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QB Hendon Hooker, DET (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Man. Bucs have met with him a lot.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I like Hooker. I like DTR more. Especially on risk/reward comp'd to the top QBs. And I might honestly like Jake Haener better than both if he lasts super late, considering again risk/reward. Stetson Bennett late is another lurking dawg. If I were needy team, I'd consider skipping the Big Four, instead taking two of the above four later.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Pre-Draft Concerns Swirling Around Hendon Hooker
Prior to the 2022 season, I had Hooker just outside of the first round based on his 2021 game film. Based on 2022 game film, I put a first-round grade on Hooker and moved him onto our First Round Mock Value Board.
...We haven’t seen Hooker play in a real game situation since tearing his ACL in late November, and a big part of his game was being a physically elusive runner.
Will Hooker be the same player in live game situations post-injury?
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Some legitimate concerns shared in the rest of the article. Worth the read.
Prior to the 2022 season, I had Hooker just outside of the first round based on his 2021 game film. Based on 2022 game film, I put a first-round grade on Hooker and moved him onto our First Round Mock Value Board.
...We haven’t seen Hooker play in a real game situation since tearing his ACL in late November, and a big part of his game was being a physically elusive runner.
Will Hooker be the same player in live game situations post-injury?
----------------------
Some legitimate concerns shared in the rest of the article. Worth the read.
Just my opinion, but I like both Mayfield and Trask more.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I’m hoping it’s a “just in case he falls to us in round 2” situation. Seems like a bad choice considering how good the QB class next year appears to be.
Good chance the Mayfield/Trask experiment has them firmly in the top 5.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Just watched the 33rdTeam segment with Mike Martz just gushing over Hendon Hooker. It is a real eye opener for me. I could now see why NFL could prefer him over AR.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
He also said Zach Wilson would be elite.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Kevin Cole
@KevinCole___
Two stats that are fairly stable from CFB to NFL and give an idea of how QBs execute under stress are pressured scrambles and sacks.
Hendon Hooker didn't throw a pass on > 50% of his pressured dropbacks, similar to Fields and Mariota, both have had elevated sack rates in the NFL
LINK to chart
@KevinCole___
Two stats that are fairly stable from CFB to NFL and give an idea of how QBs execute under stress are pressured scrambles and sacks.
Hendon Hooker didn't throw a pass on > 50% of his pressured dropbacks, similar to Fields and Mariota, both have had elevated sack rates in the NFL
LINK to chart
Chaka
Footballguy
Maybe but he has all the physical traits you want from a starting QB and even though he played in a gimmicky offense he excelled in it, which is all you can ask of him. Is it any worse than playing in a non gimmicky offense and being mediocre like Richardson & Levis? Those two will probably be taken top 10 (I could see Levis fall to the teens or early 20s) because they appear to have franchise QB upside (agree or disagree that is the perception). So if you can get a guy with similar potential with a late first it seems like a shot worth taking. You have to take your shot on unicorns in the NFL. Especially considering teams picking that late are better franchises giving any QB they draft some time to develop without the pressure of being the starter.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I agree. Whoever gets Hooker is going to be paying for it
-OZ-
Footballguy
There’s a good chance of busting with Hooker.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
He doesn't have anywhere near the traits of Levis and Richardson. He is also old and injured
Chaka
Footballguy
Maybe but many people completely disagree with that notion. He is older and coming off an injury, which is why his draft stock is depressed. But he is still being talked about as being a better prospect than several of the QBs currently expected to be drafted ahead of him.
He has size, mobility, a strong arm, experience and production at a high level. There are knocks to be sure but there are tons of knocks on Richardson and Levis too.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Nobody is comparing his physical traits to Levis or Richardson. He isn't even remotely in their ballpark
Chaka
Footballguy
I never said that so... okay?
I think this is way overblown. It is not like he is a RB or WR. QB's last a lot longer age wise. I don't even see why his age is of any concern at all.
I don't think it hurts his longevity, frankly no team should care about 5+ years at any position. Its because it, A) likely points to less upside from the player he currently is, and B) means he was an adult often playing against teenagers. There have been many examples of older players coming into the NFL, and very few have panned out.
Fully expecting Hooker to be a top-40 pick, but personally, he's probably in my 75-100 range.
Chaka
Footballguy
Interesting point. I am sure there are others but the only one that comes to mind is Brandon Weeden. Was he really 29 during his first NFL season?
Hooker will be in his age 25 season this year, who are his age comps for QBs entering the NFL?
Weeden is probably the most famous example because of just how old he was, but some other highly drafted or productive college QBs (age 24+) include:
Kenny Pickett (2022 Steelers 1st, turned 24 before week 1, time will tell if that ends up being a mistake or not)
Will Grier (2019 Panthers 3rd, was 24 and had an excellent senior season, and was the reason I started to value age, because he had 1st round tape)
Ryan Tannehill (2012 Dolphins 1st, was 24 before week 1, probably the biggest success of this group)
Colt McCoy (2010 Browns 3rd)
Colt Brennan (2008 Washington 6th, but was a Heisman candidate)
John Beck (2007 Miami 2nd)
Charlie Whitehurst (2006 Chargers 3rd)
Charlie Frye (2005 Browns 3rd)
Chris Weinke (2001 4th rounder, and Heisman winner was 29)
Chad Pennington (2000 Jets 1st, was 24, and didn't start until 3rd season)
Akili Smith (1999 Cinci 3rd overall pick, turned 25 during rookie season)
Jim Druckenmiller (1997 SF 1st)
Dan McGwire (1991 Seattle 1st, ahead of Brett Favre no less, was 24 as a rookie)
I can see those as items to take under consideration however I believe the majority of people referencing his age when discussing the FF value are doing so as he is old rather than the age being an indicator of the the things you have mentioned.
