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QB Anthony Richardson, IND (4 Viewers)
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
I think the correct question is which one is less embarrassing?
There is a case to be made that Richardson substantially improving would pull him near current Daniel Jones level while Daniel Jones likely won't revert to current Richardson level.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
It's easy to answer this. What it is, is they see the rushing upside and hopes he can do enough as a passer to not lose his job, thus helping their fantasy team. People feel the same way about Justin Fields. It's really that simple. As for me as a Colts fan, I couldn't care less about his fantasy possibilities, even as a one share owner. I want him to improve to make my favorite team better, period. I don't see it right now. Last year I was posting here that I thought that Steichen was using him wrong and should scheme him more in a run / pass offense. He's a lot more effective outside of the pocket. I saw a few games last year where he was more successful doing that. At the end of the day he has to be more accurate on short to intermediate throws. Because even if he's schemed correctly, it won't do any good if he can't hit his target.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Jones career stats: 64% completion rate, 84.3 QB Rating, 70TDs, 47 INTs.
Richardson career stats: 50% completion rate, 67.8 QB Rating, 11 TDs, 13 INTs.
Which QB would you start if you owned the Colts? Its not about Jones suddenly being all-pro, but he's WAY better than anything Richardson has ever shown. This isn't an opinion, its a statistical fact.
And Jones had some of the worst skilled position players and o-line any QB has had over the last 6 years. I don't think it's delusional that i expect him to win and keep the starting job and likely put up career best numbers since he has legit talent around him.
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Same camp and I think when we look back on this fantasy season when it's all said and done a lot he'll be a savior/league winner for a lot of QB needy fantasy teams. Maybe not to start the season, but eventually.
But will he help the Colts win?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
My take is that the organization wants Richardson to be the guy and in reality he is still incredibly young. I'm sure it varies from one club to another or from one staff to another, but I tend to think conventional wisdom in the NFL is that it often takes time for QBs to develop to something we might call a 'prime' where they are winning games and playing good QB ball. I think it's likely the NFL is willing to give more time to some of these guys than the FF community, though the NFL has shown they've been hedging away from that for years. A lot of guys don't really hit their stride until closer to late 20's maybe even 30 yo.
I am not saying Richardson will ever get there (or a guy like Fields) but I am saying I believe the Colts are going to give him as much of a chance as they can. If he is healthy enough which it sounds like he might be. And so then the FF takeaway is that 2025 may very well be in play and Richardson might be very undervalued at the moment. If he starts taking over the job throughout training camp & preseason I think we have to assume his ADP will rise at least somewhat dramatically.
I am not saying Richardson will ever get there (or a guy like Fields) but I am saying I believe the Colts are going to give him as much of a chance as they can. If he is healthy enough which it sounds like he might be. And so then the FF takeaway is that 2025 may very well be in play and Richardson might be very undervalued at the moment. If he starts taking over the job throughout training camp & preseason I think we have to assume his ADP will rise at least somewhat dramatically.
The accuracy is untenable. I honestly think he's a candidate to switch to TE at some point, like Tebow should have. Sub-50% in 2024 is embarrassing for a practice squad caliber guy, let alone a starter.
If Richardson got SIGNIFICANTLY more accurate, he'd maybe be on Fields level...maybe. Like, people talk about Josh Allen, but he's 1 in a 1000, and he was NEVER this inaccurate, despite FAR worse supporting talent. The Colts have had legit receiving weapons, and a good OL.
Truthfully, I think Will Levis has shown more than Richardson as far as being an NFL QB.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Considering his ADP is late 20’s, I assume there will be a slight increase if he is able to win the job.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Might very well be correct and I think that's what the smart money says. I think the Colts give him the chance to fall flat though and as gross as it is that might hold FF value.
Maybe more then Jones.
Two things can be true.
His accuracy needs work and it's grossly exaggerated and one of those reasons is his average depth of target and it blows my mind no one takes this into account.
