Put the Trent Richardson pipe down! (1 Viewer)

[rascal]

What concerns me just as much as being an unproven rookie is being an unproven rookie who hasn't played any preseason games and is recovering from a knee surgery. Won't touch him before the third in a 10 team league (non-ppr).

 

[Sabertooth]

I can certainly understand your points but I disagree with many of them. That isnt to say that Richardson will be a star or won't be, but....

1. Richardson and Ingram are different players. Im not sure how last years trumpeting of Ingram applies to Richardson unless it is a point about the staffs ability to rate rookies. If so id point out that we were also down on cam newton iirc but were high on mike Williams, Clinton Portis, randy mcmichael, Aaron Hernandez, on and on. We miss on some. We get a lot right. Not sure how missing on one player at a position one year sets an absolute precedent for a completely different player in another year.

2. Cleveland and new Orleans are different teams. We ignored a lot of signs about Ingram (as someone else mentioned above). The ONLY sign out of Cleveland that could be a bad thing is that hardesty is playing well in practice and preseason. So I suppose he could take some carries from Richardson. But otherwise the team traded up to take him 3rd, has a solid line, has been talking about running a ton, and has a fairly recent history of having great fantasy production from the backfield.

3. I'm sorry Ingram didn't work out for you last year, But his production was far from awful. He was banged up a lot and wasn't used as much as was expected. But if you take what he actually did on the field there is ample reason to think that our "miss" was in evaluating his situation, not his talent.

Skipping on Richardson at his current adp isn't likely to lose you your league. But selecting him in round 4 and getting top 10 production is exactly the kind of thing that can win you your league.

Should be fun to see it play out.

I think his point is that the FBG staff tends to overrate rookies, and not just a little bit. I think this is a function of footballguys coming up during the Edge, Fred Taylor, Curtis Martin era of rookie production. Truth is, rookie RBs haven't put up those type of numbers lately. And in the scramble to "discover" the next great thing, they put forth what amounts to hyperbole and unobtainable hype. Instead of doing the actual work that made you the best resource, you are forming opinions and rationalizing them. I've noticed it for a couple years now and I've been on this site since it was Mr. Football and the yellow boards. You've got great tools here, and your infrastructure is unparalleled, but your analysis and hype isn't as good any more.

That may be a fair criticism. It may be that we publish so much content that we end up having a pro and con position on most every player. Appreciate your thoughts.

True. But you really seem to latch on to certain players. I think Waldman predicted 15 touchdowns for Brandon Lloyd this year. He just keep doubling down on him despite him being the third or fourth target in that offense. It comes across as defensive almost. We all do it.

 

[Kree]

Talent doesn't always rise to the top. We see it all the time. Blount has more rushing yards than anyone else in his draft class to date. That includes the talented first round pick Ryan Mathews. Was Blount even drafted? I know he was on Tennessee for a while. Jonathan Stewart is a top 10 pick. Reggie Bush is another. These guys have been mediocre fantasy players. Not saying Richardson won't be a good or even a great player, but setting the bar at Adrian Peterson is folly. You are paying full price for upside. And that's a dicey proposition.

Blount was undrafted for reasons obvious other than his talent. Was being touted in the mid rounds before 'that' punch. Stewart in his rookie reason put up 800 yards and 10 TDs with a health yards per and no games started. The talent was there to put up the numbers, but not the situation. He followed it up with 1250 total yards and 11 TDs, again with a very good yards per.Reggie Bush had a rookie season with 1300 total yards and 8 TDs. His only full year. Might have been wrong on the pure talent front but the situation was there to put up decent numbers in a role and he took it.Richardson as far as I can tell is on the cusp of both - Definitely has the talent, and 'looks' to be in the right situation. Sometimes upside is worth paying for. As I said, if you can get him as a RB2/3 in the 3rd/4th rounds, there's plenty of reasons to be comfortable in his output, even if he doesn't live up to his apparent talent.

 

[matttyl]

I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

Wow, that first statement is very bold, but when you combine it with the second part it's pretty extreme! You're suggesting that T Rich will pretty much do what Matt Forte did last year (in reverse though, missing games at the start rather than at the end), but also that Fred Jackson will actually do better than that?

 

[ldizzle]

I definitely bit on Ingram in a couple leagues last year. But I went in with my eyes open. We were given warning signs, and were given the opportunity to ignore them at our peril (which, again, I did)......that Payton didn't typically use anything resembling a single feature back......that Payton was saying he was going to continue to use all the tools in his belt......that Ingram didn't exactly possess all-world measurables......that there were obvious choices on the Saints' roster who might limit his opportunity to gather receptions......that there were obvious choices on the Saints' roster who might limit his opportunity in the redzone.And we had to balance that against the hopes that......the Saints would feature him, since they spent such a high pick on him......and that we were so impressed by what we'd seen of him in college that it was easy to imagine him succeeding.The gamble proved to be a losing one, but we can't say there weren't any warning signals.Contrast with Richardson, who brings crazy measurables, and is the only game in town in virtually every facet of the Cleveland running game. In terms of who and what are on the roster, there is NOTHING in Richardson's way that is even remotely similar to the potential obstacles Ingram faced. And there are no similar questions about his physical skills.Yes, there are some questions about the opportunities his limited team-talent will offer. But at least he has a couple bona fide hogs to run behind on the left side. And yes, there are some questions about his heath. Though we're assured at this point his health should be fine as the season begins.I'm not sure where FBG is projecting him, but I don't think there are nearly enough similarities to be suggesting that we ought to have learned our lesson with Ingram. In Ingram, we saw a guy we hoped might prove to be the most valuable cog in a very competitive machine. In Richardson, we see a guy with the chance to be one of the small handful of most heavily-featured backs in the league.Sure, maybe there are enough red flags to discount him below other guys in that same boat, but I don't see enough of them to drop him down into the 4th round or anything.

This pretty much sums it up for me. They are completely different situationsRichardson pros:Workhorse with no competition.Same variables as ingram last year:Injury historyGreat athletic ability1st rd pickCons:Not many td opps, because of offenseI think the difference between ingram last year and richardson this year is that the pros outweigh the cons. I probably wont take him because i dont trust rookie rbs

 

[howo5]

I can see and argument for SJax or FJax over TRich, but at some point when you're debating between BJGE and Gore or TRich, you have to draw the line somewhere.

Those saying 4th or 5th round are just exaggerating, 99% of leagues he'll be gone in the 3rd at some point.

 

[Abraham]

I can certainly understand your points but I disagree with many of them. That isnt to say that Richardson will be a star or won't be, but....

1. Richardson and Ingram are different players. Im not sure how last years trumpeting of Ingram applies to Richardson unless it is a point about the staffs ability to rate rookies. If so id point out that we were also down on cam newton iirc but were high on mike Williams, Clinton Portis, randy mcmichael, Aaron Hernandez, on and on. We miss on some. We get a lot right. Not sure how missing on one player at a position one year sets an absolute precedent for a completely different player in another year.

2. Cleveland and new Orleans are different teams. We ignored a lot of signs about Ingram (as someone else mentioned above). The ONLY sign out of Cleveland that could be a bad thing is that hardesty is playing well in practice and preseason. So I suppose he could take some carries from Richardson. But otherwise the team traded up to take him 3rd, has a solid line, has been talking about running a ton, and has a fairly recent history of having great fantasy production from the backfield.

