What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

QB Anthony Richardson, IND (1 Viewer)

I’m not ready to call him a bust yet. I’m really just shocked that so many reputably FF writers had him as a 2024 top 5 redraft play based on a handful of games last year.

As a dynasty shareholder I kept looking at the ranks and ADP thinking “no way in hell do I spend that pick on that dude with so many other more proven options where he’s being drafted.

NFFC ROC leagues he was regularly going as the 5th or 6th QB off the board. Insanity.

Feels like this time next year, a lot of the FF community will make those writers wear that ranking like a millstone. It should absolutely be a hit to their credibility.
 
I seem to remember Lamar Jackson couldn't hit the ocean three feet from it when he first came into the league. While I've always pointed out how inaccurate AR is on short to medium throws, there is still hope with him. The Colts current problems are far more reaching. Their inability to stop the run reminds me of their Super Bowl winning year in 2026, where they couldn't stop the run, but when the playoffs arrived they were suddenly the 85 Bears, once they got Bob Sanders back from injury. Now this team is not that team and isn't going anywhere but down. They lost Buckner, Latu, and Brents this week to injury. Not sure for how long, but Brents' injury may be season ending. This team is in deep trouble for 2024. That I do know.

Not to nearly the same extent.

After starting 6 games as a rookie, in his second year Lamar Jackson completed 66% of his passes with 36 TDs and 6 INTs.

Granted Richardson played 2 fewer games than Lamar as rookie, but this year of course looks very different than what Lamar looked like in year 2, or even what Lamar looked like as a rookie.

In his first 3 years (38 games) Lamar never had a game where he completed 50% of his passes or fewer. Richardson has completed 50% or fewer 3 times already.

But the really big difference is that Lamar could stay healthy while running, and his coaches didn't have to protect him by asking him to tone down the running. Lamar ran for 70+ yards in 6 of his first 7 starts. Richardson's career high is 56 yards.

Again, the ONLY guy Richardson compares to and the only path to upside is Josh Allen. People throw out names like Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts but he's nothing like those guys. Josh Allen was similarly inaccurate as a rookie but again the one thing Allen always had was the ability to stay healthy.

I saw enough at Florida to evaluate AR as a long shot lotto ticket based on his very tempting physicality but 2 cent accuracy and the inability to stay healthy on a consistent basis.

Colts will be drafting another QB by 2027 after the AR experience is deemed a failure.

He will show flashes but never be that guy that can win consistently at the pro level.
100%. Thank you Todem for being an AR truther in a dense forest of manufactured hype

He was not a good college quarterback. All you had to do was watch a couple of Gator games to see that. But if your scouting was based exclusively on SportsCenter Top 10 highlights, I can see why people saw him as a can’t miss prospect

Not good college QBs rarely turn into great NFL QBs, no matter how physically gifted they are
Let's see how he does with more than 7 career NFL starts.
 
Who is the last "raw" player that truly made it into the investment put forth for a high draft pick? Seems like a lot of teams are chasing their own tails thinking they can solve a problem no one else seems to be able to solve either.

Josh Allen is the last in that mold, which is also the most similar comp to Richardson in college.

But you're right it's extremely rare that it ends up working out.
 
Who is the last "raw" player that truly made it into the investment put forth for a high draft pick? Seems like a lot of teams are chasing their own tails thinking they can solve a problem no one else seems to be able to solve either.

Josh Allen is the last in that mold, which is also the most similar comp to Richardson in college.

But you're right it's extremely rare that it ends up working out.
I'm not disagreeing with either of you, but he has only had 7 starts and I think Steichen is using him wrong. If he would just get him out of the pocket more he would think less and may be more effective. Both as a passer and runner. Just my opinion and I could be completely bonkers, but it is worth a try. I'm not sure what's rolling around in Steichen's head.
 
I think the concerning part is accuracy on the easy throws. There are not too many examples that I can think of with young QBs that really struggle in that area that have dramatically improved. Not impossible, but I don’t believe history is on his side.
 
Last edited:
You're flailing around in here knowing you were wrong, dude is a bust
Panic much?
I'm not panicked, I'm not invested. Accuracy can be improved but his is so awful it's a hill I don't see him climbing. But for as long as he can hold on as starter he'll get you fantasy points as he can run and occasionally hit some bombs. Some can't discern the difference from good fantasy QB vs good NFL QB.
Most on this site only care about FF, but I still think he can be a good NFL QB too. Essentially his rookie year, so going to cut him some slack. Not saying he will become Josh Allen but he really reminds me of him his first couple seasons. Poor accuracy but you saw some amazing throws that gave you hope. I recall a certain all-pro CB who referred to Allen as "trash". Sometimes it just has to click.
 
