QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (9 Viewers)

[massraider]

They could makes his number 20 mill this year, that's less than Moore

 

[menobrown]

This question has been answered maybe five times in this thread

Dude, you think I want to read through this entire thread? Thanks for answering, I've asked the question multiple times so I guess you don't read the entire thing either.

 

[Yenrub]

Lamar Jackson
@Lj_era8
Great CompanyView attachment 3516
Quote Tweet
Hard Rock Sportsbook
@HardRockSB
QBs in NFL history with a 96+ passer rating and 100+ pass TD in their first 61 starts:

LAMAR JACKSON
Patrick Mahomes
Dan Marino
Aaron Rodgers
Deshaun Watson

Lamar isn't a running QB. He's a great QB who can run.
------------------------
Mina Kimes
@minakimes
Fun fact: Last year, Lamar Jackson finished with a higher passer rating from inside the pocket than Cousins, Rodgers, and Brady.
Ryan Burns
@FtblSickness
With a beat-up OL and nonsense for weaponry. The dude is a serious problem. Please get him out of my division.

LMAO Hes a athlete, not a quarterback. He will never win anything unless he has a team built like the Eagles last year.

I disagree that he is not a quarterback.
They guy did win the Heisman trophy playing in a pro-style offense.
For most of his NFL career Greg Roman was his offensive coordinator. Roman has never been considered a pass happy coordinator.
I think Lamar will do just fine in any offense.

 

[Yenrub]

Baltimore drafted Jackson, the GM, HC, the coaching staff, owner all know him well

But they seem very willing to let him walk. Very interesting situation.

Jackson will play somewhere next season be in in Baltimore or wherever, and he will make more $$$$ than he ever dreamed about.

Comparison is the thief of joy. Jackson is too concerned about Watsons contract to enjoy this ride of his own.

I think it's really bigger than Lamar and is entirely about the precedent of fully guaranteed deals.

I agree with this take. The “collusion” is about the owners not wanting to give fully guaranteed contracts. I’m sure the owners have had conversations saying something along the line of “ok we all agree that no one is going to pull that ******** that Jimmy pulled with Watson ever again right?”

Lamar just so happens to be the 1st guy to allegedly ask for one since Watson received it.

 

[Chaka]

This question has been answered maybe five times in this thread

Dude, you think I want to read through this entire thread? Thanks for answering, I've asked the question multiple times so I guess you don't read the entire thing either.

LOL. Good point.

 

[Chaka]

Baltimore drafted Jackson, the GM, HC, the coaching staff, owner all know him well

But they seem very willing to let him walk. Very interesting situation.

Jackson will play somewhere next season be in in Baltimore or wherever, and he will make more $$$$ than he ever dreamed about.

Comparison is the thief of joy. Jackson is too concerned about Watsons contract to enjoy this ride of his own.

I think it's really bigger than Lamar and is entirely about the precedent of fully guaranteed deals.

I agree with this take. The “collusion” is about the owners not wanting to give fully guaranteed contracts. I’m sure the owners have had conversations saying something along the line of “ok we all agree that no one is going to pull that ******** that Jimmy pulled with Watson ever again right?”

Lamar just so happens to be the 1st guy to allegedly ask for one since Watson received it.

Maybe but I think we need to wait until the Burrow contract comes down before we'll really know.

 

[Anarchy99]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Cap savings is not enough of a reason to trade MORE for an unproven commodity. Much more, than a 26 year old good QB.

It isn't just cap savings. They literally couldn't afford Jackson. They were only a few million under the cap before trading Moore.

ETA: Without doing major cap restructuring (like Brees era Saints level) the only teams likely looking for a QB that can afford Lamar are the Raiders, Falcons, and Patriots.

Just because a QB signs a huge contract doesn’t mean the team can’t play with the salary cap numbers. CLE only took a $9M cap charge last year for Watson.

 

[Chaka]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Cap savings is not enough of a reason to trade MORE for an unproven commodity. Much more, than a 26 year old good QB.

It isn't just cap savings. They literally couldn't afford Jackson. They were only a few million under the cap before trading Moore.

ETA: Without doing major cap restructuring (like Brees era Saints level) the only teams likely looking for a QB that can afford Lamar are the Raiders, Falcons, and Patriots.

Just because a QB signs a huge contract doesn’t mean the team can’t play with the salary cap numbers. CLE only took a $9M cap charge last year for Watson.

The larger point is correct but the Browns deal wasn't about cap savings so much as it was another concession to Deshaun to prevent him losing too much from missed game checks due to the suspension.

His base salary was about $400k with about $8 million signing bonus. The next four seasons his cap hit is about $55 million.

The Browns can convert salary to bonuses in future years to spread out the cap hit but, eventually the bill comes due. Just ask the Rams and Buccaneers.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Cap savings is not enough of a reason to trade MORE for an unproven commodity. Much more, than a 26 year old good QB.

It isn't just cap savings. They literally couldn't afford Jackson. They were only a few million under the cap before trading Moore.

ETA: Without doing major cap restructuring (like Brees era Saints level) the only teams likely looking for a QB that can afford Lamar are the Raiders, Falcons, and Patriots.

