I feel confident he's going to fare better in that regard than Peterson has done.

 

[BWill]

What is FBG's answer to last year's Mark Ingram debacle? They double down on yet another unproven rookie, who just happens to be injured this time and is questionable to even be ready for the start of the regular season. We have seen how holdouts have impacted already proven studs like Chris Johnson, who are healthy yet unable to get into game shape for the regular season. How do they think some unproven rookie who is injured and missing the entire preseason is going to be ready to put up RB1 numbers? Hint: They are insane. Last year they insisted on drafting Mark Ingram in the 2nd round, now they are stating the same thing for Trent Richardson even more vocally. Do not fall for it. FBG is developing quite the history of completely overrating every single college player. Consider this your wake-up call FBG, put your focus back on the NFL. You aren't in college anymore. PROTIP: Avoid this scrub.

TR isnt Ingram....Put your hater-pipe down

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The question comes down to what any person thinks of Richardson. While he may not be an Adrian Peterson, for my money he is the most talented RB to come into the league out of college since Peterson. Whether that's right or wrong is up for debate, but there is no way anyone can sit here and say that they know for a fact that Richardson will be a bust this year (or a stud for that matter).

Personally, I don't think there is any comparison between Ingram and Richardson. It doesn't matter what their stats were in college, it doesn't matter if one backed up the other (recall Tom Brady backed up Brian Griese at Michigan). What matters is how their college abilities will translate to the NFL and even that is difficult to figure out. I just think Richardson has far superior talent than Ingram does. I have no doubt whatsoever that Richardson is going to be a stud (again, just my opinion) and I think he has a great chance to be a RB1 this year (as of this post he is 12th in my RB rankings). I would have no reservations at all drafting him in the 2nd round, but that's just me. I know many think it is risky, but that doesn't mean everyone does. This same thing happened when Peterson came into the league and any of us that drafted him in the 2nd round got crucified for reaching for a rookie with an injury history. I think everyone knows how that turned out. To be fair, I will add that there are other players that get a lot of hype like this and are drafted early and bust. That happens too. But in either case, if you really believe the player in question is worth drafting early, then by all means you have to try to draft him. I know if I want a player bad enough, I won't hesitate to reach a little bit if I have a firm belief about the player.

 

[Sabertooth]

Arian Foster seems every bit the player Adrian Peterson is. People act like scouting is an exact science, but it simply isn't. If Richardson was as good as Foster is right now, I'd be surprised (as I would with any rookie playing at that level).

 

[LHUCKS]

but there is no way anyone can sit here and say that they know for a fact that Richardson will be a bust this year (or a stud for that matter).

Of course not, we're essentially handicappers not forturne tellers.The odds are stacked against Richardson for all the reasons stated in this thread.OVERVALUED

 

[jurb26]

but there is no way anyone can sit here and say that they know for a fact that Richardson will be a bust this year (or a stud for that matter).

Of course not, we're essentially handicappers not forturne tellers.The odds are stacked against Richardson for all the reasons stated in this thread.OVERVALUED

I'd say it's pretty clearly the opposite. The odds are in his favor for one major reason, opportunity. Even most of the Richardson haters are willing to acknowledge that he will get that. The only real reason we seem to have on the table against is that past rookies have been overvalued and thus he must be too.

 

[GDogg]

but there is no way anyone can sit here and say that they know for a fact that Richardson will be a bust this year (or a stud for that matter).

Of course not, we're essentially handicappers not forturne tellers.The odds are stacked against Richardson for all the reasons stated in this thread.OVERVALUED

I'd say it's pretty clearly the opposite. The odds are in his favor for one major reason, opportunity. Even most of the Richardson haters are willing to acknowledge that he will get that. The only real reason we seem to have on the table against is that past rookies have been overvalued and thus he must be too.

Well, I'd say the fact that he's not even practicing yet after having surgery on his knee (albeit minor) is a negative.Still, I don't think that's a huge issue and it's not playing much of a factor in where I have him ranked.

 

[joffer]

but there is no way anyone can sit here and say that they know for a fact that Richardson will be a bust this year (or a stud for that matter).

Of course not, we're essentially handicappers not forturne tellers.The odds are stacked against Richardson for all the reasons stated in this thread.OVERVALUED

i really didn't have much of an opinion on him before now. after reading the thread, i think more of him than i did before.anyone who watched Alabama that year could see Richardson was the better back.

 

[LHUCKS]

but there is no way anyone can sit here and say that they know for a fact that Richardson will be a bust this year (or a stud for that matter).

Of course not, we're essentially handicappers not forturne tellers.The odds are stacked against Richardson for all the reasons stated in this thread.OVERVALUED

I'd say it's pretty clearly the opposite. The odds are in his favor for one major reason, opportunity. Even most of the Richardson haters are willing to acknowledge that he will get that. The only real reason we seem to have on the table against is that past rookies have been overvalued and thus he must be too.

Durability and effectiveness are always a concern with rookie backs...add in the fact that the cleveland offense has sucked.I'll pass on his curent ADP when there are several other players at that draft position with better risk/reward profiles.I feel like this is the same conversation I have every year about rookie RBs. Last year it was Ingram.The first three rounds should be about avoiding busts, not finding them.

 

[GreenNGold]

The first three rounds should be about avoiding busts, not finding them.

Great quote! Very fitting for exactly this type of pick as well. I will need to remember that!

