FarFromHome
Footballguy
I will say that all the haters have to toe to line to Purdy being good if he beats Mahomes today.
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QB Brock Purdy, SF (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Mr. Irrelevant leads his team to the NFC Championship his first season and to the Super Bowl the next. You Niners fans are going to win the big one with him eventually.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Well as soon as Purdy needs to get paid they'll be a lot less likely. So better be soon
FairWarning
Footballguy
I thought Purdy played a very good game Sunday. SF had some unforeseen breaks go against them, nothing to do with Brock’s play.
zamboni
Footballguy
I may be way off on this, but I think Purdy is going to be over drafted fantasy-wise. Last year, his efficiency was way up there. He finished 20th in pass attempts, yet was 5th in passing yards and 3rd in passing yards. Of his pass attempts, 7.1% were TDs, which led the league by a fair margin (Dak was 2nd at 6.1%).
Not to say Purdy isn't an outstanding NFL QB - obviously he is. But with very little rushing floor, I'm not sure that his fantasy stats will follow as much again, even if he continues be a top-tier NFL QB.
Not to say Purdy isn't an outstanding NFL QB - obviously he is. But with very little rushing floor, I'm not sure that his fantasy stats will follow as much again, even if he continues be a top-tier NFL QB.
efactor
Footballguy
I get what you're saying, but will counter a bit with I think SF throws the ball more in 2024. Purdy will have a full training camp and a year under his belt as the undisputed starter. He was coming off the injury last camp and there were questions if he would be ready to go. No such questions this year. Also think Shanahan fully trusts Purdy at this point and will open up the offense as a result. Plus, he shouldn't beat up CMC as much this year. McCaffrey is the kind of back who can excel into the age 30 realm if they monitor his touches a bit more.
zamboni
Footballguy
You could be right, although I'm always a bit hesitant relying on fantasy production from guys that don't use their legs much. From a passing standpoint, you need either massive efficiency like Purdy had, or a bombs away offense like a Cousins has typically had.
efactor
Footballguy
Agree, but Purdy is being drafted in the 10-12 range from what I've seen. I think that's about right for the reasons I stated. He won't throw as much as other QBs, but I think he will throw more than 2023 and his efficiency should continue to be high in a Shanahan offense. I also suspect they add another WR in round 1 or 2 as they prepare for Deebo leaving next year (I think Aiyuk stays).
Wingnut
Footballguy
Purdy throwing first pitch at tonight's Giants - Dodger game.
SF Giants Twitter:
"Throwing out tonight’s first pitch: QB1
#BayAreaUnite | @49ers"
SF Giants Twitter:
"Throwing out tonight’s first pitch: QB1
#BayAreaUnite | @49ers"
This might be a bit bold, but I think Brock Purdy is going to continue to exceed expectations. I think SF keeps upping his passing workload as they get more and more confident in him, and while he's not gonna be throwing among the league leaders, I also don't expect him to be near the bottom in attempts either. League average, with his efficiency, is gonna lead to some strong results.
Right now, I have Purdy QB6, and I think he's a sneaky bet to lead the NFL in TD passes.
Right now, I have Purdy QB6, and I think he's a sneaky bet to lead the NFL in TD passes.
I think the team will put more of a burden on him this year for the reason you state. Also, they need to figure out if he's a guy worth paying $50m/year to, so I think they'll want some more data on what he can do when the team is relying on him more and less on his playmakers. They may not have a choice in that regard as CMC, Kittle, and Deebo are all safe bets to miss more time this year than they did last year.
jm192
Footballguy
I think the efficiency has to come back to earth to an extent. He's been unholy.
Last year
Nearly 10 yards/attempt.
A TD on 7% of his passes
Patrick Mahommes: TD on 4.5% of passes.
Josh Allen: TD on 5% of passes
Dak was closer at 6.1%.
They may pass it a little more. But I think the efficiency has to come down. I think he'll still have a really high floor. I've got him at QB11, but the gap between QB5-QB11 feels super slim.
Last year
Nearly 10 yards/attempt.
A TD on 7% of his passes
Patrick Mahommes: TD on 4.5% of passes.
Josh Allen: TD on 5% of passes
Dak was closer at 6.1%.
They may pass it a little more. But I think the efficiency has to come down. I think he'll still have a really high floor. I've got him at QB11, but the gap between QB5-QB11 feels super slim.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Pass attempts (and tds) in 2023:
Mahomes 597 (27 tds)
Prescott 590 (36 tds)
Allen 579 (29 tds)
Purdy 444 (31 tds)
Only Prescott (36 tds) and Love (32 tds on 579 attempts) had more TD passes than Purdy. That is pretty wild.
