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QB Jameis Winston, NYG (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter massraider
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B-Deep
Footballguy
This remains my biggest concern, granted this does point out Matt Ryan overcame this and he is no slouch:
Jameis Winston threw 18 interceptions last season at Florida State. Since 1996, only one QB threw more interceptions in his final college season and was selected in the first round. Matt Ryan threw 19 interceptions in 2007 at Boston College and was the third pick in 2008 by the Atlanta Falcons. In 16 starts as a rookie, Ryan threw 11 interceptions.
Jameis Winston threw 18 interceptions last season at Florida State. Since 1996, only one QB threw more interceptions in his final college season and was selected in the first round. Matt Ryan threw 19 interceptions in 2007 at Boston College and was the third pick in 2008 by the Atlanta Falcons. In 16 starts as a rookie, Ryan threw 11 interceptions.
cstu
Footballguy
Jameis threw INT's at a rate 34% higher than Ryan (3.85 to 2.90).
Had Ryan threw at Jameis' rate he would have had 25 INT's.
B-Deep
Footballguy
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4993/is-jameis-winston-s-college-interception-rate-a-real-problem
some interesting data in there
some interesting data in there
B-Deep
Footballguy
Winston threw an interception on 3.8 percent of his passes.
Of the 38 quarterbacks chosen in the first round since 2000, only four have been selected after posting an interception rate above three percent in his final college season. Those four quarterbacks were Michael Vick (3.7), Rex Grossman (3.4), J.P. Losman (3.3) and Vince Young (3.1). When young quarterbacks identify older quarterbacks they want to model their careers after, that’s not the type of group that usually gets mentioned.
THAT is my concern more than stealing crab legs
Of the 38 quarterbacks chosen in the first round since 2000, only four have been selected after posting an interception rate above three percent in his final college season. Those four quarterbacks were Michael Vick (3.7), Rex Grossman (3.4), J.P. Losman (3.3) and Vince Young (3.1). When young quarterbacks identify older quarterbacks they want to model their careers after, that’s not the type of group that usually gets mentioned.
THAT is my concern more than stealing crab legs
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B-Deep
Footballguy
tp be fair here is the summary, the whole article is not bashing him:
What we’ve proved so far is all of this proves very little. Winston's interceptions might be a problem, but there are examples showing the opposite stance as well. Winston isn’t destined to be a star nor can we say his tendency to throw interceptions will derail his career. Teams should definitely be concerned at the rate in which Winston turned the ball over during his last season in college, but it shouldn’t be enough to deter them from thinking he could find success in the NFL.
What we’ve proved so far is all of this proves very little. Winston's interceptions might be a problem, but there are examples showing the opposite stance as well. Winston isn’t destined to be a star nor can we say his tendency to throw interceptions will derail his career. Teams should definitely be concerned at the rate in which Winston turned the ball over during his last season in college, but it shouldn’t be enough to deter them from thinking he could find success in the NFL.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Does his Heisman year count? Maybe we should look at what changed in Jameis' football environment from year 1 to year 2.
He threw 40 TDs and 10 INTs his redshirt freshman season.
He threw 40 TDs and 10 INTs his redshirt freshman season.
B-Deep
Footballguy
was it an environmental change?
a mental one?
a mechanical one?
did teams adjust to him better?
I am not sure, but there was a drastic increase and his final year int numbers are high - and that is my main concern with him
Likely it was Winston having an elevated view of his capabilities after winning the Heisman as a frosh and leading the team to an undefeated title season. A change in scenery to the NFL should remedy that.
B-Deep
Footballguy
OR, if that is what it is, a #1 overall pick and a big paycheck could amplify it. IF he let it get to his head i don;t see money and being #1 overall as a cure
Yenrub
Footballguy
I just don’t see the laziness that you and others see with WinstonThis.Morally, I don't much care that he's a thief and a rapist. Football players are gonna rape. It'd be nice if we lived in a world where that wasn't true, but alas.
Here's why it all ruins Jameis as a prospect. We know he's lazy. We know this because even immersed in a world of finely tuned athletes given carte blanche to ignore all worldly responsibilities outside of football prep and physical fitness, he nonetheless showed up every week unprepared and fat.
Is that fixable, or just "immaturity?" Things like that can go either way.
So we have to look at the rest of the picture if we want to understand the man.
And when you look at the rest of Jameis's picture, you see entitlement, a delusional sense of invulnerability, and a total dismissiveness toward the ideas of personal responsibility or consequence.
This is one of the least likely prospects we've ever seen to continue improving at the pro level -- where all the issues that already plague him are made institutionally worse.
Tigers rarely change their stripes, but never when you reward them with untold riches for being exactly the tiger they already were.