My biggest takeaway is that he's a young qb, was drafted as a project, and missed most of his rookie season.

Of course he's going to be bad now. That was expected from the start. If he hasn't improved or has digressed by the end of the season you can sound the alarms but at least give him until November.
 
My biggest takeaway is that he's a young qb, was drafted as a project, and missed most of his rookie season.

Of course he's going to be bad now. That was expected from the start. If he hasn't improved or has digressed by the end of the season you can sound the alarms but at least give him until November.
It is on the coaches to tailor the offense as well.

Look what Ravens did with Lamar. And Lamar was a much more accomplished passer coming out.

I wonder sometimes about offensive coordinators in the NFL. Everyone has/wants the young fresh mind, but are these guys experienced/confident enough to build an offense for the talent they have? Or do many of them have the only passing and rushing concepts they know, and can't adapt?
 
I’m not ready to call him a bust yet. I’m really just shocked that so many reputably FF writers had him as a 2024 top 5 redraft play based on a handful of games last year.

As a dynasty shareholder I kept looking at the ranks and ADP thinking “no way in hell do I spend that pick on that dude with so many other more proven options where he’s being drafted.

NFFC ROC leagues he was regularly going as the 5th or 6th QB off the board. Insanity.

Feels like this time next year, a lot of the FF community will make those writers wear that ranking like a millstone. It should absolutely be a hit to their credibility.
Accountability rarely happens in this profession.
 
Who is the last "raw" player that truly made it into the investment put forth for a high draft pick? Seems like a lot of teams are chasing their own tails thinking they can solve a problem no one else seems to be able to solve either.

Josh Allen is the last in that mold, which is also the most similar comp to Richardson in college.

But you're right it's extremely rare that it ends up working out.
I'm not disagreeing with either of you, but he has only had 7 starts and I think Steichen is using him wrong. If he would just get him out of the pocket more he would think less and may be more effective. Both as a passer and runner. Just my opinion and I could be completely bonkers, but it is worth a try. I'm not sure what's rolling around in Steichen's head.
I just wonder if it’s worth the hassle. We love his raw talent screams a ton of work and little time to do something about it before the organization and fans reach for pitchforks.

QB is such a crapshoot where you look at a team like the 49ers going for Lance and his potential to fall back into Purdy.

The common thread most common for success appears to be many college starts while showing success. Richardson fits the mold of average college success with few starts and yet teams just cannot help themselves.

(And yes I know Trevor Lawrence breaks the mold currently for my point above - just saying teams are continuing to hedge their bets in a strategy that seems to very rarely pay off)
 
I’m not ready to call him a bust yet. I’m really just shocked that so many reputably FF writers had him as a 2024 top 5 redraft play based on a handful of games last year.

As a dynasty shareholder I kept looking at the ranks and ADP thinking “no way in hell do I spend that pick on that dude with so many other more proven options where he’s being drafted.

NFFC ROC leagues he was regularly going as the 5th or 6th QB off the board. Insanity.

Feels like this time next year, a lot of the FF community will make those writers wear that ranking like a millstone. It should absolutely be a hit to their credibility.
Man, so much this.

It used to be you got the rushing upside unproven QB in the 8th-10th round and hoped for the breakout. He was being drafted like we already saw the breakout.

Jayden Daniels was much more properly priced
 
My biggest takeaway is that he's a young qb, was drafted as a project, and missed most of his rookie season.

Of course he's going to be bad now. That was expected from the start. If he hasn't improved or has digressed by the end of the season you can sound the alarms but at least give him until November.
It is on the coaches to tailor the offense as well.

Look what Ravens did with Lamar. And Lamar was a much more accomplished passer coming out.

I wonder sometimes about offensive coordinators in the NFL. Everyone has/wants the young fresh mind, but are these guys experienced/confident enough to build an offense for the talent they have? Or do many of them have the only passing and rushing concepts they know, and can't adapt?
Yes, it is the coaches job to tailor an offense that best suits the talent he has. Not to force the talent to suit his desired offense.
 
I’m not ready to call him a bust yet. I’m really just shocked that so many reputably FF writers had him as a 2024 top 5 redraft play based on a handful of games last year.

As a dynasty shareholder I kept looking at the ranks and ADP thinking “no way in hell do I spend that pick on that dude with so many other more proven options where he’s being drafted.

NFFC ROC leagues he was regularly going as the 5th or 6th QB off the board. Insanity.

Feels like this time next year, a lot of the FF community will make those writers wear that ranking like a millstone. It should absolutely be a hit to their credibility.
Man, so much this.