Not bad for a game manager that is only good because of his supporting cast.
Scoresman
Footballguy
I have him at 6% TD ratio, 8.5 YPA. Still high, but what's changed? The only thing might be defenses catching on which seemed to happen to an extent late last year.
Also projecting the Niners to pass slightly more than last year, 480 for Purdy. Not much of a change because the last couple years the Niners have had a consistent Pass/Run ratio.
Also projecting the Niners to pass slightly more than last year, 480 for Purdy. Not much of a change because the last couple years the Niners have had a consistent Pass/Run ratio.
jm192
Footballguy
I'm certainly not here to tear him down or say he's just a game manager.Pass attempts (and tds) in 2023:
Mahomes 597 (27 tds)
Prescott 590 (36 tds)
Allen 579 (29 tds)
Purdy 444 (31 tds)
Only Prescott (36 tds) and Love (32 tds on 579 attempts) had more TD passes than Purdy. That is pretty wild.
Not bad for a game manager that is only good because of his supporting cast.
I do think it speaks more to being an outlier than where he'll be his entire career. I don't think he can continue to throw more TD's on less passes than Mahommes, Allen, etc.
Scoresman
Footballguy
I'm certainly not here to tear him down or say he's just a game manager.Pass attempts (and tds) in 2023:
Mahomes 597 (27 tds)
Prescott 590 (36 tds)
Allen 579 (29 tds)
Purdy 444 (31 tds)
Only Prescott (36 tds) and Love (32 tds on 579 attempts) had more TD passes than Purdy. That is pretty wild.
Not bad for a game manager that is only good because of his supporting cast.
I do think it speaks more to being an outlier than where he'll be his entire career. I don't think he can continue to throw more TD's on less passes than Mahommes, Allen, etc.
Has anyone analyzed why this was such an outlier? Is it just a combination of Shanahan's system, great receivers/CMAC, and Purdy's ability? Because other teams have capable offensive players and didn't put up efficiency numbers like this. Defenses as a whole have been getting really good at shutting down long offensive plays, so it's even more strange to have such an outlier.
Or do they just need to start work now on Purdy's HOF bust?
Wingnut
Footballguy
My game manager comment wasn't directed towards you, it was more toward the general consensus of the non believers.I'm certainly not here to tear him down or say he's just a game manager.Pass attempts (and tds) in 2023:
Mahomes 597 (27 tds)
Prescott 590 (36 tds)
Allen 579 (29 tds)
Purdy 444 (31 tds)
Only Prescott (36 tds) and Love (32 tds on 579 attempts) had more TD passes than Purdy. That is pretty wild.
Not bad for a game manager that is only good because of his supporting cast.
I do think it speaks more to being an outlier than where he'll be his entire career. I don't think he can continue to throw more TD's on less passes than Mahommes, Allen, etc.
nightmare
Footballguy
2016 Matt Ryan with Shanahan 373/534 for 4944, 9.26 per attempt, 38 TD 7 INT.
This is what Shanahan does. There is no "back to Earth", "regression" or "outlier".
2021 noodle armed Jimmy G. 15 games 301/441. 8.64 per attempt 20 TD to 12 INT.
Only QB with a per higher attempt was Joe Burrow with 8.81
2022 Jimmy G(11 games) goes below 8.0 in yards per(7.91) with 4 starters above 8.0
Mahomes(8.1), Tua(8.87), Hurts(8.05)P, and Purdy(8.08), 9 games first year starting.
Does 9+ yards per repeat? doubtful. 8+ per attempt is the "norm" for Shanahan with
only a handful of other QB's doing it.
This is what Shanahan does. There is no "back to Earth", "regression" or "outlier".
2021 noodle armed Jimmy G. 15 games 301/441. 8.64 per attempt 20 TD to 12 INT.
Only QB with a per higher attempt was Joe Burrow with 8.81
2022 Jimmy G(11 games) goes below 8.0 in yards per(7.91) with 4 starters above 8.0
Mahomes(8.1), Tua(8.87), Hurts(8.05)P, and Purdy(8.08), 9 games first year starting.
Does 9+ yards per repeat? doubtful. 8+ per attempt is the "norm" for Shanahan with
only a handful of other QB's doing it.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Very possible, he will need Aiyuk to settle in order to achieve this though.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
One WR won't make the difference. Someone else will step up.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am on the side of Aiyuk makes a difference. It may not show due to him not being the typically heavily targeted WR1, but him and Purdy have a good chemistry and I think the results would be negatively impacted if he is not on the field. Hopefully a non-issue come week one.
