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QB Jameis Winston, NYG (32 Viewers)

cobalt_27 said:
13 games, 3500 yards, 270/game.  Where are you getting this 4900 from?
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extrapolated for a full season...with no time missed due to injury.  He didn't finish all of his games started.

ETA: heard it on a PFF podcast I believe, didn't do the math myself

 
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Winston had 11 games where he basically played the whole game (he missed significant chunks of the @AR & @NO games, as well as 3 full games). He had 3376 passing yards in those 11 games, which is on pace for 4911. TB had 4607 passing yards for the season, so they weren't all that far off the pace. And if we take Fitzpatrick's attempts and give him Winston's YPA then it goes up to 4796.

In his first 3 seasons he ranked 16th, 16th, and 12th in DVOA (out of about 35 qualifying QBs), 19th, 12th, and 18th in QBR (out of about 31), 16th, 22nd, and 12th in ANY/A (out of about 35). So he has been a pretty middle-of-the-pack QB, on the whole, at ages 21-23.

 
pantherclub said:
I am not defending him at all but the suspension is a result of a one time offense not an accumulation of his dumb behavior.   Thats where the writer gets it wrong.  Its a bit disingenuous to phrase the article like she did.
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What we know about sexual abuse in our society is that a reported incident is way more likely to be indicative of a pattern of behavior, that never got reported before, than it is to be an isolated incident.

You've probably heard the stat that one in five women is sexually abused in college. You may not have heard the stat that only one in 20 men commits sexual abuse in college. Or that over 60% of self-reported sexual abusers self-report multiple sexual abuses, with an average of 5.8 abuses per subject (Lisak and Miller, 2002).

Over 60% of sexual abuses go unreported (actual numbers hard to find, but clearly more than half). Rates of false reports are in the 2-10% range, depending on the study you look at.

So the likelihood that the report is the result of a long-standing pattern of abuse, that someone finally was willing to step forward (over many daunting obstacles) to report, is far greater than the likelihood that the accuser is filing a false report, or that the abuse was a one-time thing. 

 
TheDirtyWord said:
Winston has an uphill battle to be the Bucs QB in 2019.  That said, some team will sign him at bargain starter prices next off-season, he’ll get the proverbial ‘clean slate’.
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I think they’ve already picked up his option for 2019. If Licht is still the GM after that season I’d expect him to sign with the Bucs on a contract containing language that gets Tampa off the hook if Jameis is suspended for any new infractions. 

If Licht and Koetter are gone all bets are off. 

 
Grahamburn said:
I think they’ve already picked up his option for 2019. If Licht is still the GM after that season I’d expect him to sign with the Bucs on a contract containing language that gets Tampa off the hook if Jameis is suspended for any new infractions. 

If Licht and Koetter are gone all bets are off. 
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I think that’s the issue.  Save for an unexpected good season (in what may be the toughest division in the NFL)...those guys are dead men walking.  They tried to replace Koetter already.

 
Grahamburn said:
I think they’ve already picked up his option for 2019. If Licht is still the GM after that season I’d expect him to sign with the Bucs on a contract containing language that gets Tampa off the hook if Jameis is suspended for any new infractions. 

If Licht and Koetter are gone all bets are off. 
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It's only guaranteed for injury.  If they want to move on they will be able to.  Also, most contracts already have language with escape clauses in them ala Doug Martin, so getting one for Winston will be a no-brainer. 

 
I can't stand this guy.  I think he's an immature entitled punk.  But with his ADP dropping due to the suspension, he will probably find my way on to most teams as a high upside guy.

 
Jameis Winston is prob one of my least favorite players in the NFL. He’s an idiot. But this is all coach speak. He is their franchise QB from an on the field standpoint. If they want to move on because of how he represents the team and his off the field issues that’s one thing - but he had a QB rating of 92.2 last year (13th) and would have thrown for 4000 yards had he played the whole season. He also had a fantastic preseason. He is their starter. He is their franchise QB (on the field). Anything else I don’t buy. 

 
lod001 said:
Tough schedule. The Bucs should be in position to fix their mistake and draft a franchise QB next year.
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I think that’s a stretch personally.

im 99.9% sure the GM is saying the right things to soften the blow on Fitzmagic.

this article has more of the GM’s quotes than anything. He gave him an “A” for the preseason performance & makes it sound like he’s trying to avoid controversy. 

"I will say this," Licht continued. "We are very excited where Jameis is right now. And he is playing -- right now in the preseason and the way he finished up last year -- he's playing to where we thought he could be. And there's even more potential there. So we're very excited about having Jamies Winston with us."
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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000957537/article/bucs-jameis-winston-not-guaranteed-to-start-week-4

the other interesting quote from the coach: 

"I think performance-wise, you'd have to give Jameis an 'A' for the preseason," Koetter said, via the Tampa Bay Times. "I don't think anybody in their right mind wouldn't say that wasn't an 'A' performance on his part. I think he handled it well. I think he performed very well. He did a really good job of working on things he needed to work on.
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considering the 1st 3 are against brutal defenses, this all seems to set up an easy transition to Winston without hurting anyone’s feels. 