3. I'm sorry Ingram didn't work out for you last year, But his production was far from awful. He was banged up a lot and wasn't used as much as was expected. But if you take what he actually did on the field there is ample reason to think that our "miss" was in evaluating his situation, not his talent.

Skipping on Richardson at his current adp isn't likely to lose you your league. But selecting him in round 4 and getting top 10 production is exactly the kind of thing that can win you your league.

Should be fun to see it play out.

I think his point is that the FBG staff tends to overrate rookies, and not just a little bit. I think this is a function of footballguys coming up during the Edge, Fred Taylor, Curtis Martin era of rookie production. Truth is, rookie RBs haven't put up those type of numbers lately. And in the scramble to "discover" the next great thing, they put forth what amounts to hyperbole and unobtainable hype. Instead of doing the actual work that made you the best resource, you are forming opinions and rationalizing them. I've noticed it for a couple years now and I've been on this site since it was Mr. Football and the yellow boards. You've got great tools here, and your infrastructure is unparalleled, but your analysis and hype isn't as good any more.

That may be a fair criticism. It may be that we publish so much content that we end up having a pro and con position on most every player. Appreciate your thoughts.

True. But you really seem to latch on to certain players. I think Waldman predicted 15 touchdowns for Brandon Lloyd this year. He just keep doubling down on him despite him being the third or fourth target in that offense. It comes across as defensive almost. We all do it.

How do you know Matt is wrong? Isn't that what the season is for?

 

[Rick James]

I can certainly understand your points but I disagree with many of them. That isnt to say that Richardson will be a star or won't be, but....

1. Richardson and Ingram are different players. Im not sure how last years trumpeting of Ingram applies to Richardson unless it is a point about the staffs ability to rate rookies. If so id point out that we were also down on cam newton iirc but were high on mike Williams, Clinton Portis, randy mcmichael, Aaron Hernandez, on and on. We miss on some. We get a lot right. Not sure how missing on one player at a position one year sets an absolute precedent for a completely different player in another year.

2. Cleveland and new Orleans are different teams. We ignored a lot of signs about Ingram (as someone else mentioned above). The ONLY sign out of Cleveland that could be a bad thing is that hardesty is playing well in practice and preseason. So I suppose he could take some carries from Richardson. But otherwise the team traded up to take him 3rd, has a solid line, has been talking about running a ton, and has a fairly recent history of having great fantasy production from the backfield.

3. I'm sorry Ingram didn't work out for you last year, But his production was far from awful. He was banged up a lot and wasn't used as much as was expected. But if you take what he actually did on the field there is ample reason to think that our "miss" was in evaluating his situation, not his talent.

Skipping on Richardson at his current adp isn't likely to lose you your league. But selecting him in round 4 and getting top 10 production is exactly the kind of thing that can win you your league.

Should be fun to see it play out.

I think his point is that the FBG staff tends to overrate rookies, and not just a little bit. I think this is a function of footballguys coming up during the Edge, Fred Taylor, Curtis Martin era of rookie production. Truth is, rookie RBs haven't put up those type of numbers lately. And in the scramble to "discover" the next great thing, they put forth what amounts to hyperbole and unobtainable hype. Instead of doing the actual work that made you the best resource, you are forming opinions and rationalizing them. I've noticed it for a couple years now and I've been on this site since it was Mr. Football and the yellow boards. You've got great tools here, and your infrastructure is unparalleled, but your analysis and hype isn't as good any more.

Define lately...Chris Johnson 2008 - 1,228/9 + 43/260/1

Matt Forte 2008 - 1238/8 + 63/477/4

Steve Slaton 2008 - 1,282/9 + 50/377/1

LeGarrette Blount 2010 - 1,007/6

Demarco Murray 2011 - 897/2 in 7 games started

 

[TheFanatic]

How is TRich on pass protection? He's missed all of training camp and that is usually the one thing they have to work the most on besides the terminology. He's getting the terminology just by being there but he's not learning to pass block. So was he good at that in college?

 

[wadegarrett]

A rookie RB on an offense that won't score many TDs? I'm not touching this guy.

Yes, b/c they're rolling out the exact same guys on offense as they had last year. This guy knows things.

How many touchdowns are you predicting for Cleveland?

More than last year.

That is a cop out. Truth is you have no idea and you are just in here to stir the pot. Which is fine, but don't expect to be taken seriously.

And you do?

 

[sho nuff]

Who are you seeing as the Cleveland answer to Darren Sproles? You know, the guy who's going to keep Richardson from getting a feature back workload?

You think Sproles is all that kept Ingram from a feature back role?

Not much of a reader?

Sure I am...you asked who was going to keep Richardson from getting a feature back role while inferring that is what Sproles did to Ingram.I asked a question to clarify...you instead go for the attempt to insult rather than answering a simple question.

 

[sweetness34]

I’m not expecting TRich to be close to ADP or CJ in their rookie year, but I’m also not expecting him to be Ingram either.

Ok, CJ rookie season - 1,600 yards and 10 total TDs

ADP rookie season - 1,600 yards and 13 total TDs

Ingram rookie season - 500 yards and 5 total TDs

average - 1,233 total yards and 9 total TDs - pretty close to what Reggie Bush did last year. 3rd round seems to be about where you start considering him.

I'd say those numbers look about right. Realistic, but not too optimistic. (BTW, Reggie finished as the #8 RB in my league last year...)

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Hey, I know more than most. I was villified last year for suggesting people sell on Adrian Peterson before the season happened. Jokes on me I guess.

I don't have a strong opinion on Richardson (I think he'll be a top 15 RB, but I understand there's downside risk), but this is nonsense. Peterson scored 13 TDs in 12 games last year (and he missed parts of 3 of those games), so I don't really see any reason to pat yourself on that back about that prediction, unless you're able to use your magic injury-predicting crystal ball again this season.

 

[MAC_32]

How is TRich on pass protection? He's missed all of training camp and that is usually the one thing they have to work the most on besides the terminology. He's getting the terminology just by being there but he's not learning to pass block. So was he good at that in college?

Advanced, unlike most rookies he should be an asset in both aspects of the passing game as he was utilized in that manner in college.

 

[bagger]

RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD2 Peyton Hillis CLE 24 3 270 1177 11 61 477 2 244 106considering this offense had the #2 RB in fantasy 2 years ago, i don't think it is unheard of for Richardson to put up some real good #s. Compare that with the Saints offense who you knew was pass first, had 2 other viable fantasy RBs, there is a reason why i avoided ingram last year but grabbed Richardson this year.

Richardson couldn't even stay on the field for what, a week?

a sore knee that they're cleaning out. very minor. better now than in october.we're going to need better "analysis" than this.

There isn't anything else to analyze. He hasn't done anything. He's done less than Vick Ballard or Robert Turbin at this point.

other than his college career of course.so based on how he has done nothing, he is undraftable?

#### college. There are a million examples of great college players who failed to live up to the hype in the pros. Look no further than Mark Ingram...you know the kid who started OVER Trent Richardson in college.

well you certainly have figured this all out.

 

[Zeff]

Who are you seeing as the Cleveland answer to Darren Sproles? You know, the guy who's going to keep Richardson from getting a feature back workload?