 

[Eminence]

Good enough to not have a Top 3 pick. Smart enough not to take him so high in redraft.

No opinion, won't own this year.

 

[TheFanatic]

The browns have a great offensive line. If TRich doesn't tear it up (the field, not his knee) then Hardesty will no matter the QB or WRs. The line makes these players great. They have a great line. As long as the RBs with the skills are healthy, Cleveland will produce nice numbers at RB.

But will that be TRich? Dunno. I have Hardesty in a dynasty league and am asking a lot more for him to the TR owner than I would a typical backup RB. I'm. Also content to keep him should the guy not take my offer.

Its about the line, not the QB. Do you remember the QB of the Ravens when Jamal Lewis went for 2k? Or when priest Holmes set the TD record. Who was the leading WR for JAX last year when MJD led the league in rushing? Or when CJ ran for 2k? Who was ADPs QB his rookie season?

Wheeden is not a sexy pick at QB. So what? Don't draft the WRs. Pretty sure a guy like me, almost 40 with no QB play in my life could learn the intricacies of the hand off in a practice or two.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The first three rounds should be about avoiding busts, not finding them.

That's true...but not everyone thinks Richardson will be a bust.

 

[LHUCKS]

The first three rounds should be about avoiding busts, not finding them.

Great quote! Very fitting for exactly this type of pick as well. I will need to remember that!

 

[bagger]

the projections from the trich haters are conspicuously lacking.

i want to know what you all think he will do that does not warrant his adp.

i will say if you are drafting him as your rb1 that is very risky.

but for someone like myself who drafted ray rice, i can get aggressive with my rb2 for upside.

same reason i took miles austin as my wr3. already had aj green and percy harvin so i can swing for the fences in the fifth round with austin.

the generalizations in here are a bit telling of a lack of meta strategy when it comes to drafting.

 

[jurb26]

the projections from the trich haters are conspicuously lacking.i want to know what you all think he will do that does not warrant his adp.i will say if you are drafting him as your rb1 that is very risky.but for someone like myself who drafted ray rice, i can get aggressive with my rb2 for upside. same reason i took miles austin as my wr3. already had aj green and percy harvin so i can swing for the fences in the fifth round with austin.the generalizations in here are a bit telling of a lack of meta strategy when it comes to drafting.

I'm with you. I'm still waiting for any of the Richardson haters to provide a projection for touches. I'd be satisfied just knowing that. I too took Richardson as a RB2 nad paired him with C. Johnson. My other RBs are R. Bush and D. Brown. My dependency on Richardson is going to be very small. If he is what I think he is though I'll be set.

 

[Freedonia]

For my thoughts on TRich this season the only person I have tried to compare him to is P. Hillis. Excluding RB I do not think you can say with too much confidence that the 2012 Browns are worse than the 2010 Browns. I think that Bal and Pit defense (25% of Cleveland's scheduel) should be a least a little worse based on that fact that they are two years older and still have a lot of the same players. I do believe that Richardson is a better player than Hillis although I think Hillis is pretty good. Hillis was able to produce the third most points for a RB in 2010 on 270 total carries or about 17 carries per game, and 61 rec. If you knocked say 30 rec and half of his rec yards off of that total for Richardson that would have made him the7th or 8th RB last season which seems like a reasonable est. though not without risk. That being said I am a little scared by the knee injury itself and any conditioning related injuries that may occur from the layoff. Early to mid third round pick seems right to me based on risk/reward, but based on the upside and the depth at WR and QB this year if some said they were going to gamble a mid second after about the top 10 or 11 Rb's were off the board I could not call them wrong.

 

[Diamond]

The browns have a great offensive line.

In 2010, I would've called Cleveland's run blocking line great, or at the least very good and improving. In 2011, I thought they fell off. Do you blame the RBs?Here are the team rushing stats from the last two years:

Year Att Yds TDs Avg 1st Downs2010 413 1646 13 4.0 872011 415 1531 4 3.7 77The obvious glaring discrepancy is the TDs, which do tend to vary, but the average fell, too.Here's the projected 2012 Cleveland offensive line (from Ourlads)

LT Thomas, Joe 07/1LG Pinkston, Jason 11/5C Mack, Alex 09/1RG Lauvao, Shawn 10/3RT Schwartz, Mitchell 12/2Are these your projected starters?No argument from me that Thomas and Mack are great, Pro Bowl caliber players. It's the rest of the line that I question and admittedly, that's mainly due to unfamiliarity.

Was Pinkston the fill in for Steinbach last year? I really thought losing Steinbach to injury last preseason had an impact here, but he's in Miami sitting behind Richie Incognito right now, so perhaps I overrate him. Has Pinkston improved as a run blocker?

How long has Lauvao started at RG?

How's the rookie RT looked in camp? Better run blocker or pass blocker?

Any info you can provide would be great, thanks.

Do you remember the QB of the Ravens when Jamal Lewis went for 2k? Or when priest Holmes set the TD record. Who was the leading WR for JAX last year when MJD led the league in rushing? Or when CJ ran for 2k? Who was ADPs QB his rookie season?

1) Kyle Boller QB BAL 20032) Trent Green QB KC 2003

3) Mike Thomas WR JAX 2011

4) Kenny Britt WR TEN 2009

5) Tarvaris Jackson QB MIN 2007

Point taken.