 
Oh yeah - the last bit from coach would seem to telegraph this:

"The situation is what it is. I wish it wasn't that way, but it is. We're going to miss him when he's gone, and we'll be glad when he's back."
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i believe the decision is Koetter’s. 

 
Yogibear said:
Is there some type of class that the NFL offers that can help players with their personal conduct?  And if there is, maybe Jameis Winston can enroll in that in order to get his life straightened out.
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Education can't change a player's behavior (did school change yours?), but therapy can.

I am sure the Bucs have an excellent sport psychologist, but does Winston use him?

 
It isn't out of the realm of possibility to have him out until week 6.  Not likely, but possible.  If Fitzpatrick plays well the first 3 games and they're say 2-1, I could see them letting him start week 4.  It's a short week after a Monday night game and Jameis will have been away from the team for nearly a month.  Week 5 is a bye, so I could see scenarios where they let Fitz start against the Bears with Jameis backing him up.  :shrug:

If they're 0-3 or 1-2 Jameis starts week 4.

 
Jameis Winston is being sued by his former Uber driver to pay for damages that include "emotional distress as well as future therapy expenses."

Kate P. and her legal team also believe Winston still doesn't understand the impact of his actions, and they want "exemplary or punitive damages to punish and deter such conduct." The lawsuit offers "little new information" about the incident, so nothing should alter Winston's eligibility with the NFL, but he will have to answer to the suit nonetheless. Winston is eligible to return Week 4 but his starting job is very much in doubt with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing well to start the season.

Source: Tampa Bay Times 

Sep 18 - 7:43 PM
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NeverEnough said:
Winston has no value. I was laughed at when I tried to trade him for Dalton...DALTON!
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Most fantasy guys don’t typically have a lot of foresight. Winston hasn’t played, his backup is on fire, and Dalton is coming off a nice game. 

Good chance Jameis is starting after the bye week in my opinion. He’ll have the same weapons Fitzpatrick is playing with. I haven’t seen it mentioned much, and I also don’t know how much it matters now, but Jameis looked like the better QB during the preseason. 

 
I have Winston and I’m pulling for Fitz, haha. I would love to see him take them deep into the playoffs. 

Our waivers are messed up so I missed on Fitz (was gonna drop Tyrod who I picked up last week to rotate with Ben). Ended up picking Bortles back up who I initially dropped for Tyrod, meh. 

 
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Grahamburn said:
Most fantasy guys don’t typically have a lot of foresight. Winston hasn’t played, his backup is on fire, and Dalton is coming off a nice game. 

Good chance Jameis is starting after the bye week in my opinion. He’ll have the same weapons Fitzpatrick is playing with. I haven’t seen it mentioned much, and I also don’t know how much it matters now, but Jameis looked like the better QB during the preseason. 
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He's almost surely likely a better quarterback than Fitzpatrick (I have to couch that a bit -- you don't last as long and have started in as many places as Fitz without flashing some sort of professional brilliance -- and Fitz has; it hasn't all been desperation) but given his recent brilliance you realize that Winston is much, much harder to root for on a personal level unless you're somehow tied to FSU and Florida for some ####### reason.

I think there's never going to be pure Jameis "football talk" for the football heads. Whether race has anything to do with it, I'll acknowledge that may play a factor and let others be the judge, but people don't revere Ben Roethlisberger either very much in parts outside PA and OH.  I've heard some awful chants, and sentiment is dour.  

Regardless, football talk. You go with the hot hand, like Jackson said. You don't lose your job to injury, but you sure as heck can lose it to professional conduct and personal malfeasance, and this is what a bunch of us in the thread told you and Capella way back when Winston was celebrating with crab legs at the draft. 

There's a personal conduct policy and a legal system and people have to abide it. His behavior dictates that we talk about that instead of football stuff. You can't unlink it or say it's not inextricably intwined.

I have Winston rostered in a league I'd like to win. Tough for me.   

 
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And you can lose your job to injury, even; the converse is just a nice shibboleth proffered by people who play loyal but will subsequently kick your ### out the door if you get hurt like Belichick did to Bledsoe for Brady. What needs to be seen is when Fitz regresses to the mean of his talent, what is he within this offense compared to Jameis? And right now, that seems to be an open question that, much like Keenum and Bradford and co. last year, Fitz wants to keep ahead of enough to close the door on and snag another payday and starting chance with either Tampa or another club. 