You think Sproles is all that kept Ingram from a feature back role?

Not much of a reader?

Sure I am...you asked who was going to keep Richardson from getting a feature back role while inferring that is what Sproles did to Ingram.I asked a question to clarify...you instead go for the attempt to insult rather than answering a simple question.

You chose to be snarky instead of reading the literal laundry list of reasons given not a handful of posts later.You didn't ask for a clarification. You didn't make a counterpoint. Your post presumed to question "what I think," instead of expanding upon it for the sake of the clarity you claim you wanted to bring to the discussion.Your post, in short, was intended to insult, and the insult was not only pointless, but made you look foolish, since I had already addressed the supposed "point" with great clarity.You got called on it. Don't care for the result? Don't jump to try to look superior without looking where you're jumping.

 

[werdnoynek]

don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!

 

[Bigboy10182000]

They have his numbers as:

1032-7

What's so wrong with that?

 

[urbanhack]

A rookie RB on an offense that won't score many TDs? I'm not touching this guy.

Yes, b/c they're rolling out the exact same guys on offense as they had last year. This guy knows things.

How many touchdowns are you predicting for Cleveland?

More than last year.

Which is fine, but don't expect to be taken seriously.

Hey, I know more than most.

Oh...okay.

 

[pantherclub]

What concerns me just as much as being an unproven rookie is being an unproven rookie who hasn't played any preseason games and is recovering from a knee surgery. Won't touch him before the third in a 10 team league (non-ppr).

Also playing with a rookie qb on a perpetually bad team. Also seems to be nicked up every year.Stay the eff away from this nightmare.

 

[sho nuff]

Who are you seeing as the Cleveland answer to Darren Sproles? You know, the guy who's going to keep Richardson from getting a feature back workload?

You think Sproles is all that kept Ingram from a feature back role?

Not much of a reader?

Sure I am...you asked who was going to keep Richardson from getting a feature back role while inferring that is what Sproles did to Ingram.I asked a question to clarify...you instead go for the attempt to insult rather than answering a simple question.

You chose to be snarky instead of reading the literal laundry list of reasons given not a handful of posts later.You didn't ask for a clarification. You didn't make a counterpoint. Your post presumed to question "what I think," instead of expanding upon it for the sake of the clarity you claim you wanted to bring to the discussion.Your post, in short, was intended to insult, and the insult was not only pointless, but made you look foolish, since I had already addressed the supposed "point" with great clarity.You got called on it. Don't care for the result? Don't jump to try to look superior without looking where you're jumping.

I asked a question to clarify. I had not yet scrolled to the rest.Not my fault that you made a statement and needed another lengthy post to bring up even more points.There was no insult (glad you think you now know my intentions and thoughts too).But keep trying I guess...only one trying to look superior here is you.

 

[pantherclub]

They have his numbers as:1032-7What's so wrong with that?

He was going in the late first, now he seems late 2nd. Those numbers dont really match up then.

 

[sweetness34]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

(Didn’t mean to, but somehow I’ve turned into a TRich apologist in this thread…)The bolded is the truth this year. Any one of us could make compelling arguments against CJ and DMC and every other RB taken in the first two rounds. I’d absolutely take those guys over TRich, don’t get me wrong. But the “I won’t take rookie RBs” argument seems particularly weak.

 

[Sabertooth]

I can see and argument for SJax or FJax over TRich, but at some point when you're debating between BJGE and Gore or TRich, you have to draw the line somewhere.Those saying 4th or 5th round are just exaggerating, 99% of leagues he'll be gone in the 3rd at some point.

Very Good posting. No way I take Richardson over Marshawn Lynch or MJD.

 

[matttyl]

I’m not expecting TRich to be close to ADP or CJ in their rookie year, but I’m also not expecting him to be Ingram either.

Ok, CJ rookie season - 1,600 yards and 10 total TDs

ADP rookie season - 1,600 yards and 13 total TDs

Ingram rookie season - 500 yards and 5 total TDs

average - 1,233 total yards and 9 total TDs - pretty close to what Reggie Bush did last year. 3rd round seems to be about where you start considering him.

I'd say those numbers look about right. Realistic, but not too optimistic. (BTW, Reggie finished as the #8 RB in my league last year...)

He finished 8th in my league as well, tied exactly with F Jax and Peterson. The difference was that Bush did that over 15 games while F Jax did it over 10 and Peterson 12. Bush was only that good because he was "healthy" all season, and wouldn't have finished that high if guys like F Jax, Peterson, Forte, Mathews, S Jax, and even Bradshaw were as well.So comparing a "healthy" season for Bush against a season for T Rich where he's already starting it "not-healthy" might be a bit optimistic.

 

[Sabertooth]

I can certainly understand your points but I disagree with many of them. That isnt to say that Richardson will be a star or won't be, but....

1. Richardson and Ingram are different players. Im not sure how last years trumpeting of Ingram applies to Richardson unless it is a point about the staffs ability to rate rookies. If so id point out that we were also down on cam newton iirc but were high on mike Williams, Clinton Portis, randy mcmichael, Aaron Hernandez, on and on. We miss on some. We get a lot right. Not sure how missing on one player at a position one year sets an absolute precedent for a completely different player in another year.

2. Cleveland and new Orleans are different teams. We ignored a lot of signs about Ingram (as someone else mentioned above). The ONLY sign out of Cleveland that could be a bad thing is that hardesty is playing well in practice and preseason. So I suppose he could take some carries from Richardson. But otherwise the team traded up to take him 3rd, has a solid line, has been talking about running a ton, and has a fairly recent history of having great fantasy production from the backfield.

3. I'm sorry Ingram didn't work out for you last year, But his production was far from awful. He was banged up a lot and wasn't used as much as was expected. But if you take what he actually did on the field there is ample reason to think that our "miss" was in evaluating his situation, not his talent.

Skipping on Richardson at his current adp isn't likely to lose you your league. But selecting him in round 4 and getting top 10 production is exactly the kind of thing that can win you your league.

Should be fun to see it play out.

I think his point is that the FBG staff tends to overrate rookies, and not just a little bit. I think this is a function of footballguys coming up during the Edge, Fred Taylor, Curtis Martin era of rookie production. Truth is, rookie RBs haven't put up those type of numbers lately. And in the scramble to "discover" the next great thing, they put forth what amounts to hyperbole and unobtainable hype. Instead of doing the actual work that made you the best resource, you are forming opinions and rationalizing them. I've noticed it for a couple years now and I've been on this site since it was Mr. Football and the yellow boards. You've got great tools here, and your infrastructure is unparalleled, but your analysis and hype isn't as good any more.

That may be a fair criticism. It may be that we publish so much content that we end up having a pro and con position on most every player. Appreciate your thoughts.

True. But you really seem to latch on to certain players. I think Waldman predicted 15 touchdowns for Brandon Lloyd this year. He just keep doubling down on him despite him being the third or fourth target in that offense. It comes across as defensive almost. We all do it.

How do you know Matt is wrong? Isn't that what the season is for?

True, we don't know do we? We don't know anything and football is a crazy game. But the confirmation bias is very evident on certain players.

