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QB Brock Purdy, SF (1 Viewer)

Mr. Irrelevant leads his team to the NFC Championship his first season and to the Super Bowl the next. You Niners fans are going to win the big one with him eventually.
 
Mr. Irrelevant leads his team to the NFC Championship his first season and to the Super Bowl the next. You Niners fans are going to win the big one with him eventually.

Well as soon as Purdy needs to get paid they'll be a lot less likely. So better be soon
 
I thought Purdy played a very good game Sunday. SF had some unforeseen breaks go against them, nothing to do with Brock’s play.
 
I may be way off on this, but I think Purdy is going to be over drafted fantasy-wise. Last year, his efficiency was way up there. He finished 20th in pass attempts, yet was 5th in passing yards and 3rd in passing yards. Of his pass attempts, 7.1% were TDs, which led the league by a fair margin (Dak was 2nd at 6.1%).

Not to say Purdy isn't an outstanding NFL QB - obviously he is. But with very little rushing floor, I'm not sure that his fantasy stats will follow as much again, even if he continues be a top-tier NFL QB.
 
I may be way off on this, but I think Purdy is going to be over drafted fantasy-wise. Last year, his efficiency was way up there. He finished 20th in pass attempts, yet was 5th in passing yards and 3rd in passing yards. Of his pass attempts, 7.1% were TDs, which led the league by a fair margin (Dak was 2nd at 6.1%).

Not to say Purdy isn't an outstanding NFL QB - obviously he is. But with very little rushing floor, I'm not sure that his fantasy stats will follow as much again, even if he continues be a top-tier NFL QB.
I get what you're saying, but will counter a bit with I think SF throws the ball more in 2024. Purdy will have a full training camp and a year under his belt as the undisputed starter. He was coming off the injury last camp and there were questions if he would be ready to go. No such questions this year. Also think Shanahan fully trusts Purdy at this point and will open up the offense as a result. Plus, he shouldn't beat up CMC as much this year. McCaffrey is the kind of back who can excel into the age 30 realm if they monitor his touches a bit more.
 
I may be way off on this, but I think Purdy is going to be over drafted fantasy-wise. Last year, his efficiency was way up there. He finished 20th in pass attempts, yet was 5th in passing yards and 3rd in passing yards. Of his pass attempts, 7.1% were TDs, which led the league by a fair margin (Dak was 2nd at 6.1%).

Not to say Purdy isn't an outstanding NFL QB - obviously he is. But with very little rushing floor, I'm not sure that his fantasy stats will follow as much again, even if he continues be a top-tier NFL QB.
I get what you're saying, but will counter a bit with I think SF throws the ball more in 2024. Purdy will have a full training camp and a year under his belt as the undisputed starter. He was coming off the injury last camp and there were questions if he would be ready to go. No such questions this year. Also think Shanahan fully trusts Purdy at this point and will open up the offense as a result. Plus, he shouldn't beat up CMC as much this year. McCaffrey is the kind of back who can excel into the age 30 realm if they monitor his touches a bit more.
You could be right, although I'm always a bit hesitant relying on fantasy production from guys that don't use their legs much. From a passing standpoint, you need either massive efficiency like Purdy had, or a bombs away offense like a Cousins has typically had.
 
I may be way off on this, but I think Purdy is going to be over drafted fantasy-wise. Last year, his efficiency was way up there. He finished 20th in pass attempts, yet was 5th in passing yards and 3rd in passing yards. Of his pass attempts, 7.1% were TDs, which led the league by a fair margin (Dak was 2nd at 6.1%).

Not to say Purdy isn't an outstanding NFL QB - obviously he is. But with very little rushing floor, I'm not sure that his fantasy stats will follow as much again, even if he continues be a top-tier NFL QB.
I get what you're saying, but will counter a bit with I think SF throws the ball more in 2024. Purdy will have a full training camp and a year under his belt as the undisputed starter. He was coming off the injury last camp and there were questions if he would be ready to go. No such questions this year. Also think Shanahan fully trusts Purdy at this point and will open up the offense as a result. Plus, he shouldn't beat up CMC as much this year. McCaffrey is the kind of back who can excel into the age 30 realm if they monitor his touches a bit more.
You could be right, although I'm always a bit hesitant relying on fantasy production from guys that don't use their legs much. From a passing standpoint, you need either massive efficiency like Purdy had, or a bombs away offense like a Cousins has typically had.
Agree, but Purdy is being drafted in the 10-12 range from what I've seen. I think that's about right for the reasons I stated. He won't throw as much as other QBs, but I think he will throw more than 2023 and his efficiency should continue to be high in a Shanahan offense. I also suspect they add another WR in round 1 or 2 as they prepare for Deebo leaving next year (I think Aiyuk stays).
 
This might be a bit bold, but I think Brock Purdy is going to continue to exceed expectations. I think SF keeps upping his passing workload as they get more and more confident in him, and while he's not gonna be throwing among the league leaders, I also don't expect him to be near the bottom in attempts either. League average, with his efficiency, is gonna lead to some strong results.

Right now, I have Purdy QB6, and I think he's a sneaky bet to lead the NFL in TD passes.
 
This might be a bit bold, but I think Brock Purdy is going to continue to exceed expectations. I think SF keeps upping his passing workload as they get more and more confident in him, and while he's not gonna be throwing among the league leaders, I also don't expect him to be near the bottom in attempts either. League average, with his efficiency, is gonna lead to some strong results.