It used to be you got the rushing upside unproven QB in the 8th-10th round and hoped for the breakout. He was being drafted like we already saw the breakout.

Jayden Daniels was much more properly priced
Anyone recall where FBG writers had him ranked preseason? IIRC it was similarly high.
 
I’m not ready to call him a bust yet. I’m really just shocked that so many reputably FF writers had him as a 2024 top 5 redraft play based on a handful of games last year.

As a dynasty shareholder I kept looking at the ranks and ADP thinking “no way in hell do I spend that pick on that dude with so many other more proven options where he’s being drafted.

NFFC ROC leagues he was regularly going as the 5th or 6th QB off the board. Insanity.

Feels like this time next year, a lot of the FF community will make those writers wear that ranking like a millstone. It should absolutely be a hit to their credibility.
Man, so much this.

It used to be you got the rushing upside unproven QB in the 8th-10th round and hoped for the breakout. He was being drafted like we already saw the breakout.

Jayden Daniels was much more properly priced
Anyone recall where FBG writers had him ranked preseason? IIRC it was similarly high.
Groupthink is a massive, massive problem in fantasy.
 
My biggest takeaway is that he's a young qb, was drafted as a project, and missed most of his rookie season.

Of course he's going to be bad now. That was expected from the start. If he hasn't improved or has digressed by the end of the season you can sound the alarms but at least give him until November.

I agree with this take. He has the gifts to produce monster games, but he's still raw. He's not "match-up proof" yet.

Foe example: No WAY I am playing him this weekend.
 
I’m not ready to call him a bust yet. I’m really just shocked that so many reputably FF writers had him as a 2024 top 5 redraft play based on a handful of games last year.

As a dynasty shareholder I kept looking at the ranks and ADP thinking “no way in hell do I spend that pick on that dude with so many other more proven options where he’s being drafted.

NFFC ROC leagues he was regularly going as the 5th or 6th QB off the board. Insanity.

Feels like this time next year, a lot of the FF community will make those writers wear that ranking like a millstone. It should absolutely be a hit to their credibility.
Man, so much this.

It used to be you got the rushing upside unproven QB in the 8th-10th round and hoped for the breakout. He was being drafted like we already saw the breakout.

Jayden Daniels was much more properly priced
Daniels came into the NFL as a legit QB who could throw the ball at an elite level but who also could run with the best of them. The pricing for Daniels was wildly inaccurate based on his performance to date. Daniels has both of the skill sets needed to be a unicorn, we will see if he can reach that level over time. He's no project like the AR truthers are desperately pinning their hopes to.
 
How some of you didn't lern after the Trey Lance fiasco (which I also was adament he'd flop) is beyond me...

Why do you expect guys who can't QB in college, to be good in the pros? How does that make any sense whatsoever?
 
How some of you didn't lern after the Trey Lance fiasco (which I also was adament he'd flop) is beyond me...

Why do you expect guys who can't QB in college, to be good in the pros? How does that make any sense whatsoever?
Read Matt Waldmans Rookie Analysis last year. Explains it very clearly.
 
He’s coming off a bad game and goes against the Steelers this week but was a QB1 over the first two weeks. We’re working with a small sample size but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s a top 10 in fantasy over the season. He’s worse in real life.

Jayden being better is not surprising at all.
 
Last edited:
How some of you didn't lern after the Trey Lance fiasco (which I also was adament he'd flop) is beyond me...

Why do you expect guys who can't QB in college, to be good in the pros? How does that make any sense whatsoever?
Read Matt Waldmans Rookie Analysis last year. Explains it very clearly.

If I find the article, maybe I will. But I watch college. I scout players myself. I trust what I see.

And typically, I do pretty well at gauging a player's abilities. This cat NEVER said anything to me other than a somewhat more competent Trey Lance

Hell, I even stuck my neck out and said Caleb would be a bust. Obv way too early, and as an owner of bears WRs, I'd love to be wrong... And I think I will be, somewhat. He'll probably be decent, but not good.
 
How some of you didn't lern after the Trey Lance fiasco (which I also was adament he'd flop) is beyond me...

Why do you expect guys who can't QB in college, to be good in the pros? How does that make any sense whatsoever?
Read Matt Waldmans Rookie Analysis last year. Explains it very clearly.
Well, you do realize Waldman is wrong a lot too? A lot
 
Last edited:
He’s coming off a bad game against the Steelers but was a QB1 over the first two weeks. We’re working with a small sample size but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s a top 10 in fantasy over the season. He’s worse in real life.
I am not trying to live with these spike weeks.