Any team hoping for what they imagine to be Jameis's pro QB upside is only going to have a shot at it after he washes out. Entering the league, he's getting the exact opposite of a wakeup call: he's getting the most positive reinforcement imaginable for the behavior he's already exhibited.
The first team to get him is flushing a draft pick down the crapper. I don't think he'll improve after that, either, because I feel confident stating that he's too stupid to learn from his mistakes. But at least at that point there'll be a chance.
For TB or whatever team is foolish enough to draft him now? No chance.
I get that he isn’t chiseled but he isn’t Jared Lorenzen or even Russell
Him playing baseball indicates to me that he isn’t lazy, playing two sports at a high D1 level isn’t the kind of thing a lazy person would do. At least I don’t think a lazy person would do that.
CalBear
Footballguy
He threw 10 INTs on just 384 attempts, which is still a pretty high rate (2.6%). His INT rate for his college career is 3.3%.
Yeah, being drafted #1 overall and getting paid an enormous amount of $$ will really get him grounded, humbled, and hungry to work and improve!!
mr roboto
Footballguy
If you are extremely naturally gifted playing 2 sports may not be that hard honestly. The biggest issues I have with Winston wrap both INTs and off-field concerns together - he is used to getting what he wants. He thinks he's better or more important than he is. He forces throws because, damnit, I'm Jameis Winston! He acts foolish because, damnit, I'm Jameis Winston!This doesn't work out well in NFL. The best arms aren't always the best QBs. Brady, Brees, Manning. None of them have cannons. They work very hard, all the time. Brees still warms up using footwork as if he's in the pocket. Manning is insane with tape and getting WRs together outside of practice. Brady has his own personal trainer/body guru and eats like an obsessed health nut.I just dont see the laziness that you and others see with WinstonI get that he isnt chiseled but he isnt Jared Lorenzen or even RussellThis.Morally, I don't much care that he's a thief and a rapist. Football players are gonna rape. It'd be nice if we lived in a world where that wasn't true, but alas.
Here's why it all ruins Jameis as a prospect. We know he's lazy. We know this because even immersed in a world of finely tuned athletes given carte blanche to ignore all worldly responsibilities outside of football prep and physical fitness, he nonetheless showed up every week unprepared and fat.
Is that fixable, or just "immaturity?" Things like that can go either way.
So we have to look at the rest of the picture if we want to understand the man.
And when you look at the rest of Jameis's picture, you see entitlement, a delusional sense of invulnerability, and a total dismissiveness toward the ideas of personal responsibility or consequence.
This is one of the least likely prospects we've ever seen to continue improving at the pro level -- where all the issues that already plague him are made institutionally worse.
Tigers rarely change their stripes, but never when you reward them with untold riches for being exactly the tiger they already were.
Any team hoping for what they imagine to be Jameis's pro QB upside is only going to have a shot at it after he washes out. Entering the league, he's getting the exact opposite of a wakeup call: he's getting the most positive reinforcement imaginable for the behavior he's already exhibited.
The first team to get him is flushing a draft pick down the crapper. I don't think he'll improve after that, either, because I feel confident stating that he's too stupid to learn from his mistakes. But at least at that point there'll be a chance.
For TB or whatever team is foolish enough to draft him now? No chance.
Him playing baseball indicates to me that he isnt lazy, playing two sports at a high D1 level isnt the kind of thing a lazy person would do. At least I dont think a lazy person would do that.
Look at Cutler. Stafford. Bradford. Big arms. Talented. Haven't taken that next step. That's what I fear most with Winston.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Could be all of the above. His numbers certainly regressed.
The distractions could have negatively influenced his play. Maybe he let the Heisman go to his head and didn't prepare himself the same way.
It also depends how you want to look at the situation. Glass half empty (above) or half full (below):
Anyone who followed FSU last year will tell you that Jameis absolutely carried them. Sure, he made some mistakes early in games that led to those deficits, but he brought them back in every single game he needed to except the last one, and anyone watching that game with an objective viewpoint knows that loss had nothing to do with Winston's play.
FSU was a shell of the team that won the National Title. His top two WR's in a system dependent on QB/WR timing went to the NFL. They lost an explosive, good receiving RB to the NFL. Their defense was drastically worse and couldn't stop anyone.
I've heard several FSU fans tell me 2014 Jameis was better than 2013 Jameis. The talent surrounding him was nowhere near as good and he still led them to an undefeated regular season. He willed them to victories, and that kind of player is who I want my NFL team to draft.
cstu
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Little is funnier than dismissive cries of "armchair psychology."
If you've ever raised a child, you've practiced armchair psychology. If you've ever steered a loved one away from a bad crowd. If you've ever been in position to hire or fire someone. If you've ever had an adult relationship.
Once you grow up a little, that phrase means the same exact thing as "understanding people."
And just like some people are better and worse at it than others, so too with organizations.
I don't wish failure upon Winston -- or any other prospect. And I don't much care...