Right now, I have Purdy QB6, and I think he's a sneaky bet to lead the NFL in TD passes.
I think the team will put more of a burden on him this year for the reason you state. Also, they need to figure out if he's a guy worth paying $50m/year to, so I think they'll want some more data on what he can do when the team is relying on him more and less on his playmakers. They may not have a choice in that regard as CMC, Kittle, and Deebo are all safe bets to miss more time this year than they did last year.
 
I think the efficiency has to come back to earth to an extent. He's been unholy.

Last year
Nearly 10 yards/attempt.
A TD on 7% of his passes

Patrick Mahommes: TD on 4.5% of passes.
Josh Allen: TD on 5% of passes
Dak was closer at 6.1%.

They may pass it a little more. But I think the efficiency has to come down. I think he'll still have a really high floor. I've got him at QB11, but the gap between QB5-QB11 feels super slim.
 
I think the efficiency has to come back to earth to an extent. He's been unholy.

Last year
Nearly 10 yards/attempt.
A TD on 7% of his passes

Patrick Mahommes: TD on 4.5% of passes.
Josh Allen: TD on 5% of passes
Dak was closer at 6.1%.
Pass attempts (and tds) in 2023:

Mahomes 597 (27 tds)
Prescott 590 (36 tds)
Allen 579 (29 tds)

Purdy 444 (31 tds)

Only Prescott (36 tds) and Love (32 tds on 579 attempts) had more TD passes than Purdy. That is pretty wild.

Not bad for a game manager that is only good because of his supporting cast. 😉
 
I have him at 6% TD ratio, 8.5 YPA. Still high, but what's changed? The only thing might be defenses catching on which seemed to happen to an extent late last year.

Also projecting the Niners to pass slightly more than last year, 480 for Purdy. Not much of a change because the last couple years the Niners have had a consistent Pass/Run ratio.
 
I think the efficiency has to come back to earth to an extent. He's been unholy.

Last year
Nearly 10 yards/attempt.
A TD on 7% of his passes

Patrick Mahommes: TD on 4.5% of passes.
Josh Allen: TD on 5% of passes
Dak was closer at 6.1%.
Pass attempts (and tds) in 2023:

Mahomes 597 (27 tds)
Prescott 590 (36 tds)
Allen 579 (29 tds)

Purdy 444 (31 tds)

Only Prescott (36 tds) and Love (32 tds on 579 attempts) had more TD passes than Purdy. That is pretty wild.

Not bad for a game manager that is only good because of his supporting cast. 😉
I'm certainly not here to tear him down or say he's just a game manager.

I do think it speaks more to being an outlier than where he'll be his entire career. I don't think he can continue to throw more TD's on less passes than Mahommes, Allen, etc.
 
I think the efficiency has to come back to earth to an extent. He's been unholy.

Last year
Nearly 10 yards/attempt.
A TD on 7% of his passes

Patrick Mahommes: TD on 4.5% of passes.
Josh Allen: TD on 5% of passes
Dak was closer at 6.1%.
Pass attempts (and tds) in 2023:

Mahomes 597 (27 tds)
Prescott 590 (36 tds)
Allen 579 (29 tds)

Purdy 444 (31 tds)

Only Prescott (36 tds) and Love (32 tds on 579 attempts) had more TD passes than Purdy. That is pretty wild.

Not bad for a game manager that is only good because of his supporting cast. 😉
I'm certainly not here to tear him down or say he's just a game manager.

I do think it speaks more to being an outlier than where he'll be his entire career. I don't think he can continue to throw more TD's on less passes than Mahommes, Allen, etc.

Has anyone analyzed why this was such an outlier? Is it just a combination of Shanahan's system, great receivers/CMAC, and Purdy's ability? Because other teams have capable offensive players and didn't put up efficiency numbers like this. Defenses as a whole have been getting really good at shutting down long offensive plays, so it's even more strange to have such an outlier.

Or do they just need to start work now on Purdy's HOF bust?
 
I think the efficiency has to come back to earth to an extent. He's been unholy.

Last year
Nearly 10 yards/attempt.
A TD on 7% of his passes

Patrick Mahommes: TD on 4.5% of passes.
Josh Allen: TD on 5% of passes
Dak was closer at 6.1%.
Pass attempts (and tds) in 2023:

Mahomes 597 (27 tds)
Prescott 590 (36 tds)
Allen 579 (29 tds)

Purdy 444 (31 tds)

Only Prescott (36 tds) and Love (32 tds on 579 attempts) had more TD passes than Purdy. That is pretty wild.

Not bad for a game manager that is only good because of his supporting cast. 😉
I'm certainly not here to tear him down or say he's just a game manager.

I do think it speaks more to being an outlier than where he'll be his entire career. I don't think he can continue to throw more TD's on less passes than Mahommes, Allen, etc.
My game manager comment wasn't directed towards you, it was more toward the general consensus of the non believers.
 
2016 Matt Ryan with Shanahan 373/534 for 4944, 9.26 per attempt, 38 TD 7 INT.
This is what Shanahan does. There is no "back to Earth", "regression" or "outlier".
2021 noodle armed Jimmy G. 15 games 301/441. 8.64 per attempt 20 TD to 12 INT.
Only QB with a per higher attempt was Joe Burrow with 8.81

2022 Jimmy G(11 games) goes below 8.0 in yards per(7.91) with 4 starters above 8.0
Mahomes(8.1), Tua(8.87), Hurts(8.05)P, and Purdy(8.08), 9 games first year starting.

Does 9+ yards per repeat? doubtful. 8+ per attempt is the "norm" for Shanahan with
only a handful of other QB's doing it.
 

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