His sample sizes both years are small but his rookie season when his ADOT was 8 yards he was a 59.5% completion % and when he jumped up to a league leading 12.2 he crumbled down to 47.7%
Also fair to point out when comparing him to Jones is even with a completion % that trails him considerably he actually averages more yards per attempt then Jones and that's because he's pushing the ball more. Context matters.
jm192
Footballguy
I don't even think Jones is necessarily good. Just less bad compared to Richardson.
jm192
Footballguy
I think a healthy extent of that ADOT is decision making and what he's comfortable with. A better QB is hitting those intermediate routes more often. That's not his strong suit. So he's taking those deeper shots hoping to hit one.
Flacco was able to come in and complete 65% of his passes with the Colts.
I think there's a debate about cause and effect here. Your post reads like the high ADOT is the cause and the low completion % is the effect.
I would argue his inability as a short to intermediate passer is the cause and the high AODT is the effect.
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Correct I'm saying that's a big part of it
Which is why I was backing up the claim above showing he did in fact hit those passes more frequently his rookie season when he was throwing shorter.
Whether your premise is correct or not it's pretty simple to me, when you throw deeper your completion % is usually going to be lower. That context is getting ignored, especially when comping him to Jones.
jm192
Footballguy
We can surely agree 84 throws is a small sample size.
And logically, NFL defenses figure out how to defend a guy with increasing exposure. My memory of last year was that he beat Houston over the top multiple times to open the season. And then NFL defenses dared him to throw it short.
I don't disagree. And it's one of the more weird parts of fantasy football.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Also remember the context that D Jones was throwing 'short' because the Giants GM brought in like 7 slot receivers and not outside alphas.
(HULK)
(Smash)
I mean, you can also say:
Jones career record: 24-45-1
Richardson career record: 8-7
Which QB would you start if you owned the Colts?
Basically, I find this kind of analysis to be pretty useless. Daniel Jones, on his best day, is completely mid. No coach or owner would be excited trotting him out there every week as a starter. Meanwhile, AR has an absolutely amazing tool set but plays like a chicken with his head cut off. On his worst day, AR is probably one of the worst QBs to ever play the game. But on his best day, AR can actually be transcendent. I don't know what the Indy leadership is really thinking about their options, and none of us do. We'll find out when the season plays out.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Yes. He has a dimension that Jones doesn't, and that dimension can tilt a field.
The question is, can he learn to stop doing the small things that blow it all up and cost games?
Well also after his neck injury he can't throw it deep very well.
My main thing I'm trying to say both when compared to each other and as stand alone players that just citing the completion % for both of these QB's is not telling the whole story for either of them, it's not quite apples to apples.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
or get off the 
Chaka
Footballguy
Has this actually happened?
darksideofoz
Footballguy
in high school
Hankmoody
Footballguy
If he didn't bring anything else to the table, sure. But the question is if the other things he brings create tolerance for lesser passing skills. You're willing to live with a few incompletions on first and second downs if he can rip off an eleven yarder on third and 10.
As an OSU homer I've lived through Terrell Pryor and JT Barrett so I've become hardened to this. Both were downright AWFUL passers but man, could they move the ball with their legs. It's like Barry Sanders - you keep giving him the ball for two yard gains behind that line because you know eventually he's gonna Barry one up.
If they can scheme him up and he can stay healthy he can still be a big problem for NFL defenses.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
But that is the thing with Richardson I've been trying to tell people for years now. Compared to Richardson; Pryor and Barrett were AMAZING passers. If Richardson is the baseline, Barrett/Pryor may as well be Montana in comparison.
That's the thing that keeps getting overlooked with all of these name drops. Pryor and Barrett aren't comps as passers. They're too good.
Richardson is a worse passer than Tebow. By a lot.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Nah, he may or may not be more inaccurate but he can actually physically throw a football. Tebow cannot. Tebow prayed and God intervened occasionally and helped put the ball out there.