 

[Banger]

There is no magic 8 ball when it comes to predictions. Personally, I would rather have some conviction and different opinions on guys instead of a group think average. That offers no value what so ever. Guys break out every year, guys fail every year and I like when staffers/posters go against the grain not just for the sake of saying "look at me I was right" but when the come with some good factual analysis it can be the difference between winning and losing. I, for one, have bought Waldman's call on Lloyd hook, line and sinker (maybe not quite as high as him but do think he'll have a very good year) and we'll have to see how it works out.

Mark Ingram has ZERO bearing on whether Richardson will be successful this year, none. As I've said before, stats are great I love them but they are history and should be used as a tool, not a rule. Records are constantly broken and if you are looking in the past to see why it won't be done you'll miss the boat.

 

[sweetness34]

I’m not expecting TRich to be close to ADP or CJ in their rookie year, but I’m also not expecting him to be Ingram either.

Ok, CJ rookie season - 1,600 yards and 10 total TDs

ADP rookie season - 1,600 yards and 13 total TDs

Ingram rookie season - 500 yards and 5 total TDs

average - 1,233 total yards and 9 total TDs - pretty close to what Reggie Bush did last year. 3rd round seems to be about where you start considering him.

I'd say those numbers look about right. Realistic, but not too optimistic. (BTW, Reggie finished as the #8 RB in my league last year...)

He finished 8th in my league as well, tied exactly with F Jax and Peterson. The difference was that Bush did that over 15 games while F Jax did it over 10 and Peterson 12. Bush was only that good because he was "healthy" all season, and wouldn't have finished that high if guys like F Jax, Peterson, Forte, Mathews, S Jax, and even Bradshaw were as well.So comparing a "healthy" season for Bush against a season for T Rich where he's already starting it "not-healthy" might be a bit optimistic.

Good analysis and fair points.

I wonder where everyone currently has Mathews? I see him still ranked high (much higher than TRich) and being taken early mid 2nd. He's hurt "worse" than TRich & has a longer injury history. I have nothing against Mathews either - I'm just trying to look at things objectively, while acknowledging that we all still have bias - for or against certain players. It may be logical or completely "gut", but we all have it.

 

[Sabertooth]

I can certainly understand your points but I disagree with many of them. That isnt to say that Richardson will be a star or won't be, but....

1. Richardson and Ingram are different players. Im not sure how last years trumpeting of Ingram applies to Richardson unless it is a point about the staffs ability to rate rookies. If so id point out that we were also down on cam newton iirc but were high on mike Williams, Clinton Portis, randy mcmichael, Aaron Hernandez, on and on. We miss on some. We get a lot right. Not sure how missing on one player at a position one year sets an absolute precedent for a completely different player in another year.

2. Cleveland and new Orleans are different teams. We ignored a lot of signs about Ingram (as someone else mentioned above). The ONLY sign out of Cleveland that could be a bad thing is that hardesty is playing well in practice and preseason. So I suppose he could take some carries from Richardson. But otherwise the team traded up to take him 3rd, has a solid line, has been talking about running a ton, and has a fairly recent history of having great fantasy production from the backfield.

3. I'm sorry Ingram didn't work out for you last year, But his production was far from awful. He was banged up a lot and wasn't used as much as was expected. But if you take what he actually did on the field there is ample reason to think that our "miss" was in evaluating his situation, not his talent.

Skipping on Richardson at his current adp isn't likely to lose you your league. But selecting him in round 4 and getting top 10 production is exactly the kind of thing that can win you your league.

Should be fun to see it play out.

I think his point is that the FBG staff tends to overrate rookies, and not just a little bit. I think this is a function of footballguys coming up during the Edge, Fred Taylor, Curtis Martin era of rookie production. Truth is, rookie RBs haven't put up those type of numbers lately. And in the scramble to "discover" the next great thing, they put forth what amounts to hyperbole and unobtainable hype. Instead of doing the actual work that made you the best resource, you are forming opinions and rationalizing them. I've noticed it for a couple years now and I've been on this site since it was Mr. Football and the yellow boards. You've got great tools here, and your infrastructure is unparalleled, but your analysis and hype isn't as good any more.

Define lately...Chris Johnson 2008 - 1,228/9 + 43/260/1

Matt Forte 2008 - 1238/8 + 63/477/4

Steve Slaton 2008 - 1,282/9 + 50/377/1

LeGarrette Blount 2010 - 1,007/6

Demarco Murray 2011 - 897/2 in 7 games started

Not one of those guys was the top rookie running back off the board in the NFL draft. Of course some guys hit, that is the nature of the game. Let's take a look at how the cream of the crop did in those drafts.Chris Johnson was the 5th back off the board. Darren McFadden was selected 4th overall. He rushed for 499 yards and was the 45th ranked running back.

Matt Forte was the 6th back off the board in that same draft.

Steve Slaton was the 11th back off the board in that draft.

Blount wasn't drafted. CJ Spiller and Ryan Mathews were top 15 picks. Spiller was the 62nd ranked back, Mathews was 32nd.

Demarco Murray was 31st. Top back from last season was Mark Ingram...finished 46th.

One thing we can draw from this is that while players do make the grade in most draft classes, it is rarely the player we think it will be in August. The top picks just haven't cut the mustard like Fred Taylor and Edgerrin James did.

 

[matttyl]

I don't think the Mathews collar bone is comparable at all to the T Rich knee. The knee will end a RBs career easily, and he's had multiple surgeries on it.

 

[Sabertooth]

I don't think the Mathews collar bone is comparable at all to the T Rich knee. The knee will end a RBs career easily, and he's had multiple surgeries on it.

Yeah, leg injuries are scary.

 

[MAC_32]

I don't think the Mathews collar bone is comparable at all to the T Rich knee. The knee will end a RBs career easily, and he's had multiple surgeries on it.

Long term it's concerning, but short term his specific operation isn't a big concern.

 

[jurb26]

don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!

Yeah, there is some silly logic being produced in this thread.As it has been mentioned in the thread already, there is virtually nothing about Richardson and Ingram that are similar other than the fact that they both went to Alabama. There NFL situations couldn't be any more different and on top of that, they are different players with vastly different skill sets. The expectations should thus be, well, differnt.

Let's take a minute to try and outline some of the circumstances at play here.

1. Tallent. There can be no denying that Richardson is considered a far more talented prospect. His body of work demonstrated this while at Alabama and his draft position reinforced it. There is a HUGE gap between being the #3 overall player in the NFL draft and being the #28 player in the NFL draft. Richardson is considered the best RB prospect the NFL has seen since Peterson. He was agruably the highest rated player in his class. Ingram, while impressive, does not even sniff this type of consideration.

Advantage Richardson.

2. Situation. Richardson is entering a Clev. offense that was completely void of skill position talent and in dire need of a playmaker. This is exactly why they traded up to #3 to select Richardson, clearly the most dynamic playermaker in the draft. Ingram was entering a NO offense overloaded with skill position talent and playmakers. Clev runs a ground centered offesnive attack that looks to rely on a single bellcow at RB. NO runs a pass centered attack that focuses on it's elite QB to make plays in the passing game. Clev has no RBs on the roster behind Richardson who are talented enough or capible of keeping Richarson off the field as a 3 down back, assuming he is healthy. NO has 2 other RBs on the field who are/where talented and capable enough of keeping Ingram off the field. Not just in a 3 down sense, in a total RBBC sense limiting his touches greatly. Clev has a great Oline and has shown a willingness to use thier RBs heavily in the passing game. NO also has a very good Oline but more in a pass protecting sense and divides the RB reception opportunities amoung their RBBC.