He could wind up with same amount of points as some of the other top QBs, but a week your QB is awful really can sink that week.

If I was in the playoffs, but my team was mid, and I needed monster games, I could see starting him.
 
Man, I didn't get him in any redrafts. But in a startup dynasty, I took him as my guy. Got Levis and Stafford also. I am in hell.
 
He’s coming off a bad game against the Steelers but was a QB1 over the first two weeks. We’re working with a small sample size but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s a top 10 in fantasy over the season. He’s worse in real life.
I am not trying to live with these spike weeks.

He could wind up with same amount of points as some of the other top QBs, but a week your QB is awful really can sink that week.

If I was in the playoffs, but my team was mid, and I needed monster games, I could see starting him.

This is a big part of the problem I think. This past week, my team actually decently outscored my opponents in most positions apart from at QB where the gap was 27 points. They had Daniels who scored 31 and ARich managed 4. FOUR points man. Just brutal. Can't start him again until he shows something, until then week 1 was a mirage.
 
How some of you didn't lern after the Trey Lance fiasco (which I also was adament he'd flop) is beyond me...

Why do you expect guys who can't QB in college, to be good in the pros? How does that make any sense whatsoever?
Read Matt Waldmans Rookie Analysis last year. Explains it very clearly.
Well, you do realize Waldman is wrong a lot too? A lot
Of course. Matt emphasizes that also.

But you were asking if a case can be made for a QBs success with little college pedigree, and Waldman provides that with details.
 
This kinda says a lot.


Maybe, just maybe people are being harder on ARich because they didn’t like ARich.

It’s just a theory.
Stroud has a completion % of 67%.
Richardson has a completion % of 49%.

Stroud had one of the better rookie QB season's we've seen. Richardson missed most of his, only giving us a 4 game sample size.

While he's sitting at 49%, I don't think anyone's being unfair. I just don't. He's not shown he's a competent NFL QB. He's got a cannon and can take the top off the defense. But lots of guys have had cannons. When the defenses commit to taking away the deep ball, is he good enough making normal NFL passes to succeed? So far, the results aren't promising.

And while we can certainly point to previous guys who got off to slow starts before succeeding--49% through 3 games with such low volume sure seems concerning to me.
 
How some of you didn't lern after the Trey Lance fiasco (which I also was adament he'd flop) is beyond me...

Why do you expect guys who can't QB in college, to be good in the pros? How does that make any sense whatsoever?

Occasionally it works out, like with Josh Allen. People get wide eyes over the hits, and forget about the busts.

It's a negative EV play to spend high value on a guy that couldn't perform in college. But it's not zero, so people will chase the cases that worked out, even if it's negative EV.
 
How some of you didn't lern after the Trey Lance fiasco (which I also was adament he'd flop) is beyond me...

Why do you expect guys who can't QB in college, to be good in the pros? How does that make any sense whatsoever?

Occasionally it works out, like with Josh Allen. People get wide eyes over the hits, and forget about the busts.

It's a negative EV play to spend high value on a guy that couldn't perform in college. But it's not zero, so people will chase the cases that worked out, even if it's negative EV.
Right. If it hits you’re set for a decade or more. If it misses, maybe you’re able to recover or maybe you’ll be looking for your next job with millions in the bank.
 
This kinda says a lot.


Maybe, just maybe people are being harder on ARich because they didn’t like ARich.

It’s just a theory.
Stroud has a completion % of 67%.
Richardson has a completion % of 49%.

Stroud had one of the better rookie QB season's we've seen. Richardson missed most of his, only giving us a 4 game sample size.

While he's sitting at 49%, I don't think anyone's being unfair. I just don't. He's not shown he's a competent NFL QB. He's got a cannon and can take the top off the defense. But lots of guys have had cannons. When the defenses commit to taking away the deep ball, is he good enough making normal NFL passes to succeed? So far, the results aren't promising.

And while we can certainly point to previous guys who got off to slow starts before succeeding--49% through 3 games with such low volume sure seems concerning to me.

It seems like maybe, there is a disconnect in this conversation. Are we talking fantasy QB or real-life QB? If AR doesn't get better as a passer, it really doesn't matter what his fantasy numbers are, he'll be out of the league in 2 years.
 
My biggest takeaway is that he's a young qb, was drafted as a project, and missed most of his rookie season.

Of course he's going to be bad now. That was expected from the start. If he hasn't improved or has digressed by the end of the season you can sound the alarms but at least give him until November.
It is on the coaches to tailor the offense as well.

Look what Ravens did with Lamar. And Lamar was a much more accomplished passer coming out.

