Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That actually would have been much smarter, I agree.
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QB Justin Fields, PIT (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m not blaming it all on drops nor making them the excuse.
But fields had zero time to work. None. I watched way too many of those games and that was the worst OL I’ve seen in some time.
Plus for a while they tried to shackle him and make him a pocket passer which is just abjectly dumb.
The drops were irrritsting from a FF perspective. The OL was a real life disaster.
there’s a non-zero chance that the bears ruin Caleb, too.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
There you go. Please look at it objectively. He had MORE time than anyone. I don’t know what else to say.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Mac Jones looks like the guy with a complaint.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
you could respond to our points about his elite elusiveness being a bigger impact to the data signal in that graph than the "high quality" blocking. but it's ok you can repeat that he had the most time like we didn't already understand that point the first time.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
and then you follow that up with "we're onto Cincinnati, next question..."
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Fair enough. I’m responding with data and analytics instead of subjective opinion. Yes, elusive QBs will generally have more time to throw.
Here’s a data set from Fantasy Pros showing Fields also had the most pocket time in the NFL as well.
2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros
View 2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats including Air Yards, Deep Ball Passing, Pocket Time, and more. See how QBs perform across the NFL's key metrics.
www.fantasypros.com
You say his line was bad. I say he held the damn ball too long.
That’s a graph from 2022. Notice the team/QB waaaay to the left. That’s what a good QB does when they actually don’t have time to throw.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
This is an incredibly good article talking about what goes into the time to throw for a QB and compares several of the bigger names of running QBs in recent years. I would love to see Fields splits on this stuff between years 1/2 and then the leap that I am presuming based on film of year 3. Also very glowing endorsement of Caleb.
good excerpt:
This leads me to today’s topic: Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, and the importance of Time To Throw.
If you’re unfamiliar with Time to Throw as a statistic, it’s pretty basic: it’s how much time after the snap a quarterback takes, on average, to throw the football. As basic this sounds, the factors that actually go into time to throw can be somewhat complicated — is a guy taking forever because he can’t read the defense and process information quickly? Is he getting rid of the ball too quickly, passing up options down the field and checking down immediately to avoid getting hit, thus passing up big plays in the process? Or is he doing the opposite of that and passing up wide open outlet throws (thus taking an extra second) to try and force an ill-advised throw downfield?
Given all this, how do we determine what factors into each individual quarterback’s time to throw?
****
and in addition to the premise I have claimed that his elusiveness in and around the pocket took a leap in 2023, he has also always had a problem processing and holding the ball too long. Major data signal having nothing to do with the blocking. part of his leap was that he was looking downfield while scrambling and made lots of great passing plays with his feet where he might have tucked it previously. but also still struggles with holding too long.
****
another excerpt:
For three years now we’ve seen how Justin Field’s lag in processing & his tendency to hold the ball has torpedoed his development as a passer and the Bears’ offense’s ability to sustain drives after losing yardage to sacks, which has proven detrimental to his own health as the hits and injuries have piled up. We’ve certainly seen flashes of the pinpoint deep ball accuracy and aggressiveness, but his consistency lacks because on a snap-to-snap basis Fields does not process information quickly enough to get the ball out on time.
****
good excerpt:
This leads me to today’s topic: Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, and the importance of Time To Throw.
If you’re unfamiliar with Time to Throw as a statistic, it’s pretty basic: it’s how much time after the snap a quarterback takes, on average, to throw the football. As basic this sounds, the factors that actually go into time to throw can be somewhat complicated — is a guy taking forever because he can’t read the defense and process information quickly? Is he getting rid of the ball too quickly, passing up options down the field and checking down immediately to avoid getting hit, thus passing up big plays in the process? Or is he doing the opposite of that and passing up wide open outlet throws (thus taking an extra second) to try and force an ill-advised throw downfield?
Given all this, how do we determine what factors into each individual quarterback’s time to throw?
****
and in addition to the premise I have claimed that his elusiveness in and around the pocket took a leap in 2023, he has also always had a problem processing and holding the ball too long. Major data signal having nothing to do with the blocking. part of his leap was that he was looking downfield while scrambling and made lots of great passing plays with his feet where he might have tucked it previously. but also still struggles with holding too long.
****
another excerpt:
For three years now we’ve seen how Justin Field’s lag in processing & his tendency to hold the ball has torpedoed his development as a passer and the Bears’ offense’s ability to sustain drives after losing yardage to sacks, which has proven detrimental to his own health as the hits and injuries have piled up. We’ve certainly seen flashes of the pinpoint deep ball accuracy and aggressiveness, but his consistency lacks because on a snap-to-snap basis Fields does not process information quickly enough to get the ball out on time.
****
Grahamburn
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
that is fair, and I posted some data as well....Fair enough. I’m responding with data and analytics instead of subjective opinion. Yes, elusive QBs will generally have more time to throw.
Here’s a data set from Fantasy Pros showing Fields also had the most pocket time in the NFL as well.
2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros
View 2023 Advanced Quarterback Stats including Air Yards, Deep Ball Passing, Pocket Time, and more. See how QBs perform across the NFL's key metrics.
You say his line was bad. I say he held the damn ball too long.
That’s a graph from 2022. Notice the team/QB waaaay to the left. That’s what a good QB does when they actually don’t have time to throw.
he does indeed hold it too long, which has exactly zero to do with the quality of his blocking. and the original point I was getting at was that his blocking sucked. and it really did and no post here has even attempted to dispute that.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It's both you see? and his elusiveness. they all matter.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Doesn't have to be one thing or another or else. The blocking sucked AND he is elusive AND he holds the ball too long AND he made steps in all these regards but ultimately he is a running QB that is GOING to skew the data.
Their O line played like ****ing garbage man. They just did.
Their O line played like ****ing garbage man. They just did.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
What matters is can he get better at that aspect of his game? Will he even get another opportunity to do so?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
indeed. and I was really really impressed with how much better I thought he looked last year from year 2 to 3. believe me I see all those weaknesses too. I still operate under the assumption that QBs are hitting their prime around 30 or that they are quite capable of it. If they can hang around that long. but I thought he made leaps year 1 to 2 as well, so just seemed like a painful let-down for me to let him go that easily. The story I heard was they did it for *him* because they know he can compete now etc.
IDK.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Only because he scrambled and bought himself time.
This isn’t objectively. It’s ignoring context entirely.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
The pocket time number says differently, but I get it. I used to feel this way about Jameis Winston. He just needs more time…
Then I watched Tom Brady operate with the same line and receivers.
In reality Jameis just didn’t process and make decisions with the same urgency or accuracy. He’d run around. Slide. Then take a sack or throw a pick.
Elusiveness is pretty far down the list on what makes a QB great.
Getting the ball to the right guy before you even have to think about being elusive? That’s greatness.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Posted the pocket numbers too, man. 2.8. Highest in the league. From snap to pressure in the pocket.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Is there a graph that measures his super slow processing speed? Because that’s why he’ll never be a franchise, build-your-team-around-him quarterback again.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Never is a long time.
He’s 25 and processed at a high level in college.
Do you think he just forgot how to play football between college & the pros, or could this have been a coaching issue?
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Yeah. Pretty much all the ones I’ve been posting.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
There’s better pro Fields arguments to make than the college to pros thing. For starters, Haskins looked pretty good in that uniform too but was a terrible pro QB.
I’d say Fields had the same problems in college that he does in the pros. With much wider windows and less complex defenses, it’s a lot easier to overcome them.
Here are the weaknesses in his draft profile…sounds a lot like the issues he’s had in the pros. I’ll stand on “never”. He can be a guy for a stretch, maybe a season or bridge QB type, but I’ll stick with no team ever views him as the guy to build around again.
Weaknesses
- Needs to improve pocket mobility for clean launch points.
- Below-average feel for edge pressure, running himself into pressure points.
- Field vision is average in face of the blitz.
- Missed open blitz beaters in the middle of the field against Indiana.
- Gradual operation time prevents expedited release.
- Needs to release ball earlier on anticipatory throws.
- Needs to improve eye manipulation as a pro.
- Stagnant eyes invite coverage to the passing party.
- Forces receivers to slow for deep throws.
- Pet spin move as runner got him clocked against Clemson.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Yeah. Pretty much all the ones I’ve been posting.
I know lol, was just trying to distill it down to a fine point. Show me a graph measuring his brainwaves or something to really bring it home.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Anyway, I’m out before I get attacked by the Bear Brigade lol
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Don’t have that one, but putting him out there with every other starter you quickly see how much of an outlier he is and the excuse argument that it’s all on the Bears not supporting him falls apart.Yeah. Pretty much all the ones I’ve been posting.
I know lol, was just trying to distill it down to a fine point. Show me a graph measuring his brainwaves or something to really bring it home.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree to disagree. We’ll see how he looks with some good coaching in a good organization.
CHI is and has been a dumpster fire of an org.
BLOCKED_PUNT
Footballguy
I'm not really disagreeing that that is a very real possibility but I just had the thought that if this report comes out earlier it tanks any potential trade value do to me thats a possible reason this didn't "leak" earlier.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Except my contention isn’t that the Bears would have leaked it.
I’m saying if it were true, some other source would absolutely have leaked it. Ex-teammate, Dalton himself, disgruntled agent, etc etc etc.
Nothing stays secret for 3 years in the Information Age.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Agree to disagree.
I think the Ryan Poles era is far from a dumpster fire. They got a little lucky but he put them in position to do so. Think it’s an up and coming organization.
And if anyone can get the most out of Fields, Tomlin is the guy. Thought the same about Haskins actually, different personalities but both a little too much in their own worlds and needed to be reached and few do that better than Tomlin. Doesn’t mean it’s going to work though. Hope it does at least on a personal level, have my doubts about football level but we’ll see. Basically I don’t ever see him earning a starter money contract.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Then were actually in agreement
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And we’re back to being mortal enemies.
lol
J/k
No love lost. I just think he can ball.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'd still love to see the splits before/after 2023. He has gotten better at these things.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Also I'm not blaming the surrounding cast I'm praising him for his growth despite all that. And he has quite clearly held it too long at times - that's what I've been saying. It isn't possible for that to be on anyone but himself. And I also would agree that if he doesn't take *additional* steps then that processing issue will be his undoing.
But he isn't there yet and his trajectory is still game changing electric first rounder that has actually shown immense growth and whose arc is still quite positive.
And to be clear if the Bears (or the Steelers moving forward) OL were a HOF caliber OL it still wouldn't mean **** if he can't process fast enough.
But he isn't there yet and his trajectory is still game changing electric first rounder that has actually shown immense growth and whose arc is still quite positive.
And to be clear if the Bears (or the Steelers moving forward) OL were a HOF caliber OL it still wouldn't mean **** if he can't process fast enough.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The processing errors happen before pressure arrives, so the 2.8 number in pocket suffers from the same issue. Can't use elusiveness to influence that number so I will concede that point, and I do find it super surprising that the pocket number is that high amongst the NFL. But quick read and quick throws are supposed to happen quick. When they don't - because the QB is not processing quickly, pressure then arrives and again skews that signal.
But it is his problem and nobody else's.
And I swear to God if you watch the Bears passing plays last year you won't call it good blocking. But yeah anyway I think he takes more positive development steps and destroys the NFL for years to come as a Steeler. FFS.
But it is his problem and nobody else's.
And I swear to God if you watch the Bears passing plays last year you won't call it good blocking. But yeah anyway I think he takes more positive development steps and destroys the NFL for years to come as a Steeler. FFS.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Agree there, he has improved. Just think he has farther to go than he is capable of to reach that level of play or consistency.
And yeah, they could have done a better job setting him up at the start. Also don’t think it would have changed the outcome much.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
While not shifting all the blame for that off of Fields, I do think it’s fair to suggest that some of their play-calling might also shoulder some of the responsibility.
Yes, at some point he needs to throw it away. And there were those times. But at other times, he didn’t have time to throw it away. And many times he was facing 2nd & 12, 3rd & 14 because of false starts, or the OC calling he same ineffective screen twice in a row (I’m pretty sure I saw this happen last year to predictable results).
So there’s also the element of Fields probably feeling the need to make something happen. To stand tall in the pocket despite the pass rush.
The results are avoidable sacks, which make him look bad. But one could also admire the tenacity he showed.
And IIRC, this was an area of improvement, even if incremental.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Oh don't get me started on Jones and being in a dumpster fire of a situation. He didn't even have an O-coord one year. Gross.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
yeah well as much as I've ragged on my Bears playcalling, and as much as I completely agree, Arthur Smith makes me want to puke.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
This chart doesn't really tell anyone much. It doesn't tell you how the QBs mobility affects the time to throw. If you can extend plays with your legs you get more time to throw but throwing on the run is a much tougher throw to do accurately. It also doesn't tell you the type of throw the QB is making. So if Fields was just throwing a bunch of screens and short passes, his accuracy numbers would rise but his time to throw would drop. For example, Jared Goff had the highest accuracy on this chart, but his intended air yards per pass attempt was only 6.7 where Fields was at 8.0.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Yes, but why is he extending plays? Is it because he can't find anyone open or he just isn't decisive with the ball? I also posted his pocket rates several times in here. 2.8 seconds. Highest in the NFL from snap to pressure in the pocket. That rate pares out the elusiveness. People blame his line, but he's the one making the line look bad by holding the ball. And then when he did extend the play and throw it he was one of the most inaccurate passers in the game. The truth was he held the ball more than any other QB in the NFL. If he wants to get better he'll need to get better at that aspect of the game.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
From what I saw, it was a bit of both.
Reminder that DJM had a phenomenal FF season. Fields was able to sustain his production. Kmet was up & down, but had some very big games.
The Bears lacked a quality WR2-3. That’s just a fact. Mooney is a below average NFL WR. He has bad hands, lapses in concentration on wide open deep balls, and doesn’t often win contested catches, from what I’ve seen.
Maybe if you look at the stats from 2023 I’m off-base there, but I watched quite a number of Bears games & that is what my eye-test told me.
Regarding decisiveness, that OL allowed so much pressure that I would think it difficult to be decisive when he was scrambling around running for his life or looking out of his earhole.
From what I watched (granted, I did not watch every single game) the extra time Fields had, he either generated himself, or was because the defense wasn’t rushing anyone and instead dropped everyone into coverage - in the past this is where Fields would excel and take off running the ball.
But he was being coached to not do that as much. Which seems silly, considering he’s such a weapon on the ground with the ball in his hands.
Good coaching & a good OL will do that.
You can point to stat sheets all day & maybe show some number that makes the OL look better as you’re doing here - I know what I saw and that OL was trash. They couldn’t stop a stiff breeze. I don’t know if it’s sample size driven, situational, an incomplete data set, or what, but there’s no way that’s true. It’s just not possible.
It’ll be interesting to evaluate Fields if he gets a shot at starting with PIT compared to how he was in CHI. He’s a sharp kid, and the Steelers seems like an organization that will be able to coach up some good habits. He’s still a very young dude, and IMO needs guidance more than anything.
Chicago is simply not the place to develop a young QB. Best of luck to Caleb Williams. If I had the 1.01 I’d trade back for MH2 at a profit for that reason alone.
Which is exactly what the dude with 1.01 did in my 16-team SF league.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Anyone who actually watched the Bears play this season, particularly early in the year, would know that the OL was terrible. Part of that had to do with lack of talent, part was due to injury and personal issues, and some of it was just downright lack of preparedness. The IOL, in particular was comical. In fairness, the line got better as the season progressed and they had time to gel together. Even so, they were a below average unit. I think the unit itself will be in the 12-17 range this year, marginally better and hopefully more prepared going into the season than the product that Getsy put on the field.
As for Fields, I think his play in 2023 (admittedly a good deal better than 2022) was hampered by a lack of trust in the OL particularly in the interior. Justin developed a bad habit of drifting to his left in the pocket IMO because the RG (Nate Davis) and C (Cody Whitehair and Lucas Patrick) were terrible early on. Yes, he holds onto the ball more than he should. Yes he has footwork issues. Yes, he often got indecisive when the protection broke down. Those are things that can be fixed with good coaching and, I suspect, a decent interior OL. I'm not a Steelers fan, but I'm excited to see him go to an organization that has some really good coaching and culture in place. And as a Bears fan, I can only hope that the organization is following Poles' lead into some culture change. That one is TBD, though.
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I'm not saying the Bears made a sound or wrong decision in letting Justin go. I think Justin has played better each season. Still, I get the decision to go with Caleb Williams if you think he is better and will be much better than Justin in two years and getting to reset the QB contract by drafting Williams; that said, I do believe Justin can be a franchise QB for someone. He has cleaned up a lot and has more to do, but the progress seems to be happening each season. I'm not talking about win/loss or analytics, but what I have seen. Justin wants to be great, and hopefully, he is in a good place in Pittsburgh and gets a shot to show what he can do. In fantasy, he is a no-brainer when he is on the field. Nobody in the position runs like Justin.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Like Bateman, i’ve been getting offers in the 2 SF leagues I have Fields. Also nothing worth accepting, but it seems like others agree with your take here that he could become a thing.
He’s certainly in the right place for it.
Its very possible (likely) this ends up being a win-win for the Bears and Fields. Bears get a better QB, who reset the rookie contract, and Fields gets a team that is more patient, and has a much better track record of developing players.
I do think its very likely Fields starts this year, he brings more to the table than Wilson does at this stage. I 100% think if Fields was the Steelers QB last year, they are a more dangerous team in the playoffs, though they were probably still losing to Buffalo.
One thing I will say, and I think I said it in the Pickens thread, is that Fields will absolutely trust his guy to make a play downfield. DJ Moore got a lot of 50-50 balls last year, as did Darnell Mooney (to Fields detriment) Pickens might be able to do a lot with those. I think Pickens owners should be rooting for Fields to get the job, though either Fields or Wilson is probably better than Pickett/Rudolph/Trubisky.
Big Nate
Footballguy
For those looking to take a shot on Fields what are people paying (in SF/2QB)? If you have Fields and are looking to sell what is a reasonable price you are looking at?
I think I want to get some Fields shares. I think he ends up starting sometime this year. Could flip him later for a bit of a profit or keep him as a playoff QB that can give you some crazy rushing stats.
I think I want to get some Fields shares. I think he ends up starting sometime this year. Could flip him later for a bit of a profit or keep him as a playoff QB that can give you some crazy rushing stats.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I wouldn’t sell for less than a 1st. Maybe more.
Folks sending me offers don’t want to pay more than a couple of 2nds. Same story in a 12-team SF & a 16 team SF.
It’s an impasse.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
My threshold is probably the same thing I paid for Howell, a mid to high 2nd. Both have promise, both have significant flaws, and both are in good situations. Either could start as soon as week 1 or be out of the league in 2 years. I could see paying a (late) future 1st for Fields if your league scoring skews heavy towards running QBs.
Statorama
gangster
My two cents is that the root of it all is that he's just not passionate about football. He's super talented at it and has had a lot of success doing it. He seems like a super nice guy and one of those "yes coach/sir, no coach/sir" kind of guys that tries real hard to do what he's told. But he doesn't strike me as the guy that comes off the field on fourth down that can't wait to get back out there. He's like a violinist that can play all the notes, but he doesn't love it like that guy from the Zac Brown band that puts some stank on it.
He desperately needed a change of scenery and a fresh start. He's a young guy with promise, and the Steeler fans love them some backup QB. The weight of the world is no longer on his shoulders, and I think that will do him some good.
If he fails his second chance as a starter, there's a rosy future with him as a Josh Dobbs type moving around the league. If Nate Peterman can draw a paycheck for 7 years, there's gotta be a bench spot for someone like Justin.
He's got an arm like Marino and legs like Vick, so I'm holding my shares hoping Tomlin can turn him around. Thoughts and prayers.
He desperately needed a change of scenery and a fresh start. He's a young guy with promise, and the Steeler fans love them some backup QB. The weight of the world is no longer on his shoulders, and I think that will do him some good.
If he fails his second chance as a starter, there's a rosy future with him as a Josh Dobbs type moving around the league. If Nate Peterman can draw a paycheck for 7 years, there's gotta be a bench spot for someone like Justin.
He's got an arm like Marino and legs like Vick, so I'm holding my shares hoping Tomlin can turn him around. Thoughts and prayers.