Advantage Richardson

3. Injury. This seems to be the only reason that people have soured on Richardson. His ADP has dropped from 2.03 to 3.03 since the announcement that his knee would need scoped to remove some scare tissue. This to me is a total knee-jerk reaction (see what I did right there?) to a situation that will have little to no effect on Richardson. But wait, Hardesty has looked good in camp! Let me ask you this question. If Hardesty, a guy who has had about 100 knee opperations, can look good in camp and pre-season in this Clev RB starting role then how do you think Richardson will look? Clev is a team positioned to support very good RB production IMO. This will only become more evident once Richardson starts playing. On top of that, Ingram really only performed so poorly because he suffered an injury last season. That injury limited his ability and also helped perpetuate the RBBC mess in NO. Richardson is scheduled to be 100% by week 1 of the season. Of course he could get injured but projecting those is meaningless. On top of that, if he does get injured when he comes back I think we can expect with a much higher level of confidence him seeing the lions share of touches when he returns.

Advantage Richardson

I'm rather high on Richardson and to me it's pretty simple. Fantasy success is a simple product of talent meeting opportunity. Richardson is a rare rookie RB who is gushing in both of these areas. Ingram has/had talent but not as much as Richardson. Ingram did not have remotely close to the opportuntiy that Richardson will see this year though. Clev. has very few options on their offense and will be feeding the ball to their best player, Richardson. Yes it can be said that there will be fewer scoring opportunties than other RBs. I for one think those opportunities are being greatly exagerated in the scarcity but everyone has to come up with their own projections. The bottom line is I see Richardson amassing about 315 touches this year at a minimum. That would be 272 carries and 42 receptions. Again, that was my floor for Richardson's touches. My actual projections are 290 carries and 45 receptions. Given his talent level, surrounding cast and the outright scarcity of bellcow RBs that places him as a top 10 RB on my list. Comparing Richardson to Ingram is pretty shortsighted IMO. We should be evaluating each player under their own set of cercumstances. If you simply are not a believer in Richardson, the player/talent, then so be it. I'd still find it hard to argue that he will not receive a great opportunity to succeed, or perhaps fail.

I'd love to see some of the projected touches those of you who are so down on Richardson are expecting.

 

[Sabertooth]

don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!

Yeah, there is some silly logic being produced in this thread.As it has been mentioned in the thread already, there is virtually nothing about Richardson and Ingram that are similar other than the fact that they both went to Alabama. There NFL situations couldn't be any more different and on top of that, they are different players with vastly different skill sets. The expectations should thus be, well, differnt.

Let's take a minute to try and outline some of the circumstances at play here.

1. Tallent. There can be no denying that Richardson is considered a far more talented prospect. His body of work demonstrated this while at Alabama and his draft position reinforced it. There is a HUGE gap between being the #3 overall player in the NFL draft and being the #28 player in the NFL draft. Richardson is considered the best RB prospect the NFL has seen since Peterson. He was agruably the highest rated player in his class. Ingram, while impressive, does not even sniff this type of consideration.

Advantage Richardson.

2. Situation. Richardson is entering a Clev. offense that was completely void of skill position talent and in dire need of a playmaker. This is exactly why they traded up to #3 to select Richardson, clearly the most dynamic playermaker in the draft. Ingram was entering a NO offense overloaded with skill position talent and playmakers. Clev runs a ground centered offesnive attack that looks to rely on a single bellcow at RB. NO runs a pass centered attack that focuses on it's elite QB to make plays in the passing game. Clev has no RBs on the roster behind Richardson who are talented enough or capible of keeping Richarson off the field as a 3 down back, assuming he is healthy. NO has 2 other RBs on the field who are/where talented and capable enough of keeping Ingram off the field. Not just in a 3 down sense, in a total RBBC sense limiting his touches greatly. Clev has a great Oline and has shown a willingness to use thier RBs heavily in the passing game. NO also has a very good Oline but more in a pass protecting sense and divides the RB reception opportunities amoung their RBBC.

Advantage Richardson

3. Injury. This seems to be the only reason that people have soured on Richardson. His ADP has dropped from 2.03 to 3.03 since the announcement that his knee would need scoped to remove some scare tissue. This to me is a total knee-jerk reaction (see what I did right there?) to a situation that will have little to no effect on Richardson. But wait, Hardesty has looked good in camp! Let me ask you this question. If Hardesty, a guy who has had about 100 knee opperations, can look good in camp and pre-season in this Clev RB starting role then how do you think Richardson will look? Clev is a team positioned to support very good RB production IMO. This will only become more evident once Richardson starts playing. On top of that, Ingram really only performed so poorly because he suffered an injury last season. That injury limited his ability and also helped perpetuate the RBBC mess in NO. Richardson is scheduled to be 100% by week 1 of the season. Of course he could get injured but projecting those is meaningless. On top of that, if he does get injured when he comes back I think we can expect with a much higher level of confidence him seeing the lions share of touches when he returns.

Advantage Richardson

I'm rather high on Richardson and to me it's pretty simple. Fantasy success is a simple product of talent meeting opportunity. Richardson is a rare rookie RB who is gushing in both of these areas. Ingram has/had talent but not as much as Richardson. Ingram did not have remotely close to the opportuntiy that Richardson will see this year though. Clev. has very few options on their offense and will be feeding the ball to their best player, Richardson. Yes it can be said that there will be fewer scoring opportunties than other RBs. I for one think those opportunities are being greatly exagerated in the scarcity but everyone has to come up with their own projections. The bottom line is I see Richardson amassing about 315 touches this year at a minimum. That would be 272 carries and 42 receptions. Again, that was my floor for Richardson's touches. My actual projections are 290 carries and 45 receptions. Given his talent level, surrounding cast and the outright scarcity of bellcow RBs that places him as a top 10 RB on my list. Comparing Richardson to Ingram is pretty shortsighted IMO. We should be evaluating each player under their own set of cercumstances. If you simply are not a believer in Richardson, the player/talent, then so be it. I'd still find it hard to argue that he will not receive a great opportunity to succeed, or perhaps fail.

I'd love to see some of the projected touches those of you who are so down on Richardson are expecting.

Nick Saban, who is a pretty smart football coach, obviously didn't think Richardson was "far more talented." Just sayin.

 

[jurb26]

Nick Saban, who is a pretty smart football coach, obviously didn't think Richardson was "far more talented." Just sayin.

This is a weak argument and you know it. Barry Sanders sat behind T. Thomas, Brady could't break 3rd string at Michigan and so did several other players we could site.

 

[matuski]

don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!

Yeah, there is some silly logic being produced in this thread.As it has been mentioned in the thread already, there is virtually nothing about Richardson and Ingram that are similar other than the fact that they both went to Alabama. There NFL situations couldn't be any more different and on top of that, they are different players with vastly different skill sets. The expectations should thus be, well, differnt.

Let's take a minute to try and outline some of the circumstances at play here.