I wonder sometimes about offensive coordinators in the NFL. Everyone has/wants the young fresh mind, but are these guys experienced/confident enough to build an offense for the talent they have? Or do many of them have the only passing and rushing concepts they know, and can't adapt?
Yes, it is the coaches job to tailor an offense that best suits the talent he has. Not to force the talent to suit his desired offense.
It's silly they want AR to be a pocket passer at this point and never run. We don't want him to get injured so we'll prevent him from moving. Result ends up being the same, he mostly stands on the sidelines watching the defense play.
 
Against a tough Steelers defense I'm going to play Dalton in the only league I have AR until I see some improvements, or at least an easier opponent. As much as I( want AR to succeed, I would advise the same. If Steichen has any brains at all he will change the game plan to include AR on the move more. His life may depend on it against the Steelers.
 
Against a tough Steelers defense I'm going to play Dalton in the only league I have AR until I see some improvements, or at least an easier opponent. As much as I( want AR to succeed, I would advise the same. If Steichen has any brains at all he will change the game plan to include AR on the move more. His life may depend on it against the Steelers.
I'm not expecting much passing stats from Richardson again this weekend, but if he can punch in a TD or two, that could generate a reasonably good fantasy day.
 
Against a tough Steelers defense I'm going to play Dalton in the only league I have AR until I see some improvements, or at least an easier opponent. As much as I( want AR to succeed, I would advise the same. If Steichen has any brains at all he will change the game plan to include AR on the move more. His life may depend on it against the Steelers.
I'm not expecting much passing stats from Richardson again this weekend, but if he can punch in a TD or two, that could generate a reasonably good fantasy day.
That's the problem. Steichen hasn't been using AR in that capacity, but should. I believe I would have to see a change in game planning for AR before I trusted him in the running game. I believe we already know he's in for a hard day against the Steelers with regards to passing. This is why I believe the only chance for success is more run / pass option and that requires AR not sitting in the pocket. I wouldn't play him until I see a change in scheming AR.
 
Against a tough Steelers defense I'm going to play Dalton in the only league I have AR until I see some improvements, or at least an easier opponent. As much as I( want AR to succeed, I would advise the same. If Steichen has any brains at all he will change the game plan to include AR on the move more. His life may depend on it against the Steelers.
I wouldn’t expect Dalton to look great against a nasty Steelers D. The Steelers D is much better than than the LV D that Dalton carved up.
 
He’s coming off a bad game against the Steelers but was a QB1 over the first two weeks. We’re working with a small sample size but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s a top 10 in fantasy over the season. He’s worse in real life.

Jayden being better is not surprising at all.
Plays the Steelers THIS week
 
I am so confused.. Why is Dalton playing the Steelers D?

Anyways Steelers play the Colts this Sunday, and I have AR in one league, and I am thinking about sitting him for Fields or Minshew, with Tua still out.
 
Against a tough Steelers defense I'm going to play Dalton in the only league I have AR until I see some improvements, or at least an easier opponent. As much as I( want AR to succeed, I would advise the same. If Steichen has any brains at all he will change the game plan to include AR on the move more. His life may depend on it against the Steelers.
I wouldn’t expect Dalton to look great against a nasty Steelers D. The Steelers D is much better than than the LV D that Dalton carved up.
Dalton plays the Bengals. I was just mentioning who I'm going to play instead of AR against the Steelers.
 
Against a tough Steelers defense I'm going to play Dalton in the only league I have AR until I see some improvements, or at least an easier opponent. As much as I( want AR to succeed, I would advise the same. If Steichen has any brains at all he will change the game plan to include AR on the move more. His life may depend on it against the Steelers.
I wouldn’t expect Dalton to look great against a nasty Steelers D. The Steelers D is much better than than the LV D that Dalton carved up.
Dalton plays the Bengals. I was just mentioning who I'm going to play instead of AR against the Steelers.
Not going to lie, I went looking at ESPN to see if maybe Dalton was traded to the Colts.. I mean that would be so Panther to do that.
 
Against a tough Steelers defense I'm going to play Dalton in the only league I have AR until I see some improvements, or at least an easier opponent. As much as I( want AR to succeed, I would advise the same. If Steichen has any brains at all he will change the game plan to include AR on the move more. His life may depend on it against the Steelers.
I wouldn’t expect Dalton to look great against a nasty Steelers D. The Steelers D is much better than than the LV D that Dalton carved up.
Dalton plays the Bengals. I was just mentioning who I'm going to play instead of AR against the Steelers.
Not going to lie, I went looking at ESPN to see if maybe Dalton was traded to the Colts.. I mean that would be so Panther to do that.
Flacco is a fine backup should they play him.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top