Don't forget, Keenum moved on from Minnesota once Shurmur left and the front office didn't want him -- but Shurmur loved him. I wouldn't be surprised to see them reunite up in NY in a year or so.  It's so conditional, these things. We'll never get a good answer unless Jameis goes out and uses those weapons to win SBs.  That's the only way to shut up critics, I guess. But until then, nobody outside of people with a personal or provincial (yes, I said it in every sense of the word) interest in Jameis are rooting for him to get that job back. 

 
Some Bucs’ fans (me) are rooting for him to get the job back because it’s the best thing for the franchise. So, yes, you’d be right. Granted, not all Bucs’ fans are necessarily rooting for the same things. 

I’m certainly enjoying the games much more so far this season than last. However, Fitzpatrick is likely to retire after this season. He alluded to it prior to this one. I’m hopeful the organization doesn’t fall into a similar trap as the Jets if he decides he wants to play another year. 

The best thing for Tampa Bay’s future is Jameis Winston playing good football at some point this season. 

I’m certainly not rooting for a Fitzpatrick regression, but if he does I’m glad Jameis is there. 

 
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Grahamburn said:
Some Bucs’ fans (me) are rooting for him to get the job back because it’s the best thing for the franchise. Granted, not all Bucs’ fans are necessarily rooting for the same things. 

I’m certainly enjoying the games much more so far this season than last. However, Fitzpatrick is likely to retire after this season. He alluded to it prior to this one. I’m hopeful the organization doesn’t fall into a similar trap as the Jets if he decides he wants to play another year. 

The best thing for Tampa Bay’s future is Jameis Winston playing good football at some point this season. 

I’m certainly not rooting for a Fitzpatrick regression, but if he does I’m glad Jameis is there. 
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I believe the bolded. I also think that Jameis, from what I've seen of both, is a better quarterback and better for the long-term future of the franchise. I want to see him do well and be a model citizen. For sure.

I say that because, if we're talking pure football (and I still maintain we can't totally do that given the conduct policy of the NFL) I watched Fitz's last years in NY and got to see him a lot in Buffalo, and it was just terrible. He's capable of putting up some really questionable stinkers. That's why he's a journeyman; flashes of brilliance, some definite stink. But I do root for him (Fitz). I also root for Jameis both personally and professionally, to mature into someone worthy of esteem in all senses.

 
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rockaction said:
I believe the bolded. I also think that Jameis, from what I've seen of both, is a better quarterback and better for the long-term future of the franchise. I want to see him do well and be a model citizen. For sure.

I say that because, if we're talking pure football (and I still maintain we can't totally do that given the conduct policy of the NFL) I watched Fitz's last years in NY and got to see him a lot in Buffalo, and it was just terrible. He's capable of putting up some really questionable stinkers. That's why he's a journeyman; flashes of brilliance, some definite stink. But I do root for him (Fitz). I also root for Jameis both personally and professionally, to mature into someone worthy of esteem in all senses.
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Yeah, but that’s on the jets and buffalo. This is easily the best offense fitz has played in, best weapons he’s ever had. It’s not like Winston has shown that he’s that tremendous. He’s  not someone you’re hitching your gm job to for a few years but a decent qb. I hope they stick with him- I think he deserves it if he’s winning games he shouldn’t. 

 
Snorkelson said:
Yeah, but that’s on the jets and buffalo. This is easily the best offense fitz has played in, best weapons he’s ever had. It’s not like Winston has shown that he’s that tremendous. He’s  not someone you’re hitching your gm job to for a few years but a decent qb. I hope they stick with him- I think he deserves it if he’s winning games he shouldn’t. 
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Fitz has gently intoned that. We will see. I think it's meet me halfway across the sky. He's a smart guy with a Brett Favre mentality (he's a wildly poor man's Brett Favre) who now has a ton of tools.  

We'll see. That's what I think the debate becomes. How long do we get to see?  

 
rockaction said:
Fitz has gently intoned that. We will see. I think it's meet me halfway across the sky. He's a smart guy with a Brett Favre mentality (he's a wildly poor man's Brett Favre) who now has a ton of tools.  

We'll see. That's what I think the debate becomes. How long do we get to see?  
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I think it comes down to the locker room and more specifically what people there think of Winston. If the players are behind him starting then they may make that move. But if he’s a jerk and the players are ticked that he put himself in this stupid position to get suspended in the first place then i see fitz running with it until it runs out of magic. If he comes in and they’re undefeated and they say “fitz is starting for now” how will he take that? Will he be a team player or will we see him throwing tantrums on the sideline when fitz misses on a 3rd down or throws an int? 

 
Snorkelson said:
I think it comes down to the locker room and more specifically what people there think of Winston. If the players are behind him starting then they may make that move. But if he’s a jerk and the players are ticked that he put himself in this stupid position to get suspended in the first place then i see fitz running with it until it runs out of magic. If he comes in and they’re undefeated and they say “fitz is starting for now” how will he take that? Will he be a team player or will we see him throwing tantrums on the sideline when fitz misses on a 3rd down or throws an int? 
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Yeah, your coaches have to be sensitive to what the team is feeling. It's one of the big reasons why Matt Flynn never started a game for the Seahawks (at 5 years - $55 million was it)? If the coaches are smart, they'll gauge the players' feelings. Jackson already said Fitz should start; I think he shouldn't have been so public, and I'll bet the coaches don't either.

I don't know. I'm just trying to explain in the thread why this "football talk" thing with Jameis wasn't going away gracefully, in a neat little bow. It's on a level with Gordon and Bryant and Brady and Welker (remember his four-game Molly?) and Roethlisberger and Elliott now.

PED suspensions are almost accepted within the culture. Personal conduct still remains subject to the vagaries of the commissioner's power and the players' actions and unions and constitutional protections. It's that complicated.   

 
I think it's pretty simple, as long as Fitzmagic keeps winning Winston will be on the bench and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see TB part ways with Winston at the end of the year.

 
I don't know what the Bucs will do but I would expect the decision to rest more on their long term opinion of Winston than on a "hot hand" approach. If they think he's a knucklehead who's reached the apex of his development already, they may roll with Fitz. If they don't think that, it wouldn't make sense not to go back to him.

 
Snorkelson said:
Yeah, but that’s on the jets and buffalo. This is easily the best offense fitz has played in, best weapons he’s ever had. It’s not like Winston has shown that he’s that tremendous. He’s  not someone you’re hitching your gm job to for a few years but a decent qb. I hope they stick with him- I think he deserves it if he’s winning games he shouldn’t. 
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Tremendous, maybe not as a measure of total team performance, but what's the definition of tremendous at the age of 24?  Jameis has broken all kinds of QB age records in his first three years.  1st QB ever to throw for 4,000+ in his first two seasons. Most passing yards ever before the age of 23.  3rd most passing yards ever in the first three seasons of his career.  Passed Marino for the most passing TDs before the age of 24.  To me, that's pretty damn tremendous.

And we as Bucs' fans should give up on him?  Nah.  He won't even be 25 until January.

I'm on record saying Fitzpatrick starts two more games.  After the bye you go to Winston even if the team is 4-0.  You have to see what Jameis can do with the same set of weapons and Monken calling the plays.  If Jameis starts making bad decisions, turning it over, can't move the ball, and the Bucs start losing then it's time to move on and the team has the convenience of going to Fitzpatrick for the rest of the season.   

 
Grahamburn said:
If Jameis Winston were on the open market at the end of this season what kind of contract do we think he'd get?
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We don't know. We know that one of the best receivers in football just got a fifth-round pick with a seventh return conditional in return for performance.  

And he was about to hit the open market.  

 
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I take your point and get where you're coming from, but this is no longer a "football" question. 

What's a fifth-round pick worth? 

 
People need to stop thinking that for the sake of being impolitic, this #### doesn't exist. Sorry if it ####s up a message board, but this guy has been accused of sexual assault twice. There's no getting around it. 

JAMEIS WINSTON HAS BEEN TWICE ACCUSED OF RAGING SEXUAL ASSAULT. 

 
beerbuff said:
I think it's pretty simple, as long as Fitzmagic keeps winning Winston will be on the bench and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see TB part ways with Winston at the end of the year.
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Lol he is getting 21M next year guaranteed only against injury. What are you talking about. 

 
rockaction said:
People need to stop thinking that for the sake of being impolitic, this #### doesn't exist. Sorry if it ####s up a message board, but this guy has been accused of sexual assault twice. There's no getting around it. 

JAMEIS WINSTON HAS BEEN TWICE ACCUSED OF RAGING SEXUAL ASSAULT. 
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Gee no kidding. Do you think the Bucs GM and team owners post here? None of us are making those decisions. 

 
Capella said:
Gee no kidding. Do you think the Bucs GM and team owners post here? None of us are making those decisions. 
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Right. And the guy that's breaking records is on the bench. And you want him starting and we're telling you that pure performance won't determine entertainment and billion dollar industries, for better or worse. We're actually checking your heads -- we don't need the reality check about Jameis. 

I'm no ninny about sex or sexual harassment and anybody that's seen me in the FFA knows that I'm not playing puritanical -- but that you don't get the problem with Jameis' actions -- or seem to get it; let's be kind -- makes me worry for your grasp on societal standards and where we are. And I think we've come too far. But rape and grope are always serious.  

 
I hear you rock, and I agree that it’s more complicated than “who’s the better qb.” Let’s face it though, it obviously doesn’t matter to some people if he can play. I mean we have to listen to mike Vick on fox every Sunday. The only place more forgiving than the nfl is the Catholic Church, unless you smoke weed.

 
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