1. Tallent. There can be no denying that Richardson is considered a far more talented prospect. His body of work demonstrated this while at Alabama and his draft position reinforced it. There is a HUGE gap between being the #3 overall player in the NFL draft and being the #28 player in the NFL draft. Richardson is considered the best RB prospect the NFL has seen since Peterson. He was agruably the highest rated player in his class. Ingram, while impressive, does not even sniff this type of consideration.

Advantage Richardson.

2. Situation. Richardson is entering a Clev. offense that was completely void of skill position talent and in dire need of a playmaker. This is exactly why they traded up to #3 to select Richardson, clearly the most dynamic playermaker in the draft. Ingram was entering a NO offense overloaded with skill position talent and playmakers. Clev runs a ground centered offesnive attack that looks to rely on a single bellcow at RB. NO runs a pass centered attack that focuses on it's elite QB to make plays in the passing game. Clev has no RBs on the roster behind Richardson who are talented enough or capible of keeping Richarson off the field as a 3 down back, assuming he is healthy. NO has 2 other RBs on the field who are/where talented and capable enough of keeping Ingram off the field. Not just in a 3 down sense, in a total RBBC sense limiting his touches greatly. Clev has a great Oline and has shown a willingness to use thier RBs heavily in the passing game. NO also has a very good Oline but more in a pass protecting sense and divides the RB reception opportunities amoung their RBBC.

Advantage Richardson

3. Injury. This seems to be the only reason that people have soured on Richardson. His ADP has dropped from 2.03 to 3.03 since the announcement that his knee would need scoped to remove some scare tissue. This to me is a total knee-jerk reaction (see what I did right there?) to a situation that will have little to no effect on Richardson. But wait, Hardesty has looked good in camp! Let me ask you this question. If Hardesty, a guy who has had about 100 knee opperations, can look good in camp and pre-season in this Clev RB starting role then how do you think Richardson will look? Clev is a team positioned to support very good RB production IMO. This will only become more evident once Richardson starts playing. On top of that, Ingram really only performed so poorly because he suffered an injury last season. That injury limited his ability and also helped perpetuate the RBBC mess in NO. Richardson is scheduled to be 100% by week 1 of the season. Of course he could get injured but projecting those is meaningless. On top of that, if he does get injured when he comes back I think we can expect with a much higher level of confidence him seeing the lions share of touches when he returns.

Advantage Richardson

I'm rather high on Richardson and to me it's pretty simple. Fantasy success is a simple product of talent meeting opportunity. Richardson is a rare rookie RB who is gushing in both of these areas. Ingram has/had talent but not as much as Richardson. Ingram did not have remotely close to the opportuntiy that Richardson will see this year though. Clev. has very few options on their offense and will be feeding the ball to their best player, Richardson. Yes it can be said that there will be fewer scoring opportunties than other RBs. I for one think those opportunities are being greatly exagerated in the scarcity but everyone has to come up with their own projections. The bottom line is I see Richardson amassing about 315 touches this year at a minimum. That would be 272 carries and 42 receptions. Again, that was my floor for Richardson's touches. My actual projections are 290 carries and 45 receptions. Given his talent level, surrounding cast and the outright scarcity of bellcow RBs that places him as a top 10 RB on my list. Comparing Richardson to Ingram is pretty shortsighted IMO. We should be evaluating each player under their own set of cercumstances. If you simply are not a believer in Richardson, the player/talent, then so be it. I'd still find it hard to argue that he will not receive a great opportunity to succeed, or perhaps fail.

I'd love to see some of the projected touches those of you who are so down on Richardson are expecting.

I stopped after watching you talk yourself into Cleveland being a better situation than NO.

 

[Banger]

don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!

Yeah, there is some silly logic being produced in this thread.As it has been mentioned in the thread already, there is virtually nothing about Richardson and Ingram that are similar other than the fact that they both went to Alabama. There NFL situations couldn't be any more different and on top of that, they are different players with vastly different skill sets. The expectations should thus be, well, differnt.

Let's take a minute to try and outline some of the circumstances at play here.

1. Tallent. There can be no denying that Richardson is considered a far more talented prospect. His body of work demonstrated this while at Alabama and his draft position reinforced it. There is a HUGE gap between being the #3 overall player in the NFL draft and being the #28 player in the NFL draft. Richardson is considered the best RB prospect the NFL has seen since Peterson. He was agruably the highest rated player in his class. Ingram, while impressive, does not even sniff this type of consideration.

Advantage Richardson.

2. Situation. Richardson is entering a Clev. offense that was completely void of skill position talent and in dire need of a playmaker. This is exactly why they traded up to #3 to select Richardson, clearly the most dynamic playermaker in the draft. Ingram was entering a NO offense overloaded with skill position talent and playmakers. Clev runs a ground centered offesnive attack that looks to rely on a single bellcow at RB. NO runs a pass centered attack that focuses on it's elite QB to make plays in the passing game. Clev has no RBs on the roster behind Richardson who are talented enough or capible of keeping Richarson off the field as a 3 down back, assuming he is healthy. NO has 2 other RBs on the field who are/where talented and capable enough of keeping Ingram off the field. Not just in a 3 down sense, in a total RBBC sense limiting his touches greatly. Clev has a great Oline and has shown a willingness to use thier RBs heavily in the passing game. NO also has a very good Oline but more in a pass protecting sense and divides the RB reception opportunities amoung their RBBC.

Advantage Richardson

3. Injury. This seems to be the only reason that people have soured on Richardson. His ADP has dropped from 2.03 to 3.03 since the announcement that his knee would need scoped to remove some scare tissue. This to me is a total knee-jerk reaction (see what I did right there?) to a situation that will have little to no effect on Richardson. But wait, Hardesty has looked good in camp! Let me ask you this question. If Hardesty, a guy who has had about 100 knee opperations, can look good in camp and pre-season in this Clev RB starting role then how do you think Richardson will look? Clev is a team positioned to support very good RB production IMO. This will only become more evident once Richardson starts playing. On top of that, Ingram really only performed so poorly because he suffered an injury last season. That injury limited his ability and also helped perpetuate the RBBC mess in NO. Richardson is scheduled to be 100% by week 1 of the season. Of course he could get injured but projecting those is meaningless. On top of that, if he does get injured when he comes back I think we can expect with a much higher level of confidence him seeing the lions share of touches when he returns.

Advantage Richardson

I'm rather high on Richardson and to me it's pretty simple. Fantasy success is a simple product of talent meeting opportunity. Richardson is a rare rookie RB who is gushing in both of these areas. Ingram has/had talent but not as much as Richardson. Ingram did not have remotely close to the opportuntiy that Richardson will see this year though. Clev. has very few options on their offense and will be feeding the ball to their best player, Richardson. Yes it can be said that there will be fewer scoring opportunties than other RBs. I for one think those opportunities are being greatly exagerated in the scarcity but everyone has to come up with their own projections. The bottom line is I see Richardson amassing about 315 touches this year at a minimum. That would be 272 carries and 42 receptions. Again, that was my floor for Richardson's touches. My actual projections are 290 carries and 45 receptions. Given his talent level, surrounding cast and the outright scarcity of bellcow RBs that places him as a top 10 RB on my list. Comparing Richardson to Ingram is pretty shortsighted IMO. We should be evaluating each player under their own set of cercumstances. If you simply are not a believer in Richardson, the player/talent, then so be it. I'd still find it hard to argue that he will not receive a great opportunity to succeed, or perhaps fail.