...except insofar as I wager upon the success and failure of NFL players as a hobby.
QB's are men in leadership positions, who have to make good decisions constantly, have to gain the acceptance and respect of their teammates, and have to be capable of fully devoting themselves. As long as they can throw the ball downfield 20 yards with a little zip, the strength of their arms matters practically not at all. As long as they can listen to their coaches and commit themselves to improving, the system they played in in college matters practically not at all.
By now, we've seen enough high ranked QB's come and go from the league that we have a pretty decent roadmap about which skills matter, and which don't; as well as which personal/interpersonal traits. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it, alas. The good teams scratch the Jameis Winstons off their draft lists before Mel Kiper ever bothers to rank them. The bad ones ooh and aah over all the wrong things.
Which is why some teams are perennial bottom feeders, and others are the Pats, Steelers, Packers, etc.
#### it. The world needs ditch diggers too.
If you've ever raised a child, you've practiced armchair psychology. If you've ever steered a loved one away from a bad crowd. If you've ever been in position to hire or fire someone. If you've ever had an adult relationship.
Once you grow up a little, that phrase means the same exact thing as "understanding people."
And just like some people are better and worse at it than others, so too with organizations.
I don't wish failure upon Winston -- or any other prospect. And I don't much care...
...except insofar as I wager upon the success and failure of NFL players as a hobby.
QB's are men in leadership positions, who have to make good decisions constantly, have to gain the acceptance and respect of their teammates, and have to be capable of fully devoting themselves. As long as they can throw the ball downfield 20 yards with a little zip, the strength of their arms matters practically not at all. As long as they can listen to their coaches and commit themselves to improving, the system they played in in college matters practically not at all.
By now, we've seen enough high ranked QB's come and go from the league that we have a pretty decent roadmap about which skills matter, and which don't; as well as which personal/interpersonal traits. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it, alas. The good teams scratch the Jameis Winstons off their draft lists before Mel Kiper ever bothers to rank them. The bad ones ooh and aah over all the wrong things.
Which is why some teams are perennial bottom feeders, and others are the Pats, Steelers, Packers, etc.
#### it. The world needs ditch diggers too.
B-Deep
Footballguy
B-Deep
Footballguy
could not disagree moreLittle is funnier than dismissive cries of "armchair psychology."
If you've ever raised a child, you've practiced armchair psychology. If you've ever steered a loved one away from a bad crowd. If you've ever been in position to hire or fire someone. If you've ever had an adult relationship.
Once you grow up a little, that phrase means the same exact thing as "understanding people."
And just like some people are better and worse at it than others, so too with organizations.
I don't wish failure upon Winston -- or any other prospect. And I don't much care...
...except insofar as I wager upon the success and failure of NFL players as a hobby.
QB's are men in leadership positions, who have to make good decisions constantly, have to gain the acceptance and respect of their teammates, and have to be capable of fully devoting themselves. As long as they can throw the ball downfield 20 yards with a little zip, the strength of their arms matters practically not at all. As long as they can listen to their coaches and commit themselves to improving, the system they played in in college matters practically not at all.
By now, we've seen enough high ranked QB's come and go from the league that we have a pretty decent roadmap about which skills matter, and which don't; as well as which personal/interpersonal traits. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it, alas. The good teams scratch the Jameis Winstons off their draft lists before Mel Kiper ever bothers to rank them. The bad ones ooh and aah over all the wrong things.
Which is why some teams are perennial bottom feeders, and others are the Pats, Steelers, Packers, etc.
#### it. The world needs ditch diggers too.
if this were the case teams worth billions would not spend millions on QB busts
we THINK we know what skills matter, but skills are one part of the equation and there's no guarantee on anyone
hell well paid well respected football people debated Manning vs Leaf, that tells you for all the science in this there is still a lot of luck
anyone who KNOWS what to expect in Jameis is a glorified Miss Cleo
Old Smiley
Footballguy
I can't remember if this name has come up in the thread, but when Doug Farrar was watching JW's tape, the name that popped into his head was Jay Cutler. Farrar's worry was that Winston's propensity to make throws that I-shouldn't-but-I'm-gonna-because-I'm-Jameis-Winston-dammit was, like Cutler's, not going to be able to be coached away.
And, he becomes a guy who, as one Green Bay DB said about Cutler (can't remember who), "If we just stand in the right place, Jay'll throw it to us."
And, he becomes a guy who, as one Green Bay DB said about Cutler (can't remember who), "If we just stand in the right place, Jay'll throw it to us."
CalBear
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
In 2014:Mariotta has like 25 fumbles that nobody ever talks about for some reason.
Mariota had 7 fumbles and lost 3.
Winston had 7 fumbles and lost 2.
B-Deep
Footballguy
should that impact my thoughts on Winston?Mariotta has like 25 fumbles that nobody ever talks about for some reason.
