Meh.  I think Mariota is a very safe, albeit unexciting QB prospect (has the makings of a dream game manager), but there are obvious language issues with asking which guy you expect to "bust or dissapoint."  It's hard to disappoint if you don't expect much out of a guy to begin with, and there's always a higher risk of that if you expect a ton.
I think Mariota has very little chance of being a great NFL QB, but a very good chance of being serviceable, and very little chance of failing outright.
Winston obviously has the tools that give him at least a chance of being a great QB, but I don't think he has the tools to fall back into a supporting role in the way Mariota does, and his various on-and-off-field issues (poor decision maker in both arenas, dumb as a brick, lacks the maturity and professionalism to dedicate himself to the craft, highly likely to face ongoing legal troubles as a several-times-already-offender) make him a gigantic bust risk. The ceiling is crazy, but the bust outcome seems far, far, far more likely.
 
				
			I think Mariota has very little chance of being a great NFL QB, but a very good chance of being serviceable, and very little chance of failing outright.
Winston obviously has the tools that give him at least a chance of being a great QB, but I don't think he has the tools to fall back into a supporting role in the way Mariota does, and his various on-and-off-field issues (poor decision maker in both arenas, dumb as a brick, lacks the maturity and professionalism to dedicate himself to the craft, highly likely to face ongoing legal troubles as a several-times-already-offender) make him a gigantic bust risk. The ceiling is crazy, but the bust outcome seems far, far, far more likely.
 
			
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  . Poor show of character on my part (don't draft me #1 overall).