I'd love to see some of the projected touches those of you who are so down on Richardson are expecting.

I stopped after watching you talk yourself into Cleveland being a better situation than NO.

you shouldn't have

 

[sweetness34]

don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!

Yeah, there is some silly logic being produced in this thread.As it has been mentioned in the thread already, there is virtually nothing about Richardson and Ingram that are similar other than the fact that they both went to Alabama. There NFL situations couldn't be any more different and on top of that, they are different players with vastly different skill sets. The expectations should thus be, well, differnt.

Let's take a minute to try and outline some of the circumstances at play here.

1. Tallent. There can be no denying that Richardson is considered a far more talented prospect. His body of work demonstrated this while at Alabama and his draft position reinforced it. There is a HUGE gap between being the #3 overall player in the NFL draft and being the #28 player in the NFL draft. Richardson is considered the best RB prospect the NFL has seen since Peterson. He was agruably the highest rated player in his class. Ingram, while impressive, does not even sniff this type of consideration.

Advantage Richardson.

2. Situation. Richardson is entering a Clev. offense that was completely void of skill position talent and in dire need of a playmaker. This is exactly why they traded up to #3 to select Richardson, clearly the most dynamic playermaker in the draft. Ingram was entering a NO offense overloaded with skill position talent and playmakers. Clev runs a ground centered offesnive attack that looks to rely on a single bellcow at RB. NO runs a pass centered attack that focuses on it's elite QB to make plays in the passing game. Clev has no RBs on the roster behind Richardson who are talented enough or capible of keeping Richarson off the field as a 3 down back, assuming he is healthy. NO has 2 other RBs on the field who are/where talented and capable enough of keeping Ingram off the field. Not just in a 3 down sense, in a total RBBC sense limiting his touches greatly. Clev has a great Oline and has shown a willingness to use thier RBs heavily in the passing game. NO also has a very good Oline but more in a pass protecting sense and divides the RB reception opportunities amoung their RBBC.

Advantage Richardson

3. Injury. This seems to be the only reason that people have soured on Richardson. His ADP has dropped from 2.03 to 3.03 since the announcement that his knee would need scoped to remove some scare tissue. This to me is a total knee-jerk reaction (see what I did right there?) to a situation that will have little to no effect on Richardson. But wait, Hardesty has looked good in camp! Let me ask you this question. If Hardesty, a guy who has had about 100 knee opperations, can look good in camp and pre-season in this Clev RB starting role then how do you think Richardson will look? Clev is a team positioned to support very good RB production IMO. This will only become more evident once Richardson starts playing. On top of that, Ingram really only performed so poorly because he suffered an injury last season. That injury limited his ability and also helped perpetuate the RBBC mess in NO. Richardson is scheduled to be 100% by week 1 of the season. Of course he could get injured but projecting those is meaningless. On top of that, if he does get injured when he comes back I think we can expect with a much higher level of confidence him seeing the lions share of touches when he returns.

Advantage Richardson

I'm rather high on Richardson and to me it's pretty simple. Fantasy success is a simple product of talent meeting opportunity. Richardson is a rare rookie RB who is gushing in both of these areas. Ingram has/had talent but not as much as Richardson. Ingram did not have remotely close to the opportuntiy that Richardson will see this year though. Clev. has very few options on their offense and will be feeding the ball to their best player, Richardson. Yes it can be said that there will be fewer scoring opportunties than other RBs. I for one think those opportunities are being greatly exagerated in the scarcity but everyone has to come up with their own projections. The bottom line is I see Richardson amassing about 315 touches this year at a minimum. That would be 272 carries and 42 receptions. Again, that was my floor for Richardson's touches. My actual projections are 290 carries and 45 receptions. Given his talent level, surrounding cast and the outright scarcity of bellcow RBs that places him as a top 10 RB on my list. Comparing Richardson to Ingram is pretty shortsighted IMO. We should be evaluating each player under their own set of cercumstances. If you simply are not a believer in Richardson, the player/talent, then so be it. I'd still find it hard to argue that he will not receive a great opportunity to succeed, or perhaps fail.

I'd love to see some of the projected touches those of you who are so down on Richardson are expecting.

I stopped after watching you talk yourself into Cleveland being a better situation than NO.

In a vacuum, of course NO is "better" (in many, many ways.) However, if talking about for a RB specifically, I agree with Jurb here, and I think he gave good reasons for his analysis.

 

[jurb26]

don't draft x player because y player failed to produce... sounds like some true shark advice!!

Yeah, there is some silly logic being produced in this thread.As it has been mentioned in the thread already, there is virtually nothing about Richardson and Ingram that are similar other than the fact that they both went to Alabama. There NFL situations couldn't be any more different and on top of that, they are different players with vastly different skill sets. The expectations should thus be, well, differnt.

Let's take a minute to try and outline some of the circumstances at play here.

1. Tallent. There can be no denying that Richardson is considered a far more talented prospect. His body of work demonstrated this while at Alabama and his draft position reinforced it. There is a HUGE gap between being the #3 overall player in the NFL draft and being the #28 player in the NFL draft. Richardson is considered the best RB prospect the NFL has seen since Peterson. He was agruably the highest rated player in his class. Ingram, while impressive, does not even sniff this type of consideration.

Advantage Richardson.

2. Situation. Richardson is entering a Clev. offense that was completely void of skill position talent and in dire need of a playmaker. This is exactly why they traded up to #3 to select Richardson, clearly the most dynamic playermaker in the draft. Ingram was entering a NO offense overloaded with skill position talent and playmakers. Clev runs a ground centered offesnive attack that looks to rely on a single bellcow at RB. NO runs a pass centered attack that focuses on it's elite QB to make plays in the passing game. Clev has no RBs on the roster behind Richardson who are talented enough or capible of keeping Richarson off the field as a 3 down back, assuming he is healthy. NO has 2 other RBs on the field who are/where talented and capable enough of keeping Ingram off the field. Not just in a 3 down sense, in a total RBBC sense limiting his touches greatly. Clev has a great Oline and has shown a willingness to use thier RBs heavily in the passing game. NO also has a very good Oline but more in a pass protecting sense and divides the RB reception opportunities amoung their RBBC.

Advantage Richardson

3. Injury. This seems to be the only reason that people have soured on Richardson. His ADP has dropped from 2.03 to 3.03 since the announcement that his knee would need scoped to remove some scare tissue. This to me is a total knee-jerk reaction (see what I did right there?) to a situation that will have little to no effect on Richardson. But wait, Hardesty has looked good in camp! Let me ask you this question. If Hardesty, a guy who has had about 100 knee opperations, can look good in camp and pre-season in this Clev RB starting role then how do you think Richardson will look? Clev is a team positioned to support very good RB production IMO. This will only become more evident once Richardson starts playing. On top of that, Ingram really only performed so poorly because he suffered an injury last season. That injury limited his ability and also helped perpetuate the RBBC mess in NO. Richardson is scheduled to be 100% by week 1 of the season. Of course he could get injured but projecting those is meaningless. On top of that, if he does get injured when he comes back I think we can expect with a much higher level of confidence him seeing the lions share of touches when he returns.