That's certainly possible. Often times people (in FF and in life) make the right decision for the wrong reasons or the wrong decision for the right reasons.
I think if anyone is making the argument that because Hooker is 25, that he'll have a short career, is making a bad faith argument. Sighting my list above, even guys like Whitehurst and McCoy hung around for a decade plus.
The age argument for me is always about competitive advantage. Imagine if Justin Herbert was still facing college competition, because he's younger than Hooker.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sounds similar to conference being a factor, so to some degree that counters the age factor. An older guy beating up on D2 or conference USA types is different than a QB playing in the SEC. IMO - of course then we factor in his quality teammates, coaches and facilities that help big time college programs develop players faster.
At the end of the day I think they’re all factors but Hooker has the talent to succeed as a middle tier starter in the NFL.
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ChiefD
Footballguy
What I see is an older guy who didn't really generate much buzz on the scene until he won that Alabama game. And on top of that, the more I read into Tennessee's offense the more it looks like it was mainly a one read offense (someone smarter might correct me on that).
The Athletic had a great article on that this week. I think @-OZ- is right - middle tier starter. But to me even that is a stretch. I see a career backup type guy who can come in and hold the fort for awhile. Which is fine. But no way I'm drafting him in the first round with the thought he is my starting QB for the next 10 years.
The Athletic had a great article on that this week. I think @-OZ- is right - middle tier starter. But to me even that is a stretch. I see a career backup type guy who can come in and hold the fort for awhile. Which is fine. But no way I'm drafting him in the first round with the thought he is my starting QB for the next 10 years.
Chaka
Footballguy
But that usually turns out to be 50% of first round picks regardless of position.
Positional scarcity is highest at QB, so you're almost obligated to take your shot.
Yeah, he probably turns into a mid-tier starter or career backup, as do most first round QBs (don't they?) but Hooker has the physical tools to exceed that bar (I don't care if Levis or Richardson have better physical attributes, that's not the point).
Sans injury we would be talking about him with the other four QBs. Particularly as, by all appearance, it is a down year at the position.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Very good points.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Just from what I’ve seen (Not as much as some), I think his floor is Chad Henne (basically what you said) but comparisons to Sam Bradford, Geno smith and Daniel Jones have some merit.
Chaka
Footballguy
Sad but true.
We always talk about how there isn't enough talent to produce even 32 quality starters in the NFL.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I think the concern about age has a lot to do with these two questions:
A. Why didn't he blow up at a younger age, like most future elite prospects do?
B. Should his late college production be discounted by the idea that he was playing as a 'grown man' against college-aged kids?
I don't know the answer to either in this case, as I do think both questions are more than a bit nuanced - but,
C. The statistical history of such situations doesn't speak favorably either.
Add up these three thoughts and I see why his age becomes a decent/major consideration. Good luck to any team's scouting that finds enough good answers to A and B to justify stumping for Hooker despite C.
A. Why didn't he blow up at a younger age, like most future elite prospects do?
B. Should his late college production be discounted by the idea that he was playing as a 'grown man' against college-aged kids?
I don't know the answer to either in this case, as I do think both questions are more than a bit nuanced - but,
C. The statistical history of such situations doesn't speak favorably either.
Add up these three thoughts and I see why his age becomes a decent/major consideration. Good luck to any team's scouting that finds enough good answers to A and B to justify stumping for Hooker despite C.
Chaka
Footballguy
He "blew up" last season too. 3000 yards, 9.7 y/a and 31:3 TD:INT ratio.
Not sure why he left VaTech but he was a 63% passer in 300+ attempts over two seasons, at 9.3 y/a and a 22:7 TD:INT ratio.
He's always been good.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
He can’t be any worse with accuracy and decision making.
Chaka
Footballguy
And his physical characteristics don't need to be on par with Richardson or Levis to still be NFL caliber.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You can say that about many QBs.
I think he's a very similar prospect to what Desmond Ridder was a year ago. Its strange to me that one would like Hooker but not have liked Ridder. The main differences are the age and ACL tear, which are both in Ridder's favor.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Right. Plus, leaving V tech for Tennessee isn’t exactly a bad sign. It’s not like he left a good program for a small school.
I think he’s a better version of Ridder. But fairly similar.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
NFL Rookie Watch@NFLRookieWatxh
Several NFL scouts reportedly believe Hendon Hooker will end up having a “better” NFL career than Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. Many scouts believe it is a “real possibility” Hooker comes off the board 16th overall to the Commanders. Hooker said in a recent interview that he believes he’s the “QB1” in this year’s draft. Hooker also said he believes his age (25) gives him an “edge” in being a mature leader
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Best is West@best_is_west
If he didn’t tear his ACL we would have had 5 QB’s in the top fifteen easy. Draft will be fun, because a lot of these teams are lying.
Several NFL scouts reportedly believe Hendon Hooker will end up having a “better” NFL career than Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. Many scouts believe it is a “real possibility” Hooker comes off the board 16th overall to the Commanders. Hooker said in a recent interview that he believes he’s the “QB1” in this year’s draft. Hooker also said he believes his age (25) gives him an “edge” in being a mature leader
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Best is West@best_is_west
If he didn’t tear his ACL we would have had 5 QB’s in the top fifteen easy. Draft will be fun, because a lot of these teams are lying.