Brett Hundley once castrated a bull with hie bare hands, so Winston will probably be a hall of famer?
I think there is a tendency to assume there has to be a great QB in every class, so if it is not Mariota it must be Winston
maybe it is neither
When i hear people say "highest rated QB since Andrew Luck" it starts to put him in the conversation with Luck, to me as a prospect he is nowhere near that.
OF course when i try and think of great prospects since luck, well....nothing much comes to mind
Capella
Footballguy
It's odd that 2014 seems to be the only season these 2 played football.In 2014:Mariotta has like 25 fumbles that nobody ever talks about for some reason.
Mariota had 7 fumbles and lost 3.
Winston had 7 fumbles and lost 2.
massraider
Footballguy
Oh, Jameis played in 2013? How'd he do?
cstu
Footballguy
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Old Smiley
Footballguy
He wasn't alone in thinking the Bucs were not far away. People are still saying that, they're just more shamefaced when they do it. It's like, "I don't know, they STILL look like they're..."
lod01
Footballguy
I'll go with neither. Definitely not Winston. He screams bust. Bottom feeder teams like the Bucs are bottom feeders because they can't figure things like that out.should that impact my thoughts on Winston?Mariotta has like 25 fumbles that nobody ever talks about for some reason.
Brett Hundley once castrated a bull with hie bare hands, so Winston will probably be a hall of famer?
I think there is a tendency to assume there has to be a great QB in every class, so if it is not Mariota it must be Winston
maybe it is neither
When i hear people say "highest rated QB since Andrew Luck" it starts to put him in the conversation with Luck, to me as a prospect he is nowhere near that.
OF course when i try and think of great prospects since luck, well....nothing much comes to mind
cstu
Footballguy
There was never any non-Winston DNA on her body. The non-Winston DNA that was found was on the shorts she was wearing and was from her boyfriend from weeks before.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
jabarony
Footballguy
B-Deep
Footballguy
I think he has to be the #1 pick
I am just saying, those interceptions scare me. If the bucs are not good this year will he be forcing the ball into tight spots to try and make things happening and get picked a TON
even if he does, high INTs in the rookie season do not mean the QB sucks, but it sure isn't going to make things easier on him if he is getting picked a lot
I am just saying, those interceptions scare me. If the bucs are not good this year will he be forcing the ball into tight spots to try and make things happening and get picked a TON
even if he does, high INTs in the rookie season do not mean the QB sucks, but it sure isn't going to make things easier on him if he is getting picked a lot
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I think what the bottom feeder teams like the Bucs have figured out, assuming they take Winston, is that you can't win in the NFL without a QB.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
B-Deep
Footballguy
What i think is funny is those bottom feeders have a super bowl more recently than a lot of teams
and they did it with a crappy QB....
witht he new rookie salary structure missing on a #1 overall QB is not the end of the world, they have to take him and pray. The hard part about missing is...when do you pull the plug, you have to give tghe guy a few years.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
I'm not a Buc's fan ... I'm not not a Buc's fan either
If they draft Winston I will forever root against them ... in my mind, he's a rapist, a thief and a thug. I don't think I'm alone in that thinking either.
Buc's HAVE to know their fan base is looking at this
If they draft Winston I will forever root against them ... in my mind, he's a rapist, a thief and a thug. I don't think I'm alone in that thinking either.
Buc's HAVE to know their fan base is looking at this
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I think the Bucs will be expecting Jameis to grasp the offense quickly and throw on time with anticipation (something the Bucs didn't have in 2014) to receivers who understand the offense (something Jameis didn't have at FSU in 2014).
rustycolts
Footballguy
We wern't always bottom feeders.Most of the time yes but not always.lod01 said:I'll go with neither. Definitely not Winston. He screams bust. Bottom feeder teams like the Bucs are bottom feeders because they can't figure things like that out.B-Deep said:should that impact my thoughts on Winston?Brett Hundley once castrated a bull with hie bare hands, so Winston will probably be a hall of famer?Capella said:Mariotta has like 25 fumbles that nobody ever talks about for some reason.B-Deep said:
I think there is a tendency to assume there has to be a great QB in every class, so if it is not Mariota it must be Winston
maybe it is neither
When i hear people say "highest rated QB since Andrew Luck" it starts to put him in the conversation with Luck, to me as a prospect he is nowhere near that.
OF course when i try and think of great prospects since luck, well....nothing much comes to mind
Proust Loves Cake
Footballguy
It's just so unfair.Capella said:Mariotta has like 25 fumbles that nobody ever talks about for some reason.B-Deep said:
Capella
Footballguy
I bet the guys who matter talked about it a lot.It's just so unfair.Capella said:Mariotta has like 25 fumbles that nobody ever talks about for some reason.B-Deep said:
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