Agreed. I have Purdy in dynasty and I would 100% be substantially more confident in Purdy for fantasy this season as soon as this Aiyuk business gets behind us.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
And this is why Matt Ryan shouldn’t have been the MVP that year. Because the stats were more about the system than about him.
How do you quantify that, though? Realistically, isn’t every “system” that a MVP-caliber quarterback is in “good” for that player? I mean, the Ravens have catered their whole offense around Lamar’s unique skill set.
I just think when you start explaining away a player’s success because of the “system”, that opens up a lot of grey area. Would Rodgers have won back-to-back MVP’s without Davante Adams? Probably not.
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Do you think that's too low, too high or is that where you think he belongs? Seems about where he belongs to me.
habsfan
Footballguy
I might pull the trigger a smidge higher than that but I think I'm in one of those leagues where he won't fall that far. I lucked into him last year behind Burrows but he's out into the light now.
I think that's a little low. I have a hard time putting Murray and Richardson in front of him. It's not so where where he's ranked, it's that there's little variance in where he's drafted. Guys like Love, Dak, Burrow, Richardson, and Stroud are all over the map in the order they are drafted. It's strange you don't see that with Purdy.
Chaka
Footballguy
Personally I have Love, Dak & Burrow over Purdy with little question. Too much history of production and receiving talent. Love is a bigger question but he appears to be the real deal and absolutely the focal point of that offense. Adding Jacobs is pretty much a push over A.Jones IMO, I don't see LaFleur suddenly becoming a true ground'n'pound coach.
Stroud obviously has a short history but, again, the offense really seems to run through him and adding Diggs gives him an amazing receiving corps.
I want to put Richardson over Purdy but it's a total coin toss. Richardson clearly has QB1, and #1 fantasy player overall upside. His per play production was ridiculous. But, his injury history dating back to high school is terrible, like epically bad. Guarantee 17 from him (obviously impossible) and I'll take him #1 overall in my SF league.
There is zero chance Purdy has Richardson's upside. I doubt he has 40 TD upside, let alone 45+, which a #1 overall player at the QB position needs in a SF league. Even if Aiyuk gets signed immediately after I hit "Post Reply".
On my draft day, Saturday of Labor Day weekend, they will likely go off the board near each other (Stroud, Richardson & Purdy. I take Love above all of them right now) and it will absolutely come down to risk appetite.
ATM, with the Aiyuk situation unresolved, I probably go with Stroud, Richardson, Purdy.
What I find so interesting that you can find people who will put most of these guys in the top 5, but not Purdy. From FBG high rank:
Purdy - 10
Dak - 2
Burrow - 3
Richardson - 2
Stroud - 5
Murray - 5
Love - 5
Daniels - 10
Lawrence - 5
Williams - 9
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
Chaka had to return to annoy @Deamon in the O/D contest!
Chaka
Footballguy
I would never quit you guys. My target was always 8/1 but, as with many things in my life I was premature.
Just ask my wife.
Chaka
Footballguy
My top #5-ish QBs...okay more like those I unquestionably ahead of Purdy...?
In no particular order: Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Hurts...Herbert...Dak???
In the conversation with Purdy but nowhere in top 5 talk in my world: Goff, Love, Richardson*, Deshaun*, Tua, Stroud, Purdy, Murray, Lawrence (again, in no particular order). It's a big boondoggle.
*These two should be viewed as having legitimate #1 overall QB potential IMO.
Wingnut
Footballguy
He had 33 total TDs last season (31 pass, 2 rush). If he takes a step this season, 40 total TDs isn't that far fetched IMO.
Chaka
Footballguy
Get Aiyuk on the field and we'll talk.
He's not a mobile QB in the sense that can be relied upon to supplement his passing totals with high rush TD & yardage totals. He is mobile in that he has great pockets presence and can slide step and move literally and still be effective. But he's a lot closer to Tom Brady for mobility than...any truly mobile QB.
But, if you want to debate that he should be in a similar tier to Joe Burrow, who has similar mobility I'm wide open to that. Burrow does get a bump for his rep that Purdy should also have, arguably.
ETA: probably ditto for Dak at this point as he is running a lot less, and less effectively at this point in his career.
But, in no way should anyone rely on Purdy to supplement his TD totals with more than two rush TDs.