Advantage Richardson

I'm rather high on Richardson and to me it's pretty simple. Fantasy success is a simple product of talent meeting opportunity. Richardson is a rare rookie RB who is gushing in both of these areas. Ingram has/had talent but not as much as Richardson. Ingram did not have remotely close to the opportuntiy that Richardson will see this year though. Clev. has very few options on their offense and will be feeding the ball to their best player, Richardson. Yes it can be said that there will be fewer scoring opportunties than other RBs. I for one think those opportunities are being greatly exagerated in the scarcity but everyone has to come up with their own projections. The bottom line is I see Richardson amassing about 315 touches this year at a minimum. That would be 272 carries and 42 receptions. Again, that was my floor for Richardson's touches. My actual projections are 290 carries and 45 receptions. Given his talent level, surrounding cast and the outright scarcity of bellcow RBs that places him as a top 10 RB on my list. Comparing Richardson to Ingram is pretty shortsighted IMO. We should be evaluating each player under their own set of cercumstances. If you simply are not a believer in Richardson, the player/talent, then so be it. I'd still find it hard to argue that he will not receive a great opportunity to succeed, or perhaps fail.

I'd love to see some of the projected touches those of you who are so down on Richardson are expecting.

I stopped after watching you talk yourself into Cleveland being a better situation than NO.

Please explain how MJD managed to finish as the #3 RB in fantasy last year and well ahead of any RB in NO while playing on the #32 ranked offense in the NFL and NO had the #1 ranked offense in the NFL.Here's a hint, the answer is in my OP.

 

[griff321]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

Drafted him at the 1st/2nd round turn in an early draft $ league and havent looked back or regretted it even slightly.

 

[Donnybrook]

I can see and argument for SJax or FJax over TRich, but at some point when you're debating between BJGE and Gore or TRich, you have to draw the line somewhere.Those saying 4th or 5th round are just exaggerating, 99% of leagues he'll be gone in the 3rd at some point.

He went at 1.09 in a redraft league i'm in.

 

[voiceofunreason]

The gamble proved to be a losing one, but we can't say there weren't any warning signals.Contrast with Richardson, who brings crazy measurables

This is my problem with Richardson. The hype is more out of control than with Ingram and almost as baseless. What crazy measureables does he have again? Average spead, average size, good hands? He's a volume player. He will need a lot of touches. He isn't anything like AP--at all. He's a Michael Turner without the speed but who can catch. All these guys who think he is a dynamic, game-breaker are in for a rude awakening.

 

[jurb26]

I can see and argument for SJax or FJax over TRich, but at some point when you're debating between BJGE and Gore or TRich, you have to draw the line somewhere.

Those saying 4th or 5th round are just exaggerating, 99% of leagues he'll be gone in the 3rd at some point.

He went at 1.09 in a redraft league i'm in.

I took him at 2.04. His ADP is 3.03. Getting him in the 4th or 5th is a total pipe dream. It could happen, but is extremely unlikely.

 

[jurb26]

The gamble proved to be a losing one, but we can't say there weren't any warning signals.Contrast with Richardson, who brings crazy measurables

This is my problem with Richardson. The hype is more out of control than with Ingram and almost as baseless. What crazy measureables does he have again? Average spead, average size, good hands? He's a volume player. He will need a lot of touches. He isn't anything like AP--at all. He's a Michael Turner without the speed but who can catch. All these guys who think he is a dynamic, game-breaker are in for a rude awakening.

How many touches will he need to live up to his ADP, 3.03 and RB16? How many do you project?

 

[voiceofunreason]

The gamble proved to be a losing one, but we can't say there weren't any warning signals.Contrast with Richardson, who brings crazy measurables

This is my problem with Richardson. The hype is more out of control than with Ingram and almost as baseless. What crazy measureables does he have again? Average spead, average size, good hands? He's a volume player. He will need a lot of touches. He isn't anything like AP--at all. He's a Michael Turner without the speed but who can catch. All these guys who think he is a dynamic, game-breaker are in for a rude awakening.

How many touches will he need to live up to his ADP, 3.03 and RB16? How many do you project?

I'm not saying he isn't a decent RB2. I do see him as a decent RB2 mainly because there are so many RBBCs and he will get a lot of volume if he's healthy, without any doubt. I'm saying he isn't AP, Eric Dickerson or any elite rb you can name. I really don't see him as a top 3 rb in the future. A top 10 rb or even just below top 3? Yeah. But there is a talent gap between guys like AP and CJ and guys like Michael Turner. From a dynasty perspective, some people are taking this guy as the 3rd or 4th rb in startups. The knee problems have cooled the hype but it was insane.

 

[MAC_32]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

I didn't buy into any of them, none of them were as good as Trent or as pro ready. My only concern is the knee.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

How many touches will he need to live up to his ADP, 3.03 and RB16? How many do you project?

I think he becomes a solid pick at this point, just based on likely volume. He'll go quite a bit earlier than that in most leagues, though. There's at least one kool aid drinker who will take him late 1st / early 2nd in every league I'm in, anyway.

 

[domvin]

I hate to say it but there is some truth here. I got burned badly by Ingram last season. The hype was out of control. It is worse for Richardson. Great point about Chris Johnson.

I'm sorry but if you can't tell the difference between Trent Richardson and mark Ingram you deserve to get burned. Late 2nd early third seems about right for TR. after the top three there are nothing but question marks. I'd rather have Fred Jackson this year, but I bet Richardson is a top 10 rb after the first four weeks.

The year before Ingram it was Matthews then Moreno/Brown/Wells, and a year before that DMC. First round rookie RB hype gets out of control every season since AD won a bunch of money for people. I have no problem with taking TRich as high as the mid 3rd, but people are paying a higher price than that right now. A lot of people took him in the mid 1st before the surgery and a lot of that came from FBGs hype. Buyer beware.

I didn't buy into any of them, none of them were as good as Trent or as pro ready. My only concern is the knee.

My concern is the Staph infection he has not contracted yet in ClevelandSeriously, all the posts comparing Richardson to Ingram are hard to understand.Ingram came out a year early bc Richardson was the best rb in that backfield and he was nipping on ingrams heels for more PT.Aside from also being the best rb prospect in 2011, Ingram would have been a fool to stay in another year. Writing was on the wall, Richardson has far more talent than Ingram and he needed to capitalize on being the 1st overall rb picked.The Hype? That's normal. Everyone was hyped on ingram also last year, especially FBGs.....

 

[jurb26]

How many touches will he need to live up to his ADP, 3.03 and RB16? How many do you project?

I think he's a solid pick at this point. I think that he'll go quite a bit earlier than that in most leagues, though. There's at least one kool aid drinker who will take him late 1st / early 2nd in every league I'm in, anyway.

Perhaps so, but his ADP is as such because while there are many leagues where he goes sooner, there are also many he goes later.As I stated earlier, I took him at 2.04. I've got him ranked as RB7 in my projections though and there is no way he makes it back to me at 3.09. Well, it would be extremely unlikely that he would make it back there. If you believe in him then you have to reach a bit if you are picking at the back half of the draft.

Projections;

290 carries, 1285 yds, 8 TDs

45 reception, 390 yds, 1 TD

266.5 points in this league format