Just because a QB signs a huge contract doesn’t mean the team can’t play with the salary cap numbers. CLE only took a $9M cap charge last year for Watson.

The larger point is correct but the Browns deal wasn't about cap savings so much as it was another concession to Deshaun to prevent him losing too much from missed game checks due to the suspension.

His base salary was about $400k with about $8 million signing bonus. The next four seasons his cap hit is about $55 million.

The Browns can convert salary to bonuses in future years to spread out the cap hit but, eventually the bill comes due. Just ask the Rams and Buccaneers.

You might have to speak up as they are probably distracted by that shiny silver trophy in front of them.

 

[Chaka]

Two 1sts (incl. #9 overall 2023 and what will likely be a top-15, perhaps even realistically a top-10 or top-5 pick in 2024) + two 2nds + DJ Moore (who supposedly GB recently offered a 2023 1st for) ... all for a rookie QB,

But no one wants to bid on Lamar freaking Jackson? GTFO

Rookie QB's aren't getting 250+ million guaranteed contracts.

Its apples to oranges comparing what Carolina did, to if they had traded for Lamar.

Cap savings is not enough of a reason to trade MORE for an unproven commodity. Much more, than a 26 year old good QB.

It isn't just cap savings. They literally couldn't afford Jackson. They were only a few million under the cap before trading Moore.

ETA: Without doing major cap restructuring (like Brees era Saints level) the only teams likely looking for a QB that can afford Lamar are the Raiders, Falcons, and Patriots.

Just because a QB signs a huge contract doesn’t mean the team can’t play with the salary cap numbers. CLE only took a $9M cap charge last year for Watson.

The larger point is correct but the Browns deal wasn't about cap savings so much as it was another concession to Deshaun to prevent him losing too much from missed game checks due to the suspension.

His base salary was about $400k with about $8 million signing bonus. The next four seasons his cap hit is about $55 million.

The Browns can convert salary to bonuses in future years to spread out the cap hit but, eventually the bill comes due. Just ask the Rams and Buccaneers.

You might have to speak up as they are probably distracted by that shiny silver trophy in front of them.

 

[metoo]

These discussions are fun but there is too much overthinking going on. Lamar is NFL MVP elite. Deserves a monster guaranteed contract from a team willing to step up.

The Ravens took advantage of his rookie contract and earned the hit of Lamar not playing in the last several games of 2022. Lamar was wise to ensure he would go into these negotiations healthy.

This thread shows us everything wrong with us.
My popcorn will continue to popcorn.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The larger point is correct but the Browns deal wasn't about cap savings so much as it was another concession to Deshaun to prevent him losing too much from missed game checks due to the suspension.

You noted a question had been addressed multiple times, this conspiracy theory has been debunked multiple times. Every NFL contract of this type has the same structure, and no one had ever accused teams of those deals, including the Browns with EVERY CONTRACT of this type that they've recently done with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, and etc. et. el... of being about trying to shield money due to suspension.
Every team, every contract of this type converts the first year into a bonus, so the player gets the money UP-FRONT, and the team saves on the cap. Makes sense on every front for all parties involved.
------
Less than 24 hours ago of such a contract that pays out salary as a bonus to save cap.
------
Cameron Wolfe
@CameronWolfe

Dolphins have restructured WR Tyreek Hill contract to convert his roster bonus & most of salary into up-front bonus that saves $18M in salary cap space, source confirms. Hill, Terron Armstead, Bradley Chubb restructured deals this week to save Dolphins about $44.5M in cap space.

 

[Anarchy99]

There are still guys 30+ at WR that are still viable options . . . Adams, Lockett, Allen, Hopkins, Thielen. Next year, Diggs, Evans, Cupp, and Cooks will all be 30. That's 10 receivers that will be 30+

Will be. Please do some research on this. And please try and see the difference between "contributing" and clearly serious decline. I don't have time to post everything I've been studying on this topic for the last few years.

I will, but don't have time now.

Thank you and I'd be happy to discuss this later in it's own thread. Like preferably in June when we got nothing else to talk about.

I had a few minutes and not surprisingly you were right about the recent few seasons (and my memory from 10-20 years ago wasn't off by much). Here are the number of 30+ year old players that scored 100+ fantasy points each season in standard fantasy scoring. That's roughly the Top 40 at either position.

    RB    WR
2022    4    4
2021    1    3
2020    2    5
2019    2    6
2018    1    7
2017    3    4
2016    6    10
2015    7    6
2014    4    10
2013    5    9
2012    2    9
2011    2    11
2010    2    8
2009    4    11
2008    5    10
2007    3    11
2006    4    12
2005    7    14
2004    6    13
2003    9    10
2002    7    13
2001    5    13
2000    3    8
1999    4    10
1998    2    10
1997    1    10

 

[popeye]

Colts need to be taking a good look at what it would take to bring in Lamar

 

[Bracie Smathers]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray is currently making an average salary of $46.1M per year.
Lamar Jackson has made just $32.4M over his ENTIRE career
---------------------
Kyler Murray has a record of 0-1 in the playoffs in his career.
19/34 for 137 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, QB passer rating of 40.9

 

[Anarchy99]

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray is currently making an average salary of $46.1M per year.
Lamar Jackson has made just $32.4M over his ENTIRE career

---------------------
Kyler Murray has a record of 0-1 in the playoffs in his career.
19/34 for 137 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, QB passer rating of 40.9

The rabbit hole of career earnings comparisons seemingly is endless.

Carson Wentz - $128.6M
Jimmy Garoppolo - $125.3M
Nick Foles - $86M
Jameis Winston - $68M
Tyrod Taylor - $65.1M
Marcus Mariota - $64.5M
Teddy Bridgewater - $62M
Sam Darnold - $49.3M
Case Keenum - $48.6M
Baker Mayfield - $48.4M
Jacoby Brissett - $42.8M
Chad Henne - $38.6M
Mitchell Trubisky - $37.9M
Brian Hoyer - $32.7M

 

[daveR]

In my opinion (which is usually worth ignoring), I'd be leery of signing an oft-injured QB to a max (to use an NBA term) contract. You never see an old running QB. They don't last and it's a vital part of his success. I'd also give more credence to "MVP" if it were given by the head coaches.

I don't think we have seen many players like Lamar. The emergence of the true rushing QB is pretty new. Also, there are 2 different types of rushing QBs. There's the Cam, Allen power runners and then there are the Vick, Lamar speedsters. At 31, Vick was still rushing for 45 yards a game. I agree that Lamar probably won't play in his mid to late 30s like Rodgers, Stafford, etc. However, he is 26 right now so I wouldn't worry about a 4-5 year deal. That should still be his prime.

As for MVP, I don't think it matters who gives it out in this case. Lamar had a historic season. If you want to argue Mahomes or Brady were better, maybe but Lamar clearly had an MVP worthy season. He led the league in passing TDs, QBR, and yards per carry. He was 6th in rushing yards, led the highest scoring offense in the league to a 14 win season. That is objectively an MVP level season.

Sometimes I have problems expressing the exact thought I have, so I appreciate your forbearance. In Mahomes, I see an elite MVP QB because he gets results every year. I'd definitely roll with him. With Lamar, I see a guy who had an incredible year in a system that suited him to a T, but, I also see a guy to whom the league has adjusted; spy him & take away the middle of the field. I also think there's a bias (right word?) from proponents of the "RPO / running QB" game that makes him elite in their eyes. Personally, I am leery of putting so many eggs in that basket & then sending him into harms way. (Is that the way NFL execs think? I doubt it.)

 

[humpback]

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray is currently making an average salary of $46.1M per year.
Lamar Jackson has made just $32.4M over his ENTIRE career

---------------------
Kyler Murray has a record of 0-1 in the playoffs in his career.
19/34 for 137 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, QB passer rating of 40.9

The rabbit hole of career earnings comparisons seemingly is endless.

Carson Wentz - $128.6M
Jimmy Garoppolo - $125.3M
Nick Foles - $86M
Jameis Winston - $68M
Tyrod Taylor - $65.1M
Marcus Mariota - $64.5M
Teddy Bridgewater - $62M
Sam Darnold - $49.3M
Case Keenum - $48.6M
Baker Mayfield - $48.4M
Jacoby Brissett - $42.8M
Chad Henne - $38.6M
Mitchell Trubisky - $37.9M
Brian Hoyer - $32.7

It's also completely irrelevant.

 

[Anarchy99]

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray is currently making an average salary of $46.1M per year.
Lamar Jackson has made just $32.4M over his ENTIRE career

---------------------
Kyler Murray has a record of 0-1 in the playoffs in his career.
19/34 for 137 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, QB passer rating of 40.9

The rabbit hole of career earnings comparisons seemingly is endless.

Carson Wentz - $128.6M
Jimmy Garoppolo - $125.3M
Nick Foles - $86M
Jameis Winston - $68M
Tyrod Taylor - $65.1M
Marcus Mariota - $64.5M
Teddy Bridgewater - $62M
Sam Darnold - $49.3M
Case Keenum - $48.6M
Baker Mayfield - $48.4M
Jacoby Brissett - $42.8M
Chad Henne - $38.6M
Mitchell Trubisky - $37.9M
Brian Hoyer - $32.7

It's also completely irrelevant.

I know. That was kind of the point. People on Twitter will find any obscure data points to compare to fuel their outrage over something.

 

[ghostguy123]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray is currently making an average salary of $46.1M per year.
Lamar Jackson has made just $32.4M over his ENTIRE career View attachment 3528
---------------------
Kyler Murray has a record of 0-1 in the playoffs in his career.
19/34 for 137 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, QB passer rating of 40.9

Guessing Kyler Murray has an agent??

 

[Apple Juice]

In my opinion (which is usually worth ignoring), I'd be leery of signing an oft-injured QB to a max (to use an NBA term) contract. You never see an old running QB. They don't last and it's a vital part of his success. I'd also give more credence to "MVP" if it were given by the head coaches.

I don't think we have seen many players like Lamar. The emergence of the true rushing QB is pretty new. Also, there are 2 different types of rushing QBs. There's the Cam, Allen power runners and then there are the Vick, Lamar speedsters. At 31, Vick was still rushing for 45 yards a game. I agree that Lamar probably won't play in his mid to late 30s like Rodgers, Stafford, etc. However, he is 26 right now so I wouldn't worry about a 4-5 year deal. That should still be his prime.

As for MVP, I don't think it matters who gives it out in this case. Lamar had a historic season. If you want to argue Mahomes or Brady were better, maybe but Lamar clearly had an MVP worthy season. He led the league in passing TDs, QBR, and yards per carry. He was 6th in rushing yards, led the highest scoring offense in the league to a 14 win season. That is objectively an MVP level season.

Sometimes I have problems expressing the exact thought I have, so I appreciate your forbearance. In Mahomes, I see an elite MVP QB because he gets results every year. I'd definitely roll with him. With Lamar, I see a guy who had an incredible year in a system that suited him to a T, but, I also see a guy to whom the league has adjusted; spy him & take away the middle of the field. I also think there's a bias (right word?) from proponents of the "RPO / running QB" game that makes him elite in their eyes. Personally, I am leery of putting so many eggs in that basket & then sending him into harms way. (Is that the way NFL execs think? I doubt it.)

Lamar's MVP season was such a shocking thing that seared into people's memories. It's hard to shake the feeling that he can't do it again if he's healthy. I agree with you, I think the playbook is out on him. He can still torch bottom ten defenses and put up eye-popping numbers in a single game, but against even average defenses or teams who get out to lead he doesn't inspire confidence in me.

 

[Yenrub]

In my opinion (which is usually worth ignoring), I'd be leery of signing an oft-injured QB to a max (to use an NBA term) contract. You never see an old running QB. They don't last and it's a vital part of his success. I'd also give more credence to "MVP" if it were given by the head coaches.

I don't think we have seen many players like Lamar. The emergence of the true rushing QB is pretty new. Also, there are 2 different types of rushing QBs. There's the Cam, Allen power runners and then there are the Vick, Lamar speedsters. At 31, Vick was still rushing for 45 yards a game. I agree that Lamar probably won't play in his mid to late 30s like Rodgers, Stafford, etc. However, he is 26 right now so I wouldn't worry about a 4-5 year deal. That should still be his prime.

As for MVP, I don't think it matters who gives it out in this case. Lamar had a historic season. If you want to argue Mahomes or Brady were better, maybe but Lamar clearly had an MVP worthy season. He led the league in passing TDs, QBR, and yards per carry. He was 6th in rushing yards, led the highest scoring offense in the league to a 14 win season. That is objectively an MVP level season.

Sometimes I have problems expressing the exact thought I have, so I appreciate your forbearance. In Mahomes, I see an elite MVP QB because he gets results every year. I'd definitely roll with him. With Lamar, I see a guy who had an incredible year in a system that suited him to a T, but, I also see a guy to whom the league has adjusted; spy him & take away the middle of the field. I also think there's a bias (right word?) from proponents of the "RPO / running QB" game that makes him elite in their eyes. Personally, I am leery of putting so many eggs in that basket & then sending him into harms way. (Is that the way NFL execs think? I doubt it.)

Lamar's MVP season was such a shocking thing that seared into people's memories. It's hard to shake the feeling that he can't do it again if he's healthy. I agree with you, I think the playbook is out on him. He can still torch bottom ten defenses and put up eye-popping numbers in a single game, but against even average defenses or teams who get out to lead he doesn't inspire confidence in me.

Is the playbook out on Lamar or is the playbook out on Lamar in Greg Roman’s offense?

 

[Ilov80s]

Sometimes I have problems expressing the exact thought I have, so I appreciate your forbearance. In Mahomes, I see an elite MVP QB because he gets results every year. I'd definitely roll with him. With Lamar, I see a guy who had an incredible year in a system that suited him to a T, but, I also see a guy to whom the league has adjusted; spy him & take away the middle of the field. I also think there's a bias (right word?) from proponents of the "RPO / running QB" game that makes him elite in their eyes. Personally, I am leery of putting so many eggs in that basket & then sending him into harms way. (Is that the way NFL execs think? I doubt it.)

Toitally agree he isn't Mahomes. There are usually only 1 or maybe 2 of those guys in the league at a time. We had Rodgers and Brady, they have been replaced by Mahomes and maybe Burrow or Allen. I agree teams adjusted to Lamar and have been able to slow him down a bit. Countering those adjustments isn't just on Lamar though, a lot of that falls on to the Ravens coaches. Teams found away to slow down Mahomes with the 2 deep safeties last year and now we see the Chiefs adjusted their offense in 2022. I have a lot of questions about Greg Roman and his unwillingness to adjust that Ravens offense and obviously the Ravens management has done a terrible job putting weapons around Lamar. Andrews is really good and Hollywood was a nice field stretcher (but I swore he dropped at least 5 long TDs his last season with Lamar) but other than everyone has been a bust or injured. Lamar will never be Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow throwing the ball. That said, he has 3 seasons in the top 10 for QBR. He also brings with him a rare rushing dynamic.

Will Lamar be able to win in the playoffs against great defenses? Can he win a playoff shootout against Allen? Will he hold up in 3 years and keep his rushing edge? Can he operate if the team gets down big early? The answer might be no to these questions. I just wonder what the alternative is? Will Levis? Jimmy G? 39 year old Rodgers? Hope Sam Darnold can pull a Geno Smith? Lamar is good enough to the be the absolute centerpiece of an offense that wins a division, gets to the playoffs and from there anything can happen. Most teams simply don't have that guy under center. We saw it this year perfectly. The Ravens were 8-4 with Lamar and 2-4 without him.

 

[Chaka]

The larger point is correct but the Browns deal wasn't about cap savings so much as it was another concession to Deshaun to prevent him losing too much from missed game checks due to the suspension.

You noted a question had been addressed multiple times, this conspiracy theory has been debunked multiple times. Every NFL contract of this type has the same structure, and no one had ever accused teams of those deals, including the Browns with EVERY CONTRACT of this type that they've recently done with Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, and etc. et. el... of being about trying to shield money due to suspension.
Every team, every contract of this type converts the first year into a bonus, so the player gets the money UP-FRONT, and the team saves on the cap. Makes sense on every front for all parties involved.
------
Less than 24 hours ago of such a contract that pays out salary as a bonus to save cap.
------
Cameron Wolfe
@CameronWolfe

Dolphins have restructured WR Tyreek Hill contract to convert his roster bonus & most of salary into up-front bonus that saves $18M in salary cap space, source confirms. Hill, Terron Armstead, Bradley Chubb restructured deals this week to save Dolphins about $44.5M in cap space.

Appreciate it and my bad for a poorly worded post. I didn't intend to imply that taking full guarantees as salary was a norm. I even posted the fact that teams regularly convert salary to bonuses to spread the cap hit in future every years. But I was unclear in my point vis-a-vis Watson.

But even Kyler and Rodgers took a mil in salary the first year of their contracts. Wilson took 2mil. Watson's was league minimum ~$400k?? That wasn't by accident.

 

[humpback]

Sometimes I have problems expressing the exact thought I have, so I appreciate your forbearance. In Mahomes, I see an elite MVP QB because he gets results every year. I'd definitely roll with him. With Lamar, I see a guy who had an incredible year in a system that suited him to a T, but, I also see a guy to whom the league has adjusted; spy him & take away the middle of the field. I also think there's a bias (right word?) from proponents of the "RPO / running QB" game that makes him elite in their eyes. Personally, I am leery of putting so many eggs in that basket & then sending him into harms way. (Is that the way NFL execs think? I doubt it.)

Toitally agree he isn't Mahomes. There are usually only 1 or maybe 2 of those guys in the league at a time. We had Rodgers and Brady, they have been replaced by Mahomes and maybe Burrow or Allen. I agree teams adjusted to Lamar and have been able to slow him down a bit. Countering those adjustments isn't just on Lamar though, a lot of that falls on to the Ravens coaches. Teams found away to slow down Mahomes with the 2 deep safeties last year and now we see the Chiefs adjusted their offense in 2022. I have a lot of questions about Greg Roman and his unwillingness to adjust that Ravens offense and obviously the Ravens management has done a terrible job putting weapons around Lamar. Andrews is really good and Hollywood was a nice field stretcher (but I swore he dropped at least 5 long TDs his last season with Lamar) but other than everyone has been a bust or injured. Lamar will never be Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow throwing the ball. That said, he has 3 seasons in the top 10 for QBR. He also brings with him a rare rushing dynamic.

Will Lamar be able to win in the playoffs against great defenses? Can he win a playoff shootout against Allen? Will he hold up in 3 years and keep his rushing edge? Can he operate if the team gets down big early? The answer might be no to these questions. I just wonder what the alternative is? Will Levis? Jimmy G? 39 year old Rodgers? Hope Sam Darnold can pull a Geno Smith? Lamar is good enough to the be the absolute centerpiece of an offense that wins a division, gets to the playoffs and from there anything can happen. Most teams simply don't have that guy under center. We saw it this year perfectly. The Ravens were 8-4 with Lamar and 2-4 without him.

Can we please stop with this? For starters, they were really 7-4 with him and 3-4 without, and that includes the last meaningless game of the season when they sat everyone and played Brown with a bunch of backups. Lamar left the game very early vs. Denver and was trailing at the time so "without" deserves that W.

More importantly, it's a very disingenuous argument. Every team with a good QB is going to very likely do much worse if that QB gets injured, that's not what the comparison should be though. It's would they be better off with the current roster including Lamar, or with a different starting QB plus additional players? They would get at a minimum 2 1st round picks (likely more), plus would have a lot more cap space available to sign multiple good players. Of course you could still argue that you think they'd be better off with Lamar, but we should at least make it an honest comparison. Pointing out their record with and without doesn't do that.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Watson's was league minimum ~$400k??

Browns say Deshaun Watson’s contract wasn’t structured to help him if he’s suspended
...Browns General Manager Andrew Berry said the contract giving Watson a huge $44.965 million signing bonus and a minimum base salary this season of $1.035 million was not intended to minimize Watson’s financial losses from a suspension. Berry said it was just a part of the Browns’ salary cap management.

 

[Chaka]

Watson's was league minimum ~$400k??

Browns say Deshaun Watson’s contract wasn’t structured to help him if he’s suspended
...Browns General Manager Andrew Berry said the contract giving Watson a huge $44.965 million signing bonus and a minimum base salary this season of $1.035 million was not intended to minimize Watson’s financial losses from a suspension. Berry said it was just a part of the Browns’ salary cap management.

Deleted

ETA: I should not have responded in this way as it is entirely ancillary to this thread.

Again, my bad.

 

[Ilov80s]

Can we please stop with this? For starters, they were really 7-4 with him and 3-4 without, and that includes the last meaningless game of the season when they sat everyone and played Brown with a bunch of backups. Lamar left the game very early vs. Denver and was trailing at the time so "without" deserves that W.

More importantly, it's a very disingenuous argument. Every team with a good QB is going to very likely do much worse if that QB gets injured, that's not what the comparison should be though. It's would they be better off with the current roster including Lamar, or with a different starting QB plus additional players? They would get at a minimum 2 1st round picks (likely more), plus would have a lot more cap space available to sign multiple good players. Of course you could still argue that you think they'd be better off with Lamar, but we should at least make it an honest comparison. Pointing out their record with and without doesn't do that.

All great points, probably better than what I said regarding record. I didn't do a good job of articulating a clear point. All I really wanted to say was the chances of getting a QB as good or better than Lamar are very slim and even though Huntley is athletic, the downside of moving on from Lamar is evident.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Guessing Kyler Murray has an agent??

He does and last year his agent was with him when Kyler removed all Arizona Cardinal images and references from his social media. After he cleansed his social media, the Cardinals turned around and cleansed him from their social media.
People tend to forget how petty contract negotiations can get even with an agent.
Cardinals follow Kyler Murray's social media cleanse with one of their own
People are ripping Larmar and that happens every time a QB wants a new contract just like with Kyler Murray. Last year RIGHT BEFORE Murray inked his contract extension all sorts of negative stories sprouted up slamming him.
This exchange sums up this tactic.
----------------------------------
Pete Smith@_PeteSmith_
Meanwhile, it's difficult not to see the carpet bombing on Kyler Murray's character and think there are some people in that organization that need someone to eat the blame while also trying to limit his options.

steelers1080​

Many times if a lot of stories come out with conspicuous timing, someone is pushing an agenda. Kyler hasn't been branded as a headache or selfish or immature for 3 years, but all of a sudden when he seems to want out of AZ all these stories come out. That doesn't mean they're not true, but the timing is a benefit to the Cards because it limits Murray's options if other teams aren't interested. Take it all with a grain of salt...

 

[Grahamburn]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray is currently making an average salary of $46.1M per year.
Lamar Jackson has made just $32.4M over his ENTIRE career View attachment 3528
---------------------
Kyler Murray has a record of 0-1 in the playoffs in his career.
19/34 for 137 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, QB passer rating of 40.9

Guessing Kyler Murray has an agent??

And was willing to sign an extension with the team that drafted him.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

And was willing to sign an extension with the team that drafted him.

Yeah, after a bitter negotiation and lots of negative 'leaked' stories.
People tend to forget how the rookie pay scale came into effect, it was primarily due to teams with high picks taking rookie QBs and having to give them enormous long-term contracts that screwed up the worst teams for decades.
After the rookie pay scale came into effect a 'few' teams hit on a rookie contract and leveraged the savings with high priced FAs so now many assume that is the way, or only way to win a SB but it's a myth.
The myth of the rookie QB contract
...the theory went, the NFL’s rookie scale allowed others to get similar performance on the cheap — and construct a more complete roster with the leftover cash. The past four Super Bowls have featured a team that fit this mold. The Eagles won with (an injured) Carson Wentz in 2018. The Jared Goff-led Rams came close a year later. The Chiefs reached the pinnacle twice with 5% and 4% of their salary-cap space allotted to football’s most important position.
Other teams, according to NFL execs, have tried to replicate that success.
...analyzed 10 years of data on quarterback salaries, experience, performance and team success.
...We hypothesized that we’d find a strong correlation between that metric — performance relative to salary — and winning.
Instead, we found a relatively weak correlation (R2 = 0.17), and a stronger one (R2 = 0.44) between QB performance alone and team success.
The takeaway, in short, is that the rookie-contract QB craze is overblown. “It's a theory,” says longtime NFL GM Bill Polian, “that works in practice if you happen to have a very good [young] quarterback. If you don't have a very good [young] quarterback, it doesn't work so well.”
...former Packers executive Andrew Brandt. "Because a quarterback on a rookie contract might be the most undervalued player in all of sports."
And so, executives say, some teams began chasing that player. They began reaching for QBs higher in the draft — on average, four have gone in the first round since 2017, up from 2.65 over the previous 17 years — and turning over franchise keys sooner. “There are no more days of sitting and learning,” Brandt says.
The problem, however, is that these teams have been chasing an advantage that is minimal and difficult to obtain.
...Success, in reality, has been fueled not by cheap QBs, but by good QBs.
“The key,” Polian says, and “the whole point” of any roster-building strategy, is to get a “top-flight” QB, no matter how, and no matter how much you have to pay. The idea that you can’t build around an expensive one, Brandt argues, is a “copout,” and simply “wrong.”
In fact, the value of the extra cap space opened up by a cheap QB barely shows up in data. Among teams who got top-tier quarterback play over the past decade — the top 20% by Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric — there was virtually zero correlation between QB salary and winning...
--------------
Great article, with some math that proves the fact of the 'myth' of the rookie QB contract.

 

[Da Guru]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray is currently making an average salary of $46.1M per year.
Lamar Jackson has made just $32.4M over his ENTIRE career View attachment 3528
---------------------
Kyler Murray has a record of 0-1 in the playoffs in his career.
19/34 for 137 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, QB passer rating of 40.9

Being drafted in the top 5 pays much better rookie contracts for all positions than #32. That is how the NFL slotting system works.

Jackson has made 32.4 million by the age of 26.

The next deal he gets wherever it might be will put him right up there.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

the value of the extra cap space opened up by a cheap QB barely shows up in data. Among teams who got top-tier quarterback play over the past decade — the top 20% by Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric — there was virtually zero correlation between QB salary and winning...
--------------
Great article, with some math that proves the fact of the 'myth' of the rookie QB contract

And yet people keep repeating it as if it were fact. Actually the last 3 Super Bowls were won by Brady, Stafford, and Mahomes. None were on their rookie contracts.

 

[travdogg]

the value of the extra cap space opened up by a cheap QB barely shows up in data. Among teams who got top-tier quarterback play over the past decade — the top 20% by Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric — there was virtually zero correlation between QB salary and winning...
--------------
Great article, with some math that proves the fact of the 'myth' of the rookie QB contract

And yet people keep repeating it as if it were fact. Actually the last 3 Super Bowls were won by Brady, Stafford, and Mahomes. None were on their rookie contracts.

Its worth noting that the losing team in all those Super Bowls had QBs on rookie deals, and 2 of those 3 games came down to the last drive.

I think the idea of you only were successful if you won the Super Bowl that year is pretty lame. If you extend it to made it to the "final four" a lot more rookie contract QBs show up, including everyone but KC this year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

the value of the extra cap space opened up by a cheap QB barely shows up in data. Among teams who got top-tier quarterback play over the past decade — the top 20% by Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric — there was virtually zero correlation between QB salary and winning...
--------------
Great article, with some math that proves the fact of the 'myth' of the rookie QB contract

And yet people keep repeating it as if it were fact. Actually the last 3 Super Bowls were won by Brady, Stafford, and Mahomes. None were on their rookie contracts.

Its worth noting that the losing team in all those Super Bowls had QBs on rookie deals, and 2 of those 3 games came down to the last drive.

I think the idea of you only were successful if you won the Super Bowl that year is pretty lame. If you extend it to made it to the "final four" a lot more rookie contract QBs show up, including everyone but KC this year.

That just confirms the main point - that there’s not only one way to do it.

 

[-OZ-]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.

interesting that the guy drafted with the last pick (the one usually owned by the Super Bowl winning team) has more wins than the guy drafted with the first pick (the one usually owned by the worst team). It’s almost like the franchise matters.

I think Lamar > Kyler but I’m more sure that the Ravens franchise >>> the cardinals.

 

[travdogg]

interesting that the guy drafted with the last pick (the one usually owned by the Super Bowl winning team) has more wins than the guy drafted with the first pick (the one usually owned by the worst team). It’s almost like the franchise matters.

I think Lamar > Kyler but I’m more sure that the Ravens franchise >>> the cardinals.

I couldn't agree with this more. A quick ranking in my head, NFL-wise I'd have Lamar QB9 and Kyler QB12, but the same tier.

Harbaugh v. Kingsbury would have a FAR greater disparity.

 

[daveR]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.

interesting that the guy drafted with the last pick (the one usually owned by the Super Bowl winning team) has more wins than the guy drafted with the first pick (the one usually owned by the worst team). It’s almost like the franchise matters.

I think Lamar > Kyler but I’m more sure that the Ravens franchise >>> the cardinals.

No doubt here. It's notable that the team with #1 is usually the team that gave up the most sacks the year before.

 

[massraider]

total TDs prior to turning 24 yrs old

87 - Lamar Jackson
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77 - Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston
76
75
74
73
72
71
70 - Dan Marino
69
68
67
66
65
64
63 - Matthew Stafford, Fran Tarkenton
62 - Cam Newton
61 - Kyler Murray
60
59 - Patrick Mahomes
58

 

[Bri]

Is it true that a team has to offer their first?
Could a team trade to get the last pick of the first round and offer that because then that meets the quota?

 

[menobrown]

Is it true that a team has to offer their first?
Could a team trade to get the last pick of the first round and offer that because then that meets the quota?

In order for a team to sign Lamar before the NFL draft they would need to possess either their own first round pick in 2023 OR a higher one.

 

[Yenrub]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.

interesting that the guy drafted with the last pick (the one usually owned by the Super Bowl winning team) has more wins than the guy drafted with the first pick (the one usually owned by the worst team). It’s almost like the franchise matters.

I think Lamar > Kyler but I’m more sure that the Ravens franchise >>> the cardinals.

The Ravens were not a Super Bowl winning team when they drafted Lamar. As a matter of fact they missed the playoffs in each of the three seasons before drafting Lamar.

 

[Da Guru]

total TDs prior to turning 24 yrs old

87 - Lamar Jackson
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77 - Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston
76
75
74
73
72
71
70 - Dan Marino
69
68
67
66
65
64
63 - Matthew Stafford, Fran Tarkenton
62 - Cam Newton
61 - Kyler Murray
60
59 - Patrick Mahomes
58

I take it you are a big Raven fan that wants Jackson to return, he probably will be back.

 

[massraider]

I take it you are a big Raven fan that wants Jackson to return, he probably will be back

I thought it was a crazy stat I had never seen before.

 

[ghostguy123]

Not talked about much, but if Lamar actually signs the tag, the Ravens could then trade him for whatever.
This is where having an agent could come in handy. If Lamar were able to agree to terms on a contract with someone, and the Ravens agree to a trade, he could then sign the tag and be traded. This could be done before the draft.
This requires a lot of communication. It will be super hard with no agent.

This is how a move could be made with a team like Houston. Baltimore may prefer pick 2 rather than a later 1st and a future 1st, or whatever trade compensation may be.
It's a way for a team with a high pick to make a move.

 

[Mitchie]

the value of the extra cap space opened up by a cheap QB barely shows up in data. Among teams who got top-tier quarterback play over the past decade — the top 20% by Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric — there was virtually zero correlation between QB salary and winning...
--------------
Great article, with some math that proves the fact of the 'myth' of the rookie QB contract

And yet people keep repeating it as if it were fact. Actually the last 3 Super Bowls were won by Brady, Stafford, and Mahomes. None were on their rookie contracts.

It's also true that those 3 QB's were all underpaid relative to their worth. These teams aren't paying Daniel Jones or Kyler Murray 40-50M /year

 

[Anarchy99]

Is it true that a team has to offer their first?
Could a team trade to get the last pick of the first round and offer that because then that meets the quota?

You guys are killing me. Has to be a #1 pick in the next TWO drafts. Cannot trade down. Has to be their own picks.

 

[massraider]

You guys are killing me. Has to be a #1 pick in the next TWO drafts. Cannot trade down. Has to be their own picks.

Or better.

If you traded for a first rounder previously, and you want to sign him, that pick has to be better than your original pick in order to use it. Small point, but it's the one caveat to what you said.

 

[-OZ-]

And in four postseason games when stats matter lost Lamar Jackson has a grand total of 3 passing TDs, 5 interceptions and nearly 5 sacks/game.

NFL Rookie Watch
@NFLRookieWatxh

Lamar Jackson was taken 32nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Kyler Murray was taken 1st overall in the 2019 NFL draft.
Lamar Jackson has racked up 125 total TD’s, won 45 games, and won an MVP since he was drafted.
Kyler Murray has racked up 107 total TD’s and has won 25 games since he was drafted.

interesting that the guy drafted with the last pick (the one usually owned by the Super Bowl winning team) has more wins than the guy drafted with the first pick (the one usually owned by the worst team). It’s almost like the franchise matters.

I think Lamar > Kyler but I’m more sure that the Ravens franchise >>> the cardinals.

The Ravens were not a Super Bowl winning team when they drafted Lamar. As a matter of fact they missed the playoffs in each of the three seasons before drafting Lamar.

Right. Doesn’t change that the ravens are a lot better franchise than the cardinals. They were 9-7 the year before, had one losing season in the previous decade and went to the Playoffs his rookie year.
Overall the ravens have been one of the best franchises in the business. Largely thanks to Ozzie.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Colts need to be taking a good look at what it would take to bring in Lamar

Excellent post

I say give it time, there's really no rush and the longer it plays out the more leverage for Jackson as far as I can see.
Just the fact he can wait until 3 days prior to kickoff week 1 without any penalty...he's come this far and he should let it play out until at least Mid-June.
Someone posted about a July 17th/Mid-July deadline to sign a real extension, that seems like an important date because all kidding aside i admire Jackson
I don't want to see him go another year without a real contract.

I believe all 31 other NFL teams should be paying close attention and should try and have at least a back up plan to acquire him if they feel he is an upgrade.
Out of those 31 teams, we can cross thru many of them but some teams that claim they are OUT...like the Miami Dolphins as an example should have their head examined for not exploring this opportunity and bringing in a QB that would instantly make Miami a Super Bowl contender, almost no doubt in my mind. And they have the weapons to exploit Jackson and what he can do to opposing teams.

I understand Tua looks great when he's upright and LJ has missed a lot of time just like Tua in recent seasons. Still feels like a massive upgrade and I feel like Jackson is a war horse, Tua not so much even though i am pulling for him to go concussion and injury free next year but that is hoping for a lot.

Indy should definitely explore the idea, I don't think all these 4 QBs being Top10 talk, only Stroud has me convince of anything. I know Young has a lot of talent but I would be sad if Miami somehow by miracle drafted him and sent Tua packing, that would feel like no upgrade whatsoever. But what in hells bells do I know?...nothing.

I like the idea, doubt Baltimore will allow him to go to any team in the AFC, just my belief but you never know. I do think someone should challenge them using the non-exclusive and get into the game of chicken that they have been doing all along with Jackson.

Cheers Popeye and thanks for letting me sound off