Chaka
Footballguy
Dude has yet to finish four consecutive games in the NFL. He's only started four consecutive once and was out of the fourth after his fourth pass attempt.
He started 2, 2, 4, 2, 3 & 2 consecutive games before missing time after each.
Bottom line is he may have a ton of measurables and physical potential but he can't stay on the field. It has been that way dating back to high school. There is no reason to think he will suddenly string together 17 games. I would put his o/u games started at 9.
He started 2, 2, 4, 2, 3 & 2 consecutive games before missing time after each.
Bottom line is he may have a ton of measurables and physical potential but he can't stay on the field. It has been that way dating back to high school. There is no reason to think he will suddenly string together 17 games. I would put his o/u games started at 9.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You would think someone with that size and strength wouldn’t be so fragile.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't. I think he is prone to injury on a genetic level. Weaker tendons, weaker ligaments, muscles prone to strain etc.
And that's giving him the benefit of doubt that he's not simply soft and won't play through pain.
I think his NFL injuries are very legit and I find that persistent shoulder problem to be a huge red flag.
There is no reason for the Colts to bail on him at this point but, personally I think I would bet with all takers that he won't get extended or franchise tagged.
Colts GM refuses to ‘flush’ Anthony Richardson, still believes QB can be ‘really good’
That article may not be accessible to all and if so it's basically covered in this thread:
That article may not be accessible to all and if so it's basically covered in this thread:
ffmail4me
Footballguy
And the Colts have one of the best offensive lines which gives their QB more time to have receivers run deeper routes thus the higher yard per attempt. Daniel Jones line was so awful with the Giants that he wasn't afforded that same time Richardson had. And the fact that his completion rate was still significantly higher despite the awful line and lack of alpha talent at the skill positions is also context that matters.
I disagree on the Colts line being remotely as good as you say and individually Richardson might be elite at sack avoidance.
And I'll reiterate that AR despite throwing for a far less percentage of completions throws more yards per attempt.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
The colts used to have an elite oline. Not so much anymore. I agree with previous poster.
Nelson is still elite.
However after just looking up a few rankings I see a lot have the colts up high in the top 10. Interior is just a weakness/unknown that seems like such a projection to me.
Chaka
Footballguy
As @menobrown will point out; context matters and Richardson has a very high ADOT which helps forgive some (not all) of his low completion %. But, with his inability to complete an NFL standard minimum of passes his y/a is 6.9 on his career and that reality matters as much as the context of his ADOT. Probably more. Pushing the ball down the field is great but it matters a lot less when you can't convert 3 & 4 on a regular basis.
He seems decent at avoiding sacks but he has put up far too little film to call him elite at anything.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
No, they weren't. Barrett didn't get a cup of coffee in the NFL at the position and Pryor's career stats were 175/311 for 56% completion with 6.4 Y/A, nearly all of it in 2013 (39 total attempts in 8 other NFL seasons). It would be interesting as heck if Pryor were playing in today's NFL with teams re-designing their offenses around the running ability of a thoroughbred like Pryor was.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Completion Percentage
Tebow: 68%
Pryor: 65%
Barrett: 65%
Richardson: 53%
Y/A
Tebow: 9.2
Pryor: 8.6
Barrett: 8.2
Richardson: 7.8
AY/A
Tebow: 9.84
Barrett: 9.02
Pryor: 8.72
Richardson: 7.6
Rating
Tebow: 162.4
Barrett: 160.1
Prior: 157.9
Richardson: 131.0
These are each of their numbers their final year of college.
I'm telling you, as much as people say that Richardson has horrific accuracy, they are underrating his struggles with accuracy. I've brought this up several times in this thread, when Richardson would throw around to warm up at Florida, just over on the sidelines where the QBs all stand 10 yards apart and throw back and forth to each other, he could not consistently throw the ball to the other QB standing still 10 yards away. It was like watching a little league pitcher warm-up in baseball where the catcher is constantly having to go and fetch balls that get past him.
Tebow they tried to change his throwing motion in the NFL and completely jacked him up. In college, Tebow was a zillion times more accurate than Richardson, even though Tebow's accuracy was not good in a vacuum. But he could throw a 10 yard in to Percy Harvin over and over again, something Richardson has never been able to do with even middle school levels of consistency.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I don't know why you keep quoting me with Tebow, I have never brought him up. I've also never said Richardson's accuracy was any good, only that with everything else he brings they might be able to work around it given his other extraordinary skills. He needs to progress, obviously, but so did Lamar Jackson early on. BAL found a way to buy time for Lamar to develop, the question is if IND will, and if AR can pull it off. But the talent is there to use to try to buy that time.
warpig33
Footballguy
The Colts braintrust screwed AR over. All the talk on radio and with fans was that he had untapped potential but would need to be brought along slowly...sit that first year and learn. But nooooo, Ballard and Steichen decided to roll his unprepared backside out there game 1 in his rookie season. Then he gets hurt and instead of focusing on fundamentals, he's focused on physical therapy and trying to get healthy. Both Ballard and Steichen should be fired DURING this season when the Colts underperform again. What they did was counter productive and shows their ignorance. I'm rooting for AR. Seems like a good dude. But this front office screwed him and screwed themselves. Maybe AR ends up with another team soon and they get him in the class room and work with a good QB coach. That is not happening here in Indy. And now here he is rushing back from an injury AGAIN because he senses the urgency. I really don't think he is ready yet (post injury). But I'm not a doctor in real life and I didn't stay in a holiday inn express recently. Just feel bad for this kid. He would be fun to watch if he was fully healthy and the light bulb goes on for him.
Chaka
Footballguy
Does he have "extraordinary skills"? He's a good runner, not a great one. He doesn't come close to Vick, Lamar or, probably Jayden (I think Daniels is great but I need to see him do it again).
He's probably on par with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, both very good runners in their own right but they wouldn't be able to make it at the NFL level if they didn't also demonstrate growth in the passing game.
Michael Vick is really the only QB who had any kind of success despite very poor accuracy and I don't think Richardson holds a candle to Vick athletically. Richardson is fast, Vick could fly.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You can tell some here have not seen Richardson play much. We are seeing defenses of him because of things like ADOT and his age. But in a league where open windows are measured in feet, and often enough in just inches, we can see Richardson missing his target by yards at times. I guess the benefit is that he throws less interceptions because passes are nowhere near anyone who could catch the ball, but some of his misses are on the Pop Warner level of anticipation and accuracy. Missing a 5 yd in route by 4 feet ain’t gonna cut it in this league, son.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's exactly my point. AR won't either, but he still has (might have) time. Those guys did because their coaching staffs (and player performance/progress) bought them time. And yes, they were extraordinary from day one with their movement skills. Not the pure speed/athleticism of Lamar/Vick sure, but deceptiveness, smooth movement, balance, economy of movement, they were extremely efficient runners.
I think the entire reason IND drafted him was because of Steichen's work with Hurts and the plan was exactly that - play a balanced/diverse offense to buy AR time to improve as a passer. He hasn't, he may never pull it off, but there's a road still available where he could if they can get him on the field long enough.
(HULK)
(Smash)
I feel like Richardson's flaws are areas that can actually improve though. His arm strength is top end. His deep accuracy is pretty dang good. His mid to short accuracy is among the worst ever, but shouldn't that be fixable? His ability to read the field is not great also, but that's another area where improvement is possible.
You can't improve a QB's height, and you can only barely improve things like mobility, speed, and arm strength. On these fixed factors, he's all 10s. I'm not sure he can ever get his non-fixed factors up to the point where he functions, but if he does, he can tear it up. He's still very young, he's still very inexperienced. Can he grow into a QB? I'm nowhere near ready to say, "nope", even though the ultimate answer may be nope, I think it's far from certain as of today.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Checks notes: Richardson is currently a winning QB with a 9-8 lifetime NFL record.
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