Lamar Jackson is 4th in the NFL in passer rating. He’s tied for first in passing tds. He’s 9th in rushing yards. He has more tds by himself than all but 4 teams have TOTAL. At this pace he would throw for 47 tds (17 picks) while rushing for 1330 and 8.5 tds. That’s a blistering start.
I'll meet you where you're at, let's use your (very flawed IMO) logic here for a minute. Okay, he's 4th in passer rating, so let's make him the 4th highest paid QB. I'll even ignore that he was 23rd in passer rating last year, 11th the year before, and his dreadful career post season passer rating (and record). Draw it up, I'd sign it right now, done deal. Do you see how silly that is? You can't even cherry pick things to make a reasonable argument that they should give him a record breaking contract.
The bottom line is that he's
one of the best QBs in the game, but he is not
the best QB in the game. If you pay him more (possibly significantly more) than guys who are better than him like Mahomes and Allen, you will put yourself in a competitive disadvantage to those teams in the future. That's not how elite organizations operate.
I posted those numbers to show the hot start he’s off to, not to say he’s entitled to a record breaking contract. You don’t seem to want to acknowledge how good he’s been through the first quarter of the season but he has been. If he does continue this torrid pace he has a very good shot at winning the MVP for the second time in 4 years.
The Allen and Mahomes contracts aren’t the only contracts to be used as examples. Kyler got paid after those guys and got more guaranteed. So did Russ. Carr got $40 mill a year. Rodgers got 50. Those guys certainly aren’t better than Allen or Mahomes but they got more in some ways. And Lamar should get more than those guys. He’s super talented and won a lot and the next man up to be paid which has always been a thing also.
I think the Ravens would happily give him the Mahomes contract if I’m assuming correctly that they can get out of it as soon the 140 guaranteed is burned. They and Lamar both know he comes with some risk so the guaranteed money is likely the sticking point. Then there’s the Watson deal. We can all say it’s an outlier and it should be regarded as such but Lamar is going to say you think I’m risky?!?!?, this dude can get cancelled any second and he got $250 guaranteed.
You think the Ravens will be at a meaningful competitive disadvantage if they have to pay Lamar $5 million a year more than Mahomes? Or guarantee more money? $5 million is a very small drop in the bucket and the guaranteed money only matter if he busts. Imagine the competitive disadvantage they’d be at if they had to play Huntley all year or take a chance on some late first round rookie or trade several firsts to move up to get a top of the first round qb. Maybe you get Lamar and get lightning in a bottle again but the odds are against it. The only other option to paying him a truckload is trading Lamar for a massive haul…and then hope you find a qb.
I think this comes back to the fantasy vs. NFL football perspective. Lamar is off to a killer start for fantasy, but in NFL terms, he's 2-2 and just played poorly in a huge home game against a key conference opponent that was theirs for the taking. Not saying he's having a bad year by any stretch, he's been very good, just think most fans focus on the wrong things.
Yeah, it's hard to compare all of the contract specifics since it's all so complicated. Carr got $40 mil per, but only 3 years and only between $25-$65 mil guaranteed (I use only very loosely). Kyler got a big deal for sure, but again, hard to tell what it "really" is, it's between $103-$189 mil guaranteed, which is a huge difference obviously. It's also from a franchise that has never won a Super Bowl. Wilson and Rodgers got paid, but again, between $124-$161 mil and $101-$150 mil guaranteed. That's a lot less than Lamar is looking for (if the rumors are true), and they both have Super Bowl titles. The Watson thing is the giant sticking point, and I understand why he would try to use that, but I just don't see any way the Ravens could consider it. It's a one-off from one of the worst organizations in the NFL, and I think if he had an agent, who had other clients and was talking to other GM's, he'd be able to convince him of that and they would have come to an agreement. I think the Mahomes and Allen deals are both the best comps, and that's what it seems like they're comfortable using.
It depends on your definition of "meaningful", but in general yes, if the Ravens have to pay Lamar more than the Chiefs have to pay Mahomes or the Bills have to pay Allen, it would put them at a competitive disadvantage. Obviously the direct disadvantage of having a (even slightly) lesser QB, but also less money to use on other players. You can't just think of it as $5 mil to sign a back-up either, it can be the difference between being able to pay someone $15 mil or lose them and have to settle for a lesser player at $10 mil. Call it Mahomes and Andrews vs. Lamar and Njoku, or Allen and Andrews vs. Lamar and Knox. Doesn't have to be a TE obviously or even an offensive player, it applies to any position- paying a ton of money to one player means you have less you can pay to others, which is why it's such a big advantage to have a good QB on a rookie contract. Once you have to pay them a ton, it makes it a lot harder to stay on top. You can see it in the Chiefs, they have to make a lot of difficult decisions like letting Tyreek go now that the big numbers are hitting for Mahomes.
It's not as simple as "he's really good, give him whatever he wants". If this was baseball, I'd say